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New Era University

Mathematics in the Modern World


College of Arts and Sciences
____________________________________________________

STATISTICS: AN INTEGRAL PART OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

Final Presentation
Presented to the College of Arts and Sciences
New Era University
Professor Danilo B. De Guzman

A Final Course Project in


Mathematics in the Modern World

1PS-1 Group 4

Aguilar, Patricia Anne


Asaytono, Lenchie Claire
Barreyro, Jannm Elise
Catabay, Rhyza Mei
Ebonia, Angelica

June 2021

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New Era University
Mathematics in the Modern World
College of Arts and Sciences
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title Page………………………………………………………….……………..…...1

Table of Contents………………………………………………….…………..……...2

Acknowledgments…………………………..…………………….…………..……...3

Chapter I: PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND

Introduction……………………………………………….…….……….…...5

Objectives…………………………………………………..…………….…..6

Significance of the Project…………………....….………….………………..6

Scope and Limitations………………………………………….…………….6

Chapter II: METHODOLOGY

Mathematical concepts to be used....................................................................8

Source of Data.................................................................................................9

Project Output..................................................................................................10

Chapter III: PRESENTATION, INTERPRETATION, AND ANALYSIS OF DATA

Results and Discussion.....................................................................................12

Bibliography......................................................................................................22

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Acknowledgment

This paper is made possible through the help and support from our professor, parents,
family, and friends. We are using this opportunity to express our gratitude to everyone who
supported us to complete this presentation. I am thankful for their aspiring guidance, invaluably
constructive criticism, and friendly advice during the final presentation work. We are sincerely
grateful to them for sharing their truthful and illuminating views on a number of issues related to
the report.

We would like to thank Professor Danilo De Guzman for his support and encouragement.
For teaching us and sharing your knowledge with us. For helping, guiding, and checking our
paper works. Thank you for being patient, and for not giving up on us. We greatly appreciate
you.

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CHAPTER 1
BACKGROUND AND ITS PROBLEM

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College of Arts and Sciences
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Introduction

Contrary to the belief of the majority, mathematics plays an important role in Political
Science. Statistics in particular. Statistics is described as a discipline and descriptors. Statistics
pertains to the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. Statistics is a
discipline that allows researchers to evaluate conclusions derived from sample data. In practice,
statistics refers to a scientific approach used to Collect data, Interpret and analyze data, and
assess the reliability of conclusions based on sample data. Statistics are quantities computed from
data used to characterize the key features of data. The statistic is the mean or average of the data.

Statistics is an integral part of Political Science. Now that the 2022 Presidential Election
is drawing near, the help of statisticians is mostly needed for the candidates to ensure their
victory. But the help of statistics in Political Science is not limited to elections. It also plays an
important role in developing public policies, legislation, and social research. The researchers will
also provide statistical data, as a result of the survey conducted among the other students of the
New Era University to demonstrate the use of statistics in Political Science.

Objectives
The main objective of this project is to show and illustrate the connection and importance
of statistics in every field of Political Science. This presentation will mainly focus on the
application of statistics in public information, public policy, election forecasts, and social
researches.

Significance of the Project


This project will be a significant endeavor in investigating how mathematics and political
science can be related and be useful to each other. Moreover, the results of the study will be
beneficial to the following:

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New Era University
Mathematics in the Modern World
College of Arts and Sciences
____________________________________________________
Students – Students of social sciences, especially political science students will gain more
knowledge about the connection of mathematics in their chosen course/field. As political science
students and future workers in the government, we are responsible for the welfare of the citizens
and the aliens alike residing in the community. They will be able to use and apply this concept as
they study further.

Social Workers – Social workers will be able to use or apply the results of this project to their
field of work.

Professors – Professors will gain more knowledge about the connection of mathematics in
political science that they can use to teach or impart to their students.

Future Researchers – Future researchers should understand every text concerning the same topic
and study for proper guidance. This study can support factual information regarding the
connection of statistics in political science.

Scope and Limitation


This study focuses on how statistics can be applied in various fields of Political Science.
However, this paper will be limited to the use of statistics in politics and social research. The
respondents of this study are also limited to the students of the New Era University.

