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Lecture Outline Interaction of Syntax & Semantics

Issues: (a) How is language structured?
(b) Language comprehension
(c) Language in the brain

1. Major Features of Language

– Symbolic, (mostly) arbitrary, productive
– Hierarchical taxonomy of language
– Phonemes, morphemes, words, phrases, sentences “The cat chases the dog”
– Lexical ambiguity, syntactic ambiguity
comprehended more easily than
2. Language Comprehension “The dog was chased by the cat”
– Role of vision in speech perception, McGurk Effect
– Language processing is predictive, N400 BUT
– Lexical access & context effects
– Syntax & semantics interact
“The ice cream was eaten by the policeman”
4. Language and the Brain comprehended as well as
– Broca’s aphasia, Wernicke’s aphasia 1 “The policeman ate the ice cream” 2

(not reversible)
1 2

Broca’s aphasia:
Language in the Brain
Difficulty with production: Slow, halting speech.
Simple grammar: no function words (be, of, the).
Comprehension largely intact.
Well I had trouble with...oh, almost everything that
happened from ...eh, eh...golly..., word I can remember,
you know, is ah...when I had the ...ah biggest...a....that I
had trouble with, you know....that I had trouble with

Paul Broca

3 4

3 4

Wernicke’s aphasia:

Fluent speech, but makes little sense (word salad).

Made-up words, word substitutions.
Difficulty with comprehension.

Boy, I'm sweating, I'm awful nervous, you know, once

in a while I get up, I can't mention the tarripoi, a
month ago, quite a little, I've done a lot well, I impose
a lot, while on the other hand, you know, what I mean
I have to run around, look it over, trebbin and all that
sort of stuff.

5 6
Carl Wernicke

5 6

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Language Acquisition Lecture Outline

Mama! (8 months) Issues: (a) What must be learned?
(b) How does it happen?
Wash hair. (1 year, 4 months) 1. What must be learned
– Distinguishing sounds, parsing into phonemes & words, meanings, rules
Don t tickle my tummy, Mommy! (1 year, 11 months) – Without grammatical feedback, using universals

My Grandma gave me this dolly, Cara. My Grandma is my

Mommy s Mommy. I have another Grandma, too. She s
my Daddy s Mommy. And Aunt Elli is my Daddy s
sister. (2 years, 9 months)
2. How does language development proceed?
– Discriminating phonemes, motherese
– Holophrastic stage, telegraphic stage, learning syntax
– Learning word meanings
– Critical period effects

7 8

Language is Complex! Distinguishing Sounds

• Comprehend and generate millions of
sentences • Babies hear lots of sounds, only some of
– Effortlessly and fast
which are language
– Most sentences completely novel – Traffic, dishwashers, vacuums, ...
• Know > 100,000 words
• First job in language acquisition:
• No other species does this, all normal
distinguish language sounds from other
humans do
sounds

• Bottom line: learning language is a big job

9 10

Parsing Language Sounds Assigning Meanings

• Then need to parse it into phonemes
– Chop it up into atomic units of language sound
• Must also parse phonemes into words
• Once have words, need to assign meanings
• Problems:
– Same sound can refer to different things
– Different sounds can refer to same thing

11 12

2

Learning Rules
• Must learn how words are combined
– Grammar
• Must generalize to novel sentences
– So can t just memorize wordings
• Need to acquire rules that can be applied to
new sentences
13 14
Linguistic Universals
• Language is very complex
• Acquisition task is not well constrained
– Irregular mappings from sounds to meanings
– Little negative feedback
• All normal humans acquire language
• Suggests linguistic universals
– General language principals
– Embodied in every language (innate)
15 16
Development: Phonemes
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No Grammatical Feedback
• Adults usually do not correct children s
grammar or pronunciation
– Only correct meaning
• Furthermore, correcting
grammar/pronunciation does not even help!
• Kids correct themselves despite little
negative feedback
Development: Phonemes
• In 1st year, infants can discriminate all phonemes
from all languages
• Gradually lose discriminations that are not
important in their own language
• See video of infant sucking procedure
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFlxiflDk_o) (0:57-5:06)
Motherese
• Adults help kids by speaking motherese
• High pitch, slow rate, exaggerated
intonations
• Falling pitch and pausing signals phrase
boundaries
– Aids parsing
• Infants prefer to listen to motherese
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Holophrastic Stage
Major Stages
• One word utterances
• Holophrastic (one-word) stage
• No syntax, need context (gestures, affect) to
disambiguate
• Telegraphic (two-word) stage

• Undergeneralization & overgeneralization

• Learning syntax/rules (syntactic for first ~75 words
overgeneralization)
• Do understand some phrases

19 20

Telegraphic Stage Learning Syntax/Rules

• Two word utterances • Start learning syntactic/grammar rules

• Correct use of word order: • Examples:

– subject-action – Past tense
– action-object – Nonsense words

• Can convey a lot of information succinctly

(like a telegraph)

21 22

Learning Rules: Past Tense

Learning Rules: Nonsense Words
• Learn general rules that apply to new cases
• 4-5 yr-olds know
– Plural of wug is wugs
– Past tense of rick is ricked
• U-shaped curve for irregular past (went) • Implies language learning is generative, not
just imitation
– Initially, use appropriate form (went)
– Learn rule (add -ed) and overgeneralize (goed)
– Relearn correct past tense (went)

23 24

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Learning Word Meaning Learning Word Meaning

• By age 5, kids know 10,000 to 15,000 words • Input gives clues about parts/wholes
– This is a rabbit; these are his ears
• Learning an average of ~10 new words/day! – his cues the fact that ears is a part

• How? • Inherent bias that new words refer to shape

– If something is a biff , children will claim
• Video of preferential looking procedure other objects with same shape also biffs
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFlxiflDk_o) (9:15-11:33)

25 26

Critical Period Effects

Critical Period Effects
• People who learn language after age 10-12
never acquire native ability
– People raised in social isolation
– 2nd language learners
– American sign language

27 28

Critical Period Effects

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Critical Period Effects

Critical Period Effects
• People who learn language after age 10-12
never acquire native ability
– People raised in social isolation
– 2nd language learners
– American sign language

1 2

Lecture Outline
Critical Period Effects
Issues: (a) Stages of skill acquisition
(b) Theory of skill acquisition
(c) Motor program representations

1. Skill acquisition
1.1. Stages: cognitive, associative, automatic
1.2. Theory: ACT*
Production rules, knowledge compilation
(proceduralization, composition)

2. Motor program representations

2.1. Response chaining & problems
2.2. Abstract, hierarchical representations
1

3 4

Motor Skills:
Two basic problems
Skill acquisition: Speedup with Practice

How does practice turn declarative knowledge into

procedural knowledge? Time

Serial order problem:

How do different parts of a skill get organized

into a sequence?

