India Economic

COVID-19 Monitor
March 2021 Update
COVID-19
Executive Summary
India's GDP witnessed a 0.4% YoY growth in Oct-Dec'20 quarter vs. ~7% & ~24% contraction respectively in the previous two quarters. Both
private & government consumption improved vs. previous quarter. Gross capital formation saw positive YoY growth after 4 quarters &
industrial sector saw positive YoY growth after 5 quarters. In Feb'21- Merchandize trade continued to witness positive YoY growth; Auto
sales, insurance premium grew vs. last year levels; Logistics (except passenger traffic), GST collections continued to witness an uptick vs.
last year levels; GDP projections saw an upward revision at 6-10% YoY contraction for this financial year.

Trends across key economic indicators

• Industrial Activity: Daily avg. power consumption continued to witness a 3% YoY growth in Feb'21; fuel consumption YoY gap widened to -5% in Feb'21
compared to -4% YoY in Jan'21; Index of Industrial Production dipped to -2% YoY after witnessing YoY growth in Dec'20
• Trade: In Feb'21, Merchandize exports & imports continued to witness YoY growth (1% & 7%); Services export & import YoY gap widened in Jan'21
• Logistics: FASTag transactions increased by 7% again in Feb'21 vs. Jan'21; E-way bills grew at 12% YoY in Feb'21 vs. 10% YoY growth in Jan'21; JNPT traffic
continued to grow YoY in Feb'21 (at 11% YoY vs. 9% YoY in Jan'21); Air & rail passenger traffic improved in Jan-Feb'21 vs. previous months, however still
significantly far from pre-COVID levels
• Financial Services: Aggregate deposits & bank credit improved vs. previous months; YoY growth rate improved in the last week of Feb'21 vs. previous weeks;

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Value of UPI transactions witnessed 90%+ YoY growth, reaching INR 4.25 Tn in Feb'21
• Sector-wise Impact: PVs, 2W & tractor sales continued to grow YoY in Feb'21 (PV sales grew 3%, 2W sales grew 12%, tractor sales grew 30% YoY), 3W sales YoY
gap improved to 18% de-growth (vs. 36% de-growth in Jan'21); Fertilizer sales continued to see a contraction vs. last year levels, though YoY gap improved in
Feb'21 (to 1% de-growth); Both Life and Non-life insurance premium observed a favorable uptick vs. last year levels in Feb'21
• Macroeconomic Indicators: GST collections continued to grow vs. last year for the 6th month in Feb'21, remaining above the INR 1 Tn mark; MGNREGA work
demand & employment trended at ~20%+YoY levels, lower than YoY growth of previous months
• Sentiment: Urban consumer sentiment remained the same while rural marginally improved in Feb'21 vs. Jan'21, rural sentiment remained better than urban
sentiment; Both Manufacturing & Services PMI remained beyond the 50-point mark in Feb'21 (57.5 & 55.3 respectively), Services PMI witnessed an
appreciable growth vs. previous months; Improvement in value of stock market transactions in Feb'21 vs. previous months & last year; Mutual funds AUM
continued to grow vs. last year levels in Feb'21

Source: MoHFW, POSOCO, MOSPI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, RBI, GST Network, NPCI, NETC, Ministry of Railways, AAI, JNPT, AIOCD, mFMS, Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of 1
Steel, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, SIAM, CMIE, IRDAI, Ministry of Finance, GST Council, Ministry of Rural Development, Analyst reports, BCG analysis
 COVID-19 cases in India on a continuous rise in Feb-Mar’21 with an increase in
active case count in Mar'21
Data as of 20 Mar
Deaths Recovered Active cases
Total cases
1.0x 1.1x
12,000,000 1.0x
1.1x
10,000,000 1.2x
1.4.x
8,000,000
1.8x
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20-
Jul Aug Sep 0ct- Nov Dec Jan Feb Ma
20 r

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Total cases 2.9M 5.4M 7.6M 9M 10M 10.6M 10.9M 11.5M

Active cases 690k 1M 739k 442k 302k 189k 142k 306k

Days Doubling Rate 29 34 88 186 282 518 626 232

Recovery Rate 74.3% 80.1% 88.8% 93.6% 95.5% 96.7% 97.2% 95.9%

Test Positivity Rate 8.7% 8.5% 7.9% 6.9% 6.2% 5.6% 5.2% 5.0%

Fatality Rate 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW); covid19india.org; BCG analysis 2
 Summary: Feb'21 trends continued to show improvement across select
indicators, with most indicators exceeding last year levels
2020 2021 2020 2021

Indicator Unit Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Indicator Unit Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
1 Industrial Activity 5 Sector-wise Impact
Power Consumption MU -10% 3% 10% 4% 5% 5% 3% Cement Production MT -25% -4% 3% -7% -7% -6% NA
Steel Sales MT -23% -1% 1% 23% 18% 13% NA
Petroleum Consumption MT -18% -4% 2% -3% -2% -4% -5%
Passenger Vehicle Sales k -50% 13% 9% -3% 7% 2% 3%
Index of Industrial Prod. Index -19% 1% 5% -2% 2% -2% NA
Tractor Sales k -50% 27% 9% 48% 41% 48% 30%
2 Trade Two-wheeler Sales k -36% 11% 18% 13% 11% 10% 12%
Services Export USD 1% -1% -6% -5% -6% -10% NA Fertilizer Sales MT 18% -11% 9% -10% -14% -5% -1%
Services Import USD -2% -9% -12% -12% -8% -16% NA Gross Premium (Life) INR -32% 26% 32% -27% -3% 4% 21%
Merchandize Export USD -35% 6% -5% -9% -1% 6% 1% Gross Premium (Non-Life) INR -11% -4% -0.4% 3% 12% 7% 14%
Merchandize Import USD -29% -20% -12% -13% 8% 2% 7% Pharma. Sales INR 9% 5% 10% 1% 9% 5% 12%
Chemical Production Index Index -2% 0% 3% 5% 5% NA NA
3 Logistics
6 Macroeconomic Indicators
E-Way Bills Generated Mn -26% 9% 21% 8% 16% 10% 12%

