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Chapter 4, Problem 5p
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4.5. The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will
rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 888-888-8888 Text me
years are as follows:
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YEAR MILEAGE for problem the app. Standard messaging rates may apply.
1 3,000
My Textbook Solutions
2 4,000
3 3,400
Operations Engineering Human

4 3,800 Management Economy Developme
12th Edition 16th Edition 2nd Edition
(1)
5 3,700 View all solutions
a) Forecast the mileage for next year (6th year) using a 2-year moving average.
b) Find the MAD based on the 2-year moving average. (Hint: You will have only 3 years of
matched data.)
c) Use a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of .4 and .6 to forecast next year’s
mileage. (The weight of .6 is for the most recent year.) What MAD results from using this
approach to forecasting? (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)
d) Compute the forecast for year 6 using exponential smoothing, an initial forecast for year 1 of
3,000 miles, and α = .5.
Step-by-step solution
Step 1 of 4
To find the forecast for C hospital for next two years using moving average method, calculate
MAD based on the moving average forecast and through two year weighted average technique
forecast for next two years mileage and forecast by exponential smoothing for year sixth.
Information given the five years with mileages and the forecast to be done on next two years hint
is there is only three years matched data available as .4 and .6 for weighted average & with initial
forecasting for year one is 3000 miles and is
Year Mileage
1 3000
2 4000
3 3400
4 3800
5 3700
Comment
Step 2 of 4
a.
To forecast the mileage for next year using 2 year moving average
Moving approach
Now substitute 3,000, 4,000, 3,400, 3800, 3,700 in demand in previous n periods and 2 in n
Hence the forecast mileage for next year (6th) using 2 year moving average is .
Comment
Step 3 of 4
b.
Find the Mean Average Deviation (MAD)
As per the hint substitute last 3 years data i.e. 3500, 3700, 3600 (from part (a)) in to the forecast
and 3400, 3800 and 3700 in the actual.
Hence, the Mean average deviation is

Comment
Step 4 of 4
c.
To find the weighted moving average & using MAD
The given weights are 0.4 &0.6 using three-year approach now multiply weights with last three
year
Now substitute use 3,600, 3,640 & 3,640 in forecast and 3,400, 3,800, & 3,700 in actual data
The mean average deviation (MAD) is
d.
To find out the exponential smoothing approach for year sixth
Given , substitute as shown below:
Hence the exponential smoothing for sixth year is
Comment
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Chapter 4, Solution 9P Chapter 4, Solution 4DQ
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Café Michigan’s manager, Gary Stark, suspects that demand for mocha latte coffees depends on
the price being charged. Based on historical observations, Gary has gathered the following data,
which show the numbers of these coffees sold over six different price values:
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PRICE NUMBER SOLD
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$2.70 760
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$3.50 510
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$2.00 980
$4.20 250 My Textbook Solutions
$3.10 320
$4.05 480
Management Economy Developme
Using these data, how many mocha latte coffees would be forecast to be sold according to 12th Edition 16th Edition 2nd Edition
(1)
simple linear regression if the price per cup were $2.80?
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Step 1 of 1
5013-4-31P AID: 1825 | 07/09/2013
RID: 852 | 18/10/2013
Forecast the trend projection to find the simple linear regression.
Let is the historical prices of coffee.
Let be the historical numbers of coffee sold.
Derive the least square equation using trend projection formula:
Where,
Compute the values of for various prices using the below table;
2.70 760 2,052 7.29
3.50 510 1,785 12.25
2.00 980 1,960 4.00
4.20 250 1,050 17.64
3.10 320 992 9.61
4.05 480 1,944 16.40
Total = Total = Total = Total =
Now compute the values of remaining variables in the formula using the above computed results;
Compute as below;
Where, and n = 6 (six different price values).
…… (1)
Compute as below:
Where, y = 3,300 and n = 6(six different price values).
…… (2)
Compute as below:
Where, = 67.19 and n = 6.
…… (3)
Now substitute the values computed in the above table in the formula given;
…… (4)
It is given that b is –277.62 [refer to Equation (4)], the average of y value is 550 [refer to Equation
(2)], and the average of the x values is 3.25 [refer to Equation (1)].
Now, calculate the following:
Where,
Now, substitute 550 for , 3.25 for , and –277.62 for b to get:
…… (5)
It is calculated that “a” is 1,454.58 [refer to Equation (5)], b is –227.62 [refer to Equation (4)], and
price per cup is $2.80.
Now, calculate the estimation of the regression equation:
Therefore, the estimation of regression equation is as follows:
Where,
Hence, the forecasted demand for the price $2.80 is .
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Information given on number of pints used from August 31st to October 5th is given in the table.
for problem the app. Standard messaging rates may apply.

Comment (1)
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Step 2 of 4
a)
Calculate the demand for the week of October 12th using 3 week moving approach as follows:
Now substitute 374, 368, 381 in demand in previous n periods and 3 in n
Hence, the demand for the week of October 12th using moving average is 374.33
Comment
Step 3 of 4
b)
Calculate the demand for the week of October 12th using three week weighted moving average
as follows:
The given weights are 0.6, 0.3, 0.1 using three-week approach now multiply weights with last
three week
Hence, the demand for the week of October 12th using three week weighted moving average is
372.9
Comment
Step 4 of 4
c)
To forecast for the week of October 12th using exponential smoothing approach as follows:
To determine new forecast substitute 0.2 for as follows:
Hence, using exponential Smoothing exponential method the forecast for October 12th is 374.25.
Comments (1)


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Step 1 of 6
To estimate the requirement through moving average method, weighted average method and
compare the new data to give superior results using graphical method. phone to post a question
Year Demand download link
1 7
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2 9 the app. Standard messaging rates may apply.
3 5
4 9
5 13

6 8 Management Economy Developme
(1)
7 12 View all solutions
8 13
9 9
10 11
11 7
Comment
Step 2 of 6
a. To plot the above table in graphical method and observe if any trends could be seen:
From the above graph, it is determined that there is no trends that could be seen and could call it
cycles as random variations.
Comment
Step 3 of 6
b. To find the moving average starting from year four to year twelve
Moving approach
Now substitute 9, 13,8,12,13,9,11,7 and 3 is n
Comment
Step 4 of 6
Hence substitute these values in to the graph
Year Demand Moving Average
1 7
2 9
3 5
4 9
5 13
6 8
7 12 10
8 13 11
9 9 11
10 11 11.33
11 7 11
12 9
Comment
Step 5 of 6
c. To find out the weighted average moving method starting from year four to year 12
The given weights are .1, .3, .6 substitute the values from year four with this use the 0.6 to the
fresh value
Now allocate the above values into graph
Year Demand Moving Average Weighted Moving Average
1 7
2 9
3 5
4 9
5 13
6 8
7 12 10 9
8 13 11 10.9
9 9 11 12.2
10 11 11.33 10.5
11 7 11 10.6
12 9 8.4
d.
Comment
Step 6 of 6
To compare the forecasts with original data and support the answer, both weighted average
moving method and moving method are equally good and bad. However, simple moving average
method is considerably better than weighted average method.
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a.
Find the forecast with exponential smoothing technique for the month of July. Walkthrough a one-time automated text message with a link to
for problem the app. Standard messaging rates may apply.
Now, based on the data given the analysis for the month June is 40 million and the forecast for
the same month is 42 million. Using exponential smoothing technique need to find out the
forecast for the month of July

(1)
As per the data given is 0.2 and substitute is 40 million 42 million. View all solutions
Hence, the forecast for the month of July is 41.6 million.
Comment
Step 2 of 3
b.
Forecast with exponential smoothing technique for the month of August
Now based on the information given the analysis of august month is 45 million, the forecast for
July month is 41.6 Million for 0.2 exponential smoothing. Forecast for the month of August is
As per the data given is 0.2 and substitute is 45 million 41.6 million
Hence the forecast for the month of August is 42.28 million.
Comment
Step 3 of 3
c.
Even though it contains very few data points, there is a trend in the data. Simple exponential
smoothing technique is not a superior process for data points in this type of trends.
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Step 1 of 6
Step 2 of 6
b. We'll send you a one-time
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To forecast January sales by using naïve method, 3 month moving average, six month weighted
average, exponential smoothing and trend projection methods
I. Forecast as per naïve method

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Naïve method assumes demand in the next period is equal to the demand in the recent period.
Now substitute January month demand 20 with December’s demand i.e. 23. As mentioned above a one-time automated text message with a link to
whatever the demand in December is equal to the demand in January so 23 is considered
Hence according to naïve method the forecast for January is 23.
Comment
Step 3 of 6

II. To forecast as per three month moving average method Management Economy Developme
(1)
Moving approach
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Now substitute 20, 21,23in demand in previous month’s n periods and 3 in n
Hence as per the moving average method the forecast is 21.33
Comment
Step 4 of 6
III. To forecast as per sixth month weighted average method
The given weights is 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, & 0.3 using three month approach now multiply
weights with last Sixth Month substitute 17, 18, 20, 20,21,23
Hence as per weighted average method the forecast is 20.6
IV. To forecast exponential smoothing for September month

Given
Hence, as per exponential smoothing for January is 20.63, when September demand is taken as
18.
Comment
Step 5 of 6
v. To forecast trend projection of the
A (Year) T At
1 20 20 1
2 21 42 4
3 15 45 9
4 14 56 16
5 13 65 25
6 16 96 36
7 17 119 49
8 18 144 64
9 20 180 81
10 20 200 100
11 21 231 121
12 23 276 144
Now substitute into this formula the given table
From the above table find out and
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Step 6 of 6
c.
Since the latter part of the trend shows trend from June onwards trend projection may be used in
this instance to forecast next March
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Step 1 of 5
Forecasting:
Forecasting is the method or technique that helps to estimate the future aspects of the business phone to post a question
or operation. Demand forecasting is used in the companies to estimate the amount of product or We'll send you a one-time
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service that needs to be delivered in the particular period.
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Step 2 of 5
Given information
The actual number of patients for every 6 weeks is given as follows:

(1)
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It is given that actual demand levels are 0.333 on the present period, 0.25 on one period ago, 0.25
on two periods ago, and 0.167 on three periods ago.
Comment
Step 3 of 5
a)
Determine the value of forecast using weighted moving average:
Weighted moving average is calculated by multiplying the adding the values attained by
multiplying weight and demand of the last four weeks. Then, divide the attained value with the
sum of weights.
The weighted moving average using the present method is .
Comment
Step 4 of 5
b)
Determine the weighted moving average if the weights were 20, 15, 15, and 10 respectively:
sum of weights.
Hence, weighted moving average for this method is . It shows that there is no change in
the weighted moving average.
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Step 5 of 5
c)
Determine the forecast for week 7 if the weights are 0.40, 0.30, 0.20, and 0.10:
sum of weights.
Hence, the forecasted value is .
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Step 2 of 9
Consider the temperatures given for the past week: for problem the app. Standard messaging rates may apply.

