FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean - November 2014

FOCUSECONOMICS
CONSENSUS FORECAST
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
Contents
Summary...........................................................3
Calendar..........................................................13
Costa Rica.......................................................14
Dominican Rep...............................................20
Guatemala.......................................................26
Panama............................................................32
Other Countries..............................................38
Belize..........................................................38
El Salvador.................................................41
Haiti.............................................................44
Honduras....................................................47
Jamaica......................................................50
Nicaragua...................................................53
Puerto Rico.................................................56
Trinidad and T. ...........................................59
Notes...............................................................62
November 2014
Publication date: 11 November 2014
Information available: up to and including 10 November 2014
Forecasts collected: 3 November - 7 November 2014
Next edition: 9 December 2014
. .
Arne Pohlman Armando Ciccarelli Ricard Torné Carl Kelly Angela Bouzanis Olga Coșcodan
Chief Economist Head of Research Senior Economist Economist Economist Economist
Miriam C. Dowd Ricardo Aceves Dirina Mançellari Teresa Kersting Cecilia Simkievich
Editor Senior Economist Economist Economist Economist
.. x
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FOCUSECONOMICS info@focus-economics.com
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FOCUSECONOMICS Summary November 2014
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Central America and Caribbean

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual variation in %
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.8 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.0
United States 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 3.0 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.9
Euro area 1.6 -0.6 -0.4 0.8 1.2 2.7 2.5 1.4 0.5 1.0
Japan -0.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.1 -0.3 0.0 0.4 2.8 1.8
China 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.2 5.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.8
Latin America 4.3 2.8 2.7 1.1 2.2 7.1 6.2 8.5 12.4 11.3
Brazil 2.7 1.0 2.5 0.3 1.1 6.5 5.8 5.9 6.4 6.4
Mexico 4.0 4.0 1.1 2.4 3.7 3.8 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.5
Centam & Caribbean 2.8 3.3 3.3 2.9 3.1 5.4 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.0
Belize 2.1 3.8 1.5 2.4 2.8 1.9 1.3 0.5 1.7 1.9
Costa Rica 4.2 5.2 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.7 4.6 3.7 5.5 5.0
Dominican Republic 2.9 2.7 4.6 4.4 4.5 7.8 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.2
El Salvador 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.1 5.1 0.8 0.8 2.1 2.4
Guatemala 4.2 3.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 6.2 3.5 4.4 3.6 4.3
Haiti 5.5 2.9 4.3 3.9 4.2 8.3 7.6 3.4 4.9 5.0
Honduras 3.8 3.9 2.6 3.0 3.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 6.3 5.7
Jamaica 1.7 -0.6 0.6 1.2 1.6 6.0 8.0 9.5 8.9 8.0
Nicaragua 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.3 8.0 6.6 5.7 6.9 7.0
Panama 10.8 10.2 8.4 6.6 6.2 6.3 4.6 3.7 3.6 3.6
Puerto Rico -1.7 0.9 0.3 -1.3 -0.7 1.8 2.6 0.9 0.9 1.6
Trinidad and Tobago -2.6 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.2 5.3 7.2 5.6 5.2 4.0
Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %
9 15
2012 2013 2014 2015
6 10
3 5
0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015
-3 -5
World United States Euro area Japan China Latin Centam & World United States Euro area Japan China Latin Centam &
America Caribbean America Caribbean
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World -4.6 -4.2 -3.3 -2.8 -2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -8.4 -6.7 -4.1 -2.9 -2.6 -3.0 -2.9 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3
Euro area -4.1 -3.6 -2.9 -2.7 -2.4 0.1 1.5 2.4 2.5 2.5
Japan -9.6 -9.8 -10.1 -7.9 -6.8 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.7
China -1.1 -1.7 -1.9 -2.1 -2.0 1.9 2.6 2.0 2.3 2.1
Latin America -2.1 -2.8 -2.9 -4.1 -3.8 -1.3 -1.8 -2.5 -2.3 -2.4
Brazil -2.6 -2.5 -3.3 -4.5 -4.0 -2.1 -2.4 -3.6 -3.7 -3.4
Mexico -2.4 -2.6 -2.3 -3.7 -3.4 -1.1 -1.3 -2.1 -1.9 -2.1
Centam & Caribbean -2.5 -10.4 -10.1 -9.5 -9.3 -3.2 -3.0 -2.1 -1.9 -2.1
Belize -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -1.8 -1.8 -1.1 -1.2 -4.4 -4.5 -4.7
Costa Rica -4.1 -4.4 -5.4 -5.9 -6.1 -5.4 -5.3 -4.9 -5.1 -5.0
Dominican Republic -3.0 -6.6 -3.6 -3.1 -2.9 -7.5 -6.6 -4.2 -4.0 -3.7
El Salvador -4.0 -3.5 -3.6 -3.4 -3.6 -4.8 -5.4 -6.5 -5.7 -5.5
Guatemala -2.8 -2.4 -2.1 -2.5 -2.6 -3.4 -2.6 -2.8 -2.8 -3.1
Haiti -3.6 -4.8 -6.7 -6.3 -5.6 -4.3 -5.5 -6.5 -6.3 -5.8
Honduras -2.8 -4.2 -7.6 -4.8 -4.3 -8.0 -8.6 -8.8 -8.0 -7.6
Jamaica -6.4 -4.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -13.4 -13.0 -10.9 -8.6 -6.9
Nicaragua -0.6 0.0 0.1 -1.2 -1.3 -13.1 -12.3 -11.5 -11.6 -11.3
Panama -2.2 -1.5 -3.0 -3.2 -2.1 -15.0 -10.1 -11.3 -9.2 -9.3
Puerto Rico -33.6 -38.6 -39.1 -38.2 -39.1 8.1 9.1 10.3 6.7 6.3
Trinidad and Tobago -2.3 -4.3 -3.0 -1.5 -2.2 12.2 4.1 10.4 10.3 9.3
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

0 4
-3 2
-6 0
-9 -2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015

-12 -4
World United Euro area Japan China Latin Centam & United States Euro area Japan China Latin America Centam &
States America Caribbean Caribbean
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |2

Summary
Regional outlook stable
 Following healthy growth in the first half of the year, many economies
in Central America and the Caribbean seem to be going through a soft
patch in the second half. Nonetheless, improving global conditions
next year are expected to buttress stronger economic growth in the
region. Panelists revised up their 2015 growth prospects for Belize,
the Dominican Republic and Guatemala. Meanwhile, the growth
projections for 6 of the 12 economies surveyed were unchanged over
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages last month. Only Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Trinidad and Tobago
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15 experienced downward revisions. Panama is still expected to be the
GDP growth (%) 1.9 2.9 3.1 region’s fastest growing economy in 2015, while Puerto Rico, at the
Inflation (%) 6.5 5.0 3.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -5.2 -9.6
other end of the spectrum, is projected to be the worst performer.
Current Account (% of GDP) -2.8 -2.4 -2.1
 As a result of less favorable external conditions, panelists expect
regional GDP growth of 2.9% in 2014. If the forecast is confirmed, this
will be the regions’ slowest pace of economic growth since 2011. Next
year, improving global conditions, particularly in the United States,
Ricardo Aceves
will support faster economic growth. Panelists expect regional GDP
Senior Economist
growth to pick up to 3.1%, which is unchanged from last month’s
forecast.
 Inflation in Central America and the Caribbean is expected to end

2014 at 3.9%. Faster economic growth next year, counterbalanced
by lower commodity prices, will keep regional inflation virtually
contained. Panelists see inflation rising just slightly to 4.0% in 2015.
Forecast Changes Over Last Month
Change in 2015 GDP Growth Forecast Change in 2015 Inflation Forecast
Dominican Republic Haiti

Puerto Rico Puerto Rico
Caribbean Jamaica
Guatemala Costa Rica
Belize Guatemala
Jamaica Caribbean
Centam & Caribbean Belize
Honduras Centam & Caribbean
El Salvador Central America
Central America Panama
Costa Rica Nicaragua
Haiti Honduras
Panama Dominican Republic
Trinidad and Tobago El Salvador
Nicaragua Trinidad and Tobago
-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2
Note: Change between November and October 2014 in percentage points. Note: Change between November and October 2014 in percentage points.
Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
. .

Forecasts
Current Developments
2014 2015
The regional estimate for 2015 was unchanged over the previous month.
Panelists lifted growth prospects for Belize, the Dominican Republic and
Guatemala, while projections for Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Trinidad and Tobago GDP 2.9 = 3.1 =
Centam & were revised downward. 6 of the 12 economies surveyed experienced no change
Caribbean in their forecasts this month.
Panelist see the region’s inflation ending at 3.9% in both 2014, before rising to
Inflation 3.9 ↓ 4.0 =
4.0% in 2015.
According to preliminary estimates released on 29 October, imports expanded

9.6% annually in September, which marked an acceleration over the 7.6%
increase tallied in August. Domestic exports plummeted 31.6% in September over
the same month last year, which largely contrasted the 38.8% jump tallied in the GDP 2.4 ↑ 2.8 ↑
Belize previous month. The sharp drop was mainly attributable to the fact that there
were no shipments of crude oil in September, thereby confirming the descending
trend that has been recorded in oil exports in recent months.
Inflation fell further from 0.9% in August to 0.7% in September. Inflation 1.7 ↑ 1.9 =
The economy has been losing momentum since Q3 last year. GDP growth
slowed from Q1’s 4.1% expansion to weaker 3.8% in Q2, driven by falling
investment and lower consumption. Growth moderated in July and further in
GDP 3.7 = 3.7 ↓
Costa Rica August, when it fell to the slowest pace since April 2013. Rising prices,
particularly administered energy prices, reduced the country’s competitiveness
and prompted several foreign companies to ramp down operations in Costa Rica.
Inflation increased from 5.2% in September to 5.7% in October. Inflation 5.5 ↑ 5.0 =
Preliminary data show that economic growth remained buoyant in the third
quarter, driven by strong manufacturing and services. The economy is benefiting
GDP 4.4 ↑ 4.5 ↑
Dominican from low oil prices, which helps reduce the country’s current account deficit and is
Republic expected to cut the oil bill next year by USD 600 million.
Inflation inched up from 2.8% in September to 2.9% in October. On 31 October,
Inflation 4.2 ↓ 4.2 ↓
the Central Bank decided to maintain its monetary policy rate at 6.25%.
Economic growth in El Salvador has remained sluggish in recent years mainly

due to structural weaknesses and external shocks following the global financial
crisis. Recent data confirm that the economy is going through a period of
subdued economic growth, with August’s economic activity expanding at the
GDP 2.0 ↑ 2.1 =
El Salvador weakest pace in over four years. Meanwhile, the IMF noted that the government’s
goal of achieving a sustained 3.0% growth is feasible if supported by, “far-
reaching structural reforms.” The IMF, however, urged the country to further
reduce its fiscal deficit in order to guarantee long-term fiscal sustainability.
Annual inflation rose from September’s 1.7% to 1.9% in October. Inflation 2.1 = 2.4 ↓
Guatemala’s economy accelerated in the second quarter and more recent data
point to continued growth in the second half of the year. Economic activity has
recorded strong results and remittances, an important source of income for
GDP 3.6 = 3.6 ↑
Guatemala Guatemalan households, have been on an upward trend. The pick-up in
remittances has been accredited to the stronger United States economy, which
has benefitted Guatemalans abroad.
Inflation ticked up from 3.5% in September to 3.6% in October. Inflation 3.6 ↓ 4.3 =
.
Haiti’s economy picked up in 2013, confirming that it has finally recovered from
the devastating 2010 earthquake. The IMF recently granted the government more
time to implement the fiscal reforms that were agreed upon under the country’s
Extended Credit Facility. If Haiti completes the required actions on the fiscal and
GDP 3.9 = 4.2 =
Haiti structural fronts by 28 December, it will receive the final disbursement under the
arrangement. Meanwhile, President Michel Martelly met German Chancellor
Angela Merkel to discuss increasing German investment in Haiti and the
upcoming 2015 legislative elections.
Inflation rose from 5.1% in August to 5.3% in September. Inflation 4.9 ↓ 5.0 ↑
.

Forecasts
Current Developments
2014 2015
Economy activity in Honduras has been losing momentum since the second
quarter of the year. Economic growth slowed from 3.3% in the first quarter to
2.7% in the second and continued to moderate during July and August. The
GDP 3.0 = 3.1 =
Honduras slowdown mainly reflects the weak performance of the agriculture sector, which is
suffering from one of the most severe droughts in history that has affected
several Central American countries since June.
Annual inflation eased from 6.3% in August to 6.1% in September. Inflation 6.3 ↑ 5.7 ↓
In the second quarter, economic growth accelerated on the back of a rebound in

manufacturing due to a boost in oil refining and sugar production. The economy’s
good performance also reflects the reforms and spending restraints that the GDP 1.2 = 1.6 =
Jamaica government has undertaken since the country signed the Extended Fund Facility
agreement with the IMF last year.
Inflation fell from 9.8% in August to 9.0% in September. Inflation 8.9 ↑ 8.0 =
The economy decelerated significantly from the 5.4% expansion recorded in the
first quarter to 3.2% growth in the second. Q2’s slowdown was largely driven by
shrinking investment and, to a lesser extent, by falling net exports as well as a
GDP 4.3 = 4.3 ↓
Nicaragua moderation in consumption. Low rainfall triggered a notable decline in agricultural
output, such as in the production of sugar, grains, livestock and forestry, and a
marked drop in construction also added to Q2’s weak performance.
Inflation inched up from 6.5% in September to 6.6% in October. Inflation 6.9 ↓ 7.0 =
GDP growth accelerated in Q2 after hitting a five-year low in Q1 and more recent
data suggest that the downward trend in economic activity is bottoming out. The
economy had been losing steam amid a slowdown in activities linked to the
Panama Canal expansion and the conclusion of several large state-funded
GDP 6.6 ↓ 6.2 =
Panama infrastructure projects, but now appears to be stabilizing. The upgraded Canal is
on track to begin operations in early 2016. In the meantime, the economy will
benefit from an ongoing process of diversification, with service-oriented sectors
such as trade and logistics, as well as banking and insurance, gaining strength.
Inflation increased from 2.1% in August to 2.3% in September. Inflation 3.6 ↓ 3.6 ↓
The Puerto Rican economy remains in the doldrums and there is no indication as
to when or how it will recover from years of falling growth. The island is burdened
by more than USD 73 billion in debt, including roughly USD 20 billion held by
large public companies. The government passed legislation in June allowing
these companies to restructure their finances and has raised additional funds GDP -1.3 = -0.7 =
Puerto Rico through the sale of new bonds. However, legal challenges from external creditors
and questions surrounding the sustainability of new financing are a source of
concern, as are prospects that a widespread debt default is looming. Meanwhile,
economic activity continues to slide and unemployment is in the double-digits.
In September, annual inflation inched down to 0.3% (August: +0.4% year-on-
Inflation 0.9 = 1.6 ↑
year).
While the Trinidadian economy recorded zero annual growth in the first quarter of
the year, more recent data point to a positive development of the economy.
Preliminary results for the second quarter show that the non-energy sector grew
Trinidad and at a strong pace and that the sector’s contribution to GDP will increase in 2014. GDP 2.1 = 2.2 ↓
Tobago The government has been trying to boost dynamism in the economy by
diversifying away from the volatile energy sector, which forms the backbone of
GDP.
In September, inflation rose to 7.8% from August’s 7.4%. Inflation 5.2 ↑ 4.0 ↓
Note: Arrows and equal sign denote changes in Consensus Forecast over last month.

