01 CSS Exam Desk

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Articulate for CSS 2022

August 2021 (Volume - 14)
1. The Origin of the Taliban
2. The fall of Kabul: How was the war lost?
Compiled & Edited by Aamir Mahar

3. Intra-Afghan talks: Why do they fail?

4. Taliban’s Kabul — The Regional Implications
5. Afghanistan: a global failure for US and Pakistan
6. Women rights under a Taliban rule
7. The origin of atomic power
8. India’s changing nuclear status
9. Cultural identities in South Asia
10. Modi’s evil designs on Kashmir
11. FATF — A Geopolitical tool
12. The Climate Change: the danger limit
13. Philosophers of the Golden Age of Islam
14. Pakistan’s counterterrorism (CT) challenge
15. West Asia’s Geopolitics part the Red Sea
16. Sino-US Rivalry and Pakistan’s Predicament
17. US-China Rivalry in South Asia: Challenges and Prospects
18. Significance of Single National Curriculum
19. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) & Pakistan
20. North & South Korea: Division & Thereafter

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 02
WEST ASIA’S GEOPOLITICS PART THE RED SEA
Over the past few years, the fallout of West Asian
geopolitics has often played on the high seas, with
tensions between the Gulf and Israel on one side
and Iran on the other playing out in the Persian Gulf,
the Gulf of Oman, and most notably the Strait of
Hormuz — a critical narrow body of water between
Iran and the Arab Gulf. As of 2018, more than 20
million barrels of oil travelled through the Strait of
Hormuz each day, arguably making it one of the
most critical chokepoints for global oil and gas
supplies. The alternative route, developed around
the Red Sea, is now also developing as a major
point of inflection. Tensions between Iran and the
Gulf have always been the nucleus of security
concerns in the region. However, after Iran signed
the nuclear deal with the P5+1 and the
unceremonious withdrawal of the agreement by the
United States (US) under President Donald Trump
in 2018, covert wars between Israel and Iran and
US and Iran, largely taking place on land and in the
air, shifted to the high seas of the Persian Gulf and
its surrounding waters, targeting critical oil trade
lines. The Persian Gulf over the past months has
seen clandestine attacks on merchant ships
operating at the ports in the Gulf to Iranian
gunboats harassing ships belonging to the US
military, mysterious explosions on Israeli flagged
ships, and equally mysteriously Iranian naval ships
catching fire and later sinking in the Gulf of Oman.
In view of these developments, Asian economies,
which today are the largest importers of
hydrocarbons from West Asia, became much more
militarily astute in the region. The Indian Navy in
2019 began Operation Sankalp, providing
protection and escort to crude oil carriers to safely
pass the Strait of Hormuz towards India, a country
that imports more than 80 percent of its oil
supplies. According to several reports, Indian
Navy war ships escorted 16 Indian-flagged
merchant vessels per day in the Gulf as part of
Operation Sankalp. The idea to circumvent the
Strait of Hormuz chokepoint using the Red Sea by
the likes of Saudi Arabia is not new. In light of
geopolitical tremors in Persian Gulf, the Saudis are
expanding the capacity of their East-West Oil
Pipeline (EWOP) which will take crude from
major oilfields such as Abqaiq to the ports of
Yanbu and Rabigh, on the Red Sea, in an effort to
bypass maritime hostilities and Iranian threats
around the Strait of Hormuz. However, this is
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easier said than done today, as the Red Sea itself
has seen rapid militarisation over the past couple
of years. The Red Sea is not devoid of regional
and international geopolitical roadblocks. If the
Strait of Hormuz was captive to Iran’s proximity
and threat, the Yemen war and Tehran’s backing
of the Houthi rebels in the conflict make the Red
Sea open to the very same geographic and
geopolitical threats as the Persian Gulf. The
Houthis have already been blamed for attacking
Saudi interests and infrastructure in and around
the Red Sea using drones and IEDs, showcasing
Iran’s capability to challenge the Arab states and
Israel beyond just its periphery. Further, the small
nation of Djibouti on the African side of the Red
Sea is home to military presence of the US, China,
Japan, Italy, and France. Meanwhile, the United
Arab Emirates (UAE) has multiple military
anchors on this edge of West Asia, with bases in
Somalia and an upcoming military installation
with a fully operational airport on Mayun Island
— a barren piece of land placed in between
Yemen and Djibouti — in the centre of the Bab
al-Manbab Strait, which in its geographical design
is a similar chokepoint for the Red Sea what Strait
of Hormuz is to the Persian Gulf. The Mayun
Island base would give the UAE tremendous reach
around the Red Sea, arguably give access to the
Saudis by association if required, and also place
themselves with close Western allies such as the
US and even China.
Beyond the above-mentioned states, Russia was
also under negotiations with Sudan to setup a
military base on the Red Sea. The deal, as
per information released in 2020, was to give
Russia’s navy access to Port Sudan via a 25-year
lease agreement. However, as per reports in June
2021, Khartoum was going to review the deal with
Moscow to make sure such a deal was going to
serve the country’s interests. This comes on the
back of Sudan joining the Abraham Accords in
January 2021 that normalised relations between
the Arab states and Israel, pushed through with the
help of the US. In return, Sudan, which in the
1990s was home to Osama Bin Laden, also
achieved a significant victory that of
being removed from the US terrorism list. The
pushback on the Russian base deal by Sudan could
be seen through the lens of the Accords, and the
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UAE and US potentially pressurising Khartoum to
step back on Moscow’s access to Port Sudan.
India’s naval presence in the region may become a
long-term fixture, with it becoming one of the
world’s top crude importers, having increased
diplomatic presence and heft in West Asia and
potential access to facilities such as Duqm Port in
Oman, a neutral country that helps New Delhi
balance a potential military outpost between its
diplomatic interests in the Gulf and Iran. While
major oil producers such as Saudi see the Red Sea
as means to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz
conundrum, the pace at which military
developments are taking place around the Red Sea
will add more miles for the Indian Navy to worry
about, stretch its capacity in the Arabian Sea, and
the extended Indian Ocean, and demand further
diplomatic and kinetic resources underlined by the
need to protect Indian energy security
requirements back home. India’s Operation
FATF — A GEOPOLITICAL TOOL
Think-tanks of most developing countries have
been engaged in a debate for decades regarding a
trap set by two international organisations namely,
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the
World Bank (WB) for third-world countries. In this
context, a third international organisation namely
the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is not far
behind in playing this role, as Pakistan was trapped
in the ‘grey list’ by this international organisation in grand project externally with the help of
spite of significant progress on FATF’s given plan.
Historically, the Financial Action Task Force
(FATF) was established by the Group of seven
countries (G-7) in a Summit that was held in Paris,
France in 1989 in response to mounting concern
over money laundering and financing of terrorism.
Since the new millennium, the aforementioned
organisation has turned into a western backed and
biased organisation. The biases of FATF can be
analysed well as Pakistan was placed on 23rd in the
list of FATF. It genuinely means that twenty-two
countries were to be examined before Pakistan. But
what happened is that the organisation picked the
country placed on 23rd and started examining it,
whereas those twenty-two are still pending. It is a
tool of geopolitics and the carrot and stick policy of
India and the United States against Pakistan. India,
an arch rival of Pakistan, wants diplomatic and
financial isolation of Pakistan like Iran and North
Korea. The strategic nexus of India and the United
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Sankalp may in the future transition into a more
institutionalised presence in the region, with the
ability for long-term docking at bases and
expanding the scope of military cooperation with
friendly states. New Delhi’s participation in
the military exercise Cutlass Express 2021,
organised by the US along the eastern African
coastline, with others such as the UK, Djibouti,
Sudan, Somalia, Seychelles, and so on taking part,
showcases an increasing merge between India’s
approach to the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean, and
the developing Indo-Pacific narrative. Asian states,
particularly Asian economies importing oil as
primary customers today, will see a demand for a
significant increase in their military footprint in
and around the waters of West Asia. India should
realistically design and prepare for such a kinetic
and political capacity increase over the next few
years. (Published in ORF Online on August 4,
2021)
States turned its face towards Pakistan due to
China’s investment in Gwadar in the shape of
CPEC which is often called the flagship project of
BRI. The nexus is not only intended to exploit
Pakistan and its grand project CPEC internally with
the help of rebel groups and non-state actors
including the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) but
endeavouring hard to exploit both Pakistan and its
international organisations, especially FATF. Some
European countries, especially France have not
been happy with Pakistan, as Pakistan is the first
country around the globe that raises its voice
against every Islamophobic act. Why is India
exempted from the bird’s eye view of FATF despite
being a major terrorism financer on the globe?
Pakistan revealed detailed evidence in the form of a
dossier on ‘Indian state sponsored terrorism and
destabilisation in Pakistan and presented it before
the international community including the United
Nations. 9,130 terror acts were committed in
Pakistan, since 2011, resulting in 83,000 casualties
including 32,000 martyrs including 23,000 civilians
and 9,000 officers and personnel of law enforcing
agencies. Islamabad also suffered 126 billion in
economic losses whereas the lost economic
opportunities could not be calculated. India had
been promoting terrorism not only from its own soil
but has also been using the land of other
neighbouring countries to destabilise Pakistan,
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especially Afghanistan. The role played by the
Indian embassy and consulates in Afghanistan
operating along Pakistan’s border in sponsoring
terror in Pakistan where the Indian Ambassador and
diplomats regularly work with collaborators to
provide financial support to the TTP and other
dissident Balochs, but also supervise terrorist
activities carried out in Pakistan. To extend
financial support for terrorism in Pakistan’s Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, two transactions amounting to
$28,000 and $55,851 were made. It has also come
to Pakistan’s knowledge that India has paid
$820,000 to TTP leaders through its collaborators.
Indian agencies are managing 87 terrorist camps out
of which 66 are in Afghanistan. A 37-nation FATF
plenary held its first meeting on Pakistan in
SINO-US RIVALRY AND PAKISTAN’S PREDICAMENT
The Foreign policy options for Pakistan in the
coming decade need to be viewed within the
perspective of the intensifying Sino-US competition
and confrontation. The US-led Western states, after
humiliation in Afghanistan, have already launched
an insidious campaign to hold Pakistan responsible
for the swift advances of the Taliban. This is a
dangerous narrative and could cost the country
heavily. The venomous propaganda, systematically
carried out by the adversarial forces, owes a great
deal to Pakistan’s partnership with China in the BRI
than the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. The
Sino-US contestation would be intense spawning
confrontation and probably conflict. The Foreign
policy options for small states of greater Asia
would shrink in the coming decades. The
chessboard of realignment, neutrality and
appeasement by states, commensurate with their
national interests, was laid by the President
Obama’s “pivot to Asia” policy, which was given
an impetus by China’s dizzying economic
development, the strident expansion of trade and
investment in many continents after joining the
WTO, and within two decades, it emerged as the
second largest economy of the world, even
surpassing the US in purchasing power parity.
Pakistan being the host of the flagship project of
BRI figures prominently in the game. The Obama
administration signed Enhanced Defence
Cooperation Agreements with Australia, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and recognized
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February where China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia
opposed the United States-led move to place
Pakistan on the watchlist. But the US pushed for an
unprecedented second discussion on Pakistan, held
on February 22. By then, Washington had
convinced Riyadh to give up its support to Pakistan
in return for a full FATF membership. This left
only two—China and Turkey—in the Pakistan
camp, one less than the required number of three
members to stall a move. At this stage, Pakistan
appreciated the Chinese position and conveyed its
gratitude to Turkey for continuing to support
Islamabad against all odds.” Wise strategic moves,
policy and the tough endurance is mandatory to
tackle the ongoing international scenario.
(Published in The Nation on July 21, 2021)
India as “Major Defence Partner” in June 2015.
This entitled India for strategic as well as
technological handshake with USA in the region
and elsewhere. For the first time, since the Second
World War, Japan was allowed to enhance its
military capability for self defence. President
Obama visited Vietnam in that year and allowed it
defence imports of over $6 billion. He also hosted
the ASEAN Summit in February 2016.
The USA goaded major countries of the region to
join hands together in close defence cooperation to
strengthen their military capabilities. Indonesia,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam
have since been cooperating with each other within
over $1.5billion USA sponsored “Asia Maritime
Security Initiative”. While conducting missile
attack warning exercises with Japan, South Korea
separately, the US has held a series of naval
exercises with quad states. These are all
China-specific strategic realignments. The
Secretary of Defence, Ash Carter hosted 10
ASEAN Defence Ministers in September 2016
assuring them that the US would play equally
important roles from sea, air and underwater with
its robust military presence more geographically
distributed, operationally resilient and politically
sustainable. He disclosed the US had committed
60% of its home porting naval and overseas air
assets to the region including F-22 and F-35 Stealth
Jets, marine patrol aircrafts, submarines, undersea
 05
drones and long-range bombers. Through the Rim
of Pacific (RIMPAC) Initiative launched in 2016,
USA has since been conducting multilateral
military exercises. The last military exercise in the
region had brought together as many as 26
countries. Now, the NATO warships have been
moved close to South China Sea.
The trade dispute that was used by President
Donald Trump as the main weapon of his
anti-China armoury has been lingering on with no
apparent urgency on US side to address it. The