(1)
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Comment
Step 3 of 9
a)
Determine the temperature for today using the 3-day moving average method as shown below :
Hence, the temperature for today using the 3-day moving average method is .
Comment
Step 4 of 9
b)
Calculate the two-day moving average of temperature:
Hence, the temperature for today using the 2-day moving average method is .
Comment
Step 5 of 9
c)
Compute the 2-day moving average forecasts for the week and the absolute error as shown
below:
The final forecasts and errors are as follows:
Comment
Step 6 of 9
Note: The errors are calculated by subtracting the forecasts from the actual data given.
Determine the MAD based on two-day moving average forecast:

Therefore, the mean absolute deviation based on 2-day moving average is .
Comment
Step 7 of 9
d)
Calculate the squared errors for 2-day moving average forecasts, as shown below:
The final values are as follows:
Determine the mean squared error based on two-day moving average, as shown below:
Hence, mean squared error based on two-day moving average is .
Comment
Step 8 of 9
e)
Calculate the absolute percentage error, as shown below:

Comment
Step 9 of 9
Find out the mean absolute percentage error with two-day moving average:
Hence, the mean absolute percentage error for two-day moving average is .
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Step 1 of 6
To estimate the two month moving average and three month moving average by plotting in a
graph by the given table, using MAD method determine the superiority between two month phone to post a question
moving average or three month moving average and using exponential smoothing method do the We'll send you a one-time
forecast for every month and determine is good. download link
Information given in the table showing month wise price per chip and for the exponential
smoothing for January is .1 then is .3 and finally is .5 888-888-8888 Text me

Comment a one-time automated text message with a link to
Step 2 of 6
a.
To plot the graph using the given data for two month moving average
Moving average =
Now substitute 1.7, 1.85, 1.9, 1.87, 1.8, 1.83, 1.7, 1.6, 1.7, and 1.75 in demand in previous month’s Operations Engineering Human
n periods and 2 in n 12th Edition 16th Edition 2nd Edition
(1)
View all solutions
Month Price Per Chip 2 Month Moving Average
January 1.8
February 1.67
March 1.7 1.735
April 1.85 1.685
May 1.9 1.775
June 1.87 1.875
July 1.8 1.885
August 1.83 1.835
September 1.7 1.815
October 1.6 1.765
November 1.7 1.675
December 1.75 1.725
b.
To plot the graph using three month moving average
Moving average
Now substitute 1.85, 1.9, 1.87, 1.8, 1.83, 1.7, 1.6, 1.7, and 1.75 in demand in previous month’s
periods and 3 in n
Month Price Per Chip 3 Month Moving Average
January 1.8
February 1.67
March 1.7
April 1.85 1.7233
May 1.9 1.74
June 1.87 1.8166
July 1.8 1.8733
August 1.83 1.8566
September 1.7 1.8333
October 1.6 1.7766
November 1.7 1.7266
December 1.75 1.6833

Comment
Step 3 of 6
c.
Forecast using MAD to find superiority between two month moving average and three day
moving average
I. To calculate 2 month average using absolute deviation
II. To calculate 3 month average using absolute deviation
3 Month
Price Per 2 Month Moving Absolute Absolute
Month Moving
Chip Average Deviation Deviation
Average
January 1.8
February 1.67
March 1.7 1.735 0.035
(1.85-1.685)
April 1.85 1.685 0.165 0.13
0.165
May 1.9 1.775 0.125 0.125 0.16
June 1.87 1.875 0.005 0.005 0.05
July 1.8 1.885 0.085 0.085 0.07
August 1.83 1.835 0.005 0.005 0.03
September 1.7 1.815 0.115 0.115 0.13
October 1.6 1.765 0.165 0.165 0.18
November 1.7 1.675 0.025 0.025 0.03
December 1.75 1.725 0.025 0.025 0.07
Total 0.715 Total 0.85
MAD=Total/10 0.075 MAD=Total/10 0.088
Therefore, since the MAD for 2 Month average value is less than 3 month moving average.
Hence, it is evident that 2 month moving average gives better forecast.
Comment
Step 4 of 6
d.
To forecast exponential smoothing technique with different 0.1, 0.3, &0.5
I. To forecast with exponential smoothing technique with
Given
Note: Rounded the forecast values for easy decimal calculation
A F( =0.1) D=F-A
1.8 1.8 0
1.67 1.8 0.13
1.7 1.79 0.09
1.85 1.78 0.07
1.9 1.79 0.11
1.87 1.80 0.07
1.8 1.80 0
1.83 1.80 0.03
1.7 1.81 0.11
1.65 1.80 0.15
1.7 1.78 0.08
1.75 1.77 0.02

Total 0.8675
MAD=Total/12 0.071
Hence, the exponential smoothing of is 0.071
Comment
Step 5 of 6
II. To estimate the exponential smoothing of
Given
A F( =0.3) D = F-A
1.8 1.8 0
1.67 1.8 0.13
1.7 1.76 0.06
1.85 1.74 0.11
1.9 1.77 0.13
1.87 1.81 0.06
1.8 1.83 0.03
1.83 1.82 0.01
1.7 1.82 0.12
1.65 1.79 0.14

1.7 1.75 0.05
1.75 1.73 0.02
Total 0.8675
MAD=Total/12 0.071
Hence the forecast of exponential smoothing of is 0.071
Comment
Step 6 of 6
III. To estimate the exponential smoothing of
Given
A F=( ) D= F–A
1.8 1.8 0
1.67 1.8 0.13
1.7 1.74 0.04
1.85 1.72 0.13
1.9 1.78 0.12
1.87 1.84 0.03
1.8 1.86 0.06
1.83 1.83 0.01

1.7 1.83 0.13
1.65 1.76 0.11
1.7 1.71 0.01
1.75 1.7 0.05
Total 0.82
MAD=Total/12 0.0683
Hence the forecast of exponential smoothing of is 0.0683
Hence in all the ’s such as 0.1, 0.3, 0.5,
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Chapter 4, Problem 10P Bookmark Show all steps: ON
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Step 2 of 6

(1)
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Comment
Step 3 of 6
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Step 4 of 6
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Step 5 of 6
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Step 6 of 6
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Step 1 of 6
a.
Exponential smoothing: phone to post a question
A forecasting technique with weighted-moving-average in which the data points are weighted by download link
an exponential function is termed as exponential smoothing. The below formula is used to
determine the new forecast:
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F1 denotes new forecast
Ft-1 denotes previous period forecast
a denotes smoothing constant

At-1 denotes previous period actual demand
Comment

Step 2 of 6 Management Economy Developme
(1)
Determine the new forecast: View all solutions
It is given that the smoothing constant is 0.3 and the first year forecast registration is 5,000
people.
The spreadsheet is used to calculate the new forecast for the each year. The below table shows
the excel formula used.
Comment
Step 3 of 6
The below table shows that new forecast value of each year:
The forecast registration using the exponential smoothing is calculated using the formula F1
from year 2 through year 11.
Comment
Step 4 of 6
b.
Mean absolute deviation:
The initial measure of the entire forecast error for a model is termed as mean absolute deviation
(MAD). The sum of absolute values of the individual forecast errors is divided by the periods (n)
to calculate the value. The formula is given below:
Comment
Step 5 of 6
Calculate mean absolute deviation:
The above formula is used in the spreadsheet given below:
Comment
Step 6 of 6
Mean absolute deviation is calculated using the below excel. First the forecast values are
calculate using the F1 equation. Further the error is calculated by deducting the actual and the
forecast. The errors are converted to absolute. It means the negative value are converted into
positive. Then the absolute values are added. The total absolute value is divided by the number
of years to obtain mean absolute deviation.
Hence, the mean absolute deviation is registrations.
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Step 1 of 1
To find out the exponential smoothing on Friday for BMC and MD restaurants
Days Actual Demand Forecast Demand We'll send you a one-time
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Monday 88 88
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Tuesday 72 88 By providing your phone number, you agree to rec

Wednesday 68 84
Thursday 48 80
Friday

(1)
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Given ,
Hence the exponential smoothing for BM and MD on Friday is 72.
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Step 1 of 10
Information given about the H transplantations held in year 1-5 need to find with given
information for exponential smoothing use 0.6 and 0.9 as the smoothing constant, years given phone to post a question
for trend projection for years one to six We'll send you a one-time
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a.
To forecast the exponential smoothing constant .6 and .9 for two to six years
Years Exponential Smoothing
1 45

