India Economic

COVID-19 Monitor
January 2021 Update
COVID-19
Executive Summary
Last month of 2020 showcased continued recovery across active COVID-19 cases as well the Indian economic indicators. Select indicators
hit record high levels in Dec'20, namely, GST collections, E-Way bills and UPI transactions. Merchandize imports witnessed positive YoY
growth for the first time after contracting for 9 months. Auto sales, pharma sales & steel consumption growth remained in the positive
territory; CPI (inflation rate) eased to 4.6% vs. 6+% highs in the previous months. However, with the hit on the economy in most of the
months of 2020, the GDP projections estimate a 6-10% YoY contraction for this financial year.

Trends across key economic indicators

• Industrial Activity: Daily avg. power consumption witnessed a 5% YoY growth in Dec'20 as compared to a 4% YoY growth in Nov'20; fuel consumption YoY gap
improved to -2% YoY in Dec'20 compared to -3% YoY in Nov'20; Index of Industrial Production fell 2% YoY in Nov'20 after growing YoY for 2 months
• Trade: In Dec'20, Merchandize imports saw 8% YoY growth in Dec'20 after declining from Mar-Nov'20 while merchandize exports YoY gap improved to -1% YoY
vs. -9% YoY in Nov'20; Services exports YoY gap marginally improved in Nov'20
• Logistics: FASTag transactions increased 11% vs. Nov in Dec'20; E-way bills grew at 16% YoY in Dec'20 ; JNPT traffic continued to grow YoY in Dec'20; Air & rail
passenger traffic improved in Nov-Dec'20 vs. previous months, however significantly far from pre-COVID levels
• Financial Services: Aggregate deposits & bank credit improved vs. previous months; deposit & credit YoY growth improved in the last week of Dec'20; Value of

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

UPI transactions continued to hit all time high level at INR 4.16 Tn (100+% YoY growth) in Dec'20
• Sector-wise Impact: PVs, 2W & tractor sales grew YoY in Dec'20 (PV sales grew 7%, 2W sales grew 11%, tractor sales grew 41% YoY), 3W continued to see YoY
de-growth; Pharma sales continued to grow vs. last year while fertilizer sales witnessed a contraction vs. last year levels in Dec'20; Consumption of steel
continued to grow in Dec'20 vs. last year & previous months; Non-life insurance premium grew vs. Dec'19 levels while life insurance premiums witnessed a dip
vs. Dec'19 levels
• Macroeconomic Indicators: GST collections continued to grow vs. last year for the 4th month in Dec'20, hitting record high levels; MGNREGA work demand &
employment trended at 45%+YoY levels
• Sentiment: Consumer sentiment improved in Dec'20 vs. Nov'20; Rural sentiment remained better than urban; Both Manufacturing & Services PMI remained
beyond the 50-point mark in Dec'20 (56.4 & 52.3 respectively), Manufacturing PMI witnessed a marginal uptick while Services PMI dipped vs. Nov'20;
Improvement in value of stock market transactions (YoY growth) vs. Jul-Nov'20 in Dec'20; Mutual funds AUM continued to grow vs. last year levels & previous
months in Dec'20

Source: MoHFW, POSOCO, MOSPI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, RBI, GST Network, NPCI, NETC, Ministry of Railways, AAI, JNPT, AIOCD, mFMS, Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of 1
Steel, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, SIAM, CMIE, IRDAI, Ministry of Finance, GST Council, Ministry of Rural Development, Analyst reports, BCG analysis
Active COVID-19 case count on a decline with improvement in recovery and test
positivity rate
Data as of 20 Jan
Deaths Recovered Active cases
Total cases

12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20- 20-
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Total cases 395k 1.1M 2.9M 5.4M 7.6M 9M 10M 10.6M

Active cases 168k 401k 690k 1M 739k 442k 302k 189k

Days Doubling Rate 20 18 29 34 88 186 282 518

Recovery Rate 54.1% 62.8% 74.3% 80.1% 88.8% 93.6% 95.5% 96.7%

Test Positivity Rate 5.8% 8.0% 8.7% 8.5% 7.9% 6.9% 6.2% 5.6%

Fatality Rate 3.3% 2.4% 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4%

Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW); covid19india.org; BCG analysis 2
2020, the year of global turmoil – Quick glance at impact on Indian economy
YoY Growth
Indicator Unit Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Industrial Petroleum Consumption MT 1% 4% -19% -49% -20% -9% -13% -16% -4% 2% -3% -2%
activity Index of Industrial Prod. Index 2% 5% -19% -57% -33% -17% -11% -7% 0% 4% -2% NA
Merchandize Export USD -2% 3% -35% -60% -36% -12% -10% -13% 6% -5% -9% -1%
Trade
Merchandize Import USD -1% 2% -29% -60% -52% -48% -28% -26% -20% -12% -13% 8%
E-Way Bills Mn 12% 14% -26% -84% -53% 18% -7% -4% 9% 21% 8% 16%
Logistics
Rail Passengers Mn -2% 5% -39% -101% -101% -99% -98% -97% -94% -91% -83% -73%
UPI Transactions INR Tn 97% 108% 55% 6% 43% 79% 98% 93% 104% 102% 107% 105%
Financial
Total Bank Credit INR 7.2% 6.3% 6.1% 6.9% 6.4% 6.2% 5.9% 5.5% 5.2% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9%
Services
Total Bank Deposits INR 9.7% 9.0% 8.5% 9.7% 10.6% 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.8% 11.3%
Passenger Vehicle Sales K -6% -5% -50% -99% -83% -51% -14% -2% 13% 9% -3% 7%
Select Tractor Sales K 3% 20% -50% -80% 1% 20% 36% 65% 27% 9% 48% 41%
Sectors Steel Sales MT 5% 5% -23% -87% -53% -29% -9% -8% -1% 1% 23% 18%
Pharma Sales INR 8% 12% 9% -11% -9% 2% 0.20% -2% 4% 10% 1% 8%

