Chapter 4

Climate Change

UNFCCC-United Nations Framework Convention

on climate Joy

- UNFCCC defines climate change as a change in climate due to human activities that alters
the composition of the global atmosphere Variably observed ores comparable time period,
Global warming is causing climate patterns to change.

Causes of Climate Change.

- Geological records back in million years ago Shows that climate changed due to a lot of natural
reasons like changes in the sun, volcanoes earth’s orbit and Co2 levels.

- But there is good evidence that now the climate change is mainly due to human Co2 emission

Changes in the Sun energy

- a Change in Sun itself can effect on the amount or intensity of solar energy that reaches earth and
so can cause a climate change.

-solar output has been lower since mid-20 century, and therefore doesn't explain the worming of the
earth. (Global warming)
Changes in Earth's reflectivity:

Darker objects absorb heat (Ocean, forestt, soil) Lighter objects or surfaces reflect (ice, snow, cloud)

Human changing lands contributes to the change in

Earth’s Reflectivity (deforestation organization desertification)

Volcanism:

Eruption that injects 0.1 million tonnes of so2

Into atmosphere can cause climate changes for more than one year (They occur several times in a
year)

So2 and Sulphur aerosols can absorb or scatter Solar radiations and can create a global layer of
sulphur acid Haze; blocking the radiation transmission and cause cooling

Plate tectonics

- the motion 9 tectonic plates on land and ocean are generating topography, which is affecting the
global and local climate and atmosphere ocean circulation.

- position of continents determine the circulation of the oceans (location of oceans are important in
controlling the transfer of moisture and heat).

Anthropogenic factors:

- Anthropogeny – pollution due to human activity.

- Green house effect: a process though which earth absorb radiations end emits infrared rays to
warm up its lower atmosphere and surface.

- Gasses like Carbon dioxide, methane, ozone and water vapors are called green house gases

- These gasses have a mean worming effect of about 15 Degree Celsius (59F) or else earth’s average
temperature would be below the freezing temperature of water.

- Human activities has increase the amount of these gasses (CO2 a Methane CH2 Concentration has
increased by 36% and 14 % respectively).

Evidence of climatic change:

1. Arctic sea ice loss: Over the last several decades a decline in extend and thickness of the ice
2. Vegetation: Change in type a distribution of vegetation. Changes in climate has resulted in
an increase in precipitation and warmth. Improved plant growth and more Co2.
3. Pollen Analysis: By analyzing different species of plants under various climate conditions
through palynology (a study of contemporary and fossils as well as pollens)
4. Dendroclimatology: It is an analysis of tree sing growth thick and wide rings a healthy tree
with good condition whereas thin and narrow indicates the unfavorable environments.
5. Ice Cores: Analysis of ice drilled from the core or Antarctic Ocean can help determine the link
between the temperature and global sea level. The water bubbles containing Co2 can tell
the variation of the atmosphere from a distant path
6. Animals: Remains of beetles in the fresh water and land sediments can help determine the
climate change through their distinctive species for different climates. Past climate changes
can be determined through their remains.
 7. Sea Levels: Using a tide gauge a change in sea level was determined over a long period of
time; through altimeter measurements in combination with accurately determined satellite
orbits have provided a global sea level change.

Consequences of Climate Change:

- IPCC: Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (Consisting of 1400 scientists from all
around the world)
- IPCC forecasts a temperature rise of (2.5+10 Degree F).
- IPCC predicts that a rise of 1.8 to 5.4 Degree F increased will be beneficial for some, and
harmful for some regions.
- Net annual cost will increase as global temperature increases.
- It’s a greatest threat to human kind, profound consequences for socio-economic sectors
(Health, Food Production, Energy Consumption, Security and Natural Resource
Management).
- Decline in Crop Yielding
- Increase in climate introduced diseases.
- Recession of glaciers, Rainfall and changes in marine eco system.
- Decline in fresh water ability affects more than a billion people by 2050
- Duration & increase in frequency of Heat will result on increased mortality rate as of heat
stress (Areas where people are not well equipped)
- Increase in winter on high altitudes could lead to a decrease in mortality rates.
- Increase in transmission of vector borne disease (Malaria, Dengue, Yellow Fever)

Observed Effects of Global Warming:

Read page no. 102 9 Points till how to control climate change page no. 103

Kyoto Protocol:

- An international agreement under UNFCC which commits its parties by setting

internationally binding emission reduction targets.
- Protocols was adapted in Kyoto, Japan on December 11 1997 and entered into force on
February 16 2005
- 192 parties have ratified the protocol. (Ratified: Sign or Give formal consent)
- Convention divides country into three main groups:
Annex 1: Members of OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation & Developments)
Industrialized countries with economies in transitions (EIT Parties) (Russian Federation, Baltic
States, Central and Eastern European States).
Non-Annex 1: Developing countries which don’t have binding targets like India, Pakistan,
China.
Annex 2: Parties consists of annex 1 OECD but not EIT they provide financial resources to
enable developing countries to reduce emission activities and adapt adverse effects of
climate changes.