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Total GST Collection INR -8% 4% 10% 1% 12% 8% 8%
Railway Freight Originated MT -14% 16% 15% 9% 9% 9% NA Central Govt. Expenditure INR Tn 2.2 2.3 1.8 2.4 3.7 2.4 NA
JNPT Container Traffic TEUs -13% -5% 5% 8% 10% 9% 11% MGNREGA Jobs Demand HHs 2% 71% 89% 50% 56% 39% 29%
Air Freight kT -32% -16% -14% -13% -9% -11% NA MGNREGA Jobs Provided HHs -1% 65% 83% 47% 47% 32% 19%
Air Passenger Traffic Mn -38% -70% -62% -57% -50% -47% NA No. of Tenders Announced k -4% 110% 201% 127% 253% 68% 54%
Rail Passengers Booked Mn -39% -94% -91% -83% -73% -67% -57% FDI Inflow USD Bn 4.9 4.1 5.1 6.8 7.3 NA NA
FII USD Bn -15.0 1.4 3.0 9.8 8.6 NA NA
4 Financial Services
7 Sentiment
UPI Transactions Mn 24% 104% 102% 107% 105% 99% 91%
India VIX Index 64.4 19.5 24.8 19.8 21.1 25.3 28.1
Total Bank Credit INR 6.1% 5.2% 5.4% 5.8% 5.9% 6.3% 6.6% PMI (Manufacturing) Index 51.8 56.8 58.9 56.3 56.4 57.7 57.5
Total Bank Deposits INR 8.5% 11.3% 10.3% 10.8% 11.3% 11.3% 11.9% PMI (Services) Index 49.3 49.8 54.1 53.7 52.3 52.8 55.3
Data for 2020; YoY growth represented for all indicators (except for India VIX, PMI, Central govt. expenditure, FDI, and FII where absolute values are represented)
3
Source: POSOCO, PPAC, MoSPI, RBI, Ministry of Comm. and Industry, GST Network, Ministry of Railways, JNPT, AAI, NPCI, JPC, Ministry of Steel, SIAM, CMIE, mFMS, IRDAI, AIOCD, American
Chemistry Council, GST Council, Ministry of Finance, Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Rural Development, Projects Today, Bloomberg, NSE, BSE, IHS Markit, BCG analysis
 1

2
Economic Indicators

GDP Deep-Dive

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 1
Power consumption continued to grow & fuel consumption continued to INDUSTRIAL
dip YoY in Feb'21; IIP dipped YoY in Jan'21, after growing YoY in Dec'20 ACTIVITY

Daily Average Power Consumption IIP1 (Index of Industrial Production) & Consumption of Petroleum Products
Volume ('000s MUs) ICI2 (Index of Core Industries)3 (in MMT)4
3.9 4.0 3.8
4 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 150 136 138
17.8 17.9 18.6 18.0 17.2
133 20
3.4 127 127
3.2 3.2 3.3 117 116
123 120 121
108
130
137 135 15.4 16.1 15.6 15.5 15.5
3 124 126
15
118 117
100 81 108

2 90
10 9.4
3.7 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.7
3.3 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.6
54
2.8 50
1 5

0 0 0

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May-20

May-20
Aug-20

Aug-20
Jul-20

Sep-20

Jan-21
Feb-21

Jan-21

Feb-21
Jul-20

Sep-20
Nov-20
Dec-20

Nov-20
Dec-20
Jun-20

Jun-20
Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-20

Oct-20
May-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Jan-21
Jul-20

Nov-20
Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20
2019-20 2020-21 IIP ICI
IIP
YoY -25% -16% -10% -3% -2% 3% 10% 4% 5% 5% 3% YoY -19% -57% -33% -17% -11% -7% 1% 5% -2% 2% -2% -49% -20% -9% -13% -16% -4% 2% -3% -2% -4% -5%
growth growth

1. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shows the growth rates in different industry groups (comprises of Mfg. (78% weightage), Mining (14%), Electricity (8%))
2. Index of Core Industries (ICI) measures performance of production in 8 core industries (Coal, Crude, NG, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement & Electricity)
3. In view of the effect of the containment measures for COVID-19 pandemic, the indices for Apr-20 & May-20 are not comparable with preceding months 5
4. Petroleum products include LPG, Naphtha, MS, ATF, SKO, HSD, LDO, Lubricants & Greases, FO & LSHS, Bitumen, coke as reported (provisional) by Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell
Source: Power System Operation Corporation, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Dept. for Promotion of Industry & Internal Trade, PPAC, BCG analysis
2
Merchandize trade continued to improve, registering YoY growth in MERCHANDIZE &
Feb'21; Services import & export YoY gap widened in Jan'21 vs. Dec'20 SERVICES TRADE

Merchandize Trade (USD Bn) Services Trade (USD Bn)

42.6 42.0 40.5
27.6 33.6 33.4
31.2 21.9 30.3 18.7
29.5 18.2
22.2 23.6 28.5 26.9 27.5 27.9 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.0 16.4 17.3 16.6 17.1 17.1
24.9 23.5
21.4 19.1 21.1 22.7
17.1 11.1 11.5
9.3 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.6 10.1 9.5 10.1 10.1
10.3

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Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-211 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Merchandize Exports Merchandize Imports Services Exports Services Imports

Exports -35% -60% -36% -12% -10% -13% 6% -5% -9% -1% 6% 1% 1% -9% -10% -8% -11% -10% -1% -6% -5% -6% -10%
YoY growth

Imports
-29% -60% -52% -48% -28% -26% -20% -12% -13% 8% 2% 7% -2% -18% -20% -15% -22% -20% -9% -12% -12% -8% -16%
YoY growth

1. Feb'21 Merchandize Import & Export numbers, Jan'21 Service Import & Export numbers are provisional as provided by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on 15th Mar'21 6
Source: RBI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, BCG analysis
3
E-way bill & FASTag transaction volumes continued to grow in Feb'21; LOGISTICS
Rail freight continued to grow vs. last year & previous months in Jan'21

E-way bills1 generated FASTag transaction Railway freight traffic

(Mn) volume (Mn) originating (Mn Tons)
+2%
+1%
70 180 +7%
64.1 64.2 62.9 63.8 120
60 57.4 57.7
150
50 48.4 49.4 90
43.4 120
40.7
40
90 60
30 159 118.3119.8
25.5 108.3110.1
138 149 103.1
93.6 95.2 94.6
102.3
60 122 125 82.6
20 110
97

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85 82 87 30 65.4
10 8.6 30 55
10
0 0 0
May-20

