Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2020) 142:1447–1462

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03389-9

ORIGINAL PAPER

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes in the arid

province of Pakistan with removal of the influence of natural climate
variability
Najeebullah Khan 1,2 & Shamsuddin Shahid 2 & Eun-Sung Chung 3 & Farida Behlil 4 & Mohamad S.J. Darwish 2

Received: 12 May 2020 / Accepted: 15 September 2020 / Published online: 22 September 2020
# Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020

Abstract
Natural variability of climate considerably affects hydro-climatic trend significance, and therefore, removal of such
influence is essential to understand the unidirectional trends due to global warming. The objective of this study was
to evaluate the trends in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan by removing the natural variability
of climate to understand the effect of global warming on precipitation extremes during two major cropping seasons,
Rabi and Kharif. Daily precipitation data of APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data
Integration Towards Evaluation) for the period 1951–2015 was used for this purpose. An improved form of classical
Mann-Kendall (MK) test known as modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) was used which can estimate trends by
discarding the influence of natural cycles present in time series. The results were compared with the classical MK
test to show the novelty in the findings of this investigation. The results revealed a large influence of climate
fluctuations on the trends in all the extreme precipitation indices for both seasons. The reduction in trend signifi-
cance was noticed between 25 and 100% for different precipitation indices when MMK instead of MK test was
used. The reduction was observed more for the positive trends in the indices compared with negative trends. The
results revealed that global warming caused an increase in total annual precipitation at a rate of 2.8–34.8 mm/decade
during 1951–2015. Besides, the annual number of extreme precipitation days was found to increase in the north by
0.1–0.84 days/decade and the number of annual precipitation days to decrease in the west for all seasons up to − 8.6
days/decade. An increase in continuous precipitation days was detected by 0.6–1.0 day/decade in the northeast while
a decrease by − 0.5 to − 1.0 days/decade in the southwest and northwest. The continuous dry days decreased in the
north and the central regions by up to − 6.3 days/decade while a rise in 1-day maximum precipitation by 6.6–35
mm/decade in the central north. Analysis of results revealed that the overestimation of trends by classical MK test is
more in the arid region of Pakistan compared with other regions.

