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A Critique on: “Nuclear Winter” by Carl Sagan

The nuclear weapons detonated over Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the US in 1945, and the

nuclear arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War marked

Carl Sagan's "The Nuclear Winter", published in 1983, as a kairotic moment. In November 2010,

the article was republished in a digital magazine called Global Research. It was republished

when the United States government considered nuclear weapons against Iran to remind people of

the "implications of a nuclear war"[ CITATION Mic10 \l 1033 ]. Carl Sagan was a reputed

physicist known for standing up for nuclear disarmament [ CITATION Edi14 \l 1033 ]. In "The

Nuclear Winter", Sagan tries to make the general public aware of the effects of a nuclear war,

hence a nuclear winter. To convince his audience of his views, Sagan uses various literary

techniques and Aristotle's rhetorical devices. Sagan backs logos by using his physics background

to present primary and credible secondary sources of evidence that further strengthen his

argument. However, Sagan's occasional condescending tone and use of unverifiable pieces of

evidence weaken his argument.

In "The Nuclear Winter", Carl Sagan attempts to warn people of the calamitous effects of

a nuclear war on human health, as well as the Earth's environment. Before Sagan explains the

effects of a Nuclear War, he describes what a Nuclear War would look like- the amount of

explosive yield of the detonated nuclear bombs and how many deaths might occur. The author

then proceeds to describe the experiments and discoveries made that imitate a nuclear war's

hypothesised conditions. From the findings of these experiments, Sagan explains the specifics of

nuclear winter and its effects. The author ends by trying to empower the reader to take action

against the use of nuclear weapons.

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The topic of nuclear winter is such that it requires the knowledge of a lot of scientific

concepts, and hence for the argument surrounding it to be credible, it must be dealt with by

someone aware of the science behind it. Sagan uses ethos to convince the reader that he can

tackle such a topic. In the article, Sagan has written that his colleagues worked in "NASA's

Ames Research Center", which implies that Sagan worked with NASA too [ CITATION Car83 \l

1033 ]. This helps convince the reader of the author's credibility as NASA is a very well-known

agency. Once Sagan's establishes his credibility as a scientist, the reader is more likely to believe

his research and trust his explanation of the results of the research and other scientific concepts.

Sagan uses ethos again to establish the credibility of the results of his research when he writes:

Our results have been carefully scrutinized by more than 100 scientists in the

United States, Europe and the Soviet Union... the overall conclusion seems to be

agreed upon... [ CITATION Car83 \l 1033 ]

The fact that scientists worldwide agree with Sagan's results deems the research as

reliable. This helps convince the reader to agree with the author’s point of view. Moreover, other

than ethos, Sagan also uses logos throughout "The Nuclear Winter" by quoting facts and figures

and results from researches from both primary and credible secondary sources. Throughout the

article, Sagan claims that nuclear explosions are unpredictable, and there is no way of knowing

the extent of the damage caused by them. To support this claim, Sagan describes the Bravo test's

disastrous consequences done by the United States. This nuclear weapon test at Bikini Atoll was

not supposed to harm anyone, but because of a "last-minute shift in the wind direction" and the

unexpected yield of the bomb, the radiation fallout reached Rongelap, which is "more than 200

kilometres away" from Bikini Atoll [ CITATION Car83 \l 1033 ]. Most children in Rongelap

"developed thyroid nodules and lesions, and other long-term, due to the radiation fallout"
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[ CITATION Car83 \l 1033 ]. This use of logos helps convince the reader that the author's claim

about nuclear explosions being unpredictable is correct- which means that the reader will be

more inclined to support the author's other claims. Sagan uses logos again when he details the

research conducted by him and his colleagues about "the climatic effects of nuclear war"

[ CITATION Car83 \l 1033 ]. The author includes details of the hypothesis, method of research,

and results. The results obtained from the research that Sagan and his colleagues conducted

suggested that "temperatures would drop catastrophically" to "minus 25 Celsius", and as a result

of this, "... all crops and farm animals... would be destroyed" [ CITATION Car83 \l 1033 ].

These results support Sagan's recurring claim that "nuclear war would be an unprecedented

human catastrophe". The results of the research complementing the author's claim might make

the reader side with the author's point of view about the dangers posed by nuclear weapons.

Furthermore, since Sagan’s audience is the general public, of whom not all may

understand the scientific evidence backing Sagan’s claims, he appeals to the reader’s emotions

too. Sagan appeals to pathos by using various literary techniques, which helps the reader agree

with his perspective. Using literary devices also strengthens his argument and ensures that the

reader can easily understand his points. One of the literary techniques that Sagan uses

repetitively is an analogy. An excellent example of analogy in the article is in the second

paragraph when Sagan is describing the effects of a 2-megaton explosion:

… outlying structures blown down like matchsticks and raging fires ignited. And

if bombs were exploded on the ground, an enormous crater, like those that can be

seen through a telescope on the surface of the moon. [CITATION Car83 \l 1033 ]