2 Practice

5 6

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Stages of Skill
Cognitive stage
(Fitts and Posner)
• Cognitive • Declarative knowledge.

• Associative • Commit facts to memory.

• Rehearse as you try to perform.
• Autonomous/Automatic
• Requires attention--can t do second task.
• Example: Golf
– learn the basics by verbal instruction
– practice components and see which ones work • May be independent of skill: the best teacher
– components are strung together may not be the most skillful, but rather someone
– continued practice produces automatic stroke production. who knows how to describe the cognitive stage
well.
5 6

7 8

“My left arm is pointed Associative Stage

up at my vertical
target area, and • Strengthen connections that lead to desired
because of this type of result
toss, my knee bend is
– Feedback is important: See which actions lead to
deep and my torso is desired result
somewhat tilted back.
The torso and • Get rid of actions that lead to errors
shoulders have coiled,
and the right elbow is
low. Vic Braden once
said that for a big
serve, ‘fire the
extensors, baby.’”

7 10

9 10

Automaticity Automaticity Example

• Fast • Touch Typing

• Executed with less attention/consciousness – Practice is needed for automaticity to develop
• Less verbalization – Learner must let go of visual crutch to achieve
automaticity.
– Less dependent on verbalization – Feedback: may get in the way if you want to be fast.
– Declarative knowledge less available
• Feedback
– Less important
– Lower level (proprioceptive not visual)
• Need for consistent practice
– where a stimulus always gets the same response

9 10

11 12

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HOW Does knowledge go from

ACT-R (Anderson)
Declarative to Procedural?
• Adaptive Control of Thought

• Procedural knowledge
– Separate from Declarative
– Made of Production rules: If-then statements

If (condition) then (action)

If (goal is to run) then (lift leg);
If (leg lifted) then (stick foot out); etc. etc.

11 12

13 14

Diagram of ACT-R ACT-R Knowledge Compilation

• Proceduralization: Take declarative knowledge

and turn into productions

• Composition: Take several productions and join

them together into one

13 14

15 16

Production system for tying shoelaces

IF THEN
Example: Tying shoelaces
Children begin with declarative knowledge. Early automatization:
P1: have the goal to tie laces cross lace R under lace L
P2: lace R cross under lace L form a loop with lace R on the left
Declarative knowledge: P3: lace R looped on the left wrap lace L around the base of R loop
Cross lace R under lace L P4: lace L wrapped around base of R push L through opening below R loop
Form a loop with lace R on the left P5: L pushed thru opening below R push L through opening to form loop
Wrap lace L around the base of the R loop. P6: lace L formed loop pull laces L and R tight
Push lace L through the opening below the R loop
Late automatization:
Pull lace L through the opening to form the loop
P7: have the goal to tie laces cross lace R under lace L
Pull laces tight + form a loop with lace R on the left
+ wrap lace L around the base of R loop
These get made into production rules (next slide) + push L through opening below R loop
Rules get chunked into a single rule by experts + push L through opening to form loop
+ pull laces L and R tight
15 16

17 18

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Response chaining
Superior Typing Skill
feedback from one movement triggers the next one
Carole W. Bechen of Dixon, Illinois
World Record for typing: 176 words per minute,

roughly 15 characters per second.

Typing: as one key is pressed, the finger for the

next key is already moving to its key.

Anticipation errors: Becuase

Originally a Behaviorist Notion
Different keyboards have been designed to take
It is Incorrect, because movements occur too quickly advantage of overlapping motor movements.

19 20

19 20

Abstract rules
Motor Program
Signature Signature
=
Representation of the plan for movement and program program
movement sequences
Subprograms
• Fast, doesn t require feedback (First name,
Last name)
• Abstract
• Hierarchical
– Abstract high level
– Specific low level
“Fingers” “Arm”
• Composed of subprograms
– Less abstract representations of movement sub-parts Specific Movements

21 22

21 22

Demo: Writing Name Hierarchical Motor Program

Lm Li Ri Rm
• Signature looks similar for small and large Empirical evidence for Hierachical
examples. Representation:
Rosenbaum experiment

• None of the motor commands are the same. • Make movement sequences:

• Shows evidence for: Lm, Rm, Lm, Rm, Li, Ri, Li, Ri
– Abstract motor representations
– Hierarchical representations. Measure: time between responses

23 24

23 24

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Rosenbaum experiment cont d Evidence for subprograms:

Motor program retrieval
Reaction
time
tone say words For longer sequences, more
subprograms must be
310
retrieved before being sent
to the muscles:
Reaction 300
time
290
to say 1st
Lm Rm Lm Rm Li Ri Li Ri word 380
270 vs.
260
Lm Rm Lm Rm Li Ri Li Ri
1 2 3 4 5
Number of words
to be said
25 26

25 26

Demonstration: Drumming Application: Fitts s Law

• The Paradiddle is a typical drummer s warmup • Discussed in Haberlandt Reading

exercise • Describes a specific type of speed-accuracy trade-off:
– LRLL RLRR Aimed Movements
– Sub-programs are not reusable • Time required to hit a target depends on two things:
– Size of Target
– Sub-programs are exactly opposite
– Distance from Target
– To perform, person needs to acquire higher-order
abstract program ABAA • Describes many types of aimed movements
» Difficult to do for beginner. – Hand movements
» Experts can do it very quickly. – Mouse movements
– Leg Movements
• Computer Interface designers use Fitts s Law

27 28

27 28

Defying Fitts s Law

Obeying Fitts s Law
• Edges of screen are especially easy to hit
– You only have to aim
• Microsoft Windows
used to place
– No penalty for size of target
menus on windows
– Macintosh has taken advantage of this with menus.
– Windows were Not
at the edge
– Aimed movements
obey Fitts s Law
• Bottom Toolbar 1
pixel away from
edge.

29 30

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Microsoft and Fitts s Law

• With Windows XP,

Bottom Toolbar flush with
edge
• Buttons are larger
• Makes use of right-click
to avoid mouse
movements.

31

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Lecture Outline
Issues: (a) Representing problems
(b) Methods & common flaws in problem solving
(c) Expertise Problem
1. Problems and problem representation
– Well-structured vs. ill-structured problems
– Stages in problem solving
– The importance of problem representation
Initial Goal
State Methods State
2. Common flaws in problem solving
– Analogies
– Hindrances to forming appropriate representations

3. Problem solving methods • A Problem consists of some initial state in which

– Algorithms and heuristics a person begins and a goal state that is to be
– Heuristics: Hill climbing, means-ends analysis, working backward attained, plus a non-obvious way of getting from
the first to the second.
4. Expertise
– Very domain specific (chess study)
– Power law of practice
2 3
– Characteristics of expertise

1 2

Types of problems Stages of Problem Solving

Polya (1957)
Well-structured (Well-defined)
– Completely specified starting conditions, goal state, and
methods for achieving the goal.
• Form a representation
» Geometry proofs
• Construct a plan Reformulate
Ill-structured (Ill-defined) • Execute plan
– Some aspects are not completely specified. • Checking/Evaluation
» Finding the perfect mate.
» Choosing a career.
» Writing the best novel.