Biden’s Democratic administration would
concentrate on exploiting the weaknesses of China
with regard to Taiwan and South China Sea Islands
and alleged human rights violations in Hong Kong,
Xinjiang and Tibet. The US would, in all
probability, fuel insurgency of East Turkestan
Islamic Movement in Xinjiang and create stalemate
in the conflict in Afghanistan to undermine BRI and
CPEC, particularly after its initiative of B3W
enunciated in the recent G7 Summit that failed to
gain traction. All these economic, diplomatic and
military rebalances in the South East Asia and Asia
Pacific reaffirm one obvious fact that the coming
decades would witness an intense rivalry between
China and USA in the greater Asia. The USA
perception about China’s threat to its world
domination would compel the American leaders to
intensify and further speed up their China-specific
political and strategic moves. These competitions
and confrontation would be the dominant themes of
international affairs in the decades to come, posing
great challenges to the current USA-dominated
international order, and developing nations
dependent on foreign economic assistance. The
Western world perceives international order to be
under threat from the economic and strategic
strength and influence of China; the turmoil in the
Middle East and the aggressive posturing of Russia
in Europe. Particularly, the undeclared alliance
between China and Russia to give effect to
multi-polarity in the global power politics has
further exacerbated the US concerns for world
leadership. This alliance has been marked by
cordial cooperation between the two major powers
within the SCO, and understanding each other’s
stances in the Middle East and Afghanistan. While
China is careful in overstepping on the Russian
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political and strategic interests in Central Asia, it
has been steadily augmenting its economic clout in
the region.
Given its policy of restraint in international affairs
with a view to strengthen the economic gains that it
has acquired over the past three decades, China will
continue to avoid any military conflict with the US
unless rendered inevitable by its uncompromising
stance on Taiwan and South China Sea Islands.
China will rather like overcoming the wide military
and technological gap with the USA within the
coming decades. The Chinese leaders are well
conscious that their country is an emerging power
while the US has started decaying. The time is on
their side. The likelihood of strategic confrontation
between the US as the dominant power and China
as the rising state with the potential power to
displace the former in Southeast Asia and Pacific, if
not in the world, in the coming decades is too
strong to be ignored in the fast changing
geopolitical, geo-economic and geostrategic
dynamics in the world, particularly when both the
powers have already embarked on strategic moves
to countervail each other in almost all the regions.
The South Asian region being in close proximity of
the South West and Central Asia will be one of the
significant battle fields for the colliding powers.
Pakistan, wittingly or unwittingly, is caught in the
crosshair of the rivalry between the two great
powers of the world, which would test the
diplomatic skills of our foreign and security policy
mandarins. Diplomacy without military prowess
and economic strength does not yield desired results.
Economic stability is the foremost pre-requisite for
a country’s success in carving out a safe and secure
strategic place for itself at the global level. Within
the intensifying Sino-American competition, we
need to review the prototype of our bilateral
relations with both the competing powers, revisiting
the challenges and opportunities we had in the past,
and what the coming years hold in store for us.
Pakistan’s relations with the USA had always been
transactional, subject to ebb and flow and mostly
driven by the American interests and priorities. The
bitter fact is that the US never treated Pakistan at
par with India even when the latter was in the
Soviet Union’s tight embrace.We had many
disappointments. Notwithstanding the past setbacks,
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we could never resist any inducement to return to
the US stables when occasioned by a cataclysmic
event. Today, India has been elevated to a higher
pedestal as a trusted ally to countervail China.
Much water has passed under the bridge. Pakistan
will have no privileged relationship as in the past
with the US in the evolving global power politics.
The world has long past the Cold war era.
Conversely, the dependability of China’s friendship
with Pakistan, despite our weaknesses or
aberrations in policy and practice needs no
elaboration. Much before its withdrawal from
Afghanistan, the US lowered Pakistan in its foreign
policy priorities leaving it with the only option of
moving closer to China with which we have already
had a multi-faceted relationship including an
advantageous partnership in the CPEC and
understanding on peace process in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, Pakistan, too, partially succeeded to
mend its relations with Russia. However, all this
did not deter Pakistan to engage the US for
recalibrating relations between the two countries on
the basis of mutual respect seeking trade and
investment and convergence on the issues of
international concern without any compromise on
its rounded relationship with China. This
engagement continues unabated. Nevertheless, we
should be well prepared for the American pressure,
which will be brought to bear on our foreign policy
options when the rivalry between the two powers
intensifies in the coming decades. The Americans
would very much like to undermine our old and
trusted friendship with China by targeting BRI, in
general and the CPEC, in particular. India is hell
bent to fail CPEC. President Donald Trump’s senior
officials supported India’s stance on CPEC.
Stepping up its pressure, the US can possibly
squeeze Pakistan through international financial
institutions and FATF. This would pose a
formidable challenge. Our chronic dependence on
the IMF, World Bank and Asian Development
Bank for loans and aid could be our Achilles’ heel.
We have withstood American pressures in the past.
But those pressures had a different background and
intensity. The Chinese leaders understand our
vulnerability to external pressures on many counts.
Pakistan, today, has a much deeper political,
economic and strategic relationship with China,
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which is a thorn in the body of India and the US-led
West. For economic connectivity with South West
and Central Asia, Pakistan and China have evolved
a mutually supportive policy on peace and stability
in these regions. Peace and stability in Afghanistan
is the key to economic integration of these regions
and Middle East. Foreign policy of a country cannot
be divested from its internal situation. Our
vulnerabilities to external as well as internal
pressures are monumental. Pakistan is a medium
country with strong military and nuclear assets but
a chronically weak and unstable economy. It is
overburdened with foreign loans. The federation is
not homogenous and suffers from political,
economic, ideological and cultural fault lines with
small provinces chronically resenting the injustice
meted out to them in the distribution of state
resources. The elite have completely captured state
resources. Corrupt oligarchies have taken hold of
the country. Corruption is endemic. Almost 60% of
our population is deprived of its constitutional right
to education, healthcare, livelihood, security of life
and honour.
The population of the hewers of wood and drawers
of water is on the rise. The economic structural and
stabilizing reforms have been long overdue and
cannot be further delayed. We have to reset our
economic priorities rationalizing our revenues and
expenditures and reducing dependence on foreign
loans and financial aid. The IMF has been
chronically entrenched in our economic and
financial affairs controlling our budgets, prices of
the utilities, tariffs, taxes, salaries and pensions.
This is too much for a self-respecting nation. The
chronic tug of war between the main institutions of
the country for more power and space has critically
undermined constitutional democracy and
governance.We have to address this anomaly
forthwith along with other pressing political, federal
and ideological fault lines and economic woes to
rise as a nation to be reckoned with. Our immediate
concerns should be the insurgency in Balochistan;
the increasing militancy of religious outfits,
parochialism and ethnic divide in Sindh. These
problems look daunting but are not insurmountable.
The CPEC is termed as the linchpin of BRI – a
game changer and harbinger of prosperity in South
Asia and beyond. Simultaneously, it is viewed as a
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fissiparous project heightening domestic rivalries
for a bigger piece of the cake, and generating
regional and international controversies over the
passages of the corridor through territories disputed
by certain states. It is also increasingly looked at as
an extension of the new economic Great Game
US-CHINA RIVALRY IN SOUTH ASIA: CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS
The one-time friendly nations are today considered
competitors and rivals in the regional and global
arenas, despite heavy interdependence and large
investments in each other’s country. Almost 50
years ago, in the early 1970s, China and the USA
came closer despite sharp differences in economic
structure and ideology which also kept in rivalry
and enmity, the two superpowers of the time, the
USA and the USSR. The secret visit of Henry
Kissinger to Beijing, followed by a long visit Of
President Nixon, materialized with the active role
of Islamabad, and paved the way for seeking a
common ground of friendship. It took another two
or three decades to transform their relationship into
competition where the superpower USA and qn
expansionist and ambitious China began to compare
themselves in multiple dimensions, the economy in
particular.
From 1980 their economic ties grew rapidly, but did
not stop them initiating and maturing a rivalry
along with mutual suspicion over each other’s
intentions. Gradually, a section of Americans began
to view China as a threat to the established order
and regional US hegemony States and also feared it
would develop into a potential threat to US status as
a superpower. In the beginning China rejected the
notions but never abandoned its assertive policy and
continued seeking new alliances with like-minded
countries. As matters stand today, it is considered a
global competition between two superpowers that is
multi-layered and multi-dimensional. The
competition between the two is not ideological as
China did not propagate its ideology like the
erstwhile USSR with a plus point that both are more
interdependent than America and Russia were. For
the first time President Barack Obama realized the
actual strengths of China including its real
economic power was approaching to challenge the
US economic global status with its potential to
surpass the USA in future. He tried to convince
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being played out in the neighbouring Central Asian
region between the world powers and the regional
countries including USA, China, Russia, Pakistan,
India, Iran and Turkey. All these views about the
CPEC have some merit, and need to be examined
properly. (Daily Times in August, 2021)
China to work with the USA as its junior partner in
the region and the world, but Beijing refused to
accept the assigned status and asked the USA to
view China in its transformed form and with the
power it holds. The competition sharpened when
Donald Trump became US President and launched
a trade war against China. With his coming the US
Administration labelled China a ‘strategic
competitor’ in the context of its National Security
Strategy and the US Department of Justice’s start of
the ‘China Initiative’ which published a detailed
report entailing several steps to contain China at
regional and global levels, declaring China a
currency manipulator. The emerging situation and
the overall steps against China made observers feel
there was a return of the cold war as bilateral ties of
decades were giving way to undue pessimism,
hostility, and a zero-sum mindset in almost every
area of engagement. By May 2020, the spread of
the covid-19 pandemic, the most fatal infectious
disease which originated from Wuhan, China,
added a new point for Chinese criticism and blame,
in addition to the factors which already existed.
Trump, keeping in view the strategy in active
consideration, also contacted the President of
Taiwan and questioned Chinese claims over the
Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, extended
the relationship with Japan to encircle China and
marginalize its influence in the region.
Since Joe Biden’s takeover as US President, though
the central theme has not changed, the style of
functioning has, as the new leader is more
systematic and pragmatic in comparison to his
predecessor who always took hectic decisions and
always believed in bilateralism rather than
multilateralism, which is a necessary technique to
encircle China effectively. Although Biden too felt
the need to contain China and, recognizing the
Beijing’s challenges in view, continues to remain in
tt ouch with NATO, G-7 and other multilateral
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forums to prepare an anti-China environment at
regional and global levels and has urged the august
bodies to act against the growing Chinese influence
as a common challenge for all democratic countries
of the world. In response, China said the charges
and accusations as baseless and warned the bodies
not to be involved in sayings of the USA. In its
South Asia policy Trump and Biden concentrated
on Pakistan and Afghanistan, currently a complex
case for the USA, the region where it engaged in
war for the last two decades and is now ready to
exit fully. China too is busy there with the active
support of Pakistan and the sympathy of the
Russian Federation, which is most likely in favour
of the Taliban against whom the US launched a war
on 7 October 2001, while India, the USA, Japan
and other democratic countries want an anti-
Taliban elected/democratic regime to assume power
in Afghanistan in the larger interest of its people
and the political system as well. The present
scenario of South Asia is not very favourable for
the USA, as it was earlier when China was like
other nations of the region. In the last four decades
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it has grown rapidly, touching the US capability at
least economically and soon likely to match it in
every sector. As a result it has totally upset the
regional balance of power, especially when it has
got the open support of Pakistan and the tacit
consent of the Russian Federation. Unfortunately,
the same polarisation is working against the USA in
Afghanistan from where the US and NATO forces
have exited. Therefore, it has doubled the US
responsibility to eye simultaneously the regional
peace and stability. as well as facing Chinese
rivalry at regional and global levels. The present US
dispensation is trying to balance growing Chinese
strength and influence with the like-minded
democratic countries of the West. It however, is a
one-to-one competition which has threatened the
position of the USA. At the regional level, with the
US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the terror group
of the country is advancing towards achieving its
goal, political power, while Chinese scheme of Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI), is spreading swiftly, as
no such project exists in the USA’s world
calculations. (Pakistan Today on August 20, 2021)

