FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America & Caribbean - March 2014

FOCUSECONOMICS
CONSENSUS FORECAST
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
Contents
Summary...........................................................3
Calendar..........................................................13
Costa Rica.......................................................14
Dominican Rep...............................................20
Guatemala.......................................................26
Panama............................................................32
Other Countries..............................................38
Belize..........................................................38
El Salvador.................................................41
Haiti.............................................................44
Honduras....................................................47
Jamaica......................................................50
Nicaragua...................................................53
Puerto Rico.................................................56
Trinidad and T. ...........................................59
Notes...............................................................62
March 2014
Publication date: 18 March 2014
Information available: up to and including 17 March 2014
Forecasts collected: 10 March - 14 March 2014
Next edition: 15 April 2014
. .
Arne Pohlman Armando Ciccarelli Ricard Torné Carl Kelly Teresa Kersting
Chief Economist Head of Research Senior Economist Economist Economist
Miriam C. Dowd Ricardo Aceves Dirina Mançellari Enrique Jorge Olga Coscodan
Editor Senior Economist Economist Economist Economist
© FocusEconomics 2014 Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, Spain

ISSN 2013-648X Phone: +34 932 651 040
Fax: +34 932 650 804
FOCUSECONOMICS info@focus-economics.com
Economic Forecasts from the World’s Leading Economists www.focus-economics.com
FOCUSECONOMICS Summary March 2014
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Central America and Caribbean

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual variation in %
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World 3.1 2.6 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 2.8 2.6 2.9 3.0
United States 1.9 2.8 1.9 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.7 2.1
Euro area 1.6 -0.6 -0.4 1.0 1.4 2.7 2.5 1.4 1.0 1.4
Japan -0.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 -0.3 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.6
China 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.3 5.4 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.2
Latin America 4.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 3.1 7.1 6.1 8.6 10.0 8.5
Brazil 2.7 1.0 2.3 1.8 2.1 6.5 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.7
Mexico 4.0 3.9 1.1 3.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.5
Centam & Caribbean 3.1 3.4 2.9 2.9 3.2 5.3 4.1 3.6 4.0 4.0
Belize 1.9 5.3 2.3 2.6 2.7 3.8 0.8 2.0 2.3 2.8
Costa Rica 4.2 5.2 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.7 4.6 3.7 4.9 4.9
Dominican Republic 4.5 3.9 4.1 3.6 3.7 7.8 3.9 3.9 4.5 4.3
El Salvador 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.1 5.1 0.8 0.8 2.4 2.7
Guatemala 4.2 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.5 6.2 3.5 4.4 4.5 4.4
Haiti 5.5 2.9 4.3 4.5 4.9 8.3 7.6 3.4 5.2 4.9
Honduras 3.8 3.9 2.8 3.0 3.2 5.6 5.4 4.9 5.3 5.4
Nicaragua 5.4 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.4 8.0 6.6 5.7 6.9 6.9
Panama 10.8 10.7 7.7 7.3 6.6 6.3 4.6 3.7 4.1 3.9
Puerto Rico -1.6 0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -0.2 1.8 2.6 0.9 0.9 1.1
Jamaica 1.4 -0.5 0.4 1.1 1.6 6.0 8.0 9.7 8.6 7.9
Trinidad and Tobago -1.6 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.4 5.3 7.2 5.6 4.2 4.5
Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %
9 15
2012 2013 2014 2015
6 10
3 5
0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015
-3 -5
World United States Euro area Japan China Latin Centam & World United States Euro area Japan China Latin Centam &
America Caribbean America Caribbean
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World -4.7 -4.2 -3.4 -2.9 -2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -8.3 -6.7 -4.2 -3.3 -2.7 -2.9 -2.7 -2.4 -2.2 -2.2
Euro area -4.2 -3.7 -3.1 -2.6 -2.3 0.1 1.3 2.3 2.3 2.4
Japan -9.6 -9.8 -10.1 -7.8 -6.6 2.0 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.3
China -1.1 -1.7 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0 1.9 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.1
Latin America -2.2 -2.9 -3.1 -3.6 -3.3 -1.3 -1.8 -2.5 -2.3 -2.2
Brazil -2.6 -2.5 -3.3 -3.8 -3.5 -2.1 -2.4 -3.7 -3.4 -3.1
Mexico -2.4 -2.6 -2.3 -3.4 -3.0 -1.1 -1.2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.9
Centam & Caribbean -2.5 -10.6 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9 -2.9 -2.9 -1.9 -2.3 -2.5
Belize -0.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5 -1.1 -1.8 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3
Costa Rica -4.1 -4.4 -5.2 -5.3 -5.4 -5.3 -5.3 -5.1 -5.2 -5.3
Dominican Republic -2.6 -6.6 -3.8 -3.5 -3.2 -7.9 -6.7 -4.7 -4.3 -4.4
El Salvador -4.0 -3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.6 -4.9 -5.3 -5.4 -5.2 -4.9
Guatemala -2.8 -2.4 -2.1 -2.7 -2.9 -3.3 -2.6 -3.0 -3.1 -3.4
Haiti -3.7 -5.9 -5.0 -6.1 -5.6 -3.8 -4.1 -5.1 -5.1 -5.3
Honduras -2.5 -3.8 -4.8 -4.6 -4.5 -8.5 -9.4 -9.5 -9.1 -8.2
Nicaragua -0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -13.5 -13.3 -13.7 -13.4 -13.2
Panama -2.2 -2.1 -2.9 -2.7 -2.5 -12.2 -9.0 -8.6 -8.1 -7.8
Puerto Rico -33.6 -38.6 -39.1 -40.2 -42.7 8.1 9.0 8.3 6.3 5.5
Jamaica -6.4 -4.1 -0.5 -1.3 -0.7 -13.4 -13.0 -10.9 -9.7 -8.0
Trinidad and Tobago -2.3 -4.3 -2.1 -1.9 -2.1 12.3 4.1 6.4 7.4 6.9
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

0 4
-3 2
-6 0
-9 -2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015

-12 -4
World United Euro area Japan China Latin Centam & United States Euro area Japan China Latin America Centam &
States America Caribbean Caribbean
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |2

Summary
Regional outlook stable
 The outlook for Central America and Caribbean’s growth forecasts
stabilized over the previous month. This month’s result showed
improving prospects for the Dominican Republic and higher
projections for Panama, the region’s fastest-growing economy. The
outlook for the remaining 10 economies surveyed was not changed
over the previous month. On the political front, electoral authorities in
El Salvador declared that Salvador Sanchez Ceren came in just 0.22
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages percentage points ahead of Norman Quijano in the run-off elections
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
that were held on 9 March. As the results were too close to call, a
GDP growth (%) 2.2 3.0 3.0 recount will be necessary to determine the winner. In Costa Rica, a
Inflation (%) 6.5 5.0 3.8
run-off presidential election will be held on 6 April with candidates
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 -5.2 -9.9
Current Account (% of GDP) -2.8 -2.3 -2.2 Luis Guillermo Solis (PAC) and Johnny Araya (PLN) qualifying for
the second round.
 FocusEconomics panelists expect regional GDP to expand 2.9%

in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2015,
Ricardo Aceves
analysts expect regional growth of 3.2%.
Senior Economist
 Analysts expect regional inflation to end 2014 at 4.0%, which is down

0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. Lower forecasts
for El Salvador, Guatemala and Trinidad and Tobago were the main
drivers behind the region’s downward revision. For 2015, the panel
also sees inflation ending the year at 4.0%.
Forecast Changes Over Last Month
Change in 2014 GDP Growth Forecast Change in 2014 Inflation Forecast
Dominican Republic Nicaragua

Panama Puerto Rico
Central America Dominican Republic
Guatemala Costa Rica
Haiti Honduras
Centam & Caribbean Haiti
Costa Rica Belize
Nicaragua Panama
Belize El Salvador
Trinidad and Tobago Central America
Caribbean Jamaica
El Salvador Centam & Caribbean
Jamaica Caribbean
Puerto Rico Trinidad and Tobago
Honduras Guatemala
-0.06 -0.03 0.00 0.03 0.06 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2
Note: Change between March and February 2014 in percentage points. Note: Change between March and February 2014 in percentage points.
Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
. .

Forecasts
Current Developments
2014 2015
The regional growth estimate for 2014 was unchanged over the previous month.
Panelists raised their projections for the Dominican Republic and Panama.
Centam & GDP 2.9 = 3.2 =
Prospects for the remaining economies surveyed remained unchanged over the
Caribbean previous month.
Participants expect regional inflation ending at 4.0% in both 2014 and 2015. Inflation 4.0 ↓ 4.0 ↓
According to the latest data released by the Statistics Institute of Belize, the
economy grew 0.7% in the full year 2013, which was a deterioration compared to
the 4.0% expansion observed in 2012. The expansion was the result of an
GDP 2.6 = 2.7 =
Belize improvement in the fishing, construction, and wholesale and retail distribution
sectors, which more than offset a decline in agriculture, manufacturing and
mining sectors.
In January, inflation rose 1.8% over the same month last year. Inflation 2.3 = 2.8 =
Costa Rica will hold run-off presidential elections on 6 April with candidates Luis
Guillermo Solis from the Citizens’ Action Party (PAC) and Johnny Araya from the
incumbent National Liberation Party (PLN) qualifying for the second round. A
GDP 3.8 = 4.1 =
Costa Rica victory for Solis appears to be guaranteed. In fact, on 5 March, Araya publicly
announced that he would abandon his campaign as survey results clearly
indicated that Solis was in the lead.
Annual headline inflation fell from 3.1% in January to 2.7% in February. Inflation 4.9 = 4.9 ↑
On 5 March, the governor of the Central Bank, Hector Valdez Albizu, met with an
IMF mission in order to analyze the country’s current economic situation and to
evaluate the IMF’s post-monitoring program. Valdez Albizu stated that growth in
2013 was somewhat stronger than previously expected, while inflation closed the
GDP 3.6 ↑ 3.7 =
year below the Bank’s target. The governor vowed that this year he would reduce
Dominican the current account deficit and achieve stronger economic growth. For its part,
Republic the IMF cautioned that the electricity sector continues to represent a strain on the
country’s fiscal position.
Annual headline inflation fell from 3.9% in December to 2.8% in January, which is
the lowest level of inflation that has been recorded since October 2012. At its 30 Inflation 4.5 = 4.3 =
January meeting, the Central Bank maintained its monetary policy rate at 6.25%.
Electoral authorities declared that left-wing candidate Salvador Sanchez Ceren

came in just 0.22 percentage points ahead of conservative opponent Norman
Quijano in the run-off elections that were held on 9 March. Given that the results
were too close to declare a clear winner, a recount will be necessary. On the GDP 2.0 = 2.1 =
El Salvador economic front, economic activity rose 1.5% over the same month the previous
year in December. The expansion was slightly down from the 1.6% rise recorded
in November.
In February, annual inflation fell to 0.6% from 0.8% in January. Inflation 2.4 ↓ 2.7 ↑
The economy remained strong at the outset of the year. In January, economic
activity grew 2.9% annually, which was just below the 3.0% expansion recorded
GDP 3.4 = 3.5 ↑
in December. Growth in remittances, however, slowed in February, which, if
Guatemala sustained, could lead to weaker private consumption in the months ahead.
Annual headline inflation fell from 4.1% in January to 3.5% in February, which
marked the lowest level since December 2012. At its 26 February monetary policy Inflation 4.5 ↓ 4.4 ↓
meeting, the Central Bank decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.00%.
.
No date has been set in Haiti’s long-overdue legislative and municipal elections.
The government, parliament and political group representatives have not reached
an agreement on the date despite having been in talks for two months. The GDP 4.5 = 4.9 =
Haiti supervising body, the Transitional College of the Permanent Electoral Council
(CTCEP), has suspended weekly meetings in the absence of the agreement.
In January, annual inflation stabilized at December’s 3.4%. Inflation 5.2 = 4.9 =
Note: Arrows and equal sign denote changes in Consensus Forecast over last month.

Forecasts
Current Developments
2014 2015
On 19 February, the government announced the development of a public-private

partnership program aimed at reducing unemployment among young people. The
plan foresees 25,000 new jobs per year over the next four years. In additional
efforts to invigorate the economy, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock
GDP 3.0 = 3.2 ↓
Honduras unveiled a program on 12 March that would increase livestock capacity in rural
areas in order to foster Honduran exports. In an unrelated note, Moody’s
downgraded the country’s credit rating from B2 to B3, arguing excessive public
deficit prospects for 2014.
Annual inflation edged down from 6.0% in January to 5.7% in February. Inflation 5.3 = 5.4 =
The economy grew 0.6% annually in Q3. The expansion contrasted the 0.1%
contraction observed in the previous quarter and was mainly the result of an
improvement in the agriculture sector, which reached the highest growth rate in
three years. In addition, an improvement was recorded in the manufacturing and
the mining and quarrying sectors. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded GDP 1.1 = 1.6 =
Jamaica 0.8% in the third quarter, which was down from the 1.5% rise observed in the
second quarter. On 12 February, Moody’s improved the country’s outlook from
stable to positive, reflecting the recent economic improvements. Furthermore,
Fitch Ratings changed Jamaica’s credit rating from CCC to B- on 25 February.
In December, annual inflation fell from 10.2% in November to 9.7%. Inflation 8.6 = 7.9 =
GDP increased 4.6% in the full year 2013, which was down from the 5.2%
expansion tallied in 2012. Growth in 2013 was primarily driven by strong
GDP 4.3 = 4.4 =
Nicaragua performance in the services and construction sectors, which helped compensate
for the drag on export revenues, which suffered from low coffee and sugar prices.
Annual inflation inched up from 5.2% in January to 5.3% in February. Inflation 6.9 ↑ 6.9 =
The Panama Canal Authority and the consortium of construction firms in charge
of the Canal expansion project reached an agreement to end their cost overrun
dispute on 27 February. The two parties agreed to contribute USD 100 million
each so that the work could resume immediately. In addition, the deal allows the
GDP 7.3 ↑ 6.6 =
consortium to use a USD 400 million insurance bond as backing so that it can
Panama obtain additional funding. Moreover, the agreement extends the period of time the
consortium has to repay the Canal Authority the USD 784 million payments it had
received. The expected completion date for the project is now late 2015.
Annual inflation stabilized at January’s 3.4% in February, marking the lowest level
Inflation 4.1 = 3.9 =
since June 2010.
The Government Development Bank (GDB) sold USD 3.5 billion in bonds on 11
March. This is the largest debt offering Puerto Rico has ever made. Demand for
the bonds was notably high as investors were enticed by the 8.7% yield. The
proceeds will help to sustain the government for about two years. The
commonwealth has approximately USD 70 billion in outstanding debt, which most GDP -1.0 = -0.2 =
Puerto Rico analysts consider to be unsustainable as the economy struggles to recover from
recent years of recession. The government promised to honor its obligations,
even though all three major credit rating agencies had previously downgraded the
island’s credit rating to junk status.
Annual inflation increased from 0.8% in December to 1.1% in January. Inflation 0.9 = 1.1 ↓
From 24 to 28 February, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar and several

members of her cabinet made the first official visit to China in 30 years. During
the visit, Persad-Bissessar held talks with Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang in
GDP 2.2 = 2.4 =
Trinidad and an effort to foster commercial relations between the two countries. The two
Tobago leaders focused specifically on the topic of energy exports. Currently, overseas oil
and gas sales account for more than half of Trinidad & Tobago’s exports.
In January, consumer prices fell 0.1% over the same month last year (December:
Inflation
+0.4% year-on-year). 4.2 ↓ 4.5 =
Note: Arrows and equal sign denote changes in Consensus Forecast over last month.