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Mathematics in the Modern World
College of Arts and Sciences
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CHAPTER II
METHODOLOGY

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College of Arts and Sciences
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Mathematical Concept to be used


The procedures, techniques, and materials to be used in completing the project are
described in this chapter. It contains information on the mathematical ideas to be applied, data
sources, and project output.

Statistics is the mathematical concept to be used in this project. Statistics is the study of
data collection, analysis, presentation, and interpretation. Census data and information on a
number of economic processes are in high demand by the government.

The statistical treatment used in the study is Inferential Statistical analysis wherein, one
of the two main branches of Statistics to characterize and infer about a population, inferential
statistics used a random sample of data from that group. When it isn’t practical or impossible to
examine each individual in a population, inferential statistics are useful.

We'll go over basic distributions. We'll go over the different types of variables and how
they affect central tendency, such as the Mean, Median, and Mode, as these are important
foundational building blocks of statistical inference

The three measurements of central tendency are the Mean, Median, and Mode. The
arithmetic average of a data set is called the mean. This is calculated by multiplying the number
of observations in a data collection by the sum of the numbers in the data set. When numbers are
listed in ascending or descending order, the median is the number in the middle. In a data set, the
mode is the value that appears the most frequently.

The Mean

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College of Arts and Sciences
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The Median

Median is a statistical measure that determines the middle value of a dataset listed in
ascending order (i.e., from smallest to largest value). The measure divides the lower half from
the higher half of the dataset. Along with mean and mode, the median is a measure of central
tendency.

If the total number of observations (n) is an odd number, then the formula is given below:

Median = (
If the total number of the observations (n) is an even number, then the formula is given below:

Median = ()

The Mode
The Mode is the most FREQUENTLY occurring observation or value.

Source of Data
A study conducted by Jeaneth Michelle Labis Balaba* of University of the City of Manila
2016. The use of statistics and statistical analysis on crime and criminal justice is critical in

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College of Arts and Sciences
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order for governments to be effective in implementing anti-crime programs and protect the
well-being of the population and assess the social impact of public expenditures and policies. In
an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, in the age of cybercrimes even, the
collection of reliable and comprehensive criminal justice statistics cannot be understated.
Countries collect huge amounts of data pertaining to crimes, criminal profiles, and related
socio-economic, political, and geographic profiles of different communities and the country as a
whole in order to sustain its respective criminal justice system. In many cases, the governments
undertake extensive research using quantitative or qualitative techniques or both in order to
generate the data. During the research process, statistical analysis is required to transform all
these data into useful information for effective criminal justice decision-making as well as policy
research. In this study, it only pertains that statistics and political science are intertwined.

Project Output
This project developed an info-graphic that provides understanding and more detailed
information about how statistics can be used in political science. This project gives us a new
perspective on the role of mathematics in the study of politics. The infographic includes
illustration, explanation, and application of statistics in political science or the study of politics.

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Mathematics in the Modern World
College of Arts and Sciences
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CHAPTER III
PRESENTATION, INTERPRETATION, AND ANALYSIS OF DATA

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College of Arts and Sciences
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Results and Discussions

Public Information
Public Information is important in every organization. Especially in every state. Having
the public information accessible to the public provides mutual goodwill and trust by sharing the
organization-related information with the target audience in complete openness and honesty. We
need to know how the government functions. Election polls and public opinion polls are key
tools in collecting and disseminating public information. The Pew Research Center, a leader in
conducting public research, says that the primary purpose of election polls is public
understanding.

Now that the 2022 Presidential Election is drawing near, media channels clamor for the
most current and accurate forecasts of the expected results. Statisticians develop complex models
that consider numerous dynamic factors to deliver the most likely predictions. Last February,
Pulse Asia conducted a survey among Filipino people on who will they vote in the presidential
election. And based on these forecasts, if ever the Presidential daughter and the Davao City
Mayor, Sara Duterte-Carpio decided to run as a President, she has the highest chance of winning.

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College of Arts and Sciences
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The researchers also conducted a survey among the students on who will they vote for the
next presidential election as an application for this topic.

