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MANAGEMENT SPEAK
Aspires aggressive market share
UNRATED
6-mth avg. daily volumes (m) 0.4 Double TBR share to 13-14% (~34% of revenues): As T&B forms 50% of industry revenues,
building presence is critical for scale and relevance. Superior product (such as recently
6-mth avg. daily traded value launched X3 mileage product), with innovative service models (such as application-based
selling, pay per use, etc) along with capacity expansion would drive share gains.
(Rsm/USDm) 566.9/7.7
Triple international revenues (~14% of revenues): CEAT has narrowed its focus on a)
Shares outstanding (m) 40.5 Europe for PCR and TBR segments, b) ASEAN for 2Ws, and, c) US and Europe for OTR
Free float (%) 53.2 segment. For the international market, it aims to develop market-specific products and
seed the right market. Off-highway business gained traction with 70% growth in Europe
Promoter holding (%) 46.8 during FY21. Its new product launch (niche-agri tyre based on flex technology to handle
heavy loading) has been well accepted. CEAT doubled reach during FY21, and entered 6
Price performance – relative & absolute new countries; this, with measured expansion, places it well to capture growth potential.
CEAT Sensex
200 Key valuation metrics
150 Year to 31 Mar FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Net sales (Rs m) 57,652 62,308 69,845 67,788 76,096
100
Adj. net profit (Rs m) 3,745 2,720 2,959 2,599 4,664
50 Shares in issue (m) 40 40 40 40 40
0 Adj. EPS (Rs) 92.6 67.2 73.1 64.3 115.3
Jun-18 Mar-19 Dec-19 Sep-20 Jun-21
% change (9.7) (27.4) 8.8 (12.2) 79.4
(%) 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr PE (x) 17.6 24.2 22.3 25.4 14.1
CEAT IN (9.9) 23.3 47.7 Price/ Book (x) 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0
BSE Sensex 5.1 11.6 56.2 EV/ EBITDA (x) 11.4 11.7 12.4 11.7 8.1
RoE (%) 16.5 10.7 10.9 9.1 14.9
RoCE (%) 15.3 12.3 10.9 9.0 12.3
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research
For Private Circulation only “Important disclosures appear at the back of this report”
CEAT
Other highlights
Signs of replacement demand pick-up visible during Jun 2021; expect TBR (Truck Bus Radial) to witness sharpest
recovery: Demand in Apr-May has been challenging. However, June saw some uptick in replacement demand,
though demand from OEMs remained subdued. The CV segment was buoyant compared to other segments. The
farm segment too tapered off during the 2nd wave. Overall, the company expects good demand recovery over the
next few years, as the last 5 years have borne the impact of various macro events like demonetisation, GST, BSVI
norms, COVID, etc.
Expects to expand capacities across categories to meet market share aspirations: CEAT has 6 manufacturing
facilities in India; Ambernath (OTR tyres), Nagpur (2W tyres), Chennai (PCR tyres), Mumbai (T&B and farm tyres),
Halol (T&B and PCR tyres) and Nashik (farm and T&B tyres). The company is adding significant capacities to expand
market share and meet demand, in addition to focusing on high level of automation and laying priority on flexibility,
as the number of SKUs are increasing, as per management. Expansion plans include: a) 67% increase in PCR
capacity from 870k tyres per month to ~1,450k tyres per month by FY23, b) 26% higher 2W/3W tyre capacities
from 3.3m tyres per month to 4.16m tyres per month by FY23, c) 56% higher TBR capacity from 100k tyres per
month to 156k tyres per month by FY23, and, d) 36% rise in OTR tyre capacity from 165tonnes/day to 225tonnes/
day by FY23.
Expects near-term pressure on margins: Management expects 1Q gross margins to be impacted, as raw material
costs have risen 8-10% sequentially. CEAT has already taken price hikes in Apr and May (cumulative of ~4%) and
might take another at the end of June, as per management.
Developing multiple product/platforms across categories: CEAT has developed a new platform for each of its
segment, such as grip technology for 2Ws (benchmarked with peers; performance is superior), mileage platform for
taxi segment (first one to offer 100k km). It has launched ‘Puncture safe’ tubeless tyres for the 2W segment, ‘Secura
Drive’ superior grip for the premium segment in PCR and ‘Vardhan’ for the farm tyre segment.