THE ORIGIN OF THE TALIBAN

The Taliban, which means “students” in the Pashto language, fought alongside the Mujahideen, Afghan
rebels fighting the nine-year Soviet occupation. The US provided weapons and money to the mujahideen as
part of its policy against the Cold War foe, the erstwhile USSR. At the time, the Soviets were backing the
communist leaders who had staged a bloody coup against the nation’s first president, Mohammad Daoud
Khan, in 1978. After the Soviets pulled out in 1989, things turned chaotic, and by 1992, there was a
full-blown civil war with mujahideen commanders fighting for power and dividing the capital city of Kabul,
which would be showered with hundreds of rockets each day coming from different directions. The Taliban
militia emerged as a substantial player in 1994. Many of its members had studied in conservative religious
schools in Afghanistan and across the border in Pakistan. They made quick military gains winning control of
Kandahar, the biggest city after Kabul, and promised to make the cities safe for people. Fed up with years of
war, people generally welcomed them. The mujahideen commanders and their forces had been accused of
rights abuses and war crimes in their competition for power. By 1996, the Taliban seized the capital and
hanged the nation’s last communist president, Najibullah Ahmadzai, from a Kabul square. It declared
Afghanistan an Islamic emirate and started imposing its strict interpretation of Islamic law. It was
recognised by only three countries – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Pakistan. The
Afghan group was able to bring a semblance of normalcy and took the decision to tackle endemic corruption,
which won it some initial popularity. However, the group never eased restrictions, which it initially said had
been done to ensure that the crimes of the civil war could not be continued. Those restrictions included
banning women from education and keeping all women, except for doctors, from working. Under its rule,
anyone who did not follow its strict guidelines could be jailed or beaten publicly. Its six-year rule was
marked by abuse of ethnic and religious minorities and curbs on seemingly innocuous activities and
pastimes such as music and television. Even sports were highly regulated, as male athletes were told what to
wear and matches were paused during the five daily prayers. Its decision in 2001 to destroy the historic

