International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41 (2019) 101326

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijdrr

Mapping characteristics of at-risk population to disasters in the context of

Brazilian early warning system
� a, *, Mariane Carvalho de Assis Dias a, **, Silvia Midori Saito a,
Regina C�elia dos Santos Alvala
Cl�audio Stenner , Cayo Franco b, Pilar Amadeu b, Julia Ribeiro b,
b

Rodrigo Amorim Souza de Moraes Santana b, Carlos Afonso Nobre c

a
Coordination of Research and Development, National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters - CEMADEN, 500 Estrada Doutor Altino
Bondensan, Distrito de Eug^enio de Melo, S~ ao Jos�e dos Campos, SP, Brazil
b
Coordination of Geography, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE, 500 República do Chile, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
c
Institute of Advanced Studies, University of S~
ao Paulo, S~
ao Paulo, SP, Brazil

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Due to the increasing rise of climate-related disasters in the world, knowledge of risk, monitoring and early
Brazil warning, dissemination and communication, and disaster preparedness have become demanded. Early Warning
Disaster risk areas Systems (EWS) have been proposed as a strategy for reducing the vulnerability of populations living in at-risk
Early warning system (EWS)
areas. A current challenge in knowledge of risk and disaster preparedness is the inclusion of sociodemo­
Exposure indicators
Vulnerability
graphic characteristics of the population in EWS. In order to contribute for an initial comprehension of the di­
mensions of vulnerability in Brazil, the aim of this paper is to understand the conditions of at-risk populations at
an intra-urban scale and the potential application in the Brazilian EWS (BEWS). Through an integration of de­
mographic data and landslide and flood risk mappings of 825 municipalities historically affected by disasters in
Brazilian territory, an estimation of 8,266,566 people and 2,470,506 households was achieved. This result in­
dicates that for every 100 inhabitants, 9 lived in disaster risk areas in Brazil. A novel database containing
sociodemographic and infrastructure basic services data is available for specific analysis of those who are
exposed to disasters. These data, associated with hazard forecast, are essential for effective early warnings, which
allow actions focusing the reduction of human losses. The knowledge of at risk population in Brazil may
contribute to the identification of the more critical areas that require priority response actions, such as the ones
with more presence of elderly, children and a higher concentration of residents in households without sanitation,
which are indicators of vulnerability.

1. Introduction
Considering the fact that disasters affect all continents, several
countries have invested in the implementation of actions focused on
disaster risk reduction (DRR). These efforts have prioritized actions that
are consistent with those recommended by the Hyogo Framework for
Action (2005–2015) and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction (2015–2030). Among these actions, Early Warning Systems
(EWS) constitute an efficient strategy to collect and analyze data in real
time, and to help provide early warnings to subsidize mitigation re­
sponses to lessen the impacts of disaster on human life and property.
Thus, among the non-structural mitigation measures that are available
for reducing human losses ensuing from disasters, EWS are significant in
assisting authorities in DRR [20]. Some studies have highlighted the
efficiency of EWS in reducing not only mortality risk [95] but also
economic impacts [72,79]. The term EWS is defined as the set of ca­
pacities that are necessary to generate and disseminate timely and
meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities,
and organizations that are threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act
appropriately and within sufficient time to reduce the possibility of
harm or loss [89]. An effective end-to-end and people-centered EWS
comprises four main interrelated components: knowledge of risk,
monitoring and early warning, dissemination and communication, and
preparation [9,88,90]. A failure in one component or the lack of

