Louisiana Economic Vitals – Friday Jan 22 2021

Louisiana Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment (seasonally adjusted)

% Chg
Chg Yr-
Nov-19 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Yr-over-
over-Yr
Yr

Unemployment Rate 5.0% 14.5% 13.9% 10.4% 10.0% 8.0% 8.1% 9.2% 8.1% 3.1% 38.8%

Unemployed 104,716 280,620 282,453 209,370 203,076 169,537 169,723 195,730 169,348 64,632 38.1%

Employed 2,004,911 1,649,341 1,743,630 1,811,785 1,835,539 1,936,826 1,927,373 1,921,088 1,925,128 -79,783 -4.1%

Labor Force 2,109,627 1,929,961 2,026,083 2,021,155 2,038,615 2,106,363 2,097,096 2,116,818 2,094,476 -15,151 -0.7%

Employment-population Ratio 56.1 46.2 48.8 50.7 51.4 54.2 53.9 53.8 53.9 -0.3 -0.6%

Labor Force Participation Rate 59.0 54.0 56.7 56.6 57.1 59.0 58.7 59.2 58.6 -0.4 -0.7%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dec 18 2020

MSA Unemployment Rates (not seasonally adjusted)

% Chg
US Initial Claims & 4-Wk Moving Avg
Chg Yr- % Chg Yr- Chg Mth- Sept 5 2020 - Jan 16 2021
MSA Nov-19 May-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Mth-over-
overYr overYr over-Mth
Mth 1,000,000
Alexandria 5.3% 9.9% 6.0% 6.8% 1.5% 28.3% 0.8% 13.3% 950,000

Baton Rouge 900,000

4.6% 13.0% 7.0% 8.0% 3.4% 73.9% 1.0% 14.3%
850,000
Hammond 5.6% 17.1% 9.3% 10.5% 4.9% 87.5% 1.2% 12.9%
800,000
Houma 4.7% 12.4% 6.8% 7.9% 3.2% 68.1% 1.1% 16.2% 750,000
Lafayette 4.9% 13.0% 7.3% 8.3% 3.4% 69.4% 1.0% 13.7% 700,000
Lake Charles 4.2% 14.2% 12.0% 11.8% 7.6% 181.0% -0.2% -1.7% 650,000

Monroe 600,000
5.6% 11.7% 6.7% 7.7% 2.1% 37.5% 1.0% 14.9%
New Orleans 4.7% 19.0% 9.4% 11.3% 6.6% 140.4% 1.9% 20.2%
Shreveport 5.4% 13.1% 7.6% 9.0% 3.6% 66.7% 1.4% 18.4%
Initital Claims SA 4-week Mving Avg SA
Source: BLS, Local area Employment Statistics, Jan 20 2021
Interest Rates – Average of Jan 14 - Jan 20 2021
Treasury Constant Maturities Chg since Dec
Crude Oil (WTI)
Spot Price Per Barrel Jan 2 2020- Jan 21 2021
(nominal) 31 2019 $70
3-month 0.09  -94.3%
$50
1-year 0.10  -93.5%
5-year 0.46  -72.7% $30

10-year 1.12  -41.3% $10

30-year 1.85  -21.0% -$10
Treasury Constant Maturities (inflation indexed) -$30
5-year -1.65  -5176.9%
-$50
10-year -0.99  -747.5%
30-year -0.27  -156.5%
Source: Federal Reserve Statistical Release, Jan 22 2021 Source: http://markets.businessinsider.com/

Currency Rates (units per U.S. dollar), Jan 20 2021

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Canada Dollar 1.27  Spot Price Per MMBTU Jan 2 2020 - Jan 22 2021
Japan Yen 103.82  $3.5
China Yuan 6.49  $3.0
Mexico Peso 19.86  $2.5
$2.0
United Kingdom Pound sterling 0.73  $1.5
Euro Zone Euro 1.17  $1.0