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Buddha statues in Bamiyan province drew global condemnation. In 1999, the United Nations imposed
sanctions on the Taliban over its links to al-Qaeda. The US invaded Afghanistan on October 7, 2001, after
the Taliban refused to hand over al-Qaeda’s leader, Osama bin Laden, who was hiding in Afghanistan after
being initially invited back to the country by former mujahideen commander Abdul Rab Rassool Sayyaf. In
the lead-up to the US invasion, the group had asked the Bush administration to provide proof of bin Laden’s
role in the 9/11 attacks and later for negotiations with Washington. Bush rejected both.
The Taliban was forced out of power within a couple of months as the US and its allies began a bombing
campaign. A new interim government headed by Hamid Karzai was formed in December 2001, and three
years later, a new constitution was promulgated, which took its cues from the reformed constitution of the
1960s, when women and ethnic minorities were formally granted their rights by the nation’s last king,
Mohammad Zahir Shah. But by 2006, the Taliban regrouped and was able to mobilise fighters in its battle
against foreign occupiers and its allies. The 20 years of conflict devastated Afghanistan, with more than
40,000 civilians killed in attacks by the Taliban and the US-led forces. At least 64,000 Afghan military and
police and more than 3,500 international soldiers were also killed. The US spent almost $1 trillion on the
war and reconstruction projects but the country still remains largely poor and its infrastructure in tatters. In
2011, the Obama administration allowed for a group of Taliban officials to take residence in Qatar, where
they would be charged with laying the groundwork for face-to-face negotiations with the government of
then-President Karzai. In 2013, its Doha office was formally opened. In 2018, the Trump administration
began formal, face-to-face talks with the group without involving the Afghan government.
The Taliban has set up a parallel state calling it the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan with its own white flag.
It has also selected shadow governors that have their own administrations in the nation’s 34 provinces. The
Taliban chief heads a council that oversees about a dozen commissions in charge of things like finance,
health and education. It even runs its own courts. According to Taliban members and a UN committee, it
makes close to $1.5bn a year (PDF). It has also earned revenue from partnering with local and regional
mafias in the regional drug trade. Last year, it made millions from mining and trading minerals, and even
producing methamphetamine (a stimulant widely used as a recreational drug) in partnership with regional
mafias. It also has its own tax collection system and receives funding from abroad – although suspected
sources, like Pakistan and Iran, deny it.
As it was feared for months, the Afghan government collapsed after the Taliban fighters gathered on the
outskirts of Kabul. While the Taliban engaged in peace talks with Afghan leadership, it never ceased attacks
in the country. Almost 1,800 Afghan civilians were killed or injured in the first three months of this year.
That is almost 30 percent more than last year. The Taliban has also been blamed for a wave of assassinations
targeting journalists and activists – a charge the group has denied. According to a notable public opinion
study (PDF) done in 2019 – 85 percent of people said they had no sympathy for them. As the armed group is
now all set to resume power, Afghans now worry if it will impose its conservative programme or offer
moderate policy as promised by the group’s leadership. There was chaos at the Kabul airport as people
waited to fly out of the country. Many Afghans fear the Taliban will rip up the constitution – which protects
basic human rights. In a New York Times op-ed, the Taliban tried to clear things up, saying it wants to
“build an Islamic system … where the rights of women that are granted by Islam — from the right to
education to the right to work — are protected”. Shaheen, the Taliban representative, reiterated in July, that
“women will be allowed to work, go to school, and participate in politics but will have to wear the hijab, or
headscarf”, a practice which is already commonplace in the current Islamic republic. (Source: Al Jazeera)

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 11
THE FALL OF KABUL: HOW WAS THE WAR LOST?
The Fall of Kabul is a reality giving several lessons
to the learned, and thousands of articles and
numerous books would be soon written for finding
the causes of this. Whatever the reasons, this is the
defeat of an engineered installed rule. Military men
look at this event as engaging in a war without a
clear strategy and goals as mentioned by former ISI
Chief Lt Gen Asad Durrani who believes the USA
entered Afghanistan as an angry and wounded
elephant and “shifting goalposts” not only bogged
down the USA, rather all western countries. Former
diplomats with whom I talked believe that once the
USA entered Afghanistan, it decided to stay at any
cost because the time provided it an opportunity to
stay in an important region from where the USA
could have an eye on everybody— Iran, China,
Pakistan, and the Central Asian countries. Former
Ambassador and retired General Khalid Jafri
believes the USA lost the war the day they entered
into war in Afghanistan because this was a war
looking for strategic objectives after entering into
the war. Military men like former Ambassador Maj
Gen Zahid Mubashar believe that the USA spent
billions of dollars on the Afghan National Army
(ANA), but this army collapsed like a house of
cards because an army cannot be created in a period
of five or ten years, and the USA never learned this
from history.
Ambassador (retd) Hassan Javed, who is the writer
of several international books on foreign affairs and
public diplomacy and is a leading expert on China
issues, is of the view that history is taking a turn
once again. Such events happen once in a century.
He says the British-Afghan War of 1919, was a
signal of the decline of the British Empire.
Similarly, the collapse of the USSR came in 1991
after its defeat in Afghanistan. American historian
Francis Fujiyama thought that history ended in
2000 AD with victory to the so-called Western
values of Democracy, Capitalism, etc. Actually,
history is ending now with the collapse of the
Post-Second World War Order drawn by the
Western powers. These events are likely to have
regional and global ramifications, as has been the
case throughout history. ‘Old narratives are neither
likely to help nor stop the rot or sinking of Western
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societies,’ believes Ambassador Hassan. Historians
may write Fall of Kabul as the greatest defeat of the
US allied forces and would write a new order of the
world. A long list of reasons for the Fall of Kabul
would soon emerge but an immediate reaction to
how the war was lost in Afghanistan is as follows:
The US war in Afghanistan lacked strategic clarity
with no clear mission, in fact, as ‘The Afghanistan
Papers’ showed, the war was based on
‘misleading/deceiving public opinion. The USA
from the very first day became a victim of slow and
fast thinking, metaphorically they put the risk
analysis on the backburner and started deciding in a
hurry to gain more. Apparently like gambling, for if
chance would have favoured them, they could have
achieved what they expected, but as the very name
gambling represents, without putting your decisions
under the scrutiny of probability, the likelihood of
the odds against the desired outcome tends to be
higher instead of being in favour. The
decision-making having a high ratio of probabilities
with a higher likelihood toward odds must not be
taken by depending on mere chances. Chances of
odds in favour or against have no logical
framework, for they are based on predictions
derived from previous experiences. And the
nominal data is in percentage, which is based on
speculation, on other hand, and probable factors can
be much more conclusive in risk analysis. The
probability of winning the Afghan War was based
on chances, built on predictions of odds that may be
in favour at the exact time and space. The war itself
was a misperceived factor and clearly relying on
uninformed variables. The proper noun for the
supreme vector was chosen as “War against Terror”
in 2001.” The USA took chances in Afghanistan to
defeat the former USSR and went for taking the
chance of creating Mujahedeen in early 1980, and
that chance was based on the “probability” of
harming the USSR. Leaving Afghanistan and
Pakistan to face the results of civil war after the
withdrawal of the former USSR was also taking
another chance to let Afghans and Pakistanis clean
the garbage of war. Indirectly supporting the advent
of the Taliban was taken as a chance for the
cleansing of Mujahedeen but here the “game of
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chance” went out of control when according to the
USA, its soil was attacked by the Taliban on 9
September 2001. Operation Enduring Freedom was
launched as another probability for cleansing the
Taliban and reverting the concept of Jihad that was
promoted to defeat the former USSR. The expected
outcome of launching Operation Enduring Freedom
was saving humanity, protecting women’s rights,
cleansing Al-Qaeda, and so on and so forth. The
core objective of destroying Al-Qaeda was
achieved by December 2001 as said by former
President Bush. However, the USA started talking
about “nation-building”, and the Bonn Summit
provided a corrupt warlord system that had
previously been rejected by the people of
Afghanistan and gave a passage to the Taliban to
root out the Rabbani government. A so-called “Big
tent strategy” was evolved by involving warlords
capable enough to disrupt the state-building process,
INTRA-AFGHAN TALKS: WHY DO THEY FAIL?
For almost a year now the Taliban and the Afghan
government have been forced to sit in the same
room but in vain. Today, both the parties are
battling more fiercely than ever 1,800 km away
from the table on the grounds of their “shared
homeland”. Why is it so? Since the intra-Afghan
dialogue initiated (at least for the cameras; in reality,
it has not even begun to date) well before the start
of troop withdrawal the blame for the Taliban’s
fierce advance cannot solely be placed on the
pullout and this has a direct linkage to the failure of
these talks to cease armed action. Coming back to
the why question strolling in the heads of all
analysts and policymakers whose interests are tied
with Afghanistan, to answer which one needs to get
hold over a book titled; Never Split the Difference
by an ex-FBI hostage negotiator, Chris Voss. The
former negotiator in this guide to effectively
negotiate culminates the skill into getting a “you are
right” from your opponent!
The moment the three magical words are voiced the
ice is already broken into pieces and from here you
and your opponent’s interests converge, making a
complex negotiation facile. How does one redeem
this magical “you are right” should logically be the
next query bothering the reader unless he has
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in a state-building process. The Bonn Agreement
sought to establish a new constitution. According to
data available with several Think Tanks, the Bonn
Agreement model for the reconstruction of
Afghanistan was based on a “maximalist model”.
The Maximalist model offers roles for community
and society as direct stakeholders and was used in
post-conflict reconstruction in the Balkans,
sub-Saharan Africa, and East Timor during the
1990s conflicts. One can understand that the Bonn
process forgot the sensitivities of Afghan culture,
history, and norms and borrowed a model that had
nothing to do even with the sensitivities of the
region. Questionable elections produced only two
Afghan presidents during 19 years (December 2001
to August 2021). The US quest for nation-building
continued till US Chinook transferred its staff to
Kabul Airport. What new chance will the USA not
take? (Pakistan Today on August 17, 2021)
already read Voss. So, to those who have, they are
welcome to skip the next few lines and for others, it
is not that mystical as the world may make us think;
it’s an art like any other which begins with empathy
or to quote the exact expression “tactical empathy”.
Building rapport through deference is the first key
that unlocks the door for further talk. Afterward,
once you neutrally understand the adversary you
solely should acknowledge their concerns and put
forward your own tactically in a way that makes
your concern their concern: for example, if the
Taliban want to impose Sharia, the Afghan
government can positively acknowledge the
demand and be willing to implement Sharia but in
the pursuit should slightly slide in a concern about
their own future in such a system highlighting their
followers who may repel against the ideology. The
following reaction would apparently place the
Taliban under control of the negotiation who would
then be compelled towards finding a way to
accommodate the followers of the Afghan
government (and automatically its officials). After
all, all humans seek is validity that can then take the
best out of them! The theory is empirically proven
once we look around our friends for a moment here;
all we do is solely validate their concerns, or value
their views and they are willing to go miles for us.
 13
Thus, the trick is neurologically proven and
manifested each day and is not magical. Yet, the
hypothetical illustration above may sound too
simplistic, but I am certain from watching the
interviews of both sides of the table in Doha (and
the battlefield in Afghanistan) that are full of
perpetual blame gaming, with one blaming the
other for violence and vice versa, that even this
model has not been applied to at least check. The
most recent case is the interview of the Afghan
chief negotiator Dr. Abdullah Abdullah to Al
Jazeera in which he was confronted with the same
query about the likelihood of any successful
negotiation under the shadow of this constant blame
gaming from both sides in whose answer he
adversely furthered the notorious game by pointing
towards the violent gains of the Taliban in the
recent weeks, identifying them as a sign of
Taliban’s aversion to peace.
It is this attitude of the Afghan leaders that steals
the future of many Afghan children who instead of
going to schools are sheltering themselves from the
war they have nothing to do with. Why cannot the
doctor who has seen blood on his land for years just
for those children capitulate in his words to give
Taliban the illusion of legitimacy by implying that
their demands too are justified, and we seek to
make space within those demands to accommodate
ourselves and our followers! For once, at least, the
ice may break by mere words, and guns might be
put to rest. I do not intend to sideline the
responsibility of the Taliban who too should do the
same, but since the Afghan officials are more
“educated” or at least they claim to be, then why
cannot they utilize “tactical empathy” that has the
TALIBAN’S KABUL — THE REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS
Henry John Temple once said, “We have no eternal
allies, and we have not perpetual enemies. Our
interests are eternal and perpetual, and those
interests it is our duty to follow.” The saying has
always been a cornerstone policy for all nations.
Whenever it is in the national interest of a state it
takes a decision that suits it no matter how
politically incorrect that seems. The same is true for
the USA decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, in
sheer contradiction to its promises of
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potential to save lives, else their higher education
and liberal ethics are worthless if they too want to
play the same way as the violent Taliban? But let’s
go back to reality now. It is a pity that while I was
penning down the hypothetical scenario based on
the former FBI negotiator’s technique it felt like
writing a fairy tale. Realistically, the self-inflicted
egos on both sides are too high for any
breakthrough to happen as neither of the two even
strategically want to validate the other. Maybe, the
popular discourses have traditionally been arranged
in a way that “people” are demonized, instilling a
belief that people are inherently evil while in
actuality it is the “differences” that are. Similarly,
both the Afghan officials and the Taliban, even
though they sit in the same room, consider the other
non-human with no legitimacy apparent in the
stalemate with not even an agenda or framework
agreed yet. Yet humans, while they are capable of
the worst, they are of good too, and the pages of
history are full of it; resolution of Cuban missile
crisis, apartheid’s quashing in the USA and South
Africa, the NPT regimes, are just a few amongst
them. To add another such page these two sides
must realize the dreadful price of their egos and
genuinely talk in way negotiators are supposed to
which is only possible if the international
community, foremostly the USA, wholeheartedly
incentivize these talks and not just act “responsible”
by photographing the two sides on the same table. It
is about time the facades of complacency are torn
down and real negotiations commence, or it shall be
too late for thousands of more Afghans who could
be buried besides the empires in this catastrophic
civil war in Afghanistan. (Published in Pakistan
Today, August 13, 2021)
nation-building. The hand-picked government of
Afghanistan was left at the mercy of the Taliban,
which capitulated within a matter of few days and
President Ashraf Ghani fled the capital in disgrace.
Footages are emerging showing chaos at Kabul
airport where hundreds of formerly US-employed
local Afghan staff are desperately trying to leave
the country. Kabul has been taken over by the
Taliban. The speed of takeover and melting away of
300,000 strong Afghan National Army (ANA) has
 14
surprised many including the USA. The Biden
administration very confidently claimed a few days
ago that the takeover of Kabul is not a foregone
conclusion and that the ANA would be able to
defend their country. Experts were predicting that
the Ghani government could sustain for many
months without US support, after all the ANA was
trained well and was provided with the best
weaponry and equipment, much better and
sophisticated than their counterparts, the Taliban.
Probably all analyses were made by keeping the
example of the Government of Dr. Najeebullah in
mind, where he was able to cling to power for a
couple of years after the Soviet withdrawal. US
president Joe Biden while assessing the disaster has
put all blame on Afghanistan. He said that
“Afghanistan’s political leaders gave up and fled
the country. The Afghan military gave up,
sometimes without trying to fight.” The reasons for
ANA capitulation would be discussed for a long
time to come, but the fact is that the Taliban have
re-captured Kabul without much resistance. It is
hence, more important to discuss what the Taliban
government in the future would be like and what
will be the implications, especially for the region.
Afghanistan’s neighbours are fearful of the Taliban,
especially because of their past experiences. Russia
had been supporting the regime of Dr. Najibullah
against the Taliban and later the Northern Alliance.
Russians also fears that the Taliban government can
radicalize its growing Muslim population. Iran and
the Taliban had adverse relations, and the Taliban
killed Iranian diplomats and intelligence agents at
Mazar-i-Sharif in the 1990s. China has blamed the
Taliban for sponsoring the East Turkestan Islamic
Movement (ETIM) and fears that Taliban’s success
can indoctrinate its Muslim population in the
Xinjiang province. Pakistan though supported and
recognized the Taliban’s earlier government, but
under US pressure switched sides and even
deported their ambassador unceremoniously.
Pakistan also fears that the Tehrik Taliban Pakistan
(TTP) that is responsible for major terrorist attacks
in Pakistan including the APS massacre can gain
momentum again. The Taliban, therefore, had to
offer credible assurances, not just in talks but in
deeds too, that their return to Kabul would lead to a
new era and that they believe in peaceful
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coexistence not only within their boundaries but
also with their neighbours. Reduction in violence
and assurances of civil rights, in particular those of
women and minority groups, as are guaranteed in
Islam have to be ensured. History is a witness that
no single political, religious or ethnic group, no
matter how strong they were, had been able to
govern a diversified population peacefully without
reaching a political settlement. Afghanistan is no
exception and the Taliban need to take this into
account. If these fears are not settled fast, then the
possibility of neighbouring countries sponsoring
militias and warlords, who will try to seize territory
along the border to act as a buffer zone, is quite
possible. This would again plunge Afghanistan into
a civil war and the region would become unstable.
Therefore, it is of paramount importance that all the
neighbours must join hands and support the Taliban
to reach a negotiated political settlement, thus
establish an all-inclusive government. China being
the regional superpower can play the dominant role
here. Taliban would also be looking for
international legitimacy and financial stability and
China can provide both. China’s foreign minister
had met the Taliban delegation, a few weeks ago,
signaling the future of geopolitics. After the visit,
the Chinese foreign office emphasized that China
wants to play an important role in the process of a
peaceful reconciliation and reconstruction in
Afghanistan. This is in the national interest of
China as instability in Afghanistan and, by
extension regional insecurity could have a
detrimental impact on its Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI). At present, China’s economic engagement
with Afghanistan is limited and well below the
potential. The BRI project bypasses Afghanistan,
whereas it can provide the smallest route to the
Central Asian States. China has repeatedly vowed
to extend the China Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC) to Afghanistan but has taken little steps to
implement it. Afghanistan can play a major role in
BRI success as Afghanistan has about 3 trillion
worth of rare earth material that would be required
by China for its ever-growing industrial needs. If
China plays a major role in Afghanistan, then this
will have a positive impact on the region. People
may argue how can China be successful where the
USA has failed miserably? The answer lies in the
major difference between the Chinese and the USA
 15
policy. Unlike the USA, that dictates the country to
follow western agenda, China does not poke its
nose into the internal affairs of a country hence
Taliban can work more freely with China. National
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interests are eternal and perpetual, and to follow
those interests is every nation’s responsibility.
(Published in Daily Times on August 19, 2021)