The analogy that Sagan has used in this example makes it very easy for the reader to

understand Sagan's point because "matchsticks" and pictures of "the surface of the moon" are
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much easier to imagine than "outlying structures" being "blown down" or craters on the ground

due to a nuclear bomb exploding. This analogy also appeals to a reader's fears. This appeal to

fear would increase the chances of the reader agreeing with the author about the dangers of

nuclear weapons because the alternative, that is, "structures being blown down like matchsticks",

is much too terrifying [ CITATION Car83 \l 1033 ]. Another great use of an analogy is again in

the second paragraph when Sagan discusses the number of nuclear arsenals owned by the US and

the Soviet Union. In order to make it easier for a reader to understand how much “50,000 nuclear

weapons, more than 13,000 megatons of yield” is, the author uses the analogy: “… enough to

obliterate a million Hiroshimas” (Sagan, 1983). This analogy helps the reader understand the

author’s point about the vast amount of nuclear weapons that exist in the two mentioned

countries. This is because many readers would be aware of the nuclear bombings on Hiroshima

as that is the only time that nuclear weapons were used, making the example very well

known[ CITATION Nuc20 \l 1033 ]. Again, this analogy involving Hiroshima appeals to the

reader's fear- as many might know the city's state after the explosion. The second literary

technique used by Sagan in "The Nuclear Winter" is imagery. One of the most notable uses of

observations of pathos with imagery is when the author describes discoveries by a spacecraft

orbiting Mars when it was "enveloped in a global dust storm" (Sagan, 1983). The author

describes the effects of the dust storm as:

The dust, lofted by high winds off the desert into the upper Martian atmosphere,

had absorbed the incoming sunlight… But the surface, enveloped in partial

darkness, became much chiller than usual. [CITATION Car83 \l 1033 ]

This imagery is beneficial to Sagan's point about nuclear war's effects because he

envisioned something similar after a nuclear war. Using this imagery, the author has enabled the
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reader to imagine this scenario, thereby increasing the reader's likelihood of agreeing with the

author's claims. The above quote uses pathos, as words such as "darkness" and "chiller" appeal to

the reader's fear. The two mentioned nouns are usually associated with fear and gloom. Sagan

uses similar visual imagery later in the article when considering the effects of contained nuclear

wars [CITATION Car83 \l 1033 ].

Although much of Sagan's argument is well-written, he sometimes uses a somewhat

patronising tone that weakens his claims. This tone is especially apparent in the article's opening

sentence where Sagan writes: "Except for fools and madmen, everyone knows that nuclear

winter would be an unprecedented human catastrophe" [ CITATION Car83 \l 1033 ]. To some

readers, this would be an excellent hook, and they would not be offended by it, but other readers,

especially those who do not know or believe in nuclear winter, may take offence at the author's

words, thus decreasing the likelihood that they will agree with his claims. Sagan repeats a similar

phrase at the end of the article, but this time he implies that "fools and madmen" are some people

in power [ CITATION Car83 \l 1033 ]. This sentence also has different effects on different types

of readers: those against the people in power would be more likely to agree with his claims after

reading this, but those who support or are the people in power may be angered by what Sagan

writes, so again, lowering the chances of them agreeing with his points- however valid they are.

Furthermore, Sagan sometimes uses unverifiable evidence to support his arguments that decrease

the argument's validity. An observation of such a case is when Sagan discusses whether nuclear

war's containment is possible of not. To support his perspective that it is not possible, he writes:

... a number of detailed analyses, war games run by the U.S. Department of

Defense, and Soviet pronouncements all indicate that this containment may be too

much to hope for... [ CITATION Car83 \l 1033 ]

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In this case, the reader is unaware of which studies or "war games" Sagan refers to, so the

reader cannot confirm the evidence used, thereby weakening its credibility. Sagan does this again

on several occasions, including when he writes about energy release due to explosions in a

nuclear war. The repetition of such uses of unverifiable pieces of evidence may lead some

readers to believe that the author may be misleading them.

To conclude, Carl Sagan successfully convinces the reader to agree with his perspective

about nuclear weapons and their effects. His success stems from the fact that after reading "The

Nuclear Winter", the reader understands the harmful effects of nuclear weapons and might feel

morally responsible for standing against the use of nuclear weapons as the author continuously

insists in the article that billions of people will die if nuclear weapons remain. Despite providing

some unverifiable pieces of evidence and sounding condescending at times, Sagan's excellent use

of logos, ethos, pathos and a variety of literary devices, such as imagery and analogy, make his

overall arguments valid.

Words: 1780
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Works Cited

Carl Sagan Biography. (2014, April 02). Retrieved March 21, 2021, from The Biography.com:

https://www.biography.com/scientist/carl-sagan

Chossudovsky, M. (2010, November 9). Nuclear Winter: Nuclear War would be an

Unprecedented Human Catastrophe. Retrieved March 21, 2021, from Global Research:

https://www.globalresearch.ca/nuclear-winter-nuclear-war-would-be-an-unprecedented-

human-catastrophe/21840

Nuclear weapons: Which countries have them and how many are there? (2020, January 14).

Retrieved March 21, 2021, from BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-

51091897

Sagan, C. (1983, January 1). The Nuclear Winter.