* Corresponding author.
** Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: regina.alvala@cemaden.gov.br, rcalvala@gmail.com (R.C. dos Santos Alval�
a).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101326
Received 2 May 2019; Received in revised form 5 September 2019; Accepted 6 September 2019
Available online 9 September 2019
2212-4209/© 2019 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
R.C. dos Santos Alval�
a et al.
coordination across them can lead to the failure/inefficiency of the
entire system.
EWS is not restricted to monitoring and forecasting hazards. It is also
necessary to identify the target population that is potentially at risk [9]
and to develop a response capacity of the populations that are at-risk,
through an improved assessment of critical situations [67,93], as well
as the development of warnings with the use of language that suits the
target population [26,33,35,53] . EWS largely center on monitoring and
forecasting, given the lack of available information on vulnerability and
exposure [100]. Currently, one of the challenges in establishing capac­
ities for disaster monitoring at the national level is the identification of
population that is vulnerable to and affected by disasters; thus,
national-level EWS do not include this type of information yet [87,91,
92].
In Brazil, the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme
rainfall in combination with population exposure has triggered disasters
such as landslides, floods, and flash floods [11,36,60]. The largest
number of fatalities results from such disasters [28]. Monitoring and
issuing warnings for landslides, flash floods, and floods whenever
necessary have been carried out at the federal level since 2011 by the
National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters
(CEMADEN), under the direction of Presidential Decree No. 7513, date
July 1, 2011. Since then, the Center has dedicated itself to monitoring
disaster risk, currently for 958 municipalities, which requires knowl­
edge of different aspects of vulnerability for exposed social systems, in
particular, those related to the critically monitored municipalities [49,
75]. The monitoring and decision-making process to issue warnings
about disaster risks are carried out in a control room, which is staffed by
operators who are employed to analyze environmental variables, to
identify potential hazards and vulnerabilities, and to communicate
warnings to an emergency response team [45]. Therefore, warnings is­
sued by CEMADEN are different from meteorological warnings, since
they are not restricted to the forecast of hazards. Improvements in the
quality of warnings issued require in-depth knowledge of the exposed
population living in disaster-risk areas. From the sociodemographic
database provided in 2010 by the Brazilian Census, a methodology was
developed to associate population data with areas mapped and identi­
fied as susceptible to landslide, flood, and flash flood risks [5]. In order
to understand the dimension of population vulnerability in Brazil, this
study extrapolated the methodology to other municipalities that have
historically been affected by disasters, such as landslides, floods, and
flash floods. Thus, the aim of this paper is to understand the conditions
of at-risk populations at an intra-urban scale and the potential applica­
tions of data in the context of Brazilian EWS (BEWS). The identification
of regions and populations that are vulnerable to the impacts of natural
hazards is useful for proposing measures focused on reducing social
vulnerabilities and improving risk governance mechanisms [18,96]. The
detailed knowledge of the populations that are vulnerable in
disaster-risk areas constitutes the first step toward improving the
people-centered warning system as recommended by UNISDR [88]. This
type of system can empower individuals and communities threatened by
hazards so that they can act in a timely and appropriate manner in order
to reduce the possibility of personal injury, loss of life, damage to
property and the environment, and loss of livelihoods [88]. The status of
actions implemented in several countries with respect to the use of EWS
population vulnerability data are presented in the following segment.
2. Population vulnerability in EWS
In general, information on population risk, exposure, and vulnera­
bility has been incorporated in DRR strategies, both while planning to
deal with emergency situations and while subsidizing EWS [39]. In
France, for example, vulnerability analysis is included in the natural
hazard prevention plan, wherein the information is associated with
hydro-meteorological conditions and is disseminated every day to the
population [17]. In China, data related to the more vulnerable groups
2
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41 (2019) 101326
are included in emergency plan in order to support efforts toward the
mitigation and prevention of disaster. Further, information on the im­
pacts, intensities, and potential losses from disasters is also included in
these warnings [76].
In the USA, information on population characteristics has been
included in estimates of the potential impact of disasters, which may be
incorporated into risk warnings that are officially issued by the National
Weather Service (NWS) or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), as well as to support response by identifying
priority areas for evacuation planning and shelter definition [52].
In Japan, some provinces have been investing in participatory
vulnerability mapping in order to subsidize disaster prevention. For
several decades, the country has been improving its weather forecasting
technologies and communications infrastructure to disseminate
disaster-related information [41]. Since 2007, risk warnings have been
issued by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which continuously
monitors hazardous situations. Based on the assessment of feedback
from survivors living in temporary housing complexes in the country, a
recent study recommended that among other priorities, there is a need
for the dissemination of warnings to the population at risk with due
consideration for different age groups [69].
Assessment of susceptibilities and improvements in hazard moni­
toring, enhancement of dynamic models, and the incorporation of ad­
vancements in EWS knowledge have all been addressed in several
studies [25,44,68,74]. Although several initiatives have aimed at iden­
tifying the population at risk, the scientific literature is scarce with
respect to how this information is incorporated in EWS at the national
level. At the regional and municipal levels, some studies have focused on
the use of population information and vulnerability in EWS, and have
reported their findings in the literature [42,43,78]. In Indonesia, infor­
mation on socioeconomic vulnerability has been integrated into an EWS
tsunami model for Padang City [78]. Initially, questionnaires supported
the design of a people-centered EWS. Information on the socioeconomic
characteristics of the population at risk (e.g., income) allowed the
definition of a more efficient means of risk communication by consid­
ering different population groups, as well as the proposition of specific