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Macro- GST Collection INR 8% 8% -8% -72% -38% -9% -15% -12% 4% 10% 1% 12%
economic Consumer Price Index Index 7.6% 6.6% 5.8% 7.2% 6.3% 6.2% 6.7% 6.7% 7.3% 7.6% 6.9% 4.6%
& sentiment PMI (Composite) Index 5% 7% -4% -86% -71% -26% -31% -13% 10% 17% 7% 2%
Forecasted FY21 YoY
USD Bn 3.6% to 0.8% -3.2% to -6.8% -4.5% to -10.9% -9.5% to -14.8% -7.4% to -10.6%
GDP (Real) Growth
Actual Quarter YoY Growth USD Bn 3.1% -23.9% -7.5%

Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec

Flat beginning to the year,
with March marking the drop
across indicators;
Select indicators experienced
opposite impact (UPI txn.,
pharma sales)
Period of highest decline
across indicators with peak
lockdown restrictions in the
country, esp. in April; Tractor
sales an exception due to
good monsoon
Industrial activity & trade
began gradual recovery,
however significantly below
2019 levels; Select indicators
such as bank deposits/credit
showed lagged impact
Last quarter reflected
significant recovery, with
some indicators going beyond
2019 levels due to pent-up
demand (merchandize
import, PV sales, etc.)
3
1
Power consumption continued to improve while fuel consumption INDUSTRIAL
dipped vs. Dec'19; IIP fell in Nov'20 after growing YoY for 2 months ACTIVITY

Daily Average Power Consumption IIP1 (Index of Industrial Production) & Consumption of Petroleum Products
Volume ('000s MUs) ICI2 (Index of Core Industries)3 (in MMT)4

150 137 134 18.7

3.9 4.0 3.8 133 20 18.1 16.1 17.8 17.9 18.6
3.6 3.8
126 126
4 3.7 3.7 117 116
123 120 121
3.3 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.3 108 15.9 15.4 15.6 15.5
124
129 126
15 14.4
100 118 117
3 81 108

90
10 9.4
2 3.8 3.6
54
3.4 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.2 50
2.8
1 5

0 0 0

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Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Sep-20
Oct-20
Jul-20

Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Jul-20

Sep-20
Oct-20
May-20

Nov-20
Dec-20

May-20

Nov-20
Dec-20
Jun-20

Aug-20

Jun-20

Aug-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Sep-20
Oct-20
Jul-20
May-20

Nov-20
Jun-20

Aug-20
2019 2020 IIP ICI

YoY IIP
growth 3% 7% -10% -25% -16% -10% -3% -2% 3% 10% 4% 5% YoY 2% 5% -19% -57% -33% -17% -11% -7% 0.5% 4% -2% 1% 4% -19% -49% -20% -9% -13% -16% -4% 2% -3% -2%
growth

1. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shows the growth rates in different industry groups (comprises of Mfg. (78% weightage), Mining (14%), Electricity (8%))
2. Index of Core Industries (ICI) measures performance of production in 8 core industries (Coal, Crude, NG, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement & Electricity)
3. In view of the effect of the containment measures for COVID-19 pandemic, the indices for Apr-20 & May-20 are not comparable with preceding months 4
4. Petroleum products include LPG, Naphtha, MS, ATF, SKO, HSD, LDO, Lubricants & Greases, FO & LSHS, Bitumen, coke as reported (provisional) by Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell
Source: Power System Operation Corporation, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Dept. for Promotion of Industry & Internal Trade, PPAC, BCG analysis
2
Merchandize imports increased while exports remained stable; MERCHANDIZE &
Services trade YoY gap of 5-10% continued in Nov'20 SERVICES TRADE

Merchandize Trade (USD Bn) Services Trade (USD Bn)

+4%

+4% -16%
41.1 42.6
37.5
-10%
33.6 33.4
31.2 30.3 19.0
27.7 28.5 29.5 27.6 26.9 17.7 18.2 17.3 17.1
25.8 22.2 23.6 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.0 16.4 16.6
24.9 23.5
21.4 19.1 21.9 21.1 22.7
17.1 12.0 11.1 11.1
9.3 9.9 10.0 10.0 9.6 10.1 9.5 10.1
10.3

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Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-201 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-201

Merchandize Exports Merchandize Imports Services Exports Services Imports

Exports -2% 3% -35% -60% -36% -12% -10% -13% 6% -5% -9% -1%
YoY growth 7% 7% 1% -9% -10% -8% -11% -10% -1% -6% -5%

Imports -1% 2% -29% -60% -52% -48% -28% -26% -20% -12% -13% 8%
YoY growth 9% 13% -2% -18% -20% -15% -22% -20% -9% -12% -12%

1. December 2020 Merchandize Import & Export numbers, November Service Import & Export numbers are provisional as provided by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on 2nd Jan 2021 5
Source: RBI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, BCG analysis
3
E-way bill & FASTag transaction volumes grew YoY in Dec'20; LOGISTICS
Rail freight continued to grow YoY in Nov'20

E-way bills1 generated FASTag transaction Railway freight traffic

(Mn) volume (Mn) originating (Mn Tons)

+13%
70 150 +49%
64 64 120 0%
60 57 57 57 58 Toll collection
suspended
120
50 48 49 from 25-Mar
90
to 20-Apr2
43
41
40 90

138 60
30 25 122 125 110.6
106.5 108.3110.1
60 103.1 102.3
110 110 93.695.2 94.6
20 93 97 82.6
85 82 87

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30 65.4
9 30 55
10 10
0 0 0
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Sep-20
Oct-20
Jul-20
May-20

Nov-20
Dec-20
Jun-20

Aug-20

Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Sep-20
Oct-20
Jul-20
May-20

Nov-20
Dec-20
Jun-20

Aug-20

Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Jul-20

Sep-20
Oct-20
May-20

Nov-20
Jun-20

Aug-20
YoY 12% 14% -26% -84% -53% 18% -7% -4% 9% 21% 8% 16%
MoM 45% 18% -23% -88% 437% 48% 6% 12% 14% 11% 2% 11%
YoY 3% 6% -14% -35% -21% -8% -5% 4% 16% 15% 9%
growth growth growth

1. E-Way bills are required to be generated at the time of transport of goods by every registered person if the value of the consignment exceeds INR 50,000; 2. As per announcement by NHAI; 6
Source: GST Network, NHAI, NPCI, Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, BCG analysis
3
JNPT traffic continued to grow in Dec'20; Air Freight YoY gap improved LOGISTICS
in Nov'20 vs. Apr-Oct'20 levels, though below last year levels

