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DOI 10.

1007/s11204-020-09631-w
Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering, Vol. 57, No. 1, March, 2020 (Russian Original No. 1, January-February, 2020)

SOIL MECHANICS

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING STABILITY OF CUT AND FILL


MULTISTAGE SLOPE BASED ON IMPROVED GREY INCIDENCE MODEL

UDC 624.131.537
Shuai-hua Ye* and An-ping Huang
Department of Civil Engineering, Key Laboratory of Disaster Mitigation in Civil
Engineering of Gansu Province, Testing Center of Geotechnical Engineering and
Foundation, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, China,
*Corresponding author Email: yeshuaihua@163.com.

There are many factors affecting the stability of cut and fill multistage slopes, and these
factors exert different degrees of influence on slope stability. The grey incidence analysis
method can be used to evaluate the sensitivity of these factors. To overcome the shortcom-
ings of the grey incidence analysis model used in previous sensitivity analysis studies on
the factors influencing slope stability, this study improved the dimensionless processing
method and resolution coefficient value. Considering that the importance of each influenc-
ing factor is different, the vector resemblance degree theory was applied to determine the
weight of each influencing factor. Finally, based on an actual cut and fill multistage slope,
the sensitivity of the factors affecting stability was analyzed according to the improved grey
incidence analysis theory. The results revealed that the unloading platform width, cohesion
force, and internal friction angle are most sensitive to the stability of the cut and fill mul-
tistage slope. The step height, slope width, and slope height are slightly sensitive, while the
soil unit weight, seismic peak acceleration, and slope ratio are the least sensitive.

Introduction
Cut and fill multistage slope construction is diverse and complex, and various factors affect the
slope stability [1-3] in different ways. It is necessary to analyze the sensitivity of each factor and to eval-
uate the slope stability and to make the slope design safer, more economical, and more reasonable [4].
Methods of evaluating the sensitivity of factors affecting the slope stability mainly include artificial
neural network analysis [5-8], grey incidence analysis [9-11], orthogonal design [12], uniform design [13,
14], fuzzy comprehensive evaluation [15, 16], analytic hierarchy [17], and reliability analysis [18, 19].
Grey system theory was first proposed by Julong in the early 1980s [20, 21]. Grey incidence
analysis is a major branch of grey system theory for situations wherein data are limited, and can accu-
rately analyze the incidence between various variables and reference variables to determine the primary
influencing factors [22]. Grey incidence theory is widely used in many fields [23-26], and the sensitiv-
ity analysis of the factors affecting slope stability can also be carried out using grey incidence analysis.
Many studies have used grey incidence theory to analyze slope stability [11, 17, 27, 28]. Jiang et
al. [29] used grey incidence theory to predict slope stability, and their calculation results were consistent
with the actual situation. Traditional grey incidence analysis theory can quantitatively study the complex
interactions and influences among multiple factors within a system and quantify the development trend of
each factor, which is more accurate than using statistical methods [30]. However, owing to the adoption
of the equal weight method, the actual situation wherein the importance of each parameter is different has

Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 1, p. 7, January-February, 2020.


©
8
0038-0741/20/5607-0008 2020 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
3
B

1
a 2
H

i
b
α
Fig. 1. Schematic diagram of cut and fill multistage slope cross-section:
1) excavation steps, 2) natural slope line, 3) slope.

not been considered, and therefore the problem of inaccurate incidence degree, which is caused by the
fact that the comparison sequence curves have the same shape but different positions, has remained unre-
solved [22]. Therefore, to make the sensitivity analysis of factors influencing slope stability more practi-
cal, the existing grey incidence analysis method must be improved accordingly.
To date, a few studies have been conducted on the sensitivity of factors affecting the stability of
cut and fill multistage loess slopes [4, 11, 31], and fewer studies have investigated the sensitivity of cut
and fill multistage loess slope stability with regard to earthquake action. Therefore, this study established
an improved grey incidence analysis model based on vector resemblance degree theory. The sensitivity of
factors influencing the stability of cut and fill multistage slopes under earthquake action was analyzed
based on the Outer Ring Road cut and fill multistage slope project in Dongjiang New District, Wudu Dis-
trict, Longnan City, China. Determining the influence degree of each factor on the slope stability can pro-
vide insights for preventing and controlling slope instability and optimizing the design of such slopes.

