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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Amazon's Business

Preprint · January 2021

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28444.92805

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 The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Amazon's Business

Sıla Işık - isik.sila@metu.edu.tr

Hazal İbiş - hazal.ibis@metu.edu.tr
Advisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Osman Gülseven - gulseven@metu.edu.tr

Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Çankaya, Ankara 06800, Turkey

Abstract: This article aims to examine the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and
Amazon company, one of the most preferred online shopping companies. In doing this, we
analyze the relationship between stock prices and sales. Since the COVID-19 virus outbreak on
December 1, 2019, online shopping demand has increased exponentially. The main reasons for
this are shutdowns and voluntary or mandatory quarantine decisions that occur with the disease
becoming a global epidemic. With the increasing number of cases, there has been an increase
in these closures and quarantines. People who prefer online shopping and have made a habit
may have continued this habit when cases decrease at specific periods, measures relax, and
closures reduce. The analysis results can contribute to studies on new habits that households
have acquired in extreme conditions.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, weekly case rate, Amazon, sales, online shopping, e-
commerce, Amazon stock prices, demand, shopping behaviors, regression analysis,
correlation analysis

1. Introduction

This article examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Amazon sales and the
relationship between Amazon's stock prices and sales. Available data and epidemiological
details were combined to reveal this study. Amazon's sales data is accessed from quarterly
reports on its website, while stock price data was accessed from Yahoo Finance.
First of all, a correlation analysis was made to reveal the relationship between these two. In line
with the result, a regression analysis was made between Amazon's stock prices and total
COVID-19 cases globally. Then, the relationship between the number of cases, Amazon's sales
was evaluated. The data used on the pandemic spread is the weekly number of COVID-19 cases
obtained from Our World in Data.
This section provides an overview of how these variables have changed with the emergence of
the COVID-19 virus. According to the data on the World Health Organization website, the
number of confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide is 79,673,754 as of December 29, 2020, and
the number of cases announced daily since December 2019, the date of the virus emergence,
has an increasing trend in general. Especially since October 2020, it is possible to observe a
significant increase in the number of cases, and until December 29, 2020, the day with the
highest case number was December 20, 2020.
Looking at the e-commerce net sales data in the Quarterly report published by Amazon,
although there was a decrease in the 4th quarter of 2019 and the third quarter of 2020, significant
increases are observed in other periods. Especially in the transition from the first quarter of
2020 to the second quarter, there is an increase almost twice. If the price of Amazon stocks is
examined through Yahoo Finance, it can be said that with the pandemic, it was decreasing at
the beginning of 2020, and it has an increasing trend from March 16 to September 2. Then, its
value experienced fluctuations.
The issue that there may be permanent changes in consumers' shopping behavior due to the
pandemic, which is one of the points we touched on with this study, was also mentioned in the
report published due to a survey conducted by UNCTAD. According to the report, the COVID-
19 outbreak has forever changed online shopping behavior (UNCTAD & Suisse e-Commerce
Association, 2020). The report was written according to a survey of approximately 3,700
consumers in nine developing and developed economies. Again, one issue highlighted in the
report is that consumers in developing countries will be more likely to shop online after
COVID19 than in the developed economy.
Also, changes in shopping behavior may differ between generations. As an example, a survey
conducted in the USA and the UK can be given. According to the survey, due to the COVID-
19 outbreak, generations Y and Z's behavior, such as reducing spending, stocking products, and
spending less on experiences, has changed more than other generations (Meyer, 2020).
Other essential resources on online shopping and epidemics are included in the Literature