JNPT Container Traffic ('000s TEUs1) Air Freight (k Tons)

Domestic International
500 300 276 268 259
450 +8% 270
239 244 -12%
400 240
112 210 204
350 210 106 192 111
95 101
300 180 77 163
69 76
250 150
460 56
200 426 417 410 380
423 414 120
95
344 353
90

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150 284 275 289 164 162 19
133 47 144 148 142
100 60 123 128
107
7 76
50 30
40
0 0

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Sep-20

Oct-20
Jul-20
May-20

Nov-20
Jun-20

Aug-20
Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Oct-20
May-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20

Aug-20

YoY -3% 1% -13% -37% -39% -29% -20% -19% -5% 5% 8% 10% YoY -1% -1% -32% -83% -68% -40% -34% -30% -16% -14% -13%
growth growth

1. TEU refers to Twenty-foot equivalent unit equivalent to 20 shipping containers (20 feet long, 8 feet tall) 7
Source: Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis
3
Air & rail passenger traffic saw improvement vs. Apr-Oct'20 levels, LOGISTICS
though significantly below last year levels

Air Passengers (Mn) Railway Passenger Bookings (Mn)

60
-73%
800
715
700 676
-57% 600
31 29 500
30 436
Negative volume represents net
400 higher refunds as compared to
25 18 300 new bookings in that month
24 14
11 190
8 200
15 122

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4 5 6 13
0 1 10 100 39 62
6 5 6 8 4 15 22
3 4 4
0 00 01 0 1 1 1 1 1 0
-8 -4
Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Oct-20
May-20

Nov-20
Jun-20

Aug-20

-100

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Sep-20

Oct-20
Jul-20
May-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20

Aug-20
Domestic International

YoY
1% 7% -38% -100% -98% -85% -84% -79% -70% -62% -57% -2% 5% -39% -101% -101% -100% -98% -97% -94% -91% -83% -73%
growth

8
Source: Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis
 4

0
130
140
150
03-Jan 132 9.8
17-Jan 131 9.5

31-Jan 133 9.9

14-Feb 132 9.1

28-Feb 133 9.0

13-Mar 133 9.1

27-Mar 136 7.9

10-Apr 137 9.5

24-Apr 137 9.9

08-May 139 10.7

Bank deposits (INR Tn)

22-May 138 10.6

YoY growth
05-Jun 140 11.3

19-Jun 139 11.0

aggregated for all banks

11.1

Source: RBI DBIE, Press search, BCG analysis

03-Jul 141
17-Jul 140 10.8

31-Jul 142 11.1

14-Aug 141 11.0

10.9
Total deposits value & YoY growth

28-Aug 142
increased YoY growth rate

11-Sep 142 12.0

25-Sep 143 10.5

09-Oct 143 10.5

Aggregate bank deposits

23-Oct 143 10.1

06-Nov 144 10.8

20-Nov 144 10.9

04-Dec 146 11.3

18-Dec 145 11.3

YoY growth (%)

01-Jan 147 11.5

0
5
10
15

96
99

0
3
102
105

03-Jan 7.5 100

17-Jan 7.2 100
31-Jan 7.2 101
14-Feb 6.4 100
28-Feb 6.1 101
13-Mar 6.1 101
27-Mar 6.1 104
10-Apr 7.2 103
Bank credit (INR Tn)

24-Apr 6.8 103

08-May 6.5 103
22-May 6.3 102
YoY growth

05-Jun 6.2 103

aggregated for all banks

19-Jun 6.2 102

03-Jul 6.3 103
17-Jul 5.8 102
31-Jul 5.7 103
14-Aug 5.5 102
Aggregate deposits & bank credit improved vs. previous months, with

28-Aug 5.5 102

11-Sep 5.3 102
25-Sep 5.2 103
09-Oct 5.7 103
Aggregate bank credit

23-Oct 5.1 103

06-Nov 5.8 104
Total credit outstanding value & YoY growth

20-Nov 5.8 104

04-Dec 5.7 105
SERVICES

YoY growth (%)

FINANCIAL

18-Dec 6.0 105

9

01-Jan 6.7 107

0
5
10
15

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4
Value of UPI transactions in Dec'20 continued to spike by 100+% vs. FINANCIAL
previous year levels, hitting a new milestone SERVICES

Value of transactions in INR Tn

+92%
4.5
4.16
3.86 3.91
3.6 3.29 YoY%
2.91 2.98
+105%
2.7 2.62
2.16 2.23 2.18
2.03 2.06
1.8 1.51

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0.9

0.0
Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

Volume of 1.31 1.31 1.33 1.25 1.00 1.23 1.34 1.50 1.61 1.80 2.07 2.21 2.23
Txn in Bn.

Source: NPCI 10
5
Consumption of steel continued to grow in Dec'20 vs. last year & SECTOR-WISE
previous months; Cement production fell in Nov'20 vs. last year levels IMPACT

Consumption of Long Steel Consumption of Flat Steel Cement Production

(in MMT) (in MMT) (in MT)

6 +30% 6 40

+1% -19%
30
4 4

5.7 20
5.2
4.4 4.4 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 31.430.7
2 4.0 2 3.8 4.0 3.8 24.8 26.4 27.025.3
3.5 22.4 24.220.924.2

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3.2 10
2.0 2.1 2.5
0.4
0.6 4.3
0 0 0
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Sep-20
Oct-20

Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Sep-20
Oct-20
Jul-20

Jan-20

Jul-20
May-20

Nov-20
Dec-20

May-20

Nov-20
Dec-20
Jun-20

Aug-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Jul-20

Sep-20
Oct-20
May-20

Nov-20
Jun-20

Aug-20
Long Steel Consumption Flat Steel Consumption Cement Production
YoY 2% 7% -5% -90% -56% -15% -12% -10% 6% -3% 34% 18% 7% 2% -38% -83% -51% -43% -6% -5% -7% 4% 12% 19% 5% 8% -25% -85% -21% -7% -14% -15% -4% 3% -7%
growth

Source: Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Livemint, CMIE, BCG Analysis 11
5
Passenger vehicle, 2W & tractor sales improved vs. last year levels; SECTOR-WISE
3W sales continued to dip in Dec'20 vs. last year IMPACT

Passenger vehicles sales ('000 units) Two-wheeler sales ('0000 units)