AFGHANISTAN: A GLOBAL FAILURE FOR US AND PAKISTAN

United States has decided to withdraw from Afghanistan, and they did it on account of growing ground
resistance. Frustration with an environment not willing to be tamed and finally losing patience. However, the
decision was a political and not a military one. There is a lot of evidence to suggest this, but the perception
now is that the United States has ‘lost the war’ and have been defeated by the Taliban. As this perception of
a United States defeat at the hands of Taliban builds up, another supporting one is also developing: That
Pakistan is providing safe havens to the Taliban and that alone is the basis of the Taliban successes against
the United States. Pakistan can bend over backwards and deny such claims but our own pseudo-intellectuals
and armchair warriors themselves eagerly contradict the establishment’s position. It is very difficult for them
to understand that Pakistan does not have the resources or the capacity to fund, resource and direct a proxy
war at this scale. An odd incident, here or there, brought on record, involving some junior operator, carried
away by his importance, in some far-flung area, offering money or access to an individual Taliban, is quoted
as strategic substance to this theory. In Pakistan it is customary to habitually take an exception and present it
as the rule. We do this to accrue two minutes of glory under the sun while it shines or then because in such
contradictory and accusatory behaviour there is some benefit to the accuser. Conspiracies and rumours rule
the moment while any logic and reasoning are set aside so to develop false perceptions situated to satisfy a
predetermined position. These perceptions are then promptly quoted by the likes of Christine Fair and
Hussain Haqqani with enthusiasm, authority and cross references as Pakistan is continually painted to be the
devil.
Why ANA is collapsing against Taliban despite superior numbers? However, in almost every
engagement, after the withdrawal of United States, the Taliban are outnumbered anywhere between five or
six to one, which implies that normally about 200 militants are taking on about a 1000 ANA soldiers. Two
Afghan Army Chiefs have been sacked. There must be some reason for them to have been served such
marching orders. Nevertheless, how do these soft acquittals by the ANA involve Pakistan. Was Pakistan
instrumental in motivating or influencing the ANA to lay down their arms? What has this woeful
performance of the Afghan Military Establishment got anything to do with Pakistan? The Afghan Army and
Police were organised, with the United States help, as a force of 4,50,000 men, (including police) supported
by air, armoured vehicles, artillery and were designed to combat terrorism/insurgency. Yet a force no larger
than, at its very best, 85000 militants, armed with small arms, mortars and rocket launchers are sweeping
across Afghanistan capturing province after province, as if it is a walk over. How does Pakistan fit into this
equation or then be held responsible for the ANA’s dismal performance? While all that went on in
Afghanistan, I found that with all these reverses, lack of progress and downright failures, everyone was
blamed except the United States, the ANA, the Afghan Police or the Khad. These people could do no wrong.
No inquiry or investigation ever pointed a figure at the disappointment and catastrophe they caused, nor
were any corrective measures suggested. It was always business as usual.
Seven original sins that led to the US, ISAF and finally ANA’s defeat? The consequences of shifting
blame elsewhere, shirking responsibility and failing to hold any accountability has come full circle, with the
ground reality screaming accusations against the very accusers who were in search of scapegoats. However,
since Pakistan is blamed for failures by United States and others and having been intimately involved with
this War Against Terror, I felt it was my duty to highlight some of the reasons for the collapse in
Afghanistan and the Taliban successes so that their amazement and surprise is put to rest: First, Corruption;
A report prepared by John F Sopko, Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction titled, “The state

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Source: IPRI
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of corruption in Afghanistan and the role of independent institutions” was a webinar event held on June 24,
2020. This is an important activity that one needs to look up along with a host of other SIGAR (Special
Inspector General Afghanistan) Reports. Resources were misappropriated and misused, and this involved
American Contractors as well. If corruption takes on a lead role in any activity, then ownership, loyalty and
integration of that institution or organization is always questionable. Corruption in the US controlled
Afghanistan destroyed any credible governance and people suffered injustices and were often victims of
parochialism, ethnic or tribal preferences. Hamid Karzai and his family were involved right from the top and
as such no organization could ever take root. Second, Narcotics; Drug production grew under the ISAF
watch from a zero production to a $ 2.2 Billion Afghan share of the revenue. This in turn threw up a culture
of its own that was highly decentralized and had a law unto itself. In fact, many of the ISAF personal were
corrupted by this as well. This broke down the rule of law. Some people were more equal than others.
Ashraf Ghani and his relatives posted people of their liking and who were useful to them and as such every
post became questionable, designed to facilitate illicit trade and narcotics. Lucrative business has an appeal
that commands loyalty of another kind. Third, ISAF Conduct and Good Behaviour Money to Taliban – We
know, though it is never acknowledged, that many ISAF participants handed out ‘good behaviour’ money to
the Taliban. They paid a price to be left alone!!! Imagine that the coalition paid out funds as protection
money and how can one expect anything from a force such as this. NATO as well as the United Nations
must hold a proper investigation into this and come up with ways and means to ensure that such disgraceful
conduct is never repeated. Any denial of this accusation by any party will prompt me to name those
countries with evidence as to what they did. Fourth, Deliberately Insecure Logistics – the western coalition
refused to have its logistics contracted out to NLC (National Logistics Cell, Pakistan) and instead used
private contractors. Most of these haulage contractors were Taliban sympathizers. It was an indirect way to
pay for the protection of goods along the lines of communication. The Taliban benefited by pocketing some
money as well as some military stores that they could pilferage. It’s no wonder that Karkhano Bazar in
Peshawar and Wesh in Chaman, were stocked with US Military equipment for sale to anyone willing to pay
for it. Fifth, Strategic Issues that ISAF could have handled better.
ISAF was a coalition of many countries, led by the United States, that never really worked out how they
could operate across the combat spectrum. Some of the issues that plagued cooperation were: Unified
command was always an issue. Separate countries had separate caveats governing their operations. Logistics
was a confusing activity specially when no NATO country had individually signed any agreement with
Pakistan for passage
1. ISAF resorted to garrisoning their troops and thus controlled a town/village or a locality but not the
rural spaces. The Taliban enjoyed freedom of movement and liberty of action which ISAF did not.
2. ISAF kept rotating troops every year and never really allowed their leadership to get acquainted with
terrain, the resistance, or the intelligence. This disrupted combat contiguity. They depended upon the
Northern Alliance for such information who often misled them into attacking Pakistani troops and
positions, as in Salala (Nov 2011, killing 23 Pakistani soldiers) rather than targeting the real threat.
Sixth, it takes years to make a commanding officer. Here in United States controlled Afghanistan, some
Einstein thought up this very silly notion that collecting a mob and arming them would do for an Army.
What’s worse is that everyone believed that this was possible. There were numerous times when we during
our inter-action warned the Americans that this was a no-go. That the arms and equipment would soon be in
Taliban hands. No one would see reason, after all we were the bad guys and were never to be believed. Here
are some facts that need to be noted:
1) First the recruitment of the soldiers in the ANA was open ended and any drug addict or a street criminal
could enrol.

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2) Second, this army lacked in leadership which it still does. This is because of accelerated promotions,
poor selection, corruption and lack of merit.
3) Thirdly, training was a missing factor and the soldiers remained green. The ANA is incapable of
operating without supervision and watch over by professional mentors even today.
4) Fourthly, because of the overall environment and the very unpopular Government, the Army lacks in
motivation. It has a very low morale and is not supported by the people.
5) Finally, the ANA are quick to surrender or join the Taliban, swelling their ranks, even though they are
not respected as fighters. This phenomenon has become a source of recruitment, fresh armaments and
supplies for the Taliban and this continues to grow as their offensive expands. Besides, the freeing of
prisoners by the Taliban has made a huge resource available to them from amongst the grateful inmates.
Seventh, the sudden Taliban sweep, in military terms leads to ‘dilution of effort in space’, which is
explained in plain terms as an over-reach. For any professional army, it would not take too long to exploit
such a dilution and conduct limited counter attacks in selected areas with overwhelming superiority in men
and resources at selected critical points. This is not happening or has not happened so far. This is because
contrary to common belief, the Taliban enjoy a degree of popularity amongst the common people which the
ANA do not. Thus movement, sustained presence and intelligence gathering is now becoming more and
more difficult for the ANA as compared to the Taliban. As hinted above regarding the ANA, one cannot
build an army in four years. It takes at least 12 to 15.
Fresh US troops: reality or Psy-Ops? Apparently, the situation now has amazed the United States and they
along with their sidekick, the United Kingdom, have released a press statement that they may deploy 3000
troops in the next 24/48 hours. They might, but I think this is more of a thrasonical brag than a reality – a
hope that such an announcement may stem the Taliban Blitz. Why would an evacuation of a few Americans
and Britons need 3000 troops when safe passage was already agreed to and had been successfully negotiated
at Doha? Is it visualized that this evacuation would be a product of blazing exchange of gunfire and chaos?
Or then, maybe there is a change of heart and the United States along with its allies wants to reverse the idea
of a withdrawal and that these 3000 troops are an advance body of more to come. If that be the case,
Afghanistan may well be subjected to foreign occupation by the United States once again. My feeling is that
it is more a warning to the Taliban than a reality, hoping that the threat of fresh inductions may convince the
Taliban to negotiate. I believe a sort of negotiated outline has now been agreed which may be implemented
in a few days to come. The highlights of the agreement so far envisage Ashraf Ghani stepping down,
Abdullah ceasing to hold office but being retained as a negotiator. The system will not be totally upset, and
the Taliban may except some representation by other ethnic and ideological groups. There is hope that there
will be no fighting for Kabul and that the Taliban will be given access to setup the new government.
Taliban Victory: Clear and Present Danger for Pakistan? The Taliban will likely form Government in
Afghanistan in the near future. No one in his right mind, not only in the United States but any where in the
world, would agree with their view on how governance should be administered or their human rights record.
However, that is for the people of Afghanistan to address, and others must avoid getting involved in
something that is internal to Afghanistan. Nevertheless, a Taliban Government in place, applying harsh laws
as are anticipated, impacting negatively on the emancipation of women and forcing society to follow their
obscurantist manner of life will stand up as an example all over. The general view will be argued that when
divinity is on your side, success is around the corner. That how a rag-tag Army with help of God Almighty
defeated the United States and the World and if they could, why can’t we too do the same? It’s a powerful
argument and it will unfold in Pakistan before it unfolds anywhere else. Pakistan is a soft country where
fundamentalism and extreme thinking comes into play. Society is already swayed by ideological rhetoric
and is susceptible to mob influence. Governments lack political will to enforce the law and the

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administration allows space to such extremists. Today Islamabad is flooded with madrassahs and Mullah
Aziz Burqa remains free to pollute society. The street power of religio-political groups is immense, and they
can shut the national communication system and bring life to a standstill. This can happen as they demand
that we too follow in the Taliban style effectively Talibanizing Pakistan.
Pakistan needs to protect itself from Afghan situation: This needs to be realized and safeguards must
be taken now failing which these groups can be funded, resourced and launched by external hostile agencies.
It can cause a severe polarization of society and create anarchic conditions. It needs to be noted that nothing
from Afghanistan can affect Pakistan as much as our own tentative responses and weak governance. Some
steps that must be put into place as soon as possible are recommended as follows:
1. Legislation must be passed to prevent anyone from disrupting the regular lines of communication across
the country. It is the constitutional right of every citizen to enjoy liberty of movement, and no one
should be allowed to disrupt this. Disrupting the National Lines of Communication is tantamount to
treason and must never be permitted.
2. Protests and political activity must be allowed only in specific venues and day to day routine life must
not be affected by it. Full media coverage should be given to these events; however, a proper panel of
think tanks should proffer their opinions and views informing society of a moderated position on issues.
3. Society must be encouraged to let everyone mind his own business and must be prevented from
interfering in the lives of other citizens. A law must be passed in this connection, complaint centres
must be established at the Mohalla levels and monitored at a suitable level to contain strong arm tactics
and coercion.
4. Laws governing financial transactions must be further tightened and the informal economy must either
not be allowed to remain functional or steps be taken to bring the informal economy into mainstream
financial systems.
5. The intelligence agencies must present their respective hypothesis and responses as an annual practice.
These presentations must be heard at an appropriate level. Pakistan is suffering mostly on account of
intelligence failures. These agencies need to be hauled up and asked to explain.
6. Police and Law Enforcement need to define training parameters allowing them to contain mobilization
of society through an extremist-oriented incentive. The police must be depoliticized so that they are not
influenced by various political parties. This calls for an autonomous Headquarter which is
self-sustaining in every way.
7. Events to be encouraged to allow society to participate in nation building through organized sports and
other competitive events. Society needs to be liberated from closed thinking obscurantist values.
8. Political parties and other national institutions must shed away their respective mullah groups with
which they blackmail each other. Negotiated settlement must never be adopted to for those who break
the law and instead they must be punished according to the violations that they have done. No petty
official should be authorized to negotiate with groups that disrupt routine life.
9. Immigration procedures must be made very stringent. The National Identity Card must be reviewed, and
it must be ensured that non- Pakistanis are not furnished such documents including passports. There is
no need nor any precedence anywhere to display one’s religion on the passport. It must be done away
with or remain optional. One’s religion is one’s own business.
10. The justice system must be revamped in keeping with the situation. Judges must be protected and not
openly exposed. Special courts may be set up to try people who deliberately disrupt day to day routine.