Main Factors Influencing Cut and Fill Multistage Slope Stability


Factors affecting the stability of cut and fill multistage slopes can be categorized into internal and
external. Internal factors mainly include: physical and mechanical parameters of the filler (the soil unit
weight γ, cohesive force c, internal friction angle ϕ, moisture content ω); geometric shape of the filling
area (the slope height H and width B, slope rate i, unloading platform width a, original slope excavation
step height b). External factors mainly include the following: natural factors (such as earthquake action
[32] and rainfall infiltration [33-34]); human factors (support structure, [35-36], damages, and so on).
According to the study by Li et al. [37-38] on the physical and mechanical characteristics and
water sensitivity characteristics of the Malan loess in Lanzhou, the cohesive force c and internal friction
angle ϕ are closely related to its water content. Rainfall infiltration increases the soil moisture content
and decreases the shear strength parameters. The schematic diagram of the cut and fill multistage slope
cross-section is shown in Fig. 1.

Improved Grey Incidence Analysis m odel


The reference sequence X consists of factors affecting the stability of cut and fill multistage
slopes. The slope stability coefficient Fs corresponding to the change of the influencing factor values
constitutes the comparison sequence Y. The respective matrix forms are as follows:
⎡ x11 x12 … x1n ⎤ ⎫
⎢x x22 … x2 n ⎥ ⎪
X = ⎢ 21 ⎥⎪
⎢     ⎥⎪
⎢⎣ xm1 xm 2 … xmn ⎥⎪
⎦ ,
⎬ (1)
⎡ y11 y12 … y1n ⎤ ⎪
⎢y y22 … y2 n ⎥ ⎪
Y = ⎢ 21 ⎥
⎢     ⎥⎪
⎣⎢ ym1 ym 2 … ymn ⎦⎥ ⎭⎪

9
where x ij (i = 1, 2,..., m; j = 1, 2,..., n) is the jth parameter value of the ith influencing factor; y ij
(i = 1, 2,..., m; j = 1, 2,..., n) is the corresponding slope stability coefficient.
Because the physical meaning and dimension of each sequence factor are different, the dimen-
sionless methods (the initial value, mean value, interval relative value, and normalization) must be adopt-
ed to process the data of each factor, such that these values can be converted into a unified expression.
Some factors are positively correlated with the slope stability coefficient, while others are nega-
tively correlated. Obviously, the positive and negative impact factors have opposite effects on slope sta-
bility. However, the traditional grey incidence analysis method ignores the influence of this opposition,
and considers all influencing factors as positively correlated. Therefore, it is necessary to use two dif-
ferent calculation methods to perform dimensionless processing on the positively correlated and nega-
tively correlated parameters, respectively:
when xij is a positively correlated parameter, then
xij − min xi

xij' = ⎪
max xi − min xi ⎪
⎬; (2)
yij − min yi ⎪
yij =
'
max yi − min yi ⎪⎭
when xij is a negative correlation parameter, then
max xi − xij⎫
xij' = ⎪
max xi − min xi ⎪
⎬, (3)
max yi − yij ⎪
yij' =
max yi − min yi ⎪⎭
where xi is the ith influence factor parameter value, and yi is the corresponding slope stability coefficient.
The equation for calculating each grey correlation coefficient in the correlation coefficient matrix
Z is expressed as follows:
min min xij' − yij' + λ max max xij' − yij'
i j i j
zij = ; (4)
xij' − yij' + λ max max xij' − yij'
i j