1 Introduction

* Najeebullah Khan
najeebmarri@gmail.com
1
Faculty of Engineering Sciences and Technology, Lasbela University
of Agriculture Water and Marine Sciences (LUAWMS),
Uthal, Balochistan 90150, Pakistan
2
Faculty of Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Universiti
Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia
3
Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of
Science & Technology, Seoul, South Korea
4
Department of Chemistry, Sardar Bahadur Khan Women’s
University, Quetta, Balochistan 87300, Pakistan
The rise in Earth’s temperature due to global warming has
affected evapotranspiration and atmospheric water storage
(Alamgir et al. 2019; Alamgir et al. 2020; Iqbal et al. 2019;
Khan et al. 2020b; Naumann et al. 2018). The atmospheric
imbalance caused a change in precipitation variability and a
rise in precipitation extreme (Alexander 2016; Filahi et al.
2016; Khan et al. 2019c; Lacombe et al. 2012; Salman et al.
2017b; Sharafati and Zahabiyoun 2014; Shiru et al. 2018).
The implications of rising precipitation extremes are more
severe in arid regions, particularly those having a diverse to-
pography due to subtle of hydrological cycles and ecological
processes in such regions to climate variability (Alamgir et al.
1448
2020; Almazroui et al. 2020; He et al. 2012; Sharafati and
Pezeshki 2020; Sharafati et al. 2020b). Previous studies
showed that increasing precipitation extremes have altered
the hydrology of the rivers originated in the high mountains
in the arid regions, which has increased the recurrence of
floods and droughts and caused disruptions in socio-
economic activities of the people living in downstream or
low-lying areas (Beniston et al. 1997; Bhunia et al. 2020;
Sharafati et al. 2020a).
The arid climate and high topographic variations have
made Balochistan, the biggest province of Pakistan highly
prone to climate variability. Studies reported a larger shift in
climatic extremes in the southern and western arid regions of
Pakistan (Khan et al. 2019b; Khan et al. 2019d; Salma et al.
2012; Zahid and Rasul 2012; Zahida and Rasula 2011). The
impact of such changes is already noticeable in the region. The
province has experienced some of the most devastating floods,
droughts, and other climatic extremes in recent years (Ahmed
et al. 2016; Akhtar 2011; Memon et al. 2015; van Steenbergen
1997). Assessment of ongoing trends in precipitation ex-
tremes is very important for the region for adaptation
planning.
Several studies have been carried out in Pakistan to evalu-
ate the trends in precipitation and precipitation extremes
(Aamir and Hassan 2018; Ahmad et al. 2014a; Ahmad et al.
2014b; Latif et al. 2018; Ullah et al. 2018b). Mann-Kendall
(MK) trend test was mostly applied to datasets having differ-
ent spatial resolutions and temporal extents to estimate the
trends. The MK test was adopted considering its advantage
of insensitivity to inhomogeneity and missing values in time
series (Khan et al. 2019b; Shahid 2010; Yue and Wang 2004).
However, the MK test shows a higher trend significance in
auto-correlated climate data series which generally appears
due to natural variability in climate (Hamed 2008; Yue and
Wang 2002). To remove such influence, it is suggested that
either the autocorrelation from the time series should be re-
moved (Yue and Wang 2002) or the MK test should be mod-
ified to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation (Hamed 2008;
Hamed and Rao 1998).
It is generally argued that natural variability alters climate
for a period of fewer than 30 years (Salman et al. 2017a).
However, recent studies showed that the influence of dry
and wet periods can exist for more than 50 years (Lacombe
et al. 2012; Markonis and Koutsoyiannis 2016). Several stud-
ies showed that trend significance is also responsive to this
long-term persistence (LTP) infested in hydro-climatic data
series (Ehsanzadeh and Adamowski 2010; Fathian et al.
2015; Khan et al. 2019a; Khan et al. 2019d; Machiwal and
Jha 2012; Shiru et al. 2018). The LTP also causes an overes-
timation of trend significance when analyzed using the MK
test (Koutsoyiannis 2003; Markonis and Koutsoyiannis
2016). Hamed (2008) presented an improved variety of the
MK test (MMK) to eliminate the effect of LTP in trend
N. Khan et al.
significance. It can also be used to differentiate the unidirec-
tional trend from that caused by climate fluctuations (Ahmed
et al. 2016; Hadi Pour et al. 2019; Nashwan and Shahid 2019).
Studies using MMK test showed that most of earlier estimated
hydro-climatic trends using MK test were due to natural cli-
mate variability which would not prevail (Iqbal et al. 2019;
Khan et al. 2019a; Khan et al. 2019d; Shahid et al. 2014;
Tyralis et al. 2017).
This study intended an assessment of unidirectional trends
in precipitation extremes in the arid region of Pakistan due to
global warming using gridded precipitation data. Previous
studies have shown significant changes in the precipitation
using MK test, which cannot distinguish unidirectional trends
from the trends that occur due to long-term variability of cli-
mate. Therefore, the geographical distribution of unidirection-
al trends in precipitation extremes obtained using MMK test
was compared with that obtained using the MK test to show
the novelty in findings of this investigation. It is expected that
a reduction in the significance of precipitation trend can be
ascertained when assessed using MMK along with MK test.
The trend maps generated in this study have the potential to be
used by policymakers and stakeholders for climate resilience
planning.
2 Data and sources
Balochistan (61° 00′–70° 30′ E, 25° 00′–32° 00′ N) is the
largest of the four provinces of Pakistan with a landmass of
347,190 km2 which occupies 44% of the country. The loca-
tion of Balochistan and its topography are shown in Fig. 1.
The study area is less populated mountainous and desert land.
Its climate is characterized by cool winter and hot summer
with a mean temperature of 10 °C and 30 °C, respectively.
The annual precipitation of the province varies between 30
and 400 mm from the northwest to the northeast (Durrani
et al. 2018). The climate of the western desert is categorized
as hyper-arid and the rest as arid and semi-arid (Ahmed et al.
2016). The western disturbances and the Indian monsoon are
the sources of most precipitation over Balochistan. About