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Trials must be time lined. System to select judges needs to be reviewed. How one is elevated to higher
office must have a defined route and qualification.
11. NACTA must be activated to function fully or then be deactivated and dissolved. Its present status is
pathetic.
Pakistan has now existed for 74 years and survived many upheavals. It has capacity within itself to take this
bad situation, fluid moment and very dynamic environment, turning it into an opportunity. There are
opportunities. Pakistan’s geo-strategic location allows it to connect it to the region as well as to the globe.
There could be many stakeholders that could be facilitated by such a position by way of trade,
communication, and corporate synergy. Pakistan’s wellbeing is directly proportional to the stake holders it
gathers. It is in Pakistan’s interest to project inclusivity rather than exclusivity and as such a lot will depend
upon how we build our image amongst the comity of nation. (Written by Gen. Tariq Khan, retired as head of
Pakistan’s Central Command. Published in Global Village Space on Aug 15, 2021).
WOMEN RIGHTS UNDER A TALIBAN RULE
World attention remains focused on Afghanistan in President Ashraf Ghani faces a precarious situation
the wake of the withdrawal of US and Nato forces following the Taliban’s military successes, he was
from the war-ravaged country. Taliban’s aggressive assured of military and economic support by the
military offensive continues — and to everyone’s Biden administration which may help him survive
surprise, with massive success. Although Taliban for a few months. Taliban and the Ghani
fighters mainly hail from the southern Pashtun belt, government have been holding talks in Doha for a
they have also wrested control of several northern political settlement but the progress so far is bleak.
districts from the Afghan national army, with Given the Taliban’s aggressive military posture,
two-thirds of the whole country having come under there is a fear of a civil war, with adverse
their occupation. They have also seized major implications for the neighbouring countries also.
border posts like in Spin Boldak on the border with
With the Afghan situation turning scarier by the day,
Pakistan, Sher Khan Bandar on the border with
there is heightened international concern regarding
Uzbekistan, and others bordering Iran and
women’s rights, in particular. Women’s
Tajikistan. With Taliban on a roll, human rights —
organisations in Afghanistan and all over the world
especially those concerning women — have come
have been raising alarm about the dangers Afghan
under a sharp focus. Women’s rights were crushed
women are likely to face in case of Afghanistan’s
during the Mujahedeen government in Afghanistan
takeover by Taliban through use of force. There are
in the 90s. However, after the establishment of
growing worries that women’s right, including the
Karzai government following the Bonn process,
right to education, would be rolled back. During the
women’s participation in national life was
Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2002,
somewhat restored. But the fact that Afghanistan is
women were denied education, access to healthcare
a tribal society, there is hardly any support from the
and participation in public life. Their freedom of
Afghan leadership for protection of women’s rights.
movement was severely restricted and they were
Significantly, wives of Afghan leaders have
not allowed to leave their homes unless
virtually no participation in national life. This is
accompanied by a close male relative, and were
true for the Karzai and Ghani governments.
subjected to unfair punishments. Currently too,
Moreover, families of top Afghan leaders live
women remain deprived of their basic rights in
abroad. Abdullah Abdullah’s family lives in India
areas that have fallen to the Taliban, substantiating
and Rasheed Dostum’s in Ankara from where they
fears that the harsh treatment of women would
get financial support. The Doha Agreement leading
continue under a Taliban rule in Afghanistan.
to withdrawal of US and Nato forces has conjured
Believing in a strict interpretation of Sharia,
major challenges within Afghanistan as well as the
Taliban have strong proclivities to ban women
regional countries. While the government of
appearing in public or working outside their homes.

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Afghan women are, thus, traumatised at the thought
of revival of a Taliban rule. Under the
circumstances, there is a pressing need for the
world to address concerns over women’s rights
vis-a-vis education, health, work, freedom of
movement, and even life security. Women must be
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empowered and engaged at the negotiating table.
Governments across the world must try and ensure
women’s representation in the Afghan peace
process so as to conform to international
conventions and global practices. (Published in The
Express Tribune, August 15th, 2021).

SIGNIFICANCE OF SINGLE NATIONAL CURRICULUM (SNC)

Prime Minister Imran Khan has launched the first government has made a right move, which will
phase of Single National Curriculum (SNC) for have a very healthy impact on the social landscape,
class I to V, which will be taught in all educational besides, nudging an equitable socio-economic
institutions including government and private development. It will also rectify the
schools as well as in the seminaries with a view to well-entrenched maladies germinated by the
bring them into the mainstream by providing non-uniform system of education and curricula,
modern education to their students. The SNC for besides, lessening the degree of social stratification
class 6th to 8th is scheduled to be implemented that has been the bane of our socio-economic
from next year, while for class 9 to 12 it will development.
commence in the year 2023. It was part of the PTI
Sociologists use the term social stratification to
manifesto and the cabinet had approved this plan
describe the system of social standing. Social
for implementation on 25 February 2020.
stratification refers to a society’s categorization of
Reportedly, the government has prepared the model
its people into rankings of socioeconomic tiers
text books for the curriculum and private publishers
based on factors such as wealth, income, race,
will also be allowed to print them. A curriculum is
education, and power. Society’s layers are made of
an educational framework outlining skill and
people, and society’s resources are distributed
content milestones that need to be attained by a
unevenly throughout the layers. The people who
society ensuring dynamic flexibility that caters to
have more resources represent the top layer of the
its diversity of cultural, socio-economic and
social structure of stratification. Other groups of
regional backgrounds. It is a permeating view that
people, with progressively fewer and fewer
different systems and curricula being taught in
resources, represent the lower layers of our society.
schools and colleges, particularly in the private
In the modern era, democratic entities and societies
sector. It is quite discriminatory in nature and puts
are laying greater emphasis on equal chances of
the students studying in the government managed
success for every member of the society, which is
institutions at a greater disadvantage viz-a-viz the
only possible when there is one education system in
students of the private schools with regards to their
the country and a uniform curriculum for all the
future prospects of employability and career
students. Although there is no dearth of people who
prospects. The situation is even worse for the
would like to argue that hard work and talent, and
students of the religious seminars who remain
not prejudicial treatment or societal values
deprived of modern education with very limited
determine social rank, but the sociologists
chances of competing in the job market.
recognize that social stratification is a society-wide
Unfortunately, some seminaries have also been
system that makes inequalities apparent. While
promoting Jihadi culture and fissiparous tendencies
there are always inequalities between individuals,
within the society that promoted sectarianism,
sociologists are interested in larger social patterns.
religious extremism and terrorism, which further
Stratification is not about individual inequalities,
pose an existentialist threat to the country making it
but about systematic inequalities based on group
imperative to fight it out on the ideological front.
membership, classes, and the like. No individual,
The best way of doing so is to have a Single
rich or poor, can be blamed for social inequalities.
National Curriculum while also bringing the
The structure of society affects a person’s social
students of seminaries into the mainstream. The PTI

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standing. Although individuals may support or fight
inequalities, social stratification is created and
supported by society as a whole. Factors that define
stratification vary in different societies. In most
societies, stratification is an economic system,
based on wealth, the net value of money and assets
a person has, and income, a person’s wages or
investment dividends. While people are regularly
categorized based on how rich or poor they are,
other important factors influence social standing.
For example, in some cultures, wisdom and
charisma are valued, and people who have them are
revered more than those who do not. In some
cultures, the elderly people are esteemed while in
others, the elderly are disparaged or overlooked.
Societies’ cultural beliefs often reinforce the
inequalities of stratification.
One key determinant of social standing is the social
standing of our parents. Parents tend to pass their
social position on to their children. People inherit
not only social standing but also the cultural norms
that accompany a certain lifestyle. They share these
with a network of friends and family members.
Social standing becomes a comfort zone, a familiar
lifestyle, and an identity. Other determinants are
found in a society’s occupational structure.
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Teachers, for example, often have high levels of
education but receive relatively low pay. Many
believe that teaching is a noble profession, so
teachers should do their jobs for love of their
profession and the good of their students, and not
for money. Yet no successful executive or
entrepreneur would embrace that attitude in the
business world, where profits are valued as a
driving force. Such cultural attitudes and beliefs
support and perpetuate social inequalities.
Therefore, on a societal level, the best way to break
the log-jam of social stratification and mitigating its
effects lies in the adoption of an education system
under which students from all segments of the
society are imparted education of the same standard
and content so that they can compete with each
other on a level playing field with regards to
seeking different careers. Apart from the economic
dimension, such an environment also consolidates
social harmony and solidarity, which are the
much-required ingredients to crown the national
efforts with success and earning a respectable place
in the comity of nations. The PTI government has
indeed taken a great plunge forward in reforming
the education system of the country and giving it a
right direction. (Daily Times on August 17, 2021)

PHILOSOPHERS OF THE GOLDEN AGE OF ISLAM

“Three things are necessary for the salvation of man: to know what he ought to believe; to know what he
ought to desire; and to know what he ought to do.”
“The foundation of all foundations and the pillar of wisdom is to know that there is a Primary Being who
brought all existence into being.”
“Four traits lift a person to the highest ranks, even if their works and knowledge are little: forbearance,
humility, generosity, and good character. This is the perfection of faith.”
These three quotations comprise a part of a thought belong to the Golden Age of Islam, but it is
experiment proposed by Akbar Ahmed in his latest impossible to tell while reading the quotations that
book, The Flying Man, Aristotle, and the which of the three quotations was written by which
Philosophers of the Golden Age of Islam: Their philosopher as their sayings are demonstrating the
Relevance Today. The above mentioned three great commonalities among Christianity, Judaism,
quotations are taken from the writings of and Islam. (The first quotation is by Aquinas, the
Al-Ghazali, a prominent Muslim philosopher; from second one is by Maimonides, and the third one is
the works of Maimonides, the most important by Al-Ghazali). During the Golden Age of Islam,
Jewish philosopher of that age; and from Saint traditionally dated from the ninth century to the
Thomas Aquinas, the most significant philosopher thirteenth century, and relatively coexist with the
of the Catholic Church. All three great philosophers Middle or so-called Dark Ages in Europe from the