Review section. Then, the impact of the pandemic on demand and sales was analyzed using
Amazon data. Our analyzes and their results are included in the Methods and Results parts.
Finally, in the discussion and conclusion section, a detailed comparison of the pre-pandemic
situation and the current situation on Amazon is made using the articles examined and our data.
2. Literature Review
Throughout history, societies have experienced many extraordinary events, such as natural
disasters and pandemics (Gulseven et al., 2020). It has been looked at how people's
consumption changed when these events happened. We can call the increase in demand caused
by abnormal events such as pandemics "panic buying" (Peck, 2006).
With the COVID-19 becoming a global epidemic, stockpiling and panic buying occurred
seriously at the beginning of the epidemic (Shanthakumar, Seetharam & Ramesh, 2020).
Consumers have changed their usual shopping behavior. For example, while hand sanitizers,
surgical masks, which are related to the pandemic and health, were rapidly depleted within a
few days in some countries, other products that were relatively less related to the pandemic
such as toilet paper, detergents, and pasta, were also rapidly depleted (Pantano et al., 2020).
Another main reason for panic buying and stocking behavior to occur, apart from the pandemic
environment, is closures and quarantines. Laato et al. (2020) found a strong link between the
quarantines and making unusual purchases and stated that the main reason people made unusual
purchases during the COVID-19 pandemic was to prepare for quarantine. As an example, a
study on New Zealand can be given. Hall et al. (2020) stated that grocery spending in New
Zealand increased significantly in mid-March compared to the same dates of the previous year,
and this caused stocking and panic.
If consumers prefer other goods instead of the goods and services they are used to due to the
abnormal event experienced, it is called consumption displacement (Datta et al., 2018). While
there is an increase in demand for masks or disinfectants due to the pandemic, plane tickets'
demand is reduced. This is an example of the displacement of consumption because travels
were restricted ("Travel restrictions," 2020).
Also, restaurants and cafes were forced to close, although there was a great demand for food
products in supermarkets (Nicola et al., 2020). Therefore, it is possible to deduce that online
shopping demand has increased due to closures. According to a survey conducted in one of the
studies on this subject, 52% of consumers said they avoided physical shopping and crowded
areas, and 36% said they would continue to avoid them until they were coronavirus vaccinated
(Bhatti et al., 2020).
According to the OECD report (2020), between February and April 2020, retail and food
services revenues in the United States declined by 7.7% relative to the same period in 2019,
while sales rose by 16% for grocery stores and 14.8% for non-store retailers (mostly e-
commerce providers). According to the same report, in the EU-27 countries, online retail sales
increased by 30% in April 2020 compared to the previous year's same date, while total retail
sales decreased by 17.9%.
To give an example via Amazon for our study, it has increased its order capacity by over 60
percent due to COVID-19 until April 12, 2020. The company hired 175,000 people from March
16 to April 12 to meet the increasing demand (Landry, 2020).
3. Methods
3.1 Data
In our study, we have used three different data sets. E-commerce net sales of Amazon, Stock
Prices of Amazon both in quarterly and weekly and weekly cases of Covid-19. For tabular data
analysis, E-commerce net sales data of Amazon is derived from Amazon's website. It consists
of 7 data from the start of the first quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2020. The second data
for tabular data analysis is from the Yahoo Finance dataset. It is created by converting weekly
Stock Prices of Amazon's data first to monthly data and then to quarterly data to better compare
with the first data group. It is also important to add for the last quarter of the second data, the
last week of December is not included since it has not been explained yet, so it is not the exact
number, but it is a very good proxy variable. In addition to weekly data of stock prices, weekly
Covid-19 cases are also derived from "Our World in Data" and these two data sets are used for
regression analysis and correlation.
3.2 Tabular Data Analysis

Table 1:

2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
E-commerce net sales of Amazon 12 16 22 15 25 49 37 -
(Y/Y growth, excluding F/X) %
Amazon Stock Price $1672 $1736 $1833 $1788 $1936 $2503 $1833 $3174