4 5

3 4

The price of a notebook is four times that of a pencil. The pencil

Problem Solving Concepts: costs $.30 less than the notebook. What is the price of each?

whole range of possible states and operators,

Problem space only some of which will lead to the goal state
Initial & Goal states.
Intermediate States.
Representation of problem. Initial state n = 4p, and p = n - 30
Operators: actions that move between states Substitute for p
Operators Substitute for n
Problem Space: Whole range of possible states and
operators, only some of which will lead to goal state p = 4p - 30
Divide by 4
Intermediate
states Subtract 4p
The price of a notebook is four times that of a from both sides:
Divide by 30

pencil. The pencil costs $.30 less than the

-3p = -30
notebook. What is the price of each? Divide, substitute

Goal state n = 40 and p = 10

6 7

5 6

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Nine Dot Problem

The Nine Dot Problem
• Initial & Goal States well defined
There are 9 dots arranged in a square below. Using no more than • Operators: Four connected lines
4 lines, connect all the dots without lifting your pencil.
• Representation: Graphical layout
• Problem space: all possible lines you can draw

O O O O O O

O O O O O O

O O O O O O
8 9

7 8

Problem Representation
• For many problems, the representation may
make it easier or harder to solve.
– Algebra problems easier as equations
– Geometry problems easier graphically
– Decision problems easier when relevant information is
laid out in a grid
11
Representation:
Monk Example
One morning, exactly at sunrise, a Buddhist monk
began to climb a tall mountain. A narrow path, no
more than a foot or two wide, spiraled around the
mountain to a glittering temple at the summit. The
monk ascended at varying rates of speed, stopping
many times along the way to rest and eat dried fruit
he carried with him. He reached the temple shortly
before sunset. After several days of fasting and
meditation he began his journey back along the
same path, starting at sunrise and again walking
at varying speeds, with many pauses along the way.
His average speed descending was, of course,
greater than his average climbing speed. Is there
a spot along the path that the monk will occupy
on both trips at precisely the same time of day? 12

9 10

Monk Problem Representation Representation: Paper folding

Is there a spot along the path that the monk will occupy Picture a large piece of paper, 1/100 of an inch
on both trips at precisely the same time of day?
thick. In your imagination, fold it once (now
having two layers), fold it once more (now having
• Text-based representation difficult four layers), and continue folding it over on itself
• Imagining a single monk walking up and down the 50 times. It is true that it is impossible to fold any
mountain misleading. actual piece of paper 50 times. But for the sake of
• Modify representation to an isomorphic problem: two the problem imagine that you can. About how
monks. thick would the 50-times-folded paper be?
– Both leave at the same time
– One from the top of the mountain
– One from the bottom of the mountain
– At some point, they must meet.
13 15

11 12

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Representation: Paper folding Number scrabble

How thick?
Visualization doesn’t help 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

.01 * 2^50 inches Two players, each draws one card at a time.
= 177.7 million miles First player to hold 3 cards that sum to 15 wins.

6 1 8 x x x
7 5 3 o o
2 9 4

isomorphs:
16 equivalent problems, different representation 18

13 14

Duncker s Ray Problem

Analogies
• Retrieve a representation of a problem from
memory that is similar to the problem you
currently face.
• People tend to miss deep similarities between
problems, because they tend to focus on surface
similarities.
Suppose you are a doctor faced with a patient who has
a malignant tumor in his stomach. It is impossible to
operate on the patient, but unless the tumor is destroyed
the patient will die. There is a kind of ray that can be
used to destroy the tumor. If the rays reach the tumor
all at once at a sufficiently high intensity, the tumor will
be destroyed. Unfortunately, at this intensity the healthy
tissue that the rays pass through on the way to the tumor
will also be destroyed. At lower intensities the rays are
harmless to healthy tissue, but they will not affect the
tumor either. What type of procedure might be used to
destroy the tumor with the rays, and at the same time avoid
destroying the healthy tissue?

19 20

15 16

Military Problem
A small country was ruled from a strong fortress by a dictator. Many
Duncker s Ray Problem roads led to the fortress through the countryside. A rebel general vowed to
capture the fortress, which he knew he could do with an attack by his entire
army. However, the general learned that the dictator had planted mines on
• Real-world solution: use sub-lethal doses coming each of the roads. The mines were set so that small bodies of men could
in from different directions. pass over them safely. However, any large force would detonate the mines.
• 10-20% of subject came up with this
spontaneously The general devised a simple plan. He divided his army into small
groups and dispatched each group to the head of a different road. When
all was ready he gave the signal and each group marched down a different
• Would Analogy help? road. Each group continued down its road to the fortress so that the entire
• Gick & Holyoak (1980) first presented subjects army arrived together at the fortress at the same time. In this way, the
general captured the fortress and overthrew the dictator.
with story about a general.

22 23

17 18

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Military Problem
• Analogous to Ray problem Hindrances in forming a
• Participants were either asked to solve ray problem alone, or after
reading military problem (analogy).
representation.
• Some in analogy condition were given a hint: “Can you use the military
problem to help you solve the ray problem?” • Top-down preconceptions
• Results: few subjects spontaneously used analogy. – When we look at a new problem, we tend to encode it
in a way consistent with Long-term memory.
No analogy: 10%.
Solving radiation problem: Analogy + hint: 80%
Analogy, no hint: 30% Functional Fixedness: see an object as having only a
fixed, familiar function.
•Keane (1987) asked people to “Recall Analogous Stories”
•Subjects heard military problem, ray problem, and a modified Duncker s Candle problem demonstrates this effect: how
military problem (general destroying fortress with rays) can you use the following items to support a candle on
•Same deep problem structure a wall?
•New problem had more similarity of surface features
•Problems with greater surface similarity recalled more often 24 26

19 20

Duncker s Candle Problem: Duncker’s Candle Problem:

43% solved
(tacks in box)

27 29

21 22

Duncker s Candle Problem:

100% solved (tacks are loose) Candle Problem:

• Initial problem state affects the types of solutions

people will entertain.

• Improvements when tacks are not initially inside

the box

• Improvements when the box is referred to

explicitly.

