You are on page 1of 15

See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/307555140

New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain regions – opportunities and risks

Article  in  Climatic Change · November 2016


DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1771-5

CITATIONS READS

79 779

6 authors, including:

Wilfried Haeberli Christian Huggel


University of Zurich University of Zurich
312 PUBLICATIONS   18,084 CITATIONS    347 PUBLICATIONS   13,457 CITATIONS   

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

Yvonne Schaub Anton J. Schleiss


University of Zurich École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
22 PUBLICATIONS   696 CITATIONS    827 PUBLICATIONS   6,237 CITATIONS   

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:

Proyecto Glaciares + View project

Bend and straight open-channel experimental research View project

All content following this page was uploaded by Wilfried Haeberli on 11 October 2017.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.


Climatic Change
DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1771-5

New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain


regions – opportunities and risks

Wilfried Haeberli 1 & Michael Buetler 2 &


Christian Huggel 1 & Therese Lehmann Friedli 3 &
Yvonne Schaub 1 & Anton J. Schleiss 4

Received: 8 February 2016 / Accepted: 9 August 2016


# Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Abstract In connection with the ongoing disappearance of glaciers in cold mountains, a great
number of new lakes come into existence. The sites and approximate formation time of such
potential new lakes can be realistically modelled. This provides an important knowledge base
for planning the management of at least the larger ones among such lakes. New water bodies
can markedly increase the hazard and risk potential for down-valley areas in the long term,
especially in relation to impact/flood waves triggered by rock/ice avalanches from the steep icy
peaks surrounding them. However, they also offer opportunities for use in connection with
tourism, water supply and hydropower production. Legal regulations and aspects of landscape
protection and nature conservation have to be thereby carefully considered. Possible synergies
and conflicts exist; they can be anticipated at an early stage by a matrix-type analysis of
interrelations between the different perspectives involved. A corresponding inter- and trans-
disciplinary study was performed for the currently glacierized areas of the Swiss Alps. The
results of this study may serve as an example for dealing with the consequences of rapid
climate-induced changes in other populated regions with rugged icy mountains, such as the
Peruvian Cordilleras or the Himalaya-Karakoram region.

Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1771-5)


contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

* Wilfried Haeberli
wilfried.haeberli@geo.uzh.ch

1
Geography Department, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland
2
Gloriastrasse 66, 8044 Zurich, Switzerland
3
Center for Regional Economic Development (CRED), University of Bern, 3001 Bern, Switzerland
4
Laboratory of Hydraulic Constructions (LCH), Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL),
1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
Climatic Change

1 Introduction

As a consequence of continuing atmospheric temperature rise, glacier and permafrost land-


scapes in cold mountain ranges undergo drastic changes. Such changes have the potential to
affect large surrounding regions (cf. supplementary material S1). Glaciers in most icy moun-
tain ranges are shrinking rapidly and may even largely disappear within the coming decades
(Zemp et al. 2006; 2015; cf. supplementary material S2). Numerous small and large new lakes
form where topographic depressions (glacier-bed overdeepenings) become exposed as glaciers
are vanishing (Figure 1). These lakes are – albeit less than the original glaciers – attractive
landscape elements and interesting for hydropower production and freshwater supply. How-
ever, they can also pose the inherent danger of generating lake outburst floods. When assessing
the risks related to the latter the decreasing stability of slopes on nearby icy peaks affected by
glacier de-buttressing and permafrost degradation also needs to be addressed (Haeberli et al.
2016).
Adaptation strategies to such developments should aim at assessing/reducing risks related
to the new conditions and try to make the best use of possible new options. This requires
holistic approaches to be applied for anticipating changes in complex/highly interconnected
natural systems. In addition, trends and options of human action/expansion and of saving
economic costs need to be addressed if risks can be managed or even reduced (Faulkner 2001;
McEvoy et al. 2008; Ritchie 2008).
Simulating future landscapes and related processes in still glacier-covered and permafrost-
affected regions is an emerging research field providing a knowledge base and planning tool

Fig. 1 A new lake formed since the turn of the century at the retreating Trift glacier (Swiss Alps; cf. Figure 2). A
hanging bridge has been installed across a deep gorge at the lower lake end to enable access to a mountain hut of
the Swiss Alpine Club on the orographic right valley side (left side in the image). The hut could be reached by
crossing the glacier surface before lake formation. This hanging bridge and the new lake have become a
remarkable tourist attraction. An early warning system has been installed to protect tourists and people in the
valley against possible impact/flood waves triggered by ice or rock avalanches into the lake. Plans exist for
creating a lake reservoir for hydropower production (and flood protection?) with a dam; this reservoir would
ultimately reach a level higher than the that of the bridge (cf. Figure 3). Photograph J. Alean 2007
Climatic Change

for multiple users (Figure 2; cf. supplementary material S3). Such a product of science can
show options for future action (Huggel et al. 2015). However, the goals of any envisaged
developments – for instance spatial planning, landscape protection or water supply – must be
harmonized among relevant stakeholders. Moreover, ways of transforming the results into the
real world have to be found, such as the funding of infrastructure. Various possible synergies
exist but potential legal and/or political conflicts may also arise, and time for finding
sustainable solutions can be limited.