The tabular data analysis point is to show how net e-commerce sales of Amazon and the Stock
Prices of Amazon correlated. As can be seen from the table, an increase in net sales followed
by an increase in the stock prices and a decrease in the net sales followed by a decrease in stock
prices. The parallel change in these two variables is noticeable, but to make an exact
interpretation, we have also calculated the correlation and visualized it in part 3.3. Our purpose
of showing this correlation is to connect between changes in Covid-19 cases and net sales
changes using stock prices data, comparable with the weekly Covid-19 data set and quarterly
sales data set. From a macro perspective, this study tries to show how customer demand in e-
commerce is positively related to Covid-19.
3.3 Regression & Correlation
From Gretl, we have calculated the correlation between Amazon's stock prices and its net sales:
corr(sales,stock prices) = 0.86752954
Under the null hypothesis of no correlation:
t(5) = 3.9001, with two-tailed p-value 0.0114
Graph1:

As mentioned in tabular data analysis, it is shown both from the graph, and the correlation
calculation from Gretl stock prices are going in line with the net sales of Amazon.
Then, we conduct a time-series regression that shows the effect of COVİD-19 on the stock
prices of Amazon. The data that we have used in this analysis is weekly Covid-19 cases
and stock prices of Amazon week by week. The results are below:
Table 2:

VAR system, lag order 12

OLS estimates, observations 2020-04-26-2020-12-20 (T = 35)
Log-likelihood = -208.93093
Determinant of covariance matrix = 8964.5515
AIC = 12.7389
BIC = 13.3610
HQC = 12.9537

Equation 1: Stock price

Coefficient Std. Error t-ratio p-value

const 369.063 242.209 1.524 0.1425
Stockprice_1 0.827148 0.215490 3.838 0.0010 ***
Stockprice_2 0.234595 0.271136 0.8652 0.3967
Stockprice_3 −0.654754 0.272638 −2.402 0.0257 **
Stockprice_4 0.460825 0.281390 1.638 0.1164
Stockprice_5 0.105444 0.290700 0.3627 0.7204
Stockprice_6 −0.211140 0.297736 −0.7092 0.4860
Stockprice_7 0.379326 0.270708 1.401 0.1757
Stockprice_8 −0.177650 0.272374 −0.6522 0.5213
Stockprice_9 −0.305124 0.272157 −1.121 0.2749
Stockprice_10 0.387271 0.275116 1.408 0.1739
Stockprice_11 −0.176725 0.273167 −0.6469 0.5247
Stockprice_12 0.0158140 0.195048 0.08108 0.9361
Weeklycases 9.50540e-07 3.3082e-05 0.02873 0.9773
Mean dependent var 2999.775 SD dependent var 316.5323
Sum squared resid 313759.3 SE of regression 122.2331
R-squared 0.907895 Adjusted R-squared 0.850878
F(13, 21) 15.92319 P-value(F) 5.03e-08
rho −0.012252 Durbin-Watson 2.017130
F-tests of zero restrictions:
All lags of Stockprice F(12, 21) = 10.667 [0.0000]
All vars, lag 12 F(1, 21) = 0.0065735 [0.9361]
For the system as a whole
Null hypothesis: the longest lag is 11
Alternative hypothesis: the longest lag is 12
Likelihood ratio test: Chi-square(1) = 0.0109542 [0.9166]
Graph 2:

Stock Prices of Amazon and Covid-19 Cases

Correlation
Stock prıces per dollar

$4,000.00
$3,500.00
$3,000.00
$2,500.00
$2,000.00
$1,500.00
$1,000.00
$500.00
$-
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Weekly Covid-19 cases( As Millions)

