APPLICATION OF COMPUTATIONAL

INTELLIGENCE TECHNIQUES FOR

SUB-ORBITAL VEHICLE DESIGN

The CVEX Design Program

Keynote Talk

DR ALI SAROSH
Air University Islamabad

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AEROSPACE SCIENCE &

ENGINEERING (ICASE) 2021
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 Preamble
• Sub-orbital vehicles (SOVs) are constrained by cost
limitations owing to limited role or expendability
• Reduce development cost by cutting down design
cost & time
• SOVs include a wide array of space flight systems
such as experimental launchers, orbital test
vehicles, long and medium range missiles
• Classical design schemes follow Cayley’s design
paradigm – large empirical correlational data
• Computational Intelligence !! offer a convenient
and cost-effective startup for evolving baseline
configuration
ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh 2
 Working with Baselines
EXPERT SYSTEMS
Aerospace Maximum Conformance for
Vehicle Minimal Inputs
Design of
SOV – The
CI Paradigm
Working without Baselines
HEURISTIC – INTELLIGENCE
Maximum Fidelity for Minimum
Computations
ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 Cognition is the basis of human
evolution…and our judgment !!

As man started thinking he also started

The Expert remembering and recalling what he had
System – learned from his experience
A
Knowledge and experience were put
Cognitive together and good sense got added in
Paradigm human thinking…

Outcome :- Modern Human Thinking -

Cognition

In computational science cognition forms the

basis of intelligent behavior and decision
ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
processing – a prelude to heuristics
 Research Concept
• Our research aims to develop cost and
time efficient solutions for configuration
evolution of aerospace systems (SOVs)
using simple-as-possible (SAP) input
parameters
• Computational intelligence (CI) will replace classical
design methods
• Expert or Heuristic-Intelligent system is developed
• Outcome: Very few input parameters produce large
number of output parameters that are conformal to
classical design solution
ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh 5
 Concept of a Computationally
Intelligent Design Scheme
Design Variables CLASSICAL
Design Constraints DESIGN
Design Assumptions SCHEME
Trade Study Data

Simple-as-Possible
(User Input)

AI Expert System: Big

Data of Legacy Design

PREDICTED Basic
Design Parameters

ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh 6

 Compute Intelligent Solution Schemes
• LEGACY PARAMS in DISCRETE DOMAIN Scheme
• Large Sub-Orbital Carrier Vehicles e.g. ICBM, IRBM
• Demarcated Operations & Design Parameters
• Limited variables Knowledge-base of SOVs
• Mapping O/P to I/P Variables using ANN, CNN etc.
• LEGACY PARAMS in FUZZY DOMAIN Scheme
• Small Tactical Systems e.g AAM, AGM, SAM etc
• Overlapping Parameters
• Large Knowledge-base of Systems
• Mapping O/P to I/P Variables neuro-fuzzy ANFIS
• NON-LEGACY PARAMS in HEURISTIC DOMAIN Sch
• Futuristic sub-orbital systems e.g. HCV, TSTO
• Many undefined variables & little or no legacy data
• Unconfirmed Knowledge-base of Systems
ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
• Extraction, classification and optimization of results
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 CI Modules for SOV Design
• N2SM Module:- Mapping of design • Data set of
inputs to parametric outputs for sub- Ballistic Missiles
orbital carriers is done through a multi- & Launch
layered feed forward Artificial Neural Vehicles
Network (ANN) with customized
weights and biases
• ATTM Module:- Mapping of design • Data set of
inputs to parametric outputs for multi- SAM, AAM, AGM
class tactical missiles is done using Tactical Missiles
Takagi Sugeno model of Adaptive
Neuro Fuzzy Inference system (ANFIS)
with multi-layered feed forward network
• HI2D Module:- New Design • Data set of
parameters are extracted using inverse
design methods integrated with TSTOs & Anchor
heuristic optimization and intelligent Baseline of HCV
classification – OCC method 8
ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 CVEX: HI2D Module for
Hypersonic Sub-Orbital Carrier
Vehicle Parametrization

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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 Evolve an Intelligent
Computational
Methodology for
Solving the
Aerothermodynamic
Design Problem of
Highly-Integrated
Problem Forebody-Inlet
Definition Configuration In
Conformance With
for Heuristic Overall Mass-Model of
Intelligent Two-Stage-To-Orbit
Solution Spaceplane Vehicle
ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh 11
 The HI2D Black Box

