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JMLC
20,2
Earnings management detection
over earnings cycles: the financial
intelligence in Indian corporate
116 Sandeep Goel
Department of Finance, Management Development Institute, Gurgaon, India
Abstract
Purpose – It is largely believed that stock pricing is influenced by disclosure of earnings. This motivates the
corporate to exercise earnings management practices. This paper aims to analyse and detect the earnings
management practices of Indian firms over earnings cycles. The earnings behaviour of the firms has been
analysed at three levels of earnings cycles for the pricing effect: complete, incomplete and prospective. In India,
the corporate ownership model is promoter-dominated shareholders’model (PDSHM) which highlights the
relevance of the study for earnings-management motivation. This paper contributes by examining earnings
management of the units at three levels of earnings cycle with regard to stock pricing. Earnings cycles have
been decomposed into three components: complete, incomplete and prospective. While earnings management
has been studied extensively, virtually all studies have focused on firm-specific effects. This study relates
earnings management to the cycle of the earnings for stock-price effect.
Design/methodology/approach – The cash-flow model has been used for the computation of accruals
(Collins and Hribar, 1999), and D’Angelo model (for calculating discretionary accruals) has been used for
detecting earnings management in the present study, being comprehensive in nature and detailed in approach.
The results of the “complete earnings cycle”are measured by net income. The results of the “incomplete
earnings cycle” are measured by the ratio of gross margin over sales multiplied by inventory. It yields an
approximate measure of the unrealized holding gains and losses. The “prospective earnings cycle” stems from
the management decision to choose a rate of income growth. Statistical tools have been used for testing the
results. These include regression analysis and descriptive statistics like arithmetic mean, median and
standard deviation.
Findings – An examination of the units shows that firms report more discretionary accruals (DACC) at
complete cycle, i.e. when financial markets are more certain about their future prospects which influence their
securities’ pricing. It verified that unrealized income and growth prospects have very little role to play in
determining returns. The results indicated that each of the components of the earnings cycle has a relevance
factor for returns. In complete earnings cycle, DACC had the highest significance on returns than operating
cash flows (OCF) and non-discretionary accruals (NDACC). Its determination content is the highest. So, the
firms report more negative DACC when financial markets are less certain about their future prospects.
Stock-price responses to earnings surprises are moderated when firm-level uncertainty is high, consistent with
performance being attributed more to chance rather than performance.
Research limitations/implications – The present study could be confined to only top 12 profit-making
corporate enterprises in the private sector in India, leaving all other enterprises due to data non-availability. Of
25 enterprises, there were public sector undertakings too which had to be excluded. The period in the study is
of five years (from 2003-2004 to 2007-2008) to highlight earnings management motivation. This period is best
suited to identify the effects of global recession on the practice of earnings management in India. Researchers
may like to select a different time-period based on their perspective.
Practical implications – It is hoped that the study would improve the understanding of the manner in
which the capital markets process the publicly available earnings and its components for global firms. The
findings of this study are significant not only for organisations that function in India but also for other
Journal of Money Laundering companies that are based in economies with relatively mature corporate governance mechanisms. So, the
Control
Vol. 20 No. 2, 2017 authors’ findings have important policy implications for the Western world, as the sample companies are
pp. 116-129 multinationals and operate globally. Similar efforts in other countries would be rewarding in controlling the
© Emerald Publishing Limited
1368-5201
management of reported earnings and enhance the reliability and transparency of reported earnings to
DOI 10.1108/JMLC-06-2016-0023 promote economic efficiency.
Social implications – Evidence on this issue could bring a new dimension to how the capital markets Detection over
interpret these reported earnings and its components (cash flows, DACC and NDACC) at different levels of
earnings cycles for minority shareholders in particular. Further, the evidence could also provide insights into earnings
the economic incentives for discretionary accounting choice and disclosure of the results of these earnings cycles
cycles.
Originality/value – It is an original paper which highlights the earnings behaviour and its motivation in
Indian corporate enterprises for earnings cycles with regard to stock pricing.