Δ max = max max xij − yij . (5)


i j

As can be seen from the position of the resolution coefficient λ in Eq. (4), λ is the weight coef-
ficient of Δmax; its size determines the degree of influence of Δmax on zij, and reflects the system integri-
ty of the grey incidence degree of association. This effect of λ further affects the size of the distribution
interval of the incidence degree, which in turn affects the correlation analysis results. In previous slope
stability analysis, studies using the grey relational analysis model, λ was typically considered as 0.5 [4,
11]. In fact, λ should be dynamically estimated according to the specific situation; therefore, the inci-
dence degree better reflects the integrity of the system and has a certain anti-interference effect [39].
Hence, the dynamic resolution coefficient determination principle can be used to determine the resolu-
tion coefficient λ. The specific method can be described as follows:
1 m n '
Δ av = ∑ ∑ xij − yij ;
'
(6)
mn i =1 j =1
Δ
X Δ = av . (7)
Δ max
Then the value range of λ can be expressed as XΔ < λ < 2XΔ and should satisfy the following
conditions:
⎧ X Δ ≤ λ ≤ 1.5 X Δ , X Δ ≤ 1 / 3,
⎨ (8)
⎩1.5 X Δ  λ ≤ 2 X Δ , X Δ ≥ 1 / 3.
10
As follows from Eq. (8), the influence of Δmax can be effectively suppressed by the fluctuations
of Δmax and λ to avoid abnormal sequence factor values from dominating the entire system incidence
degree and ensure that the obtained incidence degree more fully reflects the system integrity.
Because each factor affecting the stability of the cut and fill multistage slope has different
importance, it is necessary to assign weights to these factors. The vector resemblance degree method is
an objective weighting method, which ensures the absolute objectivity of the weight, while avoiding the
interference of subjective factors perceived by humans through the quantitative analysis of actual data
[40]. Vector resemblance degree theory was first proposed by Jiao and Yang [41] and later used by Xie
et al. [42] for lake water eutrophication assessment. However, the vector resemblance degree method has
not been used in the sensitivity evaluation of factors affecting slope stability.
Because an m  n matrix can be expressed as n-dimensional column vectors, the dimensionless pro-
cessed reference sequence matrix X and comparison sequence matrix Y obtained using Eqs. (1) to (3) can
be respectively denoted as a reference vector X = (X1, X2, ..., Xn) and comparison vector Y = (Y1, Y2, ..., Yn).
Then the vector resemblance degree γ of vectors X and Y is the product of the vector norm resemblance
degree α and vector direction resemblance degree β, as follows:
γ = αβ, (9)

⎧ X − Y
⎪1 − , Y ≤2 X (10)
where α=⎨ X ;

⎩ 0, Y  2 X
θ
β =1− , (11)
90°
[XY ] , and
where X = x12 + x22 +  + x n2 , Y = y12 + y22 +  + y n2 , θ = cos −1
X Y
[XY ]= x1y1 + x 2 y2 +  + x ny n.

The vector resemblance degree γi (1 < i < m) of X and Y corresponding to each influencing fac-
tor is calculated, and the vector resemblance degree of each influencing factor is normalized. The weight
ωi is obtained as follows:
γ i − min γ
ωi = . (12)
max γ − min γ

