2011 Movies

BIGDATA K32

Group #2
Espiña, Dannielle Meyer L.
Francisco, Shiela May K.
Gao, Queenie C.

March 16, 2021

 Table of Contents

I. Overview 2
II. Problem 5
III. Objective 6
IV. Methodology 6
A. Data 6
B. Results 9
V. Alternative Course of Action 13
A. Interactive Movies / “Choose-your-own-adventure” concept 13
B. Turning Books to Movie Adaptation 13
C. Streaming old movies through partnered online platforms 15
VI. Recommendation 17
VII. References 18

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 I. Overview

The motion picture industry is a competitive business. With film companies and
individual independent filmmakers producing and spending a huge amount of money to
make a lot of movies each year globally, only a small fraction of it only got to reach the
big screen of the cinema (Cinema Welcome, 2018). Moreover, due to the COVID-19
pandemic, the film industry is greatly impacted and its growth rate has slowed down.
The spread of the virus has enabled people to stay in their homes and that includes
actors, producers, directors, and others that are involved in the making of the film, to
stop their operations. In summary, film production has been halted and cinemas are
closed to ensure the control of the spreading of the virus. Overall, it is expected that the
industry will fall by 24.5% in 2020, will grow by 12.4% by 2022, and will gradually grow
2.0% each year, having an average of -1.9% rate of change of the market in the period
2019 to 2024 (Marketline, 2020). The specific analysis of this paper will focus on the
movies released last 2011, studying the correlation between the number of weeks ,the
number of theaters movies that were released, total gross sales ($ million) , and
opening gross sales ($ million).

Opening Total Gross Number of Weeks in

Gross Sales Sales Theaters Release
($ million) ($ million)

Mean 27.5149 90.466 3114.35 14.58

Median 19.08 72.4 3102.5 14.5

Mode - 37.3 3555 16

Standard 26.5156 68.125 610.7903 5.0496

Deviation

Standard 2.65156 6.8125 61.07903 0.505

error

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Sample 703.0768091 4640.969516 373064.7348 25.49858586
variance

Kurtosis 10.56196 4.681961 1.189055 9.607336

Skewness 2.88580475 1.996161 -0.72670616 1.9905464

Minimum 0.07 29.14 1038 6

Maximum 169.19 381.01 4375 43

Table 1: General Statistics of 2011 Movies

Presented in the table are the statistical values derived from the given
data set, the researchers were able to acquire the mean, median, mode,
standard deviation, standard error, sample variance, kurtosis, skewness, and the
minimum and maximum values.

Figure 1: Histogram of Opening Gross Sales

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 As shown above, the data are skewed to the right. The mean of the opening
gross sale on the 2011 movies is 27.5149 million dollars, with a minimum gross sales of
29.14 million dollars and a maximum of 381.01 dollars.

Figure 2: Histogram of Total Gross Sales

As shown above, the data are skewed to the right. Also, the mean total gross
sale on the 2011 movies is 90.466 million dollars, with a minimum gross sales of 0.07
million dollars and a maximum of 169.19 dollars.

Figure 3: Histogram of Number of Theaters

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 As shown above, the data are skewed to the right. The mean number of theaters
on the 2011 movies is 3114.35 theaters, with a minimum number of theaters of 1038
theaters and a maximum of 4375 theaters.

Figure 4: Histogram of weeks in release

As presented above, the data are skewed to the right. The mean of weeks in a
release on the 2011 movies is 14.58, with a minimum number of releases of 6 weeks
and maximum of 43 weeks.

II. Main Problem

Based on the given set of data, movies released in 2011 only had a mean or an
average total gross sales of $90 million. Such amount does not meet the expected
revenue garnered from movies and that is reaching a minimum of $1 billion. However,
this huge growth from $90 million to $1 billion poses the main question on how
production companies will do it. According to the analyzed data provided, there is a
strong positive relationship between Total Gross Sales with Number of Theaters and
Opening Gross Sales, while a weak positive relationship with Weeks in Release (​see
figures 6,7, and 8)​ . Thus, it is safe to conclude that movies should be released in a

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higher number of theaters. However, as mentioned, a pandemic has currently struck the
world, and with that, it disrupted the normal operations of production companies in
producing movies.

An analysis has shown that there is a positive correlation between box office
revenue and the genre of a movie. It has been found that adventure and action genres
are the most profitable, where comedy is third and the least profitable is Horror. Sequels
or movie franchises also work best as it has low risks in terms of receiving low revenue.
Furthermore, actors used in movies play a big role as it is predicted to add $10 million to
a sale (Niu, 2019).