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Panama
Centam & Caribbean -1.1 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.3 2.9 3.1 Dominican Republic
Central America -0.1 3.8 5.2 5.1 4.3 4.0 4.0
Nicaragua
Belize 0.7 3.3 2.1 3.8 1.5 2.4 2.8
Central America
Costa Rica -0.7 4.9 4.2 5.2 3.6 3.7 3.7
El Salvador -3.1 1.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.1 Haiti
Guatemala 0.5 2.9 4.2 3.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 Costa Rica
Honduras -2.4 3.7 3.8 3.9 2.6 3.0 3.1 Guatemala
Nicaragua -2.8 3.3 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.3 Honduras
Panama 4.0 5.9 10.8 10.2 8.4 6.6 6.2 Centam & Caribbean
Caribbean -2.1 1.0 0.4 1.5 2.2 1.6 2.0
Belize
Dominican Republic 1.0 8.3 2.9 2.7 4.6 4.4 4.5
Trinidad and Tobago
Haiti 3.1 -5.5 5.5 2.9 4.3 3.9 4.2
El Salvador
Jamaica -4.4 -1.5 1.7 -0.6 0.6 1.2 1.6
Puerto Rico -3.8 -3.6 -1.7 0.9 0.3 -1.3 -0.7 Caribbean
Trinidad and Tobago -4.4 0.2 -2.6 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.2 Jamaica
6 Puerto Rico
-2 0 2 4 6 8
Notes and sources

3 Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Data for
Puerto Rico refer to Gross National Product (GNP).
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
2012 2013 2014 2015
-3
Centam & Central Caribbean Puerto Rico Dominican Guatemala
Caribbean America Republic
GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Trinidad and Tobago
Centam & Caribbean 4,169 4,468 4,843 5,036 5,226 5,353 5,559 Puerto Rico
Central America 3,308 3,631 4,033 4,272 4,512 4,671 4,884 Panama
Belize 4,139 4,312 4,479 4,615 4,641 4,735 4,859
Costa Rica
Costa Rica 6,586 8,063 9,004 9,746 10,530 10,434 10,846
El Salvador 3,343 3,443 3,696 3,780 3,835 3,941 4,091 Caribbean
Guatemala 2,702 2,887 3,237 3,337 3,488 3,652 3,793 Dominican Republic
Honduras 1,952 2,078 2,276 2,335 2,328 2,405 2,455 Centam & Caribbean
Nicaragua 1,436 1,503 1,651 1,746 1,839 1,925 2,014 Jamaica
Panama 7,482 8,170 9,268 10,385 11,461 12,351 13,328
Belize
Caribbean 5,485 5,758 6,104 6,235 6,356 6,441 6,643
Central America
Dominican Republic 4,938 5,447 5,844 5,945 6,046 6,184 6,503
Haiti 668.5 671.7 754.2 786.8 840.9 873.1 933 El Salvador
Jamaica 4,441 4,827 5,239 5,343 5,159 5,064 5,172 Guatemala
Puerto Rico 17,008 17,278 17,827 18,813 19,429 19,472 19,735 Honduras
Trinidad and Tobago 14,612 15,631 17,761 17,529 18,334 19,609 20,841 Nicaragua
20,000 Haiti
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

2012 2013 2014 2015
Notes and sources
15,000
Note: GDP per capita in current USD. Data for Puerto Rico refer to
GNP.
10,000
5,000
0

Consumption, annual variation in % Consumption Growth, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Panama
Centam & Caribbean -0.2 6.6 4.3 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.0
Nicaragua
Central America -0.7 7.8 6.1 2.3 4.0 3.9 3.8
Central America
Belize 3.9 5.4 3.6 3.7 4.8 2.8 2.5
Costa Rica 2.3 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.0 Guatemala
El Salvador -9.2 2.2 2.5 2.5 0.8 2.1 2.6 Honduras
Guatemala 1.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.9 3.9 Costa Rica
Honduras 1.2 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.3 3.2 3.2
Centam & Caribbean
Nicaragua 1.2 4.5 4.9 4.6 3.8 3.9 4.1
Panama -1.7 25.4 16.6 -2.3 7.2 6.1 5.3 Dominican Republic
Caribbean 0.3 5.5 2.5 3.3 2.0 1.8 2.1 Belize
Dominican Republic 5.0 7.7 2.6 4.3 1.4 2.9 3.2 Trinidad and Tobago
Haiti 1.7 13.8 -2.8 -5.2 2.8 - - El Salvador
Jamaica -18.5 10.4 13.1 3.5 1.3 1.1 1.5
Caribbean
Puerto Rico -2.0 0.6 0.9 2.1 1.9 0.8 1.0
Trinidad and Tobago 7.4 8.8 1.9 7.0 3.7 2.7 3.0 Jamaica
5 Puerto Rico
2012 2013 2014 2015 0 2 4 6 8
4
Notes and sources
Note: Total consumption, real annual variation in %.

3 Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
0
Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Panama
Centam & Caribbean -14.1 3.1 8.4 3.9 4.4 3.7 3.8
Central America -15.7 2.8 12.6 6.7 7.8 6.5 5.8 Costa Rica
Belize -18.8 -21.2 -0.5 9.4 17.2 1.9 2.0 Central America
Costa Rica -11.1 5.5 8.9 7.8 12.4 6.6 6.2 Nicaragua
El Salvador -19.2 2.4 13.8 -1.4 9.7 4.4 4.9
Trinidad and Tobago
Guatemala -13.1 -2.1 7.1 3.6 1.8 4.4 4.4
Honduras -35.4 1.4 16.9 4.2 -0.9 4.5 5.1 Honduras
Nicaragua -29.1 -6.6 21.6 5.5 -8.3 6.3 7.6 Guatemala
Panama -6.2 11.6 19.9 16.1 16.6 11.0 7.7 El Salvador
Caribbean -11.1 3.1 3.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 1.3
Centam & Caribbean
Dominican Republic -14.0 18.3 -2.7 -2.9 4.8 2.0 2.8
Haiti 3.6 -6.5 9.6 6.2 6.1 - - Jamaica
Jamaica -17.9 -2.6 8.1 -5.0 5.5 2.5 2.9 Dominican Republic
Puerto Rico -12.5 -6.4 9.4 4.0 -5.8 -2.8 -1.5 Belize
Trinidad and Tobago -12.0 2.8 2.2 3.7 4.0 4.5 4.8
Caribbean
10
Puerto Rico
2012 2013 2014 2015 -3 0 3 6 9 12
Notes and sources

5
Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %.

-5
-10

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jamaica
Centam & Caribbean 9.5 9.9 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.6
Dominican Republic
Central America 5.3 5.1 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.5
Belize 13.1 23.3 18.9 14.4 14.1 13.4 13.1 Puerto Rico
Costa Rica 8.4 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.5 8.6 8.5 Belize
El Salvador 7.3 7.1 6.6 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.8
Caribbean
Guatemala 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3
Honduras - - - - - - - Centam & Caribbean
Nicaragua 8.2 7.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.3 Costa Rica
Panama 6.7 6.5 4.5 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.5
Nicaragua
Caribbean 12.2 13.3 13.1 12.8 12.2 12.1 11.9
Dominican Republic 14.9 14.3 14.6 14.7 15.0 14.6 14.4 El Salvador
Haiti - - - - - - - Trinidad and Tobago
Jamaica 11.4 12.4 12.7 13.7 13.4 14.8 14.7 Central America
Puerto Rico 13.7 16.3 16.2 15.2 14.0 13.5 13.4
Panama
Trinidad and Tobago 5.3 5.9 5.0 4.8 3.7 5.0 4.8
Guatemala
20
0 5 10 15
2012 2013 2014 2015
15 Notes and sources
Note: Unemployment rate, % of active population (for details see

notes in country).
10
0
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Jamaica
Centam & Caribbean -2.8 -2.6 -2.5 -10.4 -10.1 -9.5 -9.3
Nicaragua
Central America -3.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.9 -3.7 -3.7 -3.5
Belize -2.9 -1.7 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -1.8 -1.8 Trinidad and Tobago
Costa Rica -3.4 -5.1 -4.1 -4.4 -5.4 -5.9 -6.1 Belize
El Salvador -5.5 -4.4 -4.0 -3.5 -3.6 -3.4 -3.6 Guatemala
Guatemala -3.1 -3.3 -2.8 -2.4 -2.1 -2.5 -2.6 Dominican Republic
Honduras -4.3 -2.8 -2.8 -4.2 -7.6 -4.8 -4.3
Panama
Nicaragua -3.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.0 0.1 -1.2 -1.3
El Salvador
Panama -1.0 -1.9 -2.2 -1.5 -3.0 -3.2 -2.1
Caribbean -2.4 -1.8 -2.1 -18.6 -17.3 -16.2 -16.2 Central America
Dominican Republic -3.0 -2.7 -3.0 -6.6 -3.6 -3.1 -2.9 Honduras
Haiti -4.6 2.2 -3.6 -4.8 -6.7 -6.3 -5.6 Costa Rica
Jamaica -11.1 -6.3 -6.4 -4.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 Haiti
Puerto Rico -27.3 -30.9 -33.6 -38.6 -39.1 -38.2 -39.1
Centam & Caribbean
Trinidad and Tobago -2.3 -3.0 -2.3 -4.3 -3.0 -1.5 -2.2
Caribbean
0
Puerto Rico
-40 -30 -20 -10 0
Notes and sources

-10
Note: Central government balance as % of GDP. Data for Costa Rica
and Honduras refer to non-financial public sector balance. Data for
Haiti refer to financial operations of central government. Data for
-20 Puerto Rico refer to Balance of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico.
Sources: National statistical institutes and finance ministries.
-30
2012 2013 2014 2015

-40

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jamaica
Nicaragua
Central America 1.5 5.2 5.7 4.0 3.7 4.3 4.4
Honduras
Belize -1.1 0.9 1.9 1.3 0.5 1.7 1.9
Costa Rica 4.0 5.8 4.7 4.6 3.7 5.5 5.0 Costa Rica
El Salvador -0.2 2.1 5.1 0.8 0.8 2.1 2.4 Trinidad and Tobago
Guatemala -0.3 5.4 6.2 3.5 4.4 3.6 4.3 Haiti
Honduras 3.0 6.5 5.6 5.4 4.9 6.3 5.7 Central America
Nicaragua 0.9 9.2 8.0 6.6 5.7 6.9 7.0 Dominican Republic
Panama 1.9 4.9 6.3 4.6 3.7 3.6 3.6
Centam & Caribbean
Caribbean 3.8 5.9 5.0 4.3 3.4 3.5 3.5
Dominican Republic 5.8 6.2 7.8 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.2 Panama
Haiti -4.7 4.7 8.3 7.6 3.4 4.9 5.0 Guatemala

Jamaica 10.2 11.8 6.0 8.0 9.5 8.9 8.0 Caribbean
Puerto Rico 2.8 2.0 1.8 2.6 0.9 0.9 1.6 El Salvador
Trinidad and Tobago 1.3 13.4 5.3 7.2 5.6 5.2 4.0 Belize
6 Puerto Rico
2012 2013 2014 2015
0 3 6 9
Notes and sources

4 Note: End-of-year variation of consumer price index in %. Data for
Puerto Rico refer to average-of-period variation of consumer price
index in %.
0
Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Honduras
Central America 8.0 7.5 7.4 7.9 7.5 7.7 7.8 Nicaragua
Belize 14.0 13.8 13.0 12.0 11.1 11.1 11.4 Belize
Costa Rica 8.3 8.0 8.0 9.2 6.5 7.5 8.0 Panama
El Salvador 3.3 1.8 1.4 2.6 2.9 3.5 3.6
Jamaica
Guatemala 4.5 4.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.6
Central America
Honduras 18.9 19.0 18.1 19.2 20.3 17.5 16.2
Nicaragua 14.1 13.3 10.8 12.0 15.0 15.1 16.1 Haiti
Panama 8.2 7.1 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.8 7.9 Costa Rica
Caribbean 5.6 5.2 5.9 5.0 6.1 5.5 5.6 Centam & Caribbean
Dominican Republic
Haiti 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.5 8.0
Jamaica 8.6 4.1 3.3 4.0 7.6 7.8 7.9 Caribbean
Puerto Rico - - - - - - - Guatemala
Trinidad and Tobago 7.3 5.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 2.3 2.3 El Salvador
10 Trinidad and Tobago
0 5 10 15 20
2012 2013 2014 2015
Notes and sources
8 Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %.

Belize: Weighted average lending rate.
Costa Rica: Basic rate.
Dominican Republic: Overnight interest rate.
El Salvador: 60-Day USD average deposit rate.
Guatemala: Policy interest rate.
6 Haiti: Central Bank market rate.
Honduras: Lending rate.
Nicaragua: Average lending rate.
Jamaica: 30-Day deposit rate.
Panama: 1-5 year commercial loan rate.
Trinidad and Tobago: Central Bank repo rate.
4 Sources: National central banks.
Centam & Central Caribbean Dominican Guatemala Costa Rica

Exchange Rates vs. USD, annual variation in % Depreciation versus USD, 2014
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Costa Rica
Centam & Caribbean 3.4 -1.8 1.0 2.8 2.3 3.4 2.6
Central America 3.3 -4.3 -0.4 2.0 -0.3 4.2 2.5 Jamaica
Belize - - - - - - -
Nicaragua
Costa Rica -1.1 -9.1 0.3 1.4 -2.3 9.3 3.6
El Salvador - - - - - - - Central America
Guatemala 7.6 -3.8 -2.5 1.2 -0.8 -0.4 1.0
Honduras 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.8 3.2 3.8 2.7 Honduras
Nicaragua 5.5 5.0 5.0 3.8 5.3 5.0 5.5 Centam & Caribbean
Panama - - - - - - -
Caribbean 3.5 1.1 2.4 3.8 5.5 2.4 2.7 Dominican Republic
Caribbean
Haiti 4.5 -4.4 2.6 3.9 3.1 0.3 1.7
Jamaica 11.9 -4.2 1.0 7.4 14.7 5.4 7.2 Trinidad and Tobago
Puerto Rico - - - - - - -
Trinidad and Tobago 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.0 Haiti
10 Guatemala
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Notes and sources

5 Note: Annual variation of national currencies versus USD in %. Belize,
El Salvador, Panama and Puerto Rico are dollarized economies and
are not included in the regional average. Positive numbers mean
currency is losing value against USD. Regional aggregates provided
only as indicative information.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and national central banks.
0
2012 2013 2014 2015
-5
Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Trinidad and Tobago
Centam & Caribbean -0.6 -1.0 -3.2 -3.0 -2.1 -1.9 -2.1
Puerto Rico
Central America -1.6 -4.4 -7.3 -6.2 -6.6 -6.1 -6.1
Belize -4.9 -3.3 -1.1 -1.2 -4.4 -4.5 -4.7 Caribbean
Costa Rica -2.0 -3.5 -5.4 -5.3 -4.9 -5.1 -5.0 Centam & Caribbean
El Salvador -1.5 -2.5 -4.8 -5.4 -6.5 -5.7 -5.5 Guatemala
Guatemala 0.8 -1.4 -3.4 -2.6 -2.8 -2.8 -3.1 Dominican Republic
Honduras -3.5 -4.3 -8.0 -8.6 -8.8 -8.0 -7.6
Belize
Nicaragua -9.5 -10.1 -13.1 -12.3 -11.5 -11.6 -11.3
Costa Rica
Panama -0.7 -9.6 -15.0 -10.1 -11.3 -9.2 -9.3
Caribbean 0.3 2.4 0.9 0.5 2.9 2.8 2.6 El Salvador
Dominican Republic -4.8 -8.0 -7.5 -6.6 -4.2 -4.0 -3.7 Central America
Haiti -1.9 -1.5 -4.3 -5.5 -6.5 -6.3 -5.8 Haiti
Jamaica -11.0 -8.7 -13.4 -13.0 -10.9 -8.6 -6.9 Honduras
Puerto Rico 4.0 8.1 8.1 9.1 10.3 6.7 6.3
Jamaica
Panama
12
Nicaragua
-20 -10 0 10 20
Notes and sources

6
Note: Current account balance as % of GDP.
-6
2012 2013 2014 2015
-12
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean | 10

Exports, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Belize
Centam & Caribbean -13.4 8.6 14.0 -1.0 1.9 2.9 4.3 Panama
Central America -6.6 15.6 23.1 7.0 -2.3 5.5 5.8 Nicaragua
Belize -20.2 24.8 26.2 3.0 -2.1 8.3 8.6
Guatemala
Costa Rica -7.6 7.6 10.2 9.8 1.5 3.4 3.0
Haiti
El Salvador -16.7 16.4 18.0 0.6 2.8 2.6 3.3
Guatemala -6.4 16.4 23.5 -3.8 1.0 6.1 6.6 Dominican Republic
Honduras -22.2 19.0 25.5 10.1 -0.9 4.4 4.6 Central America
Nicaragua -6.7 35.7 21.1 17.4 -11.1 6.3 9.4 Jamaica
Panama 9.3 16.9 33.5 11.5 -7.2 7.9 7.7 Honduras
Caribbean -16.3 5.2 9.2 -5.8 4.9 1.1 3.3
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic -18.7 23.2 25.7 6.8 6.4 5.6 8.5
Centam & Caribbean
Haiti 12.4 2.2 36.3 1.0 13.9 5.9 12.9
El Salvador
Jamaica -48.0 1.2 21.5 6.5 -9.8 5.3 6.2
Puerto Rico -4.9 1.4 5.2 -9.2 5.9 0.4 2.8 Caribbean
Trinidad and Tobago -51.1 20.3 18.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.1 Trinidad and Tobago
10 Puerto Rico
0 2 4 6 8 10
5 Notes and sources
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports.