Aug-20

Feb-21
Jul-20

Sep-20

Jan-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Oct-20

May-20

Aug-20
Sep-20

Jan-21
Feb-21
Jul-20

Nov-20
Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Oct-20

May-20

Aug-20
Jul-20

Sep-20

Jan-21
Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20
YoY MoM YoY
-26% -84% -53% 18% -7% -4% 9% 21% 8% 16% 10% 12% -23% 437% 48% 6% 12% 14% 11% 2% 11% 7% 7% -14% -35% -21% -8% -5% 4% 16% 15% 9% 9% 9%
growth growth growth

1. E-Way bills are required to be generated at the time of transport of goods by every registered person if the value of the consignment exceeds INR 50,000; 2. FASTAg as per announcement by
NHAI 7
Source: GST Network, NHAI, NPCI, Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, BCG analysis
3
JNPT traffic continued to improve YoY in Feb'21; Air Freight traffic LOGISTICS
dipped in Jan'21 vs. Dec'20 levels & remained below last year levels

JNPT Container Traffic ('000s TEUs1) Air Freight (k Tons)

Domestic International

500
450 270 259 258
239 244 245
400 240
210 204
350 210 192 111 107
95 101 102
300 180 163
77 76
250 150 69
460 465 462 56
200 410 423 414 120
380 95
344 353

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150 284 275 289 90 19
133 144 148 142 150 144
100 60 47 123 128
7 76 107
50 30
40
0 0

May-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Jan-21
Jul-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20
May-20

Aug-20
Jul-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Feb-21
Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20

YoY -13% -37% -39% -29% -20% -19% -5% 5% 8% 10% 9% 11% YoY -32% -83% -68% -40% -34% -30% -16% -14% -13% -9% -11%
growth growth

1. TEU refers to Twenty-foot equivalent unit equivalent to 20 shipping containers (20 feet long, 8 feet tall) 8
Source: Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis
3
Air & rail passenger traffic continued to improve vs. Apr-Dec'20 levels, LOGISTICS
though still significantly below last year levels

Air Passengers (Mn) Railway Passenger Bookings (Mn)

30
450 436
400
350
18 Negative volume
16 17 300 288
represents net higher
14 250 refunds as compared to 239
11 new bookings in that 190
200
15 8 15 month
6 14 150 122
13
4 5 10 100

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8 62
0 1 4 6 39
4 50 15 22
3 1 1 1 2 4
0 00 01 0 1 1 1
0
-8 -4
May-20

Aug-20
Jul-20

Sep-20

Jan-21
Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20

-50

May-20

Aug-20
Jul-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Feb-21
Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20
Domestic International

YoY
growth -38% -100% -98% -85% -84% -79% -70% -62% -57% -50% -47% -39% -101% -101% -100% -98% -97% -94% -91% -83% -73% -67% -57%

9
Source: Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis
4
Aggregate deposits & bank credit, and their YoY growth rate grew in the FINANCIAL
last week of Feb'21 vs. previous weeks SERVICES

Total deposits value & YoY growth Total credit outstanding value & YoY growth
aggregated for all banks aggregated for all banks
Bank deposits (INR Tn) YoY growth (%) Bank credit (INR Tn) YoY growth (%)

107.75
107.05

107.04
106.96

106.43
150 15 15

105.50
105.05
12.0 12.1

104.35
11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.1 11.8

104.19
10.8 10.9

103.43

103.39
10.5 10.5 10.1 105

102.72
102.28
145 10 10
102

149.34
6.6 6.4 6.6 6.6
6.1

147.98
5.9

147.81
147.18 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.7

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5.3 5.2 5.1
142.62

143.02

142.92

143.70

145.83

144.83

146.25
144.03

5 5
140
3
11-Sep 142.48

0 0 0 0
01-Jan

15-Jan

29-Jan
04-Dec

18-Dec
25-Sep

12-Feb

26-Feb
06-Nov
09-Oct

20-Nov
23-Oct

01-Jan

15-Jan

29-Jan
04-Dec

18-Dec
11-Sep

25-Sep

12-Feb

26-Feb
06-Nov

20-Nov
09-Oct

23-Oct
YoY growth Aggregate bank deposits YoY growth Aggregate bank credit

10
Source: RBI DBIE, Press search, BCG analysis
4
Value of UPI transactions continued to grow YoY in Feb'21, FINANCIAL
witnessing 90%+ growth vs. previous year levels SERVICES

Value of transactions in INR Tn

4.5 4.31 4.25
4.16
3.86 3.91
3.6 YoY%
3.29
2.91 2.98 +91%
2.7 2.62
2.23 2.18
2.06
1.8 1.51

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0.9

0.0
Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

Volume of 1.33 1.25 1.00 1.23 1.34 1.50 1.61 1.80 2.07 2.21 2.23 2.30 2.29
Txn in Bn.

Source: NPCI 11
5
Consumption of steel continued to grow in Jan'21 vs. last year; Cement SECTOR-WISE
production YoY gap improved in Jan'21 vs. Nov-Dec'20 IMPACT

Consumption of Long Steel Consumption of Flat Steel Cement Production

(in MMT) (in MMT) (in MT)

6 6 30

4 4 20

5.7 5.5 29.6

5.2 26.4 27.025.328.3
4.9 24.8 24.2 24.2
4.1 4.5 4.7 4.5 2 4.4 4.4 4.5 22.4 20.9
2 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.8 10
3.5

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3.2
2.0 2.1 2.5
0.4
0.6 4.3
0 0 0

May-20

Aug-20
Sep-20

Jan-21
Jul-20

Nov-20
Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Oct-20
May-20

Aug-20

Sep-20
Jul-20

Jan-21
Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20

May-20

Aug-20
Jul-20

Sep-20

Jan-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Oct-20
Long Steel Consumption Flat Steel Consumption Cement Production
YoY -5% -90% -56% -15% -12% -10% 6% -3% 34% 18% 22% -38% -51% -43% -6% -5% -7% 4% 12% 19% 4% -25% -85% -21% -7% -14% -15% -4% 3% -7% -7% -6%
growth

Source: Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Livemint, CMIE, BCG Analysis 12
5
Passenger vehicle, 2W & tractor sales continued to grow vs. last year SECTOR-WISE
levels while 3W sales continued to dip in Feb'21 vs. last year IMPACT

Passenger vehicles sales ('000 units) Two-wheeler sales ('0000 units)

307
306

165

161
360

242
240
351

327

218
323
322

317
314
311
311

310
305

205
303

202

196
195
289

193
286

188
276

184
182

182

182
181

179
266

259

171
254

169
251

150
146
217

135
181

121
109
130

38
49

5
4

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
YoY
growth -50% -99% -83% -51% -14% -2% 13% 9% -3% 7% 2% 3% -36% -98% -81% -38% -20% 0.2% 11% 18% 13% 11% 10% 12%