From Eqs. (4) and (12), the grey incidence degree γ i' can be calculated with consideration to
weight, as follows:
1 n
γ i' = ∑ ω i zij . (13)
n j =1
Engineering Case Analysis
This study considered the cut and fill loess multistage slope project in the Outer Ring Road of
Dongjiang New District, Wudu District, Longnan City, China, and analyzed the sensitivity of the factors
affecting the stability of the cut and fill multistage slope. In this section, the height H of the cut and fill
slope is approximately 40 m, the width B of the filled area is 20 m, and the slope ratio i is 1:1. The slope
is 10 m high at each stage, and the unloading platform width w between the two stages is 2 m. The orig-
inal slope excavation step height b is 2 m. The seismic precautionary intensity of Wudu District is 8°,
and the design basic seismic acceleration a is 0.2g. The unit weight γ of the fill soil is 17.5 kN/m3, the
cohesion force c is 20 kPa, and the internal friction angle ϕ is 22°.
The actual engineering parameters of the slope (γ, c, ϕ, H, B, i, w, b, and a) were considered as
reference values. The dynamic response model of the cut and fill multistage slope under earthquake action
was established using the QUAKE/W module in the finite element analysis software GeoStudio-2012.

11
0.901

Fig. 2. Slope stability coefficient calculation result model.

Fs a Fs b Fs c d
Fs

γ, kN/m3 c, kPa ϕo H, m

Fs Fs Fs Fs
e Fs f g h i

B, m i w, m b, m ag
Fig. 3. Relationship between slope stability and influencing factors: a) unit weight; b) cohesive force;
c) internal friction angle; d) slope height; e) slope width; f) slope ratio; g) unloading platform
width; h) step height; (i) seismic peak acceleration.

Under the condition of keeping other parameters unchanged, six different values were selected for each
influencing factor parameter. The dynamic analysis model in the QUAKE/W module corresponding to each
parameter value is coupled with slope stability analysis model in the SLOPE/W module to obtain the cor-
responding slope stability coefficient Fs. The calculation result model is shown in Fig. 2.
The relationship between the parameter values of each influencing factor and the slope stability
coefficient is shown in Fig. 3. As can be seen, each influencing factor is closely related to the slope sta-
bility. As the cohesion force, internal friction angle, slope width, unloading platform width, and step
height increase, the slope stability coefficient also increases. However, as the unit weight, slope height,
slope ratio, and seismic peak acceleration increase, the slope stability coefficient decreases. This indi-
cates that the cohesive force, internal friction angle, slope width, unloading platform width, and step
height are positively correlated parameters, while the unit weight, slope height, slope ratio, and seismic
peak acceleration are negatively correlated parameters.
As can also be seen in Fig. 3, without the support structure, the obtained slope stability coeffi-
cient is low and the slope is in an unstable state. In the actual state, the slope is stable, which indicates
that the application of the supporting structure can significantly improve the stability of the slope.
The parameter values of each influencing factor were selected as the reference sequence matrix
X, and the corresponding stability coefficient values were considered as the comparison sequence matrix
Y, as follows:

12
⎡ 17.5 19.0 20.5 22.0 23.5 25.0 ⎤
⎢ 20.5 26.0 31.5 37.0 42.5 48.0 ⎥
⎢ 19 23 27 31 35 39 ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ 30 40 50 60 70 80 ⎥
X = (γ , c, ϕ , H , B, i, w, b, a ) = ⎢ 10
T
20 30 40 50 60 ⎥ ;
⎢1:1.6 1:1.4 1:1.2 1:1.0 1: 0.8 1: 0.6 ⎥
⎢ 0 1 2 3 4 5 ⎥⎥

⎢ 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 ⎥
⎢⎣ 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 ⎦⎥
⎡0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 ⎤
⎢0.80 0.83 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.93 ⎥
⎢0.74 0.82 0.88 0.95 1.00 1.01 ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢0.97 0.82 0.76 0.72 0.65 0.61 ⎥
Y = ⎢0.74 0.80 0.83 0.83 0.85 0.86 ⎥ .
⎢ 0.91 0.88 0.87 0.81 0.74 0.68 ⎥
⎢0.74 0. 77 0.80 0.83 0.87 0.92 ⎥⎥

⎢0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.81 ⎥
⎢⎣0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.76 ⎥⎦

