Stability Analysis of SEIR Model for Dengue Fever in KPK (Pakistan) 1

CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Overview

This chapter includes historical background of dengue fever. It also includes SIR model, SEIR
model, statement of the problem, our objectives and some basic definitions related to our
research work.

1.2 Introduction

Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease. It is considered as an infectious disease after Second

World War. According to World health organization (WHO), from all over the world, more than
2.5 billion people are at high risks from dengue fever (WHO, 1997). Presently the disease is
endemic in more than 100 countries. According to WHO, every year about 50 million cases of
dengue occurs. This disease becomes major epidemic in Southeast Asia. This disease is at high
risks especially in tropical countries. The rise in dengue fever is due to the unawareness of
knowledge of dengue infection in the people and due to climate changes by.

Dengue fever has four serotypes and it is caused by these serotypes namely DEN-1, DEN-
2, DEN-3 and DEN-4. These four serotypes are distinct from one another. The two female
mosquitoes Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus are the sources of transmission of a disease to
the host population. This disease is transferred to the host (human) population by biting of infected
vector.

In Pakistan, the first confirmed case of dengue hemorrhagic reported in June 1994 by Agha
Khan University hospital which was caused due to DEN-2. After this, from different parts of the
country, a large number of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases have been reported. In Pakistan,
in the months of June, July and August, the dengue cases are at peak. In Baluchistan Province due
to co-circulation of DEN-1 and DEN-2, an outbreak of dengue fever has occurred in year 1998 (R.
E. Paul, 1998). In Karachi, due to serotype DEN-3, a huge number of DHF cases were reported in
different hospitals in the year of 2005 (M. G. Guzmn, 2002). Thereafter, due to co-circulation of
Stability Analysis of SEIR Model for Dengue Fever in KPK (Pakistan) 2

DEN-2 and DEN-3 about 3,640 cases of DHF were admitted in different hospitals in 2006 (E.
Khan, 2007).

1.3 Dengue Fever

Dengue is an infectious disease, which is transmitted by an infected mosquito. The major

source of breeding of dengue fever is stagnant water. The symptoms of dengue fever are vomiting,
high fever, headache, body pain, tiredness and rashes.

The transmission cycle of dengue fever starts when a dengue infected vector bites a healthy
host. The period in which the virus circulating in the blood of the host and the healthy host becomes
infectious is called intrinsic incubation period 𝜏𝑖 (D. J. Gubler, 1987; M. G. Guzmn, 2002). Its
duration is about 4-7 days. During this period, an uninfected female mosquito (Aedes aegypti or
Aedes albopictus) bites an infected host and ingests blood from the host. Then in the mosquito an
extrinsic incubation period 𝜏𝑒 begins which is about 8-12 days. After this period the mosquito
becomes infected and the salivary glands of mosquito becomes infectious, when this mosquito
bites a healthy host, the mosquito ingests the salivary fluid into the wound of host body. Presently,
no vaccine exists, the only method is to control the disease is to combat the vector (mosquito).

The infected mosquito never recover from the infection. The life period of infected
mosquito is about fourteen (14) days and the infective period of infected mosquito ends with their
death (D. J. Gubler, 1987).

1.4 SIR (Susceptible→Infected→Recovered) MODEL:

SIR model is a mathematical model which is used to analyze the simulation of the
spreading of dengue infection between host and vector. SIR model also known as cress cross
model. SIR model happens between two populations, host population (𝑁𝐻 ) and vector population
(𝑁𝑉 ). The host population is divided into three classes. The people who have the possibility to get
infected is the susceptible class (𝑆𝐻 ), the people who get infected is infected class (𝐼𝐻 ) and the
people who are recovered from the disease is the recovered class (𝑅𝐻 ). The vector population is
divided into two classes the susceptible and the infected class. The vector who has the potential to
get infected is the susceptible class (𝑆𝑉 ) and the vector who get infected is the infected class (𝐼𝑉 ).
Stability Analysis of SEIR Model for Dengue Fever in KPK (Pakistan) 3

1.5 SEIR (Susceptible→Exposed→Infected→Recovered) MODEL:

SEIR model is one of the mathematical models which is used to analyze the simulation of
the dispersion of dengue infection between host and vector. This model consist of four classes
susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered class. SEIR model happens between two populations,
host population (𝑁𝐻 ) and vector population (𝑁𝑉 ). The host population is divided into four classes.
The people who have the possibility to get infected is the susceptible class (𝑆𝐻 ), the people who
are exposed to virus infection is the exposed class (𝐸𝐻 ), the people who get infected is infected
class (𝐼𝐻 ) and the people who are recovered from the disease is the recovered class (𝑅𝐻 ). The
vector population is divided into three classes the susceptible, exposed and infected class. The
vector who has the potential to get infected is the susceptible class(𝑆𝑉 ), vector that are exposed to
infection is exposed class (𝐸𝑉 ) and the vector who get infected is the infected class (𝐼𝑉 ).