4. Results

In this part of the study, we aim to make interpretations according to calculations and graphs
conducted in the methods part. First, just as mentioned in tabular data analysis, our goal is to
connect between change in Covid-19 cases and consumer demand using stock prices and net
sales data of Amazon. Since there is no available weekly net sales data of Amazon, we first
showed the relationship between net sales of Amazon for online shopping and stock prices of
the company with quarterly data. From the calculations of Gretl, the correlation between these
two variables is founded as 0.86752954. This number shows there is a high positive correlation
and graph one also makes this relationship visible. This correlation is the intermediate step to
connect Covid-19 cases to net sales, which is the primary consumer demand indicator.
Then, we have conducted a time series analysis from Gretl to understand the effect of Covid-
19 on the Stock Prices of Amazon. The model is chosen considering both the Akaike
Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Our data for this
analysis starts from February 2020 since the exact Covid-19 data considered primarily.
Calculations make it clear that although many other factors affect e-commerce in this period,
the effect of Covid-19 is important and cannot be ignored. The goodness of fit of the model we
have conducted is 0.907895. As shown in the time series analysis and graph 2, Covid-19
increased the demand for online shopping. The cause of stability after some point in graph 2
two is probably because of the effect of Covid-19 on online shopping, which reached its limits,
and other factors' effect on Amazon's e-commerce. This will be straightforwardly discussed in
the discussion part.
5. Discussion & Conclusion
The year 2020 has been a year of an unprecedented global economic crisis because of
coronavirus. As mentioned in the literature, harsh conditions that came with quarantine and
social distancing changed the shopping patterns remarkably. People start to shop online for their
basic needs, which led to a huge increase in E-commerce companies' sales. Taking Amazon,
changing habits during the Covid 19 outbreak expanded Amazon's already global business in
e-commerce, and Amazon reports record net sales of $ 75.5 billion in the first quarter of 2020
(Rikap, 2020). What this increase in sales meant? How this shift in consumer demand affected
the markets?
Since pandemic created high volatility in the financial sector, it shifted investors' behaviors and
consumers. Demand for most goods other than necessities is expected to decline in a pandemic
period. Investors realized that leisure tourism, supply chain, and transportation services would
be in a recession. Many airline companies will lose revenues. Hence, they shifted their
investments from these sectors to online entertainment (Netflix, HBO), online education
(Zoom, Skype), and online shopping sectors. (Tashanova et al., 2020) For the Amazon case,
what makes it so attractive for investors was its wide range of products from the online food
industry to entertainment products such as e-books, video, and games. Due to the predictions
of the increase in profitability and the jump in sales, the stock prices of Amazon increased
significantly.
Further, the overall tendency to lower interest rates worldwide has a positive impact on
investment decisions. With the increase in a pandemic, the Fed immediately lowered the interest
rate on excess reserves from 1.60 percent to 1.10 percent and e primary credit rate from 2.25
percent to 1.75 percent in March 2020. These rates lowered further in each period so that it was
0.10 for excess reserves and 0.25 for the primary credit rate (FRB, 2020). Most of the countries
followed the same policies in interest rates. The monetary policies applied in most of the world
increased the availability to take credit and increase online platforms' investments.
From the given information, there is no doubt that both monetary policies and consumers'
behavior shaped investor decisions positively about investing in online platforms, just like
Amazon. As our calculations and information above suggest, the increase in Covid-19 cases
and the measures that follow this increase cause a massive increase in the profits of Amazon.
However, if the case is so simple, how can we explain the durability after some point is clearly
shown in graph 2? At this point, the limitations of our study have to be recognized. We only
analyzed the effect of Covid-19 on the stock values of Amazon. We compared it with its sales
to understand the changes in demand of customers and changes in the profitability of Amazon.
While doing this, we aimed to generalize Amazon's case to overall online shopping platforms,
and it was no coincidence that we chose Amazon. Since it is the biggest e-commerce platform
in the world, it is the most generalizable one. However, it is essential to be aware of many other
factors that occurred because of the epidemic, and these effects also have repressive effects on
the stock prices of Amazon, and as a result, in its profits.
What are these factors that caused the increase to stop recently compared to previous periods
in Figure 2? We have summarized them in four factors. The first of these factors may be that
households who shop in panic at the beginning of the epidemic realize that they will not have