Fig. 2 Simulation of bed overdeepenings as sites of potential future lake formation at the glaciers Trift (left) and
Rhone (right) in the Swiss Alps, with (top) and without (bottom) glacier cover. Computing was performed with
the GlabTop model (Linsbauer et al. 2012) and digital terrain information from the 1970s, i.e. well before the
formation of the new lakes at the lower margins of Trift glacier (left; cf. Figure 1) and Rhone glacier (right; cf.
supplementary material S3). A system of lakes is likely to form and must be considered in connection with plans
for hydropower production, flood protection, touristic development or landscape protection. The existing
hydropower lake reservoirs Grimsel (large) and Räterichsboden (smaller) of the Kraftwerke Oberhasli are visible
in the lower right corner. The hydropower lake reservoir of Göscheneralp can be seen in the upper-central part.
Simulation and graph A. Linsbauer, University of Zurich
Climatic Change

A comprehensive inter- and transdisciplinary study on opportunities and risks related to


new lakes forming in de-glaciating areas was carried out in the Swiss Alps (NELAK 2013).
The corresponding experience and knowledge base is summarized in this paper. This may help
with comparable studies in other populated high-mountain regions of the world. First steps in
this direction have been undertaken in the meantime. An inventory of possible future lakes has
been prepared for the Peruvian Cordilleras (Colonia et al. 2015), and thousands of sites with
glacier-bed overdeepenings and potential future lake formation have been spatially simulated
for the entire Himalaya-Karakoram region with a glacier surface area of over 40,000 km2
(Linsbauer et al. 2016). Current and future risks from glacial lake outburst floods have been
assessed in an integrative and anticipatory approach for the Himachal Pradesh, India (Allen
et al. 2016). Such efforts must be understood as initial steps of a continual reflection process
that requires going beyond individual scientific disciplines.

2 Possible uses and hazards related to new lakes

The new lakes are primarily interesting with a view to questions of water supply, hydropower
production, touristic development, hazard prevention and landscape protection/nature
conservation.

2.1 Water supply

The massive shrinking of short- and long-term snow and ice reserves in cold mountains causes
a strong change in the seasonality of melt water runoff and water supply to lower valleys and
surrounding lowlands (Seibert et al. 2014). Serious water shortages for settlements and
agriculture can result in regions with pronounced warm/dry seasons, especially in combination
with socio-economic stresses (Drenkhan et al. 2015; French et al. 2015). The new lakes could
therefore partially replace the vanishing melt water supply in critical situations. The available
water volume in naturally formed depressions, however, is strongly limited. In the Swiss Alps,
for instance, the total water volume of the anticipated future lakes is some 3 % of the presently
existing glacier volume (Linsbauer et al. 2012), and roughly corresponds to that of one average
annual precipitation sum over the still glacier-covered surface. At best, small percentages of
the lake volume can be used for freshwater supply, but even this limited use would require
major infrastructure (tunnels, dams) and corresponding investment. Therefore, realistic options
exist for a few cases only, especially where large lake volumes could be enhanced by dam
construction (cf. Farinotti et al. 2016). Moreover, new lakes – whether natural or artificial –
must be carefully examined with respect to (1) the resulting change in the hazard/risk situation,
(2) the regulations concerning protected areas and/or (3) the water management in relation to
hydropower schemes. Much more promising perspectives relate to combined multipurpose
projects as discussed in the following sections. In many cases, solutions for future water-
supply problems are in any case primarily associated with socioeconomic drivers (Reynard
et al. 2014).