1.6 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM:

Mathematical modeling plays a vital role in Engineering, Science and Medicine. Main
problem in this study to be addressed is designing a new model based on C. Favier’s model (C.
Favier, 2006) and to investigate the stability analysis of proposed SEIR model for dengue fever in
KPK (Pakistan).

1.7 OBJECTIVES:

1. To improve C. Favier’s SIR model (C. Favier, 2006) by introducing exposed class.
2. To add an extra term based on host mortality rate to the new proposed model i.e to introduce
a new parameter 𝜆 for host mortality rate.
3. To solve the new proposed model for intrinsic and extrinsic incubation period.
4. To check the stability analysis of the new proposed model. For this purpose, we will find
equilibrium points of the new proposed model and then will check whether these points
are stable or unstable.
Stability Analysis of SEIR Model for Dengue Fever in KPK (Pakistan) 4

1.8 DEFINITIONS

Basic Reproduction Number (𝑹𝟎 ):

It is the number of secondary cases produced when an infected host is introduced into the
totally susceptible population.

Epidemic:

It is defined as “when an infectious disease is spreading in a population for a short period

of time is called epidemic”. Mathematically, it depends on the basic reproduction number 𝑅0 .
When 𝑅0 > 1, it shows that the disease is epidemic in that region.

Endemic:

It is defined as “if an infectious disease is present in any form in any part of the world is
called endemic”. Mathematically, when 𝑅0 = 1, then the infectious disease is endemic.
Stability Analysis of SEIR Model for Dengue Fever in KPK (Pakistan) 5

CHAPTER TWO

2.1 Overview

In the modern era, the mathematical models in biology plays a vital role in the field of
medical for the analysis of the stability of infectious diseases like malaria, dengue fever etc.
In this chapter, we give literature review for the analysis of the stability of SIR model and
SEIR model of dengue fever.

2.2 SEIR Model For Transmission Of Dengue Fever In Selangor Malaysia By

S. Side (M. S. M Noorani, 2012):
In this paper, SEIR vector transmission of dengue fever is developed. Through basic
reproduction number 𝑅0 , the model described that the maximum level of human infection rate of
dengue fever attained in a very short time.

2.3 SEIR Model For Transmission Of Dengue Fever By S. Side (S. Side, 2012):

In this paper, SEIR vector transmission of dengue fever is developed. Through the system
of differential equations, all equilibrium points and eigenvalues was found. The stability of each
equilibrium/fixed point is discussed. At the end, simulation is carried out for different situations.

2.4 Estimation of Basic Reproduction Number for SEIR Dengue Fever Model
(The case of Dengue in Pakistan) by N. Badshah (H. Shah, 2005):
In this paper, the dengue data for the year 2010-11 of Lahore Pakistan is analyzed by
comparing logistic and exponential curve. In the model, the slop shows the force of infection which
is obtained by using real data of Lahore and then 𝑅0 the basic reproduction number is calculated.
At the end compared both the logistic and exponential curve through graph and then find the
relative percent error.
Stability Analysis of SEIR Model for Dengue Fever in KPK (Pakistan) 6

2.5 Estimation of Basic Reproduction Number for Dengue Fever in Lahore,

Pakistan by N. Badshah (N. Badshah, 2015):

In this paper, a model of dengue fever which was earlier proposed by Derouich et al. (2003)
is used. An explicit formula for basic reproduction number 𝑅0 is derived from the model. The
value of 𝑅0 is computed from real data of different hospitals of Lahore and it shows that the
dengue fever epidemic in that region.