30 31

23 24

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Maier s Rope Problem

• Demonstrates functional fixedness

• People think of the pliers as a grabbing device,

not a pendulum.

Maier s two-rope problem 32 34

25 26

Trains Meeting Problem Trains-meeting Problem

Two train stations are fifty miles apart. At 2 PM one
Saturday afternoon two trains start toward each other, • Trapped by a familiar perspective
one from each station. Just as the trains pull out of – Most people take perspective of bird.
the stations, a bird springs into the air in front of the
– Some might use advanced mathematics of
first train and flies to the front of the second train. infinite series and limits.
When the bird reaches the second train, it turns back
and flies toward the first train. The bird continues to
do this until the trains meet. – BUT, just notice how long the trains will travel
(1 hour)
If both trains travel at the rate of twenty-five miles
per hour, and the bird flies at one hundred miles per – Bird, flying at 100 miles/hour, travels 100
hour, how many miles will the bird have flown before miles.
the trains meet?
35 36

27 28

Luchin s water jar problem

Luchin s water jar problem
Problem Pitcher A Pitcher B Pitcher C Goal
Your goal is to measure out exactly 100 units of water from
an unlimited source of water. The only tools you have to do 1 21 127 3 100
this are three pitchers: Pitcher A which will hold 21 units of 2 14 46 5 22
water, Pitcher B which will hold 127 units, and Pitcher C 3 18 43 10 5
which will hold 3 units. Describe the sequence of filling and 4 7 42 6 23
pouring that would be necessary in order to measure out 5 20 57 4 29
the goal amount. 6 23 49 3 20
7 15 39 3 18
Pitcher A Pitcher B Pitcher C Goal 8 28 76 3 25
21 127 3 100
Answer: B - A - 2C:
i.e., start with Pitcher B which holds 127 units of water; pour out 21
units of water into Pitcher A. That will leave 106 units of water left in
Pitcher B. Now pour off 3 units of water into Pitcher C; dump it; then
another 3 units into Pitcher C. What is left in Pitcher B is 100 units.
37 38

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Luchin s water jar problem

Problem Pitcher A Pitcher B Pitcher C Goal Interim Summary
1 21 127 3 100
2 14 46 5 22 • Problem solving components:
3 18 43 10 5 – Problem space, operators, states
4 7 42 6 23
5 20 57 4 29 • Importance of representation
6 23 49 3 20 • Ability to notice analogy
7 15 39 3 18 – Improved when surface features are similar
8 28 76 3 25
• Functional Fixedness
Formulas: • Stuck in Set: Improper application of analogous
1-5 B - A - 2C solutions
6 B - A - 2C also A - C (easier) “Stuck in set”
7 B - A - 2C also A + C (easier)
8 A - C works, not B-A-2C
39 40

31 32

Algorithms & Heuristics Think-aloud protocols

Solve: TERALBAY
Algorithms
• AALBERTY alphabetizing
– Completely specified sequence of steps that is
• RALBATEY just trying things
guaranteed to produce an answer
• TEABLARY still no idea
» Usually guaranteed to produce the correct answer
• TEARABLY another variation
» But may be slow or laborious
• RATEABLY maybe it ends in ABLY
• YARTABLE maybe it ends in ABLE
Heuristics • RAYTABLE hunting for a word ending in ABLE
– Short cut / Rule of thumb • LATRAYBE maybe something to do with TRAY
• BETRAYAL That s it!
» Never guaranteed to produce correct answer
» But usually quick and easy
• Note: protocols do not reflect all of the reasons why a person tried a
specific configuration.

41 43

33 34

On one side of a river are three hobbits and three orcs.

Difference Reduction
(Hill Climbing)
At any point, select the operator that moves you closer to the
goal state: is new state more similar to goal?
(never choose an operator that moves you away)
They have a boat on their side that is capable of carrying
two creatures at a time across the river. The goal is to
transport all six creatures across to the other side of the
river. At no point on either side of the river can orcs
outnumber hobbits (or the orcs would eat the outnumbered
hobbits). The problem, then, is to find a method of
transporting all six creatures across the river without
the hobbits ever being outnumbered.

Get to CA
HHHOOO

HHH OOO

Cannot be solved with difference reduction.

44 45

35 36

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Hobbits and Orcs Means-end analysis:

HHHOOO
HHH OOO
• Identify the largest difference between current state
and goal state
HH OO • Set as a subgoal reducing that difference.
OO
HO • Find & apply an operator to reduce the difference
HHHO
HHHOO • (If operator can’t be applied, new subgoal = remove
O
O
obstacle that prevents applying the operator)
HHHOO

HHH
OOO I want to take the twins to Preschool. What’s the
OOO difference between what I have and what I want?
HHH
One of distance. What changes distance? My
HHHO
Difference automobile. My automobile won’t work. What is
“This must be the OO Reduction
OO needed to make it work? A new battery. What has
wrong strategy, I’m
going the wrong way” HHHO AND new batteries? An auto repair shop. I want the
auto repair shop to put in a new battery; but the
Subgoaling: shop doesn’t know I need one. What is the difficulty?
HO
HHOO One of communication. What allows communication?
HHOO 46 A telephone...and so on. 47
HO

37 38

Basic logic of Means-end analysis

Means-ends analysis Flowchart 1: Transform current state into goal state

and Air Travel Match current state
Difference SUCCESS
detected Subgoal: Eliminate
to goal state to find the the difference
• Goal: Get to California most important difference
FAIL
• Operator: Fly in a plane No Differences

– Subgoal: Get to airport

SUCCESS FAIL
– Operator: Driving car
» Subgoal: Get to car Flowchart 2: Eliminate a difference
» Operator: walking
» Apply walking operator to achieve subgoal
SUCCESS
– Apply Driving car operator to achieve sub-goal Search for operator Match condition of Subgoal:
• Apply Flying in plane operator to achieve goal. relevant to reducing
the difference
operator to current
state to find most Difference
Eliminate
the difference
important difference detected
None found
No Differences

48 FAIL Apply Operator 50

39 40

Productions for Tower of Hanoi

Problem-solving:
Working backward
IF the peg 3 is clear and the largest disk is free
Transform goal state so it is more similar to the
THEN move the largest disk to peg 3. initial state.
IF the largest disk is not free,
THEN set a subgoal to free it. Useful if too many paths leading from initial state.

IF a subgoal is to free the largest disk and a smaller

disk is on it,
THEN move the smaller disk off. Initial Goal
State State

51 52

41 42

7
 4/7/21

Working backward:
A B

Working
backward
useful for
mazes:
C D

A geometry problem:
Given that ABDC is a rectangle, prove that AD and CB
are congruent.