2.2 Hydropower

Larger new lakes constitute possible new reservoirs with high potential energy for hydropower
production. Examples of detailed studies on the use of potential future lakes have been
Climatic Change

presented by Terrier et al. (2011, 2015) for the Swiss Alps (Figure 3). In intensely-exploited
regions such as the European Alps, highly flexible energy storage in high-mountain water
reservoirs with pump-storage capacity can play a key role in complex multi-component energy
supply systems. Energy stored by pumping water to higher reservoirs in times of energy
surplus (from other sources such as wind, solar or nuclear energy) can be accessed quasi
immediately in case of a sudden peak demand. This possibility also constitutes a key safety

Fig. 3 Planned arch dam at Trift glacier, Swiss Alps, with lake existing today (top) and with full reservoir
(bottom). Note that in comparison with the situation in 2007 (Figure 1), the connection between the steep glacier
part and the flatter tongue disrupted in 2013. This has created a transitory increase in the hazard related to impact
waves produced by ice avalanches into the lake. Further glacier shrinkage is likely to decrease this hazard soon,
because of the disappearance of the steep upper glacier margin and of the detached glacier tongue; the latter
currently provides a smooth ramp in a potential avalanche trajectory. Continued growth of the proglacial delta
will further reduce potential impact waves. However, hazards from destabilizing lateral valley walls as a result of
glacial de-buttressing will continue to exist for extended time periods into the future. The upper picture illustrates
the flood retention capacity of the reservoir project. Photo composition by Kraftwerke Oberhasli (KWO)
Climatic Change

factor for avoiding the collapses of large energy networks. Fundamental problems in planning
such options relate to the functioning of the energy market and the corresponding uncertainty
about the energy price (Biot 2015). Nevertheless, under conditions of a free-electricity market,
hydropower is the most competitive peak energy with high flexibility (Schleiss und Oberrauch
2014). Multipurpose projects offer promising perspectives; these include aspects of water
supply and hazard protection, or efficient sediment traps protecting already existing down-
valley reservoirs from rapid sediment infill. From the legal point of view, a string of acts and
other legislation in the fields of spatial planning, water rights, landscape and water protection,
nature conservation and preservation of cultural heritage must be taken into account with any
construction project.

2.3 Tourism

Glaciers represent an important element of the tourism supply chain in cold mountains (Aall
and Hoyer 2005; Espiner and Becken 2014; Scott and Jones 2005). Lakes can be important
elements of landscape diversity, too. To some minor degree, the new lakes in de-glaciating
areas may compensate for the loss of landscape diversity and attractiveness caused by
vanishing glaciers in the sense of a “pulling power of the glacier experience” (Espiner and
Becken 2014). Any expansion of the supply in the tourism system in a particular area
necessitates protection against hazards in potentially unstable environments. This leads to
cost/benefit-aspects that go beyond costs resulting from damage to infrastructure (Lehmann
Friedli and Schaub 2013; Tzu-Ming 2014; Walters et al. 2015; cf. supplementary material S4).
The new lakes in high-mountain regions are potentially dangerous beauties.

2.4 Hazard prevention

Floods and debris flows from lake outbursts can cause disastrous damage and high numbers of
fatalities (Carey et al. 2012a; Clague and O’Connor 2014). With the formation of new lakes
taking place closer and closer to high and steep icy peaks, the probability of impact waves from
rock/ice avalanches into lakes is increasing (Haeberli et al. 2016). For the de-glaciated Alps, the
area from which rock avalanches can detach and reach lakes is expected to increase by a factor
around 3. The same is expected for the disposition intensity defined as a combination of factors
favouring slope destabilization (Figure 4; Schaub 2015). This situation is likely to persist far
into the future, because larger lakes will exist for extended time periods. In addition, changing
surface/subsurface ice conditions (glacier de-buttressing, permafrost degradation) affect slope
stability over centuries to millennia (Deline et al. 2014). Peak discharges from lake outbursts
can far exceed values from precipitation-induced floods, causing rapid flows and devastation
over distances of tens of kilometers (Cenderelli and Wohl 2001). Anticipating rapid and far-
reaching mass movements from destabilized slopes that interact with lakes, especially in
relation to permafrost degradation and glacier retreat, requires both integrated assessment of
the entire process chain (cf. Khanal et al. 2015) and anticipatory risk management (Frey et al.
2016). Considerable experience exists concerning measures for increasing lake safety; lake-
level lowering is a widely-used practice (Haeberli et al. 2001; Kääb et al. 2004; Portocarrero
2013), while flood retention in flat lower parts of potential trajectories or at lakes situated in
lower parts of the involved catchments (cf. the case of Lake No 1 in Haeberli et al. 2001) can be
an important option, especially in multipurpose projects.
Climatic Change

Fig. 4 Rock Avalanche Impact Disposition (RAID) index for all natural and artificial lakes in Switzerland above
1500 m a.s.l. existing in the 25 m DEM of swisstopo (“current condition”, top) and, in addition, for all possible
future lakes modelled by Linsbauer et al (2012) in still glacier-covered areas (“de-glaciated Swiss Alps”, bottom).
This impact index defines the possibility of a lake being reached by rock avalanches and the corresponding
likelihood defined by the factors rock-wall slope, trajectory slope, lithology, degrading permafrost and deglaci-
ation. The size of the circle indicates the rank of the lake according to its impact index, while the colour indicates
the robustness of the rank. From Schaub (2015; cf. detailed discussion there)
Climatic Change

