Department of Electrical Engineering

Sharif University of Technology

RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF ENGINEERING

SYSTEMS

Instructor : M. Fotuhi
Office : Room 604
E_mail fotuhi@sharif.edu

Time : Thursday, 3:45 to 6:30

Text : 1. Reliability Evaluation of Engineering Systems, Second
Edition, R. Billinton & R. N. Allan
2. RISK ASSESSMENT OF POWER SYSTEMS, Models, Methods, and
Applications, By W. Li (Translated by Dr. Fotuhi)
References:

1. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Engineers and Scientists,

Second edition, IEEE Press, H. Kumamoto, E. J. Henley,
2. Modeling for Reliability Analysis, IEEE Press, J. Pukite, P.
Pukite
3. Reliability of Computer Systems and Networks, John
Wiley, M. L. Shooman
4. An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability
Engineering, C. E. Eberling, McGraw Hill.
 Outline:
1. Introduction
Types of systems
Basic definition of reliability
Reliability indices and criteria
2. Foundations of probability theory
Probability concepts
Permutations and combinations
Practical engineering concepts
Probability distributions
Numerical characteristics of random variables
3. Application of binomial distribution
Binomial distribution concepts
Properties of binomial distribution concepts
Engineering applications
Impact of partial outputs, redundancy, unavailability, stand-by units
4. Network modeling and evaluation of simple systems (Both texts)
Concepts of network modeling
Computing reliability of series and parallel systems
Stand-by redundancy systems

5. Network modeling and evaluation of complex systems (Both texts)

System structure functions
Conditional probability approach
Cut-set method
Tie-set method
Connection matrix techniques
Fault tree building blocks
Procedure for fault tree construction
Multi-failure modes
6. Probability distributions in reliability evaluation
Terminology of distributions
The reliability functions
Hazard rate function and bath tub curve
The poisson and normal reliability function
The exponential reliability function
The Weibull, gamma, Raleigh, lognormal and uniform reliability
functions

7. System reliability evaluation using probability distributions

Series and parallel system reliability
Partially redundant systems
MTTF and MTTR
Stand-by systems
Wearout and component reliability
Maintenance and component reliability
8. Markov Process Fundamentals

Discrete Markov chains

Continuous Markov processes
General modeling concepts
State-space diagram
Stand-by and Mission oriented systems
Stochastic transitional matrix
Availability and reliability
Reliability evaluation of repairable systems

9. Frequency and duration techniques (both texts)

Frequency and duration concepts

Application to multi-state problems
Frequency balance approach
Two stage repair and installation process
• 10. Outage Models of System Components (From Li’s Book)

• 1 Introduction
• 2 Models of Independent Outages
• 2.1 Repairable Forced Failure
• 2.2 Aging Failure
• 2.2.1 Probability of Transition to Aging Failure
• 2.2.2 Unavailability Due to Aging Failure
• 2.2.3 Non-repairable Chance Failure
• 2.2.4 Planned Outage
• 2.2.5 Semi-forced Outage
• 2.2.6 Partial Failure Mode
• 2.2.7 Multiple Failure Mode
• 3 Models of Dependent Outages
• 3.1 Common-Cause Outage
• 3.1.1 Composite Model
• 3.1.2 Individual Model
• 3.1.3 Comparison between Composite and Individual Models
• 3.2 Component-Group Outage
• 3.3 Station-Originated Outage
• 3.4 Cascading Outage
• 3.5 Environment-Dependent Failure
• 4 Conclusions
• 11. Parameter Estimation in Outage Models (From Li’s book) (if time allows)

• 1 Introduction
• 2 Point Estimation of Mean and Variance of Failure Data
• 2.1 Sample Mean
• 2.2 Sample Variance
• 3 Interval Estimation of Mean and Variance of Failure Data
• 3.1 General Concept of Confidence Interval
• 3.2 Confidence Interval of Mean
• 3.3 Confidence Interval of Variance
• 4 Estimating Failure Frequency of Individual Components
• 4.1 Point Estimation
• 4.2 Interval Estimation
• 5 Estimating Probability from a Binomial Distribution
• 6 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data and Its Test
• 6.1 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data
• 6.2 Test of Experimental Distribution
• 7 Estimating Parameters in Aging Failure Models
• 7.1 Mean Life and Its Standard Deviation in the Normal Model
• 7.2 Shape and Scale Parameters in the Weibull Model
• 7.3 Example
• 8 Conclusions
12. Approximate system reliability evaluation
Approximate series and parallel system reliability
Network reduction technique
Minimal cut set/failure mode approach
Inclusion of scheduled maintenance
Common-mode failure

13. Monte Carlo simulation

Concepts of simulation
Simulation output
Application of MCS techniques

14. Maintenance
Concepts of maintenance
Reliability Centered Maintenance

15. Reliability Versus Resiliency

Mid-Terms and Final Exams:
There will be a final exam.

Projects

• Each of you will write a research paper/report on a topic

concerning reliability engineering
• If time allows, you should present your paper

Marking:

Assignments: 2
Final Project: 8
Final Exam: 10