Start at end: what would make AD and CB are congruent?

53 54

43 44

One (painful) way to solve the water lilies problem...

55 56

45 46

Means-ends analysis can involve

Expertise in Problem Solving
working backwards
• Airport example: • Expertise usually helps ability to solve problems.
– Largest difference was the final step – More experience
– We solved the entire problem from the end backward – Better representations
before even taking our first step. – More practice solving problems

– Gives impression that a problem-solver is • But can sometimes harm:

contemplative, doing everything in head before taking
action. – Functional Fixedness
– Water jug mental set
– Probably not accurate for many problems.

57 58

47 48

8
 4/7/21

Actual board positions Masters

Expertise

Number correct
• In chess study, experts memory was no better than
Chess beginners.
study Beginners • Memory for meaningful configurations much better.
• Memory for random configurations slightly worse (probably
hindered by schemas)
• Chess masters know 50,000 chess patterns.
Random board positions
• Chess masters intentionally study these patterns.
Beginners
• For any non-trivial domain, true expertise develops after
Number correct

Masters 10,000 hours of practice (or about ten years).

60 61

49 50

Talent or Motivation? What does Practice Do?

Study compared 18 year old violinists: • Improvement follows a power law:

– Improvement diminishes with time.
•Some were international-level soloists
– It takes VERY long to gain the small amount of
•Others were very good (but a level below) improvement that separates really good from great.
•Estimated the number of hours spent practicing

Best: 7,410 hours of practice

Good: 5,301 hrs.

What makes someone an incredible athlete,

musician, writer, chef, etc.?
Nature or Nurture?

62 63

51 52

ACT-R Knowledge Compilation More on Expertise

• ACT-R predicts power law of practice because • Rich, organized schemas

of: – Lots of well-organized declarative and procedural knowledge
– More sophisticated representations

– Proceduralization: Take declarative knowledge and • Spend more time on representation

turn into productions – experts take longer to start solution, but less time to complete
it
• Recognize subcomponents
– Composition: Take several productions and join them • Less Means-End analysis
together into one – pre-stored solutions in long term memory
– fewer demands on working memory
• Move forward, not backward

64 65

53 54

9
 Lecture Outline
Issues: (a) Representing problems
(b) Methods & common flaws in problem solving
(c) Expertise
Algorithms & Heuristics
1. Problems and problem representation
– Well-structured vs. ill-structured problems Algorithms
– Stages in problem solving – Completely specified sequence of steps that is
– The importance of problem representation guaranteed to produce an answer
» Usually guaranteed to produce the correct answer
2. Common flaws in problem solving
– Analogies
» But may be slow or laborious
– Hindrances to forming appropriate representations

3. Problem solving methods Heuristics

– Algorithms and heuristics – Short cut / “Rule of thumb”
– Heuristics: Hill climbing, means-ends analysis, working
backward » Never guaranteed to produce correct answer
» But usually quick and easy
4. Expertise
– Very domain specific (chess study)
– Power law of practice 1 41
– Characteristics of expertise

1 2

Think-aloud protocols Difference Reduction

(Hill Climbing)
Solve: TERALBAY At any point, select the operator that moves you closer to
• AALBERTY “alphabetizing” the goal state: is new state more similar to goal?
• RALBATEY “just trying things” (never choose an operator that moves you away)
• TEABLARY “still no idea”
• TEARABLY “another variation
• RATEABLY “maybe it ends in ABLY”
• YARTABLE “maybe it ends in ABLE” Get to CA
• RAYTABLE “hunting for a word ending in ABLE
• LATRAYBE “maybe something to do with TRAY
• BETRAYAL “That’s it!”

• Note: protocols do not reflect all of the reasons why a person

tried a specific configuration.

43 44

3 4

Hobbits and Orcs

On one side of a river are three hobbits and three orcs.
They have a boat on their side that is capable of carrying HHHOOO
two creatures at a time across the river. The goal is to HHH OOO
transport all six creatures across to the other side of the HH OO
river. At no point on either side of the river can orcs OO
HO
outnumber hobbits (or the orcs would eat the outnumbered HHHO
hobbits). The problem, then, is to find a method of HHHOO
transporting all six creatures across the river without O
O HHHOO
the hobbits ever being outnumbered.
HHH
OOO
OOO
HHHOOO HHH
HHHO “This must be the OO
HHH OOO OO wrong strategy, I’m
going the wrong HHHO
way”
Cannot be solved with difference reduction. HO
HHOO
45 HHOO 46
HO

5 6

Page 1
1
 Means-end analysis:

• Identify the largest difference between current

Means-ends analysis
state and goal state and Air Travel
• Set as a subgoal reducing that difference.
• Find & apply an operator to reduce the difference • Goal: Get to California
• (If operator can’t be applied, new subgoal = • Operator: Fly in a plane
remove obstacle that prevents applying the – Subgoal: Get to airport
operator) – Operator: Driving car
» Subgoal: Get to car
I want to take the twins to Preschool. What’s the
difference between what I have and what I want? » Operator: walking
One of distance. What changes distance? My » Apply walking operator to achieve subgoal
Difference automobile. My automobile won’t work. What is – Apply Driving car operator to achieve sub-goal
Reduction needed to make it work? A new battery. What has
AND new batteries? An auto repair shop. I want the • Apply Flying in plane operator to achieve
auto repair shop to put in a new battery; but the goal.
Subgoaling: shop doesn’t know I need one. What is the difficulty?
One of communication. What allows communication?
A telephone...and so on. 47 48

7 8

Basic logic of Means-end analysis

Flowchart 1: Transform current state into goal state

Productions for Tower of Hanoi
Difference SUCCESS
Match current state detected Subgoal: Eliminate
to goal state to find the
most important difference
the difference IF the peg 3 is clear and the largest disk is free
FAIL THEN move the largest disk to peg 3.
No Differences

SUCCESS FAIL IF the largest disk is not free,

THEN set a subgoal to free it.
Flowchart 2: Eliminate a difference
IF a subgoal is to free the largest disk and a smaller
SUCCESS
disk is on it,
Search for operator Match condition of
relevant to reducing operator to current
Subgoal:
Eliminate
THEN move the smaller disk off.
the difference state to find most Difference
the difference
important difference detected
None found
No Differences

FAIL Apply Operator 9 10

9 10

Problem-solving:
Working backward Working
Transform goal state so it is more similar to the backward
initial state.
useful for
mazes:
Useful if too many paths leading from initial
state.

Initial Goal
State State

11 12

11 12

Page 2
2
 Working backward:
A B

C D

A geometry problem:
Given that ABDC is a rectangle, prove that AD and CB
are congruent.

Start at end: what would make AD and CB are congruent?