0
-5
2012 2013 2014 2015

-10
Imports, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Panama
Centam & Caribbean -18.3 11.9 19.7 4.2 -1.4 4.3 5.8 Jamaica
Central America -20.4 19.3 25.5 5.9 0.0 7.6 6.4 Guatemala
Belize -21.3 5.3 18.6 5.6 7.1 7.5 8.0
Central America
Costa Rica -26.0 19.3 19.1 8.6 2.3 5.4 4.8
Belize
El Salvador -25.4 14.9 18.4 2.9 5.0 4.6 6.1
Guatemala -20.9 20.8 21.1 1.9 3.8 8.6 8.1 Haiti
Honduras -30.2 17.1 20.9 8.1 -0.9 3.9 4.6 Dominican Republic
Nicaragua -18.6 20.0 23.8 13.5 -5.1 4.9 7.9 Costa Rica
Panama -4.1 22.1 40.2 5.3 -4.6 12.3 6.9 Nicaragua
Caribbean -16.5 5.9 14.3 2.5 -2.8 0.8 5.1
El Salvador
Dominican Republic -23.1 26.0 12.4 2.0 -5.0 5.5 7.7
Centam & Caribbean
Haiti -3.6 38.3 7.2 2.2 8.1 6.4 8.5
Jamaica -33.8 5.3 20.9 -1.7 -1.8 8.7 8.4 Honduras
Puerto Rico -9.5 0.4 9.5 4.3 -3.3 -2.5 4.0 Trinidad and Tobago
Trinidad and Tobago -27.5 -6.8 47.4 -1.6 -0.4 1.1 1.6 Caribbean
Puerto Rico
10
-5 0 5 10 15
Notes and sources

5
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports.
-5
2012 2013 2014 2015
-10

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Trinidad and Tobago
Centam & Caribbean 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.8 Haiti
Central America 4.2 3.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.3 3.2
Guatemala
Belize 4.1 4.0 3.7 4.2 5.5 4.6 4.4
Costa Rica 4.3 4.1 3.6 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.4 Costa Rica
El Salvador 4.9 4.1 3.0 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 Belize
Guatemala 5.9 5.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.0 4.8 Nicaragua
Honduras 3.5 3.8 3.0 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.1
Central America
Nicaragua 5.4 5.1 4.4 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.6
Honduras
Panama 2.4 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2
Caribbean 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.4 El Salvador
Dominican Republic 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.4 3.3 2.6 2.5 Centam & Caribbean
Haiti 3.4 6.9 7.0 7.8 6.0 6.3 6.6 Dominican Republic
Jamaica 4.9 5.7 4.1 3.6 1.8 2.1 2.5
Caribbean
Puerto Rico - - - - - - -
Trinidad and Tobago 15.9 17.8 13.1 12.5 13.6 12.8 12.1 Jamaica
6 Panama
0 5 10 15
2012 2013 2014 2015
5 Notes and sources
Note: International reserves as months of imports.

Sources: National central banks.
4
2
External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nicaragua
Central America 31.0 29.2 28.2 29.5 29.9 30.1 29.7 Costa Rica
Belize 76.0 72.4 68.7 64.4 66.6 66.2 65.9
Central America
Costa Rica 27.9 24.9 27.3 32.6 35.7 34.9 36.0
El Salvador 54.7 53.2 51.8 56.1 57.4 58.7 58.6 Panama
Guatemala 13.0 13.4 11.8 12.5 13.1 12.4 12.0
Centam & Caribbean
Honduras 22.9 23.8 23.7 25.8 20.0 24.9 27.6
Nicaragua 46.4 46.1 43.4 42.5 41.6 38.4 37.8 Honduras
Panama 39.2 35.4 32.4 28.4 28.7 30.1 27.5
Dominican Republic
Caribbean 15.8 17.9 17.5 17.8 19.5 19.9 19.7
Dominican Republic 17.1 18.5 19.9 21.3 24.3 23.0 22.4 Caribbean
Haiti 18.2 13.0 8.8 13.4 16.6 18.1 17.8
Jamaica 91.4 107.0 99.3 96.9 106.1 114.6 114.6 Haiti
Puerto Rico - - - - - - - Trinidad and Tobago
Guatemala
45
0 15 30 45
2012 2013 2014 2015
Notes and sources
30 Note: External debt as % of GDP. In Belize, Dominican Republic,

Guatemala, Haiti and Nicaragua data refer to public external debt.
Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance
ministries.
15
0

FOCUSECONOMICS
Economic Release Calendar

Calendar November 2014
Date Country Event

11 November Costa Rica September Economic Activity
11 November Nicaragua September Economic Activity
13 November Panama October Consumer Prices
14 November Nicaragua September Merchandise Trade
15 November Dominican Republic October Consumer Prices
17 November Jamaica October Consumer Prices
25 November Panama September Economic Activity
26 November Belize October Consumer Prices
28 November El Salvador September Economic Activity (**)
30 November Dominican Republic Central Bank Meeting (**)
30 November Dominican Republic Q3 2014 National Accounts (*) (**)
2 December Costa Rica November Consumer Prices
5 December Nicaragua November Consumer Prices
6 December Guatemala November Consumer Prices (**)
6 December Guatemala November Remittances (**)
6 December Guatemala October Economic Activity (**)
8 December El Salvador November Consumer Prices (**)
(*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America | 13

FOCUSECONOMICS Costa Rica November 2014
Costa Rica
Outlook moderates
Costa Rica
 The economy has been losing momentum since Q3 last year.

GDP growth slowed from Q1’s 4.1% expansion to weaker 3.8% in
Q2, driven by falling investment and lower consumption. Growth
moderated in July and further in August, when it fell to the slowest
pace since April 2013. Rising prices, particularly administered
energy prices, reduced the country’s competitiveness and prompted
several foreign companies to ramp down operations in Costa Rica.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages In addition, rating agency Moody’s cut Costa Rican debt to junk
2010-12 2013-15 2016-18
status in September, citing the government’s failure to rein in the
Population (million): 4.6 4.8 5.0 fiscal deficit. The government will send a bill to congress in January
GDP (USD bn): 41.1 50.6 59.7
that seeks to reduce corporate tax evasion, simplify the personal
GDP per capita (USD): 8,938 10,603 12,021
GDP growth (%): 4.8 3.7 4.0 income tax, and eliminate exemptions.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.5 -5.8 -5.9
Inflation (%): 5.0 4.8 4.5
Current Account (% of GDP): -4.7 -5.0 -5.5
 The government is courting investors in the U.S., but those
External Debt (% of GDP): 28.3 35.5 34.6 initiatives will take time to bear fruit. FocusEconomics panelists see
the economy expanding 3.7% this year. For 2015, they see growth
also at 3.7%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s
projection.
 Inflation increased from 5.2% in September to 5.7% in October,

continuing the upward trajectory that has been in place since March
and reaching a 15-month high. Panelists see inflation ending 2014
at 5.5% and 2015 at 5.0%, which is unchanged from last month’s
estimate.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity growth slides to 16-month low in

Teresa Kersting
August
Economist
In August, economic activity rose 2.8% over the same month last year,
according to the monthly index of economic activity (IMAE, Indice Mensual
de Actividad Economica). The figure came in below the 3.1% expansion
Economic Activity | variation in % recorded in July and marked the lowest growth since April 2013. Ten of the
6.0 twelve components of the index registered deteriorations. While financial
Year-on-year
Annual average
intermediation, financial services and transportation tallied the fastest rates of
5.0 expansion, the manufacturing industry contracted.
4.0
Compared to the previous month, economic activity rose 0.24%, which was
%
slightly up from the 0.17% expansion recorded in July. Meanwhile, annual
average growth in economic activity inched down from July’s 4.1% to 3.9%
3.0
in August.
2.0
Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 The government expects the economy to expand 3.6% in 2014 and 3.4%
in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of trend-cycle
economic activity in %. expand 3.7% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For
Source: Costa Rica Central Bank (BCCR).
2015, participants project economic growth of also 3.7%, which is down 0.1
percentage points from last month’s Consensus.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises to over one-year high

Consumer prices dropped 0.29% in October over the previous month, which
came in slightly below September’s 0.14% decrease. The print marked
a second drop after 11 consecutive increases. According to the Statistics
Institute, the reading mainly reflects falling prices for electricity and some food
items.
Annual headline inflation jumped from September’s 5.2% to 5.7% in October,

the highest result in 15 months. As a result, inflation moved further above the
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
Central Bank’s tolerance margin of plus/minus 1.0 percentage point around
1.5 7.0
its 4.0% target. Annual average inflation inched up from September’s 4.1%
1.0 6.0 to 4.2%.
0.5 5.0 The core inflation index, which strips out short-term fluctuations in the
% % consumer price index, rose 0.30% over the previous month in October
0.0 4.0
(September: +0.12% month-on-month). Annual core inflation came in at 4.0%,
-0.5 3.0
which was slightly above September’s 3.9%.
Month-on-month (left scale)
Year-on-year (right scale)

-1.0 2.0 On 5 November, the Central Bank announced that the Base Rate will remain
Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14
at 7.20%, which represents the highest level since March last year. Since 9
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. October, the rate has been resting at the current level with the exception of a
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC).
one-week interruption, when it fell to 7.15%. The Base Rate, which constitutes
the main reference rate for loans and investments, is calculated by the Central
Bank as a weighted average of the rates given for deposits by financial
institutions for maturities of between 150 and 210 days.
The government projects inflation to end 2014 at 6.1% and sees it moderating
to between 3.0% and 5.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics panelists see inflation
ending 2014 at 5.5%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s
forecast. In 2015, the panel sees year-end inflation at 5.0%, which is
unchanged from last month’s estimate.

Economic Indicators | 2009 - 2018
Annual Data 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real Sector
Population (million) 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0
GDP per capita (USD) 6,586 8,063 9,004 9,746 10,530 10,434 10,846 11,354 12,018 12,690
GDP (USD bn) 29.4 36.6 41.3 45.3 49.6 49.8 52.5 55.6 59.7 63.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -0.7 4.9 4.2 5.2 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.1
Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.3 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.5 3.8 4.0
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -11.1 5.5 8.9 7.8 12.4 6.6 6.2 6.1 7.4 7.6
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 8.4 7.3 7.7 7.8 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -5.1 -4.1 -4.4 -5.4 -5.9 -6.1 -6.0 -5.9 -5.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 27.2 29.1 30.6 35.1 36.0 40.4 41.7 43.3 43.9 45.8
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (annual var. of M2 in %) 10.6 13.7 11.1 18.2 11.9 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 4.0 5.8 4.7 4.6 3.7 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.3
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop) 7.8 5.7 4.9 4.5 5.2 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4
Inflation (Core, annual var. in %, eop) 4.0 3.5 4.5 3.3 2.2 - - - - -
Inflation (PPI, annual var. in %, eop) -1.2 4.5 7.4 3.5 1.6 - - - - -
Basic Rate (in %, eop) 8.25 8.00 8.00 9.20 6.50 7.50 7.95 7.88 7.75 7.70
Exchange Rate (CRC per USD, eop) 555 504 506 513 501 547 567 571 580 587
Exchange Rate (CRC per USD, aop) 571 522 502 503 501 538 555 569 575 583
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -3.5 -5.4 -5.3 -4.9 -5.1 -5.0 -5.3 -5.5 -5.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.6 -1.3 -2.2 -2.4 -2.5 -2.6 -2.6 -3.0 -3.3 -3.6
Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.6 -4.2 -5.8 -6.2 -5.6 -7.0 -7.6 -8.4 -9.4 -10.3
Exports (USD bn) 8.8 9.4 10.4 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.6
Imports (USD bn) 11.4 13.6 16.2 17.6 18.0 19.0 19.9 21.4 23.1 24.8
Exports (annual var. in %) -7.6 7.6 10.2 9.8 1.5 3.4 3.0 5.0 5.1 6.7
Imports (annual var. in %) -26.0 19.3 19.1 8.6 2.3 5.4 4.8 7.6 7.7 7.7
International Reserves (USD bn) 4.1 4.6 4.8 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 6.8 6.7
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.3 4.1 3.6 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.5 3.2
External Debt (USD bn) 8.2 9.1 11.3 14.8 17.7 17.4 18.9 20.0 20.8 21.0
External Debt (% of GDP) 27.9 24.9 27.3 32.6 35.7 34.9 36.0 36.0 34.9 32.9
Quarterly Data Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.3 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.6 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.5
Monthly Data Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14
Economic Activity (IMAE, annual var. in %) 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.8 - -
Economic Activity (IMAE, mom s.a. var. in %) 0.11 0.33 0.40 0.31 0.23 0.17 0.17 0.24 - -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.75 0.66 0.62 1.14 0.53 0.38 0.91 0.33 -0.14 -0.29
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %) 3.1 2.7 3.3 3.7 4.2 4.6 5.2 5.5 5.2 5.7

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance
1 | Real GDP | 2000-2018 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 11-Q4 15 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
10 9 Real GDP Fiscal Balance

Costa Rica
var. in % % of GDP
Latin America
World Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015
Acobo 3.9 4.1 -5.8 -6.0
5 6 Barclays Capital 3.5 3.5 - -
BNCR 3.5 3.5 -6.1 -6.6
CABI 3.8 3.8 -5.7 -5.7
CONAE 4.0 4.3 -5.2 -5.0
0 3 Deutsche Bank 3.6 3.6 - -
Ecoanálisis 3.5 3.2 -6.2 -6.5
Costa Rica EIU 3.8 4.2 -5.7 -6.2
Latin America
World Frontier Strategy Group 3.7 4.1 - -
-5 0 Icefi 3.6 3.4 -6.2 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15
INS Valores 4.0 4.0 -6.0 -6.3
JPMorgan 3.8 - - -
LAFISE 2.9 2.6 -5.9 -6.6
3 | GDP 2014 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts Scotiabank 3.9 4.1 - -
Summary
6 6
Maximum Maximum Minimum 2.9 2.6 -6.2 -6.6
Consensus
Consensus Maximum 4.0 4.3 -5.2 -5.0
Minimum Minimum
5 5
Median 3.8 3.8 -5.9 -6.2
Consensus 3.7 3.7 -5.9 -6.1
History
4 4 30 days ago 3.7 3.8 -5.7 -5.9
60 days ago 3.7 3.8 -5.7 -5.9
90 days ago 3.7 3.9 -5.4 -5.5
3 3 Additional Forecasts
Government (Sep. 2014) 3.6 3.4 - -
IMF (Oct. 2014) 3.6 3.6 - -
2 2 World Bank (June 2014) 3.7 4.3 - -
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
5 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
10 2
Costa Rica
Latin America
0
8
-2
-4
6
-6
Costa Rica
Latin America
4 -8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notes and sources

7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
9 -4 General:
2014 2015
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All
real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto
Nacional de Estadistica y Censos de Costa Rica) and the Central Bank
8 (BCCR, Banco Central de Costa Rica). See below for details. Forecasts
-5 based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: INEC.

