5

The Use of Excel Iteration

Simulations in Assessing Risk of
Marketing New Products
Sylvia D. Clark, The Peter J. Tobin College o f Business, St. John's University, New York
clark1094@aol.com

Craig A. Latshaw, The Peter J. Tobin College o f Business, St. John's University, New York
craiglatshaw35@gmail.com

Ariel Napolitano, Nielsen Innovation Practice, New York

Ariel.Napolitano@nielsen.com

Executive Summary Most important, the final part of the paper

This paper addresses the increasing need for
risk assessment in all business areas. Then
the marketing techniques that can establish
unit sales price, possible quantity sold, and
associated standard deviations for a new
product are reviewed. Once mean unit sales
price, unit sales quantity, and the associated
standard deviations are determined, potential
total sales dollars can be estimated.
This is accomplished through the use of an Excel
iterations simulation established by Gornik-
Tomaszewski in 2014. Applying this process
enables marketers to estimate mean total
sales dollars and minimum and maximum total
sales. In addition, this easily-applied, highly-
comprehensible method provides a frequency
distribution of total possible sales dollars and
probabilities of sales outcome ranges.
Introduction
The first part of this paper describes the
need for risk assessment in determining the
total possible sales outcomes of marketing a
new product. The second part summarizes
how marketers determine the potential sales
price and the possible quantities sold for a
new product.
introduces a possible new way for marketers to
assess the risk associated with the prospective
sales price and quantity to be sold, using an
Excel iterations simulation to quantify the risk
by calculating the probabilities associated with
a new product introduction.
A second major advantage of this simulation
model is that it can easily produce multiple
iterations, with other randomly selected values
of the uncertain elements in the model. In this
case, the uncertain variables would be the unit
sales price, the possible quantities sold, and
their standard deviations (Gornik-Tomaszewski
and Shoaf, 2015).
These replications can further represent to
marketers the variation in results caused by
uncertain inputs to the process, in order to
better consider the level of risk inherent in
marketing a new product.
Objective
The objective of this paper is to review risk
assessment literature and marketing techniques
to estimate a new product's unit sales price
and sales quantity. Finally, the paper uses Excel
iterations to establish mean, standard deviation,
and minimum and maximum total sales
dollars. In addition, a frequency distribution
of potential total sales is provided along with
probability percentages of sales ranges.
Literature Review
Risk Assessment
Risk analysis is part of every decision we make.
We are constantly faced with uncertainty,
ambiguity, and variability. And even though we
have unprecedented access to information, we
cannot accurately predict the future (Lucintel,
n.d.; Richards, n.d.).
In reference to risk assessment, Gornik-
Tomaszewski and Shoaf describe the
consequences of the lack of risk analysis skill
and experience in the financial service industry.
This was a challenge for the majority of top
management (Harner, 2009).
Management of risk within this industry
was normally governed by computerized
risk measurement systems based on intricate
financial models. While this existed for
financial products, knowledge of risk
assessment was absent among employees
(Gornik-Tomaszewski and Shoaf, 2015; Beasley,
et. al., 2010).
The aftermath of the financial crisis in the
early 21st century exposed the absence of
risk management in all industries. The
importance of risk management in managerial
duties was only beginning to emerge as a
significant competency and was lacking in
top management who ascended to their
positions by the time of the financial crisis
(Beasley, et. al., 2010).
The use of market research methods to decide
price and quantity as well as to evaluate
associated risk allows organizations to gain
an understanding of the risk exposure this
product could bring. Doing so could facilitate
the strategic decision-making process by
reducing risk.
The potential benefits of applying market
research tools when determining product
price and quantity are frequently overlooked.
Some methods, such as risk analysis, are vastly
underused and disregarded when it comes to
decision-making (Manning, 2010).
Quantitative analytic tools incorporate
complex mathematical, scientific, and statistical
frameworks, providing detailed and thorough
quantification and measurement of risk. These
measurements help create a comprehensive
and sound strategy that will guide company
goals and achievements.
[This] paper introduces a possible
new way for marketers to
assess the risk associated with
the prospective sales price and
quantity to be sold.
Very often, however, risk assessments are not
performed due to their complexity. Many do
not understand their business application,
stemming from lack of training (Hulett, 2004).
An important component of evaluating
risk of possible outcomes is probabilities. A
probability distribution is a statistical model
that shows the possible outcomes of a
particular event or course of action as well as
the statistical likelihood of each event.
For example, a company might have a
probability distribution for the change in sales
given a particular marketing campaign. The
values on the "tails," or the left and right end
of the distribution, are much less likely to occur
than those in the middle of the curve (Richards,
n.d.).
Probability distributions can be used to create
scenario analyses. A scenario analysis uses
probability distributions to create several
theoretically-distinct possibilities for the
outcome of a particular course of action or
future event. One practical use for probability
 The Use o f Excel Ite ra tio n Sim ulations in Assessing Risk o f M a rk e tin g N e w Products
distributions and scenario analysis in business
is to predict future sales levels. It is essentially
impossible to predict the precise value of a
future sales level; however, businesses still need
to be able to plan for future events.
Using a scenario analysis based on a probability
distribution can help a company frame its
possible future values in terms of a likely sales
level and worst-case and best-case scenarios.
By doing so, the company can base its business
plans on the likely scenario but still be aware of
the alternative possibilities (Richards, n.d.).
In addition to predicting future sales levels,
probability distribution can be a useful tool
for evaluating risk. Consider, for example, a
company considering entering a new business
line. If the company needs to generate
$500,000 in revenue in order to break even
and their probability distribution tells them
that there is a 90 percent chance that revenues
will be more than $500,000, the company
knows roughly what level of risk it is facing
if it decides to pursue that new business line
(Richards, n.d.).
Risk analysis is part of every
decision we make.
When a normal distribution is employed, the
user simply defines the mean, and a standard
deviation to describe the variation about the
mean. Values in the middle near the mean are
most likely to occur. It is symmetric and is used
to describe many natural phenomena, such as
people's heights, inflation rates and energy
prices (Richards, n.d.).
Marketing techniques to
determine sales price, quantity,
and standard deviations
In attempting to use risk analysis from
a marketing perspective related to the
introduction of a new product, total sales
comprise an estimate of the potential unit
7
sales price and number of units. The following
marketing methods can be used to determine
unit sales price, number of units, and their
standard deviations.
U nit Sales Price
Stenger (2008) details many of the most
common pricing strategies. For a new product,
Stenger recommends the Gabor-Granger