13 14

13 14

One (painful) way to solve the water lilies problem...

Means-ends analysis can
involve working backwards
• Airport example:
– Largest difference was the final step
– We solved the entire problem from the end
backward before even taking our first step.

– Gives impression that a problem-solver is

contemplative, doing everything in head before
taking action.

– Probably not accurate for many problems.

15 16

15 16

Actual board positions Masters

Expertise in Problem Solving

Number correct

Chess
• Expertise usually helps ability to solve study
problems. Beginners
– More experience
– Better representations
– More practice solving problems

• But can sometimes harm:

– Functional Fixedness
– Water jug ‘mental set’

17 18

17 18

Page 3
3
 Actual board positions Masters

Expertise

Number correct
• In chess study, experts memory was no better than
Chess beginners.
study Beginners • Memory for meaningful configurations much better.
• Memory for random configurations slightly worse
(probably hindered by schemas)
• Chess masters know 50,000 chess patterns.
Random board positions
• Chess masters intentionally study these patterns.
Number correct Beginners
• For any non-trivial domain, true expertise develops
after 10,000 hours of practice (or about ten years).
Masters

19 20

19 20

What does Practice Do?

Talent or Motivation?

Study compared 18 year old violinists: • Improvement follows a power law:

– Improvement diminishes with time.
•Some were international-level soloists
– It takes VERY long to gain the small amount of
•Others were very good (but a level below) improvement that separates really good from great.
•Estimated the number of hours spent
practicing

Best: 7,410 hours of practice

Good: 5,301 hrs.

What makes someone an incredible athlete,

musician, writer, chef, etc.?
Nature or Nurture?
21 22

21 22

ACT-R Knowledge Compilation More on Expertise

• ACT-R predicts power law of practice • Rich, organized schemas

because of: – Lots of well-organized declarative and procedural
knowledge
– More sophisticated representations
– Proceduralization: Take declarative knowledge and • Spend more time on representation
turn into productions
– experts take longer to start solution, but less time to
complete it
• Recognize subcomponents
– Composition: Take several productions and join
them together into one • Less Means-End analysis
– pre-stored solutions in long term memory
– fewer demands on working memory
• Move forward, not backward

23 24

23 24

Page 4
4
 Lecture Outline
Issues: (a) How should people reason in theory?
(b) How do people reason in practice?

1. Reasoning Taxonomy
Judgment and Decision Making – Deductive (deterministic) vs. inductive (probabilistic)
– Normative vs. descriptive theories

Drawing Conclusions from Evidence 2. Normative theories of probabilistic reasoning

– Current evidence and base rate
– Bayes’ theorem

3. Descriptive theories of probabilistic reasoning

– Representativeness heuristic
25 26

25 26

Kinds of reasoning Theories of reasoning

• Deterministic: Deductive • Normative: how one ought to reason

– e.g., rules of logic
• Probabilistic: Inductive
• Descriptive: how people actually reason
– e.g., biases, heuristics

27 28

27 28

Drawing conclusions from evidence:

probabilistic

• Client reports hearing voices - schizophrenic?

Current evidence
• Bleeding gums: gingivitis?
• Mammogram yields positive result: breast
cancer?
Base rate

29 30

29 30

Page 5
5
 Mammogram outcome for 1000 women

Actual Health

Total
80% of all women with breast cancer have a Cancer present Cancer absent
positive mammogram result. 107
Test Positive 8 99
Results
Patient A.C. has a positive mammogram. What is Negative 2 891 893
the probability that she has cancer?
Total 10 990

p (pos mammogram / breast cancer) = 8 / 10 = .80

P (breast cancer / positive mammogram) = 8 / 107 = .07

31 32
Doctors confuse these.

31 32

99
No C & M+ p(H) = overall probability that hypothesis is true
= prior probability

Bayes’ Theorem = BASE RATE

8 C & M+
C & M- P (H / E) = P (E / H) P (H) H = hypothesis
891 E = evidence
2 No C & M- P (E / H) P (H) + P (E / H) P (H)

P (breast cancer / positive mammogram)

p (pos mammogram / breast cancer) = 8 / 10 = .80
p (M +/ C) p(C)
P (breast cancer / positive mammogram) = 8 / 107 = .07 =
p (M + / C) p (C) + p (M + / C) p (C)
33 34
Doctors confuse these.

33 34

Want to know: p (C / M+) (probability of cancer given evidence of

positive mammogram) Three Critical Pieces of Info
We know: p (M+ / C) = .8 (8/10) hits
• Current Evidence
p (M+ / no C) = .11 (99/990) False + 1. P(E / H): probability of current evidence if
p (C) = .01 (10/1000) hypothesis is true
p (no C) = 1 - .01 = .99
2. P(E / H): probability of current evidence if
hypothesis is false

p (M +/ C) p(C)
p (C / M+) = • Base Rate
p (M + / C) p (C) + p (M+ / C) p (C) 3. P(H): probability of hypothesis independent of
current evidence
= .8 * .01
[.8 * .01 + .11 * .99]
= .07
35 36

35 36

Page 6
6
 Suppose there are two bags with poker chips: Suppose there are two bags with poker chips:

1) 70 red and 30 blue 1) 70 red and 30 blue

2) 70 blue and 30 red 2) 70 blue and 30 red

A person chooses one bag. What is the probability that it is A person chooses one bag. What is the probability that it is
the predominantly red one? the predominantly red one?

base rate is .5 for each bag: a priori probability is .5 for each bag:
i.e., P (red bag) = .5 and P (blue bag) = .5 i.e., P (red bag) = .5 and P (blue bag) = .5

Suppose we choose one chip from that bag and the chip is red.

By Bayes theorem, what is the probability it is from the red bag?

P (red bag / R) = P (R / red bag) P (red bag)

P (R / red bag) P (red bag) + P (R / blue bag) P (blue bag)
= (.7) (.5) / [(.7) (.5) + (.3) (.5)]
= .7
37 But People say .6 (too much attention to base
38 rate,
not enough weight to current evidence)

37 38

Suppose there are two bags with poker chips: Chip Problem

1) 70 red and 30 blue Bag A: 10 blue, 20 red

2) 70 blue and 30 red Bag B: 20 blue, 10 red

Probability of choosing from bag A is .80

Person Picks 8 reds and 4 blues

You draw 3 chips from the bag in question with replacement,
What is the probability chips were drawn from bag 1? and look at the color; they are 2 blues and 1 red. What is the
probability that you ’ve chosen from bag A?
Normative: .97
Result: Most people guess there’s a higher probability of
People say: .75 having chosen bag B.