7
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: INEC.
-6 3 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
6 4 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEC.
2014 2015 6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCCR.
7 Unemployment, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
5 -7 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2014
and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate
9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2018 | in % 10 | Interest Rate | 2000 - 2018 | in % Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate
15 20 CPI Exchange Rate

Costa Rica variation in % CRC per USD
Latin America Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015
Acobo 5.5 4.5 539 550
10 15 Barclays Capital 5.4 5.0 - -
BNCR 5.0 5.0 - -
CABI 5.5 5.5 535 560
CONAE 5.3 5.0 - -
5 10 Deutsche Bank - - - -
Ecoanálisis 6.2 5.8 557 602
Costa Rica EIU 6.5 5.1 545 550
Latin America Frontier Strategy Group 5.1 4.8 552 560
0 5 Icefi 4.7 4.1 - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
INS Valores 5.0 5.5 550 575
JPMorgan - - - -
LAFISE 6.0 4.3 555 572
11 | Inflation | evolution of forecast 12 | Interest Rate | evolution of fcst Scotiabank 5.3 5.8 - -
5.6 9
Summary
2014 2015 2014 2015 Minimum 4.7 4.1 535 550
Maximum 6.5 5.8 557 602
5.4 Median 5.4 5.0 550 560
8
Consensus 5.5 5.0 547 567
5.2 History
7 30 days ago 5.4 5.0 547 565
5.0
60 days ago 5.6 5.1 546 566
90 days ago 5.3 5.0 542 557
6 Additional Forecasts
4.8 Government (Sep. 2014) 6.1 3.0-5.0 - -
IMF (Oct. 2014) 5.5 4.0 - -
4.6 5
13 | Exchange Rate | CRC per USD 14 | Current Account | % of GDP
600 5
Costa Rica
Latin America
500 0
400 -5
300 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 Notes and sources
General:
15 | CRC per USD | evol. of fcst 16 | Current Account | evol. of fcst Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated.
All monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistical
580 -4.4 Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos de Costa Rica),
2014 2015 2014 2015 the Central Bank (BCCR, Banco Central de Costa Rica) and Thomson
Reuters. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
Consensus Forecast.
560 -4.7
9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
Source: INEC.
10 Interest rate, monthly basic rate in % (eop). Source: BCCR.
540 -5.0
11 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
months.
12 Interest rate, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
520 -5.3 months.
13 Exchange rate, CRC per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.
14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCCR.
15 Exchange rate, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
500 -5.6 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 16 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015
forecasts during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Costa Rica in the Region

Official name: Republic of Costa Rica Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: San José (0.4m)
Other cities: Alajuela (0.3m) Costa Rica
Desamparados (0.2m) 6.5%
Costa Rica
Area (km2): 51,100 13.0%
Population (million, 2013): 4.8 Other

Other Guatemala 27.0%
Population density (per km2, 2013): 93.1 33.2% 21.2%
Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.24 Puerto
Rico
Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 78.23 18.5%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2011 est.): 3.7

Panama
Language: Spanish Haiti 11.2%
14.1%
Measures: Metric system Honduras
11.1%
Dominican
Republic
Dominican Guatemala
Time: GMT-6 Republic 14.1%
16.2%
14.0%
Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2013)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 19.9 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 146 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12
100 120
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 46.0
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 9.7 Agriculture Net Exports
80 90
Energy (2010)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 87.0 60
Manufacturing
60
Investment
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 187

Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 9.5
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 8.5 40 Other Industry 30
Consumption
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 48.7
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 7.0 20 0 Private
Services
Consumption
0 -30
Transportation (2013)
Airports: 161
Railways (km): 278
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 39,018
Waterways (km): 730 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Caldera, Puerto Limón
Other
4.0%
Political Data Panama
5.1%
Other
13.1%
President: Luis Guillermo Solís Mexico

6.6%
Last elections: 6 April 2014 Other
LatAm
U.S.A.
38.9%
Next elections: February 2018 22.8%

Exports Imports U.S.A.
Other
Central Bank President: Olivier Castro Pérez LatAm
49.8%
15.2%
Asia ex-
China
Japan
Other EU- 8.2%
11.1%
Netherlands 27 EU-27
7.5%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 10.5% 7.0%
Agency Rating Outlook

Moody’s: Ba1 Stable
Primary products | share in %
S&P: BB Stable
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Stable
Food Other
Other 11.1%
8.3%
Strengths Weaknesses 12.7%
Mineral
Food Fuels
31.6% 11.0%
• Highly skilled labor force • Small domestic market

• Enthusiastic advocate of • Lack of investment in
Exports Imports
regional free trade transport infrastructure
• Advanced telecommunicatons • Highly dependent on

network imported oil Manufact.
• OECD membership expected • Recurrent border conflict Products
55.8% Manufact.
Products
for 2015 with Nicaragua 69.5%

FOCUSECONOMICS Dominican Republic November 2014
Dominican Rep.
Outlook improves
Dominican Republic
 Preliminary data show that economic growth remained buoyant in

the third quarter, driven by strong manufacturing and services. The
economy is benefiting from low oil prices, which helps reduce the
country’s current account deficit and is expected to cut the oil bill
next year by USD 600 million.
 Against the backdrop of strong third quarter GDP figures,

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists raised their growth
forecast. The panel now expects the economy to expand 4.4% this
2010-12 2013-15 2016-18
Population (million): 10.0 10.4 10.7 year. For 2015, the panel sees economic growth of 4.5%, which is up
GDP (USD bn): 57.5 64.8 76.4 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
GDP growth (%): 4.6 4.5 4.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.1 -3.2 -2.7  Inflation inched up from 2.8% in September to 2.9% in October. On
Public Debt (% of GDP): 26.1 37.2 39.3
Inflation (%): 6.1 4.1 4.0
31 October, the Central Bank decided to maintain its monetary policy
Current Account (% of GDP): -7.4 -4.0 -3.3 rate at 6.25%. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to close
External Debt (% of GDP): 19.9 23.2 21.3
2014 at 4.2%. For 2015, the panel also expects inflation of 4.2%, which
is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
REAL SECTOR | Economy records strong growth in the first nine months
Dirina Mançellari
According to preliminary data from the Central Bank, the economy grew 7.0%
Economist
in the January-September period over the same period last year. The figure
marked a noticeable improvement over the 3.7% growth recorded in the same
period last year.
January-September’s figure was driven by an improvement in most of the

sectors of the economy. Manufacturing expanded 5.7% over the same period
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % last year (Jan-Sep 2013: +3.9% year-on-year). In addition, agriculture rose
9.0 5.4%, which was an improvement over the 1.6% expansion observed in the
same period last year.
6.0 However, on a quarterly basis, the economy grew 6.6% in Q3 over the same
period last year. The figure marked a slight slowdown from the 6.7% expansion
%
observed in the second quarter and recorded the slowest growth pace since
3.0
Q4 2013.
The government’s 2015 budget projects that the economy will grow 4.6% in
0.0
Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 2014 and 5.0% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants
are less optimistic than the government and see the economy growing 4.4%
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Dominican Republic Central Bank and FocusEconomics Consensus
in 2014, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For
Forecast. 2015, panelists expect economic growth to pick up to 4.5%, which is up 0.1
percentage points from last month’s estimate.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation reaches lowest level in eight months

In October, consumer prices fell 0.08% over the previous month, which
contrasted the 0.19% increase recorded in September. The figure marked

the steepest decrease in a year. According to the Central Bank, the decrease
mainly reflected lower prices for clothing and footwear as well as for transport.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index Annual headline inflation inched up from 2.8% in September to 2.9% in
1.5 6.0
October. Annual average inflation edged down from 3.5% in September to
3.3% in October, which marked the lowest rate since April 2010. As a result,
Year-on-year (right scale)
1.0 5.0 inflation is below the lower bound of Central Bank’s tolerance margin of plus/
% % minus 1.0 percentage points around its 4.5% target rate.
0.5 4.0
At its meeting on 31 October, the Central Bank maintained its monetary policy
0.0 3.0 rate at 6.25%, which followed a similar decision in September. The Bank
decided to keep its rate on hold, taking into consideration the latest economic
-0.5 2.0
developments in the developed economies as well as subdued inflationary
pressure on the domestic front.
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Dominican Republic Central Bank. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to end
the year at 4.2%, which is down 0.1 percentage points over last month’s
projection. For 2015, panelists project inflation also at 4.2%, which is also
down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s Consensus.

Annual Data 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 48.2 53.8 58.5 60.3 62.0 64.2 68.3 71.9 76.2 81.2
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -14.0 18.3 -2.7 -2.9 4.8 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 14.3 10.0 10.2 9.3 10.7 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 5.8 6.2 7.8 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 1.4 6.3 8.5 3.7 4.8 3.3 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0
Overnight Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.00 5.00 6.75 5.00 6.25 6.08 6.19 5.71 5.63 5.58
Exchange Rate (DOP per USD, eop) 36.1 37.3 38.7 40.4 42.7 43.9 45.0 46.3 47.2 48.0
Exchange Rate (DOP per USD, aop) 35.9 36.8 38.0 39.2 41.7 43.4 44.3 45.6 46.7 47.6
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 5.5 6.8 8.5 9.1 9.7 10.2 11.1 12.0 13.1 14.3
Imports (USD bn) 12.3 15.5 17.4 17.8 16.9 17.8 19.2 20.7 22.5 24.5
Exports (annual variation in %) -18.7 23.2 25.7 6.8 6.4 5.6 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.3
Imports (annual variation in %) -23.1 26.0 12.4 2.0 -5.0 5.5 7.7 8.2 8.3 9.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.4 6.0 5.6 - -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.23 0.34 0.52 0.43 0.02 0.02 0.36 0.39 0.19 -0.08
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.9


Dominican Republic Dominican Republic variation in % % of GDP
Latin America
World
World
10 6 Banco León 3.8 3.7 - -
CABI 4.0 4.0 -3.1 -3.0
CONAE 3.1 3.6 -3.6 -3.4
5 4 EIU 5.1 4.6 -2.6 -2.4
Frontier Strategy Group 6.4 6.7 - -
JPMorgan 5.0 - - -
0 2 Polinomics 3.5 4.1 - -
Scotiabank 4.5 5.0 - -
Summary
-5 0 Minimum 3.1 3.6 -3.6 -3.4
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Maximum 6.4 6.7 -2.6 -2.4
Median 4.0 4.2 -3.1 -3.0
Consensus 4.4 4.5 -3.1 -2.9
3 | GDP 2014 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts History
30 days ago 4.1 4.4 -3.2 -2.9
8 8
60 days ago 3.8 4.0 -3.3 -2.9
Maximum Maximum 90 days ago 3.8 4.0 -3.3 -2.9
Consensus Consensus
Minimum
Additional Forecasts
Minimum
World Bank (June 2014) 4.0 4.2 - -
6 6
IMF (Oct. 2014) 5.3 4.2 - -
CEPAL (Aug. 2014) 5.0 - - -
4 4
2 2
20 2
Dominican Republic Dominican Republic
Latin America
Latin America
0
15
-2
-4
10
-6
5 -8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notes and sources

15.0 -2.0 General:

2014 2015 2014 2015 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All
real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRD, Banco Central de
la Republica Dominicana) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
14.5 -2.5 See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus
Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCRD.

14.0 -3.0
Source: BCRD.
3 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
13.5 -3.5 4 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BCRD.
6 Balance of general government as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
13.0 -4.0 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 8 Balance of general government as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and
2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.

9 | Inflation | in % 10 | Interest Rate | in % Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate
50 30 CPI Exchange Rate

Dominican Republic
Dominican Republic
variation in % DOP per USD
Latin America Latin America Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015
40
Banco León 4.5 4.0 43.5 43.6
20 CABI 4.5 4.5 44.0 45.5
30 CONAE 4.5 4.4 - -
EIU 3.5 3.7 44.0 45.9
Frontier Strategy Group - - 43.8 45.0
20
10 JPMorgan - - - -
Polinomics 4.2 4.3 44.0 45.0
10 Scotiabank 4.2 4.0 44.0 45.0
Summary
0 0 Minimum 3.5 3.7 43.5 43.6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 Maximum 4.5 4.5 44.0 45.9
Median 4.4 4.2 44.0 45.0
Consensus 4.2 4.2 43.9 45.0
11 | Inflation | evolution of forecast 12 | Interest Rate | evol. of forecast History
30 days ago 4.3 4.3 43.9 44.9
4.8 6.5
60 days ago 4.3 4.3 44.0 44.9
2014 2015 2014 2015 90 days ago 4.3 4.3 44.2 45.6
4.6 6.0
IMF (Oct. 2014) 4.5 4.0 - -
Central Bank Target 4.5±1.0 - -
4.4 5.5
4.2 5.0
4.0 4.5
13 | Exchange Rate | DOP per USD 14 | Current Account | % of GDP
50 5
Dominican Republic
Latin America
40
0
30
-5
20
10 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notes and sources
15 | DOP per USD | evolution of fcst 16 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

General:
46 -3.5 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRD,
2014 2015 Banco Central de la Republica Dominicana) and Thomson Reuters.
Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
45
-4.0 9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
Source: BCRD.
10 Interest rate, overnight rate in % (eop). Source: BCRD.
44
11 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
months.
-4.5 12 Interest rate, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
43 months.
13 Exchange rate, DOP per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.
2014 2015 14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCRD.
42 -5.0 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Dominican Republic in the Region

Official name: Dominican Republic Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Santo Domingo (1.0m)
Other cities: Santiago de los
Caballeros (0.7m) Dominican
Dominican
Concepción de la Vega (0.4m) Republic
14.0% Republic
15.7%
Area (km2): 48,670
Other
Population (million, 2013): 10.3 Other
31.0% 27.2%
Population density (per km2, 2013): 20.9
Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.3 Guatemala Puerto
21.2%
Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 77.8 Rico
18.6%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 9.9
Panama
Language: Spanish El Salvador 11.2%
8.6%
Measures: Metric system Haiti Guatemala
Honduras 14.1% Costa Rica
Time: GMT-4 11.1% 13.1%
14.2%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 88.4 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12
100 120
80 90
Energy (2011)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 16.0 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Government
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 0.1
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 120 20 0 Private
Services
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 20.6 Consumption
0 -30
Airports: 36
Railways (km): 142
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Santo Domingo, Haina Primary markets | share in %
Other
11.2%
Political Data Other
13.1%
President: Danilo Medina Mexico

5.8%
Last elections: 20 May 2012 Haiti U.S.A.
16.8% 39.4%
Next elections: 2016 Exports U.S.A.
Venezuela
7.0% Imports
49.6%
Central Bank President: Héctor Valdez Albizu
Other
LatAm Other
7.7% LatAm
Asia ex- 14.8%
Japan
EU-27 China EU-27
6.1% 9.6%
8.5% 10.2%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Moody’s: B1 Stable
S&P: B+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: B Stable
Other
Other 2.0%
Food
Strengths Weaknesses Food
5.7%
14.1%

25.3%

• Membership of DR-CAFTA • Widespread poverty
facilitates access to U.S. market • Large influx of Haitian
• Diversified economic structure immigrants poses integration

Exports Mineral
Fuels
Imports
• Dynamic tourism sector challenges 23.7%
Manufact.
Products
• Highly dependent on energy 60.2%
Manufact.
x imports Products
69.0%

FOCUSECONOMICS Guatemala November 2014
Guatemala
Outlook improves
Guatemala
 Guatemala’s economy accelerated in the second quarter and more

recent data point to continued growth in the second half of the year.
Economic activity has recorded strong results and remittances, an
important source of income for Guatemalan households, have been
on an upward trend. The pick-up in remittances has been accredited
to the stronger United States economy, which has benefitted
Guatemalans abroad.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2010-12 2013-15 2016-18
 Robust economic data continues to strengthen the country’s
Population (million): 14.7 15.9 17.1 outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand
GDP (USD bn): 46.5 57.9 70.6 3.6% this year. For 2015, panelists also expect economic growth of
GDP growth (%): 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.6%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Inflation (%): 4.6 3.9 4.3
 Inflation ticked up from 3.5% in September to 3.6% in October.
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.5 -2.9 -3.0 Inflation has remained within the Central Bank’s target range of plus/
minus 1.0 percentage points around its target of 4.0% for the entirety
of 2014 thus far. Panelists see inflation closing the year at 3.6%. For
2015, the panel expects inflation to close the year at 4.3%, which is
unchanged from last month’s projection.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity eases slightly from seven-year high

Angela Bouzanis
In September, economic activity increased 4.7% over the same month last
Economist
year, according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IMAE, Indice
Mensual de la Actividad Economica). The expansion was a slight deceleration
from August’s 4.8% rise, which had represented the largest expansion in
seven years; howeverm it still indicated robust growth in the Guatemalan
Economic Activity | variation in %
economy. September’s figure marked the sixth consecutive month of above
5.0
Year-on-year
4.0% growth.
Annual average
4.0
As a result, annual average growth in economic activity inched up from 3.9%
%
in August to 4.0% in September.
3.0 The Central Bank expects the economy to grow between 3.3% and 3.9%
in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see GDP
growing 3.6% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For
2.0 2015, panelists also expect the economy to expand 3.6%, which is up 0.1
Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14
percentage points from last month’s projection.
economic activity in %.
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations. MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation ticks up in October
In October, consumer prices rose 0.15% over the previous month, which
was above the 0.05% increase recorded in September. Consumer prices
increased in almost every sub-category of the index, with only transportation
and housing posting decreases.
Annual headline inflation ticked up from 3.5% in September to 3.6% in

October. Inflation still remains anchored within the Central Bank’s tolerance

Inflation | Consumer Price Index margin of plus/minus 1.0 percentage points around its target of 4.0%. Annual
0.9 6.0 core consumer prices stabilized at September’s 2.1% increase.
0.6 5.0
At its 24 September monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank decided to
%
leave the policy interest rate unchanged at 4.50%.
%
0.3 4.0
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation at 3.6% by the
end of 2014, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
0.0 3.0
In 2015, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to
Year-on-year (right scale) increase to 4.3%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
-0.3 2.0
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Growth in remittances slows in October

Source: National Statistics Institute. In October, remittances from workers abroad rose 4.3% over the same month
last year, reaching USD 501 million. October’s figure came in markedly below
the 9.1% rise observed in September.
Remittances | in USD
525 5.5
Monthly remittances in USD million (left scale)
In the 12 months up to October, remittances matched September’s record
12-m remittances in USD billion (right scale) high of USD 5.5 billion. October’s result marked an 8.2% increase over the
475 5.2
same period last year (September: +9.2% year-on-year).
425 4.9 Remittances account for nearly 10% of the country’s GDP and are an important
source of income for Guatemalan households. Given their significance to the
375 4.6
economy, remittances are one of the key drivers of private consumption in the
country. The Central Bank expects remittances to grow around 7.2% this year.
325 4.3
Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see total consumption
expanding 3.9% in 2014, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s
Note: Monthly remittances in USD million and 12-month sum of remittances in
USD billion. estimate. For 2015, panelists also expect total consumption to rise 3.9%,
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.
which is down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s projection.