disaster response actions.
A method for incorporating information on the social vulnerability of
the population into an evacuation model associated with hydrological
disasters has been implemented in Huaraz, Peru [43]. From the social
information gathered, it was possible to identify the areas that required
the greatest attention, and to estimate the time taken to evacuate the
population from these areas. This approach is especially useful in
defining resource allocation in priority areas in order to mitigate disaster
risk, where specialized human resources and infrastructure are scarce. In
the context of Hurricane-related EWS, population vulnerability has been
considered in the Caribbean to support the monitoring of risk situations
and the identification of critical areas, particularly to promote the pre­
vention and mitigation of the disaster, as well as the construction of
more resilient communities [42].
In Brazil, 71 institutions are engaged in hazard monitoring and
disaster risk assessment. Of this, 19 are at the federal level; 26 include
partnerships between federal and state institutions (e.g. Sistema de
Alerta da Bacia do Rio Doce, implemented in 1996); 12 are at the state
level (e.g. Sistema de Alerta de Inundaço ~es do Estado de S~ ao Paulo -
SAISP, created in 1977; and Plano Preventivo de Defesa Civil do Estado
de Sa~o Paulo - PPDC, created in 1988 and for monitoring landslides); 2
are at the regional level (e.g. Centro de Operaç~ ao do Sistema de Alerta,
which monitors the Itajaí river basin since 1984), and 12 are at the
municipal level (e.g. AlertaRio, which monitors the municipality of Rio
de Janeiro since 1996) [59]. In general terms, some institutions monitor
current weather conditions, forecast weather conditions, rely on the
knowledge of the extent of susceptibility of the areas in question,
providing warnings that do not include information on vulnerable
populations. Notwithstanding the efforts of such institutions toward
hazard monitoring and disaster risk assessment, population
R.C. dos Santos Alval�
a et al.
vulnerability has only recently been considered as a relevant variable in
EWS at the national level, as mentioned in the introduction.
3. Methodology
In order to estimate and characterize the population living in at-risk
areas of landslides and/or floods in Brazil, the methodology adopted
consisted in the association between the databases of the demographic
census and the mapping of the risk areas, described in a previous article
[5]. Fig. 1 illustrates the methodological diagram, which is presented as
follow.
3.1. Selection of databases
The first step of the methodology consists in defining the databases to
be used, which included geographic information about the risk areas, i.e.
mapping of the risk areas of landslides, floods, and flash floods, as well
as information about the population from the demographic census.
Fig. 2 presents an example of the spatial distribution of risk areas
(Fig. 2A) and territorial units from the territorial base of the 2010
Population Census (Fig. 2B, C and 2D) for a specific locality, in the Itajaí
municipality, Santa Catarina State.
The total area of Brazilian territory is 8,515,767.049 km2. The pre­
sent study incorporated 27,660 polygons, which together represent an
area of approximately 3000 km2, associated specifically with disaster
risk areas. The database includes the mapping of risk areas in 872 mu­
nicipalities at critical risk of occurrence of landslides, floods, and flash
floods, which was mostly conducted by the Geological Survey of Brazil
(CPRM) (about 90% of the municipalities). CEMADEN currently moni­
tors 958 municipalities at critical risk of disasters in Brazil, for which
risk mappings are available, from several sources and for different years
(CPRM, City Halls from the City Risk Reduction Plans - PMRRs, the
Department of Mineral Resources – DRM of Rio de Janeiro, the Institute
for Technological Research - IPT, the Geological Institute – IG, etc.). It
must be noted that, for this study, a lower number from the total of
municipalities monitored by CEMADEN was considered, since the task
Fig. 1. Methodological diagram to estimate the at-risk population and characterize the conditions of vulnerability.
3
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41 (2019) 101326
of associating socioeconomic data with the risk areas is still underway.
Fig. 3 presents the spatial distribution of the 872 municipalities
analyzed. The high concentration of cities in the East coast of the
country is associated with the process of land occupation on this region,
which in turn is susceptible to the occurrence of natural disasters related
to the occupation of hillsides, mountain tops, and the margins of water
bodies [82]. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Cities (currently
Ministry of Regional Development) the risk areas are defined as the ones
susceptible to the occurrence of natural or induced processes or phe­
nomena that cause accidents and people who reside in these risk areas
are vulnerable to physical injury, and subject to losses and human or
material damages [15]. These areas are represented by polygons in the
geographical boundaries of a site, and are determined by signs of soil
movement observed in the area, such as soil movements (step abate­
ment), cracks in houses, inclined poles or trees, erosion at the bases or
length of slopes, and others. The possible signs of soil movement are
observed in field by specialists in mapping risk areas [29]. Risk areas can
also be delimited from other environmental parameters, such as geol­
ogy, slope, geotechnics, vegetation and natural drainage [81]. It is
highlighted that the above definition of risk areas is the same adopted by
Assis Dias et al. [5] for three pilot municipalities previously considered
for the development of methodology.
In Brazil, since 1937 the institution responsible for the national
population census is the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
(IBGE). A survey is conducted every 10 years with the aim to determine
the total number of inhabitants, identify their characteristics, and reveal
how they live [50]. For this study, the sociodemographic database of the
last census, conducted in the year 2010, covering 5565 cities in Brazil
was selected. Among the 872 municipalities analyzed, 4272 census
tracts and 193,377 block faces were selected. For the present study, only
data from urban areas were considered (i.e. areas within the urban
perimeter as defined by municipal law).
It is noteworthy that the decadal periodicity is a recommendation of
the United Nations Department of Economy and Social Affairs, for
allowing the information comparison and, in general terms, the
description of the present and prediction the future [85]. Although in
R.C. dos Santos Alval�
a et al.
Fig. 2. Examples of a database selected to create the statistical territory base of risk areas (BATER), which polygons were selected for the municipality of Itajaí, SC.
the context of the disaster risk theme it would be ideal to collect soci­
odemographic data regularly, the high cost of the demographic census is
a limiting factor [84]. For population analysis, it is expected that the