(1)
4 56
5 58
6 -
The and at year 1 demand were 41

The error is calculated as shown below:
Year A Ft
1 45 41 4.0
2 50 43.4 6.6
3 52 47.4 4.6
4 56 50.2 5.8
5 58 53.7 4.3
6 56.3
S = 25.3
Comment
Step 3 of 10
The and at year 1 demand were 41
The error is calculated as shown below:
Year A Ft | Error |
1 45 41 4.0
2 50 44.6 5.4
3 52 49.5 2.5
4 56 51.8 4.2
5 58 55.6 2.4
6 57.8
S = 18.5
Hence, the forecasting for exponential smoothing for is 56.3 and forecast for
exponential smoothing for is 57.8.
Comment
Step 4 of 10
b.
To forecast the moving average for the WG hospital for the year four to six
Now substitute 45, 50, 52, 56, 58 in demand in previous n periods and 3 in n
Hence the forecasting for three-year moving average of WG hospital is 55.333
Comment
Step 5 of 10
c.
To forecast the trend projection demand for year one to six years for WG hospital
X Y XY
1 45 45 1
2 50 100 4
3 52 156 9
4 56 224 16
5 58 290 25
• To find
Need to find and
• To find , Where and
• To find , Where and
• To find , Where 55 and n is are 5

Comment
Step 6 of 10
Then substitute 815 for xy, 3 & 52.5 for , 5 for n, is 55 and is 9
To find
Substitute is 52.5, is 3 and b is 3.2
Therefore, the trend projection of the demand for WG hospital is
Equation is then
Comment
Step 7 of 10
d.
1. MAD using exponential smoothing method using
Substitute five year data into the forecast where forecasted values are 45.4, 47.36, 50.144,
53.656, 56.26 where n is 5
Therefore, MAD projection value for Exponential smoothing is 2
Comment
Step 8 of 10
2. MAD using exponential smoothing method using

55.746, 57.757 and n is 5
Therefore, MAD projection value for exponential smoothing is 0.34
Comment
Step 9 of 10
3. MAD using moving average technique for 3 years
Substitute three year data into the forecast where forecasted values are 49, 52.667, and 58
Therefore, using MAD projections for moving average is 6.1665
Comment
Step 10 of 10
4. To forecast MAD using trend projection:
x Actual Trend Projection forecast Actual forecast
1 45 Y = 42.6 + 3.2(1) 45.8 0.8
2 50 Y = 42.6 + 3.2(2) 49 1
3 52 Y = 42.6 + 3.2(3) 52.2 0.2
4 56 Y = 42.6 + 3.2(4) 55.4 0.6
5 58 Y = 42.6 + 3.2(5) 58.6 0.6
6 Y = 42.6 + 3.2(6) 61.8
Substitute the five year forecast data which is 45.8, 49, 52.2, 55.4, 58.6 and n is 5
Therefore, trend projection using MAD method is and trend projection is appropriate
method to use.
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Step 1 of 3
Formula to calculate MAD and MSE are given below:

…… (1) We'll send you a one-time
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Where:
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…… (2)
Where:

Comment Management Economy Developme
(1)
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Step 2 of 3
Now, calculate the MAD and MSE for Method 1 using formula (1) and (2) as shown below:
Hence, the MAD and MSE values for method 1 are 0.125, and 0.021 respectively.
Comment
Step 3 of 3
Similarly, calculate the MAD and MSE values for Method 2, as shown below:
Hence, the MAD and MSE values for method 2 are 0.128 , and 0.018 respectively.
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Step 1 of 7
a)
Calculate forecast using the following formula, using the following formulas, as shown below: phone to post a question
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Step 2 of 7

(1)
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The forecast for 6 th year is 555.
Comment
Step 3 of 7
b)
Calculate Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), using the following formula, as shown below:
Note: For periods whose actual is not given, can’t be used in calculating MAD.
Comment
Step 4 of 7
Comment
Step 5 of 7
The MAD is 67.
Comment
Step 6 of 7
c)
Calculate Mean Squared Error (MSE), using the following formula, as shown below:
Note: For periods whose actual is not given, can’t be used in calculating MSE.
Comment
Step 7 of 7
The MSE for the data is 4558.4.
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Step 1 of 8
a)
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Step 2 of 8

Available sales data for a car company is given below: a one-time automated text message with a link to
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(1)
Step 3 of 8
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Step-1: In order to apply the trend regression method, first calculate the following parameters for
the available data, as shown below:
Comment
Step 4 of 8
Step-2: Calculate the averages and for the given data using the following formulas as
shown below:
The and are 3 and 522 respectively.
Comment
Step 5 of 8
Step-3: Calculate the slope ( b ) and intercept ( a ) of the following data using the following
formulas as shown below:
Slope ( b ) and intercept ( a ) are 33.6 and 421.2 respectively.
Comment
Step 6 of 8
Step-4: Calculate the forecast for year 6 using the following regression equation as shown below:
The forecast for year-6 is 622.8
Comment
Step 7 of 8
b)
Mean absolute deviation (MAD): Average of absolute errors
Calculate MAD using the following as shown below:

Mean absolute deviation is 5.6 .
Comment
Step 8 of 8
c)
Mean Squared Error (MSE): Average of squared errors
Calculate MSE using the following as shown below:
Mean Squared Error is 32.88.
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Step 1 of 7
To forecast the exponential smoothing technique for the sales of Volkswagen beetles in Nevada
up to 2010 and apply MAD technique: phone to post a question
Information given the exponential smoothing constants 0.3, 0.6, 0.9 and need to calculate MAD We'll send you a one-time
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using the data given:
Years f 888-888-8888 Text me

1 360 a one-time automated text message with a link to
2 389
3 410
4 381

(1)
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Step 2 of 7
a) To forecast the exponential smoothing technique for constant 0.3
The
Hence the forecasted value for Volkswagen beetles in Nevada up to the year 2010 using 0.3
constant is .
Comment
Step 3 of 7
b) To forecast the exponential smoothing with constant 0.6
The
Hence the forecasted values for Volkswagen beetles in Nevada for 2010 using exponential
smoothing method with constant 0.6 is
Comment
Step 4 of 7
c. To forecast with exponential smoothing with constant 0.9 for Volkswagen beetles sales in
Nevada in 2010
The
Hence the forecasted value for the year 2010 by applying exponential smoothing technique is
Comment
Step 5 of 7
2. a)
To forecast the exponential smoothing values with applying MAD technique

377.14, 376.20 where n is 5
Hence applying MAD technique for exponential smoothing constant 0.3 is
Comment
Step 6 of 7
b)
To forecast with MAD techniques for Volkswagen beetles using exponential smoothing constant
0.6
375.75, 374.47 where n is 5
Hence the forecast applying MAD technique for exponential smoothing constant 0.6 for
Volkswagen beetles in Nevada up to the year 2010 is
Comment
Step 7 of 7
c)
To forecast with MAD technique with exponential smoothing constant 0.9 for Volkswagen
beetles in Nevada for the year up to 2010
Substitute five year data into the forecast where forecasted values are386.1, 407.61, 383.661,
369.56, 373.556 where n is 5
Hence using MAD technique with exponential smoothing constant 0.9 for Volkswagen beetles in
Nevada up to the year 2010 is
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Step 1 of 2
To estimate the exponential smoothing constant

In general ranges from 0.1-.50. When is high the weights are given for higher data and phone to post a question
when is low it’s the weights will be for the small data. 0.1 is for the period more than 5 We'll send you a one-time
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and 0.5 for the periods less than 5.
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and it is for the second most recent period. Therefore, the weight of is 0.25.
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Therefore the exponential smoothing constant
Comment
Step 2 of 2
To forecast with exponential smoothing constant =0.25 to find out the demand for the period
five
Therefore the forecasted demand for the period five by using exponential smoothing method is
49.
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Step 1 of 8
Forecasting:
It is the technique that helps to evaluate on the future aspects of the business or operation. phone to post a question
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Step 2 of 8
Given information:
The income generated for the period of February to July is given below:

(1)
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On the basis of assumption, the initial forecast of the firm for February is $65,000 and initial
trend adjustment is zero. The smoothing constant chosen are a = 0.1 and ß = 0.2.
Comment
Step 3 of 8
Forecast for month February to August using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is given
below:
Working notes:
The unadjusted forecast for February is given as $65 and trend estimate for February is 0.
The formula to compute the unadjusted forecast (F t ) is given below:
It is calculated by adding two values. First value is the multiple of smoothing constant a and the
actual demand (income) of previous period. Second value is calculated by multiplying the value
attained by subtracting trend estimate of previous period from the unadjusted forecast of
previous period with the value attained by subtracting a from 1.
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Step 4 of 8
The formula to compute the trend estimate (T t ) is given below:
It is calculated by adding two values. First value is the multiple of ß and the value attained by
subtracting the forecast of previous period from the present period. second value is the multiple
of trend estimate of previous period and the value attained by subtracting ß from 1.
Comment
Step 5 of 8
The formula to compute the adjusted forecast (FITt ) is given below:
It is calculated by adding the unadjusted forecast and the trend estimate.
Comment
Step 6 of 8
Calculate the unadjusted forecast for March (F t ):
Hence, the unadjusted forecast for March is .
Comment
Step 7 of 8
Calculate the trend estimate for March (T t ):
Hence, the trend estimate for March is .

Comment
Step 8 of 8
Calculate the adjusted forecast for March (FIT t ):
Hence, the adjusted forecast of March is . Similarly, this calculation continues for the
remaining months.
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Chapter 4, Problem 21P 1 Bookmark Show all steps: ON
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Step 1 of 17
Forecasting:
Forecasting is the planning tool that helps the management to face the uncertainty in the future. phone to post a question
It is assumption based on the knowledge, judgment, and experience of the management and it We'll send you a one-time
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mostly rely on the present and past analysis.
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Step 2 of 17
Given information:
Based on the given information, it is necessary to forecast the trend adjusted exponential
smoothing for month 5 and month 6. The actual demand is given as 12, 17, 20, 19, 24, 21, 31, 38,
and 36 for months 1 to 9 respectively. Smoothing constants are given as α is 0.2 and β is 0.4.
Initial forecasting value is given as F1 is 11 units and trend over a period T1 is 2 units.

