Advanced Sensitivity Analysis Summary Report

Performed By: USER

Date: 05 August 2013 16:42:58
Output: Net Profit
Inputs Analyzed: 4
Simulations: 28

Input
Name Book Sheet Cell Analysis Value Mean
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $C$10 Perc%: 1% 767365.2125959 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $C$10 Perc%: 5% 835514.6373049 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $C$10 Perc%: 25% 932551.0249804 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $C$10 Perc%: 50% 1000000 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $C$10 Perc%: 75% 1067448.97502 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $C$10 Perc%: 95% 1164485.362695 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $C$10 Perc%: 99% 1232634.787404 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $D$10 Perc%: 1% 767365.2125959 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $D$10 Perc%: 5% 835514.6373049 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $D$10 Perc%: 25% 932551.0249804 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $D$10 Perc%: 50% 1000000 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $D$10 Perc%: 75% 1067448.97502 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $D$10 Perc%: 95% 1164485.362695 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $D$10 Perc%: 99% 1232634.787404 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $E$10 Perc%: 1% 767365.2125959 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $E$10 Perc%: 5% 835514.6373049 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $E$10 Perc%: 25% 932551.0249804 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $E$10 Perc%: 50% 1000000 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $E$10 Perc%: 75% 1067448.97502 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $E$10 Perc%: 95% 1164485.362695 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $E$10 Perc%: 99% 1232634.787404 35630866.10202
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $B$10 Perc%: 1% 767365.2125959 33809297.89922
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $B$10 Perc%: 5% 835514.6373049 34347744.51632
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $B$10 Perc%: 25% 932551.0249804 35108409.76661
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $B$10 Perc%: 50% 1000000 35626008.7656
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $B$10 Perc%: 75% 1067448.97502 36138809.21673
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $B$10 Perc%: 95% 1164485.362695 36860581.48708
Option contract quant08 Konys Inc (3).xl C $B$10 Perc%: 99% 1232634.787404 37354326.77582
 Output: Net Profit
Min Max Mode Median StdDev Var Kurtosis Skewness
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-340657119.022 330870997.7413 99510024.92128 39955323.47547 141512975.5185 2.00259222E+16 2.904413639681 -0.28512149181
-342150116.749 329033308.0239 134052669.0287 38802236.06883 140923373.1489 1.98593971E+16 2.913476346856 -0.28448969082
-341876564.958 329716710.4549 134736071.4597 39485638.49981 141070774.3845 1.99009634E+16 2.910963880022 -0.2854213593
-341487060.898 330689791.3505 40347762.48795 40450416.95705 141280466.5623 1.99601702E+16 2.907369873879 -0.28665565296
-341216320.712 331366169.672 40888928.09753 40923976.21066 141427538.8018 2.00017487E+16 2.904687061737 -0.28734558638
-340945580.526 332042547.9935 41430093.7071 41437923.68808 141575531.3763 2.00436311E+16 2.901911046076 -0.28793974688
-340556076.466 333015628.8891 42208648.99089 42136114.44682 141792296.8437 2.01050554E+16 2.897573471622 -0.28854458827
-340282524.675 333699031.3201 42755434.5418 42614591.5577 141942920.7545 2.01477928E+16 2.894613170922 -0.28879013741
5% 95%
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214430936.785 259170780.9786
-214575399.565 255927691.6829
-214506773.094 256611094.1139
-214409057.452 257584175.0095
-214341136.334 258260553.331
-214273215.216 258936931.6525
-214175499.574 259910012.5481
-214106873.103 260593414.9791
Advanced Sensitivity Analysis Percentile Graph
Performed By: USER
Date: 05 August 2013 16:43:05
Output: Net Profit
Inputs Analyzed: 4
Simulations: 28

Mean of Net Profit F53 vs Input Distribution Percentile

38000000

37000000

36000000

Option contract quantity / Q4 2013

C10
35000000 Option contract quantity / Q1 2014
Net Profit

@RISK Trial Version D10

Option contract quantity / Q2 2014
For Evaluation Purposes Only E10
34000000
Option contract quantity / Q3 2013
B10

33000000

32000000
40%
0%

20%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Percentile
Option contract quantity / Q Option contract quantity / Q Option contract quantity / Q Option contract quantity / Q3 2013 B10
% Change Mean % Change Mean % Change Mean % Change Mean
0.01 35630866.1 0.01 35630866.1 0.01 35630866.1 0.01 33809297.9
0.05 35630866.1 0.05 35630866.1 0.05 35630866.1 0.05 34347744.52
0.25 35630866.1 0.25 35630866.1 0.25 35630866.1 0.25 35108409.77
0.5 35630866.1 0.5 35630866.1 0.5 35630866.1 0.5 35626008.77
0.75 35630866.1 0.75 35630866.1 0.75 35630866.1 0.75 36138809.22
0.95 35630866.1 0.95 35630866.1 0.95 35630866.1 0.95 36860581.49
0.99 35630866.1 0.99 35630866.1 0.99 35630866.1 0.99 37354326.78
Advanced Sensitivity Percent Change Graph
Performed By: USER
Date: 05 August 2013 16:43:06
Output: Net Profit
Inputs Analyzed: 4
Simulations: 28

Mean of Net Profit F53 vs Percentage Change of Inputs

38000000

37000000

36000000
Option contract quantity / Q4 2013
C10
Net Profit

35000000 Option contract quantity / Q1 2014

@RISK Trial Version D10
Option contract quantity / Q2 2014
For Evaluation Purposes Only E10
34000000 Option contract quantity / Q3 2013
B10

33000000

32000000
-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Change From Base Value (%)

Option contract quantity / Q Option contract quantity / Q Option contract quantity / Q Option contract quantity / Q3 2013 B10
% Change Mean % Change Mean % Change Mean % Change Mean
-0.232634787 35630866.1 -0.232634787 35630866.1 -0.232634787 35630866.1 -0.232634787 33809297.9
-0.164485363 35630866.1 -0.164485363 35630866.1 -0.164485363 35630866.1 -0.164485363 34347744.52
-0.067448975 35630866.1 -0.067448975 35630866.1 -0.067448975 35630866.1 -0.067448975 35108409.77
0 35630866.1 0 35630866.1 0 35630866.1 0 35626008.77
0.067448975 35630866.1 0.067448975 35630866.1 0.067448975 35630866.1 0.067448975 36138809.22
0.164485363 35630866.1 0.164485363 35630866.1 0.164485363 35630866.1 0.164485363 36860581.49
0.232634787 35630866.1 0.232634787 35630866.1 0.232634787 35630866.1 0.232634787 37354326.78
Advanced Sensitivity Analysis Tornado
Performed By: USER
Date: 05 August 2013 16:43:06
Output: Net Profit
Inputs Analyzed: 4
Simulations: 28

Sensitivity Tornado

Option contract quantity / Q3 2013 B10

@RISK Trial Version
Option contract quantity / Q4 2013 C10
For Evaluation Purposes Only
Option contract quantity / Q1 2014 D10

Option contract quantity / Q2 2014 E10

33500000

34000000

34500000

35000000

35500000

36000000

36500000

37000000

37500000
Mean of Net Profit
35630866.1 35630866.1 Option
0 contract quantity / Q2 2014 E10
35630866.1 35630866.1 Option
0 contract quantity / Q1 2014 D10
35630866.1 35630866.1 Option
0 contract quantity / Q4 2013 C10
33809297.9 37354326.78 3545028.877
Option contract quantity / Q3 2013 B10