58% of the total precipitation occurs due to western distur-
bance and 31% due to Indian monsoon. The rural population
depending on agriculture comprises 80% of the total popula-
tion of the province (Baloch and Thapa 2018), and therefore,
these two rainy seasons are highly important for Balochistan.
Two important cropping seasons, Rabi (November–April) and
Kharif (May–October), overlap with the two rainy seasons
(van Steenbergen 1997). Flood and droughts due to rainfall
extremes during these two seasons can have severe implica-
tions on agriculture and people’s livelihood in the region.
Balochistan is the aridest province of Pakistan. A large
variation of topography with a sparse and erratic precipitation
pattern has made the region highly vulnerable to climate
Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan with removal of the...
Fig. 1 The geographical position
of Balochistan (Pakistan) on the
map of South-Central Asia, the
grey area in the map showing the
rest of the country. The color
ramp shows the topographic var-
iability in the province. The loca-
tion of the meteorological stations
in Balochistan is shown on the
map using a circled number
change. Previous studies recognized it as one of the most
vulnerable regions of Pakistan to climate change (Ahmed
et al. 2016). Therefore, it was selected as the case study area
in the present study.
Balochistan has a total of 14 meteorological stations oper-
ated by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (Ahmed et al.
2016). Considering a landmass of 347,190 km2 with high
variability in topography, the spatial distribution of the sta-
tions is highly sparse. The temporal extent of the data is also
a significant limitation of their use for trend analysis (Khan
et al. 2018). Gridded datasets are usually employed for climat-
ic studies in such regions (Gampe and Ludwig 2017; Khan
et al. 2019e; Sa'adi et al. 2017; Shiru et al. 2019). Over the
years, climatologists have developed different types of
gridded datasets (Salman et al. 2017b). However, the
1449
availability of high-resolution gridded daily precipitation data
for a longer period is still limited. In this study, Asian
Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data
Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) was
employed for calculation of different extreme precipitation
indices due to its higher spatiotemporal resolution and com-
paratively better performance over the Asian monsoon region
(Caesar et al. 2015; Darand and Daneshvar 2014; Khan et al.
2019a; Sushama et al. 2014).
The APHRODITE dataset has a temporal extent of 1951–
2007 and 2008–2015 (V1101 and V1101EX_R1, respective-
ly) and a spatial resolution of 0.25° (Yatagai et al. 2012). The
combined version of APHRODITE datasets with a total tem-
poral extent of 64 years (1951–2015) was used in this study.
The trends in extreme precipitation indices were estimated at
1450
574 APHRODITE grid points to cover the study area. The
geographical distribution of APHRODITE annual and season-
al precipitation in Balochistan for the period 1951–2015 is
presented in Fig. 2. The figure shows the west and northwest
regions get more precipitation during Rabi and the east and
northeast during Kharif.
In this study, seven precipitation indices were calculated.
Table 1 shows the indices and their definitions. The indices
were calculated either on an annual or seasonal scale (Rabi
and Kharif season). Among the indices, the total amount of
precipitation (Tot) and 1-day maximum precipitation (Mx1D)
were estimated in mm and the rest were defined in days.
3 Methodology
APHRODITE data for the period 1951–2015 was first vali-
dated by comparing it with observed precipitation data using a
set of statistical indices. The autocorrelation function and
Hurst coefficient of annual precipitation time series at all the
grid points were also estimated to show the presence of short-
and long-term autocorrelation in time series and, thus, the
requirement of MMK test for the assessment of trend signifi-
cance. The annual and seasonal values of extreme precipita-
tion indices (Table 1) were estimated from the daily precipi-
tation time series at all the grid points. The rate of change and
the significance of the change in annual and seasonal precip-
itation extremes at all the APHRODITE grid points were
estimated using Sen’s slope estimator and MK and
MMK test, respectively. Obtained results at all the grid
points were plotted to prepare maps to show the spatial
distribution of trends in precipitation extremes in the
study area. Details of the methods are given in the
following sub-sections.
3.1 Verification of APHRODITE in Balochistan
APHRODITE data was validated using observed data before
their use. Quality of observed data is important for an unbi-
ased verification of gridded data. To assess the homogeneity
Fig. 2 Geographical variations of a annual, b Rabi, and c Kharif precipitations over Balochistan
N. Khan et al.
in in situ precipitation data, the subjective double mass curve
(DMS) and Student’s t test (STT) were used. Among the 14
stations, missing data were found very high at 3 stations.
Therefore, observed precipitation at 11 stations (as shown in
Fig. 1) was used for the validation of APHRODITE data.
However, data of all the 14 stations were considered for the
development of DMS.
The APHRODITE precipitation was compared with ob-
served precipitation using a set of performance indices, root
mean square error (RMSE) (McKeen et al. 2005), percentage
of bias (PBIAS) (Yapo et al. 1996), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency
(NSE) (Nash and Sutcliffe 1970), modified index of agree-
ment (md) (Willmott 1981), and coefficient of determination
(R) (Nagelkerke 1991).
3.2 Autocorrelation
The autocorrelation function was used to characterize the cy-
cles in precipitation. The autocorrelation function (rk) of data,
Y1, Y2, ..., YN estimated at time X1, X2, ..., XN with a lag k is
represented as (Box and Jenkins 1976):
N−k
∑ ðY i −YÞðY iþk − YÞ
i¼1
rk ¼ N
ð1Þ
∑ ðY i −YÞ2
i¼1
3.3 Sen’s slope estimator
Sen’s slope estimator (Sen 1968) measures the change (Q/)
between two subsequent data points, xt and xt = at t and t/,
respectively:
Q= ¼xt = −xt t = −t
= ð2Þ
The Sen’s slope is estimated as the median of all the slopes
Q./
Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan with removal of the... 1451