(1)
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Step 3 of 17
Trend adjusted exponential smoothing model for 2 nd month:
Actual demand for month 1 is given as 12, initial forecasting value is given as F1 is 11 units and
trend over a period T1 is 2. Value of a is given as 0.2 and ß is given as 0.4.
Forecast for month 2:
Forecasting for month 2 is calculate by adding two values. First value is the multiple of a and
actual demand of month 1. Second value is the multiple of the value attained by subtracting a
from 1 and the sum of forecast and trend of month 1.
Hence, the forecast for month 2 is .
Comment
Step 4 of 17
Trend for month 2:

Trend for month 2 is calculated by adding two values. First value is the multiple of ß with the
value attained by subtracting forecasting of first month from second month. Second value is the
multiple of trend of first month with the value attained by subtracting ß from 1.
Hence, the trend for month 2 is .
Comment
Step 5 of 17
Forecast including trend for month 2:
Forecast including trend for month 2 is calculated by adding the forecast for month 2 and the
trend for month 2.
Hence, the forecast including trend for month 2 is .
Comment
Step 6 of 17
Trend adjusted exponential smoothing model for 3 rd month:
Actual demand for month 2 is given as 17, initial forecasting value is given as F2 is 12.8 units and
trend over a period T2 is 1.92. Value of a is given as 0.2 and ß is given as 0.4.
Comment
Step 7 of 17
Trend for month 3:
value attained by subtracting forecasting of second month from third month. Second value is the
multiple of trend of second month with the value attained by subtracting ß from 1.
Comment
Step 8 of 17
trend for month 3.
Comment
Step 9 of 17
Trend adjusted exponential smoothing model for 4 th month:
Actual demand for month 3 is given as 20, initial forecasting value is given as F3 is 15.18 units
and trend over a period T3 is 2.10. Value of a is given as 0.2 and ß is given as 0.4.
Comment
Step 10 of 17
Trend for month 4:
value attained by subtracting forecasting of third month from fourth month. Second value is the
multiple of trend of third month with the value attained by subtracting ß from 1.
Comment
Step 11 of 17
trend for month 4.
Comment
Step 12 of 17
Comment
Step 13 of 17
Trend for month 5:
value attained by subtracting forecasting of fourth month from fifth month. Second value is the
multiple of trend of fourth month with the value attained by subtracting ß from 1.
Comment
Step 14 of 17
trend for month 5.
Comment
Step 15 of 17
Comment
Step 16 of 17
Trend for month 6:
value attained by subtracting forecasting of fifth month from sixth month. Second value is the
multiple of trend of fifth month with the value attained by subtracting ß from 1.
Comment
Step 17 of 17
trend for month 6.
Inference:
Hence, forecast including trend(FIT) for month 5 is and for month 6 is

.
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Step 1 of 6
a.
To compute MAD and MAPE phone to post a question
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Substitute the months sales of March, April, May and June sales and management forecast
reports and n is 4 By providing your phone number, you agree to rec
Hence using MAD technique the computed value is 14.5

(1)
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Step 2 of 6
Using MAPE technique
Substitute months march, April, may, June months sales and management reports for the
following and n I s 4
Hence using MAPE technique the forecasted value is 15.29%
Comment
Step 3 of 6
b. To forecast the given data with naïve method
Naïve Method: According to the naïve method the demand is assumed in the next period is equal
to the demand in the most recent period. The table with naïve method is given below
Month Unit Sales Management forecast Naïve method
February 83
March 101 120 83
April 96 114 101
May 89 110 96
June 108 108 89
Comment
Step 4 of 6
Using Naïve table compute the MAD
Substitute the months sales of March, April, May and June sales and management forecast
reports and n is 4
Hence using MAD for naïve technique the forecasted value is 12.25
Comment
Step 5 of 6
Using MAPE technique for Naïve Method
Hence the Forecasted value for Naïve method using MAPE technique is 12.12%
Comment
Step 6 of 6
c.
Based on lower forecast error, the Naïve method is recommended for the organization.
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Step 1 of 1

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Recommended solutions for you in Chapter 4 (1)
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Chapter 4, Problem 3P Chapter 4, Problem 5P
Refer to Problem. Develop a forecast for years 2 4.5. The Carbondale Hospital is considering the
through 12 using exponential smoothing with α = .4 purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will
and a forecast for year 1... rest partly on the anticipated...
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To forecast the demand in the next season in the next year if MR. AM project sales increases to
1,200 phone to post a question
Need to use focus forecasting to do this. We'll send you a one-time
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Sales1 Sales2 Total sum Average

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200 250 450 225
350 300 650 325
150 165 315 157.5 My Textbook Solutions
300 285 585 292.5
Total - 1000
(1)
View all solutions
Since the 250 is an average for the sales 1 and sales 2 we need to find the constants values by
dividing with 250 with sales 1 and sales 2
Sales one constant
Sales 1 Calculation Answer
200
350 1.4
150 0.6
300 1.2
Comment
Step 2 of 3
Sales two constants
Sales 2 Calculation Answer
250 1
300 1.2
165 = 0.66
285 1.14
Comment
Step 3 of 3
Constants for the next year
Average sales 1 Average sales 2 Average of both
0.8 1 0.9
1.4 1.2 1.3
0.6 0.66 0.63
1.2 1.14 1.17
Use this average constants values to get the forecasted demand for next year. The forecasted
average if the demand increase to 1,200 radicals is 300
Hence the forecasted values for the seasons fall, winter, spring and summer is
.
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Step 1 of 3
Step 2 of 3
To forecast the demand for Mr. GK, the demand data for all the seasons of the four years are We'll send you a one-time
needed. download link
Season Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 888-888-8888 Text me
Winter 1400 1200 1000 900 By providing your phone number, you agree to rec
Spring 1500 1400 1600 1500
Summer 1000 2100 2000 1900
Fall 600 750 650 500
Total 4500 5450 5250 4800 Operations Engineering Human

(1)
Average 1125 1362.5 1312.5 1200
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Calculation of total average over all seasons:
Therefore, the total average demand over all seasons is 1,250
Calculation of average over spring demand:
Comment
Step 3 of 3
Total demand for Year 5 is 5600 which was forecasted by Mr. GK

Now, calculate the forecast for every individual season by multiplying the average constant of
that particular season with the average demand of that season of Year 5.
Calculation of spring index
The demand forecast for sailboats for spring 2011 is:
Hence, the demand level of sailboats in the spring of Year 5 will be 1680 sailboats.
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5013-4-28P AID: 1825 | 07/09/2013

RID: 852 | 18/10/2013 phone to post a question
Computation of seasonal indices: download link
The attendance of the LA to DW for the years 2007, 2008, and 2009 is given below:
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Season 2007 2008 2009

Winter 73 65 89 the app. Standard messaging rates may apply.
Spring 104 82 146

Summer 168 124 205
Fall 74 52 98

Now, forecast the total of the attendance and take the average for the following information Management Economy Developme
given. 12th Edition 16th Edition 2nd Edition
(1)
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Season 2007 2008 2009
Winter 73 65 89
Spring 104 82 146
Summer 168 124 205
Fall 74 52 98
Total 419 323 538
Averages 104.75 80.75 134.5
Now, find the average of the years 2007, 2008, and 2009
The total attendance for the year 2007 is 419, and the seasons given are 4.
Average of the year 2007:
…… (1)
…… (2)
…… (3)
Now, find the constants with averages.
To find the constants with the average,
The attendance in the month is divided by the average of the year.
Season 2007 2008 2009
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
This table can be termed as Equation (4)
The constant values for each season are given in Equation (4).
Now, calculate the seasonal indices of the given data.
To calculate average indices, first add all the constant values and divide by three (since there are
only three years given).
Season 2007 2008 2009 Average
Winter 0.697 0.805 0.662
Spring 0.993 1.015 1.086
Summer 1.664 1.536 1.524
Fall 0.705 0.644 0.729
Hence, the seasonal indices of the data are
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Step 1 of 5
The demand for a product moves upwards during peak seasons and moves downward during
sleek periods. These regular variations in the demand are known as seasonal variations and are phone to post a question
a result of recurring events like weather or holidays. The forecasted values of demand must be We'll send you a one-time
adjusted for seasonal variation to obtain a realistic estimate of the forecast. download link
Comment 888-888-8888 Text me

Step 2 of 5
Calculate the forecasted values for energy use for the four quarters of year 25 as follows:
Calculate the forecast for quarter 101 of Year 2011 i.e. winter as follows:

Where D is the estimated demand per the trend line and 12th Edition 16th Edition 2nd Edition
(1)
Q is the sequential quarter number of year 25
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Comment
Step 3 of 5
Calculate the forecast for quarter 102 of Year 2011 i.e. spring as follows:
Where D is the estimated demand per the trend line and
Comment
Step 4 of 5
Calculate the forecast for quarter 103 of Year 2011 i.e. summer as follows:
Comment
Step 5 of 5
Calculate the forecast for quarter 104 of Year 2011 i.e. fall as follows:
Therefore, the forecast energy use for the four quarters of year 25, beginning with winter is
96.34,132.94,169.80 and 85.20 million of kilowatt hours.
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Linear regression analysis: It is a straight line mathematical approach to describe the functional
relationship between independent and dependent variables. phone to post a question
The linear regression equation is shown below: We'll send you a one-time
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…… (1)
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(1)
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Step 2 of 3
(a)
Prepare the table and calculate the values of , and as shown below:
Now, calculate the value of m using the values of , and as shown below:
Thus, the value of y-axis intercept (m) is 18
Similarly, calculate the value of c using the values of , and as shown below:
Thus, the value of slope of regression line (c) is 126
Substitute the values of m and c in linear regression equation (1)
Now, formulate the excel spreadsheet using the regression equation as shown below:
Table 2
Comment
Step 3 of 3
The following results are obtained:
Thus, the forecast of the number of disk drives of the next year (6th year) is 234 disk drives. The
MSE (Mean Squared Error) is 160 and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) is 13.23.
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Step 1 of 8
The objective is to forecast with trend analysis and predict the number of patients Dr. SS will see
in the years 11 and 12 as a function of time phone to post a question
The historical data of Dr. SS for the patients he treated is given in the table below. We'll send you a one-time
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Year Number of patients Robbery rate per 1000 population

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1 36 58.3
2 33 61.1
3 40 73.4 My Textbook Solutions
4 41 75.7
5 40 81.1
6 55 89.0 (1)
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7 60 101.1
8 54 94.8
9 58 103.3
10 61 116.2
Comment
Step 2 of 8
To forecast with trend analysis for historical data of Dr. SS
Trend analysis:
X (years) Y (Number of years) XY X Y

1 36 36 1 1296
2 33 66 4 1089
3 40 120 9 1600
4 41 164 16 1681
5 40 200 25 1600
6 55 330 36 3025
7 60 420 49 3600
8 54 432 64 2916
9 58 522 81 3364
10 61 610 100 3721
TOTAL=
Comment
Step 3 of 8
Trend analysis formula:
Where
Comment
Step 4 of 8
To find:
To find
To find :
Where, x = 55 and n = 10.