US Dollar Index (DXY) Index 90.29 

Source: Wall Street Journal, Jan 21 2021

Oil and Natural Gas Indicators Jan 22 2021

S&P 500
Jan 3 2019 - Jan 21 2021 Crude Oil (WTI spot price) $46.78 $/barrel 
4,000 Crude Oil (Brent spot price) $50.25 $/barrel 
3,800
3,600 LA Light Sweet $50.14 $/barrel 
3,400
3,200 Mars Blend $49.16 $/barrel 
3,000
2,800 Natural Gas (Henry Hub) $2.59 $/MMBtu 
2,600
2,400 Retail Gasoline (Gulf Coast) $1.84 $/gallon 
2,200 Weekly Rotary Rig Count 32 LA – Land 
Weekly Rotary Rig Count 15 LA – Offshore 
Source: BusinessInsider.com Source: EIA, Baker Hughes, EIA. Rig data for week of Jan 15 2021
 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Interesting articles and commentary on economic
Jan 4 2020 - Dec 5 2020 issues relevant to the Louisiana economy
120,000
 LA Official Public Health Site with Data
100,000
80,000
 LA Workforce Commission Regional COVID Reports
60,000  Brookings on Implications of Weak October Recovery
40,000  Very Cool BLS Beta Data Tool on COVID Impacts
20,000
 Bloomberg on the Bet on Hydrogen Energy
0
 Brookings: How much should we worry about Fed debt?
 Good site for Crisis Management during COVID
Initial Claims 4-Week Avg
 NGA Roadmap for Workforce Recovery

Continued Unemployment Insurance Claims State Employment

Apr 2020 - Nov 2020
Jan 4 2020 - Dec 5 2020
350,000 2,000,000 150,000
300,000
1,950,000 100,000
250,000
200,000 1,900,000 50,000
150,000 0
1,850,000
100,000
-50,000
50,000 1,800,000
0 -100,000
1,750,000
-150,000
1,700,000
-200,000
Continued Claims 4-Week Avg 1,650,000
-250,000
1,600,000 -300,000
Nov 28 Jan 4 Δ previous Δ since Jan
Dec 5 2020 1,550,000
2020 2020 week 4 2020 -350,000

1,500,000 -400,000
Initial Claims 11,780 10,045 1,658 17.3% 610.5% Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20
Continued Claims 75,004 83,338 16,553 -100.0% -100.0%
Employment Mth-over-Mth Emp
Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission, data retrieved Dec 4 2020
 LA COVID Deaths, Total & 7 Day Average Chg Louisiana Currently Hospitalized
The COVID Tracking Project, Oct 1 2020 - Jan 20 2021 The COVID Tracking Project, Oct 1 2020 - Jan 20 2021
9,000 60 2,500
8,000
50
7,000 2,000
6,000 40
5,000 1,500
30
4,000
3,000 20 1,000
2,000
10
1,000
500
0 0

Death Death Increase 7 Day Avg

LA COVID Cases, Total & 7 Day Average Chg Louisiana Continued UIC & Pandemic Claims
The COVID Tracking Project, Oct 1 2020 - Jan 21 2021 Mar 28 2021 - Dec 26 2021, NSA
350,000 4,000
350,000
300,000 3,500
300,000
3,000
250,000 250,000
2,500
200,000 200,000
2,000
150,000 150,000
1,500
100,000 100,000
1,000
50,000 500 50,000

0 0 0

Cases Chg Cases Continued Claims Pandemic Emergency Continued Claims

Southern State Unemployment Rates, Nov 2019 - Nov -2020

Chg Yr- % Chg Yr- Chg Mth- % Chg Mth-

State Nov-19 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20
over-Yr over-Yr over-Mth over-Mth

Alabama 2.4% 13.2% 9.2% 7.9% 8.2% 6.5% 5.4% 4.0% 1.6% 66.7% -1.4% -25.9%

Arkansas 3.1% 10.3% 9.4% 8.3% 7.5% 7.0% 5.7% 5.7% 2.6% 83.9% 0.0% 0.0%

Kentucky 3.8% 16.2% 10.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 6.8% 5.1% 1.3% 34.2% -1.7% -25.0%

Louisiana 5.0% 14.5% 13.9% 10.4% 10.0% 8.1% 9.2% 8.1% 3.1% 62.0% -1.1% -12.0%

Mississippi 5.1% 15.7% 10.4% 9.8% 10.1% 6.9% 7.0% 6.0% 0.9% 17.6% -1.0% -14.3%

Oklahoma 3.2% 14.3% 12.6% 6.7% 7.1% 5.3% 6.1% 5.8% 2.6% 81.3% -0.3% -4.9%

Tennessee 3.1% 15.0% 10.7% 10.1% 10.1% 6.4% 7.2% 5.0% 1.9% 61.3% -2.2% -30.6%

Source: BLS, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Jan 20 2021