Moore’s Law

Electronics
19 April 1965
 Moore’s law
• Intel Moore observed an exponential doubling in the number of transistors in
every 18 months through the size reduction of transistor components since 1965.
In viewing of mobile computing with insatiate appetite, we explored the necessary
enhancement by an increasingly maturing nanotechnology and facing the
inevitable quantum-mechanical atomic and nuclei limits. Since we cannot break
down the atomic size barrier, the fact implies a fundamental size limit at the
atomic/nucleus scale. This means, nomore simple 18-month doubling, but other
forms of transistor doubling may happen at a different slope. We are particularly
interested in the nano enhancement area. (i) 3 Dimensions: If the progress in
shrinking the in-plane dimensions is to slow down, vertical integration can help
increasing the areal device transistor density. As the devices continue to shrink
into the 20 to 30 nm range, the consideration of thermal properties and transport
in such devices becomes increasingly important. (ii) Quantum computing: The
other types of transistor material are rapidly developed in laboratories worldwide,
for example, Spintronics, Nanostorage, HP display Nanotechnology, which are
modifying this Law. We shall consider the limitation of phonon engineering
fundamental information unit "Qubyte" in quantum computing, Nano/Micro
Electrical Mechanical System (NEMS), Carbon Nanotubes, singlelayer Graphenes,
single-strip Nano-Ribbons, and so forth.

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• What is Moore’s Law ? Mr. Gordon Moore
Moore's law is the observation that, over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors on
integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years.
The law is named after Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore, who described the trend in his 1965 paper.
His prediction has proven to be accurate, in part because the law is now used in the semiconductor industry to
guide longterm planning and to set targets for research and development.
The capabilities of many digital electronic devices are strongly linked to Moore's law: processing speed,
memory capacity, sensors and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras.
All of these are improving at (roughly) exponential rates as well. This exponential improvement has
dramatically enhanced the impact of digital electronics in nearly every segment of the world economy.
Moore's law describes a driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st
centuries.
The period often quoted as "18 months" is due to Intel executive David House, who predicted that period for a
doubling in chip performance (being a combination of the effect of more transistors and their being faster).
Although this trend has continued for more than half a century, Moore's law should be considered an
observation or conjecture and not a physical or natural law.
Sources in 2005 expected it to continue until at least 2015 or 2020.However, the 2010 update to the
International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors has growth slowing at the end of 2013
after which time transistor counts and densities are to double only every three years.

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Moore’s Original Data

Gordon Moore
Electronics
19 April 1965
 Graph of Moore’s Law

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 Graph of Moore’s Law – with MS

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 Graph of Moore’s Law – with MS

Human
Intelligence
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 Memory bottleneck
• The CPU can add two numbers in less than
one nanosecond.
– If they are both in registers
• Putting a number from memory into a register
takes about 100 nanoseconds.
• “Stall” – the CPU waits on memory.

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 GPU architecture
• GPUs have much less space devoted to cache.
• GPUs have multiple (100-1000) cores, which
are simpler, slower processing units.
• GPU cores all perform the same instructions,
but on different data.
• Not all the cores can be active at once. When
one stalls, another one starts up.

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GPU and CPU: The Differences

ALU ALU
Control
ALU ALU

Cache

DRAM DRAM

CPU GPU

GPU
More transistors devoted to computation, instead of caching
or flow control
Suitable for data-intensive computation
High arithmetic/memory operation ratio
Intel Core i5-3470 Ivy Bridge Processor:
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