Decision Science

June 2021 Examination

Answer 1
Introduction
Nemi Mehta is having 50 hectares of land close to the Junagadh, she is becoming the Giloy
and making the GiloyVati from the drugs, she is likewise spending sum on the notice and she
is anxious to intrigue to realize that is the ad is having any connection with the deals or not.
This implies is there any sure or negative connection is having on the deals of the commercial
impacts.
In the event that there is some relationship, she needs to discover the relapse investigation
likewise and she needs to discover the projected deals dependent on the given ad.
They need to see the step-by-step investigation for this examination.
The primary investigation is discussing the graphical presentation of sales of with the
promotions.
The reason for the examination is additionally that we need to watch that is there any straight
relationship exist between these two.
Appropriate Graph type which shows the direct connection b/w factors is as per the following
The following is the sales details of the various regions.

Sales ( INR 000s)

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
0 5 10 15 20 25

The following is the detail of the advertising details is as follows:

 Advertising ( TV spots per month) ( in INR, 000s)
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 5 10 15 20 25

We can see that the relationship is straight between the Advertising cost just as the sales which
has been accomplished.

The straight connection diagram is as per the following between the sales and the publicizing
cost is as per the following:

Both the sales just as the publicizing cost have been plotted as follows:

Linear relation graph

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Sales ( INR 000s)

We have plotted the chart of the sales just as the commercial and we have seen that the
diagram is moving in similar ways. This shows that there is a straight relationship is there
among sales and notice. Our subsequent examination is about the relationship coefficient
between these two factors.
The connection coefficient will disclose to us the connection between these information. Is
there are positive relationship exists or is there a negative connection exists or is there is no
connection exists between them.
➢ Karl Pearson correlation coefficient is as follows :

The formula for the Karl person coefficient of the correlation is as follows:

𝑛 ∑ 𝑋𝑌−( ∑ 𝑋 ) ( ∑ 𝑌 )
r=
√( 𝑛 ∑ 𝑋 2 −(∑ 𝑋 ) 2 )𝑋 ( 𝑛 ∑ 𝑌 2 −(∑ 𝑌 ) 2 )

Region Sales (INR Advertising (TV spots per month)

Code 000s) (in INR, 000s)
x Y xx xy Yy
1 260.3 5 67756.09 1301.5 25
2 286.1 7 81853.21 2002.7 49
3 279.4 6 78064.36 1676.4 36
4 410.8 9 168756.6 3697.2 81
5 438.2 12 192019.2 5258.4 144
6 315.3 8 99414.09 2522.4 64
7 565.1 11 319338 6216.1 121
8 570 16 324900 9120 256
9 426.1 13 181561.2 5539.3 169
10 315 7 99225 2205 49
11 403.6 10 162893 4036 100
12 220.5 4 48620.25 882 16
13 343.6 9 118061 3092.4 81
14 644.6 17 415509.2 10958.2 289
15 520.4 19 270816.2 9887.6 361
16 329.5 9 108570.3 2965.5 81
17 426 11 181476 4686 121
18 343.2 8 117786.2 2745.6 64
19 450.4 13 202860.2 5855.2 169
20 421.8 14 177915.2 5905.2 196
Sum 7969.9 208 3417395 90552.7 2472
∑X = 7969.90

∑y = 208

∑XX = 3717395

∑XY = 90552.7

∑YY = 2472

𝑛 ∑ 𝑋𝑌−( ∑ 𝑋 ) ( ∑ 𝑌 )
r=
√( 𝑛 ∑ 𝑋 2 −(∑ 𝑋 ) 2 )𝑋 ( 𝑛 ∑ 𝑌 2 −(∑ 𝑌 ) 2 )

20 𝑋 90552.7−7969.90 𝑋 208
r=
√( 20 𝑋 3417395.23 −(7969.90) 2 )𝑋 ( 20 𝑋 2472 −(208 ) 2 )

1811054 −1657739.20
=
√( 68347904.6 –( 63519306.01)𝑋 ( 49440 –( 43264)

