BNIS Short

BNIS Short Notes

Notes
JSMR (PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk.)

Analyst: EQUITY RESEARCH

Erlangga Aditya Guntoro
erlangga.aditya@bnisekuritas.co.id 20 August 2021

Onto a More Positive Outlook

BUY
What is new?
Following a positive surprise of its 2Q21 earnings and significant improve- TP: IDR 5,000
ments in Covid-19 situation, we see better traffic sentiment for the remainder
of the year. We upgrade our TP to IDR5,000 on FY21F’s adjusted tariffs and a
more bullish FY22F-FY23F earnings. Maintain BUY. Stock Data (as of 19 August 2021)
Last Price IDR 3,970
Key highlights
52wk Range IDR 3,050–4,990
• 2Q21 Recap - Divestment-driven results
YTD % Change -14.62%
• Expecting a positive traffic outlook ahead
1 Year Total Return 0.51%
• Upgrade TP to IDR5,000 from IDR4,300.
Share Outstanding 7,258 mn
2Q21 Recap – Divestment driven results Market Capitalization IDR 28.81 tn
JSMR’s 2Q21 posted another positive quarterly performance as there were no Floating Rate 30.00%
restrictions implemented during the quarter. The company’s 2Q21 net reve- Previous Recommendation BUY, TP IDR4,300
nue is slightly above our expectations at 55.14%, however, net income Upside 25.94%
(IDR856bn) surpassed our previous projection (IDR762bn) at 112.26% as it was
driven by the higher divestment gain of IDR788bn compared to our projection
of IDR750bn. On a QoQ-basis, despite its 6.04% toll revenue increase, its toll- Shareholders
operating expenses rose considerably by 31.21%, leading to lower gross profit Government of Republic of Indonesia 70.00%
by 13.03% with a 49.7% GPM (1Q21: 59.9%).
Public 30.00%

Positive 4Q21 and beyond traffic indications

We had previously expected a longer Java-Bali restrictions since the daily na- JSMR vs. JCI
tional cases reached more than 50K by mid-July. DKI Jakarta’s significant de-
cline of positive cases from 14,622 (all-time high) in July 12 to only 731 cases
as of August 19 has made traffic sentiment to turn back positive in addition to
the recently fully operational Balikpapan-Samarinda toll road.

Furthermore, we note encouraging July’21 car sales with 7M21 figures grew
by 60.75% YoY, and achieved 80.53% of 7M19 (pre-covid comparison). We
also view that the prospect of essential industries’ return to Work From Office
trials’ will reflect positively towards traffic.

JSMR is set to operate more than 2 new toll roads in 2022-2023 i.e Jakarta-
Cikampek II South (Section III) and JORR2: Cinere-Serpong Section II with many Source: Bloomberg
more sections to operate beyond 2023F, especially the anticipated
Probolinggo-Banyuwangi toll road for 171.50km. This will continue to be its
earnings growth driver and further solidifies its position as the leading toll-
road company in Indonesia.

Upgrade TP to IDR5,000
Due to the encouraging traffic outlook, we increase our revenues estimates for
FY21F and 23F by 3.94%/1.81% which led to earnings estimates to be higher
by 27.58%/8.89% for the same periods, with some minor changes for our
FY22F estimates. Besides traffic growth, we expect revenue/traffic to increase
by 10.19%/5.59%/7.99% in FY21F-23F.

As such, we have upgraded our TP to IDR5,000 based on DCF (7.07% WACC,

3.5% terminal growth) with an implied EV/EBITDA at 14.49x (currently trading
at 13.53x). Risks to our view include further Covid spikes/waves that may trig-
ger additional traffic restrictions.
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 BNIS Short Notes

Charts and Tables

Exhibit 1. 1H21 vs. 1H20

Source: JSMR Company Data, BNIS Research

Exhibit 2. 5-year Price/Earnings (PE) chart Exhibit 3. 5-year EV/EBITDA chart

Source: Bloomberg, constructed by BNIS Research Source: Bloomberg, constructed by BNIS Research

Exhibit 4. 7M19 - 7M21 car sales (units) Exhibit 5. Traffic - actual & projections

Source: Gaikindo Source: JSMR company data, BPJT, BNIS Research

Analyst:
Erlangga Aditya Guntoro
erlangga.aditya@bnisekuritas.co.idid

2
 BNIS Short Notes

Exhibit 6. EBITDA, EBIT and net margins Exhibit 7. Interest coverage, debt ratios

Source: JSMR company data, BNIS Research Source: JSMR, BNIS Research estimates

Exhibit 8. Overall performance margins Exhibit 9. Key assumptions

Source: JSMR, BNIS Research estimates

Source: JSMR company data, BNIS Research

Exhibit 10. Forecast adjustments

Source: BNIS Research

Analyst:
Erlangga Aditya Guntoro
erlangga.aditya@bnisekuritas.co.idid

3
 BNIS Short Notes

Exhibit 11. JSMR weekly toll revenue (including deconsolidated tolls)

Source: JSMR 1H21 Company Presentation

Exhibit 12. Financials & Ratios

Analyst:
Erlangga Aditya Guntoro
erlangga.aditya@bnisekuritas.co.idid

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 BNIS Short Notes

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Group, including any other member of the BNI Group from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completenes s of the information contained
herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

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