Again, too much attention to base rate (.5) Normatively, the proper answer Bag A = .67
not enough weight to current evidence

base rate ignored

39 40

39 40

Representativeness
(Tversky and Kahneman)

P (A / 2B, 1 R) = P (2B, 1R / A) P (A) Judge whether A has some characteristic by

relying on the similarity of A to other things
P (2B, 1R / A) P (A) + P (2B, 1R / B) P (B) with that characteristic.
= (.33) (.33) (.67) (.8)
e.g., judge whether your patient is schizophrenic
(.33) (.33) (.67) (.8) + (.67) (.67) (.33) (.2) by relying on how similar he or she is to
schizophrenics.
= .0593 / .0593 + .0296 = .67

Problem: ignores base rates

41 42

41 42

Page 7
7
 Coin Flips

All families of 6 children in a city were surveyed.

In 72 families, the exact order of births was You flip a coin 5 times.
GBGBBG. What is your estimate of the number Which sequence is more likely?
of families surveyed in which the exact order of
births was BGBBBB?

answer: 72 HHHHH

why? probability of a set with one HHHHT

GG B and one G is .5, but prob
BG of exact order BG is .25
GB
BB
43 44

43 44

Experiment part 2:
Engineer description
Experiment part 1:
No Description given
Jack is a 45-year-old man. He is married and has four
children. He is generally conservative, careful, and
ambitious. He shows no interest in political and social
Group 1: Jack chosen from 70 lawyers & 30 engineers.
issues and spends most of his free time on his many
Probability he’s an engineer = .3
hobbies, which include home carpentry, sailing, and
mathematical puzzles.
Group 2: Jack chosen from 30 lawyers and 70 engineers.
Prob. he’s an engineer = .7
Group 3: Jack chosen from 70 lawyers & 30 engineers.
Probability he’s an engineer = .9
correct
Group 4: Jack chosen from 30 lawyers and 70 engineers.
Prob. he’s an engineer = .9

Base rate ignored

45 46

45 46

Experiment part 3:
Neutral description
Dick is a 30-year old man. He is married with no children.
A man of high ability and high motivation, he promises
to be quite successful in his field. He is well-liked by
his colleagues.
Group 5: Dick chosen from 70 lawyers & 30 engineers.
Probability he’s an engineer = .5
Group 6: Dick chosen from 30 lawyers and 70 engineers.
Prob. he’s an engineer = .5
Similarity of instance to category: Experiment
Tom W. is of high intelligence, although lacking in
true creativity. He has a need for order and clarity,
and for neat and tidy systems in which every detail
finds its appropriate place. His writing is rather dull
and mechanical, occasionally enlivened by somewhat
corny puns and flashes of imagination of the sci-fi
type. He has a strong drive for competence. He
seems to have little feel and little sympathy for other
people and does not enjoy interacting with others.
Self-centered, he nonetheless has a deep moral sense.

Base rate ignored (even with neutral description)

47 48

47 48

Page 8
8
 Similarity of instance to category: Experiment cont’d
99
Business administration Medicine
No C & M+
Computer science Physical and life sciences
Engineering Social sciences
Humanities and education Law 8 C & M+
Library science
C & M-
Group 1: estimate the percent of grad students in these fields: 891
3x more Humanities than CS (base rate) 2 No C & M-

Group 2: The preceding sketch was written by a psychologist

on the basis of a projective test. Tom W. is now a graduate
student in one of these fields. Which field is it?

Group 3: Rate how similar the description of Tom is to each So representativeness heuristic causes doctors to confuse these:
field.
p (M+ / C) = .8 probability of a positive mammogram given cancer
p (C / M+) = .07 probability of cancer given a positive mammogram
Result: Group 2 says Tom is a CS student, in accordance with Group 3.
- ignores base rates A person with a positive mammogram is more similar to a person
- judgment based on similarity 49 with cancer than to a person without cancer. 50

49 50

Page 9
9
 Lecture Outline
Representativeness
Issues: (a) How should people reason in theory? (Tversky and Kahneman)
(b) How do people reason in practice?
Judge whether A has some characteristic by
1. Reasoning Taxonomy relying on the similarity of A to other things
– Deductive (deterministic) vs. inductive (probabilistic) with that characteristic.
– Normative vs. descriptive theories

e.g., judge whether your patient is schizophrenic

2. Normative theories of probabilistic reasoning by relying on how similar he or she is to
– Current evidence and base rate schizophrenics.
– Bayes’ theorem

Problem: ignores base rates

3. Descriptive theories of probabilistic reasoning
– Representativeness heuristic
1 2

1 2

Coin Flips
Experiment part 1:
No Description given
You flip a coin 5 times.
Which sequence is more likely?
Group 1: Jack chosen from 70 lawyers & 30 engineers.
Probability he’s an engineer = .3

Group 2: Jack chosen from 30 lawyers and 70 engineers.

HHHHH Prob. he’s an engineer = .7

HHHHT
correct

3 4

3 4

Experiment part 2: Experiment part 3:

Engineer description Neutral description

Jack is a 45-year-old man. He is married and has four
children. He is generally conservative, careful, and
ambitious. He shows no interest in political and social
issues and spends most of his free time on his many
hobbies, which include home carpentry, sailing, and
mathematical puzzles.
Group 3: Jack chosen from 70 lawyers & 30 engineers.
Probability he’s an engineer = .9
Group 4: Jack chosen from 30 lawyers and 70 engineers.
Prob. he’s an engineer = .9
Dick is a 30-year old man. He is married with no children.
A man of high ability and high motivation, he promises
to be quite successful in his field. He is well-liked by
his colleagues.
Group 5: Dick chosen from 70 lawyers & 30 engineers.
Probability he’s an engineer = .5
Group 6: Dick chosen from 30 lawyers and 70 engineers.
Prob. he’s an engineer = .5
Base rate ignored (even with neutral description)

Base rate ignored

5 6

5 6

Page 1
 Similarity of instance to category: Experiment cont’d
Similarity of instance to category: Experiment Business administration Medicine
Computer science Physical and life sciences
Engineering Social sciences
Tom W. is of high intelligence, although lacking in Humanities and education Law
true creativity. He has a need for order and clarity, Library science
and for neat and tidy systems in which every detail
Group 1: estimate the percent of grad students in these fields:
finds its appropriate place. His writing is rather dull
3x more Humanities than CS (base rate)
and mechanical, occasionally enlivened by somewhat
corny puns and flashes of imagination of the sci-fi
Group 2: The preceding sketch was written by a psychologist
type. He has a strong drive for competence. He
on the basis of a projective test. Tom W. is now a graduate
seems to have little feel and little sympathy for other student in one of these fields. Which field is it?
people and does not enjoy interacting with others.
Self-centered, he nonetheless has a deep moral sense. Group 3: Rate how similar the description of Tom is to each
field.