Objectives of Protocols:

- Legally reduce the emission of greenhouse gasses for annex 1 parties. The commitments
were based on the berlin mandate, which was a part of UNFCC negotiation leading up to the
protocol.
 - Policies a measure are required to prepare by annex 1 parties to reduce emissions in their
respective countries.
- To ensure the work accounting, reporting & review is required.
- Establishing a compliance to ensure compliance.

Kyoto’s Three Flexibility Mechanisms:

1. IET (International Emission Trading) or trading of Co2: According to article 17 of the protocol,
an assigned amount of carbon is given to a country but if they have spare (more than the
amount assigned) can trade to other countries.
2. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): According to article 12 of the protocol, countries of
annex 2 parties should implement emission reduction projects in developing countries. Such
as: Eco Efficient Boilers, Solar panels etc.
3. Joint Implementation: According to the article 6 annex 2 parties should introduce emission
reduction projects to other annex 2 parties that can earn their emission reduction units ERUs
equivalent to 1-ton Co2. This way party can find the flexible cost-efficient means of fulfilling
the protocol and the host party can benefit from foreign investment and technology
transfer.

First Commitment Period (2008-2012):

- Industrialized countries and European community reduced the green house gasses emission
by 5% compared to 1990.
- It was the first commitment period 2008-2012
- According to Calculations by European environment agency, total emission of the EU
member states have decreased by an average 12.2 % 2008-2012.
- 2010 GHGs emission rises by around 24% because of some of the industrialized countries
but mostly because of newly Industrialized countries like China.

Doha Amendment and 2nd Commitment Period 2013-2020:

- On December 8th 2012 “Doha Amendment” was abled to the protocols.

- During the second commitment 1st January 2013 to 31th December 2020 parties committed
to reduce the GHGs emission by at least 8% the composition of parties was f=different than
the first period.

Shortcoming of Protocols:

1. Exclusion of Developing Countries:

- Protocol should include all the countries.
- China and India Together represent 1/3 rd of the world population, rapidly growing in terms
of industries were left unchecked.
2. Costs & Economic Implication:
- Experts Believe that in terms of costs, left of jobs and long-term implications its of such
magnitude that there are four more important immediate global priorities to be considered
like projects for clean water.
- Protocol can harm country’s economy.
3. Non-Ratification of U.S:
- In 2001 U.S dropped out of the Kyoto protocol.
- Alone responsible for 25% GHGs emissions.
 4. Kyoto Protocol Success of Failure:
- It was a failure.
- It gave some insights on the global issues.
-Provided an incenter for the development of Science & Technology to overcome.

Ozone Depletion:

- Made of three oxygen atoms O3

- It is on the upper atmosphere (stratosphere)
- Due to GHGs a man-made ozone layer exists in the lower atmosphere (Troposphere) which
is toxic to people and plants
- 100,000 molecules are broken by one molecule of CFC ozone is destroyed when reacts with
CFCs

Importance of Ozone:

- Absorbs ultraviolet rays from sun.

- Screens UV-c and UV-b radiations.
- It screened half of UV-a radiation as if in excess it can lead to skin cancer and eye damage.
- Higher amount of UV can cause
- Weaking of Immune System
- Damage DNA and Cause Mutation
- Destroy crops like wheat, rice, oats barley, etc.
- Plankton can be destroyed (tiny organisms in sea).
- Decrease in plankton can lead to a shit in marine animals and plants.
- Reduce Fish Yard

How to Control Depletion of Ozone:

- Control GHGs emissions + awareness.

Montreal Protocol.

- On September 16 1987 and enforced on January 1 st 1989.

- Treaty designed to protect the ozone.
- 191 nations satisfied.
- Eliminate Man-made ozone depleting substances ODS.
- Due to this ozone layer on antarctica is slowly recovering. It will return to 1980 level
between 2050 and 2070.
- Successful International agreement.