ten-year interval represents the demographic trend during the period
between censuses, considering that children became teenagers; more
children were born; and so on.
According to the official definition from IBGE [50,51] the territorial
unit of registration control for data collection in the census is named the
census tract and it is formed by adjacent areas and inserted into
political-administrative borders, with urban and rural legal definitions.
The urban areas of the 2010 Population Census was made possible by
associating residences to the block faces. Each block is generally a
well-defined rectangular area in an urban zone, limited by streets and/or
roads; it can also have an irregular shape and be limited by elements
such as railroads, rivers or declivities. The block face is one of the sides
of the block, and may or may not contain residences. Nevertheless, for
the purpose of disseminating the Census results; the smallest territorial
unit used is the census tract [47,48,97]. The information associated with
block-face data is not available to the general public due to restrictions
related to statistical confidentiality. However, the block faces data,
which are grouped in census tracts, may also be grouped by at-risk area,
thus preserving the privacy of information provided by the individuals.
Another territorial limit included in the census is the subnormal ag­
glomerates (AGSN), which is an assortment of at least 51 low income
residences, distributed in a disordered and/or dense way, most of them
lacking essential public services.
3.2. Processing of databases
The above-mentioned databases have different characteristics since
they were established for different purposes. Thus, there is no direct
spatial correspondence between them. The link between the census in­
formation and risk areas cannot be made directly and automatically due
to geometrical differences between both block faces.
Using the premise above, it was necessary to create a new territorial
base in order to associate census data with risk areas. This was named
4
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41 (2019) 101326
the Statistical Territorial Base of Risk Area (BATER). BATER constitutes
a territorial generalization since an exact intersection between both
original polygons was not possible. Therefore, the data generated from
the “BATERs” do not quantitatively represent the population residing in
at-risk areas instead BATER offers an estimate of the population living in
these areas.
3.2.1. Graphical delimitation of new territorial base: Statistical Territorial
Base of Risk Areas (BATER)
The graphical delimitation of each BATER was initially established
by analyzing the occupation density and the building standards in at-risk
areas, taking into account the census tracts or block faces and the
associated data [5]. This analysis was made by visual interpretation,
observing the spatial context of the risk area and the census limits.
Regarding the operational procedures to develop the BATER,
Quantum Gis 1.8 and ArcGIS 10.2 software were used. With these
softwares’ a supervised classification was conducted, utilizing high
definition satellite imagery and Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) avail­
able on Google Earth. Identification of housing and topographical pat­
terns, based on the risk areas and census tract or block face was made.
3.2.2. Definition of vulnerability indicators of at-risk populations
Vulnerability reduction of at-risk populations through structural and
non-structural measures is an efficient strategy for the mitigation and
prevention of disasters. The UNISDR [90] considered vulnerability as
the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environ­
mental factors or processes that increase the susceptibility of an indi­
vidual, a community, assets, or systems to the impacts of hazards.
Following this conceptual approach, it can be noted that one of the first
steps needed is to identify the factors that directly influence vulnera­
bility. This study focused on factors related to livelihood vulnerability,
characterized by determinants such as gender, age, and literacy,
showing how multidimensional this concept is [3,10,19,21,30,32,37,58,
62,64,71,73,101]. The knowledge of the vulnerable population helps
understand why communities affected by the same hazard respond and
recover in different ways.
R.C. dos Santos Alval�
a et al.
Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of the municipalities analyzed and risk areas per region in Brazil.
The vulnerability of the populations may be considered as a guiding
principle in the context of monitoring and early warning, in order to
indicate the most critical areas in the municipality that require imme­
diate action in case of imminent danger from hazards, given the com­
bination between the residents’ response capacities and their exposure
conditions. From over 600 variables made available by the census in
2010, 318 were selected to associate the resident and household char­
acteristics that were relevant to monitoring and early warning. Of these,
183 related to age, gender, literacy, etc., and 135 related to access to
basic services such as electricity, sanitation, water, and waste collection.
Table 1 describes variables indicating the vulnerability of the pop­
ulations and households selected for this exploratory analysis.
Men, women, children, elderly, and adults respond differently when
they encounter a disaster; and therefore, knowing about them and their
vulnerabilities may help, for example, in the development of disaster
contingency plans targeting these groups in particular [46,61]. The
classification by age group may help define priority areas for civil de­
fense actions at the time of a disaster or when a disaster is imminent.
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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41 (2019) 101326
Children and elderly people are the most vulnerable to disaster since
they require special care, given their greater dependence on help for
autonomous locomotion and decreased capacity to resist potential in­
juries [98]. Each group has different ways of coping with disaster; in
contrast to most adults, children and the elderly may not be able to react
adequately during an emergency and may require assistance [54]. In­
dividuals in these age groups, in general, tend to remain longer at their
households and may thus be more exposed to risk. For this study, we
consider those aged less than 5 years as children, in an agreement with
the Law No. 12796 of 2013 [13]. We consider the elderly as those who
are aged 60 years and above, following the standard established under
the Elder Law Statutes (No. 10741 of 2003) [12]. Identifying the number
of individuals exposed in terms of gender and age may help prioritize
particular actions and steps toward evacuation when danger from a
hazard is imminent. Locations with the highest concentrations of chil­
dren and elderly people deserve special attention as they need to be
evacuated faster given their increased vulnerability.
The capacity for response to and protection of social groups may be
R.C. dos Santos Alval�
a et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41 (2019) 101326