model, Price Sensitivity Measurements, and
Monadic Concept cells to price the product
individually. For competitive product pricing,
he suggests Brand-Price Trade-Off (BPTO) and
Simple Discrete Choice (Stenger, 2008).
The Gabor-Granger model depends on answers
from closed-ended questions to determine
purchase price and intent. The indirect Gabor-
Granger technique assigns a price to an item
and, using a scale from one to five (with one
being the most willing), asks consumers to rate
how willing they would be to purchase the item.
If the consumer is willing to pay the
predetermined price, the survey is re­
administered with a higher established price
to see whether the respondent is willing
to pay more, and if so, how much more. If
consent is not given for a higher price, the test
is repeated with a lower value. The Gabor-
Granger technique finds the highest price
consumers will pay and their likelihood of
paying each value.
The benefits of indirect pricing models include
better accuracy, simple administration, and
reasoning for purchase decisions. The ordinal
nature of the scale, however, precludes
calculation of means and standard deviations
based on inherent measurement limitations
(Lipovetsky, Magnan and Polzi, 2011).
The van Westendorp Model is an example
that uses Price Sensitivity Measurements.
This method is commonly referred to as the
"psychological price" model. This method
is most commonly used to balance value
against price. It analyzes the common concept
that low price is an indicator of low quality
and vice versa.
The model assumes that reasonable prices exist
in every category and for all levels of perceived
quality. With this in mind, consumers have
intrinsic upper and lower bounds for price
and quality.
The potential benefits of applying
market research tools when
determining product price and
quantity are frequently overlooked.
To gather results, four indirect questions are
posed to establish prices that are classified as
"too cheap," "cheap," "expensive," and "too
expensive." Results are plotted on a graph
and the matrix of intersection establishes
results. The point of "optimal pricing" is
defined by the intersection of "too cheap" and
"too expensive," while the "indifference price
point" is defined by "cheap" and "expensive"
(Lipovetsky, Magnan and Polzi, 2011).
In the Monadic Concept, each respondent
is shown only one proposal, with one price,
and asked his purchase interest. If more
prices need to be measured, new respondents
must be added to the experiment and polled.
While easy to understand, execute, and
incorporate, this model is very expensive to
apply. Further, measures of purchase intent
are known to predict much more reliably on
the negative end of the scale than on the
positive end (Stenger, 2008).
Brand-Price Trade-Off (BPTO) and Simple
Discrete Choice are common competitive
pricing models. The differentiating factor
between the Gabor-Granger and BPTO model
is that respondents are presented fixed prices
for competing products, instead of for a single
item, and asked which they would be most
likely to buy.
As w ith the Gabor-Granger model, once a
selection is made, the experiment is repeated
with a change in price. By analyzing customer
decisions, researchers can weigh how economic
impacts of price changes serve as "balanced
value" positions for price positioning ("Pricing
Research", n.d.).
Discrete Choice Models are frequently preferred
over BPTO, as they provide methodical
information on price sensitivity and competition
(Stenger, 2008; "Pricing Research", n.d.).
Unit Sales
Determining the size of a potential market
is arguably one of the most important
components of marketing a new product.
Many firms mistakenly focus on product quality
and neglect quantity estimations. They fail to
realize that "qualitative information cannot
reliably be used for quantitative decisions" and
survival of a start-up.
The same can be said of the introduction
of a new product (Waldes, 1995). Failure
to establish a proper market and identify
potential customers can lead to business
failure. Conducting market research allows
marketers to assess prospective demand. It
enables companies to get an estimate of
quantity needed (Dahl, 2011).
A starting point begins by firms asking
themselves a series of questions:
- Does my product satisfy a market need?
- Who are potential customers and where can
they be found?
- Does competition exist and do I have a
competitive advantage?
Next, they should solicit product feedback
though surveys and personal interviews. Last,
 The Use o f Excel Ite ra tio n S im ulations in Assessing Risk o f M a rk e tin g N ew Products
they should test their theory. The "most
valuable feedback you can get is whether
someone will actually hand over money for"
the product (Dahl, 2011).
In addition, in his article "The Missing Link,"
John Waldes claims that in order for businesses
to predict quantitative estimations, they must
first assemble a "tool kit" with tw o essential/
vital components. The first tool is a "market
model that simulates the outcome of potential
marketing strategies."
The second tool "must test the market
attractiveness of fully developed marketing
strategies" or methods known as
"controlled experiments."
Other essential characteristics of a market
model that provide a manager with decision
support include building the model with a
multitude of choice factors, integrating the
competitive market environment, maintaining
the integrity of respondent choice structure,
and incorporating a sufficient number of
respondents to accurately represent the
variance in choice structure. This "tool kit"
better enables a firm to correctly estimate
market size (Waldes, 1995).
Creating a product prototype helps to
establish the Minimum Viable Product (MVP).
As defined by Eric Ries, "A Minimum Viable
Product is that version of a new product that
allows a team to collect the maximum amount
of validated learning about customers with the
least e ffo rt" ("Minimum Viable Product", n.d.).
It is a company-building approach and
development technique that creates a
product with sufficient features to satisfy
early adopters. "The final, complete set of
features is only designed and developed after
considering feedback from the product's
initial users."(Janssen, n.d.) This is where, "the
company has to come up w ith a version of its
product that is complete enough to
9
demonstrate the value it brings to the users" or
a Minimum Viable Product (Dobrila, 2012).
This is analogous to a company's creating a
product website to size up the market and
determine how many customers are willing to
pay for the item before it exists. The MVP can
either confirm or refute the value and growth
hypotheses (Dobrila, 2012).
Excel Iteration Simulation Example
in Assessing th e Risk o f M arketing a
N ew Product
In attempting to use an Excel iteration
simulation in assessing risk, the unit sales price,
unit quantity and their associated standard
deviations based on the employment of the
marketing techniques discussed above is vital.
Once these items are determined, a simple
simulation model using Excel iterations as
proposed by Gornik-Tomaszewski and Shoaf
can be used to assess risk.
Probability distributions can be
used...to predict future sales levels.
Although they used this method for accounting
and finance issues, they also stated that this
method could be used in many business
decisions (Gornik-Tomaszewski, et al., 2014).
In this simulation example (Exhibit 1), the
mean unit sales price and quantity are set at
$1,000 and 2000, respectively. The standard
deviations are assumed to be $100 for unit sales
price and 200 for unit quantity. These numbers
are merely examples of possible outcomes that
might be projected.
At this point, the iterations for unit sales price
and quantity are determined using Excel's
random number generator. For the unit sales
price, the Excel function is =NORM.INV(RAND(),
($B$5), $B$6), with B5 being the mean unit
sales price and B6 being the unit sales price
standard deviation.