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fifth to the fifteenth centuries, an enormous number
of scholars and philosophers have lived and worked
together, primarily in the Muslim world. They were
influenced by each other and, particularly by the
works of the Greek philosophers who had lived
many centuries before them. Without the work of
these great polymaths, it is entirely possible that the
wisdom of the Greeks would have vanished. Not
only did the Muslim philosophers translate the work
of the Greek philosophers, they greatly expanded
on it while laying the groundwork for the eventual
Renaissance in Europe.
Akbar Ahmed, Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic
Studies at American University, is a widely
recognized and highly regarded anthropologist,
Islamic scholar, poet, playwright, and filmmaker.
He has also been a bridge builder among people and
faiths throughout his entire career. To utilize his
time during the Corona Virus pandemic, Ahmed
decided to study the plethora of philosophers who
worked and interacted during the Golden Age of
Islam. He chose four Muslim philosophers for
extended studies: Avicenna, Al-Ghazali, Averroes,
and Ibn-Arabi, in addition to Maimonides (Judaism)
and Aquinas (Christianity). The perception in most
of the West is that Islam has little to offer except
hatred and violence. Similar to Ahmed’s previous
works, The Flying Man reiterates how incorrect the
perception of West about Islam is. The flying man,
referred to in the title, is a thought experiment
proposed by Avicenna. If a man is created by God
in space with his limbs outstretched, unable to see
or hear; would he still be aware of his existence?
Avicenna argued that although the man may not be
aware of his body, he will still be aware of the
existence of his “self” or “soul.” All the
philosophers of the Golden Age of Islam were
concerned with seeking knowledge, what Ahmed
calls the “ilm-ethos.” They had different points of
view, but all were influenced in one way or another
by the Greek philosophers, particularly Aristotle.
The substantial questions they grappled with
included the nature of the universe, the nature of
God, and the question of resurrection after death.
Avicenna’s ideas resonate with that of Aristotle,
making him unpopular with some, although his
ideas regarding the separation of the body and soul
were more in line with that of Plato. Al-Ghazali
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pushed back against Avicenna’s position in favor of
a more traditionally Islamic one, but he, too, gave
considerable credit to Aristotle. Al-Ghazali’s ideas
greatly influenced Averroes (Ibn Rushd) and further
influenced Jewish and Christian thinking. Finally,
Ibn-Arabi was concerned with the mystical tradition
of Islam, Sufism, which in turn has influenced the
mystical traditions of both Judaism and Christianity.
The philosophers that Ahmed discusses had a
number of things in common in their personal lives.
They were all polymaths. Their work was not
confined to any one field of study, and they made
important contributions to mathematics, medicine,
chemistry, and astronomy in addition to their work
in philosophy. They frequently excelled in poetry.
Amid the difficulties of lives, they remained
devoted to the pursuit of knowledge and produced
prodigious amounts of work. Most importantly,
they created an intellectual tradition that would
define the Muslim world for centuries, a tradition
that needs to be revived.
So what relevance do these great men of the past
have for today’s world? What lessons do they teach
us in the 21st century? What advice can they give
us at present times when there is a possibility of
destruction of civilization? Contemporary world is
marred with rapid climate change, wildfires, storms,
desiccation of water resources, rising sea levels, a
pandemic that has caused millions of deaths
worldwide, racial and religious strife in numerous
parts of the world as the fear of the ‘other’ seems
more important than getting acquainted with the
‘other’ as advocated by the Quran, and the rise of
authoritarianism and hatred of the ‘other’. Ahmed
suggests a number of answers to these questions. I
will leave their details for the readers to discover
for themselves. But the most important one is that
this is not the first time that Humankind has
encountered challenging problems and that each of
the problems can be resolved by the application of
reason and the hope that comes from faith. This is
the basic lesson that one learns from studying the
works of the great Greek, Muslim, Jewish and
Christian philosophers, as well as the philosophers
of other faiths. Perhaps, this seems overly
optimistic, but optimism is necessary for
Humankind to survive and thrive. The optimism of
The Flying Man is a great gift that Akbar Ahmed
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has given us during these trying times. We owe him
a debt of gratitude. (Daily Times on Aug 16, 2021)
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS (SDGS) & PAKISTAN
When the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
were introduced in 2000 by United Nations, the 7th
among the eight main points was purely related to
ensuring environmental sustainability. Since then
there has been a lot of hullabaloo about ways to
achieve a sustainable environment. Following
MDGs, there were Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs) introduced in 2016 in a vow to transform
the world into a better place having 17 main goals.
Pakistan in this regard has unanimously approved
SDGs in 2016 as the ‘National Development
Agenda’. Ironically, Pakistan has shown a grim
performance in achieving MDGs. Therefore, now
for achieving SDGs, it is incumbent to set some
realistic goals and adapt some efficient strategies.
SDGs encompass the ‘schemes to achieve a better
and more sustainable future for all. In this regard,
the 9th goal of SDGs states that by the year 2030 all
the industries have to foster the process of using
technology to achieve ‘sustainable industrialisation’.
The 11th goal focuses on making the cities
sustainable as well as safe. The 12th goal of SDG is
all about ensuring sustainable production and
consumption patterns.
All of these goals can be achieved by adopting such
methodologies in the industries that could assist in
maintaining a sustainable environment and this
should not be done in a separate process but as a
part of the whole product lifecycle process. With
the contemporary maxim of “doing more and better
with less” in the industrial sector, methodologies
like Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) have been the
need of the hour. LCA is involved in the entire life
cycle of a product, so as a parallel process, it can
certainly contribute to achieving not only required
industrial standards but also international standards.
Even though we can find plenty of articles and
discussions on the suggestions to achieve SDGs in
Pakistan, we are still much far behind in applying
them practically. There are two major reasons for
this unfortunate situation in Pakistan. Firstly,
achieving SDGs is perceived to be the
responsibility of the government only, and secondly
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the available literature provides little guidance on
using various tools that may help in achieving these
goals in a practical way. To this end, life cycle
assessment methodology is the answer, as it allows
an effective comparison of products, processes and
technologies with the help of which the
decision-makers can easily decide about the one
with the least impact on the environment.
Conducting LCA studies in Pakistan’s industrial
sectors could help to actually target various SDGs
that are related to environment, production and
consumption, employment creation and others.
As LCA is there from the very first step of the
lifespan of a product till the last, from raw material
extraction to the step of manufacturing following
the disposal or recycling stage, therefore it has a
positive chronic impact by mitigating the
environmental hazards attached with product
production. As defined and explained by the ISO,
the major focus of LCA has always been on the fact
that how a product, process, technology or service
is playing its role in global warming, acidification,
resource depletion and others. LCA uses tools like
‘Carbon Footprint Measurement’, by assisting in
assessing the possible impact of utilization of water
on the ecosystem and overall facilitates keeping a
track of greenhouse gas emission. Moreover, the
notion of ‘handprints’ to reduce or prevent the
negative impacts while creating the positive
impacts is another feather in the cap of LCA. By
considering the aforementioned and many such
methods and tools LCA provides it becomes
incumbent to instill LCA methodology in the
industries of Pakistan to categorically achieve
SDGs goals effectively and efficiently. LCA has
been following all the international standards and is
a holistic approach in prominently reducing the
environmental impacts of a product. Industries in
Pakistan are in a dire need of a good data-intensive
model that can help in pursuing the
environmental-related goals in SDGs and LCA in
this regard has all the key features of a good
environmental management tool. Pakistan ranks
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129 on the SDG index as per the latest studies. We
need to be on track and set some realistic strategies
to achieve the 2030 agenda under SDGs for
sustainable development. Pakistan is the 5th most
vulnerable state to climate change, it is high time to
practically adopt methodologies that would help
control the variables that are provoking climate
change and environmental hazards. Pakistan should
set new revolutionary development agenda by
keeping the stats of post-Covid setbacks in the
industrial sectors. The policymakers need to
redefine the strategies associated with achieving
SDGs, and an array of thoughtful reforms is needed.
There must be interaction among the various goals
set under SDGs for instance goal 13 related to
climate change is connecting with the 11th and 12th
goal which is related to environmental
sustainability. ‘Green Tax’ culture should be
adopted by both the public and private sector of
Pakistan so that methodologies like LCA can easily
be implemented in all sectors of industries. The
private sectors in this regard should not take the
taxes as a loss of competitiveness. This would
rather help the manufacturers in Pakistan to ensure
environmental labeling of the consumer products.
Environmental labeling may be used as a marketing
tool for increasing sale both in national and export
market. Thus, the industries in Pakistan must
provide synergies among various activities to foster
the process of adapting LCA as an essential part of
the life span of a product being manufactured. In
addition, performing and reporting more LCA
studies would help develop life cycle inventory
databases that are currently not available in
Pakistan. The availability of such databases at
national level for various industrial sectors can be
used for various types of analyses and policy
decisions.
In Pakistan, various stakeholders, such as industries,
academic researchers and public institutions should
PAKISTAN’S COUNTERTERRORISM (CT) CHALLENGE
Pakistan’s counterterrorism (CT) challenge may not
diminish completely once the Taliban establish
their control in Afghanistan. Three possible scripts
may unroll in the coming months. A single defence
scenario may be a logical outcome involving all
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play their active and coordinated role in making
LCA an imperative part of the entire process and
target the SDGs in a measurable way. There should
be an active ‘Regulatory and Industry led Policy’ to
normalize LCA as part of our industries. With the
help of various institutions, like State Bank, Higher
Education Commission, the Ministry of Science and
Technology, and the Ministry of Industries and
Production, we may assist industries and academic
researchers for systematic and practical
implementation of LCA in industries. The academic
institutions may provide the technical services,
whereas the government institution may offer the
financial support. In this regard, the Pakistan
Bureau of Statistics should bring a ‘regime of
mandatory reporting’ for the industries where all
the stats and data should be publically available on
the life cycle environmental and sustainability
impacts of their products, processes and
technologies. The urgency for environment
protection initiatives under SDGs requires adopting
international standards such as LCA in our
industries at a fast pace. Moreover, the tree
plantation drive at the government level is an
appreciable act, however this alone is not enough.
The problem of environmental degradation is
multifaceted that requires to be confronted by
everyone, especially by our industries in order to
manage it at the root cause level. In a nutshell, we
can potentially control the environmental impacts
by adopting LCA in the industries of Pakistan
which will eventually contribute to achieving SDGs.
There must be more practical examples of
implementation of LCA in various industries of
Pakistan to have fruitful results. The government of
Pakistan, all the regulatory bodies, and the private
sector should do a collective effort to bring forth
LCA as a mandatory part of industries for the better
future of our coming generation else they would not
be able to meet their needs from the environment.
(Published in Daily Times on August 16, 2021)
anti-Taliban forces, present within and outside the
country, which may get united and form a single
unified force against them. However, it remains to
be seen how the unified force can find ground
support to launch a counter offensive after the fall
 25
of Kabul. The Taliban discipline and attitude may
define the nature and mode of any outside response.
Already we are witnessing a media onslaught
against the Taliban and their mode of security
management to discredit them and prepare ground
for an anti-Taliban public opinion. The current
situation suggests that the anti-Taliban front may
first discredit them, then urge the world community
for action and finally come up with some sort of a
hybrid counter action against them. The mode of
such counter offensive cannot be predicted at this
point in time. The Taliban need to establish an
effective media representative to engage with
foreign media proactively. They need to act swiftly
and secure their borders as well. There is a possible
militant dispersion effect as Taliban start
controlling one district after another. This may push
these groups outside their jurisdictions and force
them either to relocate or take refuge across the
border. These groups can stage attacks against the
LEAs of their new localisations. The Chinese
authorities have already conveyed their concern to
the Taliban about the possible scattering of East
Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). With more
territorial victories, the groups which were loosely
aligned with Taliban may offer their support within
Afghanistan for security management. However,
such groups have sufficient footprint in neighboring
countries and they can stage attacks against their
original nemesis with renewed vigour and energy.
Recently, there has been a spate of attacks by TTP
and Baloch sub-nationalists against police, army
and foreigners in the country for varying strategic
aims and objectives. The Taliban may not be in a
position to hand over these TTP elements to
Pakistan. A series of negotiations may be conducted
with the Taliban to settle these issues. There might
be a politico-tribal rapprochement between TTP
and Pakistani authorities through Taliban mediation.
CLIMATE CHANGE: THE DANGER LIMIT
The newest assessment report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a
UN-led body that periodically releases a synthesis
report of the latest climate science, is clear: the
climate crisis is well underway and it has been
caused by the burning of fossil fuels. The report
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Nonetheless, all elements within the TTP may not
reconcile with the idea and look for alternative
places of refuge inside or outside Afghanistan. If an
all-inclusive government is formed, these elements
may shift to the locations under governance of
non-Taliban political forces. Foot soldiers of ETIM,
IS and Baloch sub-nationalist parties may dilute and
hide among population till they feel that the time is
ripe for re-action. Pakistan’s CT challenge should
focus on three areas — local operations, regional
policy discourse, and international CT narrative.
The groups, which may disperse as a result of
Afghan conflict, should be identified along with
their associates in the country. The sleeper cells of
these groups pose a serious CT challenge for the
country. At the local level, the provincial CTDs,
police, and other paramilitary forces may be used
for conducting IBOs against these elements across
the country. These actions should have three
important ingredients. First, these operations are the
result of synergy of intelligence at regional,
provincial and national levels. Second, an
operational coordination among various CTDs or
police forces or LEAs should translate into ground
action in case such elements have trans-provincial
presence. Third, the result of such operation be
shared among all ground forces so as to further
initiate pre-emptive operations in new districts or
regions. The regional CT policy should be evolved
to counter regional militant outfits targeting the
country. Here, clear, logical and concise terror links
should be established during investigations in
various cases to share them with regional countries
and highlighted at different regional forums. Lastly,
we need to strengthen our international CT
narrative beyond terror-related fatalities, causalities
and economic losses. It should now be built on
improving social integration, enhancing national
unity and expanding economic connectivity. (The
Express Tribune, August 18th, 2021)
says the global average temperature has risen by 1.1
degrees Celsius since preindustrial times and it
could reach 1.5 degrees Celsius in 20 years’ time.
Remember that under the Paris Agreement 1.5
degrees Celsius has been prescribed as the danger
limit! The UN’s Paris Agreement was a landmark
 26
international accord signed back in 2015 to address
climate change. The agreement aims to
substantially reduce global greenhouse gas
emissions in an effort to limit the global
temperature increase in this century to 2 degrees
Celsius above preindustrial levels “while pursuing
the means to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees”.
Almost every country in the world adopted the
agreement and there were commitments from all the
major polluting countries to cut their climate
emissions and to strengthen those commitments
over time. The Paris Agreement was supposed to be
operationalised last year, but the UN Climate
Change Conference (COP26) was postponed due to
the Covid-19 pandemic and will be held this year in
November in Glasgow in the UK. The Glasgow
COP will be crucial for humanity: current policies
suggest that the planet is set for 3 degrees Celsius
of warming by the end of the century which would
be catastrophic for us all. We are already seeing
extreme rainfall, unprecedented heatwaves and
alarming sea level rise at just 1.1 degrees of
warming — imagine what would happen when we
reach 1.5 degrees or even cross 2 degrees! Leaders
from 196 countries including Pakistan are now all
set to meet in Glasgow for the major climate
conference. They will be asked to agree on drastic
action to limit climate change. Global temperatures
have risen faster in the last few decades than at any
point in the past 2,000 years. This summit is
extremely important to our survival on this planet;
humanity has to find a way to control climate
change together. The window for action is closing
fast.
NORTH AND SOUTH KOREA: DIVISION AND THEREAFTER
The Korean Peninsula is an area in present East
Asia, divided into two parts North and South
following the surrender of Japan in World War II,
on 2 September 1945, dominated by two
superpowers of the time, the USA and USSR, and
both parts of the peninsula adopted their respective
master’s system of government to become a
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North), on
9 September 1948 and the Republic of Korea
(South), on 15 August 1948. As it was the phase of
the Cold War in international politics, the two parts
of the Korean peninsula went into war, heavily
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Countries are being asked to prepare ambitious
targets to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases
going into the atmosphere by 2030. They will also
be asked how they will achieve “net zero” — i.e. no
more emissions going into the atmosphere than are
removed — by 2050. Since burning fossil fuels is a
major cause of emissions, countries would have to
agree to end the use of coal, stop deforestation and
switch to renewable energy resources soon.
Developing countries like Pakistan that are not high
emitters of greenhouse gases and are the hardest hit
by climate change say that funding to fight and
adapt to climate change is essential. They are
demanding compensation for the effects it will have
on them in the form of a Loss and Damage
mechanism. They are also demanding money to
help green their economies. The Green Climate
Fund was supposed to provide $100 billion a year
by 2020 for climate adaptation and mitigation in
developing countries. However, in recent
international climate meetings, rich countries have
shown reluctance to put forward the funding needed
to enable developing nations to cope with and
respond to the climate crisis. Last year, Pakistan
co-chaired the multibillion-dollar Green Climate
Fund.
As vice president of the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Pakistan has been playing an active role recently in
the climate negotiations. A proper delegation will
be sent to Glasgow to ensure that the country fully
participates in COP26 as a responsible state. (The
Express Tribune, August 18th, 2021)
backed by the USA and the US respectively. The
war began on 25 June 1950 and ended on 2 July
1953. Both parts became members of the United
Nations Organisation (UNO) on 17 September 1991,
and declaring the end of their internal conflict,
agreed to open a new chapter in their relationship of
peace, prosperity and reunification on 27 April
2018. The peninsula as a whole is bordered by
China to the northwest and Russia to the northeast,
separated from Japan to the east by the Korea Strait
and the Sea of Japan, occupying an area of 223,155
km with population of above 77 million, as
 27
estimated in 2017, with a density of 349.06 per
square kilometer. Most scholars admit that it was
after a king ‘Koryo’ who ruled a large part of
Korean Peninsula during Marco Polo’s time, but in
the 19th century this name of the country became
famous with the expanding of British and American
trade, and today it is used by both North as well as
South Korea. Historically, the Korean peninsula has
been ruled mainly by three dynasties-Silla, Goryeo,
and Joseon. The Silla began ruling in the 6th
century, then the Goryeo dynasty was founded in
918, which replaced Silla and, in time, in 1392, the
Joseon dynasty overthrew the Goryeo in a coup and
defeated them; but throughout the period and even
earlier, China wielded a powerful influence over the
peninsula.
For the first time in the history of the Korean
peninsula, Chinese influence was challenged in
1871 by Japan who began to exert equal or more
influence in the peninsula which led the war
between China and Japan, the China-Japan War
(1894-95), resulting in the signing of the Treaty of
Shimonoseki and as a follow up of its Articles, the
Chinese Qing dynasty was bound to relinquish the
traditional influence it availed earlier. From there
onwards the region was opened for Russia, Japan,
France, and the \USA, which all invested in the
country and the nation began modernising in the
sphere of the military, the economy, real property
laws, the education system and industry. As Korea
was already under the occupation of the Japanese
military, a suspicious treaty, the Japan-Korea
Annexation Treaty, was assumed to be signed, but
not ratified properly by the competent authority. It,
however, put the whole peninsula under Japanese
control in 1910. The Korean people considered the
treaty signed under duress, threat of force and
bribes. It resulted in non-violent mass movements
of the people beginning in 1919, followed by labour
unrest in 1939 in which thousands of people were
killed and in Korean history it was the phase of
Japanese use of repression and force by the military.
Although a significant number of Japanese also
settled in Korea, they all returned to Japan after the
second World War ended in 1945.
The year 1945 is very important in the whole
history of Korea Peninsula for it was partitioned
between two superpowers of the time, the USA and
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the USSR when Japanese forces surrendered in the
aftermath of second World War, and as agreed, the
North Of Korea came under Soviet occupation and
the South Korea remained under the USA, resulting
in the formation of a Communist-inspired
government in hew north part while its opposition
and pro-western government in south portion of the
area. In 1948 they also became separate political
entities having got their sovereignty. Along with
basic differences between the two, they went into a
declared war which lasted for three years (1950-53),
but it did not end their claim to be the sole
legitimate government of the region. Provisional
peace returned between them with the help of the
Korean Armistice Agreement which brought about
a peace and established a demilitarized zone, but no
formal peace treaty was signed. Following the
footprints of the Soviet Union North Korea is a
one-party state with a centrally planned economy.
In contrast to the South Korea, Article 1 of the state
constitution of North Korea mentions it as an
‘independent socialist state’. Although it holds
elections but described by observers as sham
elections having a totalitarian dictatorship with an
elaborate cult of personality around the Kim
dynasty, of which the current leader is Kim Jong-un.
The single dominant political party is the Worker’s
Party of Korea, led and controlled by members of
the ruling family. Likewise, according to Article 3
of the Constitution Juche is the official ideology of
Korea which is translated as ‘self-reliant’ and it
puts all means of production owned directly by the
state or state-run enterprises and collectivized farms.
Even in the constitution of 2016 there is no basic
change ideologically. Since 14 August 2020 the
Executive powers of the state is vested in the
Cabinet of North Korea headed by Premier Kim
Dok-hun who represents the government functions
independently. Situated on the southern portion of
the Korean peninsula, the independent country,
South Korea was an integral part of the peninsula
before its division in 1945. Unlike North Korea
where a Soviet-backed totalitarian government was
formed, South Korea was heavily backed by the
USA and formed a capitalist democratic country.
After its independence in 1948, and fighting a war
with North Korea for three years (1950-53), it
moved on the path of economic development and