Comment
Step 5 of 8
To find :
Where, y is 478 and n is 10.
Then, substitute , is 5.5, 47.8, and n is 10:
Comment
Step 6 of 8
To find
Where,
Substitute 47.8, 5.5 is and b is 3.285
Comment
Step 7 of 8
a.
To predict the number of patients Dr. SS will treat in the 11th year
Use trend projection method to predict the number of patients Dr. SS will treat.
Where, a is 29.733, b is 3.285, and x is year 11.

Hence, the number of patients Dr. SS will treat in the 11th year is 65.86; taking the round off
value, the number of patients he will treat is .
Comment
Step 8 of 8
b.
To predict the number of patients Dr. SS will treat in the 12th year
Use trend projection method to predict the number of patients Dr. SS will treat.
Where, a is 29.733, b is 3.285, and x is year 12.
Hence, the number of patients Dr. SS will treat in the twelfth year as per tend projected is 69.15;
taking round off value, the number of patients she will treat is .
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homework questions
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Step 1 of 3
a.
To forecast with exponential smoothing method and to forecast with 25th week and phone to post a question
Exponential smoothing: download link
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Now, substitute the given data with the formula: the app. Standard messaging rates may apply.
Week Calls Exponential smoothing

1 50 50
2 35

3 25 (1)
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4 40
5 45
6 35
7 20
8 30
9 35
10 20
11 15
12 40
13 55
14 35
15 25
16 35
17 55
18 40
19 35
20 60
21 75
22 50
23 40
24 65
25
Hence, the forecast 911 system with exponential smoothing with is .
Comment
Step 2 of 3
b.
To forecast with
Week Calls Exponential smoothing
1 50
2 35
3 25
4 40
5 45
6 35
7 20
8 30
9 35
10 20
11 15
12 40
13 55
14 35
15 25
16 35
17 55
18 40
19 35
20 60
21 75
22 50
23 40
24 65
25
Hence, the forecast with exponential smoothing is .
Comment
Step 3 of 3
c.
To justify which smoothing constant provides a superior forecast
If actual demand is eighty-five, then gives the better result.
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Step 1 of 3
Step 2 of 3
• Forecast for month 2 We'll send you a one-time
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Using method:
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Using method:
Using forecast including trend

(1)
• Forecast for month 3 View all solutions
Using method:
Using method:
• Forecast for month 4
Using method:
Using method:
• Forecast for month 5:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Comment
Step 3 of 3
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Using method:
Hence, the trend-adjusted exponential smoothing method for the 911 call data for month 25 is
. Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing is much better than exponential smoothing. In
this, we can calculate using and .
Comment


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Step 1 of 12
To forecast the city cycles selling the z-10 mountain bike for the months January to May in
exponential smoothing method and moving average method and find which method is accurate; phone to post a question
if May month sales are 405, complete the table columns with mean absolute deviation method. We'll send you a one-time
download link
Given information: for both the A and B sales turnover from the month January to May is given in
the table below; need to find with exponential smoothing and moving average method
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Months Sales A B A’s Error B’s Error
January 400
February 380 400

March 410
April 375
May 12th Edition 16th Edition 2nd Edition
(1)
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Comment
Step 2 of 12
a.
To forecast the sales of A and B from January to April through linear trend regression
Linear trend regression analysis:
Comment
Step 3 of 12
To find the above equation, need to find the equation for .
Where, a is:
Where, b is:
In this problem:
Substitute the data according to the given formulation:
x Y XY X
1 480 480 1
2 380 760 4
3 410 1230 9
4 375 1500 16
Comment
Step 4 of 12
To find
Need to find and
To find :
Where, x = 10 and n is 4.
To find :
Where, y is 1,565 and n is 4.
Then, substitute 3890 for XY, is 2.5 & 391.25 for ,4 is n:
b= 0-4.5
To find
Comment
Step 5 of 12
Substitute 391.25, 2.5, and b is–4.5:
Comment
Step 6 of 12
To forecast with Mr. A’s forecast with exponential smoothing method
Given substitute months sales from February to April and using
To forecast Ms. B’s with moving average method
Comment
Step 7 of 12
Substitute January, February, and March months demand and n is 3:
Substitute March, April, and May demand and n is 3:
Comment
Step 8 of 12
To fill the table with the values of Mr. A’s and Ms. B’s
Months Sales A B A’s Error B’s Error
January 400
February 380 400 20
March 410 398 12
April 375 399.2 396.66 24.2 21.66
May 405 396.78 388.33 5.8 16.67
Comment
Step 9 of 12
a.
To find the mean absolute deviation need forecast for Mr. A and Mr. B
Now, substitute the values as per exponential smoothing values for Mr. A and moving average
values for Mr. B and calculate the differences by using sales, and as given, consider May month
sales as 405.
Need to substitute the data given for mean absolute deviation method.
Since the data entered in the modulus, there is no negative value.
Comment
Step 10 of 12
Mean Absolute Deviation for Mr. A
Mean Absolute Deviation for Mr. B
Comment
Step 11 of 12
b.
To forecast based on calculations which data are accurate.
Comment
Step 12 of 12
Hence, by the above analysis, MR. A’s forecast is more accurate.
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Step 1 of 2
a.
To forecast the historical data of SS& L using exponential smoothing method phone to post a question
Exponential smoothing method: download link
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Substitute using . Forecast for the first year is 0.25

(1)
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Hence, the forecasting for SS&L Company for exponential smoothing method is .
• To forecast SS&L company with trend analysis method
Trend analysis:
Substitute Trend analysis with the given formula
y x xy x
0.25 1 0.25 2
0.24 2 0.48 4
0.24 3 0.72 6
0.26 4 1.04 8
0.25 5 1.25 10
0.3 6 1.8 12
0.31 7 2.17 14
0.32 8 2.56 16
0.24 9 2.16 18
0.26 10 2.6 20
0.25 11 2.75 22
0.33 12 3.96 24
0.5 13 6.5 26
0.95 14 13.3 28
1.7 15 25.5 30
2.3 16 36.8 32
2.8 17 47.6 34
2.8 18 50.4 36
2.7 19 51.3 38
3.9 20 78 40
4.9 21 102.9 42
5.3 22 116.6 44
6.2 23 142.6 46
4.1 24 98.4 48
4.5 25 112.5 50
6.1 26 158.6 52
7.7 27 207.9 54
10.1 28 282.8 56
15.2 29 440.8 58
18.1 30 543 60
24.1 31 747.1 62
25.6 32 819.2 64
30.3 33 999.9 66
36 34 1224 68
31.1 35 1088.5 70
31.7 36 1141.2 72
38.5 37 1424.5 74
47.9 38 1820.2 76
49.1 39 1914.9 78
55.8 40 2232 80
70.1 41 2874.1 82
70.9 42 2977.8 84
79.1 43 3401.3 86
94 44 4136 88
787.3 990 29337.94 1980
To find
Where, y is 787.3 and n is 44
To find
Where, and n is 44
To find
Substitute 29,337.94 for xy, 22.5 and 17.893 for , and 44 for n
To find
Where,
Substitute 17.893 for , 22.5 for , and 1.638 for b
To find
Now substitute a= –18.737 b= 1.638 and x = 45th year
Hence, the forecast for SS & L Company for the forty fifth years is .
To forecast for SS & L Company using linear regression analysis
Y x xy x
0.25 0.4 0.1 0.16
0.24 0.4 0.096 0.16
0.24 0.5 0.12 0.25
0.26 0.7 0.182 0.49
0.25 0.9 0.225 0.81
0.3 1 0.3 1
0.31 1.4 0.434 1.96
0.32 1.7 0.544 2.89
0.24 1.3 0.312 1.69
0.26 1.2 0.312 1.44
0.25 1.1 0.275 1.21
0.33 0.9 0.297 0.81
0.5 1.2 0.6 1.44
0.95 1.2 1.14 1.44
1.7 1.2 2.04 1.44
2.3 1.6 3.68 2.56
2.8 1.5 4.2 2.25
2.8 1.6 4.48 2.56

2.7 1.7 4.59 2.89
3.9 1.9 7.41 3.61
4.9 1.9 9.31 3.61
5.3 2.3 12.19 5.29
6.2 2.5 15.5 6.25
4.1 2.8 11.48 7.84
4.5 2.9 13.05 8.41
6.1 3.4 20.74 11.56
7.7 3.8 29.26 14.44
10.1 4.1 41.41 16.81
15.2 4 60.8 16
18.1 4 72.4 16
24.1 3.9 93.99 15.21
25.6 3.8 97.28 14.44
30.3 3.8 115.14 14.44
36 3.7 133.2 13.69
31.1 4.1 127.51 16.81
31.7 4.1 129.97 16.81
38.5 4 154 16
47.9 4.5 215.55 20.25
49.1 4.6 225.86 21.16
55.8 4.5 251.1 20.25
70.1 4.6 322.46 21.16
70.9 4.6 326.14 21.16
79.1 4.7 371.77 22.09

94 5 470 25
787.3 115 3351.447 395.74
To find
Where, and n is 44
To find
Where, y is 787.3 and n is 44
Substitute 3,351.447 for xy, 2.614 and 17.893 for , and 44 for n
To find
Where,
Substitute 17.893 for , 2.614 for , and 13.60 for b
To find
Now substitute a =17.6574, b = 13.60, and x is 45th year
Hence, forecasting for SS & L Company, using linear regression analysis, is .
Comment
Step 2 of 2
b.
Identify what changes can make a case for excluding a portion of the information, and choose
the model.
The given data shows an increase in trend regression analysis from the year 1993. Exponential
smoothing method with trend analysis will give appropriate results.
Comment


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homework questions
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Step 1 of 10
Forecasting:
Forecasting is the process of predicting about the future using the demand of the current period. phone to post a question
Mean square error is the method of measuring the difference between the actual and the We'll send you a one-time
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prediction.
Least squares regression method:

888-888-8888 Text me
It is the method, which is used to find the best model for their data to fit.

