> April 2015 , pages 12 and 13

1 translation
In Libya, it's not chaos, it's war

Negotiation or intervention, shared neighbors

by Akram Belkaïd 

"I
There is no question of encouraging any foreign military intervention in Libya and even less of participating in
it. Our will is to help our Libyan brothers to find common ground to resolve their differences. To do the opposite
would create even more disorder and endanger the future of this country.  " The intention is clear and wants
without shades. For this senior Algerian diplomat who requested anonymity, Algeria intends to encourage the
two rival Libyan factions, that of Tripoli and that of Tobruk, to continue the negotiations conducted under the
aegis of the United Nations. For Algiers, Mr. Bernardino León, United Nations Special Representative for Libya, would
even be "  the man for the job  ".In 2011, the Algerian government had already refused to support the air intervention of
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) against the regime of Muammar Gadhafi. This has long earned him the
hostility of a large part of the thuwar ("  revolutionaries  "), whether they are Islamists or they currently gravitate in the
entourage of General Khalifa Haftar. But today, for the Libyans on both sides, Algiers as well as Tunis are essential
partners in the search for a peaceful solution.

This is also true of Rabat. At the beginning of March, the Moroccan neighbor and rival hosted in the coastal town of
Skhirat the indirect discussions between the representatives of the government recognized by the Western States and
those of the General National Congress (CNG) close to the Islamist militia Dawn of Libya. According to Hasni Abidi,
political scientist and lecturer at the University of Geneva, “  there is a concordance of views between Algiers and Rabat
to avoid further NATO action in Libya. The challenges of regional stability are enormous  ”.This common position would
today be supported by several countries of the Sahel, aware that an intervention of Western troops would have the
consequence of provoking an influx of jihadist groups currently active in Libya. Nigerien President Mahamadou Issoufou,
however, spoke in the opposite direction last December: "  We need a military intervention to repair the damage linked to
the fall of Gaddafi, otherwise we will have Daesh at our doors  ( 1 ) .  "

In this context of regional prudence, Egypt chooses its camp. Supported financially and militarily by the United Arab
Emirates and, to a lesser degree, by Saudi Arabia, Marshal Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi supports General Haftar, while
reproaching Qatar for arming its enemies with Dawn of Libya . After having engaged its air force in raids against Islamist
militias, in particular in Derna on February 16, Cairo would prepare a major offensive in the event of failure, or quite
simply suspension, of the interlibyan negotiations. And, while the United States condemns any intervention, questions
are multiplying as to the intentions of France and its European partners, in particular Italy and the United Kingdom. At
the start of the year, the French defense minister spoke of a " terrorist hub  ” in Libya and called on the African Union, the
United Nations and neighboring countries to “  take up this burning security issue  ”  ( 2 ) . But Paris now intends to
promote a "  political solution  " with the emergence of a government of national unity capable of better organizing the
fight against terrorist groups  ( 3 ). This approach takes into account as much the Algerian refusal to engage militarily
as the impossibility, for the French army, to open a new front while the operations of stabilization of Mali and the battle
against the Organization of the State Islamic studies appear far from over.

Akram Belkaïd

( 1 )  Jeune Afrique, Paris, December 29, 2014.

( 2 )  “ Jean-Yves Le Drian:“ The militarization of terrorism requires a military response ” [http://www.lejdd.fr/International/Jean-Yves-Le-

Drian-La-militarisation-du-terrorisme-exige-une-reponse-militaire-708900] ”, Le Journal du dimanche, Paris, December 28, 2014. 
[http://www.lejdd.fr/International/Jean-Yves-Le-Drian-La-militarisation-du-terrorisme-exige-une-reponse-militaire-708900] 

( 3 )  Official statement by the spokesperson for the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Paris, March 18, 2015.