EARLY WARNING AS A TOOL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

ADAPTATION IN NATIONAL PROGRAMMES FOR ADAPTATION

(NAPAs)

BY: SETH D. VORDZORGBE

SENIOR REGIONAL ADVISOR

DISCUSSION PAPER PRESENTED AT WORKSHOP BY UNITAR

AND ENDA

HOTEL AL AFIFA, DAKAR, SENEGAL

20 – 22 AUGUST, 2007
What is early warning?

the generation, dissemination and use of information about potential risks,

hazards and vulnerabilities to empower individuals and communities under
threat from natural and other hazards to take effective and timely decision-
making to protect lives, property and the environment from the effects of
disasters
Four components of EW

1. Risk Knowledge

2. Monitoring and warning service

3. Dissemination and communication

4. Response capability
1. Risk Knowledge
 Systematically collect data and undertake risk assessments
o hazards and vulnerabilities patterns/trends well known
o availability of risk data and maps

2. Monitoring and warning service

 Develop hazard monitoring and EW services
o monitoring right parameters
o sound scientific basis for forecasting
o generation of timely and accurate warnings
3. Dissemination and communication
 Communicate risk information and early warnings
o ensure warnings reach all at risk
o risks and warnings understood
o clear and useable warning information

4. Response capability
 Build national/community response capabilities
o up to date & tested response plans
o use local capacities and knowledge
o preparedness & readiness to react to warnings
Role of EW in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and the Hyogo
Framework or Action (HFA)

 risk forecasting and prediction

 recommendation of alternative protective actions targeted to different

end-users, communities and types of risk

 engendering shift from reactive response to proactive reaction to

warnings (effective preparedness)
 Common challenges for disaster reduction and climate change

SIMILAR CHALLENGES
 Decreasing vulnerability
 Integration in sustainable development
planning
 Poverty reduction
 Improving
education/information/public
awareness
 Comprehensive response
 Participatory processes

Climate change
Disaster
Climatic hazards and risks
risk
reduction

INCREASING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY INCLUDING OUTSIDE

EXPERIENCED COPING RANGE

WIN WIN MEASURES

 Early warning systems, climatic information, El Nino
 Disaster data, socio-economic impacts of disasters
 Risk and vulnerability assessments
 Financial and economic tools: insurance
 Structural and physical measures
 Hazard control measures, flood & drought management, coastal
zone management
 Land use planning, urban risk and environment management
Experience with EWS in Africa
 early efforts in West Africa; early 1980s (food insecurity;
meteorological trends)
 systems for food security are the most developed and widespread
 drought warning systems integrated with climate and weather
warnings (drought forecasting focused on climatological drought)
 early warning systems for other major threats undeveloped or
limited to surveillance and monitoring
 desertification monitoring systems: only now being developed
(NAPS: UNCCD)
Major EWS (national level)

 Famine Early Warning System Information Network

(FEWSNET/USAID
 Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping
Systems (FIVIMS/FAO)
 Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and
Agriculture (GIEWS/FAO)
 Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM/WFP).
Weaknesses: Within EWS
 deteriorating state of monitoring stations, especially hydrometeorological
networks
 weak communication sub-systems
 inadequate user orientation of early warning systems
 lack of clear definitions/harmonization (risk concepts, terms/procedures
for presenting risk and warning information)
 lack of clarity of responsibilities in the warning systems
 inadequate decentralization of early warning practice
Constraints: Outside EWS
 weak national focus on warning
 persistence of disaster response outlook
 inadequate land use planning: undermines warning effectiveness
 weak trans-boundary and international cooperation
 inadequate warning coverage of other serious threats to livelihoods
 weak advocacy for general awareness, political responsibilities and
public participation regarding disaster risk management
The InWent project: Using the Education Sector for Disaster
Awareness Outreach

Objectives
 train teachers on EWS and mechanisms
 grassroots initiatives focusing on primary education & communities
 students to spreads EWS knowledge to families

Planned activities
 Development of curriculum modules for teachers
 Development of curriculum modules for use in primary education
 Support campaign group for disaster awareness at Eduardo Mondlane
university (EDU)
 Produce film to increase project outreach
Implementation Agencies and Division of Labour
InWent: capacity building and training; contribute to curricula development

INGC:
 coordinate stakeholder involvement
 facilitate outreach & awareness raising in provinces/districts
 support course module development at EDU
 advise on DM requirements
 liaise with Min. of Education to integrate EW/DRR into
educational policies

Min of Education:
 adjust school curricula & policies to include EW/DRR
 identify pilot schools
 provide opportunities for teacher participation

EDU: integrate EW/DRR in curricula modules

Monitoring and evaluation
By InWent regional Office for SADC

Sustainability
 EDU staff and teachers capacity to enhance their awareness of EW
 Inclusion in curricula to ensure teaching
 INGC to sustainably involve Min. of Education
 Joint ownership and increased reputation to ensure continued Min.
involvement
 Video film to raise awareness to ensure continued role of education
sector
Weaknesses/Lessons in EWS project design for NAPA

 Unclear which EWS is to be integrated (schools cannot run EWS)

 Specify risks covered by EWS
 Ambitious timeframe: 1 year
 Inadequate institutional framework (e.g. linkages with civil service)
 Review: improve deliverables and sustainability elements
 Difficult to assess impact (too little information)
 Increase involvement of Mozambican (local) professional personnel
General lessons in effective EWS

(a) Multi-purpose monitoring is required for vulnerability warning

(b) The scope of warning systems need to cover other hazards
(c) Drought and desertification monitoring is a long-term process
(d) Traditional indictors must be integrated in formal warning systems
(e) Early warning of conflicts are often pointers to natural disasters
(f) Assured funding is crucial for development and sustainability of early
warning systems
(g) New approaches to capacity development are needed
(networking, technical partnering, joint assessments, international
cooperation, decentralization of early warning activities, advocacy activities)