The sales quantity function is =NORM.
INV(RAND(), ($C$5), $C$6).
C5 is the mean quantity and C6 is the quantity
standard deviation.
Determining the size of a potential
market is arguably one of the
most important components of
marketing a new product.
Using these Excel functions assumes th a t
the inherent uncertainty in these tw o
factors is stochastic (random) in nature,
and the probability distribution fo r each of
these random variables is normal (Gornik-
Tomaszewski, 2014).
Once these functions are used, as
recommended by Gornik-Tomaszewski, 100
iterations are used to determine possible
outcomes. Instead o f giving a single estimated
value fo r these tw o variables, the 100 iterations
estimates possible outcomes w ith the proposed
mean o f the variables and the uncertainty as
reflected in the standard deviations (Gornik-
Tomaszewski, 2014).
A fte r the unit sales price and unit quantity
are estimated fo r each iteration, the total
sales dollars (Total Sales) are determined
by multiplying each unit sales price by its
corresponding unit quantity. The iteration
results are then summarized to determine
the mean (=AVERAGE(D12:D111)), standard
deviation (=STDEVPA(D12:D111)), minimum sales
dollars (=MIN(D11:D111)), and maximum total
sales dollars (=MAX(D11:D111)).
The next step would be to create a frequency
distribution table. A frequency table provides
the distribution o f possible total sales
outcomes. The table w ill provide data ranges
and retain a link to the data.
In Excel, this can be done using the FREQUENCY
formula, which calculates how often certain
10
values occur w ithin a specified range and
then returns a vertical array o f numbers. The
syntax fo r the form ula is =FREQUENCY(data_
array,bins_array), where data_ array is the data
set th a t contains the values fo r which we w ant
to count frequencies and bins_array contains
the intervals we w ant to use to group the
values (Wayne and Albright, 2011).
Because FREQUENCY returns an array, it must
be entered as an array formula. That requires
selecting a range o f adjacent cells into which
we w ant the returned distribution to appear.
Furthermore, the number o f elements in the
returned array w ill be one greater than the
number o f elements in bins_array. The extra
element in the returned array returns the
count o f any values above the highest interval
(Wayne and Albright, 2011).
Conducting market research...
enables companies to get an
estimate of quantity needed.
The frequency table appears in cells H6 to I9 in
Figure 1. Cells H6:H18 contain the upper lim it
fo r each interval, so they represent the bins_
array. The ranges in the table are established
by the user in creating the model so they w ill
correspond w ith the data.
In this example, the ranges selected are 0-0,
0-1,000,000, 1,000,000-1,200,000, 1,200,000-
1,400,000 and so on. Note th a t cell H19 lists
>$3,200,000, which is the overflow cell fo r any
values above the highest range.
Next, we need to highlight the range I6 to 119.
Then type in =FREQUENCY(E12:E111,H6:H19)
and then press CTRL+SHIFT+ENTER, which
enters it as an array formula. If the form ula
is not entered as an array formula, there
w ill be only one result in cell H6. If entered
correctly, results w ill appear in each o f the cells
selected. The Total is determined by entering
=SUM(I6:I19).
 The Use o f Excel Ite ra tio n Sim ulations in Assessing Risk o f M a rk e tin g N e w Products 11