According to the result of the survey conducted by the researchers, the majority of the
respondents will vote for Sara Duterte, followed by Bongbong Marcos. As data scientists

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discover new ways to collect and interpret data, election forecasting continues to evolve.
Forecasts are important to the general public, the news media, and the candidates.

Electronic Forecasts
Election forecasting appeals to a fundamental human desire to see into the future.
Humans have been tempted to find methods that would tell them with some degree of certainty
who would win an election since elections were invented to choose leaders.Elections' highly
quantitative nature helps them in this endeavor. Few phenomena of interest to a social scientist
lend themselves so easily to forecasting as political campaigns. They produce a clear winner in a
two-party competition and numerical shares for each of the contenders in a multiparty setting.
Electoral data has become easier to manage as statistical techniques have advanced. It is not
surprising, then, that election forecasting has become a big business for polling firms, news
organizations, betting markets, and academic political students.Election forecasting can be
divided into three categories.

Polls of the voting public are perhaps the most well-known to the general public. The
expansion of polling is providing a near-endless stream of data on candidate and party support
that can be used to forecast electoral outcomes. These forecasts are based on theories and
empirical evidence about what voters consider when making electoral decisions. Forecast models
typically rely on a few predictors in highly aggregated form, with an emphasis on phenomena
that change in the short run, such as the state of the economy, to provide the greatest leverage for
predicting the outcome of a specific election. Finally, betting markets predict election outcomes
by buying and selling candidate futures with real money.

During any election season, media channels clamor for the most current and accurate
forecasts of the peexcted results. Statisticians develop complex models that consider numerous
dynamic factors to deliver the most likely predictions. In a simple description statistic help the
Politics to engage the source and to have a simple ways to see the result of the votings in a

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government wherein election are going, The Election forecast provide the statistical value of the
votings in the election.

FiveThirtyEight, an internet initiative hosted by ABC News, for example, is on a mission


to give objective reviews of projected election outcomes. The organization has been making
these predictions for years, with increasingly advanced analytics.

Most recently, the 538 site (named for the total number of electors in the electoral
college) has developed a sophisticated model for predicting the results of the 2020 Democratic
primary. Beyond traditional forecasting factors, this new model incorporates simulations for
polling swings and state-by-state effects.

As data scientists discover new ways to collect and interpret data, election forecasting
continues to evolve. Forecasts are important to the general public, the news media, and the
candidates.

Political Campaign Strategy

Statistics also play an important role in developing a campaign strategy. Political


candidates spend huge sums of money on election campaigns. While the public primarily sees
funding spent on advertising, there are other critical – and costly – financial aspects, too. One
large chunk of spending is statistical research that leads to strategy.
Campaign advertising is the use of an advertising campaign through the media to
influence a political debate, and ultimately, voters. These ads are designed by political
consultants and political campaign staff. Now that the election is drawing near, political
advertisements can also be seen everywhere in the media. Politicians spend a lot of money on
these ads on television, and even on social networking sites. Of course, ads are one of the most
effective ways of convincing people to vote for a certain candidate as it reaches wider audiences.

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As we can see in the graph above, the spendings for the political ads increased big time as
the pandemic started. Since public gatherings are prohibited, media had become the number one
medium for political campaigns. Mathematics is really important in developing a campaign
strategy because you can monitor the sums of the money that a politician spends during an
election campaign.

Microtargeting in Elections
In this online course, “Political Analytics and Microtargeting,” you will learn how to
apply predictive modeling methods to target voters in political campaigns. You will learn which
aspects of campaigns are especially important for modeling purposes, and the difference between
traditional targeting methods and more recent micro-targeting techniques. The course covers
what to measure and how to design surveys to measure it. The role of experiments is discussed,
and you will learn how television advertising, online advertising, and social media fit in. Data
analysts who are familiar with predictive modeling and want to learn how to apply it in the

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political world. Political consultants and staff who have had some exposure to predictive
modeling, and want to dive deeper and learn how it is applied in a political campaign.