III. Objective

Similar to other businesses, the motion picture industry's objective is to maximize

profit. Specifically, it aims to increase gross sales per movie from millions to billions of
dollars.

IV. Methodology

A. Data

In this study, the researchers use correlation as the statistical tool to assess or
evaluate the relationship between the given set of data. Moreover, correlation is a
quantitative assessment that gives information about the magnitude of the association
and the direction of the relationship between variables (Statistics Solutions, n.d.). With
this, the researchers will be able to identify the relationships between opening gross
sales ($million), total gross sales ($ million), weeks in release, and number of theaters.

Furthermore, in using this method, a correlation coefficient is a measure to

evaluate the relationship of the variables to each other through a value ranging between
-1 and 1. A coefficient or a value of 0 indicates that there is no linear relationship

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between the variables at all. A range of values from -0.50 to -0.99 indicates a negative
strong relationship. A value of -0.01 to -0.49 indicates a negative weak relationship. A
value of 0.01 to 0.49 indicates a positive weak relationship. A value of 0.5 to 0.99
indicates a strong positive relationship. Lastly, a value of -1 indicates a negative perfect
relationship, while a value of 1 indicates a positive perfect relationship.

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Figure 5: Data Provided for 2011 Movie

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 B. Results

Opening Number of Weeks in Total Gross

Gross Sales Theaters Release Sales
($ millions) ($ million)

Opening Gross 1
Sales ($ million)

Number of 0.647325753 1
Theaters

Weeks in release 0.175560617 -0.017761445 1

Total Gross Sales 0.887448443 0.640741325 0.333420108 1

($ million)

Table 2 : Correlation Coefficient for 2011 Movies’ Data

Opening Gross Sales and Weeks in Release

As shown in the table above, opening gross sales and weeks in release has a
weak positive relationship with a correlation value of 0.18. This implies that even though
their relation is not that very strong, both variables directly respond to one another
(Cherry, 2020).

Number of Theaters and Weeks in release

As shown in the table above, the number of theaters and week in release has a
weak negative relationship with a correlation value of -0.02. This implies that both
variables indirectly respond to one another.

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Opening Gross Sales and Total Gross Sales

Figure 6 : Opening Gross Sales and Total Gross Sales Scatter Plot

Shown above is the relationship of the two variables that has shown a strong
positive linear relationship based on the scatter diagram presented. It can be seen how
the total gross sales increase compared to its opening gross sale. This happened to
most movies where its growth doubled from the initial gross sales. One of the outliers
had a huge growth from its opening sales such as from 12.79 million dollars to 208.55
million dollars. This movie is Mission Impossible-Ghost Protocol starring Tom Cruise.
One factor could be, the actor of the movie and the other is more of the stunt moves.
The most notable scene from this movie was when the actor, Tom Cruise, climbed the
tallest building in the world, the Burj Khalifa, without the help of CGI or stunt doubles
(Davidson, n.d.). This outlier is important to take note of and should not be disregarded
as it presents a great chance for movies released to accumulate 20 times more than

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their opening gross sales only if they consider important factors such as the plot or
genre, for example.

Total Gross Sales and Weeks in Release

Figure 7: Total Gross Sales and Weeks in Release Scatter Plot

Analyzing the scatter plot, it can be deduced that somehow, weeks in the release
has an impact on the total gross sales. However, its correlation is a weak positive
relationship that we cannot actually rely on the number of weeks a movie should be
released. This can be more understood by the farthest outlier. The movie Priest was
released for a total of 43 weeks, but the total gross sale it had was only $56.81 million.
Now, compare this with the Harry Potter Deathly Hallows Two that had 19 weeks in
release only, but accumulated a total of $381.01 million, this goes the same well with
Transformers: Dark of the Moon which released for 15 weeks and accumulated a
$352.39 million. These two movies are both from the popular franchise which had a
previous movie before the 2011 release. The Transformers franchise has a unique
storyline that targets both adults and children, from having its comedy and action
genres. Furthermore, its revenue was mostly accumulated from international theaters
such as in China, India, and South America (Whitten,2017).