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Panama
Centam & Caribbean -0.7 2.4 3.1 3.4 2.9 2.9 3.2 Haiti
Central America -0.2 4.1 5.2 5.1 4.1 4.2 4.2
Nicaragua
Belize 0.0 2.7 1.9 5.3 2.3 2.6 2.7
Central America
Costa Rica -0.7 4.9 4.2 5.2 3.2 3.8 4.1
El Salvador -3.1 1.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.1 Costa Rica
Guatemala 0.5 2.9 4.2 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.5 Dominican Republic
Honduras -2.4 3.7 3.8 3.9 2.8 3.0 3.2 Guatemala
Nicaragua -2.2 3.6 5.4 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.4 Honduras
Panama 3.9 7.5 10.8 10.7 7.7 7.3 6.6 Centam & Caribbean
Caribbean -1.3 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.0
Belize
Dominican Republic 3.5 7.8 4.5 3.9 4.1 3.6 3.7
Trinidad and Tobago
Haiti 3.1 -5.5 5.5 2.9 4.3 4.5 4.9
El Salvador
Jamaica -3.4 -1.4 1.4 -0.5 0.4 1.1 1.6
Puerto Rico -3.8 -3.6 -1.6 0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -0.2 Caribbean
Trinidad and Tobago -4.4 0.2 -1.6 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.4 Jamaica
6 Puerto Rico
-4 0 4 8
Notes and sources

3 Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Data for
Puerto Rico refer to Gross National Product (GNP).
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
2012 2013 2014 2015
-3
Centam & Central Caribbean Puerto Rico Dominican Guatemala
Caribbean America Republic
GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Trinidad and Tobago
Centam & Caribbean 4,106 4,408 4,770 4,973 5,144 5,289 5,546 Puerto Rico
Central America 3,258 3,580 3,980 4,232 4,458 4,622 4,924 Panama
Belize 4,125 4,220 4,374 4,697 4,821 5,001 5,175
Costa Rica
Costa Rica 6,370 8,013 8,961 9,715 10,356 10,204 11,168
El Salvador 3,343 3,443 3,696 3,788 3,858 3,982 4,124 Caribbean
Guatemala 2,702 2,887 3,244 3,337 3,475 3,614 3,783 Dominican Republic
Honduras 1,952 2,078 2,276 2,335 2,369 2,458 2,553 Centam & Caribbean
Nicaragua 1,427 1,452 1,601 1,735 1,800 1,875 1,968 Jamaica
Panama 6,973 7,670 8,723 9,919 10,882 11,888 12,923
Belize
Caribbean 5,399 5,688 6,001 6,127 6,231 6,355 6,547
Central America
Dominican Republic 4,793 5,235 5,572 5,734 5,805 5,950 6,175
Haiti 668.5 671.7 754.2 786.8 840.9 885.6 1,012 El Salvador
Jamaica 4,411 4,817 5,228 5,329 4,954 5,150 5,313 Guatemala
Puerto Rico 17,008 17,278 17,749 18,942 19,140 19,261 19,573 Honduras
Trinidad and Tobago 14,696 15,681 17,822 17,547 18,828 20,051 21,330 Nicaragua
20,000 Haiti
2012 2013 2014 2015 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Notes and sources

15,000
Note: GDP per capita in current USD. Data for Puerto Rico refer to
GNP.
10,000
5,000
0

Consumption, annual variation in % Consumption Growth, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Panama
Centam & Caribbean -0.2 6.5 4.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.0
Belize
Central America -0.7 7.6 6.0 2.1 3.6 4.0 4.0
Central America
Belize 4.0 5.3 4.5 7.5 4.8 5.6 5.6
Costa Rica 2.3 4.5 4.1 3.9 2.6 3.5 3.6 Nicaragua
El Salvador -9.2 2.2 2.0 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.3 Guatemala
Guatemala 1.1 3.9 3.9 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.8 Costa Rica
Honduras 1.2 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 3.1 3.2
Honduras
Nicaragua 0.6 4.5 5.6 5.0 4.3 3.9 3.7
Panama -1.7 25.4 16.6 -2.3 6.4 6.1 5.3 Centam & Caribbean
Caribbean 0.2 5.4 2.5 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 Trinidad and Tobago
Dominican Republic 4.9 7.6 3.8 1.9 1.4 2.3 3.2 El Salvador
Haiti 1.7 13.8 -2.8 -5.2 2.8 - - Dominican Republic
Jamaica -19.0 11.0 13.1 3.4 -0.2 1.2 1.4
Caribbean
Puerto Rico -2.0 0.6 -0.2 2.4 2.0 1.2 0.7
Trinidad and Tobago 7.4 8.8 1.9 7.0 2.2 2.7 3.2 Jamaica
5 Puerto Rico
2012 2013 2014 2015 0 2 4 6 8
4
Notes and sources
Note: Total consumption, real annual variation in %.

3 Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
0
Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Panama
Centam & Caribbean -14.4 3.4 8.6 5.1 3.2 4.2 4.6
Central America -15.4 3.1 12.2 7.6 6.4 6.4 6.0 Nicaragua
Belize -18.8 -21.2 -0.8 4.0 2.1 2.9 3.4 Costa Rica
Costa Rica -11.1 5.5 8.9 7.8 6.9 7.0 6.3 Central America
El Salvador -19.2 2.4 13.8 -1.1 3.3 3.8 5.2
Honduras
Guatemala -13.1 -2.1 6.6 4.2 3.1 3.8 4.0
Honduras -35.4 1.4 16.9 4.2 2.4 4.7 5.1 Trinidad and Tobago
Nicaragua -23.4 0.0 19.3 20.6 7.4 7.2 6.9 Centam & Caribbean
Panama -6.2 11.6 19.9 16.1 13.8 10.9 9.0 Guatemala
Caribbean -11.8 3.4 4.6 1.8 -0.3 1.7 2.8
El Salvador
Dominican Republic -14.8 17.6 -2.7 4.3 -1.7 1.4 2.1
Haiti 3.6 -6.5 9.6 6.2 6.1 - - Belize
Jamaica -23.9 5.2 15.7 -4.8 -1.0 2.5 3.0 Jamaica
Puerto Rico -12.5 -6.4 9.4 1.3 -1.4 0.9 3.0 Caribbean
Trinidad and Tobago -12.0 2.8 2.2 3.7 4.0 4.5 4.8
Dominican Republic
10
Puerto Rico
2012 2013 2014 2015 0 5 10 15
Notes and sources
5 Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %.

-5

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Puerto Rico
Centam & Caribbean 9.5 9.9 9.4 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.1
Jamaica
Central America 5.3 5.1 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4
Belize 13.1 23.3 18.9 14.4 14.1 14.3 15.3 Dominican Republic
Costa Rica 8.4 7.3 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 Belize
El Salvador 7.3 7.1 6.6 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8
Caribbean
Guatemala 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3
Honduras - - - - - - - Centam & Caribbean
Nicaragua 8.2 7.8 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.2 Costa Rica
Panama 6.7 6.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.5
Nicaragua
Caribbean 12.2 13.2 13.1 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.2
Dominican Republic 14.9 14.3 14.6 14.7 15.0 14.7 14.4 El Salvador
Haiti - - - - - - - Trinidad and Tobago
Jamaica 11.4 12.4 12.7 13.7 15.2 15.1 14.9 Central America
Puerto Rico 13.7 16.3 16.2 15.2 15.4 16.2 17.0
Panama
Trinidad and Tobago 5.3 5.9 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3
20
Guatemala
0 5 10 15 20
2012 2013 2014 2015
15 Notes and sources
Note: Unemployment rate, % of active population (for details see

notes in country).
10
0
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nicaragua
Centam & Caribbean -2.9 -2.6 -2.5 -10.6 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9
Belize
Central America -3.3 -3.5 -3.0 -3.0 -3.4 -3.5 -3.5
Belize -2.8 -1.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5 Jamaica
Costa Rica -3.4 -5.1 -4.1 -4.4 -5.2 -5.3 -5.4 Trinidad and Tobago
El Salvador -5.5 -4.4 -4.0 -3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.6 Guatemala
Guatemala -3.1 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -2.1 -2.7 -2.9 Panama
Honduras -4.3 -2.7 -2.5 -3.8 -4.8 -4.6 -4.5
El Salvador
Nicaragua -3.2 -1.8 -0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9
Central America
Panama -1.0 -1.9 -2.2 -2.1 -2.9 -2.7 -2.5
Caribbean -2.5 -1.7 -1.9 -18.9 -17.3 -17.3 -17.6 Dominican Republic
Dominican Republic -3.5 -2.5 -2.6 -6.6 -3.8 -3.5 -3.2 Honduras
Haiti -4.6 2.4 -3.7 -5.9 -5.0 -6.1 -5.6 Costa Rica
Jamaica -11.1 -6.3 -6.4 -4.1 -0.5 -1.3 -0.7 Haiti
Puerto Rico -27.3 -30.9 -33.6 -38.6 -39.1 -40.2 -42.7
Centam & Caribbean
Trinidad and Tobago -2.3 -3.0 -2.3 -4.3 -2.1 -1.9 -2.1
Caribbean
0 Puerto Rico
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
Notes and sources
-20 Note: Central government balance as % of GDP. Data for Costa Rica
and Honduras refer to non-financial public sector balance. Data for
Haiti refer to financial operations of central government. Data for
Puerto Rico refer to Balance of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico.
Sources: National statistical institutes and finance ministries.
-40
2012 2013 2014 2015
-60

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jamaica
Centam & Caribbean 2.7 5.5 5.3 4.1 3.6 4.0 4.0 Nicaragua
Central America 1.5 5.2 5.7 4.0 3.7 4.4 4.4
Honduras
Belize -0.4 0.0 3.8 0.8 2.0 2.3 2.8
Costa Rica 4.0 5.8 4.7 4.6 3.7 4.9 4.9 Haiti
El Salvador -0.2 2.1 5.1 0.8 0.8 2.4 2.7 Costa Rica
Guatemala -0.3 5.4 6.2 3.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 Dominican Republic
Honduras 3.0 6.5 5.6 5.4 4.9 5.3 5.4 Guatemala
Nicaragua 0.9 9.2 8.0 6.6 5.7 6.9 6.9 Central America
Panama 1.9 4.9 6.3 4.6 3.7 4.1 3.9
Trinidad and Tobago
Caribbean 3.8 5.8 4.9 4.3 3.4 3.4 3.5
Panama
Haiti -4.7 4.7 8.3 7.6 3.4 5.2 4.9 Centam & Caribbean
Jamaica 10.2 11.8 6.0 8.0 9.7 8.6 7.9 Caribbean
Puerto Rico 2.8 2.0 1.8 2.6 0.9 0.9 1.1 El Salvador
Trinidad and Tobago 1.3 13.4 5.3 7.2 5.6 4.2 4.5 Belize
6 Puerto Rico
2012 2013 2014 2015
0 3 6 9
Notes and sources

4 Note: End-of-year variation of consumer price index in %. Data for
Puerto Rico refer to average-of-period variation of consumer price
index in %.
0
Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Honduras
Central America 7.9 7.3 7.3 7.8 7.2 7.1 7.4 Belize
Belize 14.0 13.8 13.0 12.0 11.7 11.6 11.2 Nicaragua
Costa Rica 8.3 8.0 8.0 9.2 6.5 7.5 8.3 Haiti
El Salvador 3.3 1.8 1.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0
Costa Rica
Guatemala 4.5 4.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.5
Central America
Honduras 18.9 19.0 18.1 19.2 20.3 15.8 16.2
Nicaragua 12.3 9.9 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.5 10.0 Panama
Panama 8.2 7.1 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 Centam & Caribbean
Caribbean 5.6 5.2 5.9 5.0 6.0 5.1 5.1 Jamaica
Dominican Republic
Haiti 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.6 8.0
Jamaica 8.6 4.1 3.3 4.0 6.9 6.3 6.4 Guatemala
Puerto Rico - - - - - - - Caribbean
Trinidad and Tobago 7.3 5.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 2.3 2.3 El Salvador
10 Trinidad and Tobago

2012 2013 2014 2015 0 5 10 15 20
Notes and sources
8 Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %.

Belize: Weighted average lending rate.
Costa Rica: Basic rate.
Dominican Republic: Overnight interest rate.
El Salvador: 60-Day USD average deposit rate.
Guatemala: Policy interest rate.
6 Haiti: Central Bank market rate.
Honduras: Lending rate.
Nicaragua: Average lending rate.
Jamaica: 30-Day deposit rate.
Panama: 1-5 year commercial loan rate.
Trinidad and Tobago: Central Bank repo rate.
4 Sources: National central banks.
Centam & Central Caribbean Dominican Guatemala Costa Rica

Exchange Rates vs. USD, annual variation in % Depreciation versus USD, 2014
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Jamaica
Centam & Caribbean 3.4 -1.8 0.9 2.8 2.2 2.6 1.8
Central America 3.3 -4.4 -0.4 2.0 -0.3 2.4 1.3 Nicaragua
Belize - - - - - - -
Dominican Republic
Costa Rica -1.1 -9.1 0.3 1.4 -2.3 3.4 0.8
El Salvador - - - - - - - Costa Rica
Guatemala 7.6 -3.8 -2.5 1.2 -0.8 1.2 0.6
Honduras 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.8 3.2 2.0 2.6 Caribbean
Nicaragua 5.5 5.0 5.0 3.8 5.3 4.7 4.7 Centam & Caribbean
Panama - - - - - - -
Caribbean 3.6 1.1 2.3 3.8 5.4 2.7 2.4 Central America
Honduras
Haiti 4.5 -4.4 2.6 3.9 3.1 -0.6 -3.2
Jamaica 11.9 -4.2 1.0 7.4 14.7 5.0 5.9 Guatemala
Puerto Rico - - - - - - -
Trinidad and Tobago 1.2 0.8 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 Trinidad and Tobago
10 Haiti
2012 2013 2014 2015 -2 0 2 4 6
Notes and sources

5 Note: Annual variation of national currencies versus USD in %. Belize,
El Salvador, Panama and Puerto Rico are dollarized economies and
are not included in the regional average. Positive numbers mean
currency is losing value against USD. Regional aggregates provided
only as indicative information.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and national central banks.
0
-5
Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Trinidad and Tobago
Centam & Caribbean -0.7 -1.1 -2.9 -2.9 -1.9 -2.3 -2.5
Puerto Rico
Central America -1.6 -4.7 -6.7 -6.1 -6.2 -6.1 -5.9
Belize -5.9 -2.9 -1.1 -1.8 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 Caribbean
Costa Rica -2.0 -3.5 -5.3 -5.3 -5.1 -5.2 -5.3 Belize
El Salvador -1.5 -2.7 -4.9 -5.3 -5.4 -5.2 -4.9 Centam & Caribbean
Guatemala 0.8 -1.4 -3.3 -2.6 -3.0 -3.1 -3.4 Guatemala
Honduras -3.5 -6.0 -8.5 -9.4 -9.5 -9.1 -8.2
Dominican Republic
Nicaragua -9.8 -10.5 -13.5 -13.3 -13.7 -13.4 -13.2
Haiti
Panama -0.7 -10.2 -12.2 -9.0 -8.6 -8.1 -7.8
Caribbean 0.2 2.4 1.0 0.6 2.9 2.1 1.6 Costa Rica
Dominican Republic -5.0 -8.4 -7.9 -6.7 -4.7 -4.3 -4.4 El Salvador
Haiti -3.4 -2.5 -3.8 -4.1 -5.1 -5.1 -5.3 Central America
Jamaica -11.1 -8.7 -13.4 -13.0 -10.9 -9.7 -8.0 Panama
Puerto Rico 4.0 8.1 8.1 9.0 8.3 6.3 5.5
Honduras
Jamaica
12
Nicaragua
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Notes and sources

6
Note: Current account balance as % of GDP.
-6
2012 2013 2014 2015
-12
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean | 10