Annual Data 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 37.9 41.5 47.7 50.4 54.0 58.0 61.7 65.7 70.4 75.7
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -13.1 -2.1 7.1 3.6 1.8 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 5.1
Industry (annual var. in %) -0.9 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 10.0 11.3 10.7 9.8 9.0 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) -0.3 5.4 6.2 3.5 4.4 3.6 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2
Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, eop) 0.9 3.1 5.3 3.4 2.6 - - - - -
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.50 4.50 5.50 5.00 5.00 4.50 4.63 4.25 4.13 4.00
Exchange Rate (GTQ per USD, eop) 8.33 8.02 7.81 7.90 7.84 7.81 7.89 7.99 8.05 8.06
Exchange Rate (GTQ per USD, aop) 8.14 8.06 7.79 7.83 7.86 7.77 7.83 7.94 8.02 8.06
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.8 -1.4 -3.4 -2.6 -2.8 -2.8 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -2.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.3 -0.6 -1.6 -1.3 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 -2.0 -2.2 -2.2
Exports (USD bn) 7.3 8.5 10.5 10.1 10.2 10.8 11.5 12.4 13.5 14.8
Imports (USD bn) 10.6 12.8 15.5 15.8 16.4 17.8 19.2 20.8 22.6 24.5
Exports (annual var. in %) -6.4 16.4 23.5 -3.8 1.0 6.1 6.6 7.9 8.6 9.3
Imports (annual var. in %) -20.9 20.8 21.1 1.9 3.8 8.6 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.5
Remittances (USD bn) 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.1 - - - - -
Economic Activity (IMAE, annual var. in %) 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.7 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.25 0.20 0.23 0.19 0.22 0.53 0.57 0.42 0.05 0.15
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 4.1 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.5 3.6
Remittances (annual variation in %) 10.1 9.3 8.3 8.7 3.6 15.5 14.4 4.5 9.1 4.3

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2018 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 11-Q4 15 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance

var. in % % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015
ASIES 3.2 3.5 -2.4 -2.5
4 4 CABI 3.9 3.9 -2.2 -2.5
Camara de Comercio 3.6 3.5 -2.0 -1.9
CIEN 3.4 3.4 -3.2 -4.0
CONAE 3.4 3.6 -2.8 -2.6
0 2 Deutsche Bank 3.4 3.7 - -
EIU 3.8 3.5 -2.3 -2.4
Guatemala Guatemala
Latin America Latin America
Icefi 3.3 3.5 -2.4 -
World World JPMorgan 4.0 - - -
-4 0 Summary
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Minimum 3.2 3.4 -3.2 -4.0
Maximum 4.0 3.9 -2.0 -1.9
Median 3.4 3.5 -2.4 -2.5
3 | GDP 2014 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts Consensus 3.6 3.6 -2.5 -2.6
History
6 6
Maximum Maximum 30 days ago 3.6 3.5 -2.6 -2.7
Consensus Consensus 60 days ago 3.6 3.5 -2.7 -2.7
Minimum Minimum 90 days ago 3.4 3.5 -2.8 -3.0
5 5
Cen. Bank (Sep. 2014) 3.3-3.9 - - -
IMF (October 2014) 3.4 3.7 - -
4 4
World Bank (June 2014) 3.4 3.5 - -
3 3
2 2
5 | Industry | variation in % 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
10 0
-1
5
-2
0
-3
-5
-4
Guatemala Guatemala
Latin America
Latin America
-10 -5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notes and sources

7 | Industry | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
5 -2.4 General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All real
2014 2015
sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional
de Estadistica de Guatemala) and the Central Bank (Banguat, Banco de
-2.6 Guatemala). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
4 Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: INE.

-2.8
Source: INE.
3 3 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-3.0 4 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Industry, annual variation in %. Source: INE.
2014 2015 6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Banguat.
7 Industry, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
2 -3.2 months.

9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2018 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 11-Q4 15 | in % Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate
15 16
CPI Exchange Rate
Guatemala variation in % GTQ per USD
10 12 ASIES 3.8 4.5 7.80 7.85
CABI 3.9 4.7 7.80 7.90
Camara de Comercio 3.3 3.7 7.77 7.81
5 8 CIEN - - - -
CONAE - - - -
Deutsche Bank 3.5 4.3 - -
0 4 EIU 3.8 4.8 7.89 8.01
Icefi 3.2 3.9 - -
Guatemala
JPMorgan - - - -
Latin America
-5 0 Summary
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Minimum 3.2 3.7 7.77 7.81
Maximum 3.9 4.8 7.89 8.01
Median 3.7 4.4 7.80 7.88
11 | Inflation 2014 | evol. of forecast 12 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst Consensus 3.6 4.3 7.81 7.89
History
7 7
Maximum 30 days ago 4.1 4.3 7.84 7.92
Maximum Consensus 60 days ago 4.3 4.4 7.84 7.92
Consensus Minimum
Minimum
90 days ago 4.2 4.4 7.84 7.90
6 6
Central Bank Target 4.0±1.0 4.0±1.0 - -
IMF (Oct. 2014) 3.5 4.3 - -
5 5
4 4
3 3
13 | Exchange Rate | GTQ per USD 14 | Current Account | % of GDP
8.5 4
Guatemala
Latin America
8.3
0
8.1
7.9
-4
7.7
7.5 -8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notes and sources
15 | GTQ per USD | evolution of fcst 16 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

General:
8.1 -2.6 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
2014 2015 (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica de Guatemala) and the Central
Bank (Banguat, Banco de Guatemala). See below for details. Forecasts
-2.9 based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
8.0
Source: INE.
-3.2
10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
(eop). Source: Banguat.
7.9 11 Inflation, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-3.5 12 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
13 Exchange rate, GTQ per USD (eop). Source: Banguat.
14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: Banguat.
2014 2015 15 Exchange rate, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last
7.8 -3.8 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Guatemala in the Region

Official name: Republic of Guatemala Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Guatemala City (4.1m)
Other cities: Quetzaltenango (0.4m)
Villa Nueva (0.3m)
Guatemala
Area (km2): 108,890 Guatemala 13.9%
20.9%
Population (million, 2013): 15.5
Other
Population density (per km2, 2013): 139 Other
31.2% 27.7%
Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.9
Puerto
Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 71.7 Rico
Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 24.1 Haiti
18.9%
14.1%
Language: Spanish, Amerindian
Panama
languages El Salvador 10.4%
8.7%
Measures: Metric System Dominican
Republic
Dominican
Republic
Honduras Costa Rica
Time: GMT-6 11.0% 14.1% 12.5% 16.6%
Economic Structure
100 120
Agriculture Net Exports
80 90
Energy (2010)
60 60
Government
Consumption
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 70.8 20 0 Private
Services
0 -30
Airports: 291
Railways (km): 332
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Puerto Quetzal
Other
12.0% Other
Political Data 6.9%
Mexico
President: Otto Pérez Molina Mexico
5.4%
11.3%
Last elections: 11 September 2011 Honduras

U.S.A.
39.6%
U.S.A.
38.0%
Next elections: 13 September 2015 7.8%
Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Edgar Baltazar Barquín Other
El Salvador LatAm
11.0% 23.3%
Other EU-27 EU-27

LatAm China
6.7% 6.4%
17.5% 7.4% Other Asia
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings ex-Japan
6.7%
S&P: BB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB Stable
Other Other
9.4% Food 2.7%

• Membership of DR-CAFTA • Widespread criminal activity
Food Mineral
facilitates access to US market • Deficient infrastructures 42.3% Exports Fuels Imports
19.3%
• Monetary discipline provides • High illiteracy rate Manufact.
economic stability • Weak financial sector Products
40.9%
Manufact.
• Strong tourism and agricultural
Products
64.7%
potential Ores &
Metals
. 7.5%

FOCUSECONOMICS Panama November 2014
Panama
Outlook stable
Panama
 GDP growth accelerated in Q2 after hitting a five-year low in Q1 and

more recent data suggest that the downward trend in economic
activity is bottoming out. The economy had been losing steam amid
a slowdown in activities linked to the Panama Canal expansion and
the conclusion of several large state-funded infrastructure projects,
but now appears to be stabilizing. The upgraded Canal is on track
to begin operations in early 2016. In the meantime, the economy
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages will benefit from an ongoing process of diversification, with service-
2010-12 2013-15 2016-18 oriented sectors such as trade and logistics, as well as banking and
Population (million): 3.6 3.8 4.0 insurance, gaining strength.
GDP (USD bn): 33.3 46.9 62.1
GDP growth (%): 8.9 7.0 6.5  While the double-digit growth rates of years past are no longer
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.9 -2.8 -1.0 attainable, the outlook is fairly positive. FocusEconomics Consensus
Inflation (%): 5.0 3.5 3.4 Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 6.6% in 2014. For
Current Account (% of GDP): -11.6 -9.9 -7.8 2015, the panel forecasts growth of 6.2%, which is unchanged from
last month’s forecast.
 Inflation increased from 2.1% in August to 2.3% in September.

However, the price control system introduced by President Juan
Carlos Varela this summer is containing inflationary pressures. The
panel sees inflation ending both 2014 and 2015 at 3.6%.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity stabilizes in August

Carl Kelly
Economist In August, the monthly indicator for economic activity (IMAE, Indice Mensual
de Actividad Economica) expanded 4.9% over the same month last year,
which matched the growth registered in July (previously reported: +4.3%
year-on-year). According to the National Comptroller’s Office, the increase
Economic Activity | variation in %
in August was driven by growth in several sectors of the economy, including
12.0
transport, warehousing and communications, fishing, financial services
Year-on-year Annual average
and tourism. Meanwhile, the construction sector and mining and quarrying
industry showed some growth despite the ongoing slowdown in work related
9.0
to the Panama Canal expansion project.
%
6.0
On a month-on-month basis, economic activity in August increased 0.75% in
seasonally-adjusted terms, which was below the 1.22% increase recorded
in July. Meanwhile, the overall trend continues to point downward; annual
3.0
average growth in economic activity inched down from 6.3% in July to 6.0% in
Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14
August, which represented the lowest reading since October 2010.
economic activity in %.
Source: National Comptroller’s Office and FocusEconomics calculations. The government expects economic growth to reach 7.0% in 2014 and 6.5%
in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that the
economy will grow 6.6% in 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points from
last month’s forecast. For 2015, the panel expects GDP to expand 6.2%,
which is unchanged from last month’s projection.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation picks back up in September

In September, consumer prices increased 0.33% over the previous month,
Inflation | Consumer Price Index which was slightly above the 0.13% increase recorded in August. According
1.0 6.0 to the National Comptroller’s Office (Contraloria General de la Republica),
the monthly increase in September was driven mainly by higher prices for
0.5 5.0 healthcare, as well as for food and beverages, despite the price control system
% % for basic food products that President Juan Carlos Varela introduced in July.
0.0 4.0
Annual inflation increased from 2.1% in August to 2.3% in September. The
recently-introduced price control system, however, has kept inflation more
-0.5 3.0
Month-on-month (left scale) in line with historically-low levels. Due to the country’s dollarized economy,
Year-on-year (right scale) authorities lack the freedom to use monetary policy or exchange rate
-1.0 2.0
Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 adjustments to reduce inflation.

Source: National Comptroller’s Office and FocusEconomics calculations. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to reach 3.6%
by the end of 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s
forecast. For 2015, the panel sees inflation at 3.6%, which is also down 0.1
percentage points from last month’s projection.

Annual Data 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 25.9 28.8 33.3 38.0 42.6 46.7 51.3 56.3 61.8 68.1
Total Consumption (annual var. in %) -1.7 25.4 16.6 -2.3 7.2 6.1 5.3 6.1 6.1 6.8
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) -6.2 11.6 19.9 16.1 16.6 11.0 7.7 7.2 7.2 6.9
Industry (annual var. in %) 7.7 0.2 13.7 13.9 19.0 7.9 5.7 6.0 6.1 7.3
Money (annual var. of M1 in %) 17.0 18.8 19.1 13.5 -10.2 - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, annual var. in %, eop) -6.7 3.9 11.9 4.7 0.2 - - - - -
1-5 Year Commercial Loan Rate (%, eop) 8.16 7.14 6.74 6.69 6.74 7.80 7.87 7.53 7.20 6.95
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 10.8 12.7 16.9 18.9 17.5 18.9 20.3 21.8 23.3 24.9
Imports (USD bn) 14.1 17.2 24.1 25.4 24.3 27.2 29.1 31.4 33.8 36.5
Exports (annual var. in %) 9.3 16.9 33.5 11.5 -7.2 7.9 7.7 7.1 6.9 6.8
Imports (annual var. in %) -4.1 22.1 40.2 5.3 -4.6 12.3 6.9 7.7 7.8 7.9
Monthly Data Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Economic Activity (IMAE, annual var. in %) 7.5 6.2 5.4 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.9 4.9 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.27 0.20 0.53 0.40 0.53 0.13 0.46 -0.85 0.13 0.33
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %) 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.4 2.2 2.1 2.3


Panama
Latin America
var. in % % of GDP
World Individual Forecasts 2014 2015 2014 2015
10 Banco de Crédito del Perú 6.0 5.8 - -
10 BBVA Research 7.0 - -2.7 -
Deutsche Bank 6.6 6.4 -1.9 0.2
5 EIU 6.5 5.4 -3.9 -2.5
5 HSBC 6.3 6.5 -3.1 -2.9
0 Icefi 7.9 8.0 -4.1 -
Panama JPMorgan 6.5 - - -
Latin America Panacamara 6.5 6.4 -3.8 -3.2
World
-5 0 Panama Econ. Insight 6.7 5.2 -3.9 -2.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Polinomics 6.0 - - -
Scotiabank 7.0 6.5 -2.5 -2.0
Summary
3 | GDP 2014 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2015 | evolution of forecasts Minimum 6.0 5.2 -4.1 -3.2
Maximum 7.9 8.0 -1.9 0.2
10 9
Maximum Median 6.5 6.4 -3.5 -2.3
Consensus Consensus 6.6 6.2 -3.2 -2.1
8 Minimum History
30 days ago 6.7 6.2 -3.4 -2.6
8
60 days ago 6.7 6.4 -2.9 -2.6
7
90 days ago 6.7 6.4 -2.8 -2.5
6 Government (Apr. 2014) 7.0 6.5 - -
6
IMF (Oct. 2014) 6.6 6.4 - -
Maximum 5 World Bank (June 2014) 6.8 6.2
Consensus
Minimum
4 4
15 2
0
12
-2
9
-4
6
-6
Panama Panama
3 -8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Notes and sources

4.7 -1.0 General:

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All real
2014 2015
sector data are from the National Comptroller’s Office (CGP, Contraloria
-1.5 General de la Republica) and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF,
Ministerio de Economia y Finanzas). See below for details. Forecasts
4.4 based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
-2.0
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CGP.
-2.5 Source: CGP.
4.1 3 GDP, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-3.0 5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: MEF.
2014 2015 6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: MEF.
3.8 -3.5 months.

