Machine Learning for Expert Systems in Data

Analysis
Ezekiel T. Ogidan
Department of Software Engineering
Faculty of Engineering
Near East University, Nicosia
Mersin 10 Turkey, North Cyprus
Email: ezekieltijesunimi.ogidan@neu.edu.tr
Kamil Dimililer Yoney Kirsal Ever
Department of Electrical and Electronic Department of Software Engineering
Engineering Faculty of Engineering
Faculty of Engineering Near East University, Nicosia
Near East University, Nicosia Mersin 10 Turkey, North Cyprus
Mersin 10 Turkey, North Cyprus Email:yoneykirsal.ever@neu.edu.tr
Email: kamil.dimililer@neu.edu.tr

Abstract—Imagine a system that automates the job of data
science in such a way that if given sales data of a store nationwide
can analyze the rate of sales of a product relative to its supply and
demand and other necessary variables and is able to decide on the
best places for the company to open new stores and help them to
decide on the best possible ways to distribute their products. Data
Science is an interdisciplinary field that is very much like data
mining and Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD), involving
the analysis of data to make useful inferences and deduction.
However, taking into consideration the information overload of
this age, it has become a pressing need to automate the process of
analyzing this data. At the point of this need is where data science
meets machine learning. Machine learning being a powerful tool
for automation can be merged with data science and analysis to
make for a more effective faster way to analyze data. In this
paper, an application of expert systems for data analysis would
be discussed as a case study.
I. I NTRODUCTION
An Expert System is a system that emulates the deci-
sion making ability of a human expert in a restricted do-
main(Giarratano & Riley, 2002). It can also be seen as an
intelligent computer program that uses knowledge and infer-
ence procedures to solve problems that are difficult enough
to require significant human expertise for their solutions. The
system studies patterns and occurrences in the data and is
able to draw inferences (Feigenbaum, 1988). In some cases,
the system might even explain the logic behind the inference.
In an article titled ”Putting Expert Systems to Work”
in the March 1988 issue of the Harvard business review,
Expert Systems were described as programs that mimic the
the thinking of human experts that would otherwise perform
analysis of a situation or data. The System is equipped with
the functionality to capture large proportions of data to build
a pool or database of knowledge. All of this data is what is
analyzed by the system and patterns are studied to have an
understanding of the data and help in making decisions of
inferences in later situations.
Expert Systems have since been giving a competitive edge
to organizations that have incorporated it into their operation
processes. It offers the advantage of allowing analysis of
978-1-5386-4184-2/18/$31.00
2018
c IEEE
large amounts of data at a fast rate and helping to arrive at
a decision quickly. Also, taking into consideration the fact
that its knowledge pool can be populated with information
from many experts, it offers the services of these many
experts, as opposed to just one expert. In some cases, Expert
systems have even been used to predict future problems.
This shows that Expert systems are a indeed a valuable tool.
This has resulted in Expert Systems being incorporated into
various fields and practices ranging from warfare and space
exploration to business, credit verification, capital budgeting
analysis and even health care.
In this paper, we would discuss the Expert system tech-
nology and split its development methodologies into eleven
different categories and discuss how machine learning factors
in each of the methodologies. We would also be discussing an
application of an expert system that uses artificial intelligence
to provide in-call behavioural guidance to agents and measure
customer perception in real time over the phone calls.
II. E XPERT S YSTEM T ECHNOLOGY
The technology of and Expert System consists primarily of
two components: the knowledge base and the inference engine.
In applications of Expert Systems however, a user interface is
required for interaction between the user and the system.
A. Knowledge Base
Expert Systems are developed with the intention of making
the system have the same level of expertise as a trained
professional in the field for which the system is built. As
a result, the system needs a knowledge base, or database of
all the information and facts that makes an expert abundantly
knowledgeable in their fields. Part of the development process
for the engineer would include deciding on which methods
would be used to acquire this knowledge and represent it in
the system.
An adequate knowledge base that would be needed for the
system to run with high similarities to an expert would include
both factual and heuristic knowledge. The factual knowledge
entails all information and fact that is generally accepted and
agreed upon by the experts in that field, while the heuristic
knowledge entails more flexible or variable information that
is gotten either by experience of irregular or uncommon
situations, personal judgment or even guessing.
B. Inference engine
This is the part where the analysis happens. This involves
all mechanisms employed in generating the conclusion based
on the knowledge stored in the system. There are a number of
approaches or methodologies that are employed by engineers
in the development of an inference engine for an Expert
System. They would be discussed in the next section.
C. User Interface
This simply refers to the mechanisms that the user uses to
interact with the system. This may also include the mecha-
nisms used to modify or update the knowledge base of the
system.
Fig. 1. General Structure of an Expert System
The Explanation subsystem is used by the system to explain
the logic or reasoning behind the inference. This is an optional
part to an Expert System.
III. E XPERT S YSTEM M ETHODOLOGIES
The need for proper representation of knowledge in Expert
Systems is to allow the inference engine to quickly and easily
run operations to analyze the information and give correct and
understandable results. The differences in the methodologies
used creates a distinction between Expert Systems, we would
discuss this approaches now.