Exports, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Haiti
Centam & Caribbean -13.3 8.6 14.2 -1.2 4.2 7.5 3.9 Panama
Central America -6.6 15.6 23.2 7.1 2.2 9.6 6.6 Nicaragua
Belize -20.1 22.8 28.2 4.0 4.2 7.6 11.7
Central America
Costa Rica -7.6 7.6 10.2 10.1 1.2 7.5 4.6
Guatemala
El Salvador -16.7 16.4 18.0 0.6 2.8 3.6 8.0
Guatemala -6.4 16.4 23.5 -3.8 10.6 8.0 11.2 Belize
Honduras -22.2 19.0 25.5 10.1 6.0 5.2 3.6 Centam & Caribbean
Nicaragua -6.7 35.7 21.1 17.4 -11.1 9.9 11.2 Costa Rica
Panama 9.3 16.9 33.6 11.5 -1.6 12.4 5.1 Puerto Rico
Caribbean -16.3 5.2 9.4 -6.1 5.5 6.1 2.1
Dominican Republic
Dominican Republic -18.7 23.2 27.5 5.4 8.4 6.8 7.1
Caribbean
Haiti 12.4 1.6 37.1 2.3 13.4 17.8 19.6
Jamaica -46.0 0.9 22.3 -1.5 9.2 5.8 4.3 Jamaica
Puerto Rico -4.9 1.4 5.2 -9.2 5.9 6.9 0.7 Honduras
Trinidad and Tobago -51.1 20.3 18.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 3.3 El Salvador
20 Trinidad and Tobago
0 5 10 15 20
2012 2013 2014 2015
Notes and sources

10 Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports.
-10
Imports, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Panama
Centam & Caribbean -18.7 11.8 19.0 4.4 0.6 5.8 4.7 Belize
Central America -20.4 19.3 23.7 6.5 2.8 9.6 6.5 Central America
Belize -21.3 5.3 18.6 8.1 9.1 9.9 10.1
Costa Rica
Costa Rica -26.0 19.3 19.1 8.6 2.3 9.1 5.5
Guatemala
El Salvador -25.4 14.9 18.4 2.9 5.0 4.5 7.7
Guatemala -20.9 20.8 21.1 1.9 7.6 8.6 9.4 Nicaragua
Honduras -30.2 17.1 20.9 8.1 4.4 5.0 8.7 Haiti
Nicaragua -18.6 20.0 23.8 13.5 -5.1 7.2 5.0 Centam & Caribbean
Panama -4.1 22.1 33.3 7.3 0.0 12.7 4.3 Dominican Republic
Caribbean -17.4 5.7 14.7 2.3 -1.7 1.7 2.5
Honduras
Dominican Republic -23.1 26.0 12.4 2.0 1.0 5.6 5.9
El Salvador
Haiti -3.6 38.3 5.4 -10.9 13.6 7.0 8.6
Jamaica -40.2 3.2 26.6 1.3 -5.7 -4.9 3.2 Caribbean
Puerto Rico -9.5 0.4 9.5 4.3 -3.3 0.8 0.6 Trinidad and Tobago
Trinidad and Tobago -27.5 -6.8 47.4 -1.6 -0.4 1.0 1.8 Puerto Rico
Jamaica
10
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
Notes and sources
5 Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports.

2012 2013 2014 2015
-5

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Trinidad and Tobago
Centam & Caribbean 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.9 Haiti
Central America 4.2 3.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.3
Guatemala
Belize 4.1 4.0 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.2
Costa Rica 4.3 4.1 3.6 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.3 Costa Rica
El Salvador 4.9 4.1 3.0 3.7 3.0 3.2 2.9 Belize
Guatemala 4.1 3.9 3.3 3.5 5.0 4.7 4.3 Central America
Honduras 3.5 3.8 3.0 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.7
Nicaragua
Nicaragua 5.4 5.1 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.4
El Salvador
Panama 2.4 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.2
Caribbean 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 Centam & Caribbean
Dominican Republic 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 Honduras
Haiti 3.4 6.9 7.2 9.3 8.5 8.6 9.6 Caribbean
Jamaica 4.9 5.7 4.1 3.6 1.9 2.4 2.9
Dominican Republic
Puerto Rico - - - - - - -
Trinidad and Tobago 15.9 17.8 13.1 12.5 11.9 12.2 12.0 Jamaica
6 Panama
0 5 10 15
2012 2013 2014 2015
5 Notes and sources
Note: International reserves as months of imports.

Sources: National central banks.
4
2
External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nicaragua
Central America 31.3 29.3 28.3 29.6 28.6 28.3 28.2 Costa Rica
Belize 75.3 72.0 69.4 63.2 69.0 69.0 60.3
Panama
Costa Rica 27.9 24.9 26.4 32.0 31.2 32.5 31.2
El Salvador 54.7 51.5 52.5 56.7 49.1 49.3 56.6 Central America
Guatemala 13.0 13.4 11.7 12.5 13.1 12.4 11.8
Honduras
Honduras 22.9 23.8 23.7 25.8 27.2 26.9 26.5
Nicaragua 45.1 45.3 42.7 40.9 39.9 39.6 39.0 Dominican Republic
Panama 42.0 37.7 34.4 29.7 29.4 28.4 26.7
Centam & Caribbean
Caribbean 16.0 18.1 17.8 18.1 19.4 19.6 19.6
Dominican Republic 17.6 19.2 20.8 21.8 24.7 24.8 24.5 Caribbean
Haiti 18.2 13.0 8.8 13.4 16.0 17.7 16.5
Jamaica 92.0 107.2 99.5 97.1 107.1 103.8 103.0 Haiti
Puerto Rico - - - - - - - Trinidad and Tobago
Guatemala
45
0 15 30 45
2012 2013 2014 2015
Notes and sources
30 Note: External debt as % of GDP. In Belize, Dominican Republic,

Guatemala, Haiti and Nicaragua data refer to public external debt.
Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance
ministries.
15
0

FOCUSECONOMICS
Economic Release Calendar

Calendar March 2014
Date Country Event

18 March Nicaragua January Merchandise Trade
20 March Honduras February Economic Activity (**)
25 March Panama December & January Economic Activity
27 March Panama Q4 2013 National Accounts (**)
30 March Honduras Q4 2013 National Accounts (**)
30 March Honduras Q4 2013 Balance of Payments (**)
31 March Costa Rica Q4 2013 National Accounts
31 March Dominican Republic Central Bank Meeting (**)
31 March Dominican Republic Q4 2013 National Accounts (**)
31 March El Salvador Q4 2013 National Accounts
31 March Nicaragua Q4 2013 National Accounts
31 March Jamaica Q4 2013 National Accounts
2 April Costa Rica March Consumer Prices
4 April Nicaragua March Consumer Prices
6 April Guatemala March Consumer Prices (**)
6 April Guatemala March Remittances (**)
6 April Guatemala February Economic Activity (**)
6 April Guatemala Q4 2013 National Accounts (**)
7 April El Salvador March Consumer Prices
9 April El Salvador February Industrial Production
10 April Belize March Consumer Prices (**)
10 April Belize February Merchandise Trade (**)
10 April Costa Rica February Economic Activity
11 April Nicaragua February Economic Activity
11 April Panama March Consumer Prices
(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America | 13

FOCUSECONOMICS Costa Rica March 2014
Costa Rica
Outlook stable
Costa Rica
 Costa Rica will hold run-off presidential elections on 6 April with

candidates Luis Guillermo Solis from the Citizens’ Action Party (PAC)
and Johnny Araya from the incumbent National Liberation Party
(PLN) qualifying for the second round. A victory for Solis appears to
be guaranteed. In fact, on 5 March, Araya publicly announced that
he would abandon his campaign as survey results clearly indicated
that Solis was in the lead. Solis’ success has been driven by rising
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages inequality and voters’ resentment of the current government that
2010-12 2013-15 2016-18
stems from the corruption scandals that have taken place under
Population (million): 4.6 4.9 5.2 President Laura Chinchilla’s administration. Solis’ victory would
GDP (USD bn): 41.1 51.6 66.9
mark an end to a three-decade era, during which Costa Rican politics
GDP per capita (USD): 8,896 10,576 12,823
GDP growth (%): 4.8 3.7 4.5 was dominated by the PLN and the Social Christian Unity party.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.5 -5.3 -5.3
Inflation (%): 5.0 4.5 4.9
Current Account (% of GDP): -4.7 -5.2 -5.7
 FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 3.8% this
External Debt (% of GDP): 27.7 31.7 29.1 year, which is unchanged from the previous month’s estimate. For
2015, the panel sees growth at 4.1%.
 Annual headline inflation fell from 3.1% in January to 2.7% in

February. Panelists see inflation ending both 2014 and 2015 at 4.9%.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity decelerates further in January

Teresa Kersting
Economist In January, economic activity increased 3.1% over the same month last year
according to the monthly index of economic activity (IMAE, Indice Mensual de
Actividad Economica). The figure was below the 3.3% expansion recorded in
December. In January, seven of the twelve components of the index registered
improvements, with other business services and construction recording the
largest rates of expansion. Manufacturing, however, decelerated for the fourth
Economic Activity | variation in %
consecutive month thus holding back an overall improvement in the index.
8.0
Year-on-year
Annual average
Compared to the previous month, economic activity rose 0.01% in seasonally-
6.0
adjusted terms, marking a slightly higher reading than the 0.05% contraction
recorded in December. Meanwhile, annual average growth in economic
4.0
activity remained at December’s 3.5%.
%
2.0 According to the latest revision of the Macroeconomic Programme 2014–2015,

the Central Bank expects the economy to have expanded 3.5% in 2013 and
0.0 projects a 3.8% expansion in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
panelists see growth at 3.8% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of trend-cycle projection. For 2015, participants see economic growth at 4.1%.
economic activity in %.
Source: Costa Rica Central Bank (BCCR).
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases even further in February, reaching

its lowest level in more than 3 years
Consumer prices increased 0.66% over the previous month in February, which
was down from the 0.75% rise tallied in January. According to the Statistics
Institute, more than half of the categories that comprise the index registered
price increases in February. The categories that had the strongest influence

on the print were education and transports as well as food and non-alcoholic
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
beverages.
1.5 7.0
Annual headline inflation fell from 3.1% in January to 2.7% in February,
1.0 6.0 which marked the lowest reading since November 2009. As a result, inflation
remains below the lower band of the Central Bank’s tolerance margin of plus/
0.5 5.0
minus 1.0 percentage points around its 4.0% target. Annual average inflation
% %
edged down from January’s 5.0% to 4.7% in February.
0.0 4.0
-0.5 3.0 The core inflation index, which strips out short-term fluctuations in the
Month-on-month (left scale)
consumer price index, rose 0.59% over the previous month (January: +0.50%
Year-on-year (right scale)
-1.0
Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14
2.0 month-on-month). Annual core inflation increased from January’s 2.1% to
2.5% in February.
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC).
FocusEconomics panelists see inflation ending 2014 at 4.9%, which is
unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2015, the panel sees year-end
inflation also at 4.9%.

Economic Indicators | 2009 - 2018
Annual Data 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real Sector
Population (million) 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3
GDP per capita (USD) 6,370 8,013 8,961 9,715 10,356 10,204 11,168 11,882 12,772 13,815
GDP (USD bn) 29.4 36.6 41.3 45.3 49.4 49.8 55.7 60.6 66.6 73.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -0.7 4.9 4.2 5.2 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.6
Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.3 4.5 4.1 3.9 2.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -11.1 5.5 8.9 7.8 6.9 7.0 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.9
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 8.4 7.3 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -5.1 -4.1 -4.4 -5.2 -5.3 -5.4 -5.3 -5.3 -5.4
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (annual var. of M2 in %) 10.6 13.7 11.1 18.2 11.9 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 4.0 5.8 4.7 4.6 3.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop) 7.8 5.7 4.9 4.5 5.2 3.5 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0
Inflation (Core, annual var. in %, eop) 4.0 3.5 4.5 3.3 2.2 - - - - -
Inflation (PPI, annual var. in %, eop) -1.2 4.5 7.4 3.5 1.6 - - - - -
Basic Rate (in %, eop) 8.25 8.00 8.00 9.20 6.50 7.50 8.33 8.30 8.40 8.40
Exchange Rate (CRC per USD, eop) 555 504 506 513 501 518 522 523 518 512
Exchange Rate (CRC per USD, aop) 571 522 502 503 501 534 520 522 520 515
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -3.5 -5.3 -5.3 -5.1 -5.2 -5.3 -5.6 -5.7 -5.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.6 -1.3 -2.2 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 -2.9 -3.4 -3.8 -4.3
Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.6 -4.2 -5.8 -6.1 -6.4 -7.2 -7.8 -8.2 -8.7 -9.4
Exports (USD bn) 8.8 9.4 10.4 11.5 11.6 12.5 13.0 13.8 14.8 15.8
Imports (USD bn) 11.4 13.6 16.2 17.6 18.0 19.6 20.7 22.0 23.5 25.2
Exports (annual var. in %) -7.6 7.6 10.2 10.1 1.2 7.5 4.6 6.3 6.7 6.9
Imports (annual var. in %) -26.0 19.3 19.1 8.6 2.3 9.1 5.5 6.3 6.8 7.1
International Reserves (USD bn) 4.1 4.6 4.8 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.6 8.2 8.3
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.3 4.1 3.6 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.0
External Debt (USD bn) 8.2 9.1 10.9 14.5 15.4 16.2 17.4 18.8 19.4 19.9
External Debt (% of GDP) 27.9 24.9 26.4 32.0 31.2 32.5 31.2 31.0 29.1 27.0
Quarterly Data Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2
Monthly Data May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14
Economic Activity (IMAE, annual var. in %) 2.8 3.6 4.2 4.7 5.0 4.7 4.0 3.3 3.1 -
Economic Activity (IMAE, mom s.a. var. in %) 0.41 0.59 0.55 0.56 0.48 0.21 0.05 -0.05 0.01 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.02 0.02 0.34 0.05 0.13 -0.76 0.17 0.51 0.75 0.66
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %) 5.3 5.1 5.8 5.3 5.4 4.1 3.4 3.7 3.1 2.7

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance
1 | Real GDP | 2000-2018 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 11-Q4 15 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
10 9 Real GDP Fiscal Balance

Costa Rica
var. in % % of GDP
Latin America
World Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015
Acobo 4.0 4.5 -5.8 -6.0
5 6 Barclays Capital 3.5 3.5 -4.9 -4.7
BNCR 4.0 4.0 -5.1 -5.1
CABI 3.8 - -5.0 -
CONAE 4.0 4.3 -5.2 -5.0
0 3 Deutsche Bank 3.8 4.1 - -
Ecoanálisis 4.0 4.1 -5.7 -6.3
Costa Rica
EIU 4.1 4.2 -5.1 -4.7
Latin America
World Icefi 3.2 4.2 - -
-5 0 INS Valores 4.0 4.0 -6.0 -6.5
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15
JPMorgan 3.8 - - -
Scotiabank 3.9 4.1 -4.8 -4.5
Summary
3 | GDP 2014 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts Minimum 3.2 3.5 -6.0 -6.5
Maximum 4.1 4.5 -4.8 -4.5
6 6
Median 4.0 4.1 -5.1 -5.1
Consensus 3.8 4.1 -5.3 -5.4
History
5 5 30 days ago 3.8 4.1 -5.3 -5.4
60 days ago 3.8 4.1 -5.2 -4.7
90 days ago 3.8 4.4 -5.2 -5.1
Additional Forecasts
4 4 Central Bank (Jan. 2014) 3.8 4.1 - -
Maximum Maximum
IMF (Oct. 2013) 3.8 4.1 - -
Consensus Consensus World Bank (Dec. 2013) 4.3 4.1 - -
Minimum Minimum
3 3
Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
5 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
10 2
Costa Rica Costa Rica
Latin America Latin America
0
8
-2
6
-4
4 -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notes and sources

7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
9 -3 General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All
2014 2015 2014 2015 real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto
Nacional de Estadistica y Censos de Costa Rica) and the Central Bank
8 (BCCR, Banco Central de Costa Rica). See below for details. Forecasts
-4 based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
7
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: INEC.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: INEC.
-5 3 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
6 4 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEC.
6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCCR.
7 Unemployment, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
5 -6
months.
8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2014
and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate
9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2018 | in % 10 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2018 | in % Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate
15 20 CPI Exchange Rate