153314.80 153314.8
= =172688.809 = 0.88781
√( 4828598.59 𝑋 6176

We have calculated the correlation coefficient between these two variables and these
two variables are positive and it is 0.88781.
This implies we can say that there is a positive relationship and having an immediate effect.
This implies as we increment the commercial expense the sales increment and as we decline
the ad cost the sales diminishes. Our third investigation is to discover the relapse condition of
X on the Y.
This implies we need to have the relapse condition of the sales dependent on the ad.
➢ Regression Analysis of sales on Advertising
➢ Regression analysis of X on Y is as follows
➢ (X-X bar) = by (Y – Y bar)
𝑛 ∑ 𝑋𝑌−( ∑ 𝑋 ) ( ∑ 𝑌 )
➢ by = 2
𝑛 ∑ 𝑌 2 −(∑ 𝑌 ) )
20 𝑋 90552.7−7969.90 𝑋 208 153314.80
➢ bxy = =
20 𝑋 2472 −(208 ) 2 ) 49440 –( 43264)

➢ = 153314.80 / 6176 = 24.82

➢ Average ox X = 398.495
➢ Average oy Y = 10.40
➢ (X – 398.495) = 24.82 (Y – 10.40)
 ➢ X – 398.495 = 24.82 Y – 258.17
➢ X = 24.82 Y + 398.495 – 258.17
➢ X = 24.82 Y + 140.325
➢ X = 140.325 + 24.82 Y
➢ Our third study of the regression equation has been calculated and the
regression equation has been found.
➢ The excel data has been as follows for the prediction.

Region Code Sales (INR 000s) Trend = X = 140.325 + 24.82 Y

1 260.3 264.43
2 286.1 314.07
3 279.4 289.25
4 410.8 363.71
5 438.2 438.17
6 315.3 338.89
7 565.1 413.35
8 570 537.45
9 426.1 462.99
10 315 314.07
11 403.6 388.53
12 220.5 239.61
13 343.6 363.71
14 644.6 562.27
15 520.4 611.91
16 329.5 363.71
17 426 413.35
18 343.2 338.89
19 450.4 462.99
20 421.8 487.81

➢ Following is the graph for the predicted V/s actual.

 Predicted V/S Actual Sales figures
700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Sales ( INR 000s) Trend = X = 140.325 + 24.82 Y

Answer 2.
The table given below is as follows for the single year age population that has been
taken from census 2011, the table which has been taken age-wise is as follows.

Popul Popul Popul Popul Popul

Age in ation Age in ation Age in ation Age in ation Age in ation
years s years s years s years s years s
1 1958 11 1998 21 2594 31 2844 41 1802
2 1725 12 1916 22 2839 32 2684 42 1751
3 1814 13 2138 23 2935 33 2696 43 1659
4 1768 14 2139 24 3601 34 2781 44 1652
5 1871 15 2096 25 4110 35 2799 45 1806
6 1888 16 2044 26 4089 36 2450 46 1460
7 1768 17 2027 27 3716 37 2142 47 1226
8 1712 18 2065 28 3702 38 2114 48 1225
9 1780 19 2013 29 3084 39 1725 49 1006
10 1862 20 2459 30 3475 40 2218 50 1454
18146 20895 34145 24453 15041
For the mean calculation, all the data has been summarized as below,

After summarization of the mean data, the mean has been calculated and the
mean is as follows:

class interval age group Mid Value (X) Population (f) X * F

1 to 10 5 18146 90730

11 to 20 15.5 20895 323872.5

21 to 30 25.5 34145 870697.5
31 to 40 35.5 24453 868081.5
41 to 50 45.5 15041 684365.5
Sum 112680 2837747

∑ 𝑓𝑥
Mean value = ∑𝐹
= 2837747 / 112680 = 25.18

Variance

∑(𝑥 − 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛)2 𝑓
VAR(𝑋) =
∑𝑓
18165815.4
⇒ VAR(𝑋) = = 161.216
112680

The data has been summarized for the standard variation and the standard
deviation has been calculated as follows:

class Mid
interval Value Population
age group (X) (f) X*F X - Xbar (X-Xbar)2 (X-Xbar)f
1 to 10 5 18146 90730 -20.18 407.23 7389639.13
11 to 20 15.5 20895 323872.5 -9.68 93.70 1957911.65
21 to 30 25.5 34145 870697.5 0.32 0.10 3496.448
31 to 40 35.5 24453 868081.5 10.32 106.50 2604303.19
41 to 50 45.5 15041 684365.5 20.32 412.90 6210465
 Sum 50 112680 2837747 1020.44 18165815.4