A. Rule-based Expert Systems
This is the most used form of knowledge representation.
In rule-based systems, the systems are designed to carry out
analysis by a series of complicated ”if...then” rules that allow
them to solve difficult one-of-kind problems. The Knowledge
is represented in form of these rules.
For example, IF the traffic light is red, THEN stop; IF the
traffic light is green, THEN go. In this example, the system
now has knowledge of how a traffic light works. This structure
relates information on the ”IF” part - also known as the
premise or condition - and relates it to an action or inference
on the ”THEN” part.
A rule might have multiple conditions joined by keywords
like AND (for conjunction) and OR (for disjunction) or both.
Operators such as is, are, is not, and are not can also be used
to assign a value to an object in the condition.
Rules can be used to represent:
1) Relations: IF temperature is greater or equal to 38.0 C;
THEN you have a fever
2) Recommendations: IF you have a fever; THEN see a
Doctor;
3) Directive: IF You go to see a Doctor; AND The Doctor
prescribes medicine for you; THEN take your medicine;
Groups of rules can also be put together to develop a
strategy.
Fig. 2. Structure of a Rule-based Expert System
In some cases, you might have more than one rule with
the same IF part in the knowledge base. These rules with the
same IF part constitute what is know as a conflict set. In these
cases, it is up to the inference engine to determine which rule
to execute. The method used by the inference engine to decide
which of the rules should be executed is known as conflict
resolution.
In some of these cases, the inference engine simply executes
the rule with the highest priority. This is based on the
assumption that the rules have been organized in a certain
order of priority in the knowledge base. This usually works
well in Expert systems with around 100 rules.
In some other cases, the most specific rule is executed.
This means that the rule that addresses a particular condition
specially is executed as opposed to one that addresses the
situation as part of a general group. This is because more
specific rules are expected to process more information than
general rules.
Another approach would be to execute the rule in the knowl-
edge base that makes use of data that has more recently been
entered in the database. This approach would consequently
require that dates of entry for each fact in the database be
represented.
While rule-based systems might be the most popular version
of Expert Systems, they lack the ability to learn from experi-
ence. They cannot automatically update their knowledge base
based on new information and they stick to the rules always.
B. Artificial Neural Network Systems
This is a methodology of Expert Systems that dwells primar-
ily on machine learning. It takes advantage of the mechanisms
of neural networks to simulate the human brain and emulate
its functions. In this paper, we would focus on Expert Systems
built with Neural Networks.
In neural networks, nodes are developed to take input in the
same way that dendrites in biological neurons receive electro-
chemical stimulus. The output of these nodes is also likened
to the signal output of the axon in a biological neuron.
Fig. 3. Biological Neural Network Unit (dendrite)
Fig. 4. Artificial Neural Network Unit (node) showing similarities to its
biological counterpart
Neural Networks learn when data is passed through them.
They take note of patterns and and learn these patterns in
what can be likened to learning by experience. The process
of gathering data to be classified in the learning process is
known as feature extraction. It involves extracting key features
or unique values from an entity to be processed or learned from
in the system. It is usually followed by feature selection, which
is where the necessary features for the application are selected.
This is a very important aspect of machine learning because
a well designed and implemented classifier could be made to
perform poorly if the features are not properly selected.
In feature extract, the curse of dimensionality refers to
a a situation where the number of features or dimensions
taken into consideration for a classification are so much and
cause the network to take more time to train. Dr. Charles
Isbell of the School of Interactive Computing, Georgia Tech
states that ”As the number of features or dimensions grows,
the amount of data we need to generalize accurately grows
exponentially”. The increase in dimensions in which data is to
be represented in causes an exponential increase in the amount
of data represented. As more dimensions are added, you get
to a point where the value or accuracy offered by adding these
new dimensions is no longer worth the computational and time
cost of training the system.
Fig. 5. The exponential increase in data for each new dimension or feature
added
C. Fuzzy Expert Systems
Fuzzy logic refers to a form of logic of half truths, where
truth values can range between 0 and 1 so as to handle
situations where the value is neither completely true nor
completely false. In this approach, the system is allowed to
be flexible and to give answers that are not exact. This is
born out of the ideology that real life problems are not always
straightforward with simple true or false answers. It essentially
employs creative decision making processes.
Fig. 6. Basic Structure of a Fuzzy Expert System
In fuzzy Expert Systems, like in neural networks, the
necessary information for the knowledge base is extracted
from the training data set and the knowledge base is developed
and represented in the form IF-THEN rules. The knowledge
base in this case would be in the form of a fuzzy neural
network. A fuzzy neural network is simply a system that
uses the estimation or approximation functionality of a neural
network to obtain the parameters of a fuzzy system.