Costa Rica
variation in % CRC per USD
Latin America Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015
Acobo 4.2 4.5 526 535
10 15 Barclays Capital 5.4 5.0 503 510
BNCR 5.0 5.0 - -
CABI 5.0 - 525 -
CONAE 5.3 5.0 510 515
5 10 Deutsche Bank 5.0 5.0 - -
Ecoanálisis 5.0 4.5 526 -
Costa Rica EIU 5.3 5.2 514 517
Latin America Icefi 4.6 4.4 - -
0 5 INS Valores 4.0 4.2 535 545
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
JPMorgan - - - -
Scotiabank 5.3 5.8 505 510
Summary
11 | Inflation | evolution of forecast 12 | Interest Rate | evolution of fcst Minimum 4.0 4.2 503 510
5.3 9
Maximum 5.4 5.8 535 545
Median 5.0 5.0 519 516
Consensus 4.9 4.9 518 522
8 History
5.1 30 days ago 4.9 4.8 518 521
60 days ago 5.1 5.0 513 509
7 90 days ago 5.2 5.1 515 515
4.9 Central Bank Target 4.0±1.0 4.0±1.0 - -
6 IMF (Oct. 2013) 5.0 5.0 - -
2014 2015 2014 2015
4.7 5
13 | Exchange Rate | CRC per USD 14 | Current Account | % of GDP
600 5
Costa Rica
Latin America
500 0
400 -5
300 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 Notes and sources
General:
15 | CRC per USD | evol. of fcst 16 | Current Account | evol. of fcst Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated.
All monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistical
540 -4.5 Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos de Costa Rica),
the Central Bank (BCCR, Banco Central de Costa Rica) and Thomson
Reuters. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
-4.7 Consensus Forecast.
530
9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
-4.9 Source: INEC.
10 Interest rate, monthly basic rate in % (eop). Source: BCCR.
520
11 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
-5.1 months.
12 Interest rate, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
510 months.
-5.3 13 Exchange rate, CRC per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.
14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCCR.
2014 2015 2014 2015
15 Exchange rate, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
500 -5.5 months.
16 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015
forecasts during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Costa Rica in the Region

Official name: Republic of Costa Rica Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: San Jose (0.4m)
Other cities: Alajuela (0.3m)
Desamparados (0.2m) Costa Rica
6.5% Costa Rica
Area (km2): 51,100 13.1%
Population (million, 2013 est.): 4.8 Other

Other 25.2%
Guatemala
Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 93.9 33.2% 21.1%
Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.3 Puerto
Rico
Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 77.9 18.5%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2006): 5.1

Costa Rica
Language: Spanish Haiti 13.1%
14.1%
Honduras
Measures: Metric system 11.1%
Dominican
Republic
Dominican Guatemala
Time: GMT-6 Republic
14.3%
15.8%
14.0%
Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2012)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 21.2 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 128 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12
100 100
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 47.5
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 10.0 Agriculture Net Exports
80
80
Energy (2010)
60
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 87.0 Manufacturing Investment
60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 187
40
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 9.5
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 8.5 40 Other Industry
Consumption
20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 48.7
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 7.0 20 Private
Services 0 Consumption
0 -20
Transportation (2012)
Airports: 153
Railways (km): 278
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 28,049
Waterways (km): 730 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Caldera, Puerto Limon
Other
4.0%
Political Data Panama
5.1%
Other
13.1%
President: Laura Chinchilla Mexico

U.S.A. 6.6%
Last elections: 7 February 2010 Other
LatAm 38.9%
Next elections: 6 April 2014 22.8%

Exports Imports U.S.A.
Other
Central Bank President: Rodrigo Bolaños Zamora LatAm
49.8%
15.2%
Asia ex-
China
Japan
Other EU- 8.2%
11.1%
Netherlands 27 EU-27
7.5%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 10.5% 7.0%
Agency Rating Outlook

Moody’s: Baa3 Negative
Primary products | share in %
S&P: BB Stable
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Stable
Food Other
Other 11.1%
8.3%
Strengths Weaknesses 12.7%
Mineral
Food Fuels
31.6% 11.0%
• Highly skilled labor force • Small domestic market
• Enthusiastic advocate of • Lack of investment in
Exports Imports
regional free trade transport infrastructure
• Advanced telecommunicatons • Highly dependent on
network imported oil Manufact.
• OECD membership expected • Recurrent border conflict Products
55.8% Manufact.
Products
for 2015 with Nicaragua 69.5%

FOCUSECONOMICS Dominican Republic March 2014
Dominican Rep.
Outlook improves
Dominican Republic
 On 5 March, the governor of the Central Bank, Hector Valdez Albizu,

met with an IMF mission in order to analyze the country’s current
economic situation and to evaluate the IMF’s post-monitoring
program. Valdez Albizu stated that growth in 2013 was somewhat
stronger than previously expected, while inflation closed the year
below the Bank’s target. The governor vowed that this year he would
reduce the current account deficit and achieve stronger economic
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages growth. For its part, the IMF cautioned that the electricity sector
continues to represent a strain on the country’s fiscal position.
2010-12 2013-15 2016-18
Population (million): 10.0 10.4 10.7
GDP (USD bn): 55.2 62.0 74.1  FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy
GDP growth (%): 5.4 3.8 4.6 to expand 3.6% this year. For 2015, the panel sees economic growth
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.9 -3.5 -2.7 at 3.7%.
Public Debt (% of GDP): 31.0 39.1 36.6
Inflation (%): 6.1 4.4 4.1
Current Account (% of GDP): -7.7 -4.5 -3.5  Annual headline inflation fell from 3.9% in December to 2.8% in
External Debt (% of GDP): 20.6 24.6 23.8
January, which is the lowest level of inflation that has been recorded
since October 2012. At its 30 January meeting, the Central Bank
maintained its monetary policy rate at 6.25%. FocusEconomics
panelists expect inflation to close 2014 at 4.5% and at 4.3% in 2015.
REAL SECTOR | GDP records largest expansion since Q4 2010

Ricard Torné
According to preliminary estimates from the Central Bank, GDP rose 7.2%
Senior Economist
over the same period of the previous year in Q4. The increase represented a
significant acceleration over the 5.5% expansion recorded in Q3 and marks
the fastest growth rate since Q4 2010. In the full year 2013, GDP grew 4.1%,
which was slightly above the 3.9% increase tallied in 2012.
The improvement was largely the result of an acceleration in the industry

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % sector, which expanded 11.7% in Q4 (Q3: +5.1% year-on-year). The services
9.0 sector picked-up from a 3.8% increase in Q3 to a 4.8% expansion in Q4.
Conversely, growth in agriculture slowed (Q3: +8.3% yoy; Q4: +7.8% yoy).
6.0 The government’s 2014 budget projects that the economy will grow between
4.5% and 5.0% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants
%
are less optimistic than the government and see the economy growing 3.6% in
3.0
2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2015,
panelists expect economic growth to pick up to 3.7%.
0.0
Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation stable in February
In February, consumer prices rose 0.34% over the previous month. The
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Dominican Republic Central Bank and FocusEconomics Consensus
increase, which was above the 0.23% rise recorded in January, was mainly
Forecast. due to higher prices for housing and for alcoholic beverages and tobacco.
Annual headline inflation stabilized at the previous month’s 2.8% in February,

thereby holding steady at the lowest level since October 2012. Inflation remains
below the Central Bank’s tolerance margin of plus/minus 1.0 percentage
points around its 4.5% target.

Inflation | Consumer Price Index The Central Bank maintained its monetary policy rate at 6.25% at its 28
1.5 8.0 February meeting, which followed a similar decision in January. The Bank’s
Month-on-month (left scale) decision to maintain the rate reflects declining inflation and healthy domestic
1.0 6.0 growth.
% %
0.5 4.0
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to end the
year at 4.5%, which is unchanged over last month’s projection. For 2015,
panelists anticipate that inflation will moderate to 4.3%.
0.0 2.0
-0.5 0.0

Source: Dominican Republic Central Bank.

Annual Data 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 46.8 51.7 55.8 58.1 59.5 61.8 64.8 68.4 73.9 79.9
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -14.8 17.6 -2.7 4.3 -1.7 1.4 2.1 3.3 3.5 3.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 28.5 29.1 30.3 33.5 36.3 39.2 41.8 38.4 36.1 35.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 14.3 10.0 10.2 9.3 10.7 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 5.8 6.2 7.8 3.9 3.9 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.4 6.3 8.5 3.7 4.8 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0
Overnight Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.00 5.00 6.75 5.00 6.25 5.75 5.67 5.41 5.40 5.38
Exchange Rate (DOP per USD, eop) 36.1 37.3 38.7 40.4 42.7 44.3 45.8 46.0 46.3 46.6
Exchange Rate (DOP per USD, aop) 35.9 36.8 38.0 39.2 41.7 43.4 44.6 45.9 46.2 46.5
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 5.5 6.8 8.6 9.1 9.8 10.5 11.3 12.1 13.1 14.3
Imports (USD bn) 12.3 15.5 17.4 17.8 17.9 18.9 20.1 21.4 22.9 24.7
Exports (annual variation in %) -18.7 23.2 27.5 5.4 8.4 6.8 7.1 7.8 8.2 8.7
Imports (annual variation in %) -23.1 26.0 12.4 2.0 1.0 5.6 5.9 6.6 7.2 7.8
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) -0.18 0.04 0.62 0.66 0.49 -0.14 0.06 0.37 0.23 -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 5.0 4.8 5.7 5.3 5.1 4.7 4.1 3.9 2.8 -


Dominican Republic variation in % % of GDP
Dominican Republic
Latin America
Latin America World Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015
10
World
6 Banco León 3.3 3.7 - -
Barclays Capital 2.1 3.1 -4.6 -4.3
CONAE 3.1 3.6 -3.6 -3.4
5 4 EIU 4.2 4.3 -2.8 -2.4
JPMorgan 5.0 - - -
Polinomics 3.8 - -3.5 -
0 2 Scotiabank 3.5 3.8 -2.9 -2.8
Summary
Minimum 2.1 3.1 -4.6 -4.3
-5 0 Maximum 5.0 4.3 -2.8 -2.4
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Median 3.5 3.7 -3.5 -3.1
Consensus 3.6 3.7 -3.5 -3.2
History
3 | GDP 2014 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts 30 days ago 3.5 3.7 -3.6 -3.4
60 days ago 3.5 3.6 -3.6 -3.4
6 6
90 days ago 3.5 4.0 -3.3 -2.3
World Bank (Jan. 2014) 3.9 4.6 - -
5 5
IMF (Oct. 2013) 3.6 4.3 - -
CEPAL (Jan. 2014) 3.0 5.0 - -
4 4
3 3
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum
2 2
20 2
Dominican Republic
Latin America
0
15
-2
-4
10
-6
Dominican Republic
Latin America
5 -8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notes and sources

15 -1 General:
real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRD, Banco Central de
2014 2015
la Republica Dominicana) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus
14 -2 Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCRD.

Source: BCRD.
13 -3 3 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BCRD.
2014 2015 6 Balance of general government as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
12 -4 months.
Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 8 Balance of general government as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and
2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.

9 | Inflation | in % 10 | Interest Rate | in % Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate
50 30 CPI Exchange Rate

Dominican Republic
Dominican Republic
variation in % DOP per USD
Latin America
40
Banco León 4.5 4.0 43.5 43.6
20 Barclays Capital 4.5 4.5 45.1 48.5
30 CONAE 4.5 4.4 - -
EIU 4.1 4.3 44.4 45.6
JPMorgan - - - -
20
10 Polinomics 4.5 - - -
Scotiabank 4.8 4.5 44.3 45.5
10 Summary
Minimum 4.1 4.0 43.5 43.6
0 0 Maximum 4.8 4.5 45.1 48.5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 Median 4.5 4.4 44.4 45.6
Consensus 4.5 4.3 44.3 45.8
History
11 | Inflation | evolution of forecast 12 | Interest Rate | evol. of forecast 30 days ago 4.5 4.3 44.3 45.8
60 days ago 4.5 4.3 44.3 45.9
5.0 6.0
90 days ago 4.7 4.4 43.5 43.8
2014 2015 Additional Forecasts
IMF (Oct. 2013) 4.5 4.0 - -
4.8
Central Bank Target 4.5±1.0 - -
5.5
4.6
5.0
4.4
2014 2015
4.2 4.5
13 | Exchange Rate | DOP per USD 14 | Current Account | % of GDP
50 5
Dominican Republic
Latin America
40
0
30
-5
20
10 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notes and sources
15 | DOP per USD | evolution of fcst 16 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

General:
46 -3 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRD,
2014 2015 Banco Central de la Republica Dominicana) and Thomson Reuters.
2014 2015
Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
45
-4 9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
Source: BCRD.
10 Interest rate, overnight rate in % (eop). Source: BCRD.
44
months.
-5 12 Interest rate, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
43 months.
13 Exchange rate, DOP per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.
14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCRD.
42 -6 months.
Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 16 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015

Fact Sheet
General Data Dominican Republic in the Region

Official name: Dominican Republic Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Santo Domingo (1.0m)
Other cities: Santiago de los
Caballeros (0.7m) Dominican
Dominican
Concepcion de la Vega (0.4m) Republic
14.0% Republic
Area (km2): 48,730 16.1%
Other
31.1% 27.9%
Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 20.9
Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.3 Guatemala
Puerto
20.9%
Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 77.4 Rico
19.3%
Panama
Language: Spanish El Salvador 10.1%
8.7%
Measures: Metric system Haiti Guatemala
Honduras 14.4% Costa Rica
Time: GMT-4 11.0% 12.6% 14.0%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 88.8 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12
100 100
80
80
Energy (2010)
60
60
40
Government
Consumption
20
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 0.1
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 113 20 Private
Services
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 18.7 0 Consumption
0 -20
Airports: 36
Railways (km): 142
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Santo Domingo, Haina Primary markets | share in %
Other
11.2%
Political Data Other
13.1%
President: Danilo Medina Mexico

5.8%
Last elections: 20 May 2012 Haiti U.S.A.
16.8% 39.4%
Next elections: 2016 Exports U.S.A.
Venezuela
7.0% Imports
49.6%
Central Bank President: Hector Valdez Albizu
Other
LatAm Other
7.7% LatAm
Asia ex- 14.8%
Japan
EU-27 China EU-27
6.1% 9.6%
8.5% 10.2%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Moody’s: B1 Stable
S&P: B+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: B Stable
Other
Other 2.0%
Food
Strengths Weaknesses Food
5.7%
14.1%
25.3%
• Membership of DR-CAFTA • Widespread poverty
facilitates access to U.S. market • Large influx of Haitian
• Diversified economic structure immigrants poses integration Exports Mineral
Fuels
Imports
23.7%
• Dynamic tourism sector challenges Manufact.
Products
• Highly dependent on energy 60.2%
Manufact.
x imports Products
69.0%

FOCUSECONOMICS Guatemala March 2014
Guatemala
Outlook stable
Guatemala
 The economy remained strong at the outset of the year. In January,

economic activity grew 2.9% annually, which was just below the 3.0%
expansion recorded in December. Growth in remittances, however,
slowed in February, which, if sustained, could lead to weaker private
consumption in the months ahead.
 FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 3.4% this

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages year, which is unchanged over the previous month’s forecast. For
2015, panelists expect economic growth of 3.5%.
2010-12 2013-15 2016-18
GDP (USD bn): 46.6 57.6 70.2  Annual headline inflation fell from 4.1% in January to 3.5% in
GDP growth (%): 3.4 3.5 3.3 February, which marked the lowest level since December 2012. At its
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.8 -2.6 -2.9 26 February monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank decided to
Inflation (%): 4.6 4.4 4.4
maintain the policy interest rate at 5.00%. Panelists expect inflation
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.5 -3.2 -3.1 to rise to 4.5% by the end of this year, which is down 0.2 percentage
points from last month’s estimate. In 2015, the panel sees inflation
at 4.4%.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity expands at slowest pace in 16

Ricard Torné
months in January
Senior Economist
In January, economic activity expanded 2.9% over the same month last year
according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IMAE, Indice Mensual
de la Actividad Economica). The increase was below the 3.0% rise tallied in
December (previously reported: +3.3% year-on-year) and marked the lowest
increase since September 2012.
Economic Activity | variation in %

As a result, the trend deteriorated, with average annual growth in economic
5.0
activity inching down from 3.5% in December to 3.4% in January.
Year-on-year
Annual average
The Central Bank expects the economy to grow between 3.3% and 3.9%
4.0
in 2014. Consensus Forecast participants see GDP growing 3.4% in 2014,
% which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2015, panelists expect the
economy to expand 3.5%.
3.0
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Robust remittances growth endures in February

2.0
In February, remittances from workers abroad rose 9.3% over the same month
Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
last year, reaching USD 384 million. The increase came in slightly below the
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of trend-cycle 10.1% rise recorded in January.
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.
In the 12 months up to February, remittances amounted to USD 5.2 billion,
which is up from the USD 5.1 billion recorded in the previous month. The print
marked a 7.0% increase over the corresponding period last year (January:
+6.3% year-on-year).