Keywords Earnings management, Discretionary accruals, Earnings cycles, Securities pricing, 117
Indian corporate
Paper type Research paper
Introduction
Accounting research since the late 1960s has provided ample evidence of the significant
effects of accounting earnings disclosures on firms’ security prices (Lev, 1989). Earnings
appear to affect equity prices, even though the effect might vary in every case. Therefore,
opportunistic discretionary accruals (DACC) are exercised by the management for better
market pricing. Goel’s (2014) study evaluates the practice of DACC for earnings management
in the Indian corporate enterprises. His analysis shows the presence of accrual management
in the units.
Most of the earnings-related studies about market return restricted themselves to a mere
examination of the market pricing of a complete earnings cycle (AICPA, 1973). Therefore,
they suffer from a misspecification due to the absence of the effects of both incomplete and
prospective earnings cycles.
This paper contributes by examining earnings management of the units at three levels of
earnings cycle with regard to stock pricing. Earnings cycles have been decomposed into
three components: complete, incomplete and prospective. While earnings management has
been studied extensively, virtually all studies have focused on firm specific effects. This
study relates earnings management to the cycle of the earnings for stock-price effect.
For an earnings cycle to be defined as complete, three conditions should be fulfilled:
(1) a realized sacrifice of cash;
(2) a related realized benefit (receipt) of cash; and
(3) no further related substantive effort.
Evidence on this issue could bring a new dimension to how the capital markets interpret
these reported earnings and its components (cash flows, DACC and nondiscretionary
accruals) at different levels of earnings cycles. Further, the evidence could also provide
insights into the economic incentives for discretionary accounting choice and disclosure of
the results of these earnings cycles, particularly incomplete and prospective.
India got new Companies Act, 2013 after a gap of 57 years since old Companies Act, 1956
on account of various corporate scams which had shaken the confidence of investors at large.
The policy formulators in India amended Clause 49 of Listing Agreement to inculcate sound
JMLC governance practices among Indian corporates. This acts as a reference point to the nations
20,2 globally and that is why this study becomes important and timely.
Unlike countries like the USA where shareholder model of corporate governance prevails
and countries like Japan which have coordinated model, Indian companies witness
promoter-dominated shareholders’ model (PDSHM) with strong control of the promoters. In
private sector, majority of the companies are family-owned businesses having the largest
118 shareholder holding over 50 per cent. This necessitates the study for detecting earnings
management for protecting shareholders’ interest.
A study by Pathak et al. (2014) stresses that each country has “its own standards,
regulations and culture”, and therefore, there is a need to explore earnings management –
securities pricing relationship in that specific context.
This study evaluates earnings management practices of large corporate enterprises in
India at various cycles of earnings in the Indian context. Being these enterprises
multinationals, the findings will be of material significance globally.
The rest of the paper is organised as follows. Next section presents a detailed literature review
of related concepts for developing our predictions concerning earnings management and the
contribution of the study. Proceeding sections explain the hypothesis and objectives of the study.
Next section discusses the research methodology. Section 5 presents the results of the analysis
with Section 6 concluding the paper. Sections 7 and 8 present the limitations of the study and
implications for future research.
Review of literature
Earnings behaviour of the management has always been a topic of extensive interest by the
researchers. There have been studies on the existence of earnings management activities.
Discussions and research have expanded to issues such as measures of earnings
management, objective and motivation for discretionary earnings behaviour of the
management and ultimately its impact on market value.
Definitional perspective
Watts and Zimmerman (1978) state that earnings management occurs when managers have
a discretionary behaviour related to accounting numbers with or without limits, and this
behaviour can be adopted to maximise the value of the company. Schipper (1989, p. 92) says
that earnings management is “[…] a purposeful intervention in the external financial
reporting process, with the intent of obtaining some private gain […]”. Healy and Wahlen
(1999, p. 365) aptly describe the earnings management in regard to the management
behaviour:
Earnings management occurs when managers use judgment in financial reporting and in
structuring transactions to alter financial reports to either mislead some stakeholders about the
underlying economic performance of the company.
Hypothesis
The implied hypothesis is earnings management and pricing of securities are correlated. It
has been seen that the market attaches value to a complete earnings cycle and its
120 components, as well as to the results of incomplete and prospective cycles. Thus, hypothesis
for the present discussion is:
H1. There is a significant relationship between earnings cycles and stock prices for
earnings management.