Tractor sales ('000 units) Three-wheeler sales ('000 units)

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115
124

112
111
116

106
114

105

104

104

84
98
96

95
92

92
99

91
92

59
90

88

65
85
82

69

69
73

67
72
71

71

61

61

61
65
65
62

60

54
54
57

54
52

51
44

36
35

33
20
12

7
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

YoY -50% -80% 1% 20% 36% 65% 27% 9% 48% 41% 48% 30% -53% -92% -78% -61% -66% -48% -45% -39% -41% -35% -36% -18%
growth

2019 2020 2021

Figures represent wholesale numbers (including exports).
1. Tata Motors data is available for Apr-June only, BMW, Mercedes and Volvo Auto data is not available 13
Source: SIAM, CMIE, Press search, BCG analysis
5
Pharma sales continued to grow vs. last year in Feb'21; Fertilizer sales SECTOR-WISE
YoY gap improved on Feb'21 IMPACT

Pharmaceutical Sales Fertilizer Sales Indian Chemical Production

(INR k Cr – Moving Annual Total) (in LMT) Index1 (3mo. moving avg.)

92
142 142 142 142 143 144 144 145 146 146 121 123
115 113 117 118
74 98 103
69 69 66
61 85 87

47 49 46
40

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May-20

May-20

May-20
Aug-20

Aug-20
Sep-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Aug-20
Jul-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Sep-20
Jul-20
Nov-20

Dec-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20

Jun-20

Jun-20
Oct-20

Oct-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20
YoY -2% -16% -27% -26% -12% -4% 0% 3% 5% 5%
-9% 2% 0.2% -2% 5% 10% 1% 9% 5% 12% 98% 79% 34% -9% -11% 9% -10% -14% -5% -1%
growth

1. Indian Chemical Production Index refers to a 3-month moving average figure for chemicals production with figure for 2012 as base figure (100) 14
Source: AIOCD (Annual Total MAT), American Chemistry Council, Mobile Based Fertilizer Management System (mFMS), Press search, BCG analysis
5
Both Life and Non-life insurance premium observed a significant uptick SECTOR-WISE
vs. last year levels in Feb'21 IMPACT

Life Insurance premium observed 21% YoY growth in Feb'21 Non-Life1 Insurance premium grew 14% YoY in Feb'21

Premium (INR Cr.) Premium (INR Cr.)

+21%
26,221 +14%
25,080 24,383
22,776
20,623 21,390 22,425 17,936 18,488
17,334
18,533 19,159
17,272 15,922 16,049 15,855 15,767
14,586 14,981
13,806

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19%

Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21
Number of
policies 2237 4018 2648 4691 1776 2087 2111 3022 3187 2908
(‘000)
YoY growth -7% -47% 14% -32% 64% Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21
rate for no.
of policies

1. Non-Life Insurance includes Fire, Marine, Motor, Engineering, Health, Cop Insurance, Credit Guarantee, Aviation, Personnel accident and Miscellaneous
15
Source: IRDAI, BCG Analysis
6
Central Govt.'s revenue & expenditure continued to increase YoY in MACROECONOMIC
Jan'21; GST collections continued to hit INR 1 Tn+ in Feb'21 INDICATORS

Central Govt. Revenue & Expenditure (INR Tn) Total GST Collections3 (INR Tn)
(based on data from Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Finance) (based on data from GST Council)

1.20
Expenditure & Receipts (INR Tn)

1.2 1.15

Total GST Collections (INR Tn)

10 3 1.13

Gross Fiscal Deficit (INR Tn)

1.05 1.05
0.98 0.95
2.8 1.0 0.91 0.87
8 2 0.86
1.9 2.0 0.8
6 1.6 1 0.62
1.2
1.8 3.7 0.8 2.9 0.8 0.6
4 3.2 3.1 3.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0
2.2 2.4 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 0.4 0.32
2.0 1.9 1.6 -1
2 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.2
0.8

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

-1.0 0.3 0.2 0.2
0 -2
0.0
Aug-20

Dec-20
Nov-20

Jan-21
Jun-20

Jul-20
Mar-20

Oct-20
Apr-20

May-20

Sep-20

Aug-20

Dec-20
Jun-20

Jul-20

Nov-20

Jan-21
Mar-20

Oct-20
Apr-20

May-20

Sep-20

Feb-21
Expenditure 80% 21% -21% 46% 6% -15% -26% 9% 48% 29% 49%
YoY growth

Revenue YoY -8% -72% -38% -9% -15% -12% 4% 10% 1% 12% 8% 8%
-2% -72% -64% -24% -28% -35% -13% 47% 58% 76% 54% growth
YoY growth

Total Expenditure Non-Debt Receipts Gross Fiscal Deficit2

1. Bloomberg Quint 2. Gross Fiscal Deficit is the difference between the total Non-Debt Receipts of the government (revenue receipts and non-debt capital
receipts) and Total expenditure 3. GST Collections include all components: CGST, SGST, IGST, Cess 16
Source: Ministry of Finance, GST Council, BCG analysis
6
Count of tenders announced by Central & State Govts. continued to MACROECONOMIC
grow YoY while the value of tenders dipped YoY in Feb'21 INDICATORS

Count of tenders announced by central & Value of tenders announced by central & state
state govts (k) govts (INR Tn)

4.2
4.6 0.87 0.92
3.6 3.8 0.74
3.6
3.3 0.65 0.60
2.8 2.9 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.60
2.7 0.52

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

2.5 0.46 0.50 0.48
2.1 0.44
1.8 1.7
0.8
May-20

May-20
Aug-20

Aug-20
Jan-20

Feb-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Jan-20

Feb-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Feb-21
Jul-20
Nov-20

Dec-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20

Jun-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20
YoY -5% -10% -4% 7% 17% 29% 125% 80% 110% 201% 127% 253% 68% 54% -42% -53% -49% 244% 54% 55% 123% -20% 43% 88% 28% 52% 42% -6%
growth

Source: Project Today database, BCG analysis 17

6
MGNREGA work demand & employment YoY growth dipped in Feb'21 vs. MACROECONOMIC
previous months INDICATORS

50
40
Work Demand 30
20 45
(households, in Mn) 37 32 27 26 29
10 21 24 24 24 23
13
0
Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21
YoY
Growth 2% -37% 49% 74% 74% 67% 71% 89% 50% 56% 39% 29%