+1.2%
-9.1%
323 322 351 303
360 276 196
327 306 307 305 286 259 311 311 289 310
240
202 195 218 205 242
266 251 254 184 165 188 161 169 182 181 182 171 193
181 217
121 146 135 150
130 109
49 38
4 5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY
growth -6% -5% -50% -99% -% -51% -14% -2% 13% 9% -3% 7% -11% -15% -36% -98% -81% -38% -20% 0.2% 11% 18% 13% 11%

Tractor sales ('000 units) Three-wheeler sales ('000 units)

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+20.8% -41.3%
116 114 124 115 111 112
99 98 104 106 92 91 92 96 105 104 95
82 92 90 84
73 72 69
57 59 54 65 71 62 65 65 52
71 60 51 54 54 61 61 61
35 44 36 33
12 20
7

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

YoY 3% 20% -50% -80% 1% 20% 36% 65% 27% 9% 48% 41% 6% -21% -53% -92% -78% -61% -66% -48% -45% -39% -41% -35%
growth

2019 2020
Figures represent wholesale numbers (including exports).
1. Tata Motors data is available for Apr-June only, BMW, Mercedes and Volvo Auto data is not available 12
Source: SIAM, CMIE, Press search, BCG analysis
5
Pharma sales continued to grow vs. last year while fertilizer sales SECTOR-WISE
witnessed a contraction vs. last year levels in Dec'20 IMPACT

Pharmaceutical Sales Fertilizer Sales Indian Chemical Production

(INR k Cr) (in LMT) Index1 (3mo. moving avg.)

+15%
+1%
+7%
92
13.2 13.5 12.8 13.0 120 121 115 118 120
12.1 12.1 11.8 12.1 12.2 113 117
11.2 74 98 103
10.2 10.3 69 69 66
64 85 87

47 47 49
40
29

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21
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Sep-20
Oct-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Sep-20

Oct-20
Jul-20

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Sep-20

Oct-20
Jul-20
May-20

Nov-20
Dec-20

May-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

May-20

Nov-20
Jun-20

Aug-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Jun-20

Aug-20
YoY
8% 12% 9% -11% -9% 2% 0.2% -2% 4% 10% 1% 8% 11% 53% 18% 45% 98% 79% 34% -9% -11% 9% -10% -14% 3% 3% -2% -16% -27% -26% -12% -4% 0% 3% 4%
growth

1. Indian Chemical Production Index refers to a 3-month moving average figure for chemicals production with figure for 2012 as base figure (100)
Source: AIOCD (sales value of month), American Chemistry Council, Mobile Based Fertilizer Management System (mFMS), Ministry of Finance, PIB, The Economic Times, Press search, BCG 13
analysis
5
Non-life insurance premium observed a noticeable uptick while life SECTOR-WISE
insurance premium declined vs. last year levels in Dec'20 IMPACT

Life Insurance premium observed 3% decline in Dec'20 Non-Life1 Insurance premium grew 12% YoY in Dec'20

Premium (INR K Cr.) Premium (INR K Cr.)

37 24 2019 2020
2019 2020 23
32
29
27 18 18 18
26 17 17
25 25 25 24 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
23 24 23 14 15 15
22 14 14 14
21 20 13 13
18 19 18 19 12
17 17 11
14

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10
7
19%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YoY
growth 18% 2% -32% -33% -25% -11% 7% 15% 26% 32% -27% -3% 7% 8% -11% -9% -11% 8% 18% 10% -4% -0.4% 3% 12%

YoY growth
rate for no. 81% -30% -67% -68% -40% -12% -18% -19% -2% -7% -47% 14%
of policies

1. Non-Life Insurance includes Fire, Marine, Motor, Engineering, Health, Cop Insurance, Credit Guarantee, Aviation, Personnel accident and Miscellaneous
14
Source: IRDAI, BCG Analysis
6
Central Govt.'s revenue & expenditure increased YoY in Nov'20; MACROECONOMIC
GST collections hit record high levels, growing 12% YoY in Dec'20 INDICATORS

Central Govt. Revenue & Expenditure (INR Tn) Total GST Collections3 (INR Tn)
(based on data from Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Finance) (based on data from GST Council)

+4%
10 3
1.2 1.15
Expenditure & Receipts (INR Tn)

1.11
9

Gross Fiscal Deficit (INR Tn)

Total GST Collections (INR Tn)

2.8 1.05 1.05 1.05
8 2 0.98
1.0 0.91
0.95
2.0 0.87 0.86
7 1.9
1.6 0.8
6 1.2
1
5 0.62
0.6
4 0.5 0.5 3.2 3.1
0.5 0.4 0.4 0
3.0
3 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 0.4 0.32
2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8
2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 -1

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

1.0 1.1
1 -1.0 0.8 0.2
0.3 0.2
0 -2
0.0
Feb-20

Mar-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Sep-20
Apr-20

Aug-20

Oct-20
Jan-20

May-20

Nov-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Sep-20
Apr-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20
Jan-20

May-20

Nov-20
Expenditure -6% 5% 80% 21% -21% 46% 6% -15% -26% 9% 48%
YoY growth
Revenue 5% 37% -2% -72% -64% -24% -28% -35% -13% 47% 58%
YoY growth YoY 8% 8% -8% -72% -38% -9% -15% -12% 4% 10% 1% 12%
growth
Total Expenditure Non-Debt Receipts Gross Fiscal Deficit2
1. Bloomberg Quint 2. Gross Fiscal Deficit is the difference between the total Non-Debt Receipts of the government (revenue receipts and non-debt capital
receipts) and Total expenditure 3. GST Collections include all components: CGST, SGST, IGST, Cess 15
Source: Ministry of Finance, GST Council, BCG analysis
6
Count & value of tenders announced by Central & State Govts. MACROECONOMIC
continued to grow in Dec'20 vs. last year levels and previous months INDICATORS

Count of tenders announced by central & Value of tenders announced by central & state
state govts (k) govts (INR Tn)

+51% +34%
4.2 0.87
3.6 3.6 0.74
3.3 0.65
2.8 2.9 0.58 0.60 0.57 0.58 0.60
2.5 2.7 0.55 0.50 0.48

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

2.1 0.47 0.46 0.44
1.8 1.7
1.6
1.2
0.8
Apr-20
Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Oct-20
Nov-19

