1. Suppose a box contains a fair (unbiased) and a faulty (biased) dice.

Naturally, the
probability of having 3 after rolling the fair die is 1/6 = 0.166. However, the same
probability on the faulty die is 0.60. Suppose, we do not have an idea of which one is
faulty and which one is fair. We select one die and roll it. The result comes out as 3.
Find out the posterior probability that the die rolled was a (i) fair (ii) faulty.

Solution: Method 1

Prior Probability / Original Probability

Prior probability / Original Probability of selecting Fair Die is = P(G) = 0.5

Prior probability / Original Probability of selecting Unfair Die is = P(B) = 0.5

Conditional probability
Probability of getting 3 on fair die is = C1 = 0.166

Probability of getting 3 on Unfair die is = C2 = 0.6

What is the probability of getting 3 on die and die is fair? As these two events are
independent in nature, we will use special rule of multiplication
P (GnC1) = P(G) * P(C1) = 0.5 * 0.166 = 0.083

What is the probability of getting 3 on die and die is Unfair? As these two events are
independent in nature, we will use special rule of multiplication
P (BnC2) = P(B) * P(C2) = 0.5 * 0.6 = 0.3

Revised original Probability / Posterior Prob

Posterior Prob of Event 1 = P (GnC1) = 0.083 / (0.083+0.3) = 0.217

New Joint Probability of E1 and E2

Posterior Prob of Event 2 = P (BnC2) = 0.3 / (0.083+0.3) = 0.783

New Joint Probability of E1 and E2

The revised / posterior prob of selecting fair die is 0.217 and selecting Unfair (Faulty) Die is 0.783
Method 2

Event Prior Prob Ei Conditional Prob Joint Prob Posterior Prob

C P (Ei AND C)
1. Fair Die 0.5 0.166 0.5*0.166 = 0.083/0.383=0.217
0.083
2. Unfair 0.5 0.6 0.5 * 0.6 = 0.3 0.3/0.383 = 0.783
Die
3. Total Joint Prob Total Prob = 1
= 0.383

The revised / posterior prob of selecting fair die is 0.217 and selecting Unfair (Faulty) Die is 0.783

Solve
2. Machines X, Y, and Z all produce the same two types of cookies, coconut cookie and
Choco chip. Of all the types produced, machine X produces 60%, machine Y produces
30%, and machine Z produces 10% of cookies. In addition, 40% of the cookies made
by machine X are Choco chip cookies. 50% of the cookies made by machine Y are
Choco chip cookies. 70% of the cookies made by machine Z are Choco chip cookies. A
cookie box produced by this company is randomly sampled and is determined to be
an Choco chip cookies. With the knowledge that it is a Choco chip cookie, revise the
probabilities that the cookies came from machine X, Y, or Z.

3. There are two Lawn services companies in the Mumbai Market. Tirupati Lawn
Service has 72% of the market. Thirty percent of the lawns fertilized by Tirupati could
be rated as very healthy one month after service. Gopala has the other 28% of the
market. Twenty percent of the lawns fertilized by Gopala could be rated as very
healthy one month after service. A lawn that has been treated with fertilizer by one
of these companies within the last month is selected randomly. If the lawn is rated
as very healthy, what are the revised probabilities that Tirupati or Gopala treated the
lawn?