 Submitted by:

Malik M Adil
 Submitted To:
Ma’am Mehwish
 Roll Number:
Bbhm-f20-041
  Numerical#1
λ=144 x−3 x 2-𝔁y-2 y 2+120y-35
Taking derivation of both (𝔁) and (y).
d
=144−6 x− y _ _ _ _ _ __ (1)
dx

dy
=−x−4 y +120 _ _ _ _ _ _ (2)
dx
Multiply equation (1) with 4
= 576-24𝔁-120 _ _ _ _ _ (1)
Now, subtract equation (1) with (2)
-24𝔁-4y+576
-𝔁-4y+120
-23𝔁+456
-23𝔁+456=0
23𝔁=456
456
=x
23
𝔁=19.8

Now, put the value of 𝔁 in equation (2).

=-𝔁-4y+120
=-(19.8)-4y+120
-19.8+120=4y
100.2=4y
100.2
=y
4
y =25.05
Now, put value in (𝔁) and (y), in the equation
 𝛌=144𝔁-3 x 2-𝔁y-2 y 2 +120−35

𝛌=144𝔁-3 x 2−x y −2 y 2+120−35

𝛌=144(19.82)-3( 19.82 )2−( 19.82 ) ( 25.045 )−¿ 2 ( 25.045 )2+120(25.045)-35

𝛌=2851.2-1176.12-495.99-1255.055+3006-35

𝛌=2895.085
Recheck, now increases and decrease one value in both
𝛌=144x-3 x 2-xy-2 y 2 +120 y−35
Put value of x and y
Increase
𝔁=20.8, y=26.05

𝛌=144(20.8)-3( 20.8 )2− (20.8 )( 26.05 ) −2 ( 26.05 )2 +120 ( 26.05 )−35

𝛌=2889, 235
Decrease:
𝔁=18.8, y = 24.05

𝛌=144(18.8)-3(18.8)2−( 18,8 ) ( 24.05 )−2 ( 24.05 )2 +120 ( 24.05 )−35

λ=2888.935
  Numerical #2

𝛌=144𝔁-3 x 2−x y −2 y 2 +120 y−35

Constraint 𝔁+y=14
Getting value of (𝔁)
𝔁=14-y
Put the value of (𝔁) in equation
𝛌=144(14-y)-3( 14− y )2−( 14− y ) y−2 y 2+ 120 y −35
𝛌=2016-144y-3( 196+ y 2−28 y )-14y+ y 2−2 y 2 +120−35
𝛌=2016-144y-588-3 y 2 +84 y −14 y + y 2−2 y 2+ 120 y −35
𝛌=-4 y 2 +46 y +1393
Taking derivation
dy
=−8 y +46
dx

8y-46=0
46
y=8

y =5.75
Now, put value in constant value
𝔁+y =14
𝔁+5.75=14
𝔁=14-5.75
𝔁=8.25
 Numerical #3

Moving Average Method

Time Sell S5Q E(S-S5Q) E2
Q1 20 - - -
Q2 22 - - -
Q3 23 - - -
Q4 24 - - -
Q5 18 - - -
Q6 23 21.4 1.6 2.56
Q7 19 22 -3 9
Q8 17 21.4 -4.4 19.36
Q9 22 20.2 1.8 3.24
Q10 23 19.8 3.2 10.24
Q11 18 20.8 -2.8 7.84
Q12 23 19.8 3.2 10.24
Q13 20.6
Sum of e2=62.48
2
RMSE= £ E
√ N

RMSE = 62.48
√ 12

RMSE= ±2.28
20.6-2.28=18.32
20.6+2.28=22.88
Type equation here .
18.32_ _ _ _22.88 is the range in which we start the business
production company get more profit then other
 1 Ratio-To-Trend Method
Years T S T TS(T*S) T2 S^ S/S^
Q1 11 1 11 1 12.29 0.89
Q2 15 2 30 4 12.68 1.18
2018

Q3 12 3 36 9 13.07 0.92
Q4 14 4 56 16 13.46 1.04
Q1 12 5 60 25 13.85 0.87
Q2 17 6 102 36 14.24 1.19
2019

Q3 13 7 91 49 14.63 0.89
Q4 16 8 128 64 15.02 1.06
Q1 14 9 126 81 15.41 0.90
Q2 18 10 180 100 15.8 1.14
2020

Q3 15 11 165 121 16.19 0.93

Q4 17 12 204 144 16.58 1.02
Q1 15 13 195 169 16.97 0.88
Q2 20 14 280 196 17.36 1.15
2021

Q3 16 15 240 225 17.75 0.90

Q4 19 16 304 256 18.14 1.04
Q1 17 18.53 16.49
Q2 18 18.92 22
2022

Q3 19 19.31 17.52
Q4 20 19.78 20.63

^S=S ° +bt

For getting S^ first we find (b) by using given formula:

n∈ TS−(∈ T )(∈ S)
b=
n ∈T 2−(ET )2

Now putting values in this:

n = 16, ∑TS = (2208), ∑T2 = (136), ∑S = (244), ∑T2 = (1496)

16 ( 2208 )−( 136 ) ( 244 )

b=
16 ( 1496 ) −( 136 )2
35328−33184
b=
23936−18496
2144
b=
5440
b=0.394

S° =
∑ S − b (∑ T )
n n
244 0.394 ( 136 )
S° = −
16 16
S° =11.9
^S=S ° +bt

^S=11.9+0.39(T )

…..
Ans written in table:
0.89+0.86+ 0.91+0.88
Q 1 of every year=
4
Q1 of every year=0.89∗18.53

Q1 of every year=16.49

:
1.18+1.19+1.13+1.15
Q 2 of every year=
4
Q2 of every year=3.78∗18.92

Q2 of every year=22

:
 0.91+0.89+ 0.92+ 0.90
Q 3 of every year=
4
Q3 of every year=0.905∗19.31

Q3 of every year=17.52

:
1.04+1.06+1.02+1.04
Q 4 of every year =
4
Q4 of every year =1.04∗19.78

Q4 of every year =20.63

Thank you.