In the modern context, one aspect of campaign strategy has emerged. Microtargeting is a
technique that uses statistical methods to derive conclusions about individuals from large
amounts of data. By connecting variables in raw data, data scientists can now identify
consequential patterns that can be used to predict response to specific issues (source)

Modern political campaigns have unprecedented access to massive amounts of


information about voters thanks to big data. Unlike in the past, today's campaigns can send
tailored messages to individuals based on their preferences and interests. Microtargeting has even
been shown to increase turnout among nontraditional voters.

Public Policy

Analysis and data often are used to describe problems, programs, and policies; to assist in
monitoring programs and in making decisions that might make them more effective or efficient;
and to evaluate outcomes. Governments are responsible for making decisions to improve the
quality of life of people. To develop new policies for the sake and benefit of the people, and
never for the benefit of the officials. Governments are responsible for making decisions to
improve the quality of life of people. Statistics enable the government to use a scientific
approach to investigate all available shreds of evidence in formulating policies that are more
effective to achieve the desired outcome. Statistics provide the evidence needed to improve
decision-making, document results, and also enhance public accountability (V. Sivagnanasothy,
2015).

Let us take the issue of public health nowadays. People are arguing whether or not we
should use face shields in public places. Public opinion greatly influences the decision of the

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College of Arts and Sciences
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government officials while making necessary actions. The researchers conducted a survey on
whether or not they are in favor of using face shields in public. The data below shows the result
of the survey;

According to the data presented above, the majority of the respondents are in favor of
using face shields. As mentioned in the paragraph above, this data could greatly influence the
decision-making about implementing a new policy, of course, after careful consideration.

Economic Regulation

Economic regulation affects economies at different levels. Research needs to address its
nature and consequences at national, local (state, municipal, etc.), and international levels. Also,
although it has been common in developed countries such as the USA and UK to focus on
regulation and large firms, for example, the regulation of large telecommunications businesses,
in the context of developing countries it is also particularly necessary to consider how regulation
affects small and medium-sized firms (SMEs) and micro-enterprises because of their importance

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to the economy. Moreover, regulation can take different forms, for example of utilities, health,
and safety, labor laws, environment, etc. Regulations are often consisting of requirements the
government imposes on private firms and individuals to achieve the government’s purposes.
These include better and cheaper services and goods, protection of existing firms from “unfair”
(and fair) competition, cleaner water and air, and safer workplaces and products.

Legislation
Political scientists nowadays have such a large number and complexity of social
interactions, causes and effects, and other activity that it is impossible to avoid learning statistical
science. Political scientists are as much a part of statistical work as any other social scientist,
whether they are investigating social phenomena for legal, judicial, campaigning, or legislative
purposes, or for the purposes of developing and implementing local and international public
programs.

Political science is one of the social sciences that is most likely to require advanced
methods of studying and understanding what is going on with the largest social groups of
humans in history. They require tools for modeling possible outcomes of various conditions,
forecasting probability, and summarizing, testing, analyzing, and using data from the world's
largest databases of information in history.

Political science is one of the social sciences that deals with the legal, political, medical,
religious, military, governmental, and intergovernmental decisions that have the greatest and
longest-lasting effects on society and the world.This requires an understanding of the
geographical, demographic, economic, environmental, census and a host of other facts about
people and societies and about the interactions between people and societies.

Political scientists deal with the economic, legal, health and political impacts of disease,
for example. At the simplest level, they need data in order to make policy decisions that will

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affect many humans. Vital statistics are needed to determine the location, volume, spread and
virulence of a disease. Political scientists needdata that identifies the current situation, the costs,
benefits and impact of preventive and eradication programs, the economic and social
consequences, the political, social and religious barriers and boundaries, and the probabilities of
future outbreaks. This all requires statistical tools and resources, including complex modeling
technology and tools.

The statistics of global and regional human migration is another area that involves
massive amounts of data that is important to political scientists. Why do people migrate? From
and to where do they migrate? What is the rate, change and consequence of the migration? Do
people’s lives generally improve or decline and why? Or, are people moving to areas that are
saturated and barely capable of taking in more population?