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 28
registered the fastest rise in average GDP per capita
in the world between 1980 and 1990 and became
one of the advanced democratic countries of Asia
with a record of maximum freedom for press, it
however, earned a bad name in corruption at
highest levels. Even in last three-four years,
MODI’S EVIL DESIGNS ON KASHMIR
On 5 August 2019, the RSS philosophy follower,
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had taken
almost everyone within the country and abroad with
shock and surprise when he took the unilateral
measure of revoking Article 370 of the Indian
Constitution, thus removing the special status of
India’s illegally occupied Kashmir and merging it
in the Indian Union least bothering about its being
an internationally recognized disputed territory
between India and Pakistan, and placing the entire
population of the territory under complete
lockdown. The Kashmiri people have since
completed two years of being under military siege
with no signs of any relaxation in it and no
consideration of pleas being made to restore the
special status of Indian-Occupied Kashmir.
There are many factors which force the independent
minded people all over the world to be afraid of the
Indian Prime Minister’s further measures regarding
the future of Indian-Occupied Kashmir. Likewise,
Pakistan also has serious apprehensions and doubts
about Narendra Modi’s devilish thinking and plans
about Indian-Occupied Kashmir in view of his
designs to eliminate Muslim and other minorities
from India and also accomplish his devilish designs
of changing the predominantly Muslim majority
in Indian-Occupied Kashmir into a minority in
furtherance of his designs to have complete
Indian control over occupied territory in all respects,
leading to undermining the importance of
United Nations Security Council (UNSC)
Resolutions of 1948 calling for holding of a free
and fair plebiscite and letting the Kashmiris
exercise their right of self-determination which
India has been blatantly denying for more than
seven decades. In view of these serious
apprehensions and doubts, Pakistan has only
recently drawn the attention of the UN General
Assembly President and the UN Secretary
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corruption remained the main national issue,
resulting in fallout of highest Executive of the
country and mass demonstration at large scale
across the nation. It has also witnessed a heavy loss
of life due to the covid-19 pandemic for the first
time in its history. (Pakistan Today, Aug 13, 2021)
General towards possibility of India planning
further illegal actions in Indian-Occupied Kashmir
in the coming weeks and months, or may be just
after when the Kashmiris complete the longest
lockdown in the living history of the mankind
which is continuing in an unabated manner as a big
slur on the faces of the UN Security Council and
the international community. These measures could
be division, bifurcation, additional demographic
changes and continued military siege with a
massive evil campaign to suppress the Kashmiris’
legitimate demands and its gross and systematic
violations of human rights.
Ever since India’s illegal and unilateral actions of 5
August 2019, the occupying Indian security forces
have brutally killed, tortured, arbitrarily arrested
and detained hundreds of Kashmiris and also put
almost the entire Kashmiris leadership behind the
bars in Indian jails. In July 2021 alone, Indian
security forces have martyred 27 Kashmiri people
including two women as they carried on a so-called
house- to-house search in exercise of the massive
powers given to them. It is also a matter of bitter
record that following Indian-Occupied Kashmir’s
merger into the Indian Union and the ending of its
special status, the Indian Government has been
taking extraordinary measures to issue fake
domicile certificates to more and more Hindus in
pretty large numbers, thus paving the way for their
settlement in Indian-Occupied Kashmir and
bringing about the much-desired demographic
changes. Houses were being constructed in
substantial numbers in different parts of the
occupied Jammu and Kashmir for accommodating
illegally migrating Hindus in furtherance of
Hindutva. Needless to mention here that all the
unilateral and illegal actions taken by India in
occupied Jammu and Kashmir since 1951,
including the measures initiated after 5 August
 29
2019, as well as any additional unilateral changes
which India is apprehended to be taking in future,
are in sheer violation of the international law, the
Security Council Resolutions as well as the Fourth
Geneva Convention, and null and void as such.
Pakistan as a matter of fact has been drawing the
attention of the world body chiefs and the
international community every now and the about
gross human rights violations, ongoing brutalities
and atrocities on unarmed Kashmiris who are
carrying on their indigenous struggle for freedom
by exercising their right of self-determination in
accordance with the Security Council Resolutions.
But the response from all quarters concerned has
somehow not been quite encouraging as merely
expressing concerns over happenings in
Indian-Occupied Kashmir will not lead to a solution
of the lingering and burning Kashmir dispute.
Durable peace and stability in the region is closely
linked with the solution of the Kashmir dispute.
India for more than seven decades has been
blatantly defying the resolutions of the UN Security
Council and taking unilateral measures to
strengthen its illegal hold over occupied Jammu and
Kashmir territory. The international community
continues to look the other way and prefers to
express concern over tragic happenings in occupied
Jammu and Kashmir. As a tribute to India and its
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, pursuing the
philosophy of Hindutva, for persistently defying
CULTURAL IDENTITIES IN SOUTH ASIA
In present-day global society, we find a
contradiction, a gap, between cultural identity and
practices of politics and society as well, especially
after the coming of globalisation and liberalisation
which know no national boundaries and simply
believe in trans-border socio-political, economic
and cultural exchanges on a large scale, paving the
way for the clash of social identities on the one
hand and nationalism on the other. Even the clash
itself works in both ways-between and among the
nations where people of different cultural identities
live and within the same nation which is composed
of people having dissimilar cultural communities
and each and every community is conscious enough
to protect and promote its own, inherited identity,
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Security Council resolutions on Kashmir dispute,
more than 180 members of the United Nations in
January 2021 had elected India as a non-permanent
member of the Security Council for two years. India
has just been elected President of the UN Security
Council for the month of August 2021. Indian
Prime Minister Modi is most likely to virtually
address the Security Council, according to the
reports. In his virtual address to the Security
Council, Modi may dilate on some more unilateral
and illegal measures which he may be cooking up
in his devilish mind and then afterwards claim to
have taken the world at large into confidence.
Pakistan has already expressed its deep concern,
apprehensions and doubts about Indian PM Modi’s
evil designs about the future of Indian-Occupied
Kashmir. It is now for the United Nations and the
international community at large to be watchful and
vigilant and to sound strongly worded warnings to
India to refrain from taking any more unilateral and
illegal measures in occupied territory and avoid
further aggravating the human rights situation in
Jammu and Kashmir. Will they act now in support
of the suffering, struggling Kashmiris who are
engaged in their just indigenous freedom struggle
and pave the way for holding of plebiscite in the
IIOJK in accordance with the UN Security Council
Resolutions or just keep looking the other way with
their minds sleeping? (Published in Pakistan Today,
August 12, 2021)
obtained in the name of culture and civilization. In
this context, the word ‘culture’ has got an extended
meaning and directly relates to nature, a part of
biology and genetics which is the basis of our
physical features and our environment and
surroundings that also shape our identity, and
cultural diversity means differences in both senses.
In today’s state system practically all types of
identities are governed and controlled by political,
administrative and legal structures framed by the
government. As a result of the transnational
exchanges on a large scale with global access of
diverse expat, diaspora and migrant communities,
segments of people with these identities have
become international actors who desire to see and
 30
feel the development of their area and community
in worldly relative terms. Thus, the different
cultural identities of South Asian countries,
although having different cultures are one in feeling
and requirement. And this is why the governments
of the day are focusing loudly on inclusive growth
to get satisfactory results or appease all the bases of
society and politics.
The region of South Asia and its peoples present a
picture of diversity in unity, indeed of immense
diversity within a very broad contour of unity.
Among them there is great diversity in natural
attributes– imposing hills and mountains, lush green
river plains, arid deserts and brown plateaus. The
South Asian societies are marked by a plural
character in terms of languages, cultures, regions
and religions. The peoples of South Asia speak at
least 20 major languages and if we include the more
important dialects, the count rises to over 200. The
very diverse languages and language families of
South Asia have made enormous contributions to
world literature from ancient to modern times. The
major countries of South Asia also share a common
historical past in the form of the British colonial
rule, but in terms of political stability, economic
regeneration and socio-cultural change they
remained poles apart in the post-Independence
period with the exception that they cooperated each
other both at the bilateral as well as multilateral
levels under the umbrella of such forums as the
Economic and Social Commission for Asia and
Pacific (ESCAP), the Non-Aligned Movement and
the Commonwealth. The years following their
independence were full of internal characteristics of
the polities comprising the region, which ranged
widely from democratic, federal and parliamentary
to monarchical and unitary. The region of South
Asia shares certain things in common, and they are
the religious–cultural heritage of the ancient and
medieval times, and the administrative, political,
educational, economic institutions. Adherents of
major world religions, Hinduism, Islam, and
Buddhism are found in the Subcontinent. Hinduism
with its ancient roots, modern transformation and
multiple interpretations, plays a vital part in the
culture and politics of the subcontinent. The
greatest cultural and political achievements of Islam
have taken place in the Subcontinent, where more
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than 400 million of the world’s 1.3 billion Muslims
live today. Each of the three most populous
countries of South Asia – India, Bangladesh and
Pakistan, have nearly 140 million Muslims, next
only to Indonesia as the largest Muslim countries in
the world. Buddhism, apart from the formal
adherents in the land of its birth, continues to
flourish in Sri Lanka and the Himalayas as well as
in East and Southeast Asia. South Asia has also
significant numbers of Jain, Zoroastrian, Christian
and Sikh minorities. In the spheres of culture,
economy, politics and society the modern South
Asian history witnessed a number of significant
changes in which the pivotal role was played by the
intermediate social groups in the construction and
continuation of the British Raj. As a result of these
social groups the colonial state succeeded in
intervening in the earlier communal and caste
categories. They also refashioned the social
relations of class by the linking of Indian economic
regions to a wider capitalist system, and thus
created a new group in the Subcontinent’s society
for their benefit. The states of South Asia emerged
as sovereign entities after a prolonged struggle
against colonialism. In the post-colonial era, nation
building became an arduous task. It was all the
more challenging for multicultural states to blend
the diverse religious, linguistic and ethno-cultural
groups into a national mould. The majority of these
states devised the mechanism of a secular
democratic order to achieve this objective.
The departure of the Raj left a legacy of uncertain
frontiers and other disputes among the legatee states.
It was complicated further by the lack of self –
confidence in the leadership elites of the new
nations who frequently direct the fears of their
citizens against neighbouring nations in a mistaken
belief that this will strengthen the spirit of
nationalism and inspire internal cohesion. Real
problems among neighbours do exist and in the
South Asian System we can easily discern two
types of dialectical struggles that have in the past
influenced the nature of ties in the region. One type
of struggle is by India for a regional role of
dominance, maturing into either a sphere of
influence or a hegemonic order. Another is
primarily influenced by India’s ambitious role, is
the struggle by Pakistan and others for autonomy,
 31
independence and a sovereign existence. Terrorism
has profoundly influenced inter–state relations in
South Asia. With the world’s fastest-growing
markets, fastest–rising military expenditures and
most serious hot sports coupled with a toxic stew of
boiling religious, political ethnic, strategic and
historical animosities, made all the more volatile by
endemic poverty, illiteracy and the sheer agony of
daily existence, Asia holds the key to the future
international security order. Much of Asia’s
terrorist violence is concentrated in its southern belt,
which in the past decade emerged as the
international hub of terrorism. This southern part of
Asia, encompassing Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Chinese-ruled Xinjiang and
Tibet, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and
Myanmar, are wracked by terrorist, insurgent, and
INDIA’S CHANGING NUCLEAR STATUS
India’s nuclear power is expected to undergo a
significant expansion in the coming years in part
due to the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Agreement. This
agreement will allow India to carry out trade of
nuclear fuel and technologies with other countries
and significantly enhance its power generation
capacity. The international trade in nuclear material,
equipment and technology is largely determined by
the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG), an informal
group of 45 countries. Members include the USA,
Russia, France and the United Kingdom. India has
been kept out of this informal arrangement and
therefore denied access to trade in nuclear materials,
equipment and various kinds of technologies.
Nuclear technology provides a plentiful and
non-polluting source of power to meet its energy
needs. To increase the share of nuclear power in its
energy mix, India needs to break out of the confines
imposed by inadequate reserves of natural uranium,
and by international embargoes that have
constrained its nuclear programme for over three
decades.
In the circumstances, India made a Civil Nuclear
Agreement with the USA on 18 July 2005 to
overcome the growing energy deficit. The essence
of what was agreed in Washington was a shared
understanding of India’s growing energy needs. As
a result of the understanding reached between the
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separatist violence in a manner unmatched
elsewhere in the world. The number of annual
fatalities in terrorist–related violence in South Asia
far exceeds the death toll in the Middle East, the
traditional cradle of terrorism. The entire expanse
from the Middle East to South-East Asia is home to
militant groups and troubled by terrorist violence
posing a serious challenge to international and
regional security. Developments in several parts of
the world are prompting scholars and policy makers
to re-examine old theories of terrorism. The
terrorist slaying has belied the arguments that,
‘Simply killing a lot of people has seldom been a
terrorist objective. Terrorists want a lot of people
watching, not a lot of people dead. It, in general,
challenges the secular fabric of South Asia.
(Pakistan Today, May 7, 2021)
two countries, the USA had committed itself to a
series of steps to enable bilateral and international
cooperation in nuclear energy. These include
adjusting domestic policies, and working with allies
to adjust relevant international regimes. There was
also a positive mention of possible fuel supply to
the first two nuclear power reactors at Tarapur. US
support was also indicated for India’s inclusion as a
fuel partner in the International Thermonuclear
Experimental Research Project and the
Generation-IV International Forum. Surely, the
nuclear understanding with the USA has created a
great opportunity for international cooperation in
the area.
In favour and against there was a large amount of
opinions and analyses of nuclear experts about the
Civil Nuclear Energy Cooperation with the USA.
Ashley J. Tellis, a US analyst argued that the
Indo-US nuclear was attractive to India because it
gave it access to far more options on its civil
nuclear programme than would otherwise be the
case, primarily by ending its isolation from the
international nuclear community. These options
included access to latest technologies, access to
higher unit output reactors which are more
economical, access to global finance for building
reactors, ability to export its indigenous smaller
reactor size, pressurised heavy-water reactors,
 32
better information flow for its research community,
and many more. Finally, the deal also gives India
two options that are relatively independent from the
three-stage programme, at least in terms of their
dependencies on success or failure. The first option
is that India can opt to stay with the first-stage
reactors as long as the global supply of uranium
lasts. The plus side of this is that it covers any risk
from short-term delays or failures in implementing
the three-stage programme. On the negative side,
this is an option that is antithetical to the underlying
objective of energy independence through the
exploitation of thorium. Also, according to one
foreign analyst, the deal could over time result in
India being weaned away from its three-phase
nuclear programme involving fast bredeer reactors
and advanced pressurized heavy-water reactors.
This would occur if India becomes confident that it
would assure supplies of relatively cheap natural
uranium, including from Australia. In any case, this
distant possibility cannot be ruled out. The Indian
commentators, including Anil Kakodkar, the then
chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission,
Indian government’s official position and Indian
defence establishment, have consciously welcomed
the nuclear deal. Most of the Indian commentators
have found in it an opportunity for India that would
enable the country to end its international isolation
on the nuclear front and obtain a de facto
acknowledgement of it as a nuclear state to some
degree. In addition to it being able to obtain the
uranium that would increase the success potential of
its three-stage programme, as well as its efforts to
build a “minimum credible nuclear deterrent. Anil
Kakodkar made the comment publicly in a milder
and conscious way keeping the country’s
indigenous fast breeder programme out of the ambit
of international safeguards, saying, ‘in the long run’
the energy that will come out from the nuclear
fuel resources available in India should always
come from the larger share of the nuclear energy
programme…..and, our strategy should be such that
the integrity and autonomy of our being able to
develop the 3- stage nuclear power programme, be
maintained; we can’t compromise that.”
The Indian government, on various occasions,
reiterated its position clearly that India’s indigenous
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three-stage programme is unaffected by the
Indo-US nuclear deal and its full autonomy has
been preserved. However, one view within the
Indian defence establishment considered that the
deal “has for all practical purposes capped Indian
ability to field-test and proof high-yield nuclear
weapons till sometime in future when Indian
three-stage nuclear fuel cycle-based on thorium fuel
matures into mainstream power production, thus
eliminating Indian dependence on imported nuclear
fuel from NSG countries. Likewise, both right and
left-wing political parties opposed the deal in the
Parliament.The left feared the deal would make the
country subservient to US interests, while the right
felt it would limit further nuclear testing. After
being exempted from NSGs restrictions, India had
also signed nuclear agreements with Mongolia,
Namibia, Argentina, Kazakhstan and South Korea.
With Mongolia. India signed a crucial civil nuclear
agreement on 15h June 2009 for the supply of
uranium to India, during Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh’s visit to Mongoli,a making it the fifth nation
in the world to seal a civil nuclear pact with India.
The Memorandum of Understanding on
development of cooperation in the field of peaceful
uses of radioactive minerals and nuclear energy was
signed by senior officials in the department of
atomic energy of the two countries. The five
agreements signed on 2 September 2009, including
one on civil nuclear energy which allows for supply
of uranium from the African country Namibia,
which is the fifth largest producer of uranium in the
world. The Indo-Namibian agreement in peaceful
uses of nuclear energy allows for supply of uranium
and setting up of reactors. India signed two
agreements with Argentina and Canada, on civil
nuclear cooperation, on 14 October 2009, and 28
June 2010, respectively. On 6 November 2012,
India and Canada finalised their 2010 nuclear
export agreement, opening the way for Canada to
begin uranium exports to India. On 16 April 2011
and 25 July 2011, India signed nuclear cooperation
agreements with Kazakistan and South Korea
respectively for peaceful uses of atomic energy and
participation in India’s nuclear expansion
programme. (Pakistan Today, April 16, 2021)
 33
THE ORIGIN OF ATOMIC POWER
Daily we see a great variety of things in nature– the
sun, moon, and stars, mountains and seas, forests
and animals– but we cannot answer the question
who was the first person to think about atoms, or
later on nuclear theory. Men and women who had
studied the nature in depth, concluded long ago that
everything is made of small particles. At the same
time, perhaps the first simplifications were provided
by the chemists who were able, by processes of
destruction and analysis, to recognise certain
specific substances which are the basic building
materials of our world. These are called elements.
An element is defined as a substance which cannot
be further split-up or refined by chemical analysis.
It is equally wonderful that all the many hundred
thousand different kinds of matter that man has
found in this world, have turned out to consist of
just over 90 substances or elements. In the chemical
method, all matter on the earth is divided into two
main groups: chemical compounds and elements,
However, before this knowledge of chemistry man
had been speculating on the nature of matter for
hundreds of years on how the various kinds of
matter are built up. In common, they had found it
quite probable that each kind of matter was built up
from its own absolutely identical particles, which
could be further split up. For these particles, the old
Greek philosophers used the name atoms. Further,
the atomic theories assumed more closely defined
forms, a distinction being made between the
smallest particles, of the chemical compounds,
which were given the name of molecules and the
smallest particles of the elements for which the
name atoms was reserved. It also showed that even
the smallest parts of a chemical compound must
contain all those elements that make-up the
compound. Like this, the fundamental fact was
derived that the atoms of any given element have all
exactly the same weight. This fact helped in finding
the relation between the weights of the different
atoms, and also of determining the precise number
of atoms making up the molecules of a given
compound.
Historically, ancient Greece is the birthplace of the
word ‘atom’, made up of the Greek word atomos,
which means ‘indivisible’. Among the philosophers
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was took up the idea, Democritus, who belonged to
ancient Greece some 2400 years ago, said that
everything was made of tiny particles, or corpuscles,
so small that no one could see them. The particles
themselves could never change and they could not
be broken down into smaller particles. He was of
the view that atoms were the smallest particles that
could exist. ‘Let us look at a substance like water.
We may take a very small amount of it, a single
drop, and with some care we may divide this drop
into two tiny droplets. If it were possible to get the
proper tools and equipment, we might be able to go
on making tinier and tinier droplets, but could we
go on forever?’ Democritus, like other philosophers
believed that at a certain point, we would obtain a
droplet that could not be cut into smaller parts. The
smallest parts into which water could be cut were
the atoms. After him, for centuries people hardly
believed that atoms really existed and more people
thought it as the fruit of Democritus’s imagination
till the early 17th century when the Italian scientist
Galileo and the English chemist Robert Boyle
indicated some further scientific facts. While
Galileo said that he could explain odours and tastes
by supposing that some substances dissolve into
small corpuscles and these corpuscles might hit
sensitive spots in our tongues and nostrils, and
create the familiar sensation, Robert Boyle
(1627-1691), held that air, and all other gases
behaved as if they were made of corpuscles.
Gradually, more and more facts were being
explained by admitting that atoms existed.
Although Robert Boyle primarily studied the
expansion and compression of air, with chemistry
students still studying his Law on gas behavior,
with him atomism entered a new phase, from mere
reasoning to experimental observations. The
atom-related facts were further developed by John
Dalton who first expressed a scientific atomic
theory. Before his birth, chemists had come to
recognise the fact that while they could separate
some substances into simpler substances, there were
others they could never separate. It divided the
substance into chemical elements and chemical
compounds. Such substances as water, salt and
sugar which are made of more than one element,
were called chemical compounds, while the simple
 34
substances, such as hydrogen, oxygen, carbon,
chlorine, and sodium were given the name chemical
elements. In chemistry, Dalton had observed that
compound substances like water were made up of
simple substances in proportions which remained
invariable. No matter how small a quantity of a
compound was considered, the components were
always present in the same fixed proportion by
weight. Dalton assumed that finally the
fundamental components, in spite of their being
imperceptible, must retain their characteristics in
relative proportions. He called the basic units
‘atoms’ and made the further assumption that atoms
of one element are all identical in mass, while
different elements have atoms of different mass.
The determination of the proportions of the weight
of the different elements in every possible chemical
compound gave the chemist a means of finding the
relation between the weights of the different atoms
and also of determining the precise number of
atoms making up the molecules of a given
compound. Dalton’s atomic theory was really a
hypothesis, but it proved very useful in
summarising a large number of quantitative data
which had been obtained as the result of chemical
experiments. Although Dalton’s theory was correct
on the whole, yet like Democritus he continued to
say that atoms are the smallest particles into which
matter divides– that atoms are indivisible. A little
later the work of several physicists proved that
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atoms can break down into smaller pieces. In the
sphere of atoms a breakthrough came in early 1896
in Paris, when the French physicist Henri Becquerel
in course of testing a number of phosphorescent
substances found by accident, that when a
phosphorescent uranium salt is glowing, it gives off
not only light but also another radiation. A few days
later he discovered that the uranium salt could give
off the more penetrating radiation even if it is not
exposed to sunlight. The experiment encouraged the
scientist to test many other substances containing
uranium. Then he concluded that uranium was the
element that gave off radiation spontaneously. The
further work on radiation was done by Poland-born
French lady scientist Madame Marie Curie, who
discovered other elements that behaved like
uranium. Madame Curie did her hard work on
radiation and searched several other elements
—thorium, polonium and ultimately radium, that
gave off spontaneous radiation. While working she
found that a uranium ore called pitchblende
contained even stronger radiation than thorium and
uranium. She called the element causing this
radium. Isolating it was a major scientific
achievement, for which Madame Curie was
awarded a Nobel Prize in Chemistry, to go with her
earlier one in Physics. It proved to be extremely
useful both in research, for the study of the nature
of atoms, and in medicine for the treatment of
cancers also.