Remittances account for nearly 10.0% of the country’s GDP and are
Remittances | in USD
an important source of income for Guatemalan households. Given their
525 5.5
Monthly remittances in USD million (left scale)
significance to the economy, remittances are one of the key drivers of private
12-m remittances in USD billion (right scale) consumption in the country. The Central Bank expects remittances to grow
475 5.2
around 7.2% this year.
425 4.9 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see total consumption

expanding 3.7% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For
375 4.6 2015, panelists expect total consumption growth to inch up to 3.8%.
325 4.3
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation declines to 14-month low in February
In February, consumer prices rose 0.20% over the previous month, which
Note: Monthly remittances in USD million and 12-month sum of remittances in followed the 0.25% increase recorded in January. The print mainly reflected
USD billion.
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations. that lower prices for transportation were offset by higher prices in most of the
remaining categories.
Annual headline inflation fell from 4.1% in January to 3.5% in February,

which marked the lowest level since December 2012. That said, inflation still
remains anchored within the Central Bank’s tolerance margin of plus/minus
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
1.0 percentage points around its target of 4.0%. Core consumer prices added
0.9 6.0
0.15% in February (January: +0.26% month-on-month), while annual core
inflation declined from 2.4% in January to 2.1% in February, which represented
0.6 5.0
the lowest rate since February 2010.
% %
0.3 4.0 At its 26 February monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank decided to
maintain the policy interest rate at 5.00% following a similar decision in the
0.0 3.0 previous meeting. The Bank justified its decision by citing the gradual global
economic recovery in advanced economies as well as stable inflationary
-0.3 2.0 pressures.
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation at 4.5% by the
Source: National Statistics Institute.
end of 2014, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
In 2015, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation
to inch down to 4.4%.

Annual Data 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 37.9 41.5 47.8 50.4 53.8 57.4 61.5 65.6 70.2 74.9
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -13.1 -2.1 6.6 4.2 3.1 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0
Industry (annual var. in %) -0.9 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.4
Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 10.0 11.3 10.7 9.8 9.0 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) -0.3 5.4 6.2 3.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.2
Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, eop) 0.9 3.1 5.3 3.4 2.6 - - - - -
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.50 4.50 5.50 5.00 5.00 5.33 5.50 5.58 5.44 5.33
Exchange Rate (GTQ per USD, eop) 8.33 8.02 7.81 7.90 7.84 7.93 7.98 8.08 8.13 8.20
Exchange Rate (GTQ per USD, aop) 8.14 8.06 7.79 7.83 7.86 7.91 7.96 8.03 8.11 8.17
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.8 -1.4 -3.3 -2.6 -3.0 -3.1 -3.4 -3.4 -3.0 -2.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.3 -0.6 -1.6 -1.3 -1.6 -1.8 -2.1 -2.2 -2.1 -2.1
Exports (USD bn) 7.3 8.5 10.5 10.1 11.2 12.1 13.4 14.6 15.7 16.7
Imports (USD bn) 10.6 12.8 15.5 15.8 17.0 18.5 20.2 21.9 23.4 24.9
Exports (annual var. in %) -6.4 16.4 23.5 -3.8 10.6 8.0 11.2 8.9 7.3 6.5
Remittances (USD bn) 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.1 - - - - -
Economic Activity (IMAE, annual var. in %) 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.27 0.62 0.30 0.14 0.29 -0.03 0.45 0.31 0.25 0.20
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 4.3 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.5
Remittances (annual variation in %) 5.6 -3.6 5.6 3.4 15.0 15.5 2.3 9.3 10.1 9.3

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2018 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 11-Q4 15 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance

Guatemala var. in % % of GDP
Latin America
World
Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015
5
ASIES 3.2 3.5 -2.3 -2.7
5 CABI 3.8 - -2.8 -
4 Camara de Comercio 3.5 3.5 -3.0 -3.0
CIEN 3.4 3.4 -3.2 -4.0
3
CONAE 3.4 3.6 -2.8 -2.6
0 Deutsche Bank 3.4 3.5 - -
EIU 3.4 3.6 -2.2 -2.4
Guatemala 2 Icefi 2.9 3.1 - -
Latin America
World
JPMorgan 4.0 - - -
-5 1 Summary
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Minimum 2.9 3.1 -3.2 -4.0
Maximum 4.0 3.6 -2.2 -2.4
Median 3.4 3.5 -2.8 -2.7
3 | GDP 2014 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts Consensus 3.4 3.5 -2.7 -2.9
History
6 6
30 days ago 3.4 3.4 -2.8 -3.1
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus 60 days ago 3.5 3.6 -2.8 -3.1
Minimum Minimum 90 days ago 3.6 3.6 -2.9 -2.9
5 5
Cen. Bank (Jan. 2014) 3.3-3.9 - - -
IMF (Oct. 2013) 3.4 3.5 - -
4 4
World Bank (Jan. 2014) 3.4 3.3 - -
3 3
2 2
5 | Industry | variation in % 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
10 0
5 -1
0 -2
-5 -3
Guatemala Guatemala
-10 -4
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notes and sources

7 | Industry | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
5.0 -2.2 General:

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All real
sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional
-2.4 de Estadistica de Guatemala) and the Central Bank (Banguat, Banco de
4.5 Guatemala). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
Consensus Forecast.
-2.6
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: INE.
4.0
-2.8 Source: INE.
3.5 4 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-3.0 5 Industry, annual variation in %. Source: INE.
2014 2015 6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Banguat.
2014 2015
7 Industry, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
3.0 -3.2 months.
Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2014

9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2018 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 11-Q4 15 | in % Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate
12 11
CPI Exchange Rate
Guatemala variation in % GTQ per USD
9
9 ASIES 4.4 4.5 7.85 7.88
CABI 5.0 - 8.00 -
6 Camara de Comercio - - 7.80 7.80
7 CIEN - - 8.13 8.22
CONAE 4.6 4.6 - -
3
Deutsche Bank 4.5 4.4 - -
5 EIU 4.3 4.8 7.89 8.01
0 Icefi 3.9 3.8 - -
Guatemala
JPMorgan - - - -
Latin America
-3 3 Summary
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Minimum 3.9 3.8 7.80 7.80
Maximum 5.0 4.8 8.13 8.22
Median 4.5 4.5 7.89 7.95
11 | Inflation 2014 | evol. of forecast 12 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst Consensus 4.5 4.4 7.93 7.98
History
7 7
Maximum Maximum 30 days ago 4.7 4.6 7.94 8.02
Consensus Consensus 60 days ago 4.7 4.6 7.96 8.02
Minimum Minimum 90 days ago 4.8 4.7 8.02 8.07
6 6
Central Bank Target 4.0±1.0 4.0±1.0 - -
IMF (Oct. 2013) 4.5 4.4 - -
5 5
4 4
3 3
13 | Exchange Rate | GTQ per USD 14 | Current Account | % of GDP
8.5 4
Guatemala
Latin America
8.3
0
8.1
7.9
-4
7.7
7.5 -8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notes and sources
15 | GTQ per USD | evolution of fcst 16 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

General:
8.1 -3.0 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
2014 2015 (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica de Guatemala) and the Central
Bank (Banguat, Banco de Guatemala). See below for details. Forecasts
based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
8.0 -3.5
Source: INE.
10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
(eop). Source: Banguat.
7.9 -4.0 11 Inflation, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
12 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2014 2015 13 Exchange rate, GTQ per USD (eop). Source: Banguat.
14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: Banguat.
15 Exchange rate, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last
7.8 -4.5 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Guatemala in the Region

Official name: Republic of Guatemala Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Guatemala City (4.1m)
Other cities: Quetzaltenango (0.4m)
Villa Nueva (0.3m)
Guatemala
Area (km2): 108,890 Guatemala 14.0%
20.9%
Population (million, 2013 est.): 15.5
Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 139 Other
31.1%
Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.9 Other Dominican
40.6%
Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 71.7 Republic
16.1%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2004): 30.9 Haiti
14.4%
Language: Spanish, Amerindian
languages El Salvador
Costa Rica
8.7%
Measures: Metric System Dominican 12.6%
Honduras Republic El Salvador
Time: GMT-6 11.0% 14.0% 6.6%
Panama
10.1%
Economic Structure
100 100
Agriculture Net Exports
80
80
Energy (2010)
60
60
40
Government
Consumption
20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 70.8 20 Private
Services 0
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 11.4 Consumption
0 -20
Airports: 291
Railways (km): 332
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Puerto Quetzal
Other
12.0% Other
Political Data 6.9%
Mexico
President: Otto Perez Molina Mexico
5.4%
11.3%
Last elections: 11 September 2011 Honduras

U.S.A.
39.6%
U.S.A.
38.0%
Next elections: 13 September 2015 7.8%
Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Edgar Baltazar Barquin Other
El Salvador LatAm
11.0% 23.3%
Other EU-27 EU-27

LatAm China
6.7% 6.4%
17.5% 7.4% Other Asia
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings ex-Japan
6.7%
Moody’s: Ba1 Stable
S&P: BB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Negative
Other Other
9.4% Food 2.7%
• Membership of DR-CAFTA • Widespread criminal activity

Food Mineral
facilitates access to US market • Deficient infrastructures 42.3% Exports Fuels Imports
19.3%
• Monetary discipline provides • High illiteracy rate Manufact.
economic stability • Weak financial sector Products
40.9%
Manufact.
• Strong tourism and agricultural Products
64.7%
potential Ores &
Metals
. 7.5%

FOCUSECONOMICS Panama March 2014
Panama
Outlook improves
Panama
 The Panama Canal Authority and the consortium of construction

firms in charge of the Canal expansion project reached an agreement
to end their cost overrun dispute on 27 February. The two parties
agreed to contribute USD 100 million each so that the work could
resume immediately. In addition, the deal allows the consortium to
use a USD 400 million insurance bond as backing so that it can obtain
additional funding. Moreover, the agreement extends the period of
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages time the consortium has to repay the Canal Authority the USD 784
2010-12 2013-15 2016-18 million payments it had received. The expected completion date for
Population (million): 3.6 3.8 4.0 the project is now late 2015.
GDP (USD bn): 31.5 45.1 60.0
GDP growth (%): 9.6 7.2 6.0  FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.1 -2.7 -1.1 to expand 7.3% in 2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last
Inflation (%): 5.0 3.9 3.5 month’s projection. For 2015, the panel sees growth of 6.6%.
 Annual inflation stabilized at January’s 3.4% in February, marking the
lowest level since June 2010. The panel sees inflation ending 2014 at
4.1%. For 2015, the panel expects inflation to reach 3.9%.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity reaches 14-month high in November

Carl Kelly
Economist In November, the monthly indicator for economic activity (IMAE, Indice
Mensual de Actividad Economica) expanded 8.6% over the same month of
the previous year, which was above the 8.4% growth registered in October.
The result marked the highest level since September 2012. According to
the National Comptroller’s Office, the monthly reading was mainly driven by
growth in mining and quarrying, as well as in construction and fishing.
Economic Activity | variation in % On a month-on-month basis, economic activity increased 0.85% in seasonally-
12.0 adjusted terms in November, which was slightly below the 0.89% rise observed
Year-on-year Annual average in October. Nonetheless, the trend is pointing upward; annual average growth
in economic activity increased from 7.5% in October to 7.6% in November.
10.0
%
The government expects economic growth to reach 7.0% in 2014 and 6.5%
in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that the
8.0 economy will grow 7.3% in 2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last
month forecast. For 2015, the panel expects GDP to expand 6.6%.
6.0
Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation stabilizes at multi-year low in February
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of trend-cycle In February, consumer prices rose 0.53% over the previous month, which
Source: National Comptroller’s Office and FocusEconomics calculations.
came in above the 0.20% increase recorded in January. According to the
National Comptroller’s Office (Contraloria General de la Republica), the
monthly increase was driven by a large jump in prices for education. Prices
for household items and food and beverages also moved higher.
Annual inflation stabilized at January’s 3.4% in February, which marked the

lowest level since June 2010. However, inflation remains above historically low

Inflation | Consumer Price Index levels. Due to the country’s dollarized economy, authorities lack the freedom
1.5 7.0 to use monetary policy or exchange rate adjustments to reduce inflation.

1.0 6.0 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to reach
% 4.1% by the end of 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For
%
0.5 5.0
2015, the panel sees inflation at 3.9%.
0.0 4.0
-0.5 3.0

Source: National Comptroller’s Office and FocusEconomics calculations.

Annual Data 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 24.2 27.1 31.3 36.3 40.5 45.0 49.7 54.7 59.9 65.4
Total Consumption (annual var. in %) -1.7 25.4 16.6 -2.3 6.4 6.1 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.9
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -6.2 11.6 19.9 16.1 13.8 10.9 9.0 7.3 7.0 6.8
Industry (annual var. in %) 3.1 4.7 11.4 17.8 6.5 8.1 6.4 5.4 5.1 5.0
Money (annual var. of M1 in %) 17.0 18.8 19.1 13.5 - - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, annual var. in %, eop) -6.7 3.9 11.9 4.7 0.2 - - - - -
1-5 Year Commercial Loan Rate (%, eop) 8.16 7.14 6.74 6.69 6.59 6.60 6.60 6.65 6.85 7.95
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 10.8 12.7 16.9 18.9 18.6 20.9 22.0 23.4 25.0 27.0
Imports (USD bn) 14.1 17.2 22.9 24.6 24.6 27.8 28.9 30.0 31.0 32.0
Exports (annual var. in %) 9.3 16.9 33.6 11.5 -1.6 12.4 5.1 6.6 6.8 8.0
Economic Activity (IMAE, annual var. in %) 7.0 6.6 7.1 7.4 8.0 8.4 8.6 - - -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.41 0.34 0.27 0.27 0.07 0.13 0.07 0.27 0.20 0.53
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %) 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.4


Panama
Latin America
var. in % % of GDP
World Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015
10 Banco de Crédito del Perú 6.5 6.2 - -
10 Barclays Capital 9.5 7.5 -2.2 -2.2
BBVA Research 7.0 - -2.7 -
5 EIU 7.5 5.3 -2.8 -2.2
HSBC 6.3 6.5 -3.5 -3.5
5 Icefi 7.9 8.0 - -
0 JPMorgan 6.5 - - -
Panama Panacamara 7.0 6.0 - -
Latin America Polinomics 7.5 - - -
World
-5 0 Scotiabank 7.0 6.5 -2.5 -2.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Summary
Minimum 6.3 5.3 -3.5 -3.5
Maximum 9.5 8.0 -2.2 -2.0
3 | GDP 2014 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts Median 7.0 6.5 -2.7 -2.2
Consensus 7.3 6.6 -2.7 -2.5
10 9
Maximum Maximum History
Consensus Consensus 30 days ago 7.2 6.6 -2.8 -2.6
Minimum 8 Minimum 60 days ago 7.2 6.5 -2.8 -2.6
90 days ago 6.9 6.0 -2.5 -1.7
8
7
Government (Nov. 2013) 7.0 6.5 - -
IMF (Oct. 2013) 6.9 6.6 - -
6 World Bank (Jan. 2014) 7.3 6.9
6
4 4
15 2
0
12
-2
9
-4
6
-6
Panama Panama
3 -8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notes and sources