Fig. 7. A Fuzzy Neural System Showing the Extraction of Fuzzy IF-THEN
Rules
Fuzzy Inference Process refers to all the processes used to
map the input of the system to the output which is a final
decision made based on the mapping or inference. Below is a
2 input, 3 rules, and 1 output rule system used to determine
how much should be given as a tip to a waiter.
Fig. 8. A Fuzzy Rule System
Within the fuzzy inference process, we have to first select
propositions in the conditions part, or IF part of the IF-THEN
rules. We then apply truth values to the extracted rules. For
each of these rules, we also assign a level of importance to
the conditions to define the extent to which their outcomes
affect the final decision. These could be values such as Very
Important or Moderately Important.
Some other forms of Expert Systems classified by their
methodologies or approaches include Object Oriented method-
ology, Case-based reasoning, Modeling, System Architecture,
Intelligent agents, Ontology and Database methodology.
IV. E XPERT S YSTEMS WITH N EURAL N ETWORKS
One of the major applications of Neural Networks has been
pattern recognition. The network is able to learn patterns in
large amounts of data and associate this data to an inference
or conclusion. This is of course similar to the general problem
solved by Expert Systems, where the Expert System studies
data and creates a knowledge base with which it makes
inferences of decisions. The neural network approach also has
the added advantage of allowing the knowledge base to be
adjusted and updated based on comparison between the output
inferred and the expected output
In an application where data on population growth is en-
tered, the system would be able to observe the birth and death
rates over a specific time and make a conclusion on whether
there is a population increase or decrease. With a set of IF-
THEN rules, the system would also be able to suggest ways to
stabilize the population growth rate based on the conclusions
derived.
In the development of a Expert Systems using neural
networks, we need to first identify the problem and define
it properly, so we can identify the necessary attributes or
features needed to solve the problem and avoid the curse
of dimensionality. Next, the values for these features are
identified or obtained either by interviews, surveys or already
existing databases. This is what forms our training data set.
Possible outputs would also be identified. the neural network
is trained using this data set, and the network consequently
develops a knowledge base.
V. C OGITO AS A CASE STUDY
Cogito is a system developed by cogito corporation that
performs in-call voice analysis and delivers real-time guidance
to agents and insight to managers. It leverages the functionality
of Artificial Neural Networks for behavioural analytics.
The system is based on research by behavioural analysts
between 1999-2007 at the Human Dynamics lab at MIT. The
researchers were able to prove that in human communication,
there are social signals passed between the people communi-
cating. They were also able to prove that these signals could
be detected by computers and used to draw inferences on
human behaviour. In 2007, the Cogito corporation was created
to bring this findings to the market.
From 2007 to 2011, Cogito created an artificial intelligence
platform and ran tests with behavioural models to interpret
human communication and detect psychological states. This
research was funded by DARPA (Defense Advanced Research
Projects Agency) and a number of other corporations.
From 2012 to 2014, Cogito was deployed within health care
management programs at health and insurance companies and
thousands of interactions were analyzed, generating millions
of data points. this helped to increase the effectiveness of the
behavioural models used with Cogito.
Since 2015, Cogito has been able to give in-call behavioral
guidance to agents and a real-time measure of customer per-
ception for every phone conversation. In the time it has been
operational, Cogito corporation has reported 10% reduction in
handle time, 16% increase in first call resolution, 14% increase
in customer satisfaction, 90% increase in customer feedback
and 12% increase in deal close rates.
Cogito’s development process adhers to the development
process highlighted in the previous section. These steps are:
A. Identify the Attributes/features
In the case of Cogito, the attributes that were Identified
and considered necessary for the system to make accurate
conclusions were:
• Energy
• Interruption
• Empathy
• Participation
• Tone
• Pace
B. Identify Values for the Attributes/features
In Cogito, these values were derived during the research and
development period as part of the behavioural models. More
values were also gotten when it was introduced into health
and insurance companies
C. Identify the Outputs
The expected possible outputs were also defined. some
outputs were, agitation, confusion, stress, among others.
With these processes, the network was trained and a knowl-
edge base was formed with which the system now observes
conversations and is able to give the opinion and advice of an
expert behavioural analyst.
VI. D ISCUSSION
Cogito serves as a modern practical example of how Ex-
pert systems that make accurate conclusions effectively can
be developed using neural networks for machine learning.
Another added advantage to using neural networks for Expert
Systems is the fact that it further develops its knowledge base
as it works, unlike in rule-based expert systems, fuzzy expert
systems, among others. In fact, much like a human expert,
a neural network Expert System learns more with practice. It
becomes more of an expert as it works. It adjusts its knowledge
base based on the differences between its output and the
expected output.
VII. C ONCLUSION
There are many methodologies that have been used in the
development of Expert Systems for over three decades now.
While all having their advantages, the approach using neural
networks has proven to be the most effective and efficient way
of developing durable and reliable Expert Systems that would
not become obsolete over time.
In this paper, we have discussed Cogito, a neural network
Expert System as a case study and shown how neural networks
can improve the work that is already done by Expert Systems.
Employing this methodology in Expert Systems for many
fields would further improve efficiency in those fields.
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