Table 1 Definition of
precipitation indices adopted in Index Description Unit
the current study
Tot Aggregated amount of annual precipitation mm
p99 Number of days having precipitation > 99th percentile precipitation of the base year Days
(1961–1990)
p95 Number of days having precipitation > 95th percentile precipitation of the base year Days
(1961–1990)
PD Number of days in a year with precipitation ≥ 1 mm Days
CWD Number of continuous days with precipitation ≥ 1 mm Days
CDD Number of continuous days without precipitation Days
Mx1D Maximum amount of precipitation in a day mm

3.4 MK and MMK trend tests 4 Results

The MMK test is conducted only when the MK test (Mann
1945; Kendall 1948) shows a significance in trend. For MMK
test, the corresponding normal variants (Zi) of a detrended
series (Ri) are acquired from an inverse standard normal dis-
tribution (ϕ−1) as:


−1 Ri
Z i ¼ϕ for i¼1:n ð3Þ
nþ1
The Hurst coefficient (H) was then used to evaluate the
presence of long-term autocorrelation in time series. A signif-
icant long-lag correlation in time series means the presence of
a long-period cycle in the series or presence of LTP. The
strength of LTP was measured using H for its value of more
than 0.5. The value of H can be measured by maximizing the
likelihood function (McLeod and Hipel 1978):
4.1 Characteristics of annual precipitation variability
Figure 3 shows the Hurst coefficients at different
APHRODITE grid points. The H value above 0.5 im-
plies the existence of LTP. Figure 5 shows H > 0.5 in
most of the grids and thus the existence of LTP in
annual precipitation at most of the area in Balochistan.
This indicates cycles in precipitation time series of
Balochistan. Similar results were also observed for other
extreme precipitation time series. The autocorrelation
function also showed the presence of a significant cor-
relation among different time lags of data series. It
means that precipitation trends evaluated in earlier in-
vestigations in the region may be due to precipitation
fluctuation over time in many cases.

1 T ½C n ðH Þ−1 Z
logLðH Þ¼− logjC n ðH Þj− ð4Þ
2 2γ o

where |Cn(H)| is the determinant of the correlation matrix of

lag for a given H; T is the transposed vector of Z; and γo is the
variance of zi. For a given time series, Eq. (4) can be
solved by taking a distinct value of H and the maxi-
mum value of log L(H). Generally, it is solved for H
between 0.50 and 0.98 with a stepwise increase in the
value of 0.01. The significance of H is estimated from
the standard deviation (σH) and mean (μH) at H = 0.5.
If the value of H is significant, the biased variance of S,
V(S)H′ is estimated from auto-correlation function (ρ) as:

!
H0 2 ρj j−i j−ρji−l j−ρj j−kjþρji−kj
V ðS Þ ¼ ∑ :∑k< l sin−1 pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
i< j π ð2−2ρji−j jÞð2−2ρjk−l jÞ
ð5Þ

The unbiased estimate of S, V(S)H, is calculated using a

bias correction factor. The bias-corrected variance of S is then Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of Hurst coefficient in annual precipitation
used for the estimation of MMK test significance. time series at differing APRHRODITE grid points over Balochistan
1452 N. Khan et al.