Comment the app. Standard messaging rates may apply.
Step 2 of 10 My Textbook Solutions
Given data:
It is given that the demand for the bass drums is related to the television appearances of the
stone temple pilots that is a popular group.
a) Operations Engineering Human

Graph for relationship between bass drum sales and group’s television shows:
(1)
The graph that describes the relationship between the bass drum sales and television shows of
the group is shown below: View all solutions
Comment
Step 3 of 10
b)
Determine the forecasting equation using least-squares regression:

Demand for bass drums is represented as y, as it depends on television appearances and
television appearance of the group is represented as x.
Hence the value of and value of .
Comment
Step 4 of 10
Derive the linear regression equation:
General linear regression equation is shown below:
Hence,
y refers to dependent variable
a refers to the y axis intercept
b refers to the slope of the regression line
x refers to the independent variable
Comment
Step 5 of 10
Calculation of slope of the regression line (b):
Slope is calculated by dividing value A and Value B. Value A is the attained by subtracting the
multiple of number of samples, average of x, and average of y with the total sum of xy. Value B is
attained by subtracting the multiple of number of sample and the square of average of x value
from the sum of x2 value.
Hence, the value of slope (b) is .
Comment
Step 6 of 10
Calculate the y-axis intercept (a):

It is calculated by multiplying the value of slope (b) with the average of x and subtracting the
attained value from the average of y.
Hence, the value of the y-axis intercept (a) is .
Comment
Step 7 of 10
Linear regression equation:
Linear regression equation is given below.
Hence, the linear regression equation is .
Comment
Step 8 of 10
c)
Estimate the bass drum sales when the stone temple pilots performed nine times in last month:
It is found that the linear regression equation is . It is given that the stone
temple pilots performed nine times in the last month. Thus, x is given as nine.
Hence, the bass drum sales is when the stone temple pilots performed nine times in last
month.
Comment
Step 9 of 10
d)
Determine the correlation coefficient (r):
Correlation coefficient (r) is calculated by using the following formula:
Hence, the correlation coefficient (r) is .
Correlation coefficient (r) defines that there is strong positive relationship between the bass
drums and the television appearance of the group.
Comment
Step 10 of 10
Calculate the coefficient of determination:
Coefficient of determination (r2) is the square of the correlation coefficient (r).
Hence, the coefficient of determination (r2) is .
Coefficient of determination (r2) defines that the regression equation explains the 67.7 percent
variation.
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b). Compute the demand for A’s conditioners when the temperature is :
Now, use the given equation to find the demand: phone to post a question
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Hence, the forecasted demand for the air conditioner at is . My Textbook Solutions
Comment
Step 2 of 2 Operations Engineering Human

(1)
c). Compute the demand for A’s conditioners when the temperature is :
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Now, use the given equation to find the demand:
Hence, the forecasted demand for the air conditioner at is .
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(a)
To forecast the selling price of the house with the given equation phone to post a question
download link
Substitute, X (square feet) with the given information
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Hence the selling price with given information predicted price of house is .
Comment
Step 2 of 4

(b) Management Economy Developme
The selling price predicted is the average price of the house. If the house is sold for $95,000 then 12th Edition 16th Edition 2nd Edition
(1)
it means that the other factors had contributed the additional value. This difference is high due to
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high variance of correlation.
Comment
Step 3 of 4
(c)
The following are the quantitative variable considered while buying a house:
• Number of living rooms in the house
• Size of the lot.
• Size of garage.
• Locality and computation to cities.
• Life of the building.
Comment
Step 4 of 4
(d)
To determine the coefficient of determination
Coefficient of variance (r) =0.63
Coefficient of determination
Hence the coefficient of determination is
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homework questions
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Step 1 of 6
Given information: expected travel cost to number of days on the road and distance
traveled in miles, coefficient of correlation is 0.68; in the case of WF, distance traveled is Snap a photo from your
300 miles and for 5 days and request submitted for reimbursement is $685. We'll send you a one-time
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Step 2 of 6 By providing your phone number, you agree to rec

a.
To calculate whether Ms. WF is eligible for the reimbursement
The given equation is: My Textbook Solutions
Substitute from the given equation; is estimated travel cost of the days, which is 5
and is distance traveled in miles, which is 300.

(1)
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Comment
Step 3 of 6
Hence, the reimbursement applied by Ms. WF is $685, and the actual amount she is eligible is
.
Comment
Step 4 of 6
b.
To forecast Ms. WF reimbursement request for $685, what are the accountant duties?
Comment
Step 5 of 6
If Ms. WF submitted a request for $685, the accountant should reject her application stating that
it is much higher than what is forecasted; alternatively, the accountant can recalculate the
coefficients for the models using other assumptions and other variables.
Comment
Step 6 of 6
c.
The other variable cost includes
Variable costs such as cost of accommodation and cost of living expenses, such as food, travel,
and clothing, can be considered.
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a.
To determine the least square regression method for city government annual sales taxes and car phone to post a question
registrations We'll send you a one-time
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Least square regression method:
X = car registrations 888-888-8888 Text me

Y = sales tax collection
Y (sales tax collections) X (new car registrations) XY the app. Standard messaging rates may apply.
1 10 10 100 1
1.4 12 16.8 144 1.96
1.9 15 28.5 225 3.61

2 16 32 256 4 Management Economy Developme
(1)
View all solutions

1.8 14 25.2 196 3.24
2.1 17 35.7 289 4.41
2.3 20 46 400 5.29
Formula for least square regression equation:
Where,
To find:
To find
To find
Where, x = 104 and n is7.
To find :
Where, y is 12.5 and n is 7.
Then, substitute is 14.86 and is 1.786 and XY is 194.2 and is 1610:
Where, b is 0.131
To find :
Substitute 1.786, 14.86 is and b is 0.131:
Comment
Step 2 of 4
b.
To estimate the amount of sales paid to the government if 22,000 cars were introduced
Data given:
Number of cars is 22,000.
b = 0.131
a = –0.161
Comment
Step 3 of 4
Hence, the amount collected by the government if 22,000 cars are introduced is
.
Comment
Step 4 of 4
c.
To calculate the coefficient of correlation and determination
Where, , is 104, is 12.5, is 1610, and is 23.51.
Hence, the correlation of coefficient of the given data is .
The correlation of the determination is:
Hence, the correlation of the determination is .
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Step 1 of 8
Forecasting:
Forecasting is the method or technique that helps to estimate the future aspects of the business phone to post a question
or operation. Demand forecasting is used in the companies to estimate the amount of product or We'll send you a one-time
download link
service that needs to be delivered in the particular period.
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Comment

Step 2 of 8
Given information:
The given information is as follows:

(1)
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Comment
Step 3 of 8
Forecast the data using regression method:

It is necessary to determine y-axis intercept and slope of the regression, to forecast the data.
Formula for y-axis intercepts:
Slope of the regression line:
Comment
Step 4 of 8
Comment
Step 5 of 8
Slope of the regression line:
Hence, the slope of the regression line is .
Comment
Step 6 of 8
Calculate y-axis intercepts:

Hence, y-axis intercept is .
Comment
Step 7 of 8
Forecast for period 11 when the robbery rate increases by 131.2:
Substitute x as 131.2 in the y-axis intercept equation.
Comment
Step 8 of 8
Forecast for period 11 when the robbery rate decreases by 90.6:
Substitute x as 90.6 in the y-axis intercept equation.
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a.
To plot the data given in the linear model for the Band S ridership in summer months in L phone to post a question
X is ridership download link
Y is number of tourists in Band S
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(1)
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b.
To forecast the linear regression analysis for the B&S ridership for the summer months in L
Linear regression method:
Where, a is:
Where, b is:
In this problem:

X Y XY X Y
7 1.5 10.5 49 2.25
2 1.0 2 4 1
6 1.3 7.8 36 1.69
4 1.5 6 16 2.25
14 2.5 35 196 6.25
15 2.7 40.5 225 7.29
16 2.4 38.4 256 5.76
12 2.0 24 144 4
14 2.7 37.8 196 7.29
20 4.4 88 400 19.36
15 3.4 51 225 11.56
7 1.7 11.9 49 2.89
To find
Need to find and
To find :
To find :
Then, substitute 35.29 for XY, is 85.4, & 47.8 is and 12 is n:

b = 0.543
To find
Substitute 2.258, 11s and b
c.
To predict the expected ridership if 10 million tourists visit every year
X = 10Million
Now, substitute the values where x is 10, b is 0.1594, and a is 0.5046:
Hence, the expected ridership if there are ten million tourists every year is .
Comment
Step 2 of 3
c.
To predict the expected ridership if no visitors visited London
X = no visitors in London
Now, substitute the values x is 0, b is 0.1594, and a is 0.5046:
Hence, the expected ridership if there are no tourists is .
d.
To forecast the standard error of ridership of the tourists visiting London