Table 1 was possible to associate the housing and residential data from census
Variables selected for the exploratory analysis of vulnerability in the context of tracts or block faces provided by IBGE 2010 Population Census. This
monitoring and early warning. procedure was done using the spatial join technique of the ArcGis 10.2
VARIABLE VULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY program. Concomitantly, a table of attributes was created for BATER.
CONDITIONS (percentage) INDICATOR (dimensionless) This table includes detailed information about each BATER polygon and
AGE Children (less than 5 years Low residents response their attributes (geocode, origin information of each BATER related to
old) and elderly people capacity and high exposure census tract or block faces, number of risk areas in each BATER, accu­
(more than 60 years old) racy, and additional observations). The attributes of each BATER are
GENDER and Illiterate heads of
described in detail in Assis Dias et al. [5].
LITERACY households per gender
INCOME LEVEL Residents with a household
income per capita of up to 4. Results and discussion
half the minimum wage
WATER SUPPLY Residents without general High exposure of residents
From the spatial distribution of the risk areas (27,660) and the
water supply network (according to the
WASTEWATER Resident with inadequate characteristics of the
population census databases, a total of 8309 BATER polygons were
TREATMENT wastewater treatment household) delimited. From this, 6435 BATER polygons had associated population
SYSTEM system data. The majority of this last number of BATER polygons originated
SOLID WASTE Residents without regular from the block faces (87% of the BATER polygons), while the remaining
collection
originated from census tracts. The block face contains the most detailed
ELECTRICAL GRID Residents without electrical
grid or meter information possible at the census level (i.e., the level of data disag­
gregation is the one that is closer to the size and distribution of the risk
areas in the territory) [5,49].
affected based on their income levels [57,83]. The absence of income for As mentioned above, the 6435 BATER polygons generated were
the head of the household indicates a diminished response capacity and distributed into 825 municipalities, and the estimate revealed that
can impair the reestablishment of a normal situation [97]. The impact of 8,266,566 people were exposed to the risk of landslides, floods, and flash
disasters was greatest on the life expectancy of women, especially those floods in 2010 [dataset] [102]. This result indicates that, for every 100
who fell within the low-income group [70]. On the other hand, the role inhabitants, 9 lived in at-risk areas in Brazil. The total number of
of the level of women education is a determinant factor for the risk to households exposed in 2010 was 2,470,506 (Fig. 4). Most of the mu­
which they are exposed (i.e. women with a higher education level may nicipalities analyzed (293) were located in the Southeast Region. These
have higher incomes and better capacity for adapting to risk) [94]. municipalities comprised over 4,200,000 people who were vulnerable to
Other authors have discussed the importance of data collection, anal­ floods and landslides. This was followed by the Northeast Region, with
ysis, dissemination, and use based on gender and have pointed out that 2,949,067 people being vulnerable to floods and landslides across 275
there are more cases of mortality resulting from disasters and municipalities. In the South Region, a total of 703,368 people across 139
post-disaster morbidity among women [34]. municipalities were vulnerable to disaster, while the number in the
The exposure of residents and the characteristics of the households North Region was 340,204 across 101 municipalities, and in the Central
may reveal situations of vulnerabilities to disasters. The presence of Western region, the number was 7626 across 17 municipalities.
households located in at-risk areas without a general water supply Using the methodology proposed by Assis Dias et al. [5], it was
network may result in an increase in soil saturation, particularly in the possible to arrive at a realistic estimate of the number of people
context of informal access, which may trigger landslides. It is also crucial vulnerable to disaster in the country, particularly those living in at-risk
to pay attention to households that have forms of wastewater treatment areas. It should be emphasized that the only information previously
other than through a sewage network or septic tank, because in addition available about the population living in at-risk areas was limited to the
to indicating the level of precariousness in the household conditions, it average estimate of 4 residents per household by CPRM, without any
also helps us better understand the human factors that favor the additional information about their socioeconomic characteristics. With
occurrence of landslides, which in turn can increase the vulnerability of the previous estimate, a larger population contingent was quantified as
the population. The relationship between an inadequate wastewater living in at-risk areas in the Southeast Region of the country as opposed
treatment system and the presence of rudimentary septic tanks in areas to the Northeast Region. Although the Southeast Region has more than
vulnerable to landslides was addressed by several authors as one of the 17,000 at-risk areas and the Northeast Region has only about 5000 such
anthropic conditions favoring the occurrence of disasters [1,2,4,24,25, areas, the population exposed in the Southeast Region does not signifi­
65]. cantly differ from that in the Northeast Region (i.e., in the Northeast
Since inadequate solid waste management in hillsides may trigger Region, there is a higher concentration of people living in at-risk areas).
landslides, it is also relevant to consider the absence of regular collection In comparative terms (percentage of the population exposed relative to
in at-risk areas. In precarious settlements in Sa ~o Paulo, landslides the total population), the Northeast Region show the highest percentage
occurred because of the accumulation of waste in the hillsides, instead of (12% of the total population exposed in at-risk areas), whereas the
soil or rock movement [65]. The presence of waste may also clog drains, Southeast Region shows only 9.8% of its population as living in at-risk
prevent water from running off, and intensify the processes of urban areas (Fig. 4).
flooding. From the data at the municipality level, it is clear that the percentage
The absence of an electric meter in the household can serve as a of individuals living in at-risk areas across several municipalities in the
proxy for irregular access to electricity even if the supply grid is acces­ North, Northeast, Southeast, and South regions of Brazil was greater
sible to the residents. A blackout during a disaster may decrease access than 25%. The 103 municipalities with over 25% of the population
to information provided through radio or TV and may hamper the res­ living in at-risk areas (i.e., for every 10 inhabitants, 4 are directly
idents’ ability to charge their smartphones. Supply companies must exposed to the risk of landslides, floods, and flash floods) are highlighted
prioritize the reduction of vulnerability for those who have irregular in red in the maps of the regions in Brazil that have been studied (Fig. 5).
access to electricity. To know the number of people exposed in at-risk areas is useful to
support the definition of civil defense actions when a disaster is immi­
3.3. Association of the census databases to BATER polygons nent. This information may be incorporated into contingency plans,
which may in turn help support actions taken toward preparedness.
After delimitating the territorial database of the BATER polygons it Contingency plans have been proposed to reduce human and material