4.2 Verification of APHRODITE precipitation which indicates a gradual increase in wet conditions in the
north. The precipitation increase in the north was significant
The gauge data at 11 locations were evaluated for homogene- at a 99% confidence level at most of the locations. No change
ity. The stations are distributed over the entire Balochistan in both annual and seasonal precipitation was observed in the
(Fig. 1). The DMS of all the stations showed no break in the northwest. The precipitation was also not noticed to change in
line. The STT at any of the stations was not found significant at the western coastal region for the annual and Kharif season.
a 95% confidence level, which suggests homogeneity in ob- However, an increase in Rabi precipitation at a 99% confi-
served precipitation data. dence interval was observed in the coastal region. When com-
The performance of APHRODITE precipitation was pared with MMK test trends, the annual precipitation was
assessed by comparing the observed precipitation with observed to increase at a lesser number of points located in
APHDROTE precipitation of the nearest grid point. the central part, Rabi precipitation only in the central north and
Obtained results (Table 2) showed RMSE in the range of southwest, and no change in Kharif precipitation at any loca-
5.27–25.88 mm, PBIAS between − 8.2 and − 48.5%, NSE tion. The results indicate that most of the annual and Kharif
in the range of 0.42 to 0.82, md between 0.66 and 0.82, and precipitation trends estimated by MK test are due to the natu-
R between 0.71 and 0.90. The results indicate good agreement ral variability of precipitation. This means the effect of global
of APHRODITE precipitation with in situ precipitation and warming on annual precipitation is still less visible and
therefore, APHRODITE data can be used for the analysis of completely not visible for Kharif precipitation. The influence
precipitation extremes. of global warming is more for Rabi season. However, the
number of points showing significant change at a 95% confi-
dence level was still found to reduce from 491 to 244 when
4.3 Changes in total precipitation
MMK instead of the MK test was used to estimate precipita-
tion trends in Rabi season. This indicates a large influence of
The geographical distribution of the trends in the total amount
autocorrelation in time series on the significance of annual and
of annual and seasonal precipitation is presented in Fig. 4. The
seasonal precipitation trends in Balochistan.
color ramp in the map shows the rate of change estimated
using the Sen’s slope estimator. The blue color represents a
4.4 Changes in extreme precipitation days (p99)
decrease, while the gradient towards yellow represents an in-
crease. The black positive sign represents a significant in-
Unlike Tot, the p99 showed a declining trend, but at a lower
crease at a 95% confidence level, while the red positive signs
rate, 0.1 to 0.84 days/decade (Fig. 5). The MK test showed a
indicate an increase at a 99% confidence level. Maps in the left
significant increase in annual p99 in most of the province. The
column in Fig. 4 show the geographical distribution of the
increase was also observed mostly at a 99% confidence level.
trends estimated using the MK test, while the maps in the right
The number of grids showing a significant trend was seen to
column show the trends obtained using MMK test.
reduce when analyzed using MMK test. The MMK trend sig-
The MK test showed a change in annual precipitation by −
nificance was also observed scattered in different regions. The
2.8–34.8 mm/decade during 1951–2015. The annual precipi-
p99 during Rabi showed an increasing trend in the central and
tation was found to increase in the north for all the seasons,
western regions while a decreasing trend in the eastern part.
Like annual p99, the p99 in Rabi season was found to reduce
Table 2 Statistical indices show the performance of APHRODITE and scattered when analyzed using MMK test. The Kharif p99
precipitation in Balochistan showed a decrease in most of the area except in the southwest.
Number Station name RMSE (mm) PBIAS % NSE md R
The decrease was only found at some locations in the north
and central region when the MMK test was used. Overall, the
1 Barkhan 13.33 − 25.4 0.72 0.79 0.90 results revealed an increasing trend in annual and Rabi p99
2 Bela 22.68 − 48.5 0.53 0.71 0.86 and a decreasing trend in Kharif p99 at many grids when LTP
3 Dalbandin 19.87 − 22.3 0.42 0.66 0.71 in time series was removed.
4 Jiwani 25.88 − 33.8 0.64 0.75 0.87
5 Kalat 13.29 − 15.6 0.65 0.77 0.84 4.5 Changes in severe precipitation days (p95)
6 Khuzdar 5.27 41.6 0.76 0.75 0.88
7 Nokundi 8.98 − 18.8 0.72 0.82 0.87 Compared to p99, a much higher increase in p95 was noticed
8 Ormara 8.31 − 8.2 0.68 0.79 0.83 (Fig. 6). An increase in p95 in all the seasons was seen in the
9 Panjgur 16.19 − 19.8 0.63 0.74 0.80 center and north by 8.2–20.8 days/decade. The annual change
