RESEARCH PAPER ON

COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY

M.COM (BANKING & FINANCE)

2021 – 2022

SAPNA.A.KESUR
Roll no. 27
 H.R COLLEGE OF COMMERCE AND ECONOMICS
Vidyasagar Principal K.M. Kundnani Chowk, 123, Dinshaw Vacha Rd, Churchgate, Mumbai, Maharashtra 400020

M.COM (BANKING AND FINANCE)

2021 – 2022

RESEARCH PAPER ON
COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY

SAPNA.A.KESUR
Roll no. 27
 CONTENT
Sr. No. Particulars Page no.
1. INTRODUCTION 4
2. OBJECTIVES 5
3. HYPOTHESIS
4. LITERATURE REVIEW
5. SECONDARY DATA
6. PRIMARY DATA
7. DATA ANALYSIS
8. FINDINGS
9. CONCLUSION
10. BIBLIOGRAPHY

Abstract
The present pandemic situation has adverse deep impact on Indian business. Domestically, the impact of the corona
virus pandemic COVID-19 could lead on to slowdown in domestic demand. this can end in erosion of
buying power thanks to job losses or pay cuts and slow-down effect of deferred demand will have a extended lasting
impact on different sectors, especially where demand is discretionary in nature. India’s real GDP depleted to its
bottom in over six years during 4Q 2019-20. India’s growth for next year 2020-21 is forecasted in between of 5.3% to
5.7%. The COVID-19, or corona virus, pandemic has revealed many weaknesses within the global system. Despite
our accumulated experience in crisis management, this virus has been able to isolate us dead our homes. COVID-19
has caused severe disruption for the Indian economy. this corona virus pandemic could lead on to a four per cent
permanent loss to real Indian gross domestic product (GDP) .It is estimated for India’s Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) rate of growth to 1.9 per cent for 2020-21. this can be rock bottom after India recorded rate of growth at 1.1 per
cent in 1991-92.The COVID 19 has disrupted major sectors, it’s clearly evident that various sectors tourism &
aviation, telecom, auto sector, transportation are most impacted sectors that face negative repercussion of the
current disaster . within the given situation, with all the retail sectors shutting down their business the livelihood of the
workers are at optimum risk. the govt of the many countries has given support to the employers to pay salaries to their
employees. this study is undertaken to check the impact of COVID-19 in various sectors considering the info which
are secondary in nature, different appropriate statistical tools and techniques are applied for analysis and conclusion.
On the idea of finding recommendations are suggested to beat these adverse situations.
Keywords: Tourism and Aviation, Telecom, Auto, Government Support, GDP.

INTRODUCTION
The COVID 19 is creating destruction for the Indian economy because of the corona virus induced
lockdown is weakening the country’s GDP growth since it's having major disturbance across
multiple sectors. A highly-automated production infrastructure will save energy and not only
lower production costs, but also improve quality. The resulting reduction in human working
hours will help us maintain better health, and can allow businesses to hold on without
interruptions should a crisis hit again. Increased confidence in technology, technical
performance, and online payment sectors are causing a change in consumer behaviour, away
from traditional methods. This forces us to adapt to new trends, like engaging from home,
and move towards a future that might be freed from brick-and-mortar offices at large. There’ll be
a long-term decrease in business travel thanks to the emergence of video-conferencing tools, with
High Net worth Individuals preferring to travel via private jet as critical first-class travelling.
Governments, business leaders, and firms will allocate more budgets for investing in
healthcare and healthcare products after discovering the gaps within the global system while fighting
the corona virus. More tech start-ups will emerge with creative applications. Central Banks have
injected large sums for financial institutions and offered unprecedented exemptions that were
not provided before.
Economic downturn is probably going to be severe and therefore the policy intervention would require a
careful weighing of options and priorities. Supported the discussion above, we narrow down to two main
objectives of this study: firstly, we accommodate theoretical linkages and statistics to judge the potential and
estimated impact of the pandemic on various The macro-economic impact of COVID-19 on India’s national
and sub-national levels, is uncertain.
India has already been undergoing certain economic distress after the demonetisation of the five
hundred and 2000 Indian currency notes in 2016. Therefore, after the emergence of the pandemic, people
regarded it as a double hit to the Indian economy. 
It’s further expected that the contraction in foreign demand and domestic consumption will result in
significant job losses in both the formal and informal sector, thus increasing the pct. The GDP estimates
for this year have dropped down drastically thanks to the autumn in production. The fallout has been
mostly seen in industries like manufacturing, construction and realty. The crisis has also increased the fiscal
deficit of the economy because the government take into account the yr wasn't altered to sustain the
present crisis. The crisis didn't fail to form a devastating impact on domestic likewise as international
trade, because the demand within the markets fell sharply, and also the government led by Mr Modi
restricted all imports while announcing the Atmanirbhar Bharat policy (proposing for a self-sufficient Indian
economy). The govt soon realised the economic fallout of these restrictions and announced the formation of
the COVID-19 Economic Response Task Force. The continuing health crisis and also the resultant
disruption of economic activities have had and can still have a negative impact on the Indian economy.
Despite the govt. announcing a relief package of 1.7 trillion Indian rupees, it was clear that an
outsized portion of the country’s population was visiting be scouring for livelihoods since this stimulus
package wouldn't benefit all. Additional support from state governments and non-governmental
organizations were expected to widen the radius of aid. International organisations just like the IBRD and
Asian Development Bank also approved support to India so as to assist it tackle the pandemic. Since the
Indian economy experienced a slowdown while going into the COVID-19 outbreak, the macroeconomic
variables of the Indian economy; secondly, we concentrate on the economic consequences of the virus on
the Indian economy, with present assessment of economic outcomes and policy measures.

