Statistics For Life and Social Sciences: Chapter 5: Introduction To Inference

STATISTICS FOR LIFE AND SOCIAL SCIENCES
CHAPTER 5: INTRODUCTION TO INFERENCE
Thach Thanh Tien
Ton Duc Thang University
February 1, 2021
Thach Thanh Tien (Ton Duc Thang University) STATISTICS FOR LIFE AND SOCIAL SCIENCES February 1, 2021 1 / 30
Content
1 Introduction
2 Estimating with confidence

Confidence intervals
Confidence interval for a population mean
Choosing the sample size
Confidence interval for a population proportion
3 Tests of significance
Stating hypotheses
Test statistics
P-values
Statistical significance
Tests for a population mean
Tests for a population proportion
Introduction
Introduction
Confidence intervals
Confidence interval
A level C (0.90, 0.95, 0.99) confidence interval for a parameter is an interval
computed from sample data by a method that has probability C of producing an
interval containing the true value of the parameter.

Choose an SRS of size n from a population having unknown mean µ and known
standard deviation σ. The margin of error for a level C confidence interval for µ is
σ
m = z∗ √ (1)
n
Here z ∗ is the value on the standard Normal curve with area C between the
critical points −z ∗ and z ∗ . The level C confidence interval for µ is
x±m (2)
This interval is exact when the population distribution is Normal and is

approximately correct when n is large in other cases.
Estimating with confidence
Fuel efficiency
Computers in some vehicles calculate various quantities related to performance.
One of these is the fuel efficiency, or gas mileage, usually expressed as miles per
gallon (mpg). For one vehicle equipped in this way, the mpg were recorded each
time the gas tank was filled, and the computer was then reset. Here are the mpg
values for a random sample of 20 of these records:
41.5 50.7 36.6 37.3 34.2 45.0 48.0 43.2 47.7 42.2
43.2 44.6 48.4 46.4 46.8 39.2 37.3 43.5 44.3 43.3
Suppose that the standard deviation is known to be σ = 3.5 mpg.

1 What is σx , the standard deviation of x?
2 Give a 95% confidence interval for µ, the mean mpg for this vehicle.
Standard error
When the standard deviation of a statistic is estimated from the data, the result is
called the standard error of the statistic. The standard error of the sample mean
is
s
SEx = √ (3)
n
The t distributions
Suppose that an SRS of size n is drawn from an N (µ, σ) population. Then the
one-sample t statistic
x−µ
t= √ (4)
s/ n
has the t distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom.
The one-sample t confidence interval

Suppose that an SRS of size n is drawn from a population having unknown mean
µ. A level C confidence interval for µ is
s
x ± t∗ √ (5)
n
where t∗ is the value for the t(n − 1) density curve with area C between −t∗ and
t∗ . The quantity
s
t∗ √ (6)
n
is the margin of error. This interval is exact when the population distribution is
Normal and is approximately correct for large n in other cases.
Apartment rents
You randomly choose 15 unfurnished one-bedroom apartments from a large
number of advertisements in your local newspaper. You calculate that their mean
monthly rent is $570 and their standard deviation is $105.
1 What is the standard error of the mean?
2 What are the degrees of freedom for a one-sample t statistic?
What critical value t∗ from Table D should be used to construct
1 a 95% confidence interval when n = 12?
Listening to music on cell phones

Founded in 1998, Telephia provides a wide variety of information on cellular phone
use. In 2006, Telephia reported that, on average, United Kingdom (U.K.)
subscribers with thirdgeneration technology (3G) phones spent an average of 8.3
hours per month listening to full-track music on their cell phones. Determine a
95% confidence interval for the U.S. average and draw the following random
sample of size 8 from the U.S. population of 3G subscribers:
5 6 0 4 11 9 2 3
Choosing the sample size
SAMPLE SIZE FOR DESIRED MARGIN OF ERROR

The confidence interval for a population mean will have a specified margin of error
m when the sample size is
∗ 2
z σ
n= (7)
n
Large-sample confidence interval for a population proportion

Choose an SRS of size n from a large population with unknown proportion p of
successes. The sample proportion is
X
p̂ = (8)
n
where X is the number of successes. The standard error of p̂ is
r
p̂(1 − p̂)
SEp̂ = (9)
n
and the margin of error for confidence level C is
m = z ∗ SEp̂ (10)
where z ∗ is the value for the standard Normal density curve with area C between
−z ∗ and z ∗ .
Large-sample confidence interval for a population proportion

An approximate level C confidence interval for p is
p̂ ± m (11)
Use this interval for 90%, 95%, or 99% confidence when the number of successes
and the number of failures are both at least 15.
Stating hypotheses
Null hypothesis
The statement being tested in a test of significance is called the null hypothesis.
The test of significance is designed to assess the strength of the evidence against
the null hypothesis. Usually the null hypothesis is a statement of “no effect” or
“no difference.”
Test statistics
estimate − hypothesized value

z= (12)
standard deviation of the estimate
P-values
P-value
The probability, assuming H0 is true, that the test statistic would take a value as
extreme or more extreme than that actually observed is called the P-value of the
test. The smaller the P-value, the stronger the evidence against H0 provided by
the data.
If the P-value is as small or smaller than α, we say that the data are statistically
significant at level α.
Costs of Men’s Athletic Shoes

A researcher claims that the average cost of men’s athletic shoes is less than $80.
He selects a random sample of 36 pairs of shoes from a catalog and finds the
following costs (in dollars). (The costs have been rounded to the nearest dollar.)
Is there enough evidence to support the researcher’s claim at α = 0.10? Assume
σ = 19.2.
60 70 75 55 80 55
50 40 80 70 50 95
120 90 75 85 80 60
110 65 80 85 85 45
75 60 90 90 60 95
110 85 45 90 70 70
Doctor Visits
A report by the Gallup Poll stated that on average a woman visits her physician 5.8
times a year. A researcher randomly selects 20 women and obtained these data.
3 2 1 3 7 2 9 4 6 6
8 0 5 6 4 2 1 3 4 1
At α = 0.05 can it be concluded that the average is still 5.8 visits per year?
People Who Are Trying to Avoid Trans Fats

A dietitian claims that 60% of people are trying to avoid trans fats in their diets.
She randomly selected 200 people and found that 128 people stated that they
were trying to avoid trans fats in their diets. At α = 0.05, is there enough
evidence to reject the dietitian’s claim?

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STATISTICS FOR LIFE AND SOCIAL SCIENCES

CHAPTER 5: INTRODUCTION TO INFERENCE

Thach Thanh Tien

Ton Duc Thang University

2 Estimating with confidence

Confidence interval for a population mean

This interval is exact when the population distribution is Normal and is

Suppose that the standard deviation is known to be σ = 3.5 mpg.

The one-sample t confidence interval

Listening to music on cell phones

SAMPLE SIZE FOR DESIRED MARGIN OF ERROR

Large-sample confidence interval for a population proportion

Large-sample confidence interval for a population proportion

estimate − hypothesized value

Costs of Men’s Athletic Shoes

People Who Are Trying to Avoid Trans Fats

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