Fig. 5 The tongue of Aletsch glacier, the largest glacier in the European Alps and the key element of the UNESCO
World Natural Heritage Swiss Alps Jungfrau-Aletsch, established in 2001. Even this large glacier is likely to
disappear almost completely according to realistic warming scenarios. A sequence of medium to large lakes will
probably form during the coming decades. Especially the lakes higher up in the catchment, probably forming in the
second part of the century, will be surrounded by very high and steep slopes that tend to slowly destabilize as a
consequence of glacial de-buttressing and permafrost degradation. Photograph F. Paul, August 1992

2.5 Landscape protection

Numerous regions with glaciers and ice-clad peaks are under special protection as national
reserves, national parks, wilderness areas, biosphere reserves or special landmarks. Concerning
glacier areas global warming overruns local to national protection goals; the landscapes cannot
be kept in their current state but will be heavily impacted in their appearance and functioning.
For example, the key feature of the UNESCO World Heritage Jungfrau-Aletsch in the Swiss
Alps, is Aletsch glacier, also the largest glacier in the Alps (Figure 5). Within this century, this
large ice body will most likely thin, retreat, disintegrate and give way to a landscape of bare
rocks, debris, sparse vegetation, degrading permafrost and a series of new lakes (Haeberli et al.
2016). This strong and dramatic change means a new identity has to be developed for this
region. The Huascarán National Park in the Cordillera Blanca contains numerous retreating
glaciers and new lakes. What kind and extent of development for tourism, hazard prevention or
hydropower production is appropriate here in accordance with spatial planning, transport laws
and the protection goals? Any new exploitation generally tends to result in additional
infrastructures, which in turn increase the pressure on landscape and biotopes even more.

3 Potential synergies and conflicts

All options concerning future developments with new lakes in de-glaciating high-mountain
landscapes have their advantages and disadvantages. Synergies and/or conflicts are possible
and to be expected. Decisions must be based on a careful evaluation of all aspects concerning
complex geo-/ecosystems, human-environment relations, differing perceptions and diverse
perspectives for the future. In such a context, even the polarity between synergy and conflict
Climatic Change

can become diffuse, if not ambivalent or even contradictory. The following brief and general
example of a matrix analysis (Figure 6) provides a first impression. It is based on experience
and a few case studies in Switzerland and Peru (Carey et al. 2012a, b; Lehmann Friedli and
Schaub 2013; NELAK 2013), but may be taken as a starting point for more in-depth
evaluations and integrative/participative planning at national to local levels elsewhere. The
matrix enables an inter-comparison between the primary aspects for the management of future
lakes with respect to potential synergies (upper part, green to white colours) and potential
conflicts (lower part, red to yellow colours).
Interesting potential synergies (dark green in Figure 6) mainly exist in relation to multi-
purpose projects for flood retention, hydropower and water supply. Laguna Parón in the
Cordillera Blanca – with a maximum volume of 79 million m3 the largest lake in the Rio
Santa watershed – is not a “new” lake but was transformed in the 1970s and 1980s into such a
multipurpose structure by regulating the lake level via an artificial tunnel through bedrock
(Carey et al. 2012a; Portocarrero 2013). Already earlier (in 1951), it had withheld two outburst
floods from Laguna Artesoncocha in the upper catchment. With an adequate freeboard, it can
even absorb a large potential outburst flood from a new lake that now starts to form higher up
in the catchment, at the tongue of Glaciar Artesonraju. A new lake is also expected to form
towards the middle of the century at Glacier de Corbassière in the Swiss Alps (Terrier et al.
2011). Construction of a lake reservoir with regulation of the lake level would enable pump-
storage in combination with the already existing Lac de Mauvoisin. In addition, it could create
an important retention capacity with respect to other lakes that will probably form further up-
valley at the foot of the steep icy slopes of Grand Combin during the second half of the
century. The fact that many such areas are situated in protected perimeters presents an
additional aspect to be taken into consideration. Access infrastructure in connection with large
projects can support economically-interesting but also ecologically-questionable touristic
developments.
Construction for hydropower, flood retention, water supply, touristic infrastructure or
corresponding multipurpose projects can be in strong conflict (intense red in Figure 6) with
the applicable legal acts and codes, principles and goals of landscape protection, and nature
conservation. This is especially the case for national reserves, national parks, biosphere