Enjoys strong 50% share in electric 2Ws: The company supplies to all major OEMs and even smaller players in the
e-2W segment, and has garnered 50-100% share of the business; overall segment share is strong at ~50%. e-2W
tyres are priced at par with ICE 2W ones. e-2W tyres need to have lower noise and lower rolling resistance; resistance
to higher wear and tear due to increased load/torque.
Leveraging 6 enablers/capabilities to drive goals: 1) strong focus on R&D, 2) manufacturing, 3) digital, 4)
distribution, and brand equity, 5) strong financials, 6) people and sustainability.
R&D strength and capabilities (spends 1.7% of revenues): Four key areas that the company believes it needs to
focus on are a) Compounding: developing new materials to reduce material cost; tie ups with global universities,
alternative material/substitution of material (silica replacing carbon black) and optimising cost b) Industrialisation:
reduce product development time and digitise product life cycle management, c) Testing: rigorous outdoor and
indoor testing (takes 1-1.5 years on road testing); advanced digital system to simulate on road tyre performance (to
increase accuracy) d) Future technology: Develop EV tyres, green tyres, tyres with sensors (would help fleet operators
to gauge the performance of tyres).
Best-in category digital initiatives: Superior customer experience through online purchasing (available on all
platforms); seamless ordering, doorstep delivery and fitment or pick up at the store (first company in India). CEAT
has the most advanced dealer customer experience portal, and improved customer claim experience on
warranty/replacement (claim resolution reduced from 3-7days to 15 mins) through ‘whatsapp’ chat facility.
Tyre pricing versus competition: Pricing in the market varies with market share positioning; in 2Ws, CEAT has the
highest net realisation versus peers, while in PCR and TBR, the price gap has narrowed to 1-1.5% versus the market
leader in the segment.
PCR tyres: There has been mix improvement with shift towards higher rim sizes; mix has improved by almost 5% in
the last few years (from 15-20% approximately).
Margin differential vs peers: Management indicated that CEAT’s margins were impacted due to 1) higher staff costs,
as more people were added, given the 6-month advancement of the at the Chennai and Halol plant expansions, 2)
higher advertisement spends 3) operating scale disadvantages 4) high-cost older factories. CEAT aspires to partially
reduce the margin gap with peers over the next 2-3 years.
Capex: The company has guided capex of Rs10bn capex for FY22 and Rs8.0-10bn for FY23.
Sustainability: CEAT is targeting 50% reduction in carbon footprint by 2030, through 1) Manufacturing: Using
briquette as a fuel and 25% of plant electricity generation using solar rooftops, 2) Materials: Increasing the use of
greener raw materials like recycled crumb rubber; Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)-compliant vendors
3) Product use: By introducing light-weight tyres, low rolling resistance tyres and increasing retreadibility, 4) End of
life: Recycling old tyres, and, 5) Transportation: network optimisation.
ESG: The auto industry is faced with higher pressure to improve emission norms and fuel efficiency, while for tyre
makers, the challenge is to lower noise and reduce rolling resistance. For tyre makers, more regulations pertain to
end of tyre life, and CEAT is working with the government to correctly dispose tyre at the end of life.