Dec-19

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

Dec-20

Nov-19

Dec-19

May-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20

Aug-20

Jun-20

Aug-20
YoY YoY
-5% -10% -4% 7% 17% 29% 125% 80% 110% 201% 127% 253% -42% -53% -49% 244% 54% 55% 123% -20% 43% 88% 28% 52%
growth growth

Source: Project Today database, BCG analysis 16

6
MGNREGA work demand & employment remained at 45%+YoY levels MACROECONOMIC
after trending at 75%+ than last year levels in previous months INDICATORS

+41%
50
40
Work Demand 30
20 45
(households, in Mn) 37 32 27
10 19 22 21 24 24 24 23
13
0
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20
YoY
Growth -11% 5% 2% -37% 49% 74% 74% 67% 71% 89% 50% 56%

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

+31%
40
30
Employment Provided
20 39
(households, in Mn) 33 28
10 16 19 16 20 20 20 18 21
11
0
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20
YoY
Growth -13% 5% -1% -35% 56% 80% 83% 63% 65% 83% 47% 46%

MGNREGA refers to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act 17

Source: Ministry of Labor & Employment, Ministry of Rural Development, The Indian Express, Outlook India, LiveMint, BCG analysis
6
Organized sector hiring and joining activity improved in Nov-Dec'20 MACROECONOMIC
(based on select indicators) INDICATORS

Net new EPF subscribers improved to ~1+ Mn (Sep-Nov'20),

Naukri Jobspeak Index improved in Dec'20
higher than last year & previous month levels

Naukri Jobspeak Index Net new EPF Subscriber (in Mn)

2019 2020
150 1.5
1.33

1.02 1.06 1.01

1.00
100 101 1.0
0.83 0.83
100 100 0.79 0.81
0.73
82 0.62
0.69 0.64
74 74 73 0.57
0.50
0.58 0.54

59 0.5
Jan-201 53 83 0.31 0.34
51 0.22
number
50 40 38
taken as
base for 0.0

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

index
-0.21 -0.19
(100)
0 -0.5
Jan’20 Feb’20 Mar’20 Apr’20 May’20 Jun’20 Jul’20 Aug’20 Sep’20 Oct’20 Nov’20 Dec’20 Jan’20 Feb’20 Mar’20 Apr’20 May’20 Jun’20 Jul’20 Aug’20 Sep’20 Oct’20 Nov’20

Naukri Jobspeak Index Net New EPF Subscriber Trend

Monthly index which calculates and records hiring activity based on newly added Net new EPF subscribers are net of the members newly enrolled, exited and rejoined
job listings on Naukri.com every month during the month as per records of the EPFO
Jobs analyzed for the monthly index are qualified on the basis of white-collar Employees in an establishment3 drawing less than INR 15,000 per month are
jobs belonging to the organized corporate sector mandated to become members of the EPF upon joining
1. Jan-20 level considered as pre-COVID-19 level 2. Active members refers to total contributing members during last one year as published on EPFO dashboard as on 21-Sep-20; 3. Covers every
establishment in which 20+ people are employed and certain organizations are covered, subject to certain conditions and exemptions even if they employ less than 20 persons each 4. Net EPF
18
additions are revised monthly as per the EPFO data
Source: Ministry of Labor and Employment, InfoEdge, Naukri.com, BCG analysis
6
WPI eased from 1.6% to 1.2% and CPI eased to 4.6%, led by easing MACROECONOMIC
prices of some food items in Dec'20 INDICATORS

Monthly inflation rate (%)

Wholesale Price Index (WPI)2 Consumer Price Index (CPI)1

10 8 7.6 7.6
7.4 7.2 7.3
6.9
6.7 6.7
6.6
6.2
5.8
6 5.5
6.3
5
3.5 3.5 4.6 4.6
3.1 2.8
2.8 2.8 4.0
2.0 2.3
3.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.2 4
2.9 1.2 1.2 3.1 3.3
0.6 3.0
0.3 0.4 0.2 2.9

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

0.0 2.6
-0.6
0 2.12.0 3.0
3.2
-1.6 -1.8
2
-3.4

-5 0
Feb-19

Jul-20
Mar-20

Feb-19
Jun-20

Mar-19

Jun-19
Jul-19

Sep-19

Feb-20
Mar-20

Jun-20
Jul-20

Sep-20
Oct-20
Mar-19

Feb-20

Aug-20
Sep-20

Dec-18

Apr-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Apr-20

Aug-20

Dec-20
Dec-18

Jun-19
Jul-19

Apr-20
Jan-19

May-20

Dec-20

Jan-19

May-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

May-20

Nov-20
Apr-19

Sep-19

Oct-20
Nov-20
Aug-19

Oct-19
May-19

Dec-19
Nov-19

Jan-20

1. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is
calculated as year on year increase in prices of the commodities 2. The wholesale price index (WPI) measures and tracks the changes in the price of goods in the stages before the retail level –
that is, goods that are sold in bulk and traded between entities or businesses instead of consumers. It is calculated as year on year increase in prices of the commodities
Note: In May 2016, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act, 1934 was amended to provide a statutory basis for the implementation of the flexible inflation targeting framework. 19
Source: BCG Analysis. DPIIT, MOSPI, Office of the Economic Advisor - Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade,CMIE
6
Dec'20 repo & reverse repo rate remained at the same level; base rate & MACROECONOMIC
MCLR on bank borrowings marginally dipped vs. previous months INDICATORS

Reserve bank’s policy rates (%) MCLR1 of scheduled commercial banks

(Median rate on one-year borrowings, in %)

Policy rate % MCLR (%)

12 12

8.62 8.55
9 8.24 9
7.30
7.32 7.32
7.32
6 6
6.10 5.95

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

4.00
3.35
3 3
Sep-20
Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Oct-20
Jul-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Dec-19

May-20

Jun-20

Aug-20

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Sep-20

Oct-20
Jul-20
Dec-19

May-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20

Aug-20
Total Private Sector Banks
Base rate 2 Repo rate3 Reverse Repo rate4 Public Sector Banks Foreign Banks