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Current Account Balance
9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2018 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 11-Q4 15 | in % Consumer Price Index and Current Account Balance
15 14
CPI Current Account
Panama variation in % % of GDP
10 11 Banco de Crédito del Perú 3.5 3.3 - -
BBVA Research 4.1 - -7.2 -
Deutsche Bank 3.2 3.4 -10.8 -10.6
5 8 EIU 2.9 4.3 -9.2 -9.1
HSBC 3.5 3.2 -10.3 -10.6
0 5 Icefi 3.5 3.3 - -
JPMorgan - - - -
Panama
Panacamara 3.8 3.1 - -
Latin America
-5 2 Panama Econ. Insight 4.2 4.2 - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Polinomics 3.7 - - -
Scotiabank 4.0 4.0 -8.6 -7.0
Summary
11 | Inflation 2014 | evolution of fcst 12 | Inflation 2015 | evolution of fcst Minimum 2.9 3.1 -10.8 -10.6
Maximum 4.2 4.3 -7.2 -7.0
6 6 Maximum Median 3.5 3.4 -9.2 -9.9
Consensus
Consensus 3.6 3.6 -9.2 -9.3
Minimum
History
5
30 days ago 3.7 3.7 -9.4 -9.2
5
60 days ago 3.8 3.6 -8.6 -9.0
90 days ago 3.8 3.6 -8.6 -9.1
4
Government (Apr. 2014) 4.5 4.0 - -
4
IMF (Oct. 2014) 3.0 3.3 - -
3
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
2 3
13 | Current Account | % of GDP 14 | Trade Balance | USD billion
5 40
20
-5
-10
0
-15
Panama Trade Balance
Imports
Latin America
Exports
-20 -20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
15 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 16 | Trade Balance | evol. of fcst Notes and sources
-6 -5
General:
2014 2015 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2018 unless otherwise stated. All
-6 monetary and external sector data are from the National Comptroller’s
-7 Office (CGP, Contraloria General de la Republica). See below for details.
Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
-7
-8
10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
-8 (eop).
11 Inflation, evolution of 2014 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-9 12 Inflation, evolution of 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-9 13 Current account balance as % of GDP.
2014 2015
14 Trade balance, exports and imports in USD billion.
15 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015
-10 -10 forecasts during the last 18 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 16 Trade balance in USD billion, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts
during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Panama in the Region

Official name: Republic of Panama Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Ciudad de Panama (1.4 m)
Other cities: Colon (0.2 m)
Area (km2): 75,517 Panama
8.3% Panama
Population (million, 2013): 3.7 11.2%
Other
Pop. growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.4 Other
Guatemala
21.2%
27.0%
Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 81.2 34.6% Puerto
Rico
Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 7 18.5%
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system
Haiti
Time: GMT-5 14.1% Costa Rica
Dominican
13.0%
Honduras Republic
11.1% Dominican Guatemala 16.2%
Republic 14.1%
14.0%
Economic Structure
100 100
80 80
Energy (2010)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 41 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Government
Consumption
Services
Consumption
0 0
Airports: 118
Railways (km): 76.0
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Balboa, Colón, Cristóbal

14.3%
U.S.A.
19.5% U.S.A.
President: Juan Carlos Varela Costa Rica
23.0%
Last elections: 4 May 2014 6.4% Other

37.4%
Next elections: 2019 Other Exports Imports
Minister of Economy and Finance: Frank de Lima LatAm
11.2%
Canada
14.1%
EU-27
8.2%
Other Asia
ex-Japan
Asia ex- China 5.2%
Other EU-
Japan 6.2%
27
12.9% Netherlands LatAm
15.9%
5.7%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 20.0%

Moody’s: Baa2 Stable
S&P: BBB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB Stable
Other Other
1.6%
9.9%
Strengths Weaknesses
• Large international banking • Small domestic economy Manufact.

sector • Pronounced socio-economic Products
38.4%
• Ownership of the Canal ensures inequalities Food Exports Imports
54.3%
steady flow of income
• Competitive tax regime
Ores &

Metals Manufact.
5.7% Products
90.1%

Other Countries
FOCUSECONOMICS Belize November 2014
Belize
Outlook improves
Belize
 According to preliminary estimates released on 29 October,

imports expanded 9.6% annually in September, which marked an
acceleration over the 7.6% increase tallied in August. Domestic
exports plummeted 31.6% in September over the same month last
year, which largely contrasted the 38.8% jump tallied in the previous
month. The sharp drop was mainly attributable to the fact that there
were no shipments of crude oil in September, thereby confirming
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages the descending trend that has been recorded in oil exports in recent
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15 months.
Population (million): 0.3 0.3 0.4
GDP (USD bn): 1.3 1.5 1.7
 FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 2.4% in 2014.
GDP growth (%): 1.7 3.1 2.2 For 2015, the panel expects GDP to grow 2.8%, which is up 0.1
percentage points from last month’s estimate.
Inflation (%): 2.5 1.4 1.3
Current Account (% of GDP): -6.5 -1.9 -4.6  Inflation fell further from 0.9% in August to 0.7% in September.
Subdued commodity prices and the exchange rate peg are
Ricard Torné maintaining inflationary pressures contained. Panelists expect
Senior Economist inflation to average 1.7% in 2014. For 2015, the panel sees inflation
rising to 1.9%.
1 | GDP | variation in % 2 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 3 | Inflation | in %
15 5 15
Belize
Latin America
World
10 0 10
5 -5 5
0 -10 0
Belize
Belize
Latin America
Latin America
-5 -15 -5
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
4 | GDP | evolution of forecasts 5 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst 6 | Inflation | evolution of forecasts
3.2 -1.0 3.0

2014 2015
2.9
-1.5 2.5
2.6
-2.0 2.0
2.3
2014 2015
2014 2015
2.0 -2.5 1.5
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -1.2 1.5 -2.9 -1.7 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -1.8 -1.8
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) 4.2 2.3 6.4 -1.1 0.9 1.9 1.3 0.5 1.7 1.9
Weighted Average Lending Rate (%, eop) 14.20 14.30 14.10 14.00 13.78 13.02 11.99 11.12 11.13 11.44
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD m) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Exports (USD bn) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Imports (USD bn) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0
Exports (annual var. in %) 31.3 -0.4 12.8 -20.2 24.8 26.2 3.0 -2.1 8.3 8.6
Imports (annual var. in %) 10.0 4.9 22.8 -21.3 5.3 18.6 5.6 7.1 7.5 8.0
7 | Public Debt | % of GDP 8 | Current Account | % of GDP
110 10
100 0
90 -10
80 -20
Belize
Latin America
70 -30
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Notes and sources
9 | Trade Balance | USD billion 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst General:

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2015 unless otherwise stated. All data
1.5 -2
are from the Central Bank (CBB, Central Bank of Belize), International
Trade Balance Monetary Fund (IMF) and Statistical Institute of Belize (SIB). See below for
Imports details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Exports
1.0 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CBB.
-3 2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: CBB.
3 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
Source: SIB.
0.5 4 GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2014
-4 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
0.0 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
2014 2015 months.
7 Public debt, as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: CBB.
-0.5 -5 9 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: CBB.
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015

Fact Sheet
General Data Belize in the Region

Official name: Belize Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Belmopan (0.01m)
Other cities: Belize City (0.08m) Belize
0.5%
Belize
0.4%
Area (km2): 22,966
Puerto
Population density (per km2, 2013): 13.4 Guatemala
Rico
21.2%
18.5%
Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.9
Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 68.5 Other
39.2%
Other
37.8%
Language: English, Spanish, Creole Haiti
Dominican
Republic
Measures: Imperial system 14.1% 16.2%
Time: GMT-6
Dominican
Honduras Republic Costa Rica Guatemala
11.1% 14.0% 13.0% 14.1%
Economic Structure
100 120
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 3.1 Agriculture
Net Exports
80 90
Energy (2010)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 14.0 Manufacturing
60 60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 12.0 Investment
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 0.6 40 Other 30

Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 3.5 20 0
Total
Services Consumption
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 0.5
0 -30
Airports: 47
Waterways (km): 825
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Belize City, Big Creek Primary markets | share in %

Other 17.2% U.S.A.
22.8%
Prime Minister: Dean Barrow U.S.A.
31.8%
23.5%
Last elections: 7 March 2012

Next elections: February 2017 Exports Mexico
11.5%
Imports
Other EU-
Central Bank President: John Mencias LatAm
10.4%
27
7.1%
Other
Other EU- LatAm
27 13.2% Germany
U.K. 13.1% 14.9%
21.9% Asia ex-
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Japan
12.6%

Moody’s: Caa2 Stable
S&P: B- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: - -
Other
1.2%
Mineral
Strengths Weaknesses Manufact. Fuels

Products 17.4%
20.9%
• Low inflation figures • Small domestic market

Other
37.3%

• Political stability • Lack of infrastructure investment Food
46.7% Exports Imports
• Fast-growing tourism industry • Highly indebted
• High illiteracy rate
Agric.
Raw Mat.
Manufact.
31.1%
Products
45.3%

FOCUSECONOMICS El Salvador November 2014
El Salvador
Outlook stable
El Salvador
 Economic growth in El Salvador has remained sluggish in recent

years mainly due to structural weaknesses and external shocks
following the global financial crisis. Recent data confirm that the
economy is going through a period of subdued economic growth,
with August’s economic activity expanding at the weakest pace in
over four years. Meanwhile, the IMF noted that the government’s
goal of achieving a sustained 3.0% growth is feasible if supported
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages by, “far-reaching structural reforms.” The IMF, however, urged the
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
country to further reduce its fiscal deficit in order to guarantee long-
Population (million): 6.2 6.3 6.4 term fiscal sustainability.
GDP (USD bn): 20.7 22.8 25.2
GDP growth (%): 0.6 1.8 1.9  With no major developments on the horizon, growth prospects
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.4 -4.0 -3.6 remain stable. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see
Inflation (%): 4.0 2.7 1.5 the economy growing 2.0% in 2014. In 2015, the panel expects GDP
Current Account (% of GDP): -4.9 -4.2 -5.9 to expand 2.1%, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate.
Ricard Torné  Annual inflation rose from September’s 1.7% to 1.9% in October.
Senior Economist Forecast panelists expect that inflation will end 2014 at 2.1%. Next
year, the panel sees inflation at 2.4%.
10 0 15
El Salvador
El Salvador
Latin America
Latin America
World
10
5 -2
0 -4
0
El Salvador
Latin America
-5 -6 -5
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
2.3 -2.5 3.0

2014 2015
2.2 2.8
-3.0
2.1 2.6
2.0 2.4
-3.5
1.9 2.2
2014 2015
2014 2015
1.8 -4.0 2.0


Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 18.6 20.1 21.4 20.7 21.4 23.1 23.8 24.3 25.1 26.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 3.9 3.8 1.3 -3.1 1.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.1
Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.8 5.9 1.7 -9.2 2.2 2.5 2.5 0.8 2.1 2.6
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 12.4 7.7 -5.4 -19.2 2.4 13.8 -1.4 9.7 4.4 4.9
Money (annual var. of M2 in %) 10.5 17.4 -1.2 2.2 0.1 -2.3 1.0 2.2 - -
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 4.9 4.9 5.5 -0.2 2.1 5.1 0.8 0.8 2.1 2.4
Benchmark Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.39 4.24 5.21 3.25 1.79 1.36 2.57 2.85 3.51 3.58
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 3.7 4.0 4.6 3.9 4.5 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8
Imports (USD bn) 7.8 8.8 9.8 7.3 8.4 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.3 12.0
Exports (annual var. in %) 8.6 7.6 15.6 -16.7 16.4 18.0 0.6 2.8 2.6 3.3
7 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 8 | Current Account | % of GDP
10 2
El Salvador
Latin America
9 0
8 -2
7 -4
6 -6
El Salvador
Latin America
5 -8
Notes and sources
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
General:
9 | Trade Balance | USD billion 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst real, monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of El
Salvador (BCR, Banco Central de Reserva de El Salvador) and General
15 -4.0
Statistics Office (Digestyc, Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos).
Trade Balance See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus
Imports Forecast.
Exports
10
-4.5 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCR.
2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCR.
5 3 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
Source: Digestyc.
-5.0 4 GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
0 5 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2013
-5.5 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
-5 months.
2014 2015 7 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: Digestyc.
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCR.
-10 -6.0 9 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BCR.

Fact Sheet
General Data El Salvador in the Region

Official name: Republic of El Salvador Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: San Salvador (2.3m)
Other cities: Santa Ana (0.3m)
El Salvador
San Miguel (0.3m) El Salvador 6.3%
8.6%
Area (km2): 21,041
31.0%
Other
Puerto
Rico
Guatemala 31.9%
Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.3 21.2%
18.5%
Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 74.2

Language: Spanish Dominican
Measures: Metric system Honduras Haiti
Republic
16.2%
Costa Rica
Time: GMT-6 11.1%
Dominican
14.1%
13.0%
Republic Guatemala
14.0% 14.1%
Economic Structure
100 120
80 90
Energy (2010)
60 60
Government
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): -
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 43.2 20 0 Private
Services
0 -30
Airports: 68
Railways (km): 283
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Acajutla, Puerto Cutuco Primary markets | share in %
Other
Political Data Nicaragua
7.8%
Other
11.1%
6.0%
President: Salvador Sánchez Cerén Mexico
6.8%
Last elections: 2 February 2014 Guatemala
U.S.A.
37.9%
13.4%
Next elections: 2019 U.S.A. Guatemala
Exports 46.6% 9.7%
Imports
Central Bank Governor: Oscar Cabrera Melgar
Honduras
14.3%
Other
Other LatAm EU-27
China 5.5%
LatAm 23.1%
5.9%

S&P: BB- Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB- Negative
Food Other
Other 11.1%
8.3%
Mineral
Food Fuels
31.6% 11.0%
• Dollarization helps contain • Small domestic market

inflationary pressures • Vulnerability to external shocks
• Membership of DR-CAFTA • Low-skilled workforce Exports Imports
facilitates access to foreign

markets
Manufact.
• Strong influx of remittances Products
Manufact.
55.8%
partially
offset trade deficit Products
69.5%

FOCUSECONOMICS Haiti November 2014
Haiti
Outlook stable
Haiti
 Haiti’s economy picked up in 2013, confirming that it has finally

recovered from the devastating 2010 earthquake. The IMF recently
granted the government more time to implement the fiscal reforms
that were agreed upon under the country’s Extended Credit Facility.
If Haiti completes the required actions on the fiscal and structural
fronts by 28 December, it will receive the final disbursement under
the arrangement. Meanwhile, President Michel Martelly met German
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss increasing German investment
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15 in Haiti and the upcoming 2015 legislative elections.
Population (million): 9.6 10.0 10.5
GDP (USD bn): 6.3 7.3 9.0
GDP per capita (USD): 654 738 882
 As the results of the 2015 elections will not be known for some
GDP growth (%): 2.4 0.9 4.1 time and the necessary reforms have yet to be implemented, Haiti’s
economic outlook remains unchanged. FocusEconomics panelists
Inflation (%): 8.8 6.3 5.0 expect GDP to grow 3.9% this year. For 2015, the panel expects the
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.1 -3.8 -6.2 economy to expand 4.2%, which mirrors last month’s forecast.
Angela Bouzanis  Inflation rose from 5.1% in August to 5.3% in September. Inflation has
Economist been on an upward trend during 2014. Panelists see inflation closing
the year at 4.9%. In 2015, panelists project inflation of 5.0%.
10 4 40
Haiti
Latin America
30
5
0
20
0
10
-4
-5
Haiti 0
Latin America Haiti
Latin America
World
-10 -8 -10
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
6.0 -3 6.0
2014 2015
5.5
-4
5.5
5.0
-5
4.5
5.0
-6
4.0
2014 2015 2014 2015