Hypotheses that involve cause and effect would have to be tested. Probability statistics
would help to forecast the effect of changes to the drug sentencing laws on a variety of societal
factors. More data would be collected, analyzed and tested. Other social phenomena such as
people’s attitudes toward drug crimes, the effect on voting patterns and elections, and the
unforeseen social outcomes would be identified through an ongoing processes of statistical data
gathering and analysis.

Sadly, political scientists can also be expert at misusing statistics to justify decisions, for
social engineering and for less than stellar reasons. Associating cause and effect or making other
biased and unethical statistical errors can be used to support and to institute decision making that
is flawed, destructive or extreme in nature.

In summary, data provides information. Statistics allows the information to be analyzed,


presented summarized, tested, experimented upon, and modeled to test cause and effect or to
forecast probability. Political science is the engine of decisions that affect whole communities,

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societies, religions and nations of the world. The larger the numbers of people and other living
things and the more complex the relationships involved, the more there is a need for political
scientists to develop a good understanding of statistical science.

Diplomacy and International Initiatives


The International Initiative (IDI) is an independent and non-profit organization which
aims to provide students from different universities the knowledge and platform to advance
diplomacy around the world and inspires people of all ages and backgrounds to dialogue.
Diplomacy is most importantly used to complete a specific agenda. Therefore, without
diplomacy, much of the world's affairs would be abolished, international organizations would not
exist, and above all the world would be at a constant state of war. It is for diplomacy that certain
countries can exist in harmony.

Social Science Research


Social science research is a process of enquiry into social issues and social problems in
the society. Using social science research, new knowledge is being derived and new
information is obtained through a systematic and scientific procedure. Social science
research is the step-by-step manner of deriving new data on any social subject that affects man in
society.

Social science research is a method to uncover social happenings in human


societies. Through social research, new knowledge is derived to help societies progress and adapt
to change. Today, the concept of social science research has become important to researchers
especially for those in social sciences. Through social research, the social world is better
understood as ongoing, emerging, re-merging and newly emerging social problems are known.
More so, solutions are derived through social research.

Government Accountability

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In short, when it works, accountability involves a mutual exchange of responsibilities and
potential sanctions between citizens and rulers, made all the more complicated by the fact that in
between the two are usually a varied and competitive set of representatives. In democratic
societies, accountability to the people is a core value. Governments, therefore, rely on factual,
systematic information to guide decision making.

Federal statistical agencies are charged with delivering unbiased information to the public,
businesses, and governments. Government leaders use these statistics to determine funding
allocations and to guide the development of federal policies and programs. Private statistical
organizations are also an important component of assuring accountability in government.
Statistica.com, for example, calls itself the “fact destination.” The company supports a variety of
research, including public opinion on elected officials as well as policy and procedural issues.
OpenGov is an industry-leading company that provides resources for governments to build trust
with constituents. Products equip users to present complex reports, engage audiences for
feedback and then analyze that engagement

Bibliography

Regulation - Econlib. (2018). Econlib.


https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Regulation.html#:~:text=Regulation%20consists%20of%20
requirements%20the,and%20safer%20workplaces%20and%20products

S. Akinmayowa Lawal. (2019, December). UNDERSTANDING SOCIAL SCIENCE


RESEARCH: AN OVERVIEW. ResearchGate; unknown.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/345981416_UNDERSTANDING_SOCIAL_SCIENCE
_RESEARCH_AN_OVERVIEW

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Election Forecasting. (2021). Obo.
https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199756223/obo-978019975622
3-0023.xml

What Role Do Statistics Play in Politics? (2020, April 23). Michigan Technological University.
https://onlinedegrees.mtu.edu/news/role-statistics-play-in-politics

PROJECT PROPOSAL

Statistics: An Integral Part of Political Science

Group 4
Eboinia, Angelica (Leader)
Barreyro, Jannm Elise (Assistant Leader)
Aguilar, Patricia
Asaytono, Lenchie Claire
Catabay, Rhaizah Mei

Introduction/Background
Contrary to the belief of the majority, mathematics plays an important role in Political
Science. Statistics in particular. Statistics is described as a discipline and descriptors. Statistics
pertains to the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. Statistics is a
discipline that allows researchers to evaluate conclusions derived from sample data. In practice,
statistics refers to a scientific approach used to Collect data, Interpret and analyze data, and
assess the reliability of conclusions based on sample data. Statistics are quantities computed from
data used to characterize the key features of data. The statistic is the mean or average of the data.