Framework Inputs

Black Box
CHWA Qualified System Design
(Heuristic Intelligent
Method & Mass-Model
Design Approach)

Black Box: Heuristic Intelligent Design Approach

Aerothermodynamics of
Booster Compression
Surrogates of Baseline Heuristic Intelligent
configuration configuration Optimization Classification
Mass-Model of TSTO
Vehicle

• When little is known for starter , Cognition is our best tool

• When fast & frugal results are desired high-fidelity heuristics is another tool
• …and when classification of solution is desired computational intelligence is
the best way
ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 HI2D Program Architecture
SHWAMIDOF-(FI) MAIN PROGRAM

A B C
SHWAMIDOF-(FI) Framework SHWAMIDOF-(FI) Optimized SHWAMIDOF-(FI)
BASELINE Parameters OPTIMIZER Parameters ANALYSIS

Optimizer Design Variables (16)

Aerothermodynamic
Parametric Solvers
OCC
Geometric
Parameters Solvers
Algorithm
Fitness Function(s) Solver Functions (19)
Optimization variables (16)

Performance
Parameters Solvers 1 10 10
2 11 1 11
3 12 2 12
4 13 3 13
5 14 4 14
Figure-of-Merit 6 15 5 15
Assessment 7 16 6 16
8 17 7 17
9 8 18
9
19
Selected Baseline
Parameters Aggregate Objective Functions (Maximized)

Mass Modeling SVM = SVM =

Parameters ‘GOOD’ Aerothermodyn. ‘GOOD’
& Mass-Model
Charts & Data
Sheets
Preliminary Sizing
OCC Result
parameters
VERSION 4.0
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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 Heuristic-Intelligent Solution
Parameters Baseline config. Optimal config.
Compression efficiency (ηc) 0.8932 0.8873
Cycle temperature ratio (Ψ) 4.76 5.56
Cycle pressure ratio (φ) 121.6 172.97
Cycle total press. ratio (πc) 0.26 0.189
Cycle entropy change ratio (χ) 0.3124 0.4055
Mass flow specific thrust (Fsp) 685 m/s 766 m/s
Overall (aeroth.) efficiency (ηo) 0.3634 0.4064
Length axial (forebody) 7.11m 6.75m
Length (forebody-inlet config.) 9.80m 10.66m
Height (forebody-inlet config.) 1.72m 1.75m
Area (air inlet) 0.5204 m2 0.5407 m2
CLmax (forebody-inlet config.) 0.3296 0.5091
CDmax (forebody-inlet config.) 0.15562 0.3377
Wall temp. windward (Tw=Tra) 1524~1576 K 1459~1571 K
Coefficient of skin friction (Cf) 0.004~0.0025 0.0036~0.0023
Hypersonic energy partition (α) 0.63 0.87
Payload mass (mpay) 7000 7000
Empty mass of TSTO (me) 48391 22160
Fuel mass TSTO (mf) 55303 29812
Launch mass TSTO (mtotal) 110695 58972
SSTO vs TSTO (Z/Ze) 1.15/1.08 0.90/0.80
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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
CVEX: N2SM Module for ICBM
& Sub-Orbital Carrier
Parametrization

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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 EXPERT SYSTEM

INFERENCE
KNOWLEDGE ENGINE
BASE
(I/P to O/P Mapping)

Machine Learning

USER GUI INPUTS

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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 Selected Design Parameters:
Large System Level (Level 0)

• Vehicle Empty weight • Payload Length

• Vehicle Propellant weight • Vehicle Minimum diameter
• Vehicle Gross weight • Vehicle Maximum diameter
• Vehicle Thrust • Vehicle Nominal diameter
• Vehicle CEP • Vehicle Stages
• Vehicle Length with payload • Vehicle Apogee
• Vehicle Length without payload 17
ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 Training of Multilayer Feed Forward
ANN with Back Propagation

1. Set No. Of neurons in hidden layers

2. Create a fitting network
3. Choose input and output pre/post processing
function
4. Data division for training, validation and testing
5. Select a training a function
6. Select a performance function
7. Set plot functions
8. Configure inputs and targets
9. Train the network
10. Testing the network
11. Calculating errors and performance
12. Recalculate training, validation and test
performance
13. View the network
14. Simulate the network

