26/02/2020

Lecture 4

The normal distribution

Lecture 4 – Introduction

• Explanation of:
– Normal distribution
– Standard normal curve
– Areas in the tail(s)

• Worked examples using statistical tables

• Reference Range

[See Kirkwood & Sterne: Chapter 5 – The normal distribution]

Carl Friedrich Gauss (1777-1855)

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The normal curve

Population Sample

The normal curve

The normal curve

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The normal curve

The normal curve - Height

Melbourne men, aged 40-69 years

Area under the normal curve

• The total area under the normal curve

– equals 1 (if expressed as proportion)

– or equals 100% (if expressed as percentage).

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Example - Melbourne men, aged 40-69 years

Melbourne men, aged 40-69 years

1 (or 100%)

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Example - Melbourne men, aged 40-69 years

≈0.70 (or 70%)

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Example - Melbourne men, aged 40-69 years

≈0.95 (or 95%)

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Research question

• What proportion of Melbourne men, aged 40-69 years,

are obese (BMI≥30)?

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Research question

• What proportion of Melbourne men, aged 40-69 years,

are obese (BMI≥30)?

• To use the normal curve we have the assumptions:

– BMI is normally distributed
– Sample mean of BMI and sample standard deviation
of BMI provide reasonable estimates of m and s
respectively

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Study sample – Melbourne Collaborative Cohort

Study (MCCS)
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x ~ 27.2 kg/m2
s ~ 3.5 kg/m2
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Percent

5
0

15 20 25 30 35 40
Body Mass Index

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The normal curve

15 m = 27.2 kg/m2
s = 3.5 kg/m2

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Percentage

0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Body Mass Index (kg/m2)

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The normal curve

m = 27.2 kg/m2 What proportion of

s = 3.5 kg/m2 Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years, are obese
(BMI≥30)?

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The standard normal distribution

• The standard normal distribution has a mean of zero and

standard deviation of one

• Any normally distributed variable can be related to the

standard normal distribution

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Standard normal deviates

• The standard normal deviate is the value on a

standardised normal distribution corresponding to the
observed value of a variable
x−m
z − score =
s
– x is the original variable with mean m, and standard
deviation s

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Computing z scores for BMI

m ~ 27.2 kg/m2 m~0

s ~ 3.5 kg/m2 s~1

Area Area

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

BMI = 27.2 kg/m2 z = (27.2 – 27.2) / 3.5 = 0

BMI = m + s = 30.7 kg/m2 z = (30.7 – 27.2) / 3.5 = 1

BMI = m − 2s = 20.2 kg/m2 z = ??

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Areas under the Standard Normal curve

z Area between –z Area in two tails Area in one tail

and +z <-z and >+z <-z or >+z
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.500
0.050 0.040 0.960 0.480
0.100 0.080 0.920 0.460
0.150 0.119 0.881 0.440
… … … …

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Areas under the Standard Normal curve

z Area between –z Area in two tails Area in one tail

and +z <-z and >+z <-z or >+z
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.500
0.050 0.040 0.960 0.480
0.100 0.080 0.920 0.460
0.150 0.119 0.881 0.440

Z score -z 0 +z

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Areas under the Standard Normal curve

z Area between –z Area in two tails Area in one tail

and +z <-z and >+z <-z or >+z
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.500
0.050 0.040 0.960 0.480
0.100 0.080 0.920 0.460
0.150 0.119 0.881 0.440

Z score -z 0 +z

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Areas under the Standard Normal curve

z Area between –z Area in two tails Area in one tail

and +z <-z and >+z <-z or >+z
0.000 0.000 1.000 0.500
0.050 0.040 0.960 0.480
0.100 0.080 0.920 0.460
0.150 0.119 0.881 0.440

Z score -z 0 +z

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The normal curve

m = 27.2 kg/m2 What proportion of

s = 3.5 kg/m2 Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years, are obese
(BMI≥30)?

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The normal curve

m = 27.2 kg/m2 What proportion of

s = 3.5 kg/m2 Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years, are obese
(BMI≥30)?

z-score
= (30-27.2)/3.5
Z score 0.8 = 0.8

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The normal curve

m = 27.2 kg/m2 Proportion (percentage)

s = 3.5 kg/m2 of Melbourne men,
aged 40-69 years, that
are obese is 0.21 (21%)

0.21

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The normal curve

m = 27.2 kg/m2 What proportion of

s = 3.5 kg/m2 Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years, are
overweight (BMI≥25)?

