EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES & FUTURE OF WARFARE:

THE HYPERSONIC WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY

Dr Ali Sarosh
PhD, MS, MSc., BE, CPMP, Snr Memb AIAA

Institute of Avionics & Aeronautics (IAA),

Air University Islamabad
 THE PREAMBLE

• The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA)

reported in June 2018 issue of Aerospace America:

– “… The Pentagon reported to Congress earlier this year (2018) that

China has conducted 20 times as many hypersonic flight tests as the
U.S. The most noteworthy recent test was in November, when China
flew a new hypersonic missile, the DF-17, …….
– …. hypersonic flight, ……………….., could be a handy way to travel, but
for the leaders in this field — China, Russia and the U.S.— the emphasis
has shifted to weapons. “
– (by Keith Burton, Aerospace America, pg 22 of June 2018 issue)
Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021 2
 HOW DOES HSWT WORK??

Option1: glide & descend to

hypersonic speeds – BGM

Option2: Use a scramjet

engine to accelerate - HCM

• Source: CRS image based on an image in “Gliding missiles that fly faster than Mach 5 are coming,” The Economist, April 6, 2019,,
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2019/04/06/gliding-missiles-that-fly-faster-than-mach-5-are-coming
6/24/2021 3
Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad
 THE NEED FOR HYPERSONIC WEAPONS
TECHNOLOGY
• Case for Hypersonic Weapons Technology
– The Congressional Research Service (June 2021 issue) reported:
– “ The Pentagon’s FY2022 budget request for hypersonic-related
research is $3.8billion—up from $3.2 billion in the FY2021 request.
– ……………… growing support for weapons that could attack priority
targets promptly and with improved accuracy without facing defeat by
an adversary’s air or missile defense systems……….
– ……….. officials have also expressed concerns about advances in
hypersonic weapons technologies in Russia and China, ………. “

Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021 4
 HYPERSONIC WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY IN
WARFARE
• CONCEPT
– PROMPT, ACCURATE & UNDEFEATED
– A ultra high speed, low-detectability, high survivability,
long-range platform capable of delivering conventional
and/or nuclear payloads

– Ultra high speed >>>> Hypersonic (Mach > 5)

– Low detectability >>> Depressed Trajectory (below the radar)
– High survivability >>> high maneuverability , high-altitude
Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021 5
 HYPERSONIC TECHNOLOGIES OF FUTURE
WARFARE
• Two Types of Hypersonic Weapons Technologies
– 1. Hypersonic (Rocket) Boost-Glide System – HGV, BGV, HBGV….
– 2. Hypersonic Cruise Missile (Airbreathing Scramjet) System – HCV or HCM

DF-17 hypersonic boost-glide missile | Errymath hypersonic-missile (militermeter.com)

Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021 6
 HYPERSONIC TECHNOLOGIES OF FUTURE
WARFARE
• The Characteristics of Hypersonic Weapons
– The hypersonic BGV places a maneuverable glide vehicle while HCV
places a scramjet propelled vehicle atop a ballistic missile booster

– Compared with Ballistic Reentry Vehicles

• The ability to maneuver and change course
• Novel trajectory
• Complicates detection, tracking and defense
• Unpredictable HGV’s flight path
• Difficult to predict intended target (terminal phase homing)
Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021 7
 HSWs are Hard to Follow, ~1000 -1200 km
HOW
Hard DOES HSWT WORK??
to Destroy

Hypersonic HSW flight

speed plus ~110-120 km paths are too
low & BGV high ~40km
varying flight for SAMs &
path makes too low for
HSW harder HCV ~40-50 km
exo-
to detect, atmospheric
predict & weapons to
intercept be effective

Courtesy: Canadian Centre for Strategic Studies (basic figure) modified by author
Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021 8
 THE HYPERSONIC WEAPONS “CLUB”

India Technology
Leaders in HSW
Iran Advance level
Applied Research
South Korea Russia Foundational
France Research HSW
Israel
HSW developed &
China deployed

Japan HSW technology

own but no
USA weapons
developed

Germany
Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021 9
 HYPERSONIC TECHNOLOGIES OF FUTURE
WARFARE
• In-Service Hypersonic Weapons