Standard deviation =√𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑥) = √161.216 = 12.70

Ogive graph is as follows:

The data for the Less than Ogive has been summarized and the graph has been
prepared which is as follows:

class interval age Mid Value ( Population Less than Cum.

group X) (f) Frequency
1 to 10 5 18146 18146
11 to 20 15.5 20895 39041
21 t0 30 25.5 34145 73186
31 to 40 35.5 24453 97639
41 to 50 45.5 15041 112680
Sum 50 112680

It is less than Ogive graph is as follows:

Less than
Ogive graph

120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1 to 10 11 to 20 21 t0 30 31 to 40 41 to 50

Data for the more than ogive graph is as follows

 class interval age Mid Value ( Population More than Cum.
group X) (f) Frequency
1 to 10 5 18146 112680
11 to 20 15.5 20895 94534
21 t0 30 25.5 34145 73639
31 to 40 35.5 24453 39494
41 to 50 45.5 15041 15041
Sum 50 112680

Following is the more than Ogive Graph is as follows:

More than Ogive graph

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
1 to 10 11 to 20 21 t0 30 31 to 40 41 to 50

The data for the Histogram is as follows:

class interval age group Mid Value ( X) Population (f)

1 to 10 5 18146
11 to 20 15.5 20895
21 t0 30 25.5 34145
31 to 40 35.5 24453
41 to 50 45.5 15041
The Histogram graph is as follows:

Population (f)
40000
35000
30000
Population (f)

25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1 to 10 11 to 20 21 t0 30 31 to 40 41 to 50
class interval age group

Conclusion:

We have calculated the mean and found the mean age for the details provided is
as follows,

The mean age is 25.18

And the standard deviation is 0.094. This shows that when the data for the 112680
number has been collected the mean age is 24.76 between the age of 1 year to 50
years.

The deviation which has been calculated and found to be very less and is 0.094.

Hence, we can say that the deviation is quite less.

Hence, we data are averagely divided between all the age groups and this could be
seen from the deviation also.

The graph of the histogram is also average compare to the age of 21 to 30 years
where the frequency of the data is maximum. Rest all the data are under the
average figure only.
Answer 3 a:

Calculation of the forecast when the alpha value is 0.20, 0.50, and 0.80 is as
follows:

By using the formula of the exponential smoothing is as follows:

Ft = α x A t-1) + ( 1- α ) X ( F( t- 1) )

Where the alpha value is 0.20, 0.50 as well as the 0.80

Forecast Forecast Forecast

when when when
Yea Annual ( in
Subdivision r MM) α = 0.20 α = 0.50 α = 0.80
Gujrat 199
Region 7 1068.9 1068.9 1068.9 1068.9
Gujrat 199
Region 8 1070 1068.90 1068.90 1068.90
Gujrat 199
Region 9 568.4 1069.12 1068.90 1068.90
Gujrat 200
Region 0 550.6 968.98 1069.01 1068.90
Gujrat 200
Region 1 849 885.30 1018.99 1068.99
Gujrat 200
Region 2 637.2 878.04 952.15 1028.99
Gujrat 200
Region 3 1160.3 829.87 915.09 967.52
Gujrat 200
Region 4 1005.8 895.96 872.48 925.58
Gujrat 200
Region 5 1316.4 917.93 884.22 883.10
 Gujrat 200
Region 6 1478 997.62 901.07 884.00
Gujrat 200
Region 7 1178.9 1093.70 949.35 897.66
Gujrat 200
Region 8 911.1 1110.74 1021.52 939.01
Gujrat 200
Region 9 641.6 1070.81 1066.13 1005.02
Gujrat 201
Region 0 1088.7 984.97 1068.47 1053.91
Gujrat 201
Region 1 890.5 1005.71 1026.72 1065.56
Gujrat 201
Region 2 714 982.67 1016.22 1034.49
Gujrat 201
Region 3 1118.6 928.94 999.44 1019.87
Gujrat 201
Region 4 705.7 966.87 964.19 1003.53
Gujrat 201
Region 5 622.9 914.64 965.53 972.06
Gujrat 201
Region 6 764.9 856.29 940.08 966.84
Gujrat 201
Region 7 838.01 898.19 945.43