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

40
30
Employment Provided
20 39
(households, in Mn) 33 28
10 20 20 20 18 21 21 22
16 11
0
Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21
YoY
Growth -1% -35% 56% 80% 83% 63% 65% 83% 48% 47% 32% 19%

MGNREGA refers to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act 18

Source: Ministry of Labor & Employment, Ministry of Rural Development, The Indian Express, Outlook India, LiveMint, BCG analysis
6
Organized sector hiring & joining activity improved in Jan-Feb'21 vs. MACROECONOMIC
Dec'20 (based on select indicators) INDICATORS

Net new EPF subscribers improved to ~1.3+ Mn in Jan'21,

Naukri Jobspeak Index improved in Feb'21
higher than last year & previous month levels

Naukri Jobspeak Index Net new EPF Subscriber (in Mn)

2,500 2,356 1.5

1,954 1,972 1,925

2,000 1,755 1,759 1,727 1.0
1,413
1,500 1,263 1.34
1,208 1.26
0.5 1.08 1.00 2019
951 0.81 0.93 0.83
910 0.69 0.77 0.79
0.67
1,000 0.57 0.50 0.62 0.54 0.54 0.64 2020
0.31 0.34
0.17 2021
0.0

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

500 -0.26 -0.25

0 -0.5

Aug’20

Nov’20
Oct-20
Apr-20

May-20

Jul’20
Sep-20

Feb-21
Aug-20

Dec-20
Nov-20

Jan-21
Mar-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Oct’20

Dec’20
Mar’20

Apr’20

Sep’20
May’20

Jun’20

Jan’21
Naukri Jobspeak Index Net New EPF Subscriber Trend
Monthly index which calculates and records hiring activity based on newly added Net new EPF subscribers are net of the members newly enrolled, exited and rejoined
job listings on Naukri.com every month during the month as per records of the EPFO
Jobs analyzed for the monthly index are qualified on the basis of white-collar Employees in an establishment3 drawing less than INR 15,000 per month are
jobs belonging to the organized corporate sector mandated to become members of the EPF upon joining
1. Jan-20 level considered as pre-COVID-19 level 2. Active members refers to total contributing members during last one year as published on EPFO dashboard as on 21-Sep-20; 3. Covers every
establishment in which 20+ people are employed and certain organizations are covered, subject to certain conditions and exemptions even if they employ less than 20 persons each 4. Net EPF
19
additions are revised monthly as per the EPFO data
Source: Ministry of Labor and Employment, InfoEdge, Naukri.com, BCG analysis
6
WPI rose from 2.03% to 4.17% while CPI rose to 5.03% in Feb'21 MACROECONOMIC
INDICATORS

Monthly inflation rate (%)

Wholesale Price Index (WPI)2 Consumer Price Index (CPI)1

10 8 7.6 7.6
7.4 7.2 7.3
6.9
6.7 6.7
6.6
6.2
5.8
6 5.5
6.3 5.0
5 4.2
3.5 4.6 4.6
3.1 2.8 2.8 4.0 4.1
2.0 2.3 2.0
3.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.2 4
2.9 1.2 1.2 3.1 3.3
0.6 3.0
0.3 0.4 0.2 2.9

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

0.0 2.6
-0.6
0 3.0
3.2
-1.6 -1.8
2
-3.4

-5 0
Oct-20
Oct-19

Oct-19

Oct-20
Apr-19

Apr-19

Apr-20
May-19

Apr-20
May-20
Feb-19

Feb-20

Sep-20

May-19

May-20
Aug-19
Sep-19

Feb-21

Feb-19

Sep-19

Feb-20

Sep-20

Feb-21
Dec-19

Aug-20
Jan-20

Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21

Aug-19

Dec-19

Aug-20

Dec-20
Nov-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Nov-20

Jan-21
Jun-19
Jul-19
Mar-19

Mar-20

Jun-20
Jul-20

Mar-19

Jun-19
Jul-19

Mar-20

Jun-20
Jul-20
1. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is
calculated as year on year increase in prices of the commodities 2. The wholesale price index (WPI) measures and tracks the changes in the price of goods in the stages before the retail level –
that is, goods that are sold in bulk and traded between entities or businesses instead of consumers. It is calculated as year on year increase in prices of the commodities
Note: In May 2016, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act, 1934 was amended to provide a statutory basis for the implementation of the flexible inflation targeting framework. 20
Source: BCG Analysis. DPIIT, MOSPI, Office of the Economic Advisor - Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade,CMIE
6
Feb'21 repo and reverse repo rate remained at the same levels; base MACROECONOMIC
rate marginally dipped vs. Jan'21 INDICATORS

Reserve bank’s policy rates (%) MCLR1 of scheduled commercial banks

(Median rate on one-year borrowings, in %)

MCLR (%)
Policy rate %
12
12

9 8.40
9 8.28
7.30

7.32
6
6 6.05

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

4.00
3.35
3
3

May-20

Aug-20
Jan-20

Feb-20

Sep-20

Jan-21
Jul-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20
May-20

Aug-20
Feb-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Feb-21
Jul-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20

Total Private Sector Banks

Base rate 2 Repo rate3 Reverse Repo rate4 Public Sector Banks Foreign Banks

Note: Feb'21 MCLR data has not been released.

1. MCLR: Minimum interest rate at which scheduled commercial banks can lend to customers (based on incremental cost of funds). Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate was introduced from April 2016 for
fixing interest rates, and replaced the former Base rate methodology (based on average cost of funds). 2. Base Rate: Minimum rate set by the Reserve Bank of India below which banks are not allowed to lend to its
customers 3. Repo Rate: Interest rate at which the RBI lends short term funds to licensed commercial banks 4. Reverse Repo Rate: Interest rate which the RBI borrows money from commercial banks 21
Source: CMIE, RBI DBIE
6
INR remained rangebound at ~73/dollar; Forex reserves reached ~585 MACROECONOMIC
USD Bn in the last week of Feb'21, after attaining ~590 Bn USD in Jan'21 INDICATORS

Exchange Rate (INR/USD) Forex reserves (USD Billion)

Forex reserves (USD Billion)

Exchange Rate (INR/USD)
80
590 584 584 584 585
568 573 575 575 579 579 581 581 585 586 584 585