6
R.C. dos Santos Alval�
a et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41 (2019) 101326

Fig. 4. Number of total population and households at risk per Brazilian regions.

Fig. 5. Location of the 103 municipalities with more than 25% of the total population living in at-risk areas in the four regions of Brazil.

damage, which may include risk scenario planning, definition of
monitoring actions, as well as preparedness and response [27].
In Brazil, Law No. 12608/2012 [14] established the responsibilities
of the Union, States, and Municipalities in drawing up such plans. The
local governments are responsible for the planning emergency shelter
and disaster scenario exercise; for the collection, distribution, and con­
trol of supplies when a disaster seems imminent; and for providing
temporary housing for people affected by disasters. The information
generated in the present study is relevant to subsidize local governments
with these responsibilities. For example, in a hypothetical scenario, it is
necessary to provide shelters in safe places in order to enable the best
assistance for people living in each region of risk in a municipality. The
estimation of the population living in at-risk areas is relevant for the
provision of support, the identification of evacuation routes, and the
arrangement of the necessary means of transportation for the popula­
tion, as well as for the estimation of the total number of people involved
in each specific situation.
Among the 825 municipalities analyzed with BATER-associated data,
most of them (81.6%) corresponded to small cities, that is, those with
less than 100,000 inhabitants. From the total, 125 municipalities have
between 100,000 and 500,000 inhabitants (15.1%), whereas only 27
municipalities (3.3%) have more than 500,000 inhabitants. The most

7
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a et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41 (2019) 101326

critical municipalities, considering the distribution of the population at-
risk divided by the total population of the city, are presented in Table 2.
From the total of small cities (673 municipalities), 92 of them have more
than 25% of the total population living in at-risk areas. Thus, the smaller
cities analyzed are those that are most critical to disasters in Brazil, since
about 16% of the population was exposed to disaster risk in 2010, if
compared with the ones exposed in large cities (8%).
No significant difference was observed in the distribution based on
gender. As many as 51% of the exposed individuals in the 825 munici­
palities analyzed were women and 49% were men, of which 59% were
the heads of households. Among the illiterate heads of households, 52%
were women (Fig. 6). This proportion was observed in the Southeast
Region, where 55% of the illiterate heads of households were women
and 45% were men. The South Region presented the highest contrast in
terms of gender, where 63% of the households in at-risk areas were
headed by men, and 37% by women.
The results indicate that in disaster risk areas in Brazil, although
most households are headed by men, there is a higher predominance of
female non-literate heads of households. In the present study, gender is
inserted in a circumstance of life. In the context of gender, a study
conducted in Brazil focusing on a large risk area located in Rio de
Janeiro [94] highlighted the crucial role of women’s level of education
as a determinant of the risk situation to which they are exposed. That is,
they found that women who had higher levels of education were likely
to have higher levels of income and thus enjoy better risk adaptation
capacity. The results of this study suggest that education plays a more
decisive role for women than men in adaptation. This characteristic of
the disaster-prone population in Brazil can help identify actions that are
especially directed toward women who are heads of households, such as
by increasing access to education and providing opportunities to help
them improve their ability to adapt to risk. It is necessary for policies to
take the gender dimension into account alongside other factors of social
differentiation, in order to enable an appropriate action-oriented
approach toward addressing gender vulnerabilities [6].
It must be noted that the census does not include data on the level of
education of the residents, and thus, the identification of the education
level of the women at-risk in Brazil was not possible. This limitation has
an adverse impact, due to the difficulty to describe the different roles
and responsibilities that are ascribed to men and women [22,23,70].
Therefore, in gender-focused studies, men and women should not be
considered as binary groups; rather, gender inclusion should consider
men and women as belonging to different groups and categories in terms
of education, income levels, and age [40].
In the risk areas within the municipalities analyzed in this study, it
was found that 18% of the population that were exposed to risk belonged
to the most vulnerable age group comprising children (9%) and elderly
people (9%). In all regions, the percentage of elderly was similar to the
one of children, excepted for the North region (Fig. 7). Both age groups
are considered to be the most affected by disasters [31,69]. For example,
children are at a vulnerable age wherein they are not only undergoing
physical development, but also cognitive and emotional development.
Studies have shown that efforts to disseminate information on hazards
and vulnerability to children and young people can help reduce the
extent of their risk exposure and make them more resilient to disasters
[58,66,77,99]. In Bangladesh, a study focusing on 9-year-olds found that
when they are educated and trained on addressing and handling di­
sasters, they are able to respond like adults can, to risk, although they do
continue to face other negative effects of disasters [1]. In Brazil, an
experiment conducted with children aged 10 and 11 years from a school
in Miguel Pereira, Rio de Janeiro, aimed to assess the relevance of ed­
ucation to DRR. The study highlighted the high level of acceptance and
commitment of students, teachers, the Municipal Secretariat of Envi­
ronment, and the Civil Defense of the Municipality. The benefits that
interdisciplinary education provides to disaster-vulnerable commu­
nities, is relevant to promote better knowledge on disasters [63]. It is
thus essential to quantify the population in terms of age group and to
understand population distribution within the municipal territory by
age in order to identify areas of priority and schools that can be relied on
in developing DRR-related educational policies.
A higher concentration of residents lived in households that had per
capita incomes of up to ½ the minimum wage when compared to other
areas within the municipalities. This characteristic was observed in all
federal regions and in a majority of the states that were analyzed indi­
vidually (Fig. 8). The results obtained in this study indicate that the
exposed population in at-risk areas lived in very poor economic condi­
tions, when compared with other areas of the evaluated municipalities
in different parts of Brazil. This finding was specifically noticeable in the
most developed states of the Brazilian federation, namely Rio de
Janeiro, Sa ~o Paulo, Parana, and Rio Grande do Sul. The precarious
economic situation affects the access to resources, and this diminishes
the possibility of acquiring material goods for subsistence, and also af­
fects the ability to recover after a disaster [31,38,86]. Economic pre­
cariousness can affect the population, in both the response and disaster
recovery phases.
Benali et al. [16] focused on nine middle-income countries between
2000 and 2014 and showed that disasters increased public spending,
raised debt levels, and affected the debt repayment capacity. They also
found that measures to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters should be
taken based on the likelihood of future disasters and the vulnerability of
the population. Thus, to reduce the impacts of future disasters on the
budget deficits of countries, it is necessary to identify the economic
conditions of the vulnerable and at-risk population, since income in­
formation is one of the key factors that indicate the vulnerability of a
population to disaster. This information is a priority in the field of
disaster resilience and risk reduction [80]. The identification of income
inequality between the population living in at-risk areas and the popu­
lation living in other areas in the municipalities may contribute to the
formulation of public policies specifically aimed at improving the eco­
nomic conditions of the vulnerable population.
The study found that 31% of the residents lived in households with
inadequate sanitary sewage, that is, the population in at-risk areas did
not have a sewage network or septic tanks. The situation is direr in the