1. MCLR: Minimum interest rate at which scheduled commercial banks can lend to customers (based on incremental cost of funds). Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate was introduced from April 2016 for
fixing interest rates, and replaced the former Base rate methodology (based on average cost of funds). 2. Base Rate: Minimum rate set by the Reserve Bank of India below which banks are not allowed to lend to its
customers 3. Repo Rate: Interest rate at which the RBI lends short term funds to licensed commercial banks 4. Reverse Repo Rate: Interest rate which the RBI borrows money from commercial banks 20
Source: CMIE, RBI DBIE
6
INR remained rangebound between ~73/dollar; Forex reserves MACROECONOMIC
continued to reach new peaks, at ~581 USD Bn in Dec'20 INDICATORS

Exchange Rate (INR/USD) Forex reserves (USD Billion)

Exchange Rate (INR/USD) Forex reserves (USD Billion)

80
581
561 575
535 541 542
493 507 +23%
76.24 471 482 476 479

75 73.59

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

71.49 +4%
70.73

70
68.81

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Oct-20
May-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Jun-20

Aug-20
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19

Oct-19

Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20

Oct-20
Sep-19

Jul-20

Sep-20
Dec-18

Jul-19

Dec-19

May-20

Nov-20
Dec-20
May-19

Nov-19
Jun-19

Jun-20

Aug-20
Aug-19

21
Source: CMIE, RBI
6
India witnessed significant FDI in Jan-Oct'20 MACROECONOMIC
INDICATORS

Foreign Direct Investments1 ($ Bn) xx Annual (Calendar Year) FDI Inflows

$42 Bn $50 Bn $48.1 Bn

2018 2019 Jan-Oct'20

18.4

7.6
5.5 4.6 5.5 5.5 6.2

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

4.7 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.7 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.9 4.0 5.1
2.3 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.5 3.2 2.8 3.0 3.3
1.6 1.3 0.8 0.1
Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20
Oct-202
Jun-18

Nov-19
Dec-19

Jun-20
Jan-18

Jul-18

Nov-18
Dec-18

Jun-19
Jul-19

Jul-20
Feb-18

Apr-18
May-18

Aug-18

Oct-18

Jan-19
Feb-19

Apr-19
May-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Jan-20
Feb-20

Apr-20
May-20

Aug-20
Including Reliance-Jio Deals

1. Denotes total inward FDI to India; 2. Oct'20 figures are provisional

Source: CMIE 22
Note: Past period data may vary from the previous versions of the Economic Monitor owing to restating of previous years’ data by the CMIE/reporting agencies
6
Foreign Institutional Investments improved marginally in Oct'20 albeit MACROECONOMIC
remained somber in Jan-Oct'20 INDICATORS

Foreign Institutional Investments ($ Bn) xx Annual (Calendar Year) FIIs

-$11 Bn $26 Bn -$3.5 Bn

2018 2019 Jan-Oct'20

9.3
6.0 6.7
3.4 4.6 3.1
3.0 2.2 2.7 3.0
0.3 0.3
1.9 1.2 1.9 2.0 0.3 1.7 0.6
-0.5 -0.5 -0.3

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

-1.4 -1.7 -2.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.0 -1.0
-3.2 -4.2 -3.8
-4.9

-15.0
Mar-18

Sep-18

Mar-19

Sep-19

Mar-20

Sep-20
Oct-201
Jun-18

Jun-19

Nov-19
Dec-19

Jun-20
Jan-18
Feb-18

Apr-18
May-18

Jul-18

Nov-18
Dec-18
Aug-18

Oct-18

Jan-19
Feb-19

Apr-19
May-19

Jul-19
Aug-19

Oct-19

Jan-20
Feb-20

Apr-20
May-20

Jul-20
Aug-20
1. Oct'20 figures are provisional
Source: CMIE 23
Note: Past period data may vary from the previous versions of the Economic Monitor owing to restating of previous years’ data by the CMIE/reporting agencies
7
Manufacturing PMI saw a marginal uptick while Services PMI dipped vs. SENTIMENT –
MFG. & SERVICES
Nov'20 levels in Dec'20 albeit above the 50-point mark PMI

Manufacturing PMI reached 56.4 in Dec'20, a Services PMI dipped to 52.3 in Dec'20, compared
marginal uptick from the Nov'20 mark to the 53.7 mark in Nov'20

Manufacturing PMI Services PMI

+2% Possible Possible

expansion -6% expansion
58.9 57.5
56.8 56.4 in the in the
60 55.354.5 56.3
sector
60 55.5 54.1 sector
53.7 52.3
51.8 52.0
49.3 49.8
50 47.2 50 50 50
41.8
40 46.0 40 34.2
30.8 33.7
30 27.4 30

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Possible Possible
Manufacturing PMI contraction contraction
20 exceeded the global in the 20 in the
PMI levels of 53.8 in sector 12.6 sector
Dec'20
10 10 5.4

0 0
Feb-20

Jul-20
Mar-20

Jun-20

Sep-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Sep-20
Apr-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Apr-20

Oct-20
Jan-20

May-20

Nov-20

Aug-20
Feb-20

Mar-20

May-20
Jan-20

Nov-20

Dec-20
Note: The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing and services sectors. The PMI is based on a monthly survey of supply
chain managers across 19 industries, covering both upstream and downstream activity. Value >50 indicates possible expansion in the sector, and value <50 indicates recession. 24
Source: IHS Markit, CMIE, Analyst Reports, BCG analysis
7
Consumer sentiment still far below pre-COVID levels; SENTIMENT-
CONSUMER
Rural sentiment marginally better than urban sentiment SENTIMENT

CMIE Consumer Sentiment Survey Rural Consumer Sentiment Index

150
Sample Size
• 1.74L households in 90 cities and 969 110 109 106
97
villages surveyed over 4 months 100
-49%
49 51 50 56 55 56
44 45 45
50
Methodology
• Longitudinal survey: Same set of
0
households surveyed in batches over

Feb’20

Jun’20

Jul’20
Mar’20
Dec’19

Apr’20

Aug’20

Sep’20

Oct’20

Dec’20
Jan’20

May’20

Nov’20
time
• Scoring based on 5 questions:
Urban Consumer Sentiment Index

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

– Perception of current well-being
– Expectations of future well-being 150
– Perceptions of current economic
conditions of the country 103 102 104 96
100
– Perceptions of prospective -53%
economic conditions of the 40 40 40 47 46 48
50 40 37 38
country
– Household's propensity to spend
on consumer durables 0