According to the analysis results, the positively and negatively correlated parameters are pro-
cessed in a dimensionless manner according to Eqs. (2) and (3), respectively. The processed reference
sequence matrix X and comparison sequence matrix Y are obtained as follows:
⎡1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 ⎤ ⎡0.00 0.18 0.38 0.62 0.84 1.00 ⎤
⎢0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 ⎥ ⎢0.00 0.25 0.50 0.67 0.83 1.00 ⎥
⎢0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 ⎥ ⎢0.00 0.30 0.53 0.78 0.98 1.00 ⎥
⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥
⎢1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 ⎥ ⎢0.00 0.42 0.58 0.70 0.90 1.00 ⎥
X = ⎢0.00
'
0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 ⎥ ; Y = ⎢0.00 0.53
'
0.75 0.78 0.93 1.00 ⎥ .
⎢1.00 0.91 0.80 0.64 0.40 0.00 ⎥ ⎢0.00 0.10 0.15 0.44 0.75 1.00 ⎥
⎢0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 ⎥⎥ ⎢0.00 0.2 0 0.36 0.52 0.75 1.00 ⎥⎥
⎢ ⎢
⎢0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 ⎥ ⎢0.00 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.55 1.00 ⎥
⎢⎣1.00 0 .88 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 ⎥⎦ ⎢⎣0.00 0.19 0.36 0.54 0.70 1.00 ⎥⎦

According to Eqs. (6) to (8), λ = 0.48, by substituting it into Eq. (4), the correlation coefficient
matrix Z can be obtained as follows:
⎡ 0.33 0.44 0.69 0.69 0.43 0.33 ⎤
⎢1.00 0.91 0.83 0.87 0.94 1.00 ⎥
⎢1.00 0.83 0.79 0.73 0.73 1.00 ⎥
⎢ ⎥
⎢ 0.33 0.56 0.96 0.61 0.41 0.33 ⎥
Z = ⎢1.00 0.59 0.58 0.73 0.79 1.00 ⎥ .
⎢0.32 0.37 0.42 0.71 0.58 0.33 ⎥
⎢1.00 1.00 0.92 0.86 0.91 1.00 ⎥⎥

⎢1.00 0.91 0.76 0.66 0.66 1.00 ⎥
⎣⎢ 0.33 0. 41 0.56 0.92 0.52 0.33 ⎦⎥

The vector resemblance degrees γ, α, and β between X and Y are obtained from Eqs. (9), (10), and
(11), respectively. The weight of each influencing factor is obtained by normalizing γ using Eq. (12):
weight of γ = 0.037, c = 0.901, ϕ = 0.684, H = 0.067, B = 0.499, i = 0.001, w = 0.947, b = 0.607, a = 0.034.
The calculation results for the vector resemblance degrees are presented in Table 1.
The improved grey incidence degree (the third type) considering the weight is obtained from the
correlation coefficient matrix Z and Eq. (14). Additionally, for comparative analysis, the traditional grey
correlation degree (the first type of incidence degree) obtained by the traditional grey incidence model

13
TABLE 1
Norm resem- Calculation Direction resem- Calculation Vector resem- Calculation
blance degree blance degree blance degree
α1 0.986 β1 0.230 γ1 0.227
α2 0.945 β2 0.955 γ2 0.902
α3 0.844 β3 0.922 γ3 0.778
α4 0.871 β4 0.304 γ4 0.264
α5 0.772 β5 0.842 γ5 0.650
α6 0.766 β6 0.220 γ6 0.169
α7 0.954 β7 0.966 γ7 0.922
α8 0.831 β8 0.864 γ8 0.718
α9 0.860 β9 0.255 γ9 0.219

Fig. 4. Grey incidence degree calculation process.

and the improved grey correlation degree (the second type), which do not consider the weights of the
respective influencing factors, are respectively calculated. The specific calculation flow for each of the
three grey incidence degree types are shown in Fig. 4. The calculation results for the three grey inci-
dence degree types are presented in Fig. 5.
The order of the grey incidence degrees of the factors influencing the stability of the cut and
fill multistage slope was obtained using the first and second grey incidence degree calculation meth-
ods, respectively, and the results were the same, as follows: unloading platform width > cohesive
force > internal friction angle > step height>slope width > slope height > seismic peak acceleration
> unit weight > slope ratio. This indicates that, if the weights of the influencing factors are not con-