Project Scope

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New Era University
Mathematics in the Modern World
College of Arts and Sciences
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This study focuses on how statistics can be applied in various fields of Political Science.
However, this paper will be limited to the use of statistics in politics and social research. The
respondents of this study are also limited to the students of the New Era University.

Benefits Forecasted
This project will be a significant endeavor in investigating how mathematics and political
science can be related and be useful to each other. Moreover, the results of the study will be
beneficial to the following:

Students – Students of social sciences, especially political science students will gain more
knowledge about the connection of mathematics in their chosen course/field. As political science
students and future workers in the government, we are responsible for the welfare of the citizens
and the aliens alike residing in the community. They will be able to use and apply this concept as
they study further.

Social Workers – Social workers will be able to use or apply the results of this project to their
field of work.

Professors – Professors will gain more knowledge about the connection of mathematics in
political science that they can use to teach or impart to their students.

Future Researchers – Future researchers should understand every text concerning the same topic
and study for proper guidance. This study can support factual information regarding the
connection of statistics in political science.

Project Plan
The things that are required to accomplish this project is to research, identify what are the
necessary things that the project needs, having to meet or communicate with the members or

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leader to plan and discuss the project's goals, draw direct contact lines between the members of
the group, divide the project into key milestones, and having consistent results.

NARRATIVE REPORT

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It was hard. I want to say that all of my groupmates did their best in contributing, but I can’t see
even a little effort in their tasks. During our first meeting, only 3 attended, including myself. We
talked about the topic for the presentation and we also came up with a title.

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When their tasks was delegated, I thought it was already clar to the. But only Barreyro was able
to finish her work even BEFORE the deadline, with a good quality. Aguilar and Catabay were
somewhat unresponsive, while Asaytono… she did not even do her assigned task. Even we have
so many distractions we have contributed our parts and as a leader I have the responsibility to my
group that I will be their way for success.

Below is the peer evaluation.

Name of the Member: Patricia Agular


Evaluator: Angelica Ebonia

Competencies 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-100

1. Initiative to work 85

2. Performs assigned task willingly 90

3. Accepts responsibility beyond 75


assigned work

4. Submits work on time 95

5. Submits quality work 85

6. Accepts constructive criticism 100

7. Relates well with peers 95

8. Able to share ideas 100

9. Attendance punctuality in group 88


activities

10. Participates actively in group 80


activities

Average: 89.3%

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Name of the Member: Lenchie Claire Asaytono
Evaluator: Angelica Ebonia

Competencies 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-100

1. Initiative to work 70

2. Performs assigned task willingly 70

3. Accepts responsibility beyond 70


assigned work

4. Submits work on time 60

5. Submits quality work 60

6. Accepts constructive criticism 79

7. Relates well with peers 70

8. Able to share ideas 85

9. Attendance punctuality in group 70


activities

10. Participates actively in group 70


activities

Average: 70.4%

Name of the Member: Jannm Elise Barreyro


Evaluator: Angelica Ebonia

Competencies 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-100

1. Initiative to work 100

2. Performs assigned task willingly 100

3. Accepts responsibility beyond 100


assigned work

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4. Submits work on time 100

5. Submits quality work 100

6. Accepts constructive criticism 100

7. Relates well with peers 100

8. Able to share ideas 100

9. Attendance punctuality in group 100


activities

10. Participates actively in group 100


activities

Average: 100%

Name of the Member: Rhaizah Mei Catabay


Evaluator: Angelica Ebonia

Competencies 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-100

1. Initiative to work 80

2. Performs assigned task willingly 85

3. Accepts responsibility beyond 79


assigned work

4. Submits work on time 100

5. Submits quality work 75

6. Accepts constructive criticism 100

7. Relates well with peers 90

8. Able to share ideas 90

9. Attendance punctuality in group 80


activities

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10. Participates actively in group 75
activities

Average: 85.4%

Angelica Ebonia
Evaluator

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