The calculation of the MSE, as well as MAD, is as follows when the alpha = 0.20

Calculation of the MAD when the alpha is

0.20
Forecast
when
Subdivisi Annual ( Error ( At Absolute( ( At- Ft) (
on Year in MM) α = 0.20 - Ft ) At - Ft ) At - ft )
Gujrat
Region 1997 1068.9 1068.9 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gujrat
Region 1998 1070 1068.90 1.10 1.10 1.21
Gujrat
Region 1999 568.4 1069.12 -500.72 500.72 250720.52
Gujrat
Region 2000 550.6 968.98 -418.38 418.38 175038.48
Gujrat
Region 2001 849 885.30 -36.30 36.30 1317.75
Gujrat
Region 2002 637.2 878.04 -240.84 240.84 58004.21
Gujrat
Region 2003 1160.3 829.87 330.43 330.43 109182.32
Gujrat
Region 2004 1005.8 895.96 109.84 109.84 12065.26
Gujrat
Region 2005 1316.4 917.93 398.47 398.47 158781.20
Gujrat
Region 2006 1478 997.62 480.38 480.38 230763.86
Gujrat
Region 2007 1178.9 1093.70 85.20 85.20 7259.57
Gujrat
Region 2008 911.1 1110.74 -199.64 199.64 39855.14
Gujrat
Region 2009 641.6 1070.81 -429.21 429.21 184221.24
Gujrat
Region 2010 1088.7 984.97 103.73 103.73 10760.33
 Gujrat
Region 2011 890.5 1005.71 -115.21 115.21 13274.36
Gujrat
Region 2012 714 982.67 -268.67 268.67 72184.39
Gujrat
Region 2013 1118.6 928.94 189.66 189.66 35971.97
Gujrat
Region 2014 705.7 966.87 -261.17 261.17 68209.65
Gujrat
Region 2015 622.9 914.64 -291.74 291.74 85109.79
Gujrat
Region 2016 764.9 856.29 -91.39 91.39 8351.89
Gujrat
Region 2017 1024.4 838.01 186.39 186.39 34740.89
Sum -968.06 4738.47 1555814.03

∑ 𝑎𝑏𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑒 ( 𝐴𝑡−𝐹𝑡 )
The MAD = = 4738.47 / 21 = 225.64
𝑛

∑ ( 𝐴𝑡−𝐹𝑡 )( 𝐴𝑡−𝐹𝑡)
The MSE = = 1555814.03 / 21 = 74086.38
𝑛

The calculation of the MAD and the MSE when the alpha is 0.50 and 0.80 is as
follows :

Calculation of the MAD when the

alpha is 0.50
Forecast
when
Subdivi Ye Annual ( in Error ( At Absolute( At ( At- Ft) ( At
sion ar MM) α = 0.50 - Ft ) - Ft ) - ft )
Sum -1369.66 5137.42 1845305.24

Calculation of the MAD when the

alpha is 0.80
 Sum -1571.24 5161.51 1919112.25

The MAD when alpha is 0.50 = 5137.42 / 21 = 244.64

The MSE when the alpha is 0.50= 1845305.24 / 21= 87871.68

The MAD when the alpha is 0.80 = 5161.51 / 21 = 245.79

The MSE when the alpha is 0.80 = 1919112.25 / 21 = 91386.30

The alpha value of 0.20 is the relatively near to the actual values.

Answer 3 b:

The distance traveled on 1-gallon of fuel is normally distributed with a mean of 65

miles and a standard deviation of 4 miles.

The Z curve when the car travels more than 70 Miles per gallon.

The Z value for the car that travels more than 70 miles per gallon is as follows:

𝑋−𝑋 𝑏𝑎𝑟 70 −65

Z= = = 1.25
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 4

The value of the 1.25 in the Z table is = (0.8461 + 0.8485) / 2 = 0.8473

 More than 70
Normal Curve

70

Mean 65

(2) The car travels less than 60 miles per gallon

Normal curve Z curve

Less than the 60 60

65 mean
value

3:
The car travels between 55 and 70 miles per gallon is as follows:

More than
55 and less
Normal Z curve than 70

55 65 70