Fig. 6 Matrix of potential synergies (upper part, green to white colours) and conflicts (lower part, red to yellow
colours) concerning the management of new lakes in the Swiss Alps
Climatic Change

reserves, wilderness areas, etc., which are already under protection. Conflicts may also arise
between hazard prevention and infrastructure for touristic development, because people should
not be attracted to areas of increasing danger. An ambivalent relation exists for landscape
protection/nature conservation and tourism. Touristic development necessitates new infrastruc-
tures, which in turn increase the pressure on landscape und biotopes. An artificial or
artificially-enlarged lake can be a positive factor for landscape diversity in an otherwise
monotonous de-glaciated rock/debris environment. However, this is only true as long as lake
levels are kept high. Low water levels in managed lake reservoirs with exposed vegetation-free
lakeshores look unnatural. Given the milky to brown colour of their water, caused by erosion
of these vulnerable shores, they definitely deteriorate landscape appearance. Infrastructure
enabling tourist access to new but remote high-altitude lakes can also add landscape distur-
bance. A similar ambivalence to conflict concerns hydropower, water supply and flood
retention; low water levels are good for flood retention but not for hydropower production
and freshwater supply. High water levels, on the other hand, reduce the protective function of a
reservoir. It should be kept in mind that large technological investments can have unintended
negative repercussions, and that any related political issues must be carefully incorporated into
the analysis of social-ecological systems, hydro-social cycles and climate change adaptation
(Carey et al. 2012b, 2014).

4 Framework and options for planning and action

Protection of human lives commonly and legally has a high priority; the protection of goods
and assets is important but ranges on a lower level. In Switzerland, the territorially involved
municipalities and cantons are responsible to a certain degree for protection from natural
hazards, especially with respect to residential areas and traffic lines. Assessing and managing
risks from potentially dangerous new lakes should therefore come first (cf. supplementary
material S5).
Where large new lakes form or are likely to form in the foreseeable future, need for
action exists. This need must be reflected and scrutinized in view of legal aspects, potential
benefits and drawbacks, as well as possible synergies and conflicts. Legal aspects concern
rights (e.g., ownership of the glacier areas or rights to use water concessions), responsi-
bilities (especially protection of humans and infrastructure by political (e.g., administra-
tive) authorities and by power-plant owners, and regulations. For the Swiss Alps and
probably many other regions as well, the relevant fields in public law are spatial planning,
transportation, natural hazard and environmental law (environmental, water, nature and
homeland protection). Protected areas (biotopes, landscapes of national or international
importance) are subject to stricter regulations than other areas; here the decisive factors are
the actual circumstances of each site and project, together with the relevant national or
international laws (Buetler 2006, 2007; NELAK 2013). Where new lakes develop or are
artificially dammed in the catchment area of already existing hydropower schemes, rights
and responsibilities may have to be redefined. Using hydropower reservoirs for flood
protection or fresh-water supply may need regulations about financial compensation for
losses in energy production. In protected areas, weighting of protection goals is necessary
but can be delicate. The entire political framework with the involved stakeholders and
decision paths comes into play. The framework for science essentially consists of (1) the
framing and problem definition, (2) the scientific assessment of impacts, vulnerabilities
Climatic Change

and risks and (3) the evaluation of options and their possible implementation (Huggel et al.
2015). Since the drastic landscape changes in cold mountains have implications for commu-
nities and networks far beyond the limited icy areas alone, an open public discourse and
participative planning can help to avoid unintended conflicts and adverse effects. An example
of such conflicts recently occurred in the case of the regulated Laguna Parón in the Cordillera
Blanca (Carey et al. 2012b), even though a combination of flood protection, hydropower
production and water supply had already been pioneered at this site in the 1970s and 1980s
(Portocarrero 2013). The relation between icy mountains and societies is marked by complex
and often poorly understood processes of strong attribution, perception, and valuation by local
and distant actors (Gagné et al. 2014; Orlove et al. 2008) and thereby constitutes a major
challenge; this is especially the case when hazard and risk aspects change beyond the limits of
historical-empirical knowledge (Huggel et al. 2008). Phenomena like subsurface permafrost
degradation or locations of possible future lakes in still glacier-covered areas are not part of
local experience from the past or direct visual observation. Communication and exchange of the
scientific knowledge base therefore plays a key role.