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The normal curve

m = 27.2 kg/m2 What proportion of

s = 3.5 kg/m2 Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years, are
overweight (BMI≥25)?

z-score
= (25-27.2)/3.5
= -0.63
Z score -0.63

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The normal curve

m = 27.2 kg/m2 What proportion of

s = 3.5 kg/m2 Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years, are
overweight (BMI≥25)?

z-score
= (25-27.2)/3.5
= -0.63
Z score -0.63

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The normal curve

m ~ 27.2 kg/m2 What proportion of

s ~ 3.5 kg/m2 Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years, are
overweight (BMI≥25)?
0.258 z-score
= (25-27.2)/3.5
= -0.63
Z score -0.63

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The normal curve

m = 27.2 kg/m2 1 - 0.258 Proportion (percentage)

s = 3.5 kg/m2 = 0.742 of Melbourne men,
aged 40-69 years, that
are overweight is 0.742
(74%)
0.258
z-score
= (25-27.2)/3.5
Z score -0.63 = -0.63

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The normal curve

m = 27.2 kg/m2 What proportion of

s = 3.5 kg/m2 Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years have BMI
between 20 and 35?

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The normal curve

m = 27.2 kg/m2 What proportion of

s = 3.5 kg/m2 Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years have BMI
between 20 and 35?

z-score
= (35-27.2)/3.5
= 2.23
z-score
-2.06 2.23
= (20-27.2)/3.5
= -2.06

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The normal curve

m ~ 27.2 kg/m2 1 – 0.02 – 0.012 What proportion of

s ~ 3.5 kg/m2 = 0.968 Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years have BMI
between 20 and 35?

0.02 0.012
-2.06 2.23

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Question - 90% reference range

• Determine the range of BMI where 90% of Melbourne

men lie within?

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Question - 90% reference range

• Determine the range of BMI where 90% of Melbourne

men lie within?
m ~ 27.2 kg/m2
s ~ 3.5 kg/m2

Lower limit = m – (z×s) 0.90

Upper limit = m + (z×s)

Z score -z 0 +z

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Question - 90% reference range

m ~ 27.2 kg/m2
m = 27.2 kg/m2 and s = 3.5 kg/m2 s ~ 3.5 kg/m2

Lower limit = m – (1.645×s) 0.90

= 27.2 – (1.645 × 3.5)
= 21.4 kg/m 2

Upper limit = m + (1.645×s) Z score -1.645 0 +1.645

= 27.2 + (1.645 × 3.5)
= 33.0 kg/m 2

The 90% reference range for BMI of Melbourne men (age 40-69 yrs) is 21.4 kg/m 2
up to 33.0 kg/m 2.

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Question - 95% reference range

m ~ 27.2 kg/m2
m = 27.2 kg/m2 and s = 3.5 kg/m2 s ~ 3.5 kg/m2

Lower limit = m – (1.96×s) 0.95

= 27.2 – (1.96 × 3.5)
= 20.34 kg/m 2

Upper limit = m + (1.96×s) Z score -1.96 0 +1.96

= 27.2 + (1.96 × 3.5)
= 34.06 kg/m 2

The 95% reference range for BMI of Melbourne men (age 40-69 yrs) is 20.34 kg/m 2
up to 34.06 kg/m 2.

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Question

m = 171.5 cm What proportion of

s = 6.5 cm Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years, are shorter
than 175cm?

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Question

m = 171.5 cm What proportion of

s = 6.5 cm Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years, are shorter
than 175cm?
1 - 0.291 =
0.709 0.291

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Question

m = 171.5 cm What proportion of

s = 6.5 cm Melbourne men, aged
40-69 years, are shorter
than 175cm?
1 - 0.291 =
0.709 0.291 z-score
= (175-171.5)/6.5
= 0.54

0.54

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Summary

• Normal distribution
– Standard normal curve
– Using z-scores & statistical
tables to calculate
probabilities associated with
any value of a normally
distributed variable.

• Reference range

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