5.0 -0.5 General:

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All real
2014 2015
sector data are from the National Comptroller’s Office (CGP, Contraloria
-1.0 General de la Republica) and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF,
Ministerio de Economia y Finanzas). See below for details. Forecasts
4.5 based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
-1.5
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CGP.
-2.0 Source: CGP.
4.0 3 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-2.5 5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: MEF.
2014 2015 6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: MEF.
3.5 -3.0 months.
Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2014

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Current Account Balance
9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2018 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 11-Q4 15 | in % Consumer Price Index and Current Account Balance
12 10
CPI Current Account
Panama variation in % % of GDP
9
8 Banco de Crédito del Perú 4.2 4.0 - -
Barclays Capital 5.0 5.0 - -
6 BBVA Research 4.1 - -7.2 -
6 EIU 4.0 3.6 -8.9 -9.0
HSBC 3.5 3.2 -7.7 -7.3
3
Icefi 3.5 3.3 - -
4 JPMorgan - - - -
0 Panacamara 4.5 4.3 - -
Panama
Polinomics 4.1 - - -
Latin America
-3 2 Scotiabank 4.0 4.0 -8.6 -7.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Summary
Minimum 3.5 3.2 -8.9 -9.0
Maximum 5.0 5.0 -7.2 -7.0
11 | Inflation 2014 | evolution of fcst 12 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst Median 4.1 4.0 -8.1 -7.3
Consensus 4.1 3.9 -8.1 -7.8
7 6
Maximum History
Consensus 30 days ago 4.1 3.9 -7.0 -6.6
Minimum
60 days ago 4.1 3.9 -7.0 -6.6
6 5
90 days ago 4.1 4.0 -8.6 -8.0
Government (Nov. 2013) 4.5 4.0 - -
5 4
IMF (Oct. 2013) 4.5 3.9 - -
4 3 Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
3 2
13 | Current Account | % of GDP 14 | Trade Balance | USD billion
5 40
0
20
-5
0
-10
Trade Balance
Panama Imports
Latin America Exports
-15 -20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
15 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 16 | Trade Balance | evol. of fcst Notes and sources
-6 -5
General:
2014 2015 2014 2015 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All
-6 monetary and external sector data are from the National Comptroller’s
Office (CGP, Contraloria General de la Republica). See below for details.
-8 Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
-7
10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
-8 (eop).
-10 11 Inflation, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
12 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-9 13 Current account balance as % of GDP.
14 Trade balance, exports and imports in USD billion.
15 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015
-12 -10 forecasts during the last 18 months.
Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 16 Trade balance in USD billion, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts
during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Panama in the Region

Official name: Republic of Panama Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Ciudad de Panama (1.4 m)
Other cities: Colon (0.2 m)
Area (km2): 75,517 Panama
8.3% Panama
Population (million, 2013 est.): 3.7 10.8%
Population density (per km2, 2012): 49.3

Other
Pop. growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.4 Other
Guatemala
21.1% 27.5%
Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 78.0 34.6% Puerto
Rico
Illiteracy rate (%, 2004): 8.1 18.5%
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system
Haiti
Time: GMT-5 14.1% Costa Rica Dominican
13.1% Republic
Honduras
11.1% Dominican Guatemala 15.8%
Republic 14.3%
14.0%
Economic Structure
100 100
80 80
Energy (2010)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 41 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 6.2 40 Other Industry 40
Consumption
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 17.5 20 20 Private
Services
Consumption
0 0
Airports: 118
Railways (km): 76.0
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Balboa, Colon, Cristobal

14.3%
U.S.A.
19.5% U.S.A.
23.0%
President: Ricardo Martinelli Costa Rica
Last elections: 3 May 2009 6.4% Other
37.4%
Next elections: 4 May 2014 Other Exports Imports
Minister of Economy and Finance: Frank de Lima LatAm
11.2%
Canada
14.1%
EU-27
8.2%
Other Asia
ex-Japan
Asia ex- China 5.2%
Other EU-
Japan 6.2%
27
12.9% Netherlands LatAm
15.9%
5.7%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 20.0%

Moody’s: Baa2 Stable
S&P: BBB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB Stable
Other Other
1.6%
9.9%
Strengths Weaknesses
• Large international banking • Small domestic economy Manufact.

sector • Pronounced socio-economic Products
38.4%
• Ownership of the Canal ensures inequalities Food Exports Imports
54.3%
steady flow of income
• Competitive tax regime
Ores &
Metals Manufact.
5.7% Products
90.1%

Other Countries
FOCUSECONOMICS Belize March 2014
Belize
Outlook stable
Belize
 According to the latest data released by the Statistics Institute of

Belize, the economy grew 0.7% in the full year 2013, which was a
deterioration compared to the 4.0% expansion observed in 2012.
The expansion was the result of an improvement in the fishing,
construction, and wholesale and retail distribution sectors, which
more than offset a decline in agriculture, manufacturing and mining
sectors.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15  FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists see the economy
Population (million): 0.3 0.3 0.4 growing 2.6% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s
GDP (USD bn): 1.3 1.5 1.8
projection. For 2015, the panel expects GDP to grow 2.7%.
GDP growth (%): 1.6 3.3 2.5
 In January, annual inflation rose from 1.6% in December to 1.8%.
Inflation (%): 2.5 1.4 2.0 Panelists expect inflation to reach 2.3% by the end of 2014, which
Current Account (% of GDP): -6.9 -1.9 -2.3 is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2015, the panel sees
inflation edging up to 2.8%.
Dirina Mançellari
Economist
1 | GDP | variation in % 2 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 3 | Inflation | in %
15 5 15
Belize
Latin America
World
10 0 10
5 -5 5
0 -10 0
Belize
Belize
Latin America
Latin America
-5 -15 -5
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
4 | GDP | evolution of forecasts 5 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst 6 | Inflation | evolution of forecasts
3.2 -1.0 3.5

2014 2015
2014 2015
2014 2015
3.0
-1.5 3.0
2.8
-2.0 2.5
2.6
2.4 -2.5 2.0

Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan

Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -1.2 1.5 -2.8 -1.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 3.1 3.9 4.4 -0.4 0.0 3.8 0.8 1.6 2.3 2.8
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.2 2.3 6.4 -1.1 0.9 1.9 1.3 0.5 2.9 2.5
Weighted Average Lending Rate (%, eop) 14.2 14.3 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.0 12.0 11.7 11.6 11.2
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD m) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports (USD bn) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8
Imports (USD bn) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1
Exports (annual var. in %) 31.3 -0.4 12.8 -20.1 22.8 28.2 4.0 4.2 7.6 11.7
Imports (annual var. in %) 10.0 4.9 22.8 -21.3 5.3 18.6 8.1 9.1 9.9 10.1
7 | Public Debt | % of GDP 8 | Current Account | % of GDP
110 10
100 0
90 -10
80 -20
Belize
Latin America
70 -30
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Notes and sources
9 | Trade Balance | USD billion 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst General:

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2015 unless otherwise stated. All data
1.5 -2
are from the Central Bank (CBB, Central Bank of Belize) and Statistical
Trade Balance Institute of Belize (SIB). See below for details. Forecasts based on
Imports 2014 2015 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Exports
1.0 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CBB.
-3 2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: CBB.
Source: SIB.
0.5 4 GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-4 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
0.0 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
months.
7 Public debt, as % of GDP. Source: CBB.
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: CBB.
-0.5 -5 9 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: CBB.
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015

Fact Sheet
General Data Belize in the Region

Official name: Belize Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Belmopan (0.01m)
Other cities: Belize City (0.08m) Belize
0.5%
Belize
0.4%
Area (km2): 22,966
Puerto
Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 13.4 Guatemala
Rico
20.9%
Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 2.0 19.3%
Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 68.2 Other

39.3%
Other
37.5%
Language: English, Spanish, Creole Haiti
Dominican
Republic
Measures: Imperial system 14.4%
16.1%
Time: GMT-6
Dominican
Honduras Republic Costa Rica Guatemala
11.0% 14.0% 12.6% 14.0%
Economic Structure
100 100
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 3.1 Agriculture
80 Net Exports
80
Energy (2010)
60
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 14.0 Manufacturing
60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 12.0 Investment
40
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 0.6 40 Other
20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 3.5 20
Total
Services Consumption
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 0.5 0
0 -20
Airports: 43
Waterways (km): 825
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Belize City, Big Creek Primary markets | share in %

Other 17.2% U.S.A.
22.8%
Prime Minister: Dean Barrow U.S.A.
31.8%
23.5%
Last elections: 7 March 2012

Next elections: February 2017 Exports Mexico
11.5%
Imports
Other EU-
Central Bank President: Glenford Ysaguirre LatAm
10.4%
27
7.1%
Other
Other EU- LatAm
27 13.2% Germany
U.K. 13.1% 14.9%
21.9% Asia ex-
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Japan
12.6%

Moody’s: Caa2 Stable
S&P: B- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: - -
Other
1.2%
Mineral
Strengths Weaknesses Manufact. Fuels
Products 17.4%
20.9%
• Low inflation figures • Small domestic market Other
37.3%
• Political stability • Lack of infrastructure investment Food
46.7% Exports Imports
• Fast-growing tourism industry • Highly indebted
• High illiteracy rate
Agric.
Raw Mat.
Manufact.
31.1%
Products
45.3%

FOCUSECONOMICS El Salvador March 2014
El Salvador
Outlook stable
El Salvador
 Electoral authorities declared that left-wing candidate Salvador

Sanchez Ceren came in just 0.22 percentage points ahead of
conservative opponent Norman Quijano in the run-off elections
that were held on 9 March. Given that the results were too close to
declare a clear winner, a recount will be necessary. On the economic
front, economic activity rose 1.5% over the same month the previous
year in December. The expansion was slightly down from the 1.6%
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages rise recorded in November.
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
Population (million): 6.2 6.3 6.4  FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy
GDP (USD bn): 20.7 22.8 25.4
growing 2.0% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s
GDP growth (%): 0.6 1.8 1.9 estimate. In 2015, the panel expects GDP to expand 2.1%.
Inflation (%): 4.0 2.7 1.6  In February, annual inflation fell to 0.6% from 0.8% in January.
Current Account (% of GDP): -4.9 -4.3 -5.2 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that inflation
will end 2014 at 2.4% and 2015 at 2.7%.
Dirina Mançellari
Economist
10 0 15
El Salvador
El Salvador
Latin America
Latin America
World
10
5 -2
0 -4
0
El Salvador
Latin America
-5 -6 -5
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
3.0 -2.2 3.5
2014 2015
2014 2015
-2.6
2.5 3.0
-3.0
2.0 2.5
-3.4
2014 2015
1.5 -3.8 2.0


Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 18.6 20.1 21.4 20.7 21.4 23.1 23.9 24.5 25.4 26.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.9 3.8 1.3 -3.1 1.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.1
Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.8 5.9 1.7 -9.2 2.2 2.0 1.5 2.1 2.6 3.3
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 12.4 7.7 -5.4 -19.2 2.4 13.8 -1.1 3.3 3.8 5.2
Money (annual var. of M2 in %) 10.5 17.4 -1.2 2.2 0.1 -2.3 1.0 2.2 - -
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 4.9 4.9 5.5 -0.2 2.1 5.1 0.8 0.8 2.4 2.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.4 4.2 5.2 3.3 1.8 1.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.0
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 3.7 4.0 4.6 3.9 4.5 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.3
Imports (USD bn) 7.8 8.8 9.8 7.3 8.4 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.2 12.0
Exports (annual var. in %) 8.6 7.6 15.6 -16.7 16.4 18.0 0.6 2.8 3.6 8.0
7 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 8 | Current Account | % of GDP
10 2
El Salvador
Latin America
9 0
8 -2
7 -4
6 -6
El Salvador
Latin America
5 -8
Notes and sources
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
General:
9 | Trade Balance | USD billion 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst real, monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of El
Salvador (BCR, Banco Central de Reserva de El Salvador) and General
15 -3.5
Statistics Office (Digestyc, Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos).
Trade Balance See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus
Imports 2014 2015 Forecast.
Exports
10
-4.0 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCR.
2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCR.
5 3 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
Source: Digestyc.
-4.5 4 GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
0 5 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2013
-5.0 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
-5 months.
7 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: Digestyc.
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCR.
-10 -5.5 9 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BCR.
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015

Fact Sheet
General Data El Salvador in the Region

Official name: Republic of El Salvador Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: San Salvador (2.3m)
Other cities: Santa Ana (0.3m)
San Miguel (0.3m) El Salvador
El Salvador
8.7%
Area (km2): 21,041 6.6%

Population density (per km2, 2012): 301 Other
31.1%
Other Puerto
31.3% Rico
Guatemala
19.3%
Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 73.7

Language: Spanish
Dominican
Measures: Metric system Honduras Haiti Republic
Costa Rica 16.1%
Time: GMT-6 11.0%
Dominican
14.4%
12.6%
Republic Guatemala
14.0% 14.0%
Economic Structure
100 100
80
80
Energy (2010)
60
60
40
Government
Consumption
20
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): -
Services 0
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 5.9 Consumption
0 -20
Airports: 65
Railways (km): 283
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Acajutla, Puerto Cutuco Primary markets | share in %
Other
Political Data Nicaragua
7.8%
Other
11.1%
6.0%
President: Mauricio Funes Mexico
6.8%
Last elections: 2 February 2014 Guatemala
U.S.A.
37.9%
13.4% U.S.A.
Next elections: 2019 Guatemala
Exports 46.6% 9.7%
Imports
Central Bank President: Carlos G. Acevedo Flores
Honduras
14.3%
Other
Other LatAm EU-27
China 5.5%
LatAm 23.1%
5.9%

Moody’s: Ba3 Stable
S&P: BB- Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB- Negative
Food Other
Other 11.1%
Mineral
8.3%
Food Fuels
31.6% 11.0%
• Dollarization helps contain • Small domestic market
inflationary pressures • Vulnerability to external shocks
• Membership of DR-CAFTA • Low-skilled workforce Exports Imports
facilitates access to foreign
markets
Manufact.
• Strong influx of remittances Products
Manufact.
55.8%
partially
offset trade deficit Products
69.5%

FOCUSECONOMICS Haiti March 2014
Haiti
Outlook stable
Haiti
 No date has been set for Haiti’s long-overdue legislative and

municipal elections. The government, parliament and political group
representatives have not reached an agreement on the date despite
having been in talks for two months. The supervising body, the
Transitional College of the Permanent Electoral Council (CTCEP),
has suspended weekly meetings in the absence of the agreement.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages  FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to grow 4.5% this
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15 year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2015, the
Population (million): 9.8 10.1 10.5 panel expects the economy to increase 4.9%.
GDP (USD bn): 6.3 7.3 9.3
GDP per capita (USD): 654 738 913
GDP growth (%): 2.4 0.9 4.6  In January, annual inflation stabilized at December’s 3.4%. Panelists
expect inflation to close 2014 at 5.2%, which is unchanged from last
Inflation (%): 8.8 6.3 5.3 month’s forecast. For 2015, the panel expects inflation to fall to 4.9%.
Ricardo Aceves
Senior Economist
10 4 40
Haiti
Latin America
30
5
0
20
0
10
-4
-5
Haiti 0
Haiti
Latin America
Latin America
World
-10 -8 -10
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
7 -3 6.0
-4
6 5.5
-5
5 5.0
-6
2014 2015 2014 2015