5 Conclusions and recommendations

The formation of numerous new lakes in cold mountain ranges as a consequence of climate-
induced ice vanishing necessitates consideration of increasing risks from natural hazards. At
the same time, these lakes present new opportunities and challenges related to water manage-
ment, hydropower production, touristic developments, landscape protection/nature conserva-
tion and corresponding legal questions. Studies and experiences in the Swiss Alps and the
Peruvian Cordillera Blanca enable the following conclusions to be drawn and recommenda-
tions to be given:

& Realistic scenarios of climate-induced ice vanishing and resulting impacts on water
resources, landscape evolution and natural hazards can be anticipated and described as a
knowledge base for long-term planning.
& New lakes forming close to, or even directly at the foot of, destabilizing icy peaks function
as hazard and risk amplifiers; floods and debris flows developing from impact waves
triggered by rock/ice avalanches can affect down-valley areas over long distances and
reach humans and their infrastructure in previously safe places.
& The new lakes also offer opportunities in connection with hydropower production, tourism
and fresh water supply; multipurpose projects that combine flood retention, hydropower
production and freshwater supply may be conducive to finding economic solutions.
& Legal aspects such as property and water rights, environmental laws and regulations on
landscape protection/nature conservation must be carefully analysed and taken into
consideration.
& The scientific basis for modelling future high-mountain landscapes without glaciers and
corresponding process interactions needs further improvement; this should go hand-in-
hand with focused monitoring of changing landscapes and corresponding process dynam-
ics in high-mountains to continuously assess changing hazard conditions.
& Integrative management of lakes appears to be the most appropriate and promising method
in many cases; potential synergies and conflicts can be analysed in a comprehensive
matrix-type approach involving all related stakeholders.
Climatic Change

& Constructive, future-oriented reflection should start soon; time for planning in view of the
complex decision paths is short. Important first steps are the formation of an adequate
knowledge base and awareness-building in terms of goals, technical tools, socio-economic
aspects and judicial aspects are important first steps. Considerable uncertainties still
remain, especially concerning future political and legal developments.

Acknowledgments The present contribution summarizes and reflects the main results of the project NELAK
(new lakes as a consequence of melting glaciers: opportunities and risks) as part of the Swiss National Research
Programme NRP 61 on Sustainable Water Management (http://www.nfp61.ch/E/projects/cluster-
hydrology/lakes_melting_glaciers/Pages/default.aspx and http://www.vdf.ethz.ch/service/3533/3534_Neue-
Seen-als-Folge-des-Gletscherschwundes-im-Hochgebirge_OA.pdf); the project was funded by the Swiss
National Science Foundation. We thank the Steering Committee of NRP 61 as well as all the colleagues and
stakeholders from the scientific, administrative and economic sectors, who provided important input to our inter-
and transdisciplinary project. This study has benefited from studies and experiences acquired in the Glaciares
Project in Peru, funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and in collaboration with
CARE. We thank the editors and reviewers for their constructive feedback. Pamela Alean smoothed the English.

Author’s contributions Wilfried Haeberli was the formal leader of the NELAK project, developed the structure
of the present paper and drafted a first version based on the results and experiences gained in the NELAK project.
All authors contributed to the project’s results and participated equally in the elaboration of the final publication,
with special emphasis on hazards and risks (Christian Huggel, Yvonne Schaub), on hydropower (Anton J.
Schleiss), on tourism (Therese Lehmann Friedli) and on legal matters (Michael Buetler).

References

Aall C, Hoyer K (2005) Tourism and climate change adaptation: the Norwegian case. In: Hall M, Higham J (eds)
Tourism, Recreation and Climate Change, Aspects of Tourism 22. Clevedon, pp 209–221
Allen SK, Linsbauer A, Randhawa SS, Huggel C, Rana P, Kumari A (2016) Glacial lake outburst flood risk in
Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats. Nat
Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2511-x
Biot M (2015) Steigende Kosten, sinkende Preise – Wirtschaftlichkeit der bestehenden Kraftwerke. Bulletin
VSE/AES 106(2):9–12
Buetler M (2006) Gletscher im Blickfeld des Rechts. Dissertation University of Zurich, Abhandlungen zum
schweizerischen Recht 725, Bern
Buetler M (2007) Glaciers – objects of law and international treaties. In: Psenner R, Lackner R (eds) The Water
Balance of the Alps – What do we need to protect the water resources of the Alps? Proceedings of the
Conference held at Innsbruck University, 28-29 September 2006:19-31
Carey M, Huggel C, Bury J, Portocarrero C, Haeberli W (2012a) An integrated socio-environmental framework
for glacier hazard management and climate change adaptation: lessons from Lake 513, Cordillera Blanca,
Peru. Clim Chang 112(3):733–767
Carey M, French A, O’Brian E (2012b) Unintended effects of technology on climate change adaptation: an
historical analysis of water conflicts below Andean Glaciers. J Hist Geogr 38:181–191. doi:10.1016/j.
jhg.2011.12.002
Carey M, Baraer M, Mark BG, French A, Bury J, Young KR, McKenzie JM (2014) Toward hydro-social
modeling: Merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models (Santa River,
Peru). J Hydrol 518(Part A):60–70. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.006
Cenderelli DA, Wohl EE (2001) Peak discharge estimates of glacial-lake outburst floods and “normal” climatic
floods in the Mount Everest region, Nepal. Geomorphology 40:57–90. doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00037-X
Clague JJ, O’Connor JE (2014) Glacier-related outburst floods. In: Haeberli W, Whiteman C (eds) Snow and Ice-
related Hazards, Risks and Disasters. Elsevier, p 487-519
Colonia D, Haeberli W, Torres J, Giraldez C, Schauwecker S, Santiago A, Cochachin A, Huggel C (2015)
Possible future lakes in the Andes of Peru. Geophys Res Abstr 17:EGU2015–4500
Deline P, Gruber S, Delaloye R, Fischer L, Geertsema M, Giardino M, Hasler A, Kirkbride M, Krautblatter M,
Magnin F, McColl S, Ravanel L, Schoeneich P (2014) Ice loss and slope stability in high-mountain regions.
In: Haeberli W, Whiteman C (eds) Snow and Ice-related Hazards, Risks and Disasters. Elsevier, p 303-344
Climatic Change