14
γ c ϕ H B i w b a

Fig. 5. Comparison of three grey incidence degrees.

sidered, only the dimensionless processing method and the value method of the resolution coefficient
of the traditional grey incidence analysis model are improved, which has little influence on the cal-
culation results.
The order of the incidence degree of the factors influencing the cut and fill multistage slope sta-
bility obtained by the improved grey incidence analysis model in this study is essentially consistent with
the two previous calculation results. However, considering the influence of the weights, the influence of
the soil unit weight on the stability of the cut and fill multistage slope is more sensitive than the seis-
mic peak acceleration, which is contrary to the other two calculations. This indicates that each factor
affecting the stability of the cut and fill multistage slope has different importance; therefore, it is nec-
essary to calculate the index weight of each factor.
The results obtained from the improved grey incidence analysis model considering the
weight indicate that the three most sensitive factors affecting the stability of the cut and fill mul-
tistage slope are the unloading platform width, cohesive force, and internal friction angle, fol-
lowed by the step height, slope width, and slope height. However, the influence of the unit
weight, seismic peak acceleration, and slope ratio on slope stability is less than that of other fac-
tors. Therefore, in slope stability evaluation and design, the soil strength parameters should be
carefully selected according to the actual situation, and the size of the slope should be optimized.
The seismic action has little influence on the stability of the cut and fill multistage slope. How-
ever, China is located between two major seismic zones (the circum-Pacific seismic belt and the
Mediterranean seismic zone). Therefore, because China is an earthquake-prone country, it is nec-
essary to consider the influence of seismic action on cut and fill multistage slope engineering
projects.
As can be seen in Fig. 4, the overall change trend of the grey correlation degrees obtained by the
three calculation methods is essentially the same. However, the distance between the values obtained by
the improved grey incidence degree analysis model considering the weight is larger; therefore, the
degree of importance between different influencing factors has a good degree of differentiation. The tra-
ditional grey incidence analysis model artificially determines the resolution coefficient and subjectively
assumes that the weight of each factor is equal. Compared with the traditional grey incidence analysis
model, the improved grey incidence analysis model can adaptively calculate the weight of each factor
based on experimental data to reduce the interference of decision making. Therefore, the results
obtained by the improved grey relational analysis model are more accurate and more adaptable to vari-
ous complex situations.

15
Conclusions
1. The factors affecting the stability of the cut and fill multistage slope were categorized into
several levels, and nine main factors affecting the stability of the cut and fill multistage slope were
determined as follows: unit weight, cohesive force, internal friction angle, slope height, slope width,
slope ratio, unloading platform width, step height, and seismic peak acceleration.
2. The dimensionless processing method for the matrix sequence factors and the value method of
the resolution coefficient in the grey incidence analysis model were improved. Vector resemblance
degree theory was applied to calculate the weight of each influencing factor. Thus, the sensitivity eval-
uation results obtained for the various influencing factors were more realistic.
3. The order of importance of the factors influencing the cut and fill multistage slope stability
from large to small is as follows: unloading platform width, cohesive force, internal friction angle, step
height, slope width, slope height, unit weight, seismic peak acceleration, and slope ratio. Therefore, in
the design and stability analysis of cut and fill multistage slopes, the physical and mechanical parame-
ters of the filler and the geometry of the slope should be reasonably selected, and the influence of seis-
mic action should also be considered.

Acknowledgments
This study was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
(Grant No. 51768040).
We thank Liwen Bianji, Edanz Editing China (www.liwenbianji.cn/ac), for editing the English
text of a draft of this manuscript.

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