Table 2
Municipalities with more than 25% of the total population living in at-risk areas classified by groups of inhabitants.
MUNICIPALITIES WITH MORE THAN 25% AT-RISK POPULATION

More than 500.000 inhabitants % 100.000–500.000 inhabitants % Less than 100.000 inhabitants %
Salvador,BA (Northeast region) 45,5% Igarassu,PE (Northeast region) 68% Itaiçaba,CE (Northeast region) 57%
Jaboat~ao dos Guararapes,PE (Northeast region) 29% Ribeir~ ao das Neves,MG (Southeast region) 60,5% Cort^es,PE (Northeast region) 56%
Juiz de Fora,MG (Southeast region) 25% Angra dos Reis,RJ (Southeast region) 39% Jurema,PE (Northeast region) 54,5%
Serra,ES (Southeast region) 32,3% Itati,RS (South region) 51,5%
Ibirit�e,MG (Southeast region) 31% Tr^es Coroas,RS (South region) 51%
Teres� opolis,RJ (Southeast region) 28% Barreiros,PE (Northeast region) 50,5%
Vit�
oria,ES (Southeast region) 26,5% Caratinga,MG (Southeast region) 50%
Tabo~ ao da Serra,SP (Southeast region) 26,4% Ewbank da C^ amara,MG (Southeast region) 49,5%
Blumenau,SC (South region) 25,3% Ilhota,SC (South region) 49%
Nova Lima,MG (Southeast region) 48%

8
R.C. dos Santos Alval�
a et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41 (2019) 101326

Fig. 6. Distribution of at-risk populations per gender, head of household and illiteracy level of the regions in Brazil.

Fig. 7. Distribution of at-risk populations according to the most vulnerable ages (elderly and children).

North Region, where 73% of the residents lived in households with
inadequate sewers, followed by the central western region with 52.5%,
and the Northeast Region with 50%. The values for the South and
Southeast Regions were 25% and 20.4%, respectively.
In the at-risk areas in the municipalities analyzed, water supply was
good overall, with only 11% of the residents living in households
without any water supply from a general grid. On the other hand, in the
North Region, 29% of the residents lived in households that were not
covered by a general grid. About 20% of the residents living in house­
holds in at-risk areas in the North Region did not have a waste collection
mechanism.
These results show that the population in the North Region of Brazil
had the worst exposure condition. They live in households with inade­
quate sanitary sewage and do not have access to a water supply network.
This region also faces the largest degree of hydrological risk in the
country, given that it lies along the large watersheds of the Amazon. This
situation, when associated with flooding events, may increase the extent
of exposure of residents to critical health conditions such as water
contamination, diarrhea, hepatitis, and leptospirosis. In the North Re­
gion, between 2011 and 2014, the municipality of Rio Branco, in Acre,
presented the highest number of leptospirosis cases after flooding
events. This shows the seasonality of the disease [55]. Leptospirosis in