The results of the complete earnings cycle are measured by net income (NI). It has been
decomposed into operating cash flows (OCF), (DACC) and nondiscretionary accruals
(NDACC). The incomplete earnings cycle variable will be denoted as URHGL (to correspond
to unrealized holding gains and losses). The prospective earnings cycle is referred to as
income growth (ING).
Tools/techniques used
Earnings-management models 121
The total accruals model. DACC models involve first the computation of total accruals. The
Cash flow model has been used for the computation of accruals (Collins and Hribar, 1999),
being the basic model for accruals’ computation.
This approach calculates accruals from the cash flow statement as follows:
TAcf ⫽ NI ⫺ CFOcf
where:
TAcf is the total accrual adjustments provided on the cash flow statement under the
indirect method;
NI is the net earnings of the business; and
CFOcf is the operating cash flows (from continuing operations) taken directly from the
cash flow statement.
D’Angelo model (for calculating DACC) has been used for detecting earnings manage-
ment in the present study, as it is comprehensive yet simple in approach. The discretionary
portion of accruals in the D’Angelo model is the difference between total accruals in the event
year t scaled by total assets (At-1) and nondiscretionary accruals (NDACCt). The measure of
nondiscretionary accruals (NDACCt) rests on last period’s total accruals (TAt-1). In other
words:
(TAit ⫺ TAit⫺1 )
DACit ⫽
Ait⫺1
where:
DACit is discretionary accruals for firm i in period t; TAit and Ait-1 are total accruals and
total assets for period t and t ⫺l for firm i.
Earnings-cycles variables. In order to analyze the effect of earnings cycles on pricing of
securities, following accounting variables have been used:
• NI (Net income): The results of the “complete earnings cycle” are measured by net
income. Net income (NI) can be decomposed as follows:
where:
OCF ⫽ Operating cash flows.
DACC ⫽ Discretionary accruals.
NDACC ⫽ Nondiscretionary accruals.
• URHGL (Unrealized holding gains and losses): The results of the “incomplete earnings
cycle” are measured by the ratio of gross margin over sales multiplied by inventory. The
JMLC rationale is that, assuming the ratio of gross margin over sales to stay constant, multiply it
20,2 by inventory yields an approximate measure of the URHGLit. The incomplete earnings
cycle variable will be denoted as URHGLit (to correspond to unrealized holding gains and
losses).
The incomplete earnings cycle variable will be denoted as URHGL (to correspond to
unrealized holding gains and losses).
122 • Income growth: The “prospective earnings cycle” stems from the management decision to
choose a rate of income growth. The most rational decision is to maintain or to increase the
present rate of ING.
The results of the prospective earnings cycle for a coming year t ⫹1 is equal to the income
of the year t multiplied by the growth of income from year t ⫺1 to year t. The rationale is
that a firm expects to achieve at least the same rate of income growth as in the preceding
year. This variable is referred to as ING.
Statistical tools. Statistical tools have been used for testing the results accurately. These
include regression analysis, t test and descriptive statistics like arithmetic mean, median and
standard deviation.
It improves earnings’ ability to explain market returns. This evidence is consistent with the
market’s attaching value to the results of incomplete and prospective earnings cycles, even
though they are not explicitly included in accounting reports.
Conclusion
The present study analyses the earnings management practices in corporate enterprises in
India at different cycles of earnings for stock pricing.
After studying the earnings cycles effect on the pricing of securities, it is found out that
the results of the regression of returns on measures of incomplete and prospective earnings
cycles were not significant as expected. It verified that unrealized income, and growth
prospects have very little role to play in determining returns. The reason could be that these
variables are not explicitly stated in the financial statements of company.
The results indicated that each of the components of the earnings cycle has a relevant
factor for returns. In complete earnings cycle, DACC had the highest significant on returns
than OCF and NDACC. Its determination content is the highest.
So, the firms report more negative discretionary accruals when financial markets are less
certain about their future prospects. Stock-price responses to earnings surprises are
moderated when firm-level uncertainty is high, consistent with performance being attributed
more to chance rather than performance.
Further reading
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JMLC Appendix 1
20,2
Serial no. Company PAT (2007) Rs. crore
Appendix 2
(Rs. in cr.)
Company 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008
(Rs. in cr.)
Company 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008