Hence, the forecast of the standard error of ridership of the tourists visiting London is .
Comment
Step 3 of 3
e.
To forecast the coefficient correlation of B and S in L
Hence, the coefficient of correlation of B and S ridership in L is .
To determine the coefficient of determination for B and S ridership in L
Now, substitute the values where r is 0.9166:
Hence, the coefficient of determination of B and S ridership in L is .
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a)
To determine: The relationship between SAT math scores and grades. phone to post a question
Given information: download link
To forecast relationship between 13 students SAT scores and grades; if a student scores 350
and 800, what will be the GPA? 888-888-8888 Text me
Student SAT Scores GPA
A 421 2.90
B 377 2.93 My Textbook Solutions
C 585 3.00
D 690 3.45
E 608 3.66 (1)
View all solutions
F 390 2.88
G 415 2.15
H 481 2.53
I 729 3.22
J 501 1.99
K 613 2.75
L 709 3.90
M 366 1.60
Explanation:
To forecast the relationship of their scores using regression analysis
Regression analysis:
Where, a is:
Where, b is:
In this problem:
X Y XY X Y
421 2.90 1220.9 177241 8.41
377 2.93 1104.61 142129 8.5849
585 3.00 1755 342225 9.00
690 3.45 2380.5 476100 11.9025
608 3.66 2225.28 369664 13.3956
390 2.88 1123.2 152100 8.2944
415 2.15 892.25 172225 4.6225
481 2.53 1216.93 231361 6.4009
729 3.22 2347.38 531441 10.3684
501 1.99 996.99 251001 3.9601
613 2.75 1685.75 375769 7.5625
709 3.90 2765.1 502681 15.21
366 1.6 585.6 133956 2.56
To find
Need to find and
To find :

To find :
Then, substitute 20,299.49 for XY, is 529.61 & 2.84 for ,13 is n
To find
Substitute 2.843, 529.62 is and b is0.00343
Comment
Step 2 of 4
b.)
To determine: GPA of a student when he or she scores 350 marks
Given information:
and 800, what will be the GPA?
A 421 2.90
B 377 2.93
C 585 3.00
D 690 3.45
E 608 3.66
F 390 2.88
G 415 2.15
H 481 2.53
I 729 3.22
J 501 1.99
K 613 2.75
L 709 3.90
M 366 1.60
Explanation:
Substitute a is 1.026, b is 0.00343, and x is 350:
Hence, the GPA for the student who scores 350 is .
To find the GPA for the students who scores 350 marks
Coefficient correlation:
Now, need to find the correlation coefficient to find the GPA of the scores:
Comment
Step 3 of 4
Hence, the relationship between SAT scores and GPA is .
Comment
Step 4 of 4
c.
To determine: GPA of a student when he or she scores 800 marks
Given information:
and 800, what will be the GPA?
A 421 2.90
B 377 2.93
C 585 3.00
D 690 3.45
E 608 3.66
F 390 2.88
G 415 2.15
H 481 2.53
I 729 3.22
J 501 1.99
K 613 2.75
L 709 3.90
M 366 1.60
Explanation:
If the student scores 800 marks.
Substitute a is 1.026, b is 0.00343, and x is 800:
Hence, the GPA for the student who scores 800 marks is
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homework questions
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a.
To forecast the given data using regression equation of PEC services phone to post a question
Regression equation: download link
888-888-8888 Text me

To find the above equation, need to find the equation for
Where, a is:
Where, b is:
In this problem:
(1)
Substitute the data according to the given formula: View all solutions
X Y XY X
153 8 1224 23409 64
172 10 1720 29584 100
197 15 2955 38809 225
178 9 1602 31684 81
185 12 2220 34225 144
199 13 2587 39601 169
205 12 2460 42025 144
226 16 3616 51076 256

To find
Need to find and .
To find :
Where, x = 1,515 and n is 8.
To find :
Where, y is 95 and n is 8.
Then, substitute 18,384 for xy, 189.375& 11.875 for , 8 is n:
To find
Substitute 11.875, 189.375 is and b is 0.112:
To find
Substitute a is –9.335 b is 0.112 and x
Hence, the regression equation for PEC services is .
Comment
Step 2 of 2
b.
To find the coefficient of correlation and determination for precision services
• Coefficient of correlation:
Hence, substitute the values in the following equation xy is 18,384, x is 1,515, y is 95,
and is 290,413 and is 1,183 8 is the quarters “n”
Hence, the coefficient of correlation for the precision services is .
• To find the coefficient of determination of precision services
Coefficient of determination:
Substitute r value as 0.896:
Hence, the coefficient of determination of PCS services is .
• To determine the standard error for the precision services limited
Standard error:
Substitute the values in the above equation where is 1183, is 95, and is 18,384, a
is –9.335, b is 0.112, and n is 2:
Hence, the standard error for the PCS services is .
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Step 1 of 5
To forecast the store TG’s in state WDC with exponential smoothing and mean absolute deviation
and to track the signal for the 10 weeks phone to post a question
Given information: exponential smoothing constant and initial forecast is 0.20, and the We'll send you a one-time
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demand for the store TG for the 10 weeks is given below in the table.
Week Demand 888-888-8888 Text me

1 20 a one-time automated text message with a link to
2 21
3 28
4 37

(1)
7 36
8 22
9 25
10 28
Comment
Step 2 of 5
a.
To forecast the exponential smoothing method with the given information for the store TG
Exponential smoothing:
Substitute the given values :
Hence, the exponential smoothing forecast for the store TG is .
Comment
Step 3 of 5
b.
To forecast the mean absolute deviation method for the store TG in WDC for the 10 weeks
Mean absolute deviation:
Substitute the forecasted demand values from exponential smoothing method and subtract the
actual demand values and whole divided by n, that is, number of weeks given.
Week Actual demand Forecasted demand
1 20 20 0
2 21 20.5 0.5
3 28 24.25 3.75
4 37 30.625 6.375
5 25 27.8125 2.812
6 29 28.41 0.59
7 36 32.205 3.795
8 22 27.11 5.11
9 25 26.05 1.05
10 28 27.025 0.975
TOTAL 271 263.98 24.957
Now, substitute the given information in the formula. Since the given formula is in modulus,
calculate the value obtained through actual demand and forecasted demand in a cumulative and
divide by n, which are 10
Comment
Step 4 of 5
The MAD is calculated as shown below:
Hence, the mean absolute deviation of the store TG is .
Comment
Step 5 of 5
c.
To forecast the tracking signal for the store TG in WDC
Tracking signal:
Hence, the tracking signal for the store TG in WDC is .
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a.
To forecast the tracking signal for the end of December for the NT pharmaceutical company phone to post a question
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To find the mean absolute deviation for the NT pharmaceutical company
Comment
Step 2 of 4

Comment (1)
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Step 3 of 4
Subtract the actual demand levels and forecasted demand levels as given in table; since they are
in modulus, the values obtained through calculation are considered for addition:
Comment
Step 4 of 4
To find the tracking signal for the NT pharmaceutical company

Substitute the values of actual demand and forecasted demand levels as given in the table and
divide by the value obtained from mean absolute deviation method:
Hence, the tracking signal for the NT pharmaceutical company is .
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homework questions
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Refer to Problem 1. Complete the trend-adjusted exponential-smoothing forecast computations
for periods 7, 8, and 9. Confirm that your numbers for Ft, Tt, and FITt match those in Table (p.
118)
Table Forecast with α = .2 and β = .4. phone to post a question
ACTUAL SMOOTHED FORECAST SMOOTHED FORECAST INCLUDING download link
MONTH
DEMAND AVERAGE, Ft TREND, Tt TREND, FITt
888-888-8888 Text me
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80 1.92 14.72
3 20 15.18 2.10 17.28 My Textbook Solutions
4 19 17.82 2.32 20.14
5 24 19.91 2.23 22.14

6 21 22.51 2.38 24.89 12th Edition 16th Edition 2nd Edition
(1)
View all solutions

7 31 24.11 2.07 26.18
8 28 27.14 2.45 29.59
9 36 29.28 2.32 31.60
10 — 32.48 2.68 35.16
Problem 1
Refer to the trend-adjusted exponential smoothing illustration in Example 7 on pages 117?119.

