Activity Description Exp.

Time (Days) Deviation Probability

A Write program 5 +2 0.1
B Debug program 2 +1 0.2
C White user manual 3 0 0.3
-1 0.4

Deviation Probability Cumulative Random Number Probability

2 0.1 0.1 0-09 0.1
1 0.2 0.3 10-29 0.2
0 0.3 0.6 30-59 0.3
-1 0.4 1 60-99 0.4

Simulation Random Number Activity A Days Random Number Activity B Days

1 21 6 11 3
2 9 7 63 1
3 5 7 59 2
4 71 4 30 2
5 79 4 62 1
6 37 5 99 1
7 68 4 58 2
8 63 4 93 1
9 6 7 76 1
10 60 4 87 1

Project Completion Within 10 Days 7

Probability Of Project Completing Within 10 Days 0.7
 Tag Expected Days (Act. A)Expected Days (Act. B)Expected Days (Act. C)
0 7 4 5
10 6 3 4
30 5 2 3
60 4 1 2

Random Number Activity C Days Project Completion

9 5 14
58 3 11
83 2 11
92 2 8
36 3 8
67 2 8
73 2 8
55 3 8
83 2 10
45 3 8