2/28/2021

nd
2 Lecture-Sir Fareed

MIDDLE EAST:

Abraham Deal: It was deal between israel and UAE

The salient features of deal was: 1 UAE WILL RECOZINIED THE ISRAEL. They
have to established the diplomatic relations. Embassies were developed
2. DEFENSE and technological COLLABORATION WITH UAE: a. US will
provide f35-jets fighters. but it has suspended by biden. b.UAE will provide training
assistance to UAE in cyber crime. anti cyber technology training.. C. To counter
terrioism they trained .. D. Small weapons will be provided for countering terrorism
activities. F: Israel will collaborate in the field of navy, by providing different …
3. PEOPLE TO PEOPLE CONTACTS: a. Visa on arrival, 3 months free visa. b.
promote tourism in each other country. c. trade relations will be established. d.
Cultural similarities .. commonalities p kaam kia jaega

OBEJCTIVES OF ISREAL FROM THE DEAL:

1. Diplomatic recognition has been the top priority of Israel l. In the past 70 years and
so if ISREAL FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS THE REGION (MIDDLE EAST)
THREE THINGS. A. TERRITORAL EXPANSION) .. Zameen 1967 p khareeed ki
gae, baaad m kabza hua… recent example is Jeurosilm.
2. To counter the security threats: a.first was muslim threat.. Muslim world were
against israel. b. Current is rising insurgents ( Non state actors.. example: hammas ,
hisbola.. c.the threat from Iran.. by Iran supports the proxies like hizbola and himas..
Iran is threating israel by surgical strikes.
3. Diplomatic recognition: Israel has been recognized as soverign state by US,
Europe.. north American , south all have recognized majority of no Muslims have also
recognized. Only few of muslims countries have recognized like Egypt , Jordan 1994...
Now after Saudi major player is UAE .. IT recognized Israel. Behrain have recognized.
Sudan have recognized. Morroco, Lebnon is going to recognized. Number is
increasing….

OBJECTIVES.
1. Israel access UAE via aerial route through Saudi.
2.Israel wants to contain iran. That is why they are normalizing the relations with
middle east.
OBEJCTIVES OF UAE:
1. To strengthen the UAE defense capacities. UAE is faced with multiple existential
threats, primarily from n state actors, of which top is cyber attacks. In cyber tech
iSREAL is leading.
2. UAE non state actors ko counter krne k lie capacity develop krna chahta hai. they
can be provision of weapons.
3. UAE is known for sea trade - jabal e al-sea port. Now it is trying to build its navy.
It can do with the help of Pak, USA or Sireal.
4. UAE wants to strengthen its military, unho ne Us k sath deal krr dii..
5. To counter Iran and turkey and middle east: same policies are of Saudi, isreal. Iran
is existential threat for sunni world. Iran backed proxies ko contain krne hai. trukey is
encroaching in middle eat- jo arab countries ko accept nahe hai.
Diversify the tourism: tech business sko promote krna hai…
regional trade ko promote krna hai

US OBJECTIVES FROM THE DEAL:

1. It was electoral stunt of trump administration. to win the election the trump election
made the series of foreign policies moves. a. Doha deal with afghan Taliban. b.
Abham deal: win pro judism- zianist jue ko attract kia apne tarf.. leading
role: ………….
2. The deeper state of USA: HAS ALAYS BEEN SUPPORTING OF THE IDEA OF
PROTECTING THE ISREAL AS THE SOVERIGN STATE. and promote their
interests on global forums.

3. Not only Isreal is ally is USA. but arab world is also closer to USA. a.hydrocarbon.
b.major exporting market for US. c. US militray bases in arab wolrd. so the objectives
was to bridge isreal and arab worlds.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE DEAL:

1. Increasing alliances between isreal and sunni world. Reasons; to contain iran and
their supported proxies. whether Iraq , yemen, or lebnon, etc.
2. Weaponization in the Persian gulf: more and more weaponization in arab world.
Isreal is already major militray power.. its a nuclear power... is region ka stronges hai,
in navy, militray, cyber etc. Militraliy equipped country.
3. Iran is major militray power: after isreal is iran. it controls the strait of horzoze.
having a stronger presence in Persian gulf.. it has one of the leading missile system in
the world
4. Suadi arabia is largest importer of weapons in the world. IMCTC. Islamic militray
counter terrioism … UAE is trying to emerge as independent militray power-
weaponization.. Qatar is also going for weapnization..
territral by force expansion jo kr rha hai isreal wo slowdown hojjaega…
Election in Isreal .. benjam yahoo and …. if they elected in the govt, they will
annexed the Jordan valley/westbank. lekin UAE,behrain and morocco enho ne kahaa
we will recognized isreal on condition that wo mazeed annexation nahe krega.. they
have to drop idea of annexation of wesbank..
the idea of Pan islamization will decline.... almost every arab nation, or other musim
countries on the platform of OIC;they would not recognize the Isrewal as the soverign
state. because it is planted state by global powers on arab land. It is involved in the
territorial expansion so muslim world will not recognize them.

