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Managing Project Uncertainty

Jamey Taft

College of Integrative Sciences and Arts, Arizona State University

OGL 321: Project Leadership

Professor Bulriss

November 8, 2020
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Managing Project Uncertainty

As a project manager, we are responsible for decision-making, managing people, and

solving problems during uncertainty. We will explore uncertainty in the workplace regarding the

cause, the issues it creates and how to create a solution. Then we will apply our project

knowledge to visualizing the future and making sound decisions. This assignment will help

optimize my simulation experience by providing key insight from project management experts so

I will later be able to apply my knowledge in real time.

Step 1

For the first portion of this assignment, we were asked to read David Cledens Chapter 3

“Problem Solving Strategies for Managing Uncertainty” and Chapter 4 “Knowledge Centric

Strategies.” In chapter 3, Cleden discusses the importance of being able to troubleshoot

uncertainty as if we are doctors trying to diagnose a medical issue through looking at the

symptoms. The same goes for project management, to solve uncertainty, we need to understand

where the issue came from to confront the issue directly from its root. Cleden described in detail

four ways to confront uncertainty, they are: suppress, adapt, detour, and reorient (Cleden, p. 38).

Each of these methods can help solve issues that arise, however as an experienced project

manager we need to dig deeper and use problem-solving as a tool. Referring to the doctor

analogy in the text, it is not just about treating the symptom it is about solving the issue to avoid

reoccurrence. The same goes for project management, digging deep and exposing why

uncertainty surfaced can help reduce the impact it leaves on the overall project.

Cleden suggests doing something considerably normal for humans, and that is to reframe

the uncertainty into a problem that needs to be solved. Problem framing allows us to understand

the magnitude of the threat and gives us a chance to create a solution (Cleden, p.42). Reframing
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the uncertainty into a problem, we can then move on to locating the issue. Cleden said it best:

first we identify the symptoms of the uncertainty, then we look for common themes, and then

troubleshoot for accuracy. Other suggestions made by Cleden from the table 3.2 include:

digging deeper, looking for the root problem, is it Déjà vu, avoiding simplification,

objectification, and testing the issue.

Chapter 3 gives us many angles to identifying uncertainty and creating attainable

solutions step by step. Using a scientific approach such as identifying the controlled and

uncontrolled variables we can move to establish what the constraints are and how the strength of

the relationships correlate with discovering a solution. It is imperative to keep the project in

mind, while it can be a challenge ensuring it is the right move, understanding the value of the

project and assessing the problems is necessary. Lastly, having your focus on the project and

aiming for ideal outcomes can help improve the overall project turnout.

Idealizing outcomes leads us into Chapter 4 which highlights the importance of

visualizing the future state of the project. Chapter 4’s, “Knowledge-Centric Strategies” explores

the value of being able to move forward with project manager thinking, and determining

different areas that will promote the growth and success of the project such as; the resources

needed, potential objective changes, time management, team efficiency, and areas outside of the

project managers control (Cleden, p. 57).

Project knowledge defines what uncertainty means in the realm of project management.

Cleden defines uncertainty as “knowledge gaps that may compromise a project” if not handled

with urgency to discover the missed knowledge. Chapter 4 gives specific tools to help overcome

barriers to knowledge gaps. The first is a forecasting model which are determined by drivers and
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relationships (Cleden, p.58). The forecasting model determines the behavior of the project and

which direction (successful or failure) it is heading towards.

Knowledge maps are another tool that project managers utilize to help identify

uncertainty within projects. The purpose of knowledge maps is to help clarify what is known and

pinpoints areas that are uncertain and need further defining. Utilizing knowledge maps and or a

forecasting map can help ensure the project stays on track. They serve a purpose and provide key

insight to reduce major issues from occurring. They minimize the likelihood of a contingency

happening and help us make better decisions.

Being able to make an effective decision is a skill in the eyes of a project manager.

Decisions are required in every aspect. Cleden mentions that it is important to have each decision

be made by the right person as it can impact the project with the wrong knowledge set. An

example being having an electrician make plumbing decisions. That is not necessary, and it is a

matter of finding the correct resources. Chapter 4 ended on the importance of evidence-based

knowledge and following steps to encourage a good quality decision come forth.

Step 2

For the next portion of this assignment we were instructed to read two different blog

posts and establish a connection between the two and our experience with the simulations this

past week. Step 2 encourages us to explore our interests while staying on the topic of project

leadership. The two blog posts that I chose are PMstudents “Risk Happens” by Mike Clayton and

“What To Do When Your Team Doesn’t Believe The Project Schedule” by Girl’s Guide to PMs

Elizabeth Harrin.

In Risk Happens, Clayton reiterates the importance of being ready to change during a

project. He introduces the term “planning fallacy” which is the belief that your plan is hurricane
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proof. Clayton highlights that every plan is created to shift, and a good plan includes a plan for

dealing with the uncertainties. Something that I gathered from this article was “You may miss

something important in your planning, which you either failed to identify, identified but missed

the significance, or could never reasonably have known it” (PMStudent, 2011). This directly

correlates with our reading and emphasizes the need for utilizing knowledge maps to help find

gaps.

In “What To Do When Your Team Doesn’t Believe The Project Schedule” Harrin gives

insight on what to do when a project schedule is not feasible. This blog post describes what we

learned in the reading in aspects which include locating the right people to make decisions, in her

case she needed to identify appropriate timescales. As a leader, Harrin decided to validate the

concerns of her workers so she would not risk the quality of the project. She included key team

members in the replanning of the project schedule and in return she was able to create a credible

schedule and deliver it to the sponsor.

After reading these blog posts I was able to make connections between the readings and

my experience this week with the simulation. One of the major hurdles this week was the project

schedule change that occurred on week 5 and that greatly impacted the overall morale of the

team. In real life, I can implement what I learned from Harrin which is including the team to

establish deadlines that work for everyone while ensuring the project deadline is met to the

standards of the client. The first blog post reiterated the importance of planning and how we

should not only rely on the project plan itself, over the life span of the project managers need to

be able to make quality decisions using resources that are evidence based. Based on what I have

read and experienced in the simulation, I agree with all their assertions. In my personal
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experience at work, I have needed to evaluate my plan with transportation times and have

encountered issues that needed a new time schedule to accommodate issues that might come up.

The project management experts that I have learned from this module have provided an

abundance of useful information that I can apply to my future career and present-day self. Being

unsure is simply not an excuse to have as a project manager as there are ways to trouble shoot

and frame problems that will occur. For future reference, I will remain flexible and inclusive

with my team when it comes to planning and create decisions based on their expertise.
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Reference(s)

Clayton, M. (2020, November 8). Risks Happen. PMstudent. https://pmstudent.com/risk-

happens/

Cleden, D. (2016). Managing project uncertainty. ProQuest Ebook Central https://ebookcentral-

proquest-com.ezproxy1.lib.asu.edu

Harrin, E. (2020, November 8). What To Do When Your Team Doesn’t Believe The Project

Schedule. A Girls Guide to PM. https://www.girlsguidetopm.com/whats-the-profile-of-a-

good-project-manager/