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Total Gross Sales (in $ million) and Number of Theaters

Figure 8 :​ N
​ umber of Theaters and Total Gross Sales Scatter Plot

This scatter diagram shown above has a positive linear relationship with a
correlation value of 0.64. Analyzing the relation of the two variables, it can be deduced
that total gross sales is accumulated based on the number of theaters a movie is
released. More than half of the movies released were in the range of 3,001 to 4,999
theaters (​see figure 4). ​This shows that the higher the number of theaters a movie is
released in, the higher the total gross sales it accumulates. One of the outliers is the
farthest outlier in the right which specifically had 381.01 million dollars in total gross
sales and was released in a total of 4,375 theaters. One factor for its popularity is that
Harry Potter is already a popular franchise from the book and from the first movie it
debuted. It also had a perfect timing on when the book was written and the film was
released (Stein, 2017).

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 V. Three Alternative Course of Action

A) Interactive Movies / “Choose-your-own-adventure” concept

The well-known interactive film that had the audiences shocked and excited is
the Bandersnatch movie released by Netflix which also received an Emmy award
(Netflix, n.d.). However, this movie did not exactly have all the support from critics and
audiences as some viewed it as a waste of time. Audiences had a hard time trying to
make the movie more interesting but is continuously brought back to where they were
before (Ryan, 2019). To define, interactive films or television allows audiences to control
the decision of the characters present on the screen. This can be done through remote
controls or simply by pressing the screen if the technology allows it (Dhir, 2021). This
kind of genre allows the users to give the characters in the films their own future based
on the audiences’ decisions. The Netflix company is known for releasing interactive
films and TV Shows such as Carmen Sandiego, Puss in Book, Boss Baby, and
Minecraft (Radulovic, 2021). The development of these kinds of films allow Netflix and
other online streaming companies to prevent pirated movies. It is harder to pirate this
kind of genre as it requires a specific program and data embedded in the film (Damiani,
2019). As unique as this may be, this genre is not entirely looked forward to by
audiences. Statista has reported that only 29% of the 2,000 people interviewed are
somewhat interested, 23% say not very interested, and only 14% say that they are very
interested in watching this kind of movie.

B) Turning Books to Movie Adaptation

The publishing industry plays a vital role in content discovery for film, TV and
theatre, and is one of the leading sources for materials used in these fields. According
to The Publishers Association, film productions based on books typically earn
significantly more money than the ones based on original screenplays (as cited in
Wood, 2018). Thus, a strong two-way relationship between the publishing industry and

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film production companies exists evidently. Capitalizing on this would be a great factor
towards the success of achieving the business goal of maximizing the industry profit.

A research from The Publishers Association (PA) has shown that films based on
books generate 44% more revenue at the box office in the UK and 53% more than
original screenplays worldwide (Wood, 2018). In fact, according to Frontier Economics,
70% of the world’s top 20 grossing films are based on books (as cited in Rothwell,
2019). Nowadays, film adaptations aren’t strictly literary classics but rather span across
a broad range of genres such as mysteries, thrillers, horror, and romance novels.
Moreover, according to 1992 statistics, 85% of all Oscar-winning “Best Pictures” are
adaptations. And it’s no wonder why there are countless film adaptations that virtually
defined their ages and provided catch-phrases and concepts significant to the popular
culture (Odinity, n.d.). However, Rothwell (2019) stated in an article that the percentage
of books to movie adaptations differ every year, sometimes significantly, as trends in
popular culture must be taken into consideration.

The same academic research from The Publisher Association (PA) suggests that
adapted films tend to perform better as these films can leverage the popularity of
well-renowned books through an existing audience. The book or the author already
have a following that equates to guaranteed audiences, ensuring that it will not flop at
the box-office (Rothwell, 2019). In addition to this, due to modern social media, the
audience has the ability to spread the word about adaptations allowing for it to become
a part of popular culture. Furthermore, according to Follows (2014), the genres of
Adventure, Drama, and Horror have a larger percentage of adaptations from literary
fiction than original screenplays. One possible reason for this is the expectations for a
more complex plot. Hence, a popular novel from these genres are sought after as the
plot and storyline are already proved to work and appeal to an audience (Rothwell
2019).