Drenkhan F, Carey M, Huggel C, Seidel J, Oré MT (2015) The changing water cycle: Climatic and socioeco-
nomic drivers of water-related changes in the Andes of Peru. WIREs Water (in press)
Espiner S, Becken S (2014) Tourists towns on the edge: conceptualising vulnerability and resilience in a
protected area tourism system. J Sustain Tour 22(4):646–665
Farinotti D, Pistocci A, Huss M (2016) From dwindling ice to headwater lakes: could dams replace glaciers in the
European Alps? Environ Res Lett II. 054022. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054022
Faulkner B (2001) Towards a framework for tourism disaster management. J Tour Manag 22:135–147
French A, Barandiarán J, Rampini C (2015) Contextualizing conflict. Vital water and competing values in
glaciated environments. In: Huggel C, Carey M, Clague JJ, Kääb A (eds) The High-Mountain Cryosphere.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp 315–336
Frey H, Huggel C, Bühler Y, Buis D, Dulce Burga M, Choquevilca W, Fernadez F, García Hernández J, Giráldez
C, Loarte E, Masias P, Portocarrero C, Vicuña L, Walser M (2016) A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk
management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa, Peru. Landslides. doi:10.1007/s10346-
015-0669-z
Gagné K, Rasmussen MB, Orlove B (2014) Glaciers and society: attributions, perceptions, and valuations.
WIREs Clim Chang. doi:10.1002/wcc.315
Haeberli W, Kääb A, Vonder Mühll D, Teysseire P (2001) Prevention of outburst floods from periglacial lakes at
Grubengletscher, Valais, Swiss Alps. J Glaciol 47(156):111–122
Haeberli W, Schaub Y, Huggel C (2016) Increasing risks related to landslides from degrading permafrost into
new lakes in de-glaciating mountain ranges. Geomorphology. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.02.009
Huggel C, Haeberli W, Kääb A (2008) Glacial hazards – perceiving and responding to threats in four world
regions. In: Orlove B, Wiegandt E, Luckman BH (eds): Darkening Peaks - Glacial Retreat, Science and
Society. University of California Press: 68–80
Huggel C, Scheel M, Albrecht F, Andres N, Calanca P, Jurt C, Khabarov N, Mira-Salama D, Rohrer M,
Salzmann N, Silva Y, Silvestre E, Vicuña L, Zappa M (2015) A framework for the science contribution in
climate adaptation: Experiences from science-policy processes in the Andes. Environ Sci Pol 47:80–94.
doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2014.11.007
Kääb A, Huggel C, Barbero S, Chiarle M, Cordola M, Epifani F, Haeberli W, Mortara G, Semino P, Tamburini A,
Viazzo G (2004) Glacier hazards at Belvedere Glacier and the Monte Rosa east face, Italian Alps: processes
and mitigation. Tenth Internationale Symposium Interpraevent 2004, 24-27 May 2004, Riva, Italy: 67-78
Khanal NR, Jin-Ming Hu J-M, Mool P (2015) Glacial lake outburst flood risk in the Poiqu/Bhote Koshi/Sun
Koshi river basin in the Central Himalayas. Mt Res Dev 35(4):351–364. doi:10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-
15-00009
Lehmann Friedli T, Schaub Y (2013) Neue Gletscherseen im Alpenraum – Schaden- und Nutzenpotenzial für
den Schweizer Tourismus. Nachhaltigkeit im alpinen Tourismus, Schweizer Jahrbuch für Tourismus 2012:
111-126
Linsbauer A, Paul F, Haeberli W (2012) Modeling glacier thickness distribution and bed topography over entire
mountain ranges with GlabTop: application of a fast and robust approach. J Geophys Res 117:F03007.
doi:10.1029/2011JF002313
Linsbauer A, Frey H, Haeberli W, Machguth H, Azam MF, Allen S (2016) Modelling glacier‐bed
overdeepenings and possible future lakes for the glaciers in the Himalaya‐Karakoram region. Ann Glaciol
567(71):119–130. doi:10.3189/2016AoG71A627
McEvoy D, Cavan G, Handley J, McMarrow J, Lindley S (2008) Changes to climate and visitor behaviour:
Implications for vulnerable landscapes in the North West Region of England. J Sustain Tour 16(1):101–121
NELAK (2013) Neue Seen als Folge des Gletscherschwundes im Hochgebirge – Chancen und Risiken.
Formation de nouveux lacs suite au recul des glaciers en haute montagne – chances et risques.
Forschungsbericht NFP 61 (Haeberli W, Buetler M, Huggel C, Müller H, Schleiss A. (eds). Zürich, vdf
Hochschulverlag AG an der ETH Zürich, 300p
Orlove B, Wiegandt E, Luckman BH (2008) Darkening peaks. Glacier retreat, science, and society. University of
California Press, Berkeley CA
Portocarrero CA (2013) Reducing the risk of dangerous lakes in the Peruvian Andes: A handbook for glacial lake
management. US Agency for International Development, Washington, DC
Reynard E, Bonriposi M, Graefe O, Homewood C, Huss M, Kauzlaric M, Liniger H, Rey E, Rist S, Schädler B,
Schneider F, Weingartner R (2014) Interdisciplinary assessment of complex regional water systems and their
future evolution: how socioeconomic drivers can matter more than climate. WIREs Water 2014(1):413–426.
doi:10.1002/wat2.1032
Ritchie B (2008) Tourism disaster planning and management: From response and recovery to reduction and
readiness. Tour Disaster Plan Manag 11(4):315–348
Schaub Y (2015) Outburst floods from high-mountain lakes: Risk analysis of cascading processes under present
and future conditions. PhD thesis, Geography Department, University of Zurich
Climatic Change