Result: Group 2 says Tom is a CS student, in accordance with Group 3.

- ignores base rates
7 - judgment based on similarity 8

7 8

99 Lecture Outline
No C & M+
Issues: (a) What heuristics do people use?
(b) What errors are common?
8 C & M+
C & M-
891 1. Availability heuristic
2 No C & M- – What it is, problems
2. Simulation heuristic
– What it is, importance of causal links
3. Conjunction fallacy
– What it is, how it can be explained
So representativeness heuristic causes doctors to confuse these:
4. Framing effect
p (M+ / C) = .8 probability of a positive mammogram given cancer
5. Conclusions
p (C / M+) = .07 probability of cancer given a positive mammogram
– People use non-normative heuristics
A person with a positive mammogram is more similar to a person – Reduce complexity of task but produce errors
with cancer than to a person without cancer. 9

9 10

Recall Frequency Estimate

Famous names experiment 10 30

8
Group 1: 6 20

• Group 1: • Group 2: Famous

4
Males vs.
Females 2 10
– 20 famous male names – 20 famous female names

– 20 less famous females – 20 less famous males Male Female Male Female
names names names names
10 30

Group 2: 8

Famous 6 20
Females vs. 4
Males
2 10

Male Female Male Female

names names names names

11 12

Page 2
 Availability Subjects given category:

Russian novelists vs. flowers

“A person is said to employ the availability
heuristic whenever he estimates frequency or • Either:
probability by the ease with which instances
– Subjects given 7 seconds to estimate how many
or associations could be brought to mind.” they could retrieve in 2 minutes.

--Tversky and Kahneman (1973) • Or:

– Subjects given 2 minutes to retrieve as many
examples as possible.

• Result: Correlation between estimate and

retrieval nearly perfect.

13 14

Ross and Sicoly (1979): which chores do you do?

For each of the following pairs of lethal events, judge
which one is the more frequently occurring in this
country: making breakfast
cleaning dishes Each partner said that
cleaning house he or she performed 80%
breast cancer versus diabetes shopping for groceries
caring for children of the chores.
planning leisure activities
deciding how to spend money but 80 + 80 = 160%
stomach cancer versus lung cancer deciding where to live
choosing friends
making important decisions
resolving conflicts
strokes versus all types of accidents washing the clothes
keeping in touch with relatives
demonstrating affection
taking out the garbage
tornados versus asthma

Subjects’ choices shown in yellow

15 16

• In four pages of a novel (about 2000 words),

how many words would you expect to find
Which is more common: words that start that have the form ----ing?
with “r”, or words with “r” as the third letter.

• In four pages of a novel (about 2000 words),

how many words would you expect to find
that have the form -----n-?

17 18

Page 3
 Simulation heuristic
Base judgments on how easily you can imagine:
– how things will turn out in the future
– how things would have turned out in different
circumstances.
19
Scenarios for causes and effects
Which would be more accurate?
1 - Predicting a daughter’s eye color from her
mother’s eye color, or predicting a mother’s
eye color from her daughter’s eye color?
2 - Predicting father’s height from son’s, or
prediction of son’s height from father’s?
21
Conjunction fallacy
Occurs when people mistakenly believe that a
conjunction of events (Hot and sunny) is more
probable than a single event (Hot).
example:
People mistakenly report that words like “- - ing”
are more probable than words like “- - - n -”
(availability)
23
Page 4
Simulation heuristic
Mr. Crane and Mr. Tees were scheduled to
leave the airport on different flights, at the
same time. They traveled from town to town
in the same limousine, were caught in a
traffic jam, and arrived at the airport 30 minutes
after the scheduled departure time of their
flights.
Mr. Crane is told that his flight left on time. Mr.
Tees is told that his flight was delayed, and just
left 5 minutes ago. Who is more upset?
20
Causal links between action and
actor
Helen was driving to work along a three-lane
road, where the middle lane is used for
passing by traffic from both directions. She
changed lanes to pass a slow-moving truck,
and quickly realized that she was headed
directly for another car coming in the
opposite direction. For a moment it looked as
if a collision was inevitable. However, this did
not occur. Please indicate in one sentence
how you think the accident was avoided.
22
Conjunction fallacy
(because of simulated causal scenario):
A health survey was conducted on adult males. Mr. F.
was included. Which is more probable?
1 - That Mr. F has had one or more heart attacks
2 - That Mr. F has had one or more heart attacks and is
over 55.
58% make conjunction error
but only 25% make conjunction error here:
A health survey was conducted on 100 males.
1 - how many do you think had 1 or more heart attacks?
2 - how many do you think were over 55 and have had 1
or more heart attacks.
24
 Conjunction fallacy from causal reasoning
Evaluate which of the following has a higher
probability:
(a) That there will be a massive flood in North
America in 2021.
(b) That there will be an earthquake in California
in 2021 that causes a massive flood, in which
more than a thousand people die.
25
Conjunction fallacy from representativeness
Linda is 31, single, outspoken, and very bright.
She majored in philosophy in college. As a
student, she was deeply concerned with
discrimination and other social issues, and
participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Which statement is more likely:
1 - Linda is a bank teller.
2 - Linda is a bank teller and is active in the
feminist movement.
27
Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the
outbreak of an unusual disease, which is
expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative
programs to combat the disease have been
proposed. Assume that
If program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.
If program B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that
600 will be saved, and a 2/3 probability that no
people will be saved.
Which would you choose?
29
Page 5
Conjunction fallacy from causal reasoning
Evaluate which of the following has a higher
probability:
(a) That there will be a complete suspension
of diplomatic relations between the United
States and Indonesia sometime in 2021.
(b) That Indonesia will take control of East
Timor by force and that there will be a
complete suspension of diplomatic relations
between the United States and Indonesia
sometime in 2021.
26
Framing Effect:
Is the glass half empty, or half full?
The same information presented in different
forms can lead to different decisions.
28
Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the
outbreak of an unusual disease, which is
expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative
programs to combat the disease have been
proposed. Assume that
If program C is adopted, 400 people will die for
certain.
If program D is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that
nobody will die, and a 2/3 probability that 600
people will die.
Which would you choose?
30
 Framing effect

• Subjects rate a basketball player more highly

if the player has made 75% of his or her free
throws, compared to their ratings of a player
who missed 25% of his or her free throws. 90% fat free 10% fat

• Subjects more likely to endorse a medical

treatment with a “50% success rate” than one
with a “50% failure rate.”

31 32

Conclusions

• People are not intuitive statisticians

– Use heuristics that are not normative

• Heuristics reduce task complexity

• Heuristics lead to systematic errors

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