3.5 -7 4.5

Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP per capita (USD) 511 623 671 668 672 754 787 841 873 933
GDP (USD bn) 4.8 5.9 6.5 6.6 6.6 7.5 7.8 8.4 9.0 9.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.3 3.3 0.8 3.1 -5.5 5.5 2.9 4.3 3.9 4.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 0.2 -2.8 -4.6 2.2 -3.6 -4.8 -6.7 -6.3 -5.6
Money (annual var. of M2 in %) 10.4 4.3 12.3 9.1 20.5 6.4 13.7 6.5 - -
Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) 12.4 7.9 19.8 -4.7 4.7 8.3 7.6 3.4 4.9 5.0
Market rate (%, eop) 27.0 27.0 17.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.5 8.0
Exchange Rate (HTG per USD, eop) 39.1 36.4 40.0 41.8 39.9 41.0 42.6 43.9 44.0 44.8
Exchange Rate (HTG per USD, aop) 41.4 37.4 38.3 40.7 40.3 40.5 41.9 43.5 43.9 44.4
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1
Imports (USD bn) 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.0 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8
Exports (annual var. in %) 13.6 5.4 -6.1 12.4 2.2 36.3 1.0 13.9 5.9 12.9
7 | Exchange Rate | HTG per USD 8 | Current Account | % of GDP
45 3
40 0
35 -3
30 -6
Haiti
Latin America Notes and sources
25 -9
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
General:
9 | HTG per USD | evolution of fcst 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst are from the National Statistical Institute (IHSI, Institut Hatien de Statistique
et d´Informatique) and the Central Bank (BRH, Banque de la Republique
d´Haiti). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
45 -5.0
Consensus Forecast.
2014 2015
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BRH.
44 2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BRH.
-5.5 3 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
Source: IHSI.
4 GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
43 5 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2014
-6.0 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
42 months.
2014 2015 7 Exchange rate, HTG per USD (eop). Source: BRH.
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BRH.
41 -6.5 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Haiti in the Region

Official name: Republic of Haiti Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Port-au-Prince (2.2m)
Other cities: Carrefour (0.5m) Haiti
1.8%
Delmas (0.4m)
Haiti
Area (km2): 27,750 14.1%
Population (million, 2013): 10.3 Puerto

Rico
31.0%
18.5%
Other
Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.1 36.0%
Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 63.2 Guatemala
21.2%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 51.3 Dominican
Language: Haitïan Creole, French Republic
16.2%
Measures: Metric System El Salvador
8.6%
Time: GMT-5 Dominican
Republic Costa Rica
Honduras Guatemala
11.1% 14.0% 13.0% 14.1%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 69.4 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12
100 150
Agriculture
Net Exports
80
100
Energy (2010)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 2.0 Manufacturing
60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 31.0 Investment
50
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 0.2 40 Other Industry

0
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 2.1 20
Total
Services Consumption
0 -50
Airports: 14
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Cap-Haitien, Port-au-Prince
Primary markets | share in %

16.4% Other
U.S.A.
22.7%
President: Michel Joseph Martelly 25.3%
Last elections: 20 March 2011

Next elections: March 2015 Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Charles Castel China
6.8%
Other
LatAm
U.S.A. Dominican
8.7%
83.6% Rep.
36.5%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Moody’s: - -
S&P: - - Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: - -
Agric.
Raw Mat.

4.5% Food
Strengths Weaknesses 19.8% Other
25.2%
• UN presence provides relative

• Weak central government Manufact.

stability • Infrastructure largely destroyed Products
Exports Imports
34.9%
• Prudent economic management by Jan. 2010 earthquake
in recent years • Dependence on foreign aid Other
60.7% Mineral
• High illiteracy rate Fuels
29.5%
Manufact.
Products
.
25.5%


FOCUSECONOMICS Honduras November 2014
Honduras
Outlook stable
Honduras
 Economy activity in Honduras has been losing momentum since the

second quarter of the year. Economic growth slowed from 3.3% in
the first quarter to 2.7% in the second and continued to moderate
during July and August. The slowdown mainly reflects the weak
performance of the agriculture sector, which is suffering from one of
the most severe droughts in history that has affected several Central
American countries since June.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
 The drought-induced slowdown is likely to be transitory and
Population (million): 7.3 7.8 8.3 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy
GDP (USD bn): 13.6 17.4 19.8 to grow 3.0% in 2014. For 2015, the panel sees economic growth
GDP growth (%): 2.6 3.8 2.9 picking up slightly to 3.1%, which is unchanged from last month’s
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.5 -3.3 -5.6 forecast.
Inflation (%): 7.9 5.5 5.1
External Debt (% of GDP): 24.6 24.4 24.2  Inflation eased from 6.3% in August to 6.1% in September. Panelists
see inflation closing the year at 6.3% and expect it to drop to 5.7% in
Cecilia Simkievich
2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Economist
10 2 15
Honduras
Latin America
0
5 10
-2
-4
0 5
Honduras -6
Latin America Honduras
World Latin America
-5 -8 0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
3.4 -3 6.4
2014 2015 2014 2015
2014 2015
3.2 -4 6.0
3.0 -5 5.6
2.8 -6 5.2

Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 10.9 12.4 13.9 14.6 15.8 17.7 18.5 18.9 19.9 20.7
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 13.4 24.4 6.3 -35.4 1.4 16.9 4.2 -0.9 4.5 5.1
Lending Rate (%, eop) 16.6 16.5 20.0 18.9 19.0 18.1 19.2 20.3 17.5 16.2
Exchange Rate (HNL per USD, eop) 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.1 20.0 20.6 21.4 21.9
Exchange Rate (HNL per USD, aop) 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.5 20.4 21.0 21.7
External Sector
Current Account (USD bn) -0.4 -1.1 -2.1 -0.5 -0.7 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6
Exports (USD bn) 5.3 5.8 6.2 4.8 5.7 7.2 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.6
Imports (USD bn) 7.3 8.9 10.5 7.3 8.5 10.3 11.2 11.1 11.5 12.0
Exports (annual var. in %) 4.5 9.6 7.2 -22.2 19.0 25.5 10.1 -0.9 4.4 4.6
Imports (annual var. in %) 11.6 21.7 17.6 -30.2 17.1 20.9 8.1 -0.9 3.9 4.6
Remittances (USD bn) 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 - -
7 | Exchange Rate | HNL per USD 8 | Current Account | % of GDP
23 5
0
21
-5
19
-10
17
-15
Honduras
Latin America
15 -20
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Notes and sources
9 | HNL per USD | evolution of fcst 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

General:
22.0 -7
are from the Central Bank (BCH, Banco Central de Honduras). Forecasts
2014 2015 based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
-8 1 GDP, annual variation in %.

21.5 2 Fiscal balance as % of GDP.
-9
5 Fiscal balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts
during the last 18 months.
21.0 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
-10 months.
7 Exchange rate, HNL per USD (eop).
2014 2015 8 Current account balance as % of GDP.
20.5 -11 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Honduras in the Region

Official name: Republic of Honduras Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Tegucigalpa (1.1m)
Other cities: San Pedro Sula (0.8m)
Honduras
Area (km2): 112,090 4.9%
Honduras

Puerto
Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.7 Other
28.6% Rico
Other
Life expectancy (years, 2014 est.): 70.9 33.3%
18.5%
Guatemala
Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 14.9 21.2%
Language: Spanish
Measures: Metric system Dominican
Republic
Time: GMT-6 Honduras
11.1% 16.2%
Haiti Costa Rica
Dominican 14.1% 13.0%
Republic Guatemala
14.0% 14.1%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 96
2004-06 2007-09 2010-12 2004-06 2007-09 2010-12
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 17.8 100 120
Agriculture 100 Net Exports

80
Energy (2010)
80
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 30.0
Manufacturing Investment
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 132 60
60
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 4.9 40 Government
40 Other Industry
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 46.4 Consumption
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 7.6 20
20 Private
Services
0 Consumption
Transportation (2013) 0 -20

Airports: 104
Railways (km): 75
Roadways (km): 14,239 Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Puerto Cortes

9.1%
Mexico Other
5.6% 3.5%
El Salvador El Salvador
President: Juan Orlando Hernández 6.6% 5.7%
U.S.A.
Last elections: 24 November 2013 34.5% Guatemala
8.5%
Next elections: 2017 Other
U.S.A.
44.3%
Central Bank President: Marlon Tábora Muñoz LatAm Exports Imports
20.4%
Other
LatAm
18.8%
Other EU-
Belgium
27
6.8%
Germany 11.0% Asia ex- EU-27
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 11.6% Japan 5.1%
8.5%

S&P: B Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: - -
Mining Agriculture Capital

Strengths Weaknesses 6.1% 16.2% goods
13.8%
Consumer
• Entitled to participate in • Widespread poverty goods
34.5%
programs for poor countries • Elevated crime rate
Manufact.
from international • High illiteracy rate Exports Goods
Fuel and
oil
Imports
20.0%
23.5%
organizations
• Recipient of large amounts of Industrial
57.6%
remittances from abroad .
Intermed.
goods
28.2%

FOCUSECONOMICS Jamaica November 2014
Jamaica
Outlook stable
Jamaica
 In the second quarter, economic growth accelerated on the back of

a rebound in manufacturing due to a boost in oil refining and sugar
production. The economy’s good performance also reflects the
reforms and spending restraints that the government has undertaken
since the country signed the Extended Fund Facility agreement with
the IMF last year.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages  Recent droughts are expected to weigh on economic activity
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
in the third quarter, however, the growth outlook is positive.
Population (million): 2.7 2.8 2.8 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy
GDP (USD bn): 12.9 14.2 14.4
to accelerate considerably this year compared to last year and grow
GDP growth (%): -1.3 -0.1 1.1 1.2%. In 2015, the panel projects that GDP will expand 1.6%.
Inflation (%): 13.5 9.0 8.9  Inflation fell from 9.8% in August to 9.0% in September. High inflation
Current Account (% of GDP): -14.7 -11.7 -8.8 rates in the third quarter reflect the impact of the droughts, which
resulted in a supply shortage for some agricultural products.
Dirina Mançellari FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that inflation
Economist will end 2014 at 8.9%. For 2015, the panel projects that inflation will
ease to 8.0%.
10 4 20
Jamaica Jamaica Jamaica
Latin America
World
0
5 15
-4
0 10
-8
-5 -12 5
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
2.0 1 9.0
2014 2015 2014 2015
2014 2015
1.8
0 8.5
1.6
1.4
-1 8.0
1.2
1.0 -2 7.5

Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 11.9 12.8 13.7 12.1 13.2 14.4 14.8 14.4 14.2 14.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 2.9 1.4 -0.7 -4.4 -1.5 1.7 -0.6 0.6 1.2 1.6
Total Consumption (annual var. in %) 6.3 11.4 18.0 -18.5 10.4 13.1 3.5 1.3 1.1 1.5
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 13.5 0.6 -7.9 -17.9 -2.6 8.1 -5.0 5.5 2.5 2.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.9 -3.8 -7.5 -11.1 -6.3 -6.4 -4.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP) 117 115 127 142 143 142 147 142 138 131
Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 16.6 11.6 4.1 2.9 6.3 6.4 4.0 4.2 - -
30-Day Deposit Rate (%, eop) 12.79 12.56 15.89 19.95 9.26 6.59 6.62 7.29 7.76 7.87
Exchange Rate (JMD per USD, eop) 67.0 71.1 79.5 88.9 85.2 86.1 92.4 106.0 111.8 119.8
Exchange Rate (JMD per USD, aop) 65.5 69.0 72.6 87.6 86.8 85.5 88.4 99.9 100.9 115.8
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 1.9 2.3 2.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7
Imports (USD bn) 5.7 6.9 7.6 5.1 5.3 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.8 7.3
Imports (annual var. in %) 19.2 22.0 10.9 -33.8 5.3 20.9 -1.7 -1.8 8.7 8.4
20 5
Jamaica
0
Latin America
15
-5
-10
10
-15
Jamaica
Latin America
5 -20
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Notes and sources
9 | Trade Balance | USD billion 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst General:

Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2015 unless otherwise stated. All real,
10 -6
monetary and external sector data are from the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB). See below for details. Forecasts based
2014 2015 on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
5 -7 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: IMF.

2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
0
Source: IMF.
-8 4 GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-5
-9 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
Trade Balance
months.
Imports
7 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: WB.
Exports
-10
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: WB.
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
-10 9 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: WB.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 10 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015

Fact Sheet
General Data Jamaica in the Region

Official name: Jamaica Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Kingston (0.9m)
Other cities: New Kingston (0.6m) Jamaica Jamaica
3.8% 3.8%
Spanish Town (0.1m)
Area (km2): 10,991
Guatemala
21.2%
Other
Rico
18.5%
Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 0.7 35.9% 34.4%

Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 13
Dominican
Language: English Haiti Republic
14.1% 16.3%
Measures: Metric system
Time: GMT-5 Honduras Dominican Costa Rica
11.1% Republic 13.0% Guatemala
14.0% 14.1%
Economic Structure
100 150
80
100
Energy (2010)
60
50
Government
Consumption
0
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 57.6 20 Private
Services
0 -50
Airports: 28
Railways (km): -
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Kingston, Montego Bay Primary markets | share in %

Other 16.7%
Prime Minister: Portia Simpson Miller 25.6%
U.S.A.
Last elections: 29 December 2011 36.1%
Next elections: 2016 U.S.A.

Exports 49.6%
Venezuela
15.6%
Imports
Central Bank President: Brian Wynter
EU-27
17.4%
Asia ex-
Other Japan
Canada LatAm 8.2%

Moody’s: Caa3 Positive
S&P: B- Positive Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: B- Stable
Other
Other 3.2%
0.2% Food
Strengths Weaknesses Food 16.0%
22.1%

• Financial support from • Severe trade deficit

multilateral bodies • Large Public Debt Manufact.
• Stable democratic framework • Vulnerability to external shocks Exports Products Imports
Imports Manufact.
49.6% Products
47.9%
• Substantial remittances from • Poverty, unemployment, Mineral
Fuels
Mineral
Fuels
the diaspora insecurity and corruption 19.4% 32.9%
• Satisfactory business Ores &

Metals
environment 8.7%

FOCUSECONOMICS Nicaragua November 2014
Nicaragua
Outlook moderates
Nicaragua
 The economy decelerated significantly from the 5.4% expansion

recorded in the first quarter to 3.2% growth in the second. Q2’s
slowdown was largely driven by shrinking investment and, to a lesser
extent, by falling net exports as well as a moderation in consumption.
Low rainfall triggered a notable decline in agricultural output, and a
marked drop in construction also added to Q2’s weak performance.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages  Falling investment and less favorable international conditions
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
weakened Nicaragua’s economic outlook slightly. FocusEconomics
Population (million): 5.8 6.0 6.2 panelists expect the economy to grow 4.3% in 2014. For 2015, the
GDP (USD bn): 8.1 9.8 12.0 panel also expects economic growth of 4.3%, which is down 0.2
GDP growth (%): 1.4 2.6 4.5 percentage points from last month’s Consensus.
Inflation (%): 10.7 6.3 6.9
 Inflation inched up from 6.5% in September to 6.6% in October,
External Debt (% of GDP): 44.5 44.0 39.3 continuing the overall upward trend which has been in place since
October 2013 and which was just briefly interrupted in the two
Teresa Kersting
previous months. Panelists see inflation ending the year at 6.9% in
Economist
2014 and at 7.0% in 2015.
8 2 20
Nicaragua
Latin America
0
15
4
-2
10
-4
0
5
Nicaragua -6
Latin America Nicaragua
World Latin America
-4 -8 0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
4.6 -0.5 7.3

2014 2015 2014 2015
2014 2015
4.4 -0.7 7.1
4.2 -0.9 6.9
4.0 -1.1 6.7
3.8 -1.3 6.5


Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 6.9 7.4 8.5 8.4 8.9 9.9 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.7
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.1 4.7 3.3 1.2 4.5 4.9 4.6 3.8 3.9 4.1
Total Investment (annual var. in %) -0.1 20.5 7.3 -29.1 -6.6 21.6 5.5 -8.3 6.3 7.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -2.5 -3.1 -3.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.0 0.1 -1.2 -1.3
Average Lending Rate (%, eop) 11.6 13.0 13.2 14.1 13.3 10.8 12.0 15.0 15.1 16.1
Exchange Rate (NIO per USD, eop) 17.9 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.0 23.8 25.1 26.4 27.8
Exchange Rate (NIO per USD, aop) 17.3 18.4 19.3 20.2 21.4 22.4 22.4 23.5 25.8 27.1
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.8
Imports (USD bn) 3.0 3.6 4.3 3.5 4.2 5.2 5.9 5.6 5.9 6.3
Imports (annual var. in %) 15.4 20.0 19.4 -18.6 20.0 23.8 13.5 -5.1 4.9 7.9
7 | Exchange Rate | NIO per USD 8 | Current Account | % of GDP
30 10
Nicaragua
Latin America
25
0
20
-10
15
10 -20
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Notes and sources
9 | NIO per USD | evolution of fcst 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst

General:
29 -10
data are from the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN, Banco Central de
2014 2015 2014 2015 Nicaragua). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
-12 1 GDP, annual variation in %.