Exhibit 1: Maximum revenues are derived from the T&B Exhibit 2: The replacement segment contributes two-thirds
and 2W segments of total revenues
Revenue mix by segment (%, FY21) Revenue mix by channel (%, FY21)
PCR, 14 Exports, 14
T&B, 34
OEM, 21
2Ws/3Ws,
29
Replaceme
nt, 65
Speciality /
LCVs, 9 Farm, 14
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research Source: Company, DAM Capital Research
Exhibit 3: CEAT was focused on the passenger segment in the last decade, with the share rising from 15% in FY11 to 43% in FY21
Revenue mix by segment (%) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
T&B 58 53 52 46 42 38 33 32 30 32 34
Speciality / Farm 14 14 13 14 12 10 12 11 13 11 14
LCVs 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 12 9
2Ws/3Ws 10 12 13 17 23 27 29 31 32 32 29
PCR 5 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 14 14 14
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research
Exhibit 4: The share of replacement segment increased significantly in FY21, driven by a sharp fall in OEM demand
Revenue mix by channel (%) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Replacement 69 61 57 58 60 64 63 61 58 59 65
OEMs 13 16 20 22 22 23 23 27 27 27 21
Exports 18 22 23 20 18 13 14 12 15 14 14
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research
Exhibit 5: CEAT’s revenues grew at 5%/7% CAGR over the last 5/10 years, respectively
Revenue by segment FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Truck and Bus 19,523 22,772 24,759 24,146 22,780 20,502 18,595 18,133 18,097 18,654 23,393
Speciality / Farm 4,712 6,089 6,038 7,246 6,338 5,416 6,518 6,233 7,842 6,514 9,632
LCV 4,376 6,015 6,666 7,349 7,051 7,014 7,325 6,800 6,635 6,810 6,192
Two Wheeler 3,366 5,250 6,390 8,990 12,460 14,830 16,480 17,567 19,303 18,951 19,953
Passenger Cars /UVs 1,683 2,840 3,760 4,760 5,610 6,190 7,430 7,933 8,445 8,291 9,632
Standalone revenue 33,661 42,966 47,613 52,491 54,239 53,952 56,348 56,667 60,322 59,221 68,803
Growth yoy (%) 27.6 10.8 10.2 3.3 (0.5) 4.4 0.6 6.5 (1.8) 16.2
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research
Exhibit 6: CEAT’s gross margin rose significantly vs peers, Exhibit 7: Despite leading gross margin, EBITDA margin
given the improvement in mix of 2W/PCR lagged vs peers, due to lower scale, higher ad spends
Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%)
CEAT APTY MRF CEAT APTY MRF
50 43 43 44 44 25.0 22.0
40 42
40 20.0 17.9 18.2
33 16.4
29
30 26 15.0 13.5 12.9
11.1
9.6
20 10.0
4.5
10 5.0
0 0.0
FY11 FY16 FY21 FY11 FY16 FY21
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research Source: Company, DAM Capital Research
Exhibit 8: CEAT has higher employee expenses Exhibit 9: Other expenses too have risen significantly over
the years
Employee expenses (% of sales)
Other expenses (% of sales)
CEAT APTY MRF
10.0 CEAT APTY MRF
8.9 8.7 30.0
7.9
8.0 7.1 22.6 22.1
6.5 6.3
5.9 5.6 18.6
6.0 5.0 20.0 16.6 15.915.1
15.9 15.4
14.3
4.0
10.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
FY11 FY16 FY21
FY11 FY16 FY21
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research Source: Company, DAM Capital Research
Exhibit 10: CEAT’s spends on advertisement and sales promotion is higher (as % of sales) versus peers
Adv. and sales promotion FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
CEAT 449 424 743 754 1,042 1,185 1,221 1,467 1,689 1,610
APTY 988 366 696 766 565 1,125 1,086 1,422 1,956 2,514
MRF 852 1,025 1,153 1,382 1,489 3,572 2,568 2,598 3,040 3,004
Adv. and sales promotion (% of sales)
CEAT 1.2 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4
APTY 1.8 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.3
MRF 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research
Exhibit 11: CEAT’s R&D spends also increased sharply over the decade
R&D expenditure FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
CEAT 57 426 177 187 216 522 1,332 1,008 908 1,143
APTY 321 374 407 944 1,043 1,713 1,749 1,560 2,194 1,954
MRF 176 219 318 316 341 549 1,997 1,590 1,113 1,064
R&D expenditure (% of sales) - - - - - - - - - -
CEAT 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.7
APTY 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.8
MRF 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.7
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research
Exhibit 12: CEAT has aggressive expansion plans to expand market share
Exhibit 13: CEAT capex spend stood at Rs27bn over the last 3 years
Capex (Rs m) % of sales (RHS)
14,000 18.5 20.0
3,500 5.0
0 0.0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research
Exhibit 14: CEAT turned FCF positive in FY21, driven by Exhibit 15: …resulting in lower net debt; D/E is under
improved profitability and working capital… control
0 10,000 0.40
(117)
-4,000 (2,195) 5,000 0.20
Exhibit 16: RoCE profile of tyre makers Exhibit 17: RoE profile of tyre makers
30 30
15 15
0 0
CEAT APTY MRF FY11 FY16 FY21
Source: Company, DAM Capital Research Source: Company, DAM Capital Research
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Contd…
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