Using α = .2 and β = .4, we forecast sales for 9 months, showing the detailed calculations for
months 2 and 3. In Solved Problem 2, we continued the process for month 4.
In this problem, show your calculations for months 5 and 6 for Ft, Tt, and FITt.
Problem 2
YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
DEMAND 7 9 5 9 13 8 12 13 9 11 7
a) Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations?
b) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average. Plot
your forecast on the same graph as the original data.
c) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average with
weights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent year. Plot this forecast on the same graph.
d) As you compare forecasts with the original data, which seems to give the better results?
Example
Step 1 of 2
To determine the trend adjustment with exponential smoothing constant of
For the exponential smoothing constant
For the exponential smoothing constant
Forecast including trend
Exponentially smoothed forecast + exponentially smoothed trend
Comment
Step 2 of 2
Forecast for the month of seven
Using method
Using method
The value of F7, T7 and FIT7 are respectively 24.112, 2.068 and 26.18.
Forecast for the month of eight
Using method
Using method
The value of F8, T8 and FIT8 are respectively 27.144, 2.4536 and 29.6.
Forecast for the month of nine
Using method
Using method
The value of F9, T9 and FIT9 are respectively 29. 27, 2.326 and 31.6.
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Problem
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Refer to Problem. Develop a forecast for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with α
= .4 and a forecast for year 1 of 6. Plot your new forecast on a graph with the actual data and the
naive forecast. Based on a visual inspection, which forecast is better?
Problem phone to post a question
YEAR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 download link
DEMAND 7 9 5 9 13 8 12 13 9 11 7
888-888-8888 Text me

a) Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations? a one-time automated text message with a link to
b) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average. Plot
your forecast on the same graph as the original data.
c) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average with
weights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent year. Plot this forecast on the same graph.

d) As you compare forecasts with the original data, which seems to give the better results? Management Economy Developme
(1)
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Step 1 of 4
Consider the following demand data:
Comment
Step 2 of 4
In naïve forecast method, the forecasted value of a year is determined using given formula:
…… (1)
Here,
= Forecast of year
= Actual demand of year
Calculate the simple exponential smoothing forecast using the formula given below:
…… (2)
Here,
= forecast for period
= demand for the most recent period
= smoothing coefficient
Comment
Step 3 of 4
The values are determined using excel sheet as shown below:
For exponential smoothing use = 0.4 and =6
Figure 1: Screenshot of formulas used in excel spreadsheet
Figure 2: Screenshot showing forecasted values
(Please note that the values can be calculated manually as well. Here, excel spreadsheet is used
for quick and accurate calculations.)
Comment
Step 4 of 4
Prepare the graph using the actual demand data and forecasted values. The graph is shown
below:
From the above graph it is seen that the naïve forecast value shows huge deviation from the
actual data. Contrary to this, the exponential smoothing forecast shows comparatively less
deviation.
Hence, from visual inspection it is clear that exponential smoothing forecast gives better results
as compared to naïve method.
Comment


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homework questions
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Problem
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Resolve Problem with α =.1 and β =.8. Using MSE, determine which smoothing constants provide
a better forecast.
Problem
Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and Yunes for the period February to July was as phone to post a question
follows: We'll send you a one-time
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MONTH FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY

888-888-8888 Text me
Income (in $ thousand) 70.0 68.5 64.8 71.7 71.3 72.8
Use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast the firm’s August income. Assume that the
initial forecast average for February is $65,000 and the initial trend adjustment is 0. The
smoothing constants selected are α = .1 and β = .2.
Step 1 of 29 Operations Engineering Human

Forecasting: (1)
Forecasting is the process of predicting about the future using the demand of the current period. View all solutions
Mean square error is the method of measuring the difference between the actual and the
prediction.
Comment
Step 2 of 29
Calculate mean squared error (MSE):
It is given that the income for 6 months. The given data are as follows: $70,000 for February,
$68,500 for March, $64,800 for April, $71,700 for May, $71,300 for June, and $72,800 for July.
The smoothing constant is given as α is 0.1 and β is 0.8.
Comment
Step 3 of 29
Calculate mean squared error when the smoothing constant a is 0.1:
Forecast is calculated by adding the forecast of the previous month with the value attained by
multiplying smoothing constant (a is 0.1) with the value attained by subtracting the forecast of
previous month from demand of previous month.
Hence,
Ft refers to the forecast of present month
Ft-1 refers to the forecast of previous month
at-1 refers to the demand of previous month
a refers to the smoothing constant.
Hence, the sum of the squared error is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 4 of 29
Calculate the forecast for March:
For February, the initial forecast is given as $65,000. Forecast for March is calculated by adding
the forecast of the February with the value attained by multiplying smoothing constant (a is 0.1)
with the value attained by subtracting the forecast of February from demand of February.
Hence, forecast for March is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 5 of 29
Calculate the forecast for April:
Forecast for April is calculated by adding the forecast of the March with the value attained by
March from demand of March.
Hence, forecast for April is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 6 of 29
Calculate the forecast for May:
Forecast for May is calculated by adding the forecast of the April with the value attained by
April from demand of April.
Hence, forecast for May is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 7 of 29
Calculate the forecast for June:
Forecast for June is calculated by adding the forecast of the May with the value attained by
May from demand of May.
Hence, forecast for June is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 8 of 29
Calculate the forecast for July:
Forecast for July is calculated by adding the forecast of the June with the value attained by
June from demand of June
Hence, forecast for July is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 9 of 29
Squared error for February:
It is the square of the value attained by differencing demand and forecast of the current period.
Hence, the squared error for February is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 10 of 29
Squared error for March:
Hence, the squared error for March is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 11 of 29
Squared error for April:
Hence, the squared error for April is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 12 of 29
Squared error for May:
Hence, the squared error for May is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 13 of 29
Squared error for June:
Hence, the squared error for June is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 14 of 29
Squared error for July:
Hence, the squared error for July is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 15 of 29
Mean squared error:
Mean squared error is the average of the squared error.
Hence, the mean square error for smoothing constant (a) is .
Comment
Step 16 of 29
Calculate mean squared error when the smoothing constant ß is 0.8:
Forecast is calculated by adding the forecast of the previous month with the value attained by
multiplying smoothing constant (ß is 0.8) with the value attained by subtracting the forecast of
previous month from demand of previous month.
Hence,
Ft refers to the forecast of present month
Ft-1 refers to the forecast of previous month
at-1 refers to the demand of previous month
ß refers to the smoothing constant.
Hence, the sum of the squared error is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 17 of 29
Calculate the forecast for March:
For February, the initial forecast is given as $65,000. Forecast for March is calculated by adding
the forecast of the February with the value attained by multiplying smoothing constant (ß is 0.8)
with the value attained by subtracting the forecast of February from demand of February.
Hence, forecast for March is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 18 of 29
Calculate the forecast for April:
Forecast for April is calculated by adding the forecast of the March with the value attained by
March from demand of March.
Hence, forecast for April is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 19 of 29
Calculate the forecast for May:
Forecast for May is calculated by adding the forecast of the April with the value attained by
April from demand of April.
Hence, forecast for May is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 20 of 29
Calculate the forecast for June:
Forecast for June is calculated by adding the forecast of the May with the value attained by
May from demand of May.
Hence, forecast for June is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 21 of 29
Calculate the forecast for July:
Forecast for July is calculated by adding the forecast of the June with the value attained by
June from demand of June
Hence, forecast for July is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 22 of 29
Squared error for February:
Hence, the squared error for February is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 23 of 29
Squared error for March:
Hence, the squared error for March is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 24 of 29
Squared error for April:
Hence, the squared error for April is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 25 of 29
Squared error for May:

Hence, the squared error for May is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 26 of 29
Squared error for June:
Hence, the squared error for June is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 27 of 29
Squared error for July:
Hence, the squared error for July is (in thousands).
Comment
Step 28 of 29
Mean squared error:
Mean squared error is the average of the squared error.
Hence, the mean square error for smoothing constant (ß) is .
Comment
Step 29 of 29
Inference:
Hence, the mean squared error for smoothing constant a is 22 and the mean squared error for
smoothing constant ß is 13.48. Thus, provide a better forecast as the mean squared error is
minimum than a.
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homework questions
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Problem
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The number of auto accidents in Athens, Ohio, is related to the regional number of registered
automobiles in thousands (X1), alcoholic beverage sales in $10,000s (X2), and rainfall in inches
(X3). Furthermore, the regression formula has been calculated as:
Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 phone to post a question
where We'll send you a one-time
download link
Y = number of automobile accidents
a = 7.5
888-888-8888 Text me
b1 = 3.5
b2 = 4.5 By providing your phone number, you agree to rec

b3 = 2.5
Calculate the expected number of automobile accidents under conditions a, b, and c:
X1 X2 X3 My Textbook Solutions
(a) 2 3 0
(b) 3 5 1
(c) 4 7 2 (1)
View all solutions
Step 1 of 3
Now, substitute the information as per the equation given:
…… (1)
Hence, the forecast for number of accidents occurs due to more number of automobiles is .
Comment
Step 2 of 3

…… (2)
Hence, the forecast for number of accidents due to alcoholic beverages is .
Comment
Step 3 of 3
…… (3)
Hence, the forecast for number of accidents due to rainfall inches is
Comment


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  Textbook Solutions Expert Q&A Practice 

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Operations Management (12th Edition) Post a question

Walkthrough video for this problem:

Chapter 4, Problem 5P 17 Bookmarks Show all steps: ON

Snap a photo from your

By providing your phone number, you agree to rec

Operations Engineering Human

5 3,700 View all solutions

Find the Mean Average Deviation (MAD)

Hence, the Mean average deviation is

To ﬁnd the weighted moving average & using MAD

The mean average deviation (MAD) is

To ﬁnd out the exponential smoothing approach for year sixth

Given , substitute as shown below:

Hence the exponential smoothing for sixth year is

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To estimate the two Forecasting is the primary function to predict the

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Operations Management (12th Edition) Post a question

$4.20 250 My Textbook Solutions

5013-4-31P AID: 1825 | 07/09/2013

RID: 852 | 18/10/2013

Forecast the trend projection to ﬁnd the simple linear regression.

Let is the historical prices of coffee.

Let be the historical numbers of coffee sold.

Derive the least square equation using trend projection formula:

2.70 760 2,052 7.29

3.50 510 1,785 12.25

2.00 980 1,960 4.00

4.20 250 1,050 17.64

3.10 320 992 9.61

4.05 480 1,944 16.40

Total = Total = Total = Total =

Where, and n = 6 (six different price values).

Where, y = 3,300 and n = 6(six different price values).

Where, = 67.19 and n = 6.

Now, calculate the following:

Now, calculate the estimation of the regression equation:

Therefore, the estimation of regression equation is as follows:

Hence, the forecasted demand for the price $2.80 is .

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To estimate the two Forecasting is the primary function to predict the

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View all solutions

Now substitute 374, 368, 381 in demand in previous n periods and 3 in n

To determine new forecast substitute 0.2 for as follows:

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