Summary and Managerial Insights from the QMS course material.

Objective
The objective of this report is to summarize the key learning outcomes and managerial insights gained
through the course material of the subject “Queuing Models and Simulations” during the term 4 of
First Year MBA 2020-22.

Learnings and Managerial Insights

Review of Probability and Python basics
The pre requisites to the understanding the simulations and modelling queuing systems include great
deal of probability concepts, especially different types of probability distributions. One of the
important roles include generating random variables for simulations. Also, for modelling, bit of
programming is also helpful. This course used python for developing models which was explained
using additional hands-on exercises.
Simulations
Simulation is referred to the imitation of reality which is done to see what might happen under real
operating conditions. This can be seen as the collection of methods to mimic behaviour of some real
system, state of affairs, or process. Purpose of simulation can be either to understand the behaviour
of some complex system using computer simulations to evolve various strategies for the operation
of that system.
For managers, simulation can help in decision making in different aspects of the organization.
Simulations are used to try out different scenarios and to predict what effects the particular set of
actions can have. Such actions can include various aspects related to organization that are necessary
for its growth and sustenance, such as exploring and forecasting the likely events that can affect the
profitability, improving employee performance by training them for complex business environment,
among others.
Various softwares can be used to model simulations and the results can be studied using charts and
other visualizations. Programming languages are often used to build models and then they are tested
through past data validations. Then the output in real possible conditions is predicted by using those
models with real world parameters.
Generating random variables is one of the most important steps for simulations. This involves
generation of numerical values from corresponding probability distributions of the variable in
question. Simulation models containing components behaving randomly such as number of servicing
time values, demand size or interarrival times belonging to some probability distributions might
require random numbers and variables to enable the reproduction of irregular behaviour of system
elements. Generating random numbers and using them in simulation models reproduces this
irregular behaviour in a compressed form. Therefore, it is a must to have an effective and high-quality
way of generating values of random numbers and variables. Common methods for generating
random numbers are Inverse Transform Method and Accept Reject Method.
The course included different types of simulation models with special elaboration of Monte Carlo
Simulation and Dynamic System Simulation.
Monte Carlo Simulation: It is a model used to predict the range of possible outcomes and the
probabilities that can occur for any choice of action. This involves model building for possible results
through intervention of different set of random variables from the probability functions. The results
are calculated repeatedly with the use of different random values each time, producing distributions
of possible outcome values.
In management, such simulation in very useful for decision making in different fields like project
management, marketing analytics and consumer relationship management, finance and risk
management, among others. Few important applications discussed during the course include use of
Monte Carlo simulations for business planning, inventory planning, profit forecasting and Markov
chain simulations.
Dynamic System Simulation: This includes continuous simulation modelling using hypothesized
relations across activities and processes. Dynamic System models are very closely related to the
general systems approach and allow modelers to insert qualitative relationships. They mostly involve
differential equations to develop the model.
During the course, the applications of this simulation included Logistic model to simulate growth of
the Population. Also, SIR model (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) was used for epidemic modelling
with both the scenarios, with and without vaccination. Such applications find a great relevance in
today’s world, especially with global level coming up in recent years such as Covid-19. The Bass
Diffusion Model is very useful application in exploring new product adoption pattern and forecasting
market behaviour.
Queuing
Queuing theory is the study of movement through a line, especially waiting lines. It examines
different components of waiting in line which can include the arrival process, service process, number
of servers, number of system places, and the number of customers which might be people, data
packets, or anything else. Real-life applications of queuing may involve problem solving such as
providing faster customer service, increase traffic flow, improve order shipments through a
warehouse, or design data networks and call centres. Study of queues is also important because
longer waiting time is often not desirable and can have serious consequences for any business.
Queueing models are helpful in determining how to operate queuing system in the most effective
way. This generally involves a trade-off between costs and waiting time. The parameters used in
queuing models include arrivals, service and departure process, number of servers, queuing discipline
(such as first-in, first-out), queue capacity, and the number of customers. Service time in models is
assumed to be from probability distributions like exponential, deterministic, etc.
The various models studied during the course included M/M/1 model, M/M/s model, M/M/infinity
model and M/G/1 model. Simulating these models using python programming can help in designing
an effective queuing system which was effectively explained during the course through additional
python hand-on exercises.

Conclusion
Simulation and Queuing models are very important part of businesses in real world as they provide
us with in-depth understanding of system behaviour in different possible scenarios, enabling the
managers to better forecast business related strategic implications and take better decisions. This
especially comes handy in times of uncertainties to make accurate predictions for likely outcomes in
different scenarios when any particular action in taken by the organizations.