2014 2015
4 -7 4.5

Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP per capita (USD) 511 623 671 668 672 754 787 841 886 1,012
GDP (USD bn) 4.8 5.9 6.5 6.6 6.6 7.5 7.8 8.4 9.1 10.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.3 3.3 0.8 3.1 -5.5 5.5 2.9 4.3 4.5 4.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 0.2 -2.8 -4.6 2.4 -3.7 -5.9 -5.0 -6.1 -5.6
Money (annual var. of M2 in %) 10.4 4.3 12.3 9.1 20.5 6.4 7.9 - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 12.4 7.9 19.8 -4.7 4.7 8.3 7.6 3.4 5.2 4.9
Market rate (%, eop) 27.0 27.0 17.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.6 8.0
Exchange Rate (HTG per USD, eop) 39.1 36.4 40.0 41.8 39.9 41.0 42.6 43.9 43.6 42.2
Exchange Rate (HTG per USD, aop) 41.4 37.4 38.3 40.7 40.3 40.5 41.9 43.5 43.3 42.9
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3
Imports (USD bn) 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.8 3.0 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.5
Exports (annual var. in %) 13.6 5.4 -6.1 12.4 1.6 37.1 2.3 13.4 17.8 19.6
Imports (annual var. in %) 30.2 10.1 23.7 -3.6 38.3 5.4 -10.9 13.6 7.0 8.6
7 | Exchange Rate | HTG per USD 8 | Current Account | % of GDP
45 5
40
0
35
-5
30
Haiti
Latin America
25 -10
Notes and sources
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
General:
9 | HTG per USD | evolution of fcst 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst are from the National Statistical Institute (IHSI, Institut Hatien de Statistique
et d´Informatique) and the Central Bank (BRH, Banque de la Republique
d´Haiti). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
44 -4.5
Consensus Forecast.
2014 2015
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BRH.
2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BRH.
43 -5.0 3 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
Source: IHSI.
4 GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
42 -5.5 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
months.
7 Exchange rate, HTG per USD (eop). Source: BRH.
2014 2015 8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BRH.
41 -6.0 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Haiti in the Region

Official name: Republic of Haiti Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Port-au-Prince (2.1m)
Other cities: Carrefour (0.4m) Haiti
1.8%
Delmas (0.4m)
Haiti
Area (km2): 27,750 14.3%
Population (million, 2013 est.): 10.3 Puerto

Other Rico
Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 372 30.3% Other 19.4%
Life expectancy (years, 2011 est.): 62.5 Guatemala

Illiteracy rate (%, 2008): 47.1 21.4%
Dominican
Language: Haitian Creole, French Republic
16.5%
Measures: Metric System El Salvador
8.7%
Time: GMT-5 Dominican Costa Rica
Honduras Republic 13.7% Guatemala
11.2% 14.2% 14.9%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 59.4 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12
100% 80%
Agriculture 60%
80% Net Exports
Energy (2010)
40%
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 2.0
60%
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 31.0 Investment
Manufacturing 20%
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 0.2 40%
0%
Total
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 2.1 20% Services
Consumption
-20%
0% -40%
Airports: 14
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Cap-Haitien, Port-au-Prince
Primary markets | share in %

16.4% Other
U.S.A.
22.7%
President: Michel Joseph Martelly 25.3%
Last elections: 20 March 2011

Next elections: March 2015 Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Charles Castel China
6.8%
Other
LatAm
U.S.A. Dominican
8.7%
83.6% Rep.
36.5%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Moody’s: - -
S&P: - - Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: - -
Agric.
Raw Mat.
4.5% Food
Strengths Weaknesses 19.8% Other
25.2%
• UN presence provides relative • Weak central government Manufact.

stability • Infrastructure largely destroyed Products
Exports Imports
34.9%
by Jan. 2010 earthquake
Other
• Prudent economic management • Dependence on foreign aid 60.7% Mineral
in recent years • High illiteracy rate Fuels Manufact.
29.5% Products
25.5%

FOCUSECONOMICS Honduras March 2014
Honduras
Outlook stable
Honduras
 On 19 February, the government announced the development of a

public-private partnership program aimed at reducing unemployment
among young people. The plan foresees 25,000 new jobs per year over
the next four years. In additional efforts to invigorate the economy,
the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock unveiled a program on 12
March that would increase livestock capacity in rural areas in order to
foster Honduran exports. In an unrelated note, Moody’s downgraded
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages the country’s credit rating from B2 to B3, arguing excessive public
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
deficit prospects for 2014.
GDP (USD bn): 13.6 17.4 20.3  FocusEconomics panelists expect that the economy will expand 3.0%
GDP growth (%): 2.6 3.8 3.0 in 2014, which is unchanged over the previous month’s projection.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.5 -3.0 -4.7 For 2015, the panel sees economic growth at 3.2%.
Inflation (%): 7.9 5.5 5.2
External Debt (% of GDP): 24.6 24.4 26.8  Annual inflation edged down from 6.0% in January to 5.7% in
February. Panelists see inflation at 5.3% by the end of 2014, which is
Enrique Jorge
unchanged over the previous month’s estimate. For 2015, the panel
Economist
sees year-end inflation at 5.4%.
10 2 12
Honduras
Latin America
0 10
5
-2 8
-4 6
0
Honduras -6 4
Latin America Honduras
World Latin America
-5 -8 2
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
4.1 -2 6.4
3.7 -3 6.0
3.3 -4 5.6
2014 2015
2014 2015 2014 2015
2.9 -5 5.2

Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 10.9 12.4 13.9 14.6 15.8 17.7 18.5 19.2 20.3 21.5
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 13.4 24.4 6.3 -35.4 1.4 16.9 4.2 2.4 4.7 5.1
Money (annual var. of M3 in %) 23.7 16.7 4.9 0.6 9.8 12.1 7.0 8.5 - -
Lending Rate (%, eop) 16.6 16.5 20.0 18.9 19.0 18.1 19.2 20.3 15.8 16.2
Exchange Rate (HNL per USD, eop) 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.1 20.0 20.6 21.0 21.6
Exchange Rate (HNL per USD, aop) 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.5 20.4 20.8 21.3
External Sector
Current Account (USD bn) -0.4 -1.1 -2.1 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8
Exports (USD bn) 5.3 5.8 6.2 4.8 5.7 7.2 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.2
Imports (USD bn) 7.3 8.9 10.5 7.3 8.5 10.3 11.2 11.7 12.3 13.3
Exports (annual var. in %) 4.5 9.6 7.2 -22.2 19.0 25.5 10.1 6.0 5.2 3.6
Remittances (USD bn) 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 - - -
7 | Exchange Rate | HNL per USD 8 | Current Account | % of GDP
22 5
0
20
-5
18
-10
16
-15
Honduras
Latin America
14 -20
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Notes and sources
9 | HNL per USD | evolution of fcst 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

General:
22.0 -7
are from the Central Bank (BCH, Banco Central de Honduras). Forecasts
2014 2015 based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
21.5 -8 1 GDP, annual variation in %.

2 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.
21.0 -9
5 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts
during the last 18 months.
20.5 -10 months.
7 Exchange rate, HNL per USD (eop).
2014 2015
8 Current account balance as % of GDP.
20.0 -11 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Honduras in the Region

Official name: Republic of Honduras Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Tegucigalpa (1.1m)
Other cities: San Pedro Sula (0.8m)
Honduras
Area (km2): 112,090 5.1%
Honduras
Population (million, 2013 est.): 7.9 11.1%
Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 70.8

Puerto
Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.8 Other
28.6% Rico
Other
Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 70.7 33.2%
18.5%
Guatemala
Illiteracy rate (%, 2001): 20.0 21.1%
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system Dominican
Republic
Time: GMT-6 Honduras
15.8%
11.1%
Haiti Costa Rica
Dominican 14.1% 13.1%
Republic Guatemala
14.0% 14.3%
Economic Structure
100 100
Net Exports Agriculture
80
80
Energy (2010)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 30.0 60
Investment Manufacturing
60
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 6.5 40
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 4.9 Government 40 Other Industry

Consumption
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 7.6

Private 20
0 Services
Consumption
Transportation (2012) -20 0
Airports: 104
Railways (km): 75
Roadways (km): 14,239 Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 465
Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Puerto Castilla, Puerto Cortes

9.1%
Mexico Other
5.6% 3.5%
El Salvador El Salvador
President: Juan Orlando Hernandez 6.6% 5.7%
U.S.A.
Last elections: 24 November 2013 34.5% Guatemala
8.5%
Next elections: 2017 Other
U.S.A.
44.3%
Central Bank President: Maria Elena Mondragon LatAm Exports Imports
20.4%
Other
LatAm
18.8%
Other EU-
Belgium
27
6.8%
Germany 11.0% Asia ex- EU-27
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 11.6% Japan 5.1%
8.5%

S&P: B Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: - -
Mining Agriculture Capital

Strengths Weaknesses 6.1% 16.2% goods
13.8%
Consumer
• Entitled to participate in • Widespread poverty goods
34.5%
programs for poor countries • Elevated crime rate
Manufact.
from international • High illiteracy rate Exports Goods
Fuel and
oil
Imports
20.0%
23.5%
organizations
• Recipient of large amounts of Industrial
57.6%
remittances from abroad .
Intermed.
goods
28.2%

FOCUSECONOMICS Jamaica March 2014
Jamaica
Outlook stable
Jamaica
 The economy grew 0.6% annually in Q3. The expansion contrasted

the 0.1% contraction observed in the previous quarter and was mainly
the result of an improvement in the agriculture sector, which reached
the highest growth rate in three years. In addition, an improvement
was recorded in the manufacturing and the mining and quarrying
sectors. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 0.8% in the
third quarter, which was down from the 1.5% rise observed in the
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages second quarter. On 12 February, Moody’s improved the country’s
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
outlook from stable to positive, reflecting the recent economic
Population (million): 2.7 2.8 2.8 improvements. Furthermore, Fitch Ratings changed Jamaica’s
GDP (USD bn): 12.8 14.1 14.4
credit rating from CCC to B- on 25 February.
GDP growth (%): -0.9 -0.2 1.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -7.5 -5.6 -0.8  FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy
Inflation (%): 13.5 9.0 8.9 growing 1.1%. In 2015, the panel expects GDP to expand 1.6%.
 In December, annual inflation fell from 10.2% in November to 9.7%.
Dirina Mançellari FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that inflation
Economist will end at 8.6% in 2014 and at 7.9% in 2015.
10 0 20
Jamaica
Jamaica
Latin America
Latin America
World
5 -4 15
0 -8 10
Jamaica
Latin America
-5 -12 5
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
2.0 0.0 9.0
2014 2015
1.8 2014 2015
-1.0 8.5
1.6
1.4
-2.0 8.0
1.2
2014 2015
1.0 -3.0 7.5

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan

Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 11.9 12.8 13.7 12.0 13.2 14.4 14.8 13.8 14.4 14.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.9 1.4 -0.8 -3.4 -1.4 1.4 -0.5 0.4 1.1 1.6
Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 6.3 11.4 18.0 -19.0 11.0 13.1 3.4 -0.2 1.2 1.4
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 13.5 0.6 -2.1 -23.9 5.2 15.7 -4.8 -1.0 2.5 3.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 16.6 11.6 4.1 2.9 6.3 6.4 4.0 2.0 - -
30-Day Deposit Rate (%, eop) 12.79 12.56 15.89 19.95 9.26 6.59 6.62 6.45 6.33 6.43
Exchange Rate (JMD per USD, eop) 67.0 71.1 79.5 88.9 85.2 86.1 92.4 106.0 111.4 118.0
Exchange Rate (JMD per USD, aop) 65.5 69.0 72.6 87.6 86.8 85.5 88.4 99.9 26.3 114.7
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 1.9 2.3 2.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9
Imports (USD bn) 5.7 6.9 8.5 5.1 5.2 6.6 6.7 6.3 6.0 6.2
Exports (annual var. in %) 27.2 15.7 8.2 -46.0 0.9 22.3 -1.5 9.2 5.8 4.3
Imports (annual var. in %) 19.2 22.0 22.8 -40.2 3.2 26.6 1.3 -5.7 -4.9 3.2
20 5
Jamaica
0
Latin America
15
-5
-10
10
-15
Jamaica
Latin America
5 -20 Notes and sources
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2015 unless otherwise stated. All real,
9 | Trade Balance | USD billion 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst monetary and external sector data are from the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook and World Bank WDI. See below for
10 -7
details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Trade Balance
Imports 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook.
Exports 2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: IMF World
5 -8 Economic Outlook.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook.
0
-9 5 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2013
-5 months.
-10
7 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: World Bank WDI.
2014 2015 8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: World Bank WDI.
-10
9 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: World Bank
2000 2005 2010 2015
-11 WDI.
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015

Fact Sheet
General Data Jamaica in the Region

Official name: Jamaica Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Kingston (0.9m)
Other cities: New Kingston (0.6m)
Spanish Town (0.1m) Jamaica
Jamaica
3.8%
Area (km2): 10,991 3.8%

Guatemala
Population density (per km2, 2012): 264 Other
20.9% Other Puerto
31.1% Rico
Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 0.2 36.0% 25.9%

Language: English Haiti
14.4%
Measures: Metric system Costa Rica Dominican
Republic
Time: GMT-5 Honduras Dominican
11.6%
14.8%
11.0% Republic Guatemala
14.0% 12.9%
Economic Structure
100 100
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 4.3 Agriculture 80 Net Exports
80
Energy (2010) 60

60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 127 40

20 Government
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 1.1 0
Services
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 9.2 -20 Consumption
0 -40
Airports: 28
Railways (km): -
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Kingston, Montego Bay, Ocho Rios Primary markets | share in %

Other 16.7%
Prime Minister: Portia Simpson Miller 25.6%
U.S.A.
Last elections: 29 December 2011 36.1%
Next elections: 2016 U.S.A.

Exports 49.6%
Venezuela
15.6%
Imports
Central Bank President: Brian Wynter
EU-27
17.4%
Asia ex-
Other Japan
Canada LatAm 8.2%

Moody’s: Caa3 Positive
S&P: B- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: B- Stable
Other
Other 3.2%
0.2% Food
Strengths Weaknesses Food 16.0%
22.1%
• Financial support from • Severe trade deficit

multilateral bodies • Vulnerability to external shocks Manufact.
• Stable democratic framework • Poverty, unemployment, Exports Products Imports
Imports Manufact.
49.6% Products
• Substantial remittances from insecurity and corruption Mineral Mineral 47.9%
Fuels Fuels
the diaspora 19.4% 32.9%
• Satisfactory business Ores &

Metals
environment 8.7%

FOCUSECONOMICS Nicaragua March 2014
Nicaragua
Outlook stable
Nicaragua
 GDP increased 4.6% in the full year 2013, which was down from the
5.2% expansion tallied in 2012. Growth in 2013 was primarily driven
by strong performance in the services and construction sectors,
which helped compensate for the drag on export revenues, which
suffered from low coffee and sugar prices.
 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages to grow 4.3% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
For 2015, the panel expects economic growth to tick up to 4.4%.
GDP (USD bn): 8.0 9.6 11.7  Annual inflation inched up from 5.2% in January to 5.3% in February.
GDP growth (%): 1.9 2.8 4.6 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project an inflation
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.0 -0.8 -0.7 rate of 6.9% in both 2014 and 2015.
Inflation (%): 10.7 6.3 6.9
Carl Kelly
Economist
8 2 20
Nicaragua
Latin America
0
15
4
-2
10
-4
0
5
Nicaragua -6
Latin America Nicaragua
World Latin America
-4 -8 0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
4.4 0.5 8.0

2014 2015 2014 2015
2014 2015
0.0
4.2 7.5
-0.5
4.0 7.0
-1.0
3.8 -1.5 6.5


Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 6.9 7.4 8.3 8.2 8.6 9.6 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.3
Total Investment (annual var. in %) -0.1 17.2 2.3 -23.4 0.0 19.3 20.6 7.4 7.2 6.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -2.5 -3.2 -3.2 -1.8 -0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9
Money (annual var. of M2 in %) 9.0 17.8 8.4 10.4 24.7 9.4 17.1 19.6 - -
Average Lending Rate (%, eop) 11.2 10.9 13.1 12.3 9.9 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.5 10.0
Exchange Rate (NIO per USD, eop) 17.9 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.0 23.8 25.1 26.3 27.5
Exchange Rate (NIO per USD, aop) 17.3 18.4 19.3 20.2 21.4 22.4 23.5 24.5 25.7 26.9
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.4 3.2 3.5
Imports (USD bn) 3.0 3.6 4.3 3.5 4.2 5.2 5.9 5.6 6.9 7.2
Exports (annual var. in %) 11.1 20.0 25.0 -6.7 35.7 21.1 17.4 -11.1 9.9 11.2
Imports (annual var. in %) 15.4 20.0 19.4 -18.6 20.0 23.8 13.5 -5.1 7.2 5.0
7 | Exchange Rate | NIO per USD 8 | Current Account | % of GDP
30 10
Nicaragua
Latin America
25
0
20
-10
15
10 -20
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Notes and sources
9 | NIO per USD | evolution of fcst 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

General:
29
-13
data are from the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN, Banco Central de
2014 2015
2014 2015 Nicaragua). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.