75

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

73.89 73.81
73.45 73.29
73.07
72.73

70
3-Jan-21

7-Feb-21

1-Jan-21
8-Jan-21

5-Feb-21
10-Jan-21

17-Jan-21

24-Jan-21

31-Jan-21

14-Feb-21

21-Feb-21

28-Feb-21

15-Jan-21
22-Jan-21
29-Jan-21

12-Feb-21
19-Feb-21
26-Feb-21
6-Dec-20

6-Nov-20
29-Nov-20

13-Dec-20

20-Dec-20

27-Dec-20

13-Nov-20
20-Nov-20
27-Nov-20
4-Dec-20
11-Dec-20
18-Dec-20
25-Dec-20
22
Source: CMIE, RBI
6
MACROECONOMIC
India witnessed significant FDI in Jan-Dec'20 INDICATORS

Foreign Direct Investments1 ($ Bn) xx Annual (Calendar Year) FDI Inflows

$42 Bn $50 Bn $63.6 Bn

2018 2019 2020

18.7

7.6 6.8 7.3

5.5 4.6 5.5 4.1 5.5 6.2

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

3.1 3.2 3.0 2.8
4.7 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.2 4.7
2.8 3.0 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.9 4.3 4.1 5.1
2.3 2.5 1.6 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.1
Jan-18

May-18

Jul-18
Aug-18

Jan-19

Jul-19
Feb-18

Feb-19

May-19

Aug-19

Jan-20
Feb-20

May-20

Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Dec-202
Jun-18

Nov-18
Dec-18

Jun-19

Nov-19
Dec-19

Jun-20

Nov-20
Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20
Including Reliance-Jio Deals

1. Denotes total inward FDI to India; 2. Dec'20 figures are provisional

Source: CMIE 23
Note: Past period data may vary from the previous versions of the Economic Monitor owing to restating of previous years’ data by the CMIE/reporting agencies
6
Foreign Institutional Investments improved in Jun-Dec'20 albeit MACROECONOMIC
remained somber in 2020 vs. 2019 INDICATORS

Foreign Institutional Investments ($ Bn) xx Annual (Calendar Year) FIIs

-$11 Bn $26 Bn $15.4 Bn

2018 2019 2020

9.3 9.8 8.6

4.6 6.0 5.6
3.4 3.0 2.2 2.7 3.3 3.0
0.3 0.3
1.9 1.2 1.9 2.0 0.3 1.7 0.7 1.4

-0.5 -0.5 -1.8 -0.4

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

-1.4 -1.7 -2.1 -1.4 -1.5
-4.2 -4.9 -3.8
-3.2

-15.0
Jan-18
Feb-18

May-18

Jul-18
Aug-18

Jan-19
Feb-19

May-19

Jul-19
Aug-19

Jan-20
Feb-20

May-20

Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Dec-201
Jun-18

Nov-18
Dec-18

Jun-19

Nov-19
Dec-19

Jun-20

Nov-20
Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20
1. Dec'20 figures are provisional
Source: CMIE 24
Note: Past period data may vary from the previous versions of the Economic Monitor owing to restating of previous years’ data by the CMIE/reporting agencies
7
Services PMI saw an uptick vs. previous months, Manufacturing PMI saw SENTIMENT –
MFG. & SERVICES
a marginal dip vs. Jan'21 levels in Feb'21 PMI

Manufacturing PMI reached 57.5 in Feb'21, a slight dip Services PMI improved to 55.3 in Feb'21,
from the Jan'21 mark, though exceeding the global level compared to the 52.8 mark in Jan'21

Manufacturing PMI Services PMI

Possible Possible
58.9 expansion expansion
60 56.8 56.3 56.4 57.7 57.5 60
in the sector 54.1 53.7 52.3 52.8 55.3 in the sector
51.8 52.0
49.3 49.8
50 47.2 50 50 50
41.8
40 46.0 40 34.2
30.8 33.7
30 27.4 30

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Possible Possible
Manufacturing PMI contraction contraction
20 exceeded the global in the sector 20 in the sector
PMI levels of 53.9 in 12.6
Feb'21
10 10 5.4

0 0
Oct-20
Apr-20

May-20

Apr-20

May-20

Oct-20
Sep-20

Feb-21

Sep-20
Aug-20

Dec-20

Aug-20

Feb-21
Nov-20

Jan-21

Nov-20

Dec-20

Jan-21
Mar-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Mar-20

Jun-20

Jul-20
Note: The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing and services sectors. The PMI is based on a monthly survey of supply
chain managers across 19 industries, covering both upstream and downstream activity. Value >50 indicates possible expansion in the sector, and value <50 indicates recession. 25
Source: IHS Markit, CMIE, Analyst Reports, BCG analysis
7
Consumer sentiment still below pre-COVID levels; SENTIMENT-
CONSUMER
Rural sentiment remained better than urban sentiment in Feb'21 SENTIMENT

CMIE Consumer Sentiment Survey Rural Consumer Sentiment Index

150
Sample Size
• 1.74L households in 90 cities and 969 106
97
villages surveyed over 4 months 100
-46%
51 50 56 55 56 56 57
49 44 45 45
50
Methodology
• Longitudinal survey: Same set of
0
households surveyed in batches over

Oct’20
Apr’20

May’20
Feb’20

Sep’20

Feb’21
Aug’20

Nov’20

Dec’20

Jan’21
Jul’20
Mar’20

Jun’20
time
• Scoring based on 5 questions:
Urban Consumer Sentiment Index

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

– Perception of current well-being
– Expectations of future well-being 150
– Perceptions of current economic
conditions of the country 104 96
100
– Perceptions of prospective -52%
economic conditions of the 40 40 40 47 46 48 50 50
50 40 37 38
country
– Household's propensity to spend
on consumer durables 0

Aug’20

Nov’20
Jul’20
Feb’20

Feb’21
Oct’20
Mar’20

Apr’20

Dec’20
Sep’20
May’20

Jun’20

Jan’21
26
Source: CMIE Consumer Pyramids Survey
7
Majority of the sectors, especially Oil & Gas, telecom and consumer SENTIMENT – BSE
discretionary grew in Feb'21 vs. Mar'20 growth rates SECTORAL INDICES

Descending order of performance1

BSE Sectoral Indices
Change (%) Sector % Change
Oil and Gas 69.97%
80 Metal 61.25%
Consumer discretionary 56.93%
70
Telecom 56.51%
60 IT 55.44%
Bankex 48.61%
50 Power 48.30%
40 Finance 46.98%
Basic Materials 46.37%
30
CPSE 41.94%
20 Consumer Durables 40.72%
10 Energy 31.43%
TecK 31.22%
0