2.6 Comparison of 𝐑 𝟎 from Different Models for Dengue Fever in Pakistan by

N. Badshah (N. Badshah, 2013):
In this paper, three models are used for the estimation of basic reproduction number 𝑅0 .
In the first model, 𝑅0 is used from the Marques et al. model (C. A. Marques, 1994), in which only
the recovery rate of human population is considered. In the second model, 𝑅0 is taken from Massad
et al. (E. Massad, 2001). In this model, the recovery rate and mortality rate of host population are
considered. In the third model, 𝑅0 is calculated from C. Favier model (C. Favier, 2006) in which
intrinsic and extrinsic incubation period are considered. The best value of 𝑅0 is obtained from C.
Favier model, due to the addition of two parameters i.e intrinsic incubation period in host
population and extrinsic incubation period in vector population. From the value of 𝑅0 , it shows
that the disease is epidemic in Lahore.
Stability Analysis of SEIR Model for Dengue Fever in KPK (Pakistan) 7

CHAPTER THREE

3.1 Overview

This chapter reflect the methodology of my research which I am going to use in my research
work.

3.2 Research Methodology

1) First of all, we will use a mathematical model containing ordinary differential equations
for the host population and vector population to study the dynamics of the disease.
2) From the ODE’s we will find all the equilibrium/fixed points.
3) From the equilibrium points, we will find the eigenvalues by using Jacobian matrix.
4) We will check the stability of all the equilibrium points by using Routh-Hurwitz criteria
(M. Robert, 1997).
5) We will derive 𝑅0 from the model.
6) In the end some simulations will be carried out for the different situation by using matlab
codes.

Through the value of 𝑅0 we will check whether the region is disease free, endemic or epidemic.
Stability of the equilibrium points is concluded by basic reproduction number 𝑅0 . If 𝑅0 = 1, then
the infectious disease is endemic. If 𝑅0 > 1, then the infectious disease is epidemic and if 𝑅0 <1,
then the population is disease free.
3.3 Organization of the Study

Chapter One: Introduction

Chapter Two: Literature Review

Chapter Three: Research Methodology

Stability Analysis of SEIR Model for Dengue Fever in KPK (Pakistan) 8

REFERENCES
World Health Organization Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever: Diagnosis, Treatment, Prevention and
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R. E. Paul, A. Y. Patel, S. Mirza, S. P. Fisher-Hoch, S. P. Luby, Expansion of epidemic dengue
viral infections to Pakistan. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2: 197–201, (1998)
M. G. Guzmn, G. Kour, Dengue: an update. Lancet Infect Disease; 2: 33–42, (2002).
E. Khan, J. Siddiqui, S. Shakoor, V. Mehraj, B. Jamil, R. Hasan, Dengue outbreak in Karachi,
Pakistan, experience at a tertiary care center. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical
Medicine and Hygiene, 101: 1114–1119, (2007).
D. J. Gubler, Dengue in the Arboviruses: Epidemiology and Ecology, 2: 223–260, (1987).
C. Favier, N. Degallier, M. G. Rosa-Freitas et al., Early determination of the reproductive number
for vector-borne diseases: the case of dengue in Brazil. Tropical Medicine and international
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M. S. M. Noorani "SEIR model for transmission of dengue fever in Selangor
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S. Side and M. S. M. Noorani. "SEIR Model for Transmission of Dengue Fever." International
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H. Shah, M. Javid, and M. Adil. "Estimation of Basic Reproduction Number 𝑅0 for SEIR Dengue
Fever Model." (2005).
N. Badshah, H. Shah, and M. Javid. "Estimation of Basic Reproduction Number for Dengue Fever
in Lahore, Pakistan." Sains Malaysiana 44.10 (2015): 1423-1430.
N. Badshah, H.Shah, M. Javed and M. Adil. "Comparison of 𝑅0 from Different Models for Dengue
Fever in Pakistan." IJECCE 4.1 (2013): 39-43.

C. A. Marques, O. P. Forattini and E. Massad. The basic reproduction number for dengue fever in
Sao Paulo state, Brazil: 1990-1991 epidemic. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical
Medicine and Hygiene 88, 58-59, 1994.
Stability Analysis of SEIR Model for Dengue Fever in KPK (Pakistan) 9

E. Massad , F. A . Coutinho, M. N. Burattini and L. F. Lopez. The risk of yellow fever in a dengue-
infested area. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 95, 370-
374, 2001.

C.Favier, N. De Gallier, M.G. Rosa-Freitas . Early determination of reproductive number for

vector-borne diseases: the case of dengue in Brazil. Tropical Medicine and International Health
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New Jersey, 1997.