Manajemen Resiko di Proyek

Dr. Budi Hartono

 Agenda
• Resiko?
• Pengelolaan Resiko – analogi
• Standar

• Keandalan / reliability?
• Analisis keandalan?

• Motivation
 Resiko
- definisi
- konsep praktis
 Pengelolaan Resiko
• analogi

Major Steps:
1. Identify
2. Asses / analyze
3. Plan Response
4. Execute & monitor
IEC/FDIS 31010
Keterangan dari Risk Register

Probability (P) Impact (I)

1 = Sangat Jarang 1 = Rendah (low)
2 = Jarang 2 = Moderate (Sedang)
3 = Mungkin 3 = Tinggi (High)
4 = Sering 4 = Sangat Tinggi (Very High)

I1 I2 I3 I4
Remarks:
A : Risiko harus dihindari atau level risiko dikurangi
P1 E E D C B : Risiko semestinya dihindari atau level risiko
dikurangi
P2 E D C B C : Risiko perlu dikontrol
P3 D C B A D : Risiko hanya perlu dikontrol jika
memungkinkan untuk dikontrol
P4 C B A A E :Tak perlu ada kontrol terhadap risiko
PMBOK
1. Plan Risk Management
2. Identify Risk
2. Analysis Risk
• qualitative
• quantitative

Monte Carlo
Monte Carlo
• quantitative
• IEC/FDIS 31010
• International Standard on Risk management
— Risk assessment techniques
4. Execute, Monitor and Control
The Risk of Doing Risk Analysis
68%

16%

84%
32%

Predictably irrational, Dan Ariely

 Ebbinghaus’ illusion

“why everything is relative-even it shouldn’t be” –

Dan Ariely
Cognition

awareness, perception, reasoning, and judgment

Cognition\, n. 1. The mental process of knowing, including aspects
such as awareness, perception, reasoning, and judgment. 2. That
which comes to be known, as through perception, reasoning, or
intuition; knowledge.
American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language
Cognition
Case Study