M O O R E’ S L A W

Moore’s Law is a predictive trend in the computing realm, which was formulated by Gordon E. Moore in 1965.
Using the information that was available at the time, the rate of change of transistors per an Integrated Chip (IC)
was predicted. Integrated Chips have been a part of Computer Systems Architecture for decades, and the hype
isn’t expected to diminish any time soon.

An Integrated Chip consists of multiple transistors to carry out data processing and the central strength of these
chips is their ability to incorporate a large number of transistors on a single chip. The self-explanatory principle
follows; A larger number of transistors per an Integrated Chip extrapolates to an increased computing output!
Gordon Earle Moore, with a reported net worth of $8.8 billion in the Forbes Magazine; is the cofounder of
computing processor industry frontrunners, Intel® Technologies.

The law states that the number of transistors per integrated chip, doubles every two years. This extrapolation is
surely a breakthrough in computing research; highlighting the importance of theoretical analysis. Even more
notably however, it has been proven to be fairly accurate from 1965 through to 2015. During this era, the demand
of computing power increased almost linearly, to compliment the software industry’s exponential growth.

Since 2015, the rate of change of transistors per IC, has seen just a minute decline to double every three years
instead of two. It is quite evident that this anomaly has been driven by economies of scale and targeted research.
Economies of scale have allowed technology to become much more affordable, accessible and stable; while
targeted research, especially in the area of time and space complexity of data processing have introduced
extremely efficient computing algorithms, reducing the average burden on computer processors.

As the World in 2018 is moving towards Quantum Computing, Moore’s law is slowly receiving more criticism than
it should. Arguably the best layman definition of ‘Quantum Computing’ was provided by the Canadian Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau, at a press conference.

“Normal computers work either with power going through a wire or not, a one or a zero. They're binary systems. A
quantum state can be much more complex than that because as we know things can be both a particle and a wave
at the same time, and the uncertainty around quantum states allows us to encode more information into a much
smaller computer. That's what's exciting about quantum computing."

Moore’s Law might not be even considered a law once quantum computing is initialized, as the number of
transistors per integrated chip might increase or decrease non-linearly against time due to the change in physical
characteristics of integrated circuits driven by quantum physics. Moreover, both quantum and binary technologies
existing simultaneously in the consumer market will also create discrepancies in this predictive trend. The
significance of this hypothesis however, coupled with its long-lasting accuracy cannot be undermined. It will mark
the end of an era in computing where the technological transformation as per Gordon E. Moore’s standards, has
truly been remarkable!

References:
(2015, Feb 11). Moore’s Law. Retrieved From https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWLBmapcJRU
(2018, Feb 19). Gordon Moore. Retrieved From https://www.forbes.com/profile/gordon-moore/
Oberhaus, Daniel. (2016, April 17). We Asked Some Experts to Score Justin Trudeau’s Explanation of Quantum
Computing. Retrieved From https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/wnxn9m/Justin-Trudeau-quantum-
computing

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