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 Network Architecture Tuning for Accuracy
of Design Parameters
Parameters Architecture

Vehicle Stages 2-3-1

Vehicle CEP 2-10-1

Vehicle Length 2-35-1

Warhead Length 2-27-1

Vehicle Empty wt. 2-24-1

Vehicle Propellant wt. 2-35-1

Vehicle Thrust 2-10-1

Vehicle Max. diameter 2-20-1

Vehicle Min. diameter 2-20-1

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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 N2SM Vehicle Design Module
REFERENCE FIGURE
DESIGN INPUTS

DESIGN OUTPUTS

LEVELS

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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 Sample Results: R-36M
User Defined Inputs Range=10500 km
Payload=1500 kg
Parameters Predicted R-36M Variation %
parameters (Russian)
Vehicle Apogee 1005.93 Km 1000 Km 0.5
Vehicle Stages 3 3 0
Vehicle Length 31.8 m 33.60 m 5
Payload Length 3.46 m 4.10 m 15.6
Vehicle Empty wt. 14073 Kg 14550 kg 3.27
Vehicle Propellant wt. 188645 Kg 188000 kg 0.34
Vehicle Gross wt. 204218 Kg 209800 kg 2.66
Vehicle Thrust 2892 KN 2820KN 2.56
Vehicle Max. diameter 2.89 m 3.05 m 5.24
Vehicle Min. diameter 1.06 m 1.25m 15.2
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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
Performance & Network Response Plots

𝒏 𝒏

𝒚 𝒕

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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
CVEX: ATMM Module for Small
Tactical Carrier Vehicles
Parametrization

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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 Solving the
Fuzzy Design
Problem
L2
L1= Max Range of
L1 short Range Missile

L2= Min Range of

long range Missile

Input Input Membership Rule Output membership Sum Design

Function function Func output

Range

Vehicle
Length

Payload

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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 Enhanced ANFIS Architecture

LENGTH

C
SAM DIAMETER
RANGE L
A A
N
SPAN
S SSM
S
I F WEIGHT

F AAM
I MACH
I
PAYLOAD
E AGM
S ALTITUDE
R
PROPELLENT

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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
Working of ANFIS Classified Tactical
Vehicle Design Solution

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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 Prediction with ANFIS ATMM
Parameters Numeric Predictions Actual Parameters %Variations
Mission Profile Surface to Air Missile Surface to Air Missile 0
Length 2.492 2.61 4.5
Diameter 0.194 0.18 7.2
Span 0.617 0.60 2.7
Launch Weight 154 150 2.59
Speed Mach 1.80 2.00 10
Stages Single stage Single stage 0
Propellent Type Solid Solid 0
Warhead Type Conventional Conventional 0
Guidance system Beam Rider+ IR Command, Beam 15
Homing Rider, IR Homing
Platform Ground Based Ground Based 0
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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
Summary of Computational Intelligence
Application to Flight Vehicle Design

Computational Initializing
Intelligence Design
Applications
Parameters

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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
 Conclusions
• A Carrier Vehicle Expert Systems program successfully demonstrated
the power of big data analysis in aerospace vehicle design of SOVs

• The CVEX exhibits the ability to predict preliminary (initialization)

design parameters for the SOV design-process

• The CVEX modules have been successfully employed for design

parameterization of large SOVs (BMs), small SOVs (TMs) and futuristic
vehicles (HCVs)

• For flight vehicles with discrete design (legacy) data Neural Networks
are best suited. For Flight vehicles with fuzzy design (legacy) data
Enhanced-ANFIS is well suited & for futuristic vehicles with no design
data Heuristic-Intelligence methods are good

• Results for ANN & ANFIS-based predictions are verified both implicitly
and explicitly. All Results are validated from solution agreement
between predicted and actual vehicle design parameters

• CVEX is a Cost & Time-Efficient method for design parameters

extraction of aerospace systems such as expendable carrier vehicles
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ICASE 2021 Keynote Talk by Prof Dr Ali Sarosh
Computational Intelligence in
Aerospace Vehicle Design

CVEX Program

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