28 -15 2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP.
27 -17 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
months.
7 Exchange rate, NIO per USD (eop).
8 Current account balance as % of GDP.
26 -19 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Nicaragua in the Region

Official name: Republic of Nicaragua Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Managua (1.8 m)
Other cities: Leon (0.2 m) Nicaragua
Chinandega (0.1 m) Nicaragua
2.9%
8.4%
Area (km2): 130,370
Population (million, 2013 est.): 6.1 Puerto
Rico
Population density (per km2, 2012 est.): 47.0 Other
31.3%
18.5%
Guatemala Other
Population growth rate (%, 2012 est.): 1.1 21.1% 35.4%

Illiteracy rate (%, 2003 est.): 32.5 Dominican
Language: Spanish Republic
15.8%
Measures: Metric System Honduras Haiti
Time: GMT-6 11.1%
Dominican
14.1%
Costa Rica
Guatemala
Republic 13.1%
14.3%
14.0%
Economic Structure
100 100
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 1.7 Agriculture 80 Net Exports
80
Energy (2010) 60

60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 72.0 40

20 Government
Consumption
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 4.5 20 Private
Services
-20 Consumption
0 -40
Airports: 143
Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 2,220
Chief Ports: Bluefields, Corinto Primary markets | share in %
Other
Political Data Venezuela
6.7% Other U.S.A.
17.6% 19.0%
7.4%
President: Daniel Ortega
Last elections: 6 November 2011 Other
LatAm Other Asia
Costa Rica
Next elections: November 2016 15.0% Exports 8.5% Imports ex-Japan
7.1%
Central Bank President: Alberto Jose Guevara U.S.A.
55.8% China
EU-27 7.9%
Mexico
6.5% 12.2%
Canada Other
8.7% LatAm
Venezuela 12.9%

S&P: - - Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: - -
Other Other
4.1% Manufact. 1.2%
Strengths Weaknesses Products
7.6%
Food
17.1%
• Competitive labor costs • Small domestic economy

• CAFTA-DR membership • Heavy debt burden Exports Imports
facilitates access to U.S. market • Large current account deficit Mineral
Fuels
• Recurrent border conflict 22.0%
Manufact.
Products
with Costa Rica 59.7%
. Food
88.3%

FOCUSECONOMICS Puerto Rico March 2014
Puerto Rico
Outlook stable
Puerto Rico
 The Government Development Bank (GDB) sold USD 3.5 billion

in bonds on 11 March. This is the largest debt offering Puerto
Rico has ever made. Demand for the bonds was notably high as
investors were enticed by the 8.7% yield. The proceeds will help to
sustain the government for about two years. The commonwealth
has approximately USD 70 billion in outstanding debt, which most
analysts consider to be unsustainable as the economy struggles to
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages recover from recent years of recession. The government promised
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
to honor its obligations, even though all three major credit rating
Population (million): 3.8 3.7 3.6 agencies had previously downgraded the island’s credit rating to
GDP (USD bn): 92.1 99.1 102.0
junk status.
GDP growth (%): -1.7 -0.6 -0.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -21.8 -34.4 -40.7  FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GNP to
Inflation (%): 4.6 2.4 1.5 contract 1.0% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.7 8.4 6.7 forecast. For 2015, the panel expects GNP to fall 0.2%.
Carl Kelly  Annual inflation increased from 0.8% in December to 1.1% in January.
Economist FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect an inflation
rate of 0.9% in 2014 and 1.1% in 2015.
10 0 12
Puerto Rico
Latin America
World -10
8
5
-20
4
-30
0
0
-40
Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico
-5 -50 -4
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
1 -30 1.8
2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
1.6
0 -35
1.4
1.2
-1 -40
1.0
-2 -45 0.8

Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 86.2 88.4 92.6 95.4 97.1 98.8 101.5 101.8 101.7 102.6
GNP per capita (USD) 15,204 16,030 16,673 17,008 17,278 17,749 18,942 19,140 19,261 19,573
GNP (USD bn) 57.9 60.6 62.7 63.6 64.3 65.6 69.5 69.7 69.6 70.2
Economic Growth (GNP, annual var. in %) 0.5 -1.2 -2.9 -3.8 -3.6 -1.6 0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -0.2
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 6.5 4.0 6.5 -0.4 2.0 3.3 0.9 0.4 - -
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -8.0 -4.8 -1.2 4.0 8.1 8.1 9.0 8.3 6.3 5.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4.7 -2.9 -0.7 2.5 5.2 5.3 6.3 8.4 6.4 5.7
Trade Balance (USD bn) 17.5 14.7 19.0 20.2 20.8 20.2 12.3 17.4 21.3 21.5
Exports (USD bn) 60.1 60.0 64.0 60.8 61.7 64.9 58.9 62.4 66.7 67.2
Imports (USD bn) 42.6 45.3 44.9 40.7 40.8 44.7 46.6 45.0 45.4 45.7
Exports (annual var. in %) 6.3 -0.2 6.6 -4.9 1.4 5.2 -9.2 5.9 6.9 0.7
Imports (annual var. in %) 9.6 6.2 -0.7 -9.5 0.4 9.5 4.3 -3.3 0.8 0.6
20 30
Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico Latin America
Latin America 20
15
10
0
10
-10
Notes and sources
5 -20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 General:
All annual data refer to fiscal year (July-June). Long-term chart period
from 2000 to 2015 unless otherwise stated. All real, monetary and external
sector data are from the Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico
9 | Trade Balance | USD billion 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst (GDB), the Departament of Treasury of Puerto Rico (DH, Departamento de
Hacienda de Puerto Rico), and the Puerto Rico Planning Board (JP, Junta
80 9
de Planificación de Puerto Rico). See below for details. Forecasts based
Trade Balance on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Imports 2014 2015
Exports 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: GDB, JP.

60 8 2 Balance of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico as % of GDP. Source:
DH.
Source: GDB.
40 7 4 GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Balance of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico as % of GDP, evolution
of 2013 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
20 6 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
months.
7 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: GDB, JP.
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: GDB, JP.
0 5 9 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: GDB.
2000 2005 2010 2015 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015

Fact Sheet
General Data Puerto Rico in the Region

Official name: Commonwealth of Puerto Rico Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: San Juan (2.7m)
Other cities: Bayamón (0.3m)
Carolina (0.2m) Puerto
Rico
Area (km2): 9,104 5.2%

17.6%
Puerto
Rico
Population density (per km2, 2012): 418 Other Guatemala
21.3%
28.7%
33.5%
Population growth rate (%, 2013 est.): -0.5
Life expectancy (years, 2012 est.): 79.1 Panama
10.2%
Language: Spanish, English
Haiti
Measures: Metric system 14.7%
Costa Rica
12.8%
Dominican
Honduras Republic
Time: GMT-5 11.2% Dominican 16.4%
Republic Guatemala
14.3% 14.2%
Economic Structure
100 100
Agriculture Net Exports
80 80
Energy (2010)
60 60
Government
Consumption
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 176
Services
Consumption
0 0
Airports: 29
Railways (km): -
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Guayanilla, Mayaguez, San Juan Primary markets | share in %
Other
Political Data 10.6% Other
15.9%
Governor: Alejandro García Padilla

Last elections: 6 November 2012 EU-27
18.4%
LatAm
U.S.A.
7.7%
Next elections: November 2016 42.6%
Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Jose Pagan Beauchamp Singapore
8.4%
U.S.A.
70.9%
Ireland
18.1% Other EU-
Long-term General Obligation Ratings 27
7.2%

Moody’s: Ba2 Negative
S&P: BB+ Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB Negative
Food and Electrical

Beverages Equipment
Strengths Weaknesses 8.9% Other 9.4%
23.1% Manufactur
es
• Close economic ties • Mounting public debt 13.1% Other
to the U.S. • Large fiscal deficit 42.6%
• Bilingual labor force Exports Imports

• Highly developed Machinery
16.2%
pharmaceutical industry
Pharmace
uticals Pharmace
68.0% uticals
18.7%

FOCUSECONOMICS Trinidad and Tobago March 2014
Trinidad and T.
Trinidad and Tobago
Outlook stable
 From 24 to 28 February, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar and
several members of her cabinet made the first official visit to China in
30 years. During the visit, Persad-Bissessar held talks with Chinese
Prime Minister Li Keqiang in an effort to foster commercial relations
between the two countries. The two leaders focused specifically on
the topic of energy exports. Currently, overseas oil and gas sales
account for more than half of Trinidad & Tobago’s exports.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy
Population (million): 1.3 1.3 1.3 growing 2.2% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s
GDP (USD bn): 23.0 22.5 26.9
estimate. In 2015, the panel expects GDP to expand 2.4%.
GDP growth (%): 1.2 0.0 2.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.3 -3.2 -2.0  In January, consumer prices fell 0.1% over the same month last
Inflation (%): 8.9 8.3 4.8 year (December: +0.4% year-on-year). FocusEconomics Consensus
Current Account (% of GDP): 21.2 12.2 6.9 Forecast panelists expect that inflation will end 2014 at 4.2% and
2015 at 4.5%.
Enrique Jorge
Economist
15 3 15
10
0 10
-3 5
0
Trinidad & Tobago Trinidad & Tobago
Trinidad & Tobago
Latin America
Latin America
World Latin America
-5 -6 0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
4.0 0 7
2014 2015
3.5 -1
6
3.0 -2
5
2.5 -3
2014 2015 2014 2015
2.0 -4 4

Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 18.5 21.7 28.0 19.3 20.7 23.6 23.3 25.1 26.9 28.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 13.7 4.8 3.4 -4.4 0.2 -1.6 1.5 1.6 2.2 2.4
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.9 4.9 7.9 7.4 8.8 1.9 7.0 2.2 2.7 3.2
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 12.0 8.7 4.0 -12.0 2.8 2.2 3.7 4.0 4.5 4.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.2 5.6 4.6 5.3 5.9 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.2 2.2 -3.8 -2.3 -3.0 -2.3 -4.3 -2.1 -1.9 -2.1
Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 17.8 13.5 14.3 19.1 5.3 13.8 10.4 9.0 - -
Repo Rate (%, eop) 8.00 8.00 8.75 5.25 3.75 3.00 2.75 2.75 2.25 2.25
Exchange Rate (TTD per USD, eop) 6.31 6.34 6.30 6.37 6.42 6.42 6.43 6.45 6.46 6.49
Exchange Rate (TTD per USD, aop) 6.31 6.33 6.29 6.37 6.40 6.41 6.44 6.43 6.43 6.47
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 26.0 24.8 30.3 8.5 20.2 12.3 4.1 6.4 7.4 6.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 4.8 5.4 8.5 1.6 4.2 2.9 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.0
Trade Balance (USD bn) 7.7 5.7 9.1 2.2 4.5 3.5 3.7 4.5 4.4 4.5
Exports (USD bn) 14.2 13.4 18.7 9.1 11.0 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.8
Imports (USD bn) 6.5 7.7 9.6 7.0 6.5 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.6
Exports (annual var. in %) 42.4 -5.4 39.2 -51.1 20.3 18.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 3.3
Imports (annual var. in %) 13.9 18.2 25.2 -27.5 -6.8 47.4 -1.6 -0.4 1.0 1.8
14 40
Trinidad & Tobago Trinidad & Tobago
12 30
10 20
8 10
6 0
4 -10
Notes and sources
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
General:
9 | Trade Balance | USD billion 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst real, monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of
Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT), Central Statistical Office (CSO), Ministry
20 10
of Finance (MoF), World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI),
Trade Balance International Monetary Fund (IMF). See below for details. Forecasts based
2014 2015
Imports on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Exports
15 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CBTT.
8 2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: MoF.
Source: CSO.
10 4 GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
6 and 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
months.
7 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: IMF.
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: WDI.
0 4 9 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: WDI.
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015

Fact Sheet
General Data Trinidad and Tobago in the Region

Official name: Republic of Trinidad and Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Tobago Trinidad
Capital: Port of Spain (0.5m) and
Tobago
Other cities: San Juan (0.1m) 1.8% Trinidad
and
Area (km2): 5,128 Tobago
5.9%
Population (million, 2013 est.): 1.3 Guatemala
20.9%
Population density (per km2, 2012): 260.3 Other
28.9%
Other Puerto
Pop. growth rate (%, 2013 est.): -0.1 37.9% Rico
25.9%
Haiti
Language: English, Trinidadian Creole, 14.4%
Tobagonian Creole Costa Rica
11.6% Dominican
Measures: Metric system Honduras Dominican Republic
Republic Guatemala 14.8%
Time: GMT-4 11.0%
14.0% 12.9%
Economic Structure
100 100
80 80
Energy (2010)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1858 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Government
Consumption
Services
Consumption
0 0
Airports: 118
Railways (km): -
Trade Structure
Waterways (km): - Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Point Lisas, Port of Spain
Scarborough

17.9% Other
President: Anthony Carmona 24.2%
U.S.A.
33.0%
Last elections: 15 February 2013 Chile
U.S.A.
40.3%
Next elections: March 2018 6.8%
Exports Imports
Central Bank governor: Jwala Rambarran Argentina
Colombia
7.7%
8.9%
Brazil
Other EU-27
8.1%
LatAm 9.1%
EU-27 Other Asia ex-
16.6% LatAm
9.5% Japan

Moody’s: Baa1 Stable
S&P: A Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: - -
Other Other
4.5% Food 5.2%
Manufact.
• World's fifth largest producer of • Small domestic economy Products
23.8%
liquified natural gas (LNG) • Pronounced socio-economic
• World's first exporter of methanol inequalities Exports Mineral Imports
Fuels
and ammonia 33.8% Manufact.
Products
Mineral
• Ample sovereign wealth fund Fuels
51.2%
71.7%

FOCUSECONOMICS
Notes March 2014
Notes and Statements
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economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and
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Tobago
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FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America &amp; Caribbean - March 2014

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FOCUSECONOMICS

Trinidad and T. ...........................................59

© FocusEconomics 2014 Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, Spain

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Central America and Caribbean

2012 2013 2014 2015

2012 2013 2014 2015

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |2

 FocusEconomics panelists expect regional GDP to expand 2.9%

 Analysts expect regional inflation to end 2014 at 4.0%, which is down

Forecast Changes Over Last Month

Change in 2014 GDP Growth Forecast Change in 2014 Inflation Forecast

Dominican Republic Nicaragua

-0.06 -0.03 0.00 0.03 0.06 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |3

Electoral authorities declared that left-wing candidate Salvador Sanchez Ceren

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |4

On 19 February, the government announced the development of a public-private

From 24 to 28 February, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar and several

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |5

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2014

2012 2013 2014 2015 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Notes and sources

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |6

Consumption, annual variation in % Consumption Growth, 2014

2012 2013 2014 2015 0 2 4 6 8

Note: Total consumption, real annual variation in %.

Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

5 Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |7

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2014

15 Notes and sources

Note: Unemployment rate, % of active population (for details see

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2014

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

Notes and sources

2012 2013 2014 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |8

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2014

Notes and sources

Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2014

10 Trinidad and Tobago

Notes and sources

8 Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |9

2012 2013 2014 2015 -2 0 2 4 6

Notes and sources

Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2014

Notes and sources

2012 2013 2014 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean | 10

Exports, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

Imports, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

5 Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports.

2012 2013 2014 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean | 11

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America & Caribbean - March 2014

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America & Caribbean - March 2014