Load forecasting

Source: Short Term Load Forecasting by Power Procurement Strategies and Power Exchanges -Training
Program at IIT Kanpur
Question: Why is load forecasting critical in Indian Question: List the benefits of Load
Scenario? Forecasting.
Load Forecasting is critical in Indian Scenario due to the Efficient Power Procurement
following Capacity Planning
 Energy Deficit Market  Selling of Excess Power
 Significant Growth  Optimum Supply Schedule
 Continuous shift of growth pattern  Network Planning
 Technical and Commercial Losses  Demand Side Management
 Distribution Infrastructure  Fuel Mix Selection
 Metering Infrastructure  Renewable Planning
 Nascent Market Mechanism
 Regulatory Policies
 Renewable / Distributed Generation
Question: What is Load Forecasting?
Load forecasting is about estimating future consumptions based on various data and informations available and
as per consumer behavior.
Load Forecasting mean forecasting average load in kW or total load in kWh for blocks of 15minutes, 30
minutes, hour, day, week, month or year for a daily forecast, weekly forecast, monthly forecast, yearly or multi
year forecast.
It is possible to forecast load for unconstraint demand. Load Forecasting of constraint demand is trivial.
Question: What are the factor which affect load?
Factor Affecting Load
1. Weather Data 3. Econometric Factor 4. Events / Special
a. Temperature a. Residential Growth Events
b. Humidity / Rain Fall b. Agricultural Growth 5. Life Style Changes
c. Wind Speed c. Commercial Growth 6. Power Tariffs
2. Hour of the day, Day of the Week, d. Industrial Growth
Month of the Year
Question: What are the factors which affect load forecasting?
All the factors which are mentioned above also affect load forecasting.
Question: Explain Similar-day approach Method of Load Forecasting
This approach is based on searching historical data for days within one, two, or three years with similar
characteristics to the forecast day.
Similar characteristics include weather, day of the week, and the date. The load of a similar day is
considered as a forecast.
Instead of a single similar day load, the forecast can be a linear combination or regression procedure that
can include several similar days.
The trend coefficients can be used for similar days in the previous years.
Question: What is Subsidization and Cross-subsidization related to tariff?
A subsidy is a benefit given by the government to groups or individuals, usually in the form of a cash payment
or a tax reduction or reduction in payment for goods /commodities. In power sector Subsidization is the
practice of charging prices at lower rate to one group of consumers say farmers, small scale industries. The
subsidy is typically given to remove some type of burden, and it is often considered to be in the overall interest
of the public.
Cross subsidization is the practice of charging higher prices to one group of consumers to give subsidy to
another group of consumers / lower income group.
MCQ 1 marks mainly knowledge based and very short numerical 1x30=30
Mcq 2 marks –mainly numerical 2x20=40
Time: 1hr 30 minutes