10 Pasni 17.36 − 18.8 0.49 0.75 0.71 in p95 was noticed mostly in the north at a 99% confidence
11 Sibi 23.15 − 26.1 0.55 0.73 0.78 level by MK test at most of the points. The MMK test also
revealed an increase in p95 in most of the northern regions but
Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan with removal of the...
Fig. 4 Geographical distribution
of annual and seasonal
precipitation trends in
Balochistan. The blue represents a
decrease, and the yellow
represents an increase in
precipitation. The ± sign in black
or red represents an increase/
decrease at a 95% or 99% confi-
dence level, respectively
mostly at a 95% confidence level. During Rabi season, the
MK test showed an increase in p95 in the entire eastern part
of the study area. The increase at many of the grid points in the
west was also found significant by MMK test. The increase in
p95 during Kharif season was found less compared with the
annual and Rabi season. It was found to increase in the north-
east and central regions by the MK test, while the MMK test
revealed that the increase only in the central region was
significant.
4.6 Changes in the number of precipitation days
The geographical variability of the trends in PD for different
seasons is presented in Fig. 7. The changes in the PD were
noticed at a rate of − 8.6 to 14.2 days/decade for different
seasons. The MK test estimated a rise in PD in the north and
east and a decrease in the west for all seasons. However, the
MMK test revealed that the rising PD in the north and east are
mostly due to natural climate variability. Only the decrease in
1453
PD in the northwest was found significant by MMK test. This
means that there is a unidirectional decrease in PD in the
northwest due to global warming.
4.7 Changes in the number of continuous
precipitation days
Like PD, the CPD also showed an increase in the northeast
and a decrease in the southwest and northwest (Fig. 8). The
increase in CPD in the northeast was between 0.6 and 1.0 day/
decade, while the decrease in the southwest and northwest was
between − 0.5 and − 1.0 days/decade. Many of the increases
and decreases were found significant at a 99% confidence
level by the MK test. The MMK test showed that the rise in
CPD in the north for all the seasons were mostly due to cli-
mate fluctuations. The increases were found valid by MMK
test only at a few grids. The decrease in annual CPD in the
entire western region, Rabi CPD in the northwest, and Kharif
CPD in the southwest were also found significant by MMK
1454
Fig. 5 Distribution of trends in
the annual and seasonal number
of extreme precipitation days in
Balochistan. The blue represents a
decrease and the yellow
represents an increase in extreme
precipitation. The ± sign in black
or red represents an increase/
decrease at a 95% or 99% confi-
dence level, respectively
test. The significant level was found 99% at many grid points.
The results indicate that global warming has caused a decrease
in CPD in the western part of Balochistan.
4.8 Changes in number of continuous dry days
The spatial variations in CDD trend are presented in Fig. 9.
The changes in the CDD were found between − 6.3 and 4.1
days/decade. A decreasing trend in annual CDD was noticed
in the north and the central regions. The decreases were found
significant by MMK test at most of the locations which means
a unidirectional decrease in CDD in the regions. During Rabi,
the CDD was noticed to decrease in the northeast and increase
in the northwest by MK test. However, only the decreases in
the northeast were found significant by MMK test. The CDD
during Kharif was found to decrease over a large part of the
country in the east by both the tests. In general, the results
revealed a monotonic decrease in CDD in all the seasons in
the east, particularly in the northeast of the country.
N. Khan et al.
4.9 Changes in 1-day maximum precipitation
The analysis of 1MxD is important to understand the possible
changes in the frequency of flash floods. Figure 10 presents
the trend in 1MxD in Balochistan. The 1MxD showed a rise
by 6.6 to 35 mm/decade for all the seasons. The increase in
annual 1MxD was found for the entire country by MK test,
while the MMK test revealed the increases were significant
only in the central and central-north regions after the removal
of LPT in time series. During Rabi season, the MK test
showed an increase in 1MxD for the entire country, but the
MMK test revealed that the increases were significant only in
the southern coastal area and in the central and central-north
parts. Both MK and MMK tests showed an increase in Kharif
1MxD in most of the eastern part of the country. However, a
large drop in the count of significant grid points was noticed
when the MMK test instead of MK test was used. The results
revealed a unidirectional increase in 1MxD only at a few lo-
cations in the north and central parts of Balochistan.
Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan with removal of the... 1455