The final step in this Excel spreadsheet is to Since a normal distribution was used to create
determine the probability percentages of the sales iterations, the normal distribution
a range of sales outcomes. The ranges are function is used. Cell H18 is the upper range
determined by the user. The number of range ($3,600,000), E116 is the mean sales amount
probabilities is also up to the user. of the Excel iterations ($2,019,420), and E117
is the standard deviation ($272,421). "True"
The probabilities are located in the bottom is entered to determine the cumulative
right of Exhibit 1. In this example, the total distribution function.
sales ranges used are from $1,600,000 to
$3,200,000, $1,800,000 to $3,200,000, etc. The second step in this function is to subtract
the low range ($1,600,000) in cell H10. The
These probabilities are determined by using rest of the formula is the same as the first part
the Excel sales iterations mean and standard of the function. The mean (El 16), standard
deviations located in cells E116 and E117. Using deviation (E117), and True are entered. The
Cell G13 in Exhibit 1 as an example of how to result is 94 percent.
calculate the probabilities of sales ranges from
$1,600,000 to $3,200,000, the following Excel Finally, the same function is used for the other
function is used: sales ranges. The only difference is that the
lower range is changed to $1,800,000 (Cell H11),
NORM.DIST(H18,E116,E117,TRUE)-NORM. $2,000,000 (H12) and so on.
DIST(H10,E116,E117,TRUE).