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

BSE 500 26.90%
-10 PSU 25.65%
FMCG 22.27%
-20
Realty 22.24%
-30 Utilities 19.47%
-40 Infra 18.16%
Industrials 17.92%
-50 Capital Goods 17.71%
02- 31- 30- 29- 30- 31- 31- 30- 30- 27- 31- 29- 26-
Healthcare 9.62%
Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
BSEAUTO Index 0.82%
2020 2021
1. Growth rate vs. 02-Mar-20
2. The S&P BSE TECk index comprises constituents of the S&P BSE 500 that are classified as members of the media & publishing, information technology & telecommunications sector
3. CPSE- Central Public Sector Enterprises 27
Source : BSE, Bloomberg, BCG analysis
7
Value of stock market transactions grew by 100%+ in Feb'21 vs. last year; SENTIMENT –
STOCK MKT.
Mutual fund AUM grew by 16% YoY in Feb'21 TRANSACTIONS

Stock Market Transactions (INR k Cr) Mutual Funds AUM2 (INR L Cr)
BSE NSE India VIX
2,000 80
35
Transaction Value ( INR) k Cr

31.6
30.0 31.0 30.5

India Volatility Index (VIX)1

64
145 30 27.1 27.5 26.9 28.2
1,500 104 60 25.5
110 80 71 99 25 23.9 24.5
93 22.3
70
58 20
1,000 82 34 65 40
44 30
1,627 15
1,351 1,349 1,283 1,223 1,337 1,375 1,449
500 1,006 906 1,000 29 1,099 28 20 10
25 23 25 25
20 20 21 5

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0 0 0

May-20

Aug-20
Jul-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Feb-21
Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20
May-20

Aug-20
Jul-20

Sep-20

Jan-21

Feb-21
Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20

BSE YoY -20% 21% 12% 135% 66% 83% 33% 2% 30% 128% 86% 160% -6% -3% -5% 5% 11% 8% 10% 7% 11% 17% 9% 16%

Mutual Funds AUM include investments from individuals (50.5%) & institutions
NSE YoY 44% 42% 27% 127% 89% 90% 72% 46% 60% 102% 80% 104%
(49.5%); institutions include domestic & foreign institutions and banks

1. Volatility Index is a measure of market’s expectation of volatility over the near term; India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY50 Index Option prices providing the expected market
volatility over the next 30 calendar days – figures represented are as of end of every month shown
2. Mutual funds Assets Under Management (AUM) represented as recorded at end of every month shown 28
Source: BSE, NSE, AMFI, BCG analysis
 2
1

GDP Deep-Dive
Economic Indicators

29

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

 COVID-19
Economy grew by 0.4% YoY in Oct-Dec'20, after two consecutive quarters of
YoY contraction
GDP
DEEP-DIVE

$2.2 $2.4 $2.6 $2.7 $2.9

trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion

Real GDP ($ Bn)

+3.3% +0.4%
800 752
+6.3% 755
728
700
642 685

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

592
600

500
Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct-
Dec’15 Dec’16 Dec’17 Dec’18 Dec’19 Dec’20

xx Overall size of economy at the end of FY

Note: Real GDP at 2011-12 base prices, converted from INR using 2011-12 exchange rates (Rs. 47.95); The numbers would differ from estimates from World Bank, IMF, etc. due to difference in
the base year (we use 2011-12)
Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis 30
Growth in gross investment and exports in Oct-Dec'20 improved vs.
COVID-19
Oct-Dec'19 levels
GDP
DEEP-DIVE

Quarterly Y C G I X M
growth % Govt. Gross
Pvt.
change YoY GDP Exports Imports
Consumption Consumption Investment

Oct-Dec
2019
3.3% 6.4% 8.9% -0.4% -5.4% -7.5%

Jan-Mar
2020
3.0% 2.0% 12.1% -0.7% -8.8% -2.7%

Apr-Jun
-24.4% -26.3% 12.8% -46.9% -22.0% -41.1%

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

2020

Jul-Sep
-7.4% -11.3% -24.0% -7.8% -2.1% -18.2%
2020

Oct-Dec
0.4% -2.4% -1.1% 2.1% -4.6% -4.6%
2020

Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis

Note: Highlighted circles represents growth (green) or decline (yellow) compared to the previous year quarter (Oct-Dec'20 vs Oct-Dec'19) 31
Share of private consumption and investments in GDP increased in the
COVID-19
Oct-Dec'20 quarter vs. previous quarter
GDP
DEEP-DIVE

11.0% 0.3%
5.1% 1.0% 1.4% 2.5% 0.8% 4.7% 1.1% 1.7%
0.1%
11.4% 11.6% 9.4% 12.2% 10.0% 1.3% 9.8%
8.3% 8.5% 9.3% 10.0%
16.4%

35.6% 36.9% 34.4% 34.9%

35.0% 35.4% 35.2% 34.9% 34.0% 33.6% 33.8%
25.9% After witnessing
growth in the first
two quarters of
FY21, net exports
slipped into
55.1% 55.6% 55.7% 58.5% 55.4% 56.8% 56.7% 60.2% 54.9% 55.3% 54.3% 58.6% negative territory

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

-3.6% -3.4% -4.0% -3.4%
-0.1% -1.3% -4.8% -3.6% -2.6% -2.5% -2.5%
-1.9% -0.8%
Jan-Mar’18 Apr-Jun’18 Jul-Sep’18 Oct-Dec’18 Jan-Mar’19 Apr-Jun’19 Jul-Sep’19 Oct-Dec’19 Jan-Mar’20 Apr-Jun’20 Jul-Sep’20 Oct-Dec’20

Private final consumption expenditure Investments Discrepancies1

Government final consumption expenditure Net exports

1. Statistical Discrepancy: taking the GDP from the production approach as the control total, gives the measure of the overall difference between the production
approach and the expenditure approach followed for estimation.
Note: This composition is basis Real GDP 32
Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis, MOSPI
Both private and government consumption improved in Oct-Dec'20 vs.
COVID-19
previous quarter; YoY growth remained in the negative territory
GDP
DEEP-DIVE

Final Consumption Expenditure, % change YoY

25

7.9 8.9

-2.4
0
3.1 6.4 -11.3 -1.1

-25 -24.0

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-50
Jul-Sep’18 Oct-Dec’18 Jan-Mar’19 Apr-Jun’19 Jul-Sep’19 Oct-Dec’19 Jan-Mar’20 Apr-Jun’20 Jul-Sep’20 Oct-Dec’20