Fig. 6 Geographical distribution

of the changes in the number of
annual and seasonal severe
precipitation days over
Balochistan. The blue represents a
decrease and the yellow
represents an increase in severe
precipitation. The ± sign in black
or red represents an increase/
decrease at a 95% or 99% confi-
dence level, respectively

4.10 Comparison of trends estimated by MK and MMK
tests
The number of grids at which the MK and MMK test detected
a significant trend in different precipitation indices is present-
ed in Table 3. The number of significant positive trends is
shown outside the parentheses and the negative trends inside
the parentheses in the table. For example, p99 showed a sig-
nificant increase in 442 grid points and a decrease at 19 grid
points at a 95% confidence level. The annual trends revealed a
higher reduction of the positive trend compared with the neg-
ative trend when MMK test instead of MK test was used. For
example, an increase in annual precipitation at a 95% confi-
dence level was found to reduce from 353 to 6 grid points
when the MMK test was used. The reduction in the positive
trend was found between 38.5 and 100% for a 95% confi-
dence level and 63.4 to 100 for a 99% confidence level when
MMK rather than MK test was used. A decrease in the number
of significant grid points was found much lesser for negative
trends. The reduction in the number of grid points showing a
negative trend was observed between 25.5 and 87% at a 95%
confidence level and 52.7% and 95.4% at a 99% confidence
level when MMK instead of MK test was used.
5 Discussion
Only a few investigations have been conducted in Pakistan for
the evaluation of trends in precipitation and precipitation ex-
tremes (Ahmed et al. 2017; Ullah et al. 2018a). The results
acquired in this study using MK test showed similar results
obtained in earlier studies. It has been observed that annual
precipitation in Balochistan is not changing significantly
when climate fluctuations were removed. The findings of the
present study correspond to Ahmed et al. (2017) and Ullah
et al. (2018a). However, it was different from the findings of
the study of Hanif et al. (2013), which showed a significant
change in the annual precipitation. The precipitation during
1456
Fig. 7 Geographical variations in
the trends in total precipitation
days in Balochistan. The blue
represents a decrease, and the
yellow represents an increase in
the number of precipitation days.
The ± sign in black or red
represents an increase/decrease at
a 95% or 99% confidence level,
respectively
the summer or monsoon season was noticed to increase in
most parts of Pakistan (Iqbal et al. 2019). However, no signif-
icant change was noticed in Kharif (monsoon) precipitation in
this study when MMK test was employed. The p99 and p99
were on the rise in almost all parts of Pakistan (Alexander
et al. 2006; Iqbal and Athar 2018), which was also found in
this study. Furthermore, the current study found a decreasing
trend in both p99 and p95 in some parts of the study area
during Kharif. An increasing trend in PD and CPD was ob-
served which also collaborates with the previous studies
(Ahmed et al. 2017; Iqbal and Athar 2018; Iqbal et al. 2019;
Westra et al. 2013). The overall analysis of the trends obtained
using MK and MMK tests revealed a large reduction in the
number of grids showing significant trends. The decrease was
more in the number of grids showing rising trend than the
grids showing a decreasing trend. The decrease in the count
of significant grids was observed between 25 and 100% which
indicates that trends in an arid region like Balochistan is high-
ly influenced by climate variability compared with other
N. Khan et al.
regions of the globe (Ahmed et al. 2017; Filahi et al. 2016;
Iqbal et al. 2019; Jeong Yik et al. 2011; Lacombe et al. 2012;
Mayowa et al. 2015; Payab and Türker 2018; Salman et al.
2017b).
The overestimation of the trend in MK test is due to the
LTP infested in data series (Fathian et al. 2015; Khan et al.
2019b; Khan et al. 2019d; Kumar et al. 2009; Shahid et al.
2014). The time series of most of the precipitation extremes in
Balochistan are affected by LTP due to the multiscale decadal
variability of climate. The trends due to decadal variability
have been misinterpreted as unidirectional trends in the previ-
ous studies. The current study suggests that the effect of this
variability is more on the increasing trend compared with the
decreasing trend. Seager et al. (2010) assessed the hydro-
climatic trends in South America to distinguish the trends
due to anthropogenic effect and natural variability. They
found that most of the wetter trends are influence by the
natural variability of climate. This multiscale decadal
variability is prominent in the rainfall time series of the
Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan with removal of the...
Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of the
changes in continuous
precipitation days in Balochistan.
The blue represents a decrease,
and the yellow represents an
increase in the number of
continuous precipitation days.
The ± sign in black or red
represents an increase/decrease at
a 95% or 99% confidence level,
respectively
Indian monsoon dominated region. Goswami et al. (2016)
assessed the three proxies of the monsoon precipitation for
the last 500 years and reported that variability in rainfall
occurs between 50 to 80 years. Therefore, the results in this
study showed a huge reduction in the count of grids showing a
significant change in extremes in the north where precipitation
is influenced by Indian monsoon. Goswami et al. (2016) also
reported that this variability coincides with some large scale
ocean-atmospheric phenomena such as El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) which also have an oscillation period be-
tween 50 and 80 years. Ummenhofer et al. (2011) found var-
iability in the Indian Ocean (IO) is an important player in
regulating the ENSO-driven precipitation in multidecadal
timescales. The study by Ummenhofer et al. (2017) reported
IO subsurface heat content has distinct multidecadal varia-
tions. The trends in precipitation extremes during Rabi season
which coincides with the winter season in Pakistan may be
due to the shift in the zonal wind over the area at 200-mb
(Iqbal et al. 2019; Malik et al. 2012). Azmat (2004) reported
1457
that sea surface temperature is highly associated with the
changes in the winter precipitation pattern over Pakistan.
Furthermore, Afzal et al. (2013) found a good correlation be-
tween negative ENSO and precipitation over Pakistan. The
decadal variability of sea parameters may be a cause of the
overestimation of trends in Rabi precipitation when analyzed
using the MK test.
The present study revealed that MMK can address the
trends that occurred due to natural climate fluctuation and thus
able to find the unidirectional trend in hydro-climatic time
series due to global warming. The study also revealed that
the trends obtained using MK test in the previous studies were
mainly due to climate fluctuation which will not persist. The
MMK test revealed a decrease in PD and CPD over a large
area which indicates that dry condition has become much
more prominent in recent years in Balochistan. This finding
also corresponds to the results of the previous studies (Ahmed
et al. 2016; Durrani et al. 2018; Khan et al. 2020a; Shafiq and
Kakar 2007). The most interesting finding of the present study
1458
Fig. 9 Maps showing the changes
in the annual and seasonal
number of continuous dry days in
Balochistan. The blue represents a
decrease, and the yellow
represents an increase in the
number of continuous dry days.
The ± sign in black or red
represents an increase/decrease at
a 95% or 99% confidence level,
respectively
is that the significance of increasing trends is more influenced
by the natural variability of climate compared with decreasing
trends.
Long dry spells are the major cause of water scarcity and
frequent damage to agriculture in the region. The situation has
been deteriorated in recent years due to climate change (Khan
et al. 2020a). The decrease in PD and CPD would not only
increase the occurrence of drought but also may affect crop
yield and water scarcity in the region (Zahid and Iqbal 2015).
For a country where more than 43% of the labor force and
21% of the GDP depend on agriculture, the changes in pre-
cipitation extremes can have severe implications in society
and people’s livelihood.
6 Conclusion
A large inconsistency has been found between the signifi-
cance of MK and MMK trends in the arid region of
N. Khan et al.
Pakistan. The study showed no significant change in the total
precipitation after the exclusion of the influence of precipita-
tion fluctuations. However, most of the indices showed rises
in precipitation extremes in the north, northeast, and east of
Balochistan. The number of extreme and severe precipitation
days (p99 and p95) showed a generally increasing trend. The
PD and CPD showed a declination over a large region in the
northwest and the west. The CDD showed a decrease in all
over the region expect in the west. Besides, the annual and
Rabi 1MxD was found to increase over a large area. The
analysis revealed that the trends in all the precipitation ex-
tremes were overestimated by 25 to 100% due to autocorrela-
tion in climate time series. Analysis of results revealed that the
overestimation of hydro-climatic trends in the arid region is
relatively more compared with other climatic regions. Only
APHRODITE precipitation was used in this study for the as-
sessment of spatiotemporal trends in precipitation extremes.
In the future, the study can be repeated with other gridded
climate data to understand the uncertainty in trends in
Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan with removal of the... 1459