 General Impact on Indian economy:

The exact span and depth of the crisis on the Indian economy can't be measured at this time in time. Only
time will reveal the 000 picture. However, renowned economists provide estimates on the likely economic
impact of the pandemic on low and middle-incomes countries like India. India’s growth within the half-
moon of FY20 dropped down to 3.1% in step with the Ministry of Statistics, mainly thanks to the effect
of the present pandemic on the economy.
While research and economic experts slashed GDP estimations of the economy, it's also estimated that the
country might convalesce quickly thanks to the organized and unorganized market composition, the latter
being largely dominant. Meanwhile, the organized sectors’ losses are estimated to over nine trillion Indian
rupees in March 2020.Unsurprisingly, the services and manufacturing, specifically travel and tourism,
financial services, mining and construction sectors remain the foremost affected industries, with declining
rates of up to 23 percent between April and June 2020. The pandemic caused uncertainty and implications
among all businesses across the planet. Segments like consumer retail are expected to determine steep
declines starting from 3 to 23 per cent, reckoning on the market situation.
According to a survey, COVID-19 has an adverse impact on Indian business. Jobs are at high risk because
firms are searching for reduction in manpower. The pandemic has created a deep routed impact on the
Indian economy, negatively affecting its GDP, pct, rate of inflation, domestic and international trade,
financial markets, government budget and various other macro-economic factors. the foremost vulnerable
sector of the economy at this point, the MSME sector, has witnessed a disturbing innovate its
functioning thanks to this crisis.

 Impact on GDP:
The pandemic has adversely affected the estimated GDP of the fiscal year 2021. Fall in manpower of
production units, leading to loss of productivity coupled with shortage of demand, has led to negative
impacts across various industries, further leading to a fall in their GDP contribution to the economy. India’s
quarterly GDP was estimated to have declined by over 9% between the months of April and June 2020. This
was a decrease from a 5% growth rate at the beginning of 2020. The country went into a lockdown on
March 25th 2020, restricting 1.3 billion people within the confines of their homes. The real GDP increased
by only 3.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, over its corresponding quarter of 2019. This negative impact
on the GDP is partially an outcome of the corona virus outbreak and the subsequent measures to
forestall it, in the course of significant dip in rate of growth, the declining trend of which started much
earlier. The financial, property and professional service sector was worst hit during the amount of lockdown.
During the primary quarter of India’s nationwide lockdown that was announced following its first corona
virus outbreak, the economy was expected to lose over ₹ 32,000 crore (US$ 4.5 billion) per day.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The following are the objectives are undertaken:
• To study the GDP of India due to COVID 19
. • To study the demand side impact i.e. private consumption.
• To study the short term and long term impact on different sectors.
• To study the short term and long term recommendation for different sectors.
 HYPOTHESIS

Hypothesis is a testable prediction which is expected to occur. It can be a false or a true statement that
is tested in the research to check its authenticity. The hypothesis should be clear and precise. It should
be limited in scope and must be specific.
 There are two types of hypothesis, they are:

 • Null Hypothesis (Ho)

• Alternate Hypothesis (Ha)

Following are the hypothesis of the study:

Ho - People have just los

Ha -

Ho-
Ha-

Ho-
Ha-