POLICY OPTIONS WITH PAKISTAN:

There seems to be increasing pressures from arab world. .Imran khan indirectly
mentioned in the speech as well as foreign minister.. Munir Akram speech showed it..
friendly countries- arab world-could be USA. Will we recogined?? probably not. PM
in speech directly mentioned. Forein policy determine hai humara.. secondly public
sentiment is anti isreal

Chaghbahar deal:
Iran canceled chagbhar deal with india and signed I with China. With initiative would
have far implications on pakistan, india , china , iran and region as whole.
Multiple reasons hn jis k waja sy ye hua…
In 2021 Iran decided to cancel deal with India. There were multiple reasons that is
why iran canceled deal with India.
Chaghbahar deal: between iran and india
1. The development of chagbahar sea port.
2. Construction of Chaghabhar zedan railway track.
3. Investment of 8 billion dollars.
4. MOU was also signed regarding central Asia, Iran , India gas pipeline via Arabian
sea.
Deal was canceled why?
1. India was slow in investment process.
2. The deal was signed 2006 and resigned in 2016.
3. The process of investment from india remained slow because Iran was on
international sanctions. But india was in no compulsion.. even when trump revised
sanctions on Iran.. US white house gave waver off on development of railway seaport
and chagbhar zidan railway. Yet again India did not initaite the zidan railway since
more than 4 years. India made only 300 million dollars. India was least interested in
chabhar seaport an zidan railway… India was not interested in developing these
projects, iran was wanting to become transit route.
4. India has been using chaghbhar seaport for militray intelligence .. india and raw
access.. and suporting separtist elements. .. due to which iran’s relations with pakistan
deteriorated. Kulshuban yadan raw agent ye sb kehta hai.
5. After US revived sanstions on iran, trump pressurized europe and india to downsize
thir energy imports from Iran. More than 80% cut from 2017 onwards… wo middle
east, Qatar, UAE jane laga…

Why Iran Signed deal with China:

1. China has reputation of quick investment…. In CPEC 62 billion plus project.. 25
billion is already arrived.
2. China is becoming increasingly economic lifeline for iran. When trump revived
sanctions on Iran and pressurized US ally for decreasing their imports from Iran, and
they duel y accepted it. But China is only country which not only continue their
energy imports but increased it. 26% energy imports from Iran.
3. When multinationals under the US pressure. China companies decided to fill that
gap. More than 480 dollars investment MOU were signed with chinese companies
with iran primarily in energy sector in 2019 till 2050.
4. Iran wanted tobe part of BRI to become trasit corridor. One of the propesed China
central asia corrdior, but it could not be materilzied untill and unless india deal with
iran.. India and iran are geostatic rivals...

Implications of the deal:

1. Implications on Pakistan: 1. Gawadar chabaghar rivalry will decease. Both the
seaports have been naturally rival seaports. The future access landlocked countries to
the arabian sea to be made via iran.. and this competition was intensified by the indian
factor by india connects central asia policy.. accesing central asia and afg through iran
bypassing pakistan.. rivalry increased. .. China don’t afford k ye dono rival bane..
both sea ports accommodate kre each other. Major investor in both seaport is china.
China chahye ga Compliment each other…
Special economic ports
Geo economic accommodation: Eastern and western afg will trade through pakistan.
 Security concern of pak will decline: raw has been involved in terrorist attacks in pak
specially balochistan and karachi.. serious of attack on china workers, ye sb attacks
BLA-baloch republican army. BLUF-baloch liberation united front. Sepeatists
groups- they have been supported by Raw india… and using afg as a launching pad
for terrioist attacks in pakistan.
2. Iran would not be used for acces to Afg by Raw.
3. China is making a tremendous entry in Iran that would be a permanent setback to
india.
4. Iran to be a transit corridor, China is materializing it..
5. Space for china is increasing in Iran, India role is decreasing..
6. India ka revival possible nahe hoga china k waja sy
7. Role in afg of India declines.
8. US-taliban Doha deal; India was out of that deal.
9. Intra-afgan negotiations; us m b india bhair hai, pakistan is on front in ongoing deal.
India crucial deals sy out horha hai..
10. The concept/idea of the emerging regional bloc jis m china, russia, turkey ,
pakistan .. us m iran k entry sure hogae hai.. Chaghabhr deal k baad India ek side
hogae hai..

Jurelsim:
Trump in 2017, he signed 22 years old bill, passed by US congress regarding
jerusalem.. US congress recognized the claim of Israel state. Capital should be
jerusalem of Israel. He also shifted US embassy Talave to jerusalem. It has far
reaching implications on palestine and world politics as a whole. Jerusalem is
demographic and ideoligical importance for Muslims, christians and Jews.
Jerusalem is divided in to east: muslim and christian, and jews.. west jerusalem mein
overwhelmingly jews hn.

Ideological Importance:
jerusalem. is important for muslim beause it is first qibla. The place where prophet led
the …. it is also important for christain; brith place of jesis christ, and crucified and
made flight to heaven .. oldest church .. City is equally important for Jews;Suleman
temple;where the box of sakena is placed but it is lost somewhere. And zianost jews
believes Isreal can not become great nation until box is not placing in sakena. It is
mourning wall for jews. Pergetion of emotion k rony sy khuda un k gunah maaf
krenge.
Zianist jew: that belives in the empowerment of israel state, and jurelism should be its
capital.

Importance of city as per international law:

As per UN charter jerusalem. Belongs neither to Isreal nor of palestine. It
administrative control is with Jordan.
Two state concept: east will belong to palestine and west of isreal.
UN response: A resolution was moved in UN by egypt against the decision of trump.
132 countries were against trump decision But America veto it. UN resolution m
move hua… lekin UN ka resolution binding nahe hota.
OIC was called in turkey. But like always it was on paper.. rough and tough speeches
against USA and Isreal.. practically kuch nahe hua… including turkey and iran..
Majority of Arab nations showed least interest… then American vice preseident said
Arab countries were taken into confident before signing bill.
Palestine were protested and imprisoned like always..
Would Jerusalem will become capital of isreal de-facto it is capital for israel. As per
international law it can not be capital, untill two sate concept is applied. Capital is
incomplted untill and unless the embassies are shifted there. Majority countries have
rejected.
Israel will continue with dual capital; 1. telAviv and 2. jerusalem.