Country System Type Mounted Mach Target

Russia Avangard MIRV-HBGM RS-28 ICBM 20 Ground/ naval
Russia Kinzhal AL-HBGM Air Launched ~10 Warships/ ground
Russia Zircon Hs Cruise Missile SLBM 8~9 Anti-ship/ submarine
China DF-17 HBGM IRBM 5-10 Ground/Anti-ship

An artist’s rendition of the DF-ZF (courtesy An artist’s rendition of Zircon (courtesy IFE Hypersonic Kinzhal missile is borne by An artist’s rendition of the Avangard
Missile Defense Advocacy, MDAA) News Network) a MiG-31K (courtesy Arctic Today) (courtesy janes.ihs.comM 10
Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021
 HYPERSONIC TECHNOLOGY : NEW WAR
THEATRES

Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021 11
 HYPERSONIC TECHNOLOGIES OF FUTURE
WARFARE
• Hypersonic Weapons Programs Under Development
Country Program Mounted Mach Targets
USA Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) Submarine ~6 Naval
USA Long Range Hyper Weapon (LRHW) Submarine ~10 Land A2/AD
USA USAF-AGM-183 ARRW Air Launched 6.5~8 Ground
USA DARPA-Tactical Boost Glide (TBG) Air Launched 7+ CTS
USA Hypersonic Airbreathing Weapon (HAWC) Air Launched 5-8
China DF-41-DF-ZF(HGV) Integration Land Based +10 Sea/Land
China Xing Kong-2 (Starry Sky-2) Waverider Air Launched 6 Nuclear
France V-max (Experimental Maneuvering Vehicle) Air Launched +5 Nuclear
Japan HCM-HVGP Land ~8 Acft Carrier
India BrahMos-II Land ~7 Ground
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Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021
 HYPERSONIC TECHNOLOGY IMPLICATIONS
IN SOUTH ASIA
• BrahMos II Program
– INDIA-RUSSIA Collaboration
– Mach 7 hypersonic cruise missile.
– Program faces significant delays
– Scheduled to achieve initial operational capability between 2025 and 2028

• Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HTDV) program

– Dual capable missile - a single missile sharing components for both a nuclear and
conventional variant
– June 2019: successfully tested a Mach 6 scramjet
– Sept 2020: second successful testing of Mach 6 scramjet

Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021 13
 HYPERSONIC TECHNOLOGY IMPLICATIONS
IN SOUTH ASIA
• DETRIMENTAL
• The New Arms Race
• Strategic Stability Issues >>> Unpredictability >>> Unintended
Escalation
• Strain on Fledgling Economies (post CoVID)
• BENEFICIAL
• Hypersonic Technology >>> Low-Cost space access
• Cleaner (possibly greener) propulsion
• Collaborative Research Avenues
Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021 14
 PREVENTING THE HYPERSONIC ARMS
RACE
• GLOBALLY
• US-Russia : “The New START Treaty”
– 2021 Five Years Extension of START Treaty
– Use Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC) to redefine New START Limits
>>> HSWs
• US-China:
– China pursued to join New START Treaty (Mistrust !!!)
• SOUTH ASIA
– Nuclear Crisis Group (NCG) Identified South Asia as a Nuclear Flashpoint
– Restraints on Technology Transfer for Indian Hypersonic Weapons Program

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Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad
 HYPERSONIC WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY –
NATURE OF WAR
• Nature of Warfare >>> VIOLENT
– Political Dimension >>> Greater Political Leverage
– Human Dimension >>> Compounding of Fear
– Uncertainty >>> Heightened Uncertainty
– Contest of Wills >>> New Arms Race
• Character of Warfare
– Quickly seize the initiative in escalating from rhetoric to kinetic
action
– rapidly inflicting damage using assets that are well-dispersed
and may appear unrelated to each other or to the conflict.
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Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021
 HYPERSONIC WEAPONS TECHNOLOGY –
NATURE OF WAR
• Two Predominant Characteristics
• #1 Clausewitzian Capability
– reaching a limited culminating point of victory quickly and
decisively
• #2 Sun Tzu Strategy
– A win without fighting - fait accompli for adversary

Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021 17
Lecture Notes by Dr Ali Sarosh, IAA (DMAE), Air University Islamabad 6/24/2021 18