Schleiss A, Oberrauch F (2014) Flexibilisierung der Wasserkraft in der Schweiz für zukünftige Aufgaben im
internationalen Strommarkt. Wasser Energie Luft 106(3):175–178
Scott D, Jones B (2005) Climate change and Banff National Park – implications for tourism and recreation.
Faculty of Environmental Studies, Climate Change Action Fund, Ontario, Canada
Seibert J, Jenicek M, Huss M, Ewen T (2014) Snow and ice in the hydrosphere. In: Haeberli W, Whiteman C.
(eds) Snow and Ice-related Hazards, Risks and Disasters, Elsevier:99-137
Terrier S, Jordan F, Schleiss AJ, Haeberli W, Huggel C, Künzler M (2011) Optimized and adapted hydropower
management considering glacier shrinkage scenarios in the Swiss Alps. In: Schleiss A, Boes RM (eds)
Proceedings of the International Symposium on Dams and Reservoirs under Changing Challenges - 79th
Annual Meeting of ICOLD, Swiss Committee on Dams, Lucerne, Switzerland Taylor & Francis Group,
London: 497 - 508
Terrier S, Bieri M, Jordan F, Schleiss AJ (2015) Impact du retrait glaciaire et adaptation du potentiel
hydroélectrique dans les Alpes Suisses. La Houille Blanche 70(1):93–101. doi:10.1051/lhb/2015012
Tzu-Ming L (2014) Analysis of the economic impact of meterological disasters on tourism: the case of typhoon
Markot’s impact on the Maolin National Scenic Area in Taiwan. Tour Econ 20(I):143–156
Walters G, Mair J, Ritchie B (2015) Understanding the tourist’s response to natural disasters: the case of the 2011
Queensland floods. J Vacat Mark 21(I):101–113
Zemp M, Haeberli W, Hoelzle M, Paul F (2006) Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades? Geophys Res Lett
33:L13504. doi:10.1029/2006GL026319
Zemp M et al (2015) Historically unprecedented global glacier changes in the early 21st century. J Glaciol
61(228):1–17. doi:10.3189/2015JoG15J017

View publication stats

You might also like