9
R.C. dos Santos Alval�
a et al.
Fig. 8. Percentage of residents with an average household income per capita of up to half the minimum wage, per household location and states of Brazil – 2010.
urban Brazil is often associated with poor sanitation conditions,
including the accumulation of garbage and constant contact with the
sewage system [7,8]. Identifying critical areas for water supply and
sanitation, especially in at-risk areas, can help formulate actions aimed
at reducing exposure to disaster risk and improving the health condi­
tions of the population.
The electrical energy supply showed that this variable is not critical
when compared with the national average for distribution, given that
only 0.30% of the residents live in households without this service.
However, 6.7% of the residents lived in households without electricity
and without a meter, which may indicate irregular access to energy,
which in turn can impact the population during a disaster.
Fig. 9 summarizes the data related to the general conditions of the
residents and their households, as well as the conditions of the house­
holds localized in the at-risk areas of the municipalities analyzed in each
region of Brazil.
The first diagnosis of the population exposed in at-risk areas in Brazil
Fig. 9. Residents exposed per condition of the households.
10
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41 (2019) 101326
obtained from this study can support different strategies to address the
needs of vulnerable communities. One of the biggest challenges in
participatory risk management and disaster response systems is moti­
vating people to participate and become protagonists in EWS [56].
All data presented in this study show the characterization of the
population exposed in at-risk areas at the state level. No information is
presented at the municipality or at-risk area level. However, the data­
base generated enables the extraction of information at a more detailed
level (i.e., for smaller territorial units or the intra-urban scale). It is
possible to select information that is relevant to the development of
more detailed EWS for the risk of floods, flash floods, and/or landslides.
The following section illustrates an example of how data for the mu­
nicipality of Jaragu�
a do Sul, Santa Catarina State, are incorporated into
the monitoring and early warning developed by CEMADEN.
R.C. dos Santos Alval�
a et al.
4.1. Potential application of the data in the monitoring and early warning
at the intra-urban scale
Is possible to identify and characterize the population exposed in the
risk areas from the database generated, in order to include that infor­
mation in the BEWS (e.g. monitoring and early warnings provided by
CEMADEN). The operators of the Center monitor continuously the
disaster risk areas, as well as the hydrometeorological conditions by
identifying critical thresholds of rainfall that trigger landslides, floods,
and flash floods. In case of intermittent rainfall of high intensity asso­
ciated with a forecast of continuity for the next hours, the municipalities
with several risk areas in different locations are prioritized by the op­
erators, regarding the most critical areas in terms of exposure of the at-
risk populations.
For instance, a meteorological hazard that impacts an entire mu­
nicipality, it is necessary to prioritize actions to monitor the most critical
areas, in order to subsidize emergency response actions. In this context,
the efforts made to identify and characterize the exposed at risk popu­
lation living in areas mapped and monitored by CEMADEN allow the
Center to carry out integrated analysis of the risk areas, by monitoring
the current meteorological conditions for the next hours, including the
conditions of the risk areas and information of the exposed.
Therefore, priority areas will not be defined using only the quanti­
tative and critical rainfall thresholds, but will also include the charac­
teristics of the population living in at-risk areas. The addition of this type
of information may contribute to the definition of lower rainfall
thresholds, as well as to the identification of the more critical areas, such
as the ones with more presence of elderly, children and a higher con­
centration of residents in households without sanitation, which is a
Fig. 10. i) Rain gauge observational network of Cemaden; ii) Brazilian meteorological radar network; iii) Mapping of the risk areas of Jaragu�
Detailing of one risk area; v) Polygons of BATER; vi) BATER attributes for risk areas A and B.
11
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41 (2019) 101326
proxy indicator of vulnerability.
As an example, the environmental and sociodemographic data
generated in this study were included in the monitoring and EWS of
Jaragua� do Sul, in the Santa Catarina State (Fig. 10). Each BATER
polygon includes detailed information about the exposed population,
while in the table the risk areas identified as A and B are highlighted.
While the risk area A concentrates the highest estimate of people
exposed, risk area B presents the highest concentration of residents
without a sewage system. This example demonstrates that it is not
enough to know the estimate of exposed population, but it is also
important to know the characteristics of the population, which is crucial
to improve the issuance of warnings and response actions. The devel­
opment of a synthetic index of vulnerability, including complementary
information about at-risk populations, will contribute to advances in
monitoring and improved detailing of the risk areas in early warnings
systems implemented in Brazil. This nationwide activity is currently in
progress.
5. Conclusions
The major findings of this study helped comprehend the at-risk
population conditions, at an intra-urban scale, and the potential appli­
cation of the data in the BEWS. The exploratory analysis of socio­
demographic information for 825 municipalities resulted in the
estimation of 8,266,566 people exposed to the risk of landslides and/or
floods in 27,660 risk areas in Brazil. It was possible to identify specific
vulnerability conditions of at-risk populations. For instance, among
residents exposed to risk in the municipalities evaluated, around 18% of
the at-risk population comprised children and the elderly, both of whom
a do Sul, SC; iv)
R.C. dos Santos Alval�
a et al.
are considered the most vulnerable age groups during disasters. Other
conditions of vulnerability of the population exposed in at-risk areas can
also be identified from the analysis of the database created, such as those
related to households with inadequate sanitation and water supply.
The results can help with effective risk management actions and
disaster response. Preventive actions can focus on different profiles of
the population living in at-risk areas, including campaigns and educa­
tional materials aimed at specific age groups, and simulation exercises in
schools and communities. This kind of information can integrate na­
tional databases on the exposed population and specify risk manage­
ment strategies and disaster response approaches. It could also help
prioritize the evacuation of these subsets of people in a hazard impact
area, especially in places with the highest concentrations of people
exposed.
Contingency plans can also be made more efficiently if age profiles of
the population are included in the decision-making process to move
residents into temporary shelters. In the reconstruction phase, infra­
structure improvement can be undertaken to assist groups with mobility
issues. For example, access ramps with handrails can be constructed for
the elderly, and public policy can be directed toward populations that
are hard hit by a disaster.
Although other countries consider the relevance of including
vulnerability data in EWS, efforts have focused on developing method­
ologies to be implemented at the local level. The scientific literature
does not focus on the elaboration of a vulnerability database at the na­
tional level. Such information can subsidize the issuance of alerts, and
can help indicate priority areas for emergency response.
The methodology developed in this study has the potential to be
replicated and used in the evaluation of other cities and countries with
similar databases. As regards the decadal periodicity of census data, the
database of at-risk population also will be updated, allowing monitoring
the evolution over time of the exposed population in terms of their
exposure and vulnerability to disasters. Finally, since this methodology
costs very less, it can be adopted in other countries.
Acknowledgments
We thank National Council for Scientific and Technological Devel­
opment (CNPq, Brazil) for financial support for the second, and sixth to
eighth authors, and INCT-Climate Change Project Phase 2 (GrantCNPq
465501/2014-1/Public call MCTI/CNPQ/CAPES/FAPESP N� 16/2014).
This paper is a contribution of the Brazilian Research Network on Global
Climate Change FINEP/Rede CLIMA Grant 01.13.0353-00. We would
like to thank Editage for English language editing.
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