28 2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP.
-14 5 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2014
27 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
-16 months.
7 Exchange rate, NIO per USD (eop).
8 Current account balance as % of GDP.
26 -18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Nicaragua in the Region

Official name: Republic of Nicaragua Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: Managua (1.8 m)
Other cities: León (0.2 m) Nicaragua
Chinandega (0.1 m) Nicaragua
3.0%
8.4%
Area (km2): 130,370
Rico
Population density (per km2, 2013): 47.0 Other
31.3% Other
18.5%
Guatemala
Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): 1.0 21.2% 35.2%

Illiteracy rate (%, 2005 est.): 22 Dominican
Language: Spanish Republic
16.3%
Measures: Metric System Honduras Haiti
11.1% 14.1%
Time: GMT-6 Dominican Costa Rica
Guatemala
Republic 13.0%
14.1%
14.0%
Economic Structure
100 150
80
100
Energy (2010)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 12.0 60
Manufacturing Investment
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 72.0

50
Government
Consumption
0
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 4.5 20 Private
Services
Consumption
0 -50
Airports: 147
Trade Structure
Waterways (km): 2,220
Chief Ports: Bluefields, Corinto Primary markets | share in %
Other
Political Data Venezuela
6.7% Other U.S.A.
17.6% 19.0%
7.4%
President: Daniel Ortega
Last elections: 6 November 2011 Other
LatAm Other Asia
Costa Rica
Next elections: November 2016 15.0% Exports 8.5% Imports ex-Japan
7.1%
Central Bank President: Ovidio Reyes Ramírez U.S.A.
55.8% China
EU-27 7.9%
Mexico
6.5% 12.2%
Canada Other
8.7% LatAm
Venezuela 12.9%

Primary products | share in %
S&P: - -
Fitch Ratings: - -
Other Other
4.1% Manufact. 1.2%
Strengths Weaknesses Products
7.6%
Food
17.1%

• Competitive labor costs • Small domestic economy
• CAFTA-DR membership • Heavy debt burden Exports Imports
facilitates access to U.S. market • Large current account deficit Mineral
Fuels
• Recurrent border conflict 22.0%
Manufact.
Products
with Costa Rica 59.7%
. Food

88.3%

FOCUSECONOMICS Puerto Rico November 2014
Puerto Rico
Outlook stable
Puerto Rico
 The Puerto Rican economy remains in the doldrums and there is

no indication as to when or how it will recover from years of falling
growth. The island is burdened by more than USD 73 billion in debt,
including roughly USD 20 billion held by large public companies. The
government passed legislation in June allowing these companies to
restructure their finances and has raised additional funds through the
sale of new bonds. However, legal challenges from external creditors
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages and questions surrounding the sustainability of new financing are a
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
source of concern, as are prospects that a widespread debt default
Population (million): 3.8 3.7 3.6 is looming. Meanwhile, economic activity continues to slide and
GDP (USD bn): 93.2 99.9 103.2
unemployment is in the double-digits.
GDP growth (%): -1.5 -1.4 -1.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -21.8 -34.4 -38.8  The troubling debt situation is weighing heavily on the country’s
Inflation (%): 4.6 2.4 1.7 economic outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.7 8.4 7.7 expect GNP to have contracted 1.3% in FY2014. For FY2015, which
began in July, the panel expects GNP to fall 0.7%.
Carl Kelly
Economist  In September, annual inflation inched down to 0.3% (August: +0.4%
year-on-year). Panelists expect inflation to average 1.6% in FY2015.
1 | GNP | variation in % 2 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 3 | Inflation | in %
10 0 15
Puerto Rico
Latin America
World
-10 10
5
-20 5
0
-30 0
Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico
-5 -40 -5
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
4 | GNP | evolution of forecasts 5 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst 6 | Inflation | evolution of forecasts
0.5 -30 1.6

2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015
0.0 1.4
-35
-0.5 1.2
-40
-1.0 1.0
-1.5 -45 0.8


Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 87.3 89.5 93.6 96.4 98.4 100.4 101.1 103.1 102.7 103.6
GNP per capita (USD) 15,204 16,030 16,673 17,008 17,278 17,827 18,813 19,429 19,472 19,735
GNP (USD bn) 57.9 60.6 62.7 63.6 64.3 65.7 68.7 70.7 70.5 71.1
Economic Growth (GNP, annual var. in %) 0.5 -1.2 -2.9 -3.8 -3.6 -1.7 0.9 0.3 -1.3 -0.7
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) 6.5 4.0 6.5 -0.4 2.0 3.3 0.9 0.4 1.5 -
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -8.0 -4.8 -1.2 4.0 8.1 8.1 9.1 10.3 6.7 6.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -4.7 -2.9 -0.7 2.5 5.2 5.3 6.3 7.3 6.9 6.5
Trade Balance (USD bn) 17.5 14.7 19.0 20.2 20.8 20.2 12.3 17.4 18.7 19.0
Exports (USD bn) 60.1 60.0 64.0 60.8 61.7 64.9 58.9 62.4 62.7 64.4
Imports (USD bn) 42.6 45.3 44.9 40.7 40.8 44.7 46.6 45.0 43.9 45.7
Exports (annual var. in %) 6.3 -0.2 6.6 -4.9 1.4 5.2 -9.2 5.9 0.4 2.8
Imports (annual var. in %) 9.6 6.2 -0.7 -9.5 0.4 9.5 4.3 -3.3 -2.5 4.0
20 30
Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico
Latin America
Latin America
20
15
10
10
0
Notes and sources
5 -10
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 General:
All annual data refer to fiscal year (July-June). Long-term chart period
from 2000 to 2015 unless otherwise stated. All real, monetary and external
sector data are from the Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico
9 | Trade Balance | USD billion 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst (GDB), the Departament of Treasury of Puerto Rico (DH, Departamento de
Hacienda de Puerto Rico), and the Puerto Rico Planning Board (JP, Junta
80 8
de Planificación de Puerto Rico). See below for details. Forecasts based
Trade Balance on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Imports
Exports 1 GNP, annual variation in %. Source: GDB, JP.
60 2 Balance of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico as % of GDP. Source:
7 DH.
3 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (aop).
Source: GDB.
40 4 GNP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Balance of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico as % of GDP, evolution
6 of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
20 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
months.
2014 2015 7 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: GDB, JP.
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: GDB, JP.
0 5 9 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: GDB.

Fact Sheet
General Data Puerto Rico in the Region

Official name: Commonwealth of Puerto Rico Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Capital: San Juan (2.7m)
Other cities: Bayamón (0.3m)
Carolina (0.2m) Puerto
Rico
Area (km2): 9,104 5.0% Puerto
Rico
Other
Guatemala
21.2%
27.0%
Population growth rate (%, 2014 est.): -0.6 34.7%

Dominican
Illiteracy rate (%, 2011): 9.7 Republic
16.2%
Language: Spanish, English
Haiti Panama
Measures: Metric system 14.1% 11.2%
Time: GMT-5 Honduras

11.1% Dominican Guatemala
Costa Rica 14.1%
Republic
13.0%
14.0%
Economic Structure
100 100
Agriculture Net Exports
80 80
Energy (2011)
60 60
Government
Consumption
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 152
Services
Consumption
0 0
Airports: 29
Railways (km): -
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Guayanilla, Mayaguez, San Juan Primary markets | share in %
Other
Political Data 10.6% Other
15.9%
Governor: Alejandro García Padilla

Last elections: 6 November 2012 EU-27
18.4%
LatAm
U.S.A.
7.7%
Next elections: November 2016 42.6%
Exports Imports
Central Bank President: José Pagán Beauchamp Singapore
8.4%
U.S.A.
70.9%
Ireland
18.1% Other EU-
Long-term General Obligation Ratings 27
7.2%

Moody’s: B2 Negative
S&P: BB Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB- Negative
Food and Electrical

Beverages Equipment
Strengths Weaknesses 8.9% Other 9.4%
23.1% Manufactur
es
• Close economic ties • Mounting public debt 13.1% Other
to the U.S. • Large fiscal deficit 42.6%
• Bilingual labor force Exports Imports

• Highly developed Machinery
16.2%
pharmaceutical industry
Pharmace
uticals Pharmace
68.0% uticals
18.7%

FOCUSECONOMICS Trinidad and Tobago November 2014
Trinidad and T.
Trinidad and Tobago
Outlook moderates
 While the Trinidadian economy recorded zero annual growth in
the first quarter of the year, more recent data point to a positive
development of the economy. Preliminary results for the second
quarter show that the non-energy sector grew at a strong pace
and that the sector’s contribution to GDP will increase in 2014. The
government has been trying to boost dynamism in the economy by
diversifying away from the volatile energy sector, which forms the
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages backbone of GDP.
2007-09 2010-12 2013-15
Population (million): 1.3 1.3 1.4  Early results showing strong growth in the non-petroleum sector
GDP (USD bn): 23.1 22.6 26.5
have moderated the impact of falling oil prices on the country’s
GDP growth (%): 1.2 -0.4 2.0 economic outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.3 -3.2 -2.2 see the economy growing 2.1% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015.
Inflation (%): 8.9 8.3 5.1
Current Account (% of GDP): 21.1 12.1 10.0  In September, inflation rose to 7.8% from August’s 7.4%. Inflation has
accelerated rapidly in the past three months, due to a sharp increase
Angela Bouzanis in food prices. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists
Economist expect that inflation will end 2014 at 5.2% and 2015 at 4.0%.
15 3 15
10
0 10
-3 5
0
Trinidad & Tobago Trinidad & Tobago
Trinidad & Tobago
Latin America
Latin America
World Latin America
-5 -6 0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
4.0 -0.5 6.5
2014 2015 2014 2015

2014 2015
3.5
-1.5 5.5
3.0
-2.5 4.5
2.5
2.0 -3.5 3.5


Annual Data 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 18.5 21.8 28.2 19.3 20.8 23.7 23.4 24.6 26.5 28.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 13.7 4.8 3.4 -4.4 0.2 -2.6 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.2
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.9 4.9 7.9 7.4 8.8 1.9 7.0 3.7 2.7 3.0
Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) 12.0 8.7 4.0 -12.0 2.8 2.2 3.7 4.0 4.5 4.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.2 5.6 4.6 5.3 5.9 5.0 4.8 3.7 5.0 4.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.2 2.2 -3.8 -2.3 -3.0 -2.3 -4.3 -3.0 -1.5 -2.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %) 17.8 13.5 14.3 19.1 5.3 13.8 10.4 9.0 - -
Repo Rate (%, eop) 8.00 8.00 8.75 5.25 3.75 3.00 2.75 2.75 2.25 2.25
Exchange Rate (TTD per USD, eop) 6.28 6.26 6.29 6.36 6.38 6.39 6.39 6.41 6.45 6.51
Exchange Rate (TTD per USD, aop) 6.25 6.26 6.19 6.24 6.34 6.38 6.40 6.41 6.43 6.48
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 26.0 24.6 30.2 8.4 20.1 12.2 4.1 10.4 10.3 9.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 4.8 5.4 8.5 1.6 4.2 2.9 1.0 2.6 2.7 2.6
Trade Balance (USD bn) 7.7 5.7 9.1 2.2 4.5 3.5 3.7 4.5 4.3 4.1
Exports (USD bn) 14.2 13.4 18.7 9.1 11.0 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.4
Imports (USD bn) 6.5 7.7 9.6 7.0 6.5 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.6
Exports (annual var. in %) 42.4 -5.4 39.2 -51.1 20.3 18.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.1
Imports (annual var. in %) 13.9 18.2 25.2 -27.5 -6.8 47.4 -1.6 -0.4 1.1 1.6
15 40
Trinidad & Tobago Trinidad & Tobago
30
10
20
10
5
0 -10 Notes and sources

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
General:
9 | Trade Balance | USD billion 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst real, monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank of
Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT), Central Statistical Office (CSO), Ministry
20 12
of Finance (MoF), World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI),
Trade Balance International Monetary Fund (IMF). See below for details. Forecasts based
Imports 2014 2015 on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Exports
15 10 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: CBTT.
2 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: MoF.
Source: CSO.
10 8 4 GDP, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 6 6 Inflation, evolution of 2014 and 2015 forecasts during the last 18
months.
7 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: IMF.
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: WDI.
0 4 9 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: WDI.

Fact Sheet
General Data Trinidad and Tobago in the Region

Official name: Republic of Trinidad and Population | %-share in Central America GDP | %-share in Central America
Tobago Trinidad
Capital: Port of Spain (0.5m) and
Tobago
Other cities: San Juan (0.1m) 1.8% Trinidad
and
Area (km2): 5,128 Tobago
5.9%
Population (million, 2013): 1.2 Guatemala
20.9%
Population density (per km2, 2013): 234.0 Other
28.9%
Other Puerto
Pop. growth rate (%, 2014 est.): -0.1 37.9% Rico
25.9%
Haiti
Language: English, Trinidadian Creole, 14.4%
Tobagonian Creole Costa Rica
11.6% Dominican
Measures: Metric system Honduras Dominican Republic
Republic Guatemala 14.8%
Time: GMT-4 11.0%
14.0% 12.9%
Economic Structure
100 100
80 80
Energy (2011)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1770 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Government
Consumption
Services
Consumption
0 0
Airports: 118
Railways (km): -
Trade Structure
Waterways (km): - Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Point Lisas, Port of Spain

17.9% Other
President: Anthony Carmona 24.2%
U.S.A.
33.0%
Last elections: 15 February 2013 Chile
U.S.A.
40.3%
Next elections: March 2018 6.8%
Exports Imports
Central Bank governor: Jwala Rambarran Argentina
Colombia
7.7%
8.9%
Brazil
Other EU-27
8.1%
LatAm 9.1%
EU-27 Other Asia ex-
16.6% LatAm
9.5% Japan

Moody’s: Baa1 Stable
S&P: A Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: - -
Other Other

4.5% Food 5.2%


Manufact.
• World's fifth largest producer of • Small domestic economy Products
23.8%
liquified natural gas (LNG) • Pronounced socio-economic
• World's first exporter of inequalities Exports Mineral Imports
Fuels
Manufact.
methanol and ammonia 33.8%
Products
Mineral
• Ample sovereign wealth fund Fuels
51.2%
71.7%


FOCUSECONOMICS
Notes November 2014
Notes and Statements
PUBLICATION NOTE COPYRIGHT NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of © Copyright 2014 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction,
economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any
monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written
the annual figures due to different forecast panels. consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please
cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregate refer to Copyright Conventions.
economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and
include the following countries: The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Central America is
a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to
Central America and Caribbean (12 countries): Belize, Costa the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed
Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, as follows:
Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and
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FOCUSECONOMICS

Trinidad and T. ...........................................59

© FocusEconomics 2014 Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, Spain

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Central America and Caribbean

2012 2013 2014 2015

2012 2013 2014 2015

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |2

 Inflation in Central America and the Caribbean is expected to end

Forecast Changes Over Last Month

Change in 2015 GDP Growth Forecast Change in 2015 Inflation Forecast

Dominican Republic Haiti

-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |3

According to preliminary estimates released on 29 October, imports expanded

Economic growth in El Salvador has remained sluggish in recent years mainly

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |4

In the second quarter, economic growth accelerated on the back of a rebound in

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |5

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2014

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |6

Consumption, annual variation in % Consumption Growth, 2014

Note: Total consumption, real annual variation in %.

Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |7

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2014

15 Notes and sources

Note: Unemployment rate, % of active population (for details see

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2014

-40 -30 -20 -10 0

Notes and sources

2012 2013 2014 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |8

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2014

Haiti -4.7 4.7 8.3 7.6 3.4 4.9 5.0 Guatemala

Notes and sources

Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2014

10 Trinidad and Tobago

Notes and sources

8 Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean |9

Notes and sources

2012 2013 2014 2015

Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2014

Notes and sources

2012 2013 2014 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean | 10

Exports, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2014

5 Notes and sources

Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports.

2012 2013 2014 2015

Imports, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2014

Notes and sources

2012 2013 2014 2015

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Central America and Caribbean | 11

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2014