As with everything, there are always disadvantages. According to Morgan (2021),

adapting a popular book into a movie is a risky proposition. There will always be a

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comparison between the book and the film and criticisms towards assembling the right
cast. Also, novels, even the good ones, that have been adapted to films are
occasionally viewed by audiences in a negative way. Some films take altering a novel to
suit the medium, which sometimes lead to changes that make the book unrecognizable.
Thus, it can upset the pre-existing audience of the books which can dissuade them from
supporting the movie adaptation. A case in point is the Golden Compass which was
based on Philip Pullman’s His Dark Materials trilogy. It was an extremely popular
fantasy novel series featuring big names, like Nicole Kidman, in its movie adaptation.
However, it flopped at the box office resulting in the dismissal of any plans for the other
two books to be a movie franchise (Morgan, 2021).

To maximize profit, it is best for the movie streamed on both online platforms such
as Netflix, HBO, or rentals on Youtube, and an old concept of Drive-In-Theaters. Its
popularity has been rising once again brought by the pandemic. Some people prefer to
watch in this form as it gives better privacy, experience, and comfort (Ryu,2020).
Drive-in-theaters usually cost around $10 individually or per car and usually, they profit
10% of each ticket. If operated all season, a profit of $100,000 to $150,000 is expected.
Moreover, it gets income from the food and drinks it offers (TRUiC, 2020). It is a great
idea to partner up with existing companies who own land and rent it to minimize
expenses. Streaming both at the same time will provide people the option to whether
stay at home or drive in. One important disadvantage for both is that it is easier to
perform piracy.

C) Streaming old movies through partnered online platforms

In this alternative course of action, movie production companies will not produce
any movies but will use old movies to stream on online platforms. In this way, movie
studios can still make money through licensing them to streaming platforms like Netflix.

Netflix is the leading online streaming platform producing their own TV shows
and movies, as well as, streaming others as well. The application is accessed through

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monthly subscriptions and can be streamed in any digital technology such as mobile
phones, laptops, and televisions. However, the movies and TV shows it provides are
different in each country as each state has their own preferences. Its success in
operating since 1997, made it possible for them to be the most nominated studio at the
Emmys and winning four academy awards (Netflix,2020). They also now have a total of
203.67 million subscribers worldwide where 73 million subscribers are from the US
(Statista, 2021).

Online streaming platforms like Netflix will be a great help towards the
maximization of profit of movies produced as it could be streamed on this platform.
According to Statista, the pandemic made consumers prefer to stay and stream films in
their homes than go to cinemas. Furthermore, Pricewaterhouse Cooper (PWC) has
stated that 76% of consumers are satisfied with digital video content right now.
However, Netflix’s market share in the industry has lessened as more streaming
services have been developed such as Hulu, HBO, Disney+, and AppleTV.
Nevertheless, it is still one of the leading streaming platforms. It is also a great
advantage to take as consumers expect that they will pay more in upcoming years as
the content rises. Despite this, 33% of consumers are still willing to invest more in
improved services and 21% are willing to pay more in order to access ad-free content.
Agreeing on a licensing deal with Netflix will enable movies or TV shows to be streamed
by its users as well as, marketed by Netflix’s own effort (Beers,2020).

Youtube is also a popular video content application and it is a social network. Its
difference with Netflix is that it is geared towards the production of videos from different
people who wish to publish their contents and are easily shared and accessed by
different viewers. Youtube has 2.3 billion users worldwide in the year 2020 and is
considered to be the second most popular social media platform. Not only this, but
Youtube is watched by users for a total of 1 billion hours of videos, generating billions of
views in video contents. Thus, it is a powerful marketing tool to release trailers or
snippets of the movie on this platform (Mohshin,2021).

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VI. Recommendation

The group’s recommended course of action is the second alternative course of

action. In this way, not only movie studios are producing new and good movies to
entertain their target audience. It also gives an option to them to watch it through online
streaming sites for people who want to continuously stay at home for safety or through
drive-thru cinemas for the experience and comfort. At the same time, it offers an
adaptation from books to movies which was mentioned to have a higher success rate
and revenue than original screenplays.

Assuming that the cost will be the same from the theater and online streaming
platforms, 23% have chosen equally likely at home and theater, 20% at home, 22%
probably at home, 13% at a theater, and 22% probably at a theater (Arkenberg, et.al.,
2020). This means that online streaming platforms like Netflix can be a huge success.
For those who still choose theater, the option of drive-thru theaters is still open and can
still be accessed, but with a limited number of drive-thru theaters available, showing of
movies in drive-thru theater can also contribute to the gross sale of the movie.
Moreover, it was mentioned that most consumers are satisfied with the present features
of online streaming platforms and they are willing to pay more for better services. Thus,
it is the best way films produced can maximize their profit while keeping in mind the
genre they should provide.

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