Jun’20
Mar’20

Jul’20

Aug’20

Nov’20
Feb’20

Oct’20
Dec’19

Dec’20
Sep’20
Apr’20

May’20
Jan’20

25
Source: CMIE Consumer Pyramids Survey
7
Healthcare, IT, Tech. and Energy continued in positive territory in BSE; SENTIMENT – BSE
PSU, CPSE and Oil & Gas saw maximum decline in Dec’20 SECTORAL INDICES

Descending order of performance1

BSE Sectoral Indices
Change (%) Sector % Change
Healthcare 61.03%
70 IT 55.74%
TECk2 43.32%
60 Basic Materials 25.85%
Consumer Durables 23.24%
50
Consumer discretionary 20.62%
40 Industrials 17.19%
Energy 16.96%
30 BSE 500 16.60%
20 Telecom 13.99%
BSEAUTO Index 13.15%
10 Metal 11.49%
0 Capital Goods 10.06%

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

FMCG 10.00%
-10 Realty 8.88%
Power 5.18%
-20
Infra 3.55%
-30 Finance 0.76%
-40 Utilities -1.78%
Bankex -1.88%
-50 Oil and Gas -4.19%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec CPSE3 -15.16%
PSU -17.29%
1. Growth rate vs. 01-Jan-20
2. The S&P BSE TECk index comprises constituents of the S&P BSE 500 that are classified as members of the media & publishing, information technology & telecommunications sector
3. CPSE- Central Public Sector Enterprises
Source : BSE, Bloomberg, BCG analysis 26
7
Value of stock market transactions grew in Dec'20 vs. previous months; SENTIMENT –
STOCK MKT.
Mutual fund AUM grew by 17% YoY in Dec'20 TRANSACTIONS

Stock Market Transactions (INR k Cr) Mutual Funds AUM2 (INR L Cr)
BSE NSE India VIX
+11%
35
1,500 80 31.0
Transaction Value ( INR) k Cr

99 30.0

India Volatility Index (VIX)1

110 80
64 93 71 30 27.9 27.2 27.1 27.5 26.9
28.2
70 25.5
23.9 24.5
58 60 25 22.3
82 65
1,000
44 20
56 56 34 40
30 1,337 1,375
17 1,351 1,349 1,283
1,223 15
23 1,099
500 1,006 906 1,000
805 797 29 20 10
25 23 25

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

20 20 21 5
0 0 0
Feb-20

Jun-20

Jul-20
Mar-20

Sep-20
Apr-20

Aug-20

Oct-20

Dec-20
Jan-20

May-20

Nov-20

Feb-20

Jun-20

Sep-20
Mar-20

Apr-20

Aug-20

Oct-20
Jul-20

Dec-20
Jan-20

Nov-20
May-20
19% 18% -6% -3% -5% 5% 11% 8% 10% 7% 11% 17%
BSE YoY 10% 1% -20% 21% 12% 135% 66% 83% 33% 2% 30% 128%

Mutual Funds AUM include investments from individuals (50.5%) & institutions
NSE YoY 21% 25% 44% 42% 27% 127% 89% 90% 72% 46% 60% 102%
(49.5%); institutions include domestic & foreign institutions and banks

1. Volatility Index is a measure of market’s expectation of volatility over the near term; India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY50 Index Option prices providing the expected market
volatility over the next 30 calendar days – figures represented are as of end of every month shown
2. Mutual funds Assets Under Management (AUM) represented as recorded at end of every month shown 27
Source: BSE, NSE, AMFI, BCG analysis
 Indian GDP growth forecasts revised upwards to 6.7-9.6% contraction GDP FORECASTS
in the financial year
Data as of 24 Jan'21; Estimates likely to be revised further NON - EXHAUSTIVE
India GDP growth forecast for FY21 (YoY, %)
Mar-Apr May-Jun Jul-Aug Sep-Oct Nov-Dec Jan

-1.7 -4.3 -1.7 -4.3 -9.7 -10.3 -9.5 -10.1 -14.2 -10.0 -16.1 -15.5 -16.5 -17.0 -13.5 -12.9 -16.1 -10.8 -12.4
-8.3 -13.6
5.2 3.5 5.1 5.2 3.5 5.8 4.7 5.8 5.5 4.1 4.7 5.5 5.8 6.0 5.7 5.5 6.0 5.2 5.5 4.1 5.7
0.8 1.5 3.3 3.3

-5.0 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -6.0 -4.5

-7.5 -7.7 -6.7 -6.7
-9.5 -10.3 -9.5 -10.8 -10.3 -10.6
-11.5
Barclays Fitch Crisil DBS ICRA Goldman IMF Moody’s Bank of ICRA FICCI Bank of Nomura
IMF RBI NomuraMoody’s Goldman RBI S&P Moody’s
Ratings Sachs America America
Sachs Global

-3.9 -1.9 -3.9 -10.8 -8.4 -11.8 -11.8

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

-1.7 -10.5
-7.9 -12.0 -17.3 -15.6 -15.7 -14.8 -14.5 -12.5 -15.4
-18.1
6.0 5.5 3.6 5.8 5.5 5.8 5.7 -9.1
4.5 5.2
2.1 1.9 3.3 1.6 1.1 1.1 5.5 5.1 4.7 5.8 5.1 4.7 5.8
3.3
1.1

-5.3 -3.2
-6.8 -6.0 -6.0 -6.1
-10.9 -7.4 -7.8
EIU India IMF Goldman SBI3 India DeutscheBarclays -10.5 -11.0 -9.0 -9.4 -9.6
DBS Nomura SBI3 -11.8
Ratings Sachs Ratings Bank -14.8 DBS SBI3 Fitch ICRA World
India Fitch Goldman ICRA Ratings Bank
Ratings Ratings Sachs
GDP
Growth
Forecast 3.6% to 0.8% -3.2% to -6.8% -4.5% to -10.9% -9.5% to -14.8% -7.4% to -10.6% -6.7% to -9.6%
% Range