Private Government

Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis, RBI, Press articles 33

Gross capital formation ventured into positive territory in Oct-Dec'20,
COVID-19
growing at 2.1% compared to Oct-Dec'19 levels
GDP
DEEP-DIVE

Growth in capital formation

Gross Capital Formation, % change YoY turned positive after four
consecutive quarters of
25 decline

0.8 2.1
-0.4 -0.7
0
-7.8

-25

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

-46.9
-50
Jul-Sep’18 Oct-Dec’18 Jan-Mar’19 Apr-Jun’19 Jul-Sep’19 Oct-Dec’19 Jan-Mar’20 Apr-Jun’20 Jul-Sep’20 Oct-Dec’20

Source: CMIE 34
Growth in industrial sector turned positive after five quarters; agriculture
COVID-19
activities continued to grow in the Oct-Dec'20 quarter
GDP
DEEP-DIVE

GVA Quarterly growth, % change YoY Oct-Dec Qtr. CAGR1 Share in

20 over 2016-20 Industry GVA
3.9
100%
0 2.7
-1.0
3.75% 19.1%
Agriculture
-20
29.3%
-40
3.14%

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Industry
-60
Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- 51.7%
Dec’16 Dec’17 Dec’18 Dec’19 Dec’20

4.92%
Agriculture, forestry & fishing Industry Services Services
Oct-Dec’20

1. CAGR= [(Value of GVA in INR Mn in Oct-Dec'20/Value of GVA in INR Mn in Oct-Dec'16)^(1/4)]-1

Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis 35
All components of the services sector improved vs. previous quarter;
COVID-19
Financial services recorded significant growth over the previous year
GDP
DEEP-DIVE

Services GVA Quarterly growth, % change YoY Oct-Dec Qtr. CAGR1 Share in
20 over 2016-20 Industry GVA
6.6
100%
0 -1.5 5.18%
Community, social
and personal 26.1%
-7.7 services
-20

-40 4.03% 35.5%

Trade, hotels,

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transport, storage
-60 and communication
Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct-
Dec’16 Dec’17 Dec’18 Dec’19 Dec’20 38.4%
5.60%
Financial services,
Trade, hotels, transport, storage and communication real estate and
business services Oct-Dec’20
Financial services, real estate and business services
Community, social and personal services

1. CAGR= [(Value of GVA in INR Mn in Oct-Dec'20/Value of GVA in INR Mn in Oct-Dec'16)^(1/4)]-1

Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis 36
Barring mining & quarrying, all other major components of industry
COVID-19
witnessed positive YoY growth in Oct-Dec'20
GDP
DEEP-DIVE

Industry GVA Quarterly growth, % change YoY Oct-Dec Qtr. CAGR1 Share in
20 over 2016-20 Industry GVA
7.3
6.2 100%
0 1.7 -3.14%
Mining and 7.5%
-5.9 quarrying 7.7%
-20
5.60% 27.9%
Electricity, gas,
water supply and
-40 other utility services

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-60 4.11%
Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Construction 56.9%
Dec’16 Dec’17 Dec’18 Dec’19 Dec’20

Mining and quarrying Electricity, gas, water supply and other 3.32%
Manufacturing Oct-Dec’20
utility services
Manufacturing Construction

1. CAGR= [(Value of GVA in INR Mn in Oct-Dec'20/Value of GVA in INR Mn in Oct-Dec'16)^(1/4)]-1

Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis 37
 Indian GDP growth forecasts revised upwards to 6.7-9.6% contraction GDP FORECASTS
in the financial year
Data as of 21 Mar'21; Estimates likely to be revised further NON - EXHAUSTIVE
India GDP growth forecast for FY21 (YoY, %)
Mar-Apr'20 May-Jun'20 Jul-Aug'20 Sep-Oct'20 Nov-Dec'20 Jan-Mar'21

-1.7 -4.3 -1.7 -4.3 -9.7 -10.3 -9.5 -10.1 -14.2 -10.0 -16.1 -15.5 -16.5 -17.0 -13.5 -12.9 -16.1 -15.4 -13.8
-8.3 -13.6 -8.1
5.2 3.5 5.1 5.2 3.5 5.8 4.7 5.8 5.5 4.1 4.7 5.5 5.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 6.0 5.2 5.5 5.8 5.8
0.8 1.5 3.3 3.3 1.1

-5.0 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -6.0 -4.5

-7.5 -7.7 -8.0 -7.0
-9.5 -10.3 -9.5 -10.8 -11.5 -10.3 -10.6 -9.6
Barclays Fitch Crisil DBS ICRA Goldman IMF Moody’s Bank of ICRA FICCI World IMF SBI3
IMF RBI Nomura Moody’s Goldman RBI S&P Moody’s
Ratings Sachs America Bank
Sachs Global

-3.9 -1.9 -3.9 -10.8 -8.4 -11.8 -11.8

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

-1.7 -10.5
-7.9 -12.0 -17.3 -15.6 -15.7 -14.8 -14.5 -12.5 -10.8 -12.4 -12.5
-18.1
6.0 5.5 3.6 5.8 5.5 5.8 5.7 -9.1
4.5 5.2
2.1 1.9 3.3 1.6 1.1 1.1 5.5 5.1 4.7 5.8 5.1 4.7 5.7 5.5
3.3 4.1
1.1
-3.2
-6.8 -5.3 -6.0 -6.0 -6.1
-10.9 -7.4 -7.8 -6.7 -6.7 -7.0
EIU India IMF Goldman SBI3 India DeutscheBarclays -10.5 -11.0 -9.0 -9.4
DBS Nomura SBI3 -11.8
Ratings Sachs Ratings Bank -14.8 DBS SBI3 Fitch ICRA Bank of Nomura Moody’s
India Fitch Goldman ICRA Ratings America
Ratings Ratings Sachs
GDP
Growth
Forecast 3.6% to 0.8% -3.2% to -6.8% -4.5% to -10.9% -9.5% to -14.8% -7.4% to -10.6% -6.7% to -9.6%
% Range

1. Pre-lockdown forecasts were made during Feb-2020/early Mar-2020; 2. Post-lockdown forecasts refer to forecasts made between 25-Mar to 20-Sep-2020 Pre-lockdown forecasts1
3. Pre-lockdown forecast for SBI is as of 16-Apr-2020 38
Source: Analysts reports, BCG analysis Post-lockdown forecasts2
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