A Computationally Intelligent Expert System for
Design Parameterization of
Sub-Orbital Carrier Vehicles
Dr. Ali Sarosh
Head of Astronautics and Propulsion Research
National University of Sciences & Technology (NUST),
Pakistan
alisarosh@cae.nust.edu.pk
Abstract—In this research a novel intelligent computational
tool is developed to predict large-system design parameters for
sub–orbital carrier vehicles. The intelligent computations are
applied to attain fast and frugal results as compared to
conventional design methods of space vehicles. The intelligent
computational tool is based on the concept of an “Expert
System”. The expert system emulates the decision making
behavior of a human expert. It contains a “knowledge base”
composed of archival systems design data of sub–orbital carrier
vehicles and a “logical (inference) engine” that guides the
decision emulation process through use of conditional statements.
Mapping of design inputs to parametric outputs is done through
a multi-layered feed forward artificial neural network with
customized weights and biases. This formulation is based upon
Nguyen–Widrow Initialization function for the numerical
prediction of design parameters and Levenberg Marquardt
algorithm with back propagation for network training function
so as to minimize Mean Squared Errors (MSEs) and hence avoid
local minima entrapment of error gradient. The expert system
uses simple-as-possible (SAP) user–defined inputs of vehicle
range and payload only. The intelligent design output of expert
system showed good results not only for the training data set but
also for the validation and test data sets. Results for geometric
and thrust prediction of strategic sub-orbital systems showed
accuracy well above the accepted threshold value of mean
squared error and network response parameter. Moreover
results obtained were in conformance with historical trends of
sub–orbital carrier systems. The expert system program can
substantially reduce the efforts required to evolve baseline
configurations of sub–orbital carrier systems.
Keywords— Expert System, Sub–orbital carrier vehicle,
Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Back Propagation Algorithm
(BPA)
I. INTRODUCTION
Designing phase is an arduous process and it is the most
important phase during the development period of a sub–
orbital carrier system. Today technologically advanced
countries have indigenous design data for their space systems.
However developing countries lack most of the testing
facilities hence much of this critical design data is not
available. Of late a highly effective predictive system for
numerical and logical data has evolved in the form of
computational intelligence (CI). This CI is a type of artificial
Ch. Bilal Zafar
Department of Aerospace Engineering
National University of Sciences & Technology (NUST),
Pakistan
Bilal_zafar9@yahoo.com
intelligence (AI) that yields Expert Systems[1] based on
available system/functional parameters. The expert system has
largely been able to overcome the tedious design process and
is effectively able to make high fidelity numerical predictions
and logical classifications. Therefore the objective of this
research work has been to design and develop a
computationally intelligent expert system that circumvents the
classical design approach for design parameterization of sub–
orbital carrier vehicles
Artificial intelligence – a branch of computer science,
studies and develops intelligent machines and software[2] i.e it
is the science and engineering of making machines intelligent.
AI comes in the form of various engines where each engine is
a unique algorithm designed for handling specific types of
problem scenarios. Some of the most extensively employed AI
engines include: the artificial neural network (ANN)[3] – a
mathematical model inspired by biological neural networks,
Support vector machines(SVM)[4] – non-probabilistic binary
linear classifier that analyses data and recognizes patterns,
used for classification and regression analysis, Bayesian
classifier[5] – simple probabilistic classifier based on applying
Bayes' theorem (from Bayesian statistics) with strong (naive)
independent assumptions
Within the framework of AI, Expert Systems have been
evolved as computational algorithm designed to solve
complex problems by cognitive reasoning like an expert, and
not by following the practice of a developer as is the case in
conventional programming. Importantly enough the reliability
of an expert system is the same as the reliability of its
knowledge base. It uses both facts and heuristics to solve
difficult decision-making problems based on knowledge
acquired from an expert[6]. Expert system consists of a
Knowledge base and an Inference (logic) engine. Through
integration of artificial intelligence engine with expert
knowledge base and an inference engine, an effective baseline
configuration for sub–orbital carrier vehicles can be designed.
II. METHODOLOGY
The expert system design program will be executed at
three distinct levels where level 0 will be the integrating level
of the vehicle as such, level 1 will be system level addressing
all major systems and integrating components while the level