Fig. 10 Changes in the annual

and seasonal amount of 1-day
maximum precipitation in
Balochistan. The blue represents a
decrease, and the yellow repre-
sents an increase in the amount of
1-day maximum precipitation.
The ± sign in black or red repre-
sents an increase/decrease at a
95% or 99% confidence level,
respectively

Table 3 The number of grid

points out of a total of 571 grid Tot p99 p95 PD CPD CDD Mx1D
points showed a significant trend
Annual 95 MK 353 (−) 442 (19) 239 (1) 189 (118) 13 (212) − 286 489 (−)
MMK 6 (−) 119 (9) 80 (−) 4 (62) 8 (132) − 145 167 (−)
99 MK 281 (−) 367 (4) 166 (1) 156 (63) 1 (157) − 186 425 (−)
MMK − (−) 38 (1) 11 (−) − 11 − 70 − 47 104 (−)
Rabi 95 MK 491 (−) 279 (201) 346 (−) 176 (105) 63 (148) 105 (132) 526 (−)
MMK 244 (−) 74 (182) 87 (−) 24 (41) 21 (95) 24 (59) 268 (−)
99 MK 411 (−) 244 (26) 305 (−) 108 (87) 25 (93) 83 (55) 459 (−)
MMK 95 (−) 23 (12) 23(−) 2(4) −(−) 2 (6) 168 (−)
Kharif 95 MK 200 (−) 56 (274) 82 (26) 162 (47) 12 (67) 2 (315) 289 (−)
MMK − (−) 53 (164) 31 (13) 44 (35) 3 (37) − 169 15 (−)
99 MK 74 (−) 12 (54) 18 (7) 134 (12) 3 (36) − 228 166 (−)
MMK − (−) 5 (18) 2 (−) 6(4) −(−) − 59 1 (−)

The number of grids showed increasing and decreasing trend are represented in outside and inside the parenthesis
respectively
1460
precipitation extremes. The changes in precipitation extremes
can be correlated with topography and land use of the study
area to understand their influences.
Acknowledgments We are grateful to the Pakistan Meteorological
Department (PMD) for providing daily observed precipitation data of
Balochistan. We are also grateful to the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, USA, for providing free access
of Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration
Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) daily gridded precipitation dataset
through their web portal.
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