1. Pre-lockdown forecasts were made during Feb-2020/early Mar-2020; 2. Post-lockdown forecasts refer to forecasts made between 25-Mar to 20-Sep-2020 Pre-lockdown forecasts1
3. Pre-lockdown forecast for SBI is as of 16-Apr-2020 28
Source: Analysts reports, BCG analysis Post-lockdown forecasts2
 Amidst the turmoil in India, schemes were announced to improve
socio-economic conditions & boost investment in 2020
Data as of 27 Jan'21
• Affordable Rental Housing Complexes (ARHCs): ₹600 crore
envisaged till Mar'22 for providing accommodation at affordable
rent to urban poor/migrants
• Defence Production and Export Promotion Policy 2020: Overarching
draft document to provide a focused, structured & significant thrust
to defence production capabilities of India for self-reliance & exports
Jul-Aug Sep-Oct
• Additional Stimulus: Measures of Rs 73,000 crore announced to stimulate
consumer spending1, and measures to support capital expenditure2
• Doorstep Banking: Aims to provide convenience of banking services to the
customers at their door-step through Call Centre, Web Portal or Mobile App
• Sanction of electric vehicles: 670 new electric buses and 241 charging stations
sanctioned under FAME scheme
• Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship: Several job placement
initiatives being taken up
1. Includes encashment of LTC & Special Festival Advance Scheme; 2. Special interest free 50-year loans to States for capital expenditure for Rs. 12,000 crore; 3. Advance Chemistry Cell (ACC)
Battery, Electronic/Technology Products, Automobiles & Auto Components, Pharmaceuticals drugs, Telecom & Networking Products, Textile Products: MMF segment and technical textiles, Food29
Products, High Efficiency Solar PV Modules, White Goods (ACs & LED), Speciality Steel
Source: ILO, Press Information Bureau (PIB); BCG analysis
PUBLIC POLICY
FISCAL & MONETARY
RELIEF MEASURES
NON - EXHAUSTIVE
• Production Linked Incentive worth USD 19.9 billion offered to 10 champion
sectors3
• Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojana: Beneficiaries are any new employee in
enterprise (up to 1000 employees) registered under Employees Provident Fund
Organisation (EPFO) with monthly wages less than ₹15000
• GoI & World Bank sign $400 million project to protect India’s poor and
vulnerable from the impact of COVID-19
Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 28 July 2020.
Nov-Dec Jan
• Ministry of Coal today launched Single Window Clearance Portal,
a unified platform that facilitates grant of clearances and
approvals required for starting a coal mine in India
• Regulatory Compliance Portal by DPIIT: Aims to act as a bridge
between citizens, industries & government in order to minimize
burdensome compliances; first-of-its-kind central online
repository of all Central and State-level compliances
 Summary: Dec'20 trends continued to show improvement across most indicators,
with most indicators exceeding last year levels

Indicator Unit Mar Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Indicator Unit Mar Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1 Industrial Activity 5 Sector-wise Impact
Power Consumption MU -10% -3% -2% 3% 10% 4% 5% Cement Production MT -25% -14% -15% -4% 3% -7% NA
Petroleum Consumption MT -18% -13% -16% -4% 2% -3% -2% Steel Sales MT -23% -9% -8% -1% 1% 23% 18%
Index of Industrial Prod. Index -18% -10% -8% 0.5% 3.6% -1.9% NA Passenger Vehicle Sales k -50% -14% -2% 13% 9% -3% 7%
2 Trade Tractor Sales k -50% 36% 65% 27% 9% 48% 41%
Services Export USD 1% -11% -10% -1% -6% -5% NA Two-wheeler Sales k -36% -20% 0.2% 11% 18% 13% 11%
Services Import USD -2% -22% -20% -9% -12% -12% NA Fertilizer Sales MT 18% 34% -9% -11% 9% -10% -14%

Merchandize Export USD -35% -10% -13% 6% -5% -9% -1% Gross Premium (Life) INR -32% 7% 15% 26% 32% -27% -3%

Merchandize Import USD -29% -28% -26% -20% -12% -13% 8% Gross Premium (Non-Life) INR -11% 18% 10% -4% -0.4% 3% 12%
Pharma. Sales INR 9% 0.2% -2% 4% 10% 1% 8%
3 Logistics
Chemical Production Index Index -2% -12% -4% 0% 3% 4% NA
E-Way Bills Generated Mn -26% -7% -4% 9% 21% 8% 16%
6 Macroeconomic Indicators

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Railway Freight Originated MT -14% -5% 4% 16% 15% 9% NA
Total GST Collection INR -8% -15% -12% 4% 10% 1% 12%
JNPT Container Traffic TEUs -13% -20% -19% -5% 5% 8% 10%
Central Govt. Expenditure INR Tn 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.3 1.8 2.4 NA
Air Freight kT -32% -34% -30% -16% -14% -13% NA
MGNREGA Jobs Demand HHs 2% 74% 67% 71% 89% 50% 56%
Air Passenger Traffic Mn -38% -84% -79% -70% -62% -57% NA
MGNREGA Jobs Provided HHs -1% 83% 63% 65% 83% 47% 46%
Rail Passengers Booked Mn -39% -98% -97% -94% -91% -83% -73%
No. of Tenders Announced k -4% 125% 80% 110% 201% 127% 253%
4 Financial Services
7 Sentiment
UPI Transactions Value INR 55% 98% 93% 104% 102% 107% 105%
India VIX Index 64.4 24.7 22.8 19.5 24.8 19.8 21.1
Total Bank Credit INR 6.1% 5.9% 5.5% 5.2% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9%
PMI (Manufacturing) Index 51.8 46.0 52.0 56.8 58.9 56.3 56.4
Total Bank Deposits INR 8.5% 11.0% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.8% 11.3% PMI (Services) Index 49.3 34.2 41.8 49.8 54.1 53.7 52.3

Data for 2020; YoY growth represented for all indicators (except for India VIX, PMI, Central govt. expenditure, FDI, and FII where absolute values are represented)
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Source: POSOCO, PPAC, MoSPI, RBI, Ministry of Comm. and Industry, GST Network, Ministry of Railways, JNPT, AAI, NPCI, JPC, Ministry of Steel, SIAM, CMIE, mFMS, IRDAI, AIOCD, American
Chemistry Council, GST Council, Ministry of Finance, Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Rural Development, Projects Today, Bloomberg, NSE, BSE, IHS Markit, BCG analysis
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