Exhibit 1:
N e w Product Total Sales Forecast using an Excel Iterations Simulation

1
2 NEW PRODUCT TOTAL SALES FORECAST W IT H SIM ULATIO N
a
4
"S UrTrtSales Price Quantity Sold Frequency Tab le f a r 1 0 0 Iterations
6 M ean $ 1,000 2,000 Total Sales Ranges Frequency
7 St. Dev: $ . ; m o 200 0 0
' 8: 1,0 00 ,0 0 0 0
9 1,200,000 "0

is Sim ulation: 1.400.000 2

1.1 Ite ra tion U n it Sales Price Q u a n tity Sold To tal Sales 1.600.000 2
P 986 ~$ 1,894 S 1,866,664 IpOWOQ 48
13 1,146 $ 1,935 $ 2,216,982 2 000,000
, 24
14 1,064 $ 1,989 $ 2,116,357 :
2 200,000 26
3 5 1,096 $ 2,234 $ 2,448,971 2,400,OK) 21 •

4 $ 967 $ 2,148 $ 2,076,972 2,600,000

5 $ 982 $ 2,260 $ 2,218,298 2,800,000 ; 2:
S: 6 $ 1,083 S 2,166 $ 2,346,629 3,000,000 0
i 7 $ 962 $ 1,935 $ 1,861,611 3,200,000 0
P 8 $ 863 S 2,068 $ 1,785,406 Greater than 3,200,00) 0
. 9 $ 1,125 $ 1,967 $ 2,212,598 100 Total
10 $ 957 $ 1,451 $ 1,388,507
1 100 $ 786 $ 1,866 $ 1,465,644
Probability Total Sales Range
94% 1)600,800 to 3,200,000

’ Mean: $ 2,019,420 79% : 1,800,000 to 3,200,000

3 StOev: $ 272,421
Ji Min: $ 1,306,229 53% 2,000,000 to 3,200,000
i M ax: S 2,779.800
m 25% 2,200,000 to 3,200,000
; 32
33 8% 2,400,000 to 3,200,000 :
34
335':

The results from the Exhibit 1 simulation
provide important information that marketers
can use to gain an understanding of the
possible variation in total sales, and thus,
the risks associated with a new product
introduction.
The “most valuable feedback you
can get is whether someone will
actually hand over money for the ”
product. Darren Dahl, 2011
First, through use of the Excel 100 iterations,
the resultant mean, standard deviation,
minimum and maximum are better estimations
of possible outcomes than those that would be
obtained through only a few iterations.
In addition, once the Excel spreadsheet is
created, the calculations may be run
multiple times in order to see the variation
in sales outcomes. These multiple runs may
also include changing the means and
standard deviations for the unit sales price
and quantity sold.
The second information supplied comes
from the frequency distribution table. From
the table, a marketer can see the normal
distribution of the 100 iterations of total sales.
In Exhibit 1, the frequency table shows that the
highest possibility of total sales ranges from
$1,800,000 to $2,400,000.
Once the Excel spreadsheet is
created, the calculations may be
run multiple times in order to see
the variation in sales outcomes.
Finally, the most important result is the
probability computations. These calculations
quantify the probabilities of sales outcome
ranges. In this simulation example, the
probabilities of total sales ranges are 94
percent for sales ranging from $1,600,000
to $3,200,000.
12
At the same time, the probability of sales
ranging from $2,400,000 to $3,200,000 is
only eight percent. The probabilities for sales
ranges between these tw o extremes are
also determined.
These probabilities are important because with
any new product introduction, the company
has probably determined the minimum sales
required for success. For example, if the
company has determined that the minimum
total sales needs needed is $2,200,000, the
probability of this outcome is only 25 percent.
At the same time, if the minimum sales needed
are $1,800,000, the probability is 79 percent.
It serves as a great learning
tool for students, also offering
potential application in their future
business careers.
Conclusion
With the growing emphasis on assessing
risk across all business decisions, Excel iteration
simulations offer a promising and extremely
simple way of quantifying risk. In this
paper, the method was applied to the risk
assessment of total sales associated with a new
product introduction.
The example utilized amply illustrates both
the pedagogical and practical benefits of the
method. It serves as a great learning tool for
students, also offering potential application in
their future business careers.
Constructing this Excel iterations spreadsheet
is relatively easy and the results can be easily
understood. Finally, once the spreadsheet is
constructed, it can be used repeatedly for other
assessments of possible total sales estimations.
 The Use o f Excel Ite ra tio n S im ulations in Assessing Risk o f M a rk e tin g N ew Products
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