GDP shrinks by 7.

3%; Q4 uptick
moderates 2020-21 carnage
Curbing new pandemic waves, lockdowns, vaccination pace hold key to recovery
Special Correspondent
NEW DELHI

India’s Gross Domestic Pro-

duct (GDP) contracted by
7.3% in 2020-21, as per provi-
sional National Income esti-
mates released by the Na-
tional Statistical Office on
Monday, marginally better
than the 8% contraction in
the economy projected ear-
lier. GDP growth in 2019-20,
prior to the COVID-19 pan-
demic, was 4%.
The Gross Value Added
(GVA) in the economy
shrank 6.2% in 2020-21, com-
pared to a 4.1% rise in the
previous year. Only two sec- the first half of the year. growth prospects for 2021-22 Srivastava added.
tors bucked the trend of ne- GDP had contracted through the base effect, even Chief Economic Advisor
gative GVA growth — agricul- 24.4% in April-June 2020, as the scourge of the virus is to the Finance Ministry K.V.
ture, forestry and fishing, followed by a 7.4% shrinkage hurting activity again. Subramanian said he doesn’t
which rose 3.6%, and elec- in the second quarter. It had “With a lower contraction expect GDP forecasts to be
tricity, gas, water supply and returned to positive territory in GDP as well as GVA in significantly affected.
other utility services (up in the September to Decem- 2020-21, the sharp recovery “Whether growth will be
1.9%). ber quarter with a marginal projected for 2021-22 by a in double digits or single di-
Though this is the bleak- 0.5% growth. number of agencies like the gits, there is uncertainty.
est performance on record GVA for trade, hotels, IMF at 12.5% and the RBI at Some of the scientists are
for the economy, the fourth transport, communication 10.5% may have to be moder- talking about the possibility
quarter (Q4) of 2020-21 and broadcasting-related ated,” said D.K. Srivastava, of a third wave too. It would
helped moderate the dam- services saw the sharpest de- chief policy advisor at EY In- be speculative to tell you ex-
age, with a higher-than-ex- cline of 18.2%, followed by dia. “The combination of the act numbers,” he said,
pected growth of 1.6% in construction (-8.6%), mining second wave and the revised stressing that vaccination
GDP. This marked the se- and quarrying (-8.5%) and base effect may imply a low- was important for the health
cond quarter of positive manufacturing (-7.2%). er GDP growth for the Indian of the people and economy.
growth after the country en- Economists said these economy for 2021-22, may be
tered a technical recession in numbers would moderate in the range of 9-9.5%,” Mr. CONTINUED ON A PAGE 8