stock problems later and reduce their shopping spending to an average level. A study on this
topic also notes that as the number of cases increased, households began to change their typical
expenditures radically. Although initially spending increased sharply, especially on food
products, there was a sharp decline in overall spending later (Baker et al., 2020). Households
may not only be reduced their spending to normal levels in this sharp decline.
They may be spending less than their pre-pandemic expenditures, which is the second factor
we want to mention. This may be that people face economic problems such as fired, left without
pay, or reduced wages due to the pandemic. People who experience or are likely to experience
these tend to spend less and save more. Households that cannot predict how long the epidemic
will last can avoid risky behaviors such as investing. In fact, in countries with low social
protection systems, most households will even have to use their savings (Martin et al., 2020).
The third factor may be that some undeveloped or developing countries with a large population
do not have much demand for online shopping, which affects the average increase. These
countries' underlying reasons do not increase may be the cultural habits and distrust in online
transactions. For example, according to a study, most Indian consumers prefer to touch and feel
products despite discounts, free deliveries, or promotions offered by e-commerce retailers.
(Sharma & Jhamb, 2020). According to the same research, customers in India think that online
shopping is risky since there are online shopping sites with low information technologies that
cause personal information to be hacked. In general, consumers who have such an opinion can
take the same attitude towards reliable and industry-leading companies such as Amazon. For
these reasons, stores offering online shopping in such countries may not have increased their
sales further.
The last factor may be that there is already an increasing demand for online trading platforms
due to the digitalizing world in recent years, and this demand has almost reached the upper limit
for today. We want to state that we assume the upper limit we mentioned is specific to pandemic
conditions. Some of the factors that will negatively affect online shopping discussed above are
only due to the pandemic. If the COVID-19 virus had not appeared, perhaps the upper limit
would have been higher. As a result, all four factors mentioned above are factors that suppress
the increase in demand for online shopping and, therefore, the sales of companies providing
this service. We believe that the stock price will also be suppressed since there is a high
correlation between net sales and the stock price, as we showed in our study. In this way, we
think we can explain the stagnation in the last part of Figure 2.
In conclusion, our research shows a relationship between the spread of the COVID-19 virus
and Amazon's net sales, and we analyzed this relationship with the help of Amazon stock price
data. Since Amazon is one of the largest online shopping companies, we could make inferences
about people's general attitudes towards online shopping during the pandemic period due to our
analysis and research. In the introduction part, we mentioned which data we have chosen for
our analysis and briefly explained the steps we followed in our study. We have also given
general information about the changes over time of the three parameters we chose: the number
of COVID-19 cases, Amazon's net sales, and Amazon stock price. Then, in the literature review
section, we examined the articles written on our topic and found studies to support our research.
In this part, we focused more on the change in consumer behavior. Our goal was to address
whether the expenses increased and what kind of changes occurred in demanded products with
the pandemic. We have also included articles on what triggers these changes, whether the
change is permanent, and the reasons why behavior changes at different rates.
In the light of information and research of the introduction and literature part, we have
conducted some analysis to show the effect of Covid-19 on-demand on online shopping from
Amazon. We showed the correlation between net sales and stock prices of Amazon with
quarterly data and connected this correlation to changes in Covid-19 cases. This primary
indicator affects social life patterns nowadays, using stock prices again, but with the weekly
dataset. We aimed to show the positive impact of Covid-19 on online shopping demand by
using sales and stock price data of Amazon and generalize it. Calculations from time series
analysis showed that our model is consistent with what we have found in the literature and
compatible with our other calculations shown in Graph 1 and Graph 2. As mentioned in the
discussion part, this tends to increase in e-commerce demand was because of Covid-19
restrictions (like quarantine), fear of infection, and change in consumer purchase patterns due
to these restrictions.
The increase in consumer demand triggered an increase in investors' side, and stock prices
followed the same increase with sales. The part we cannot explain with regression analysis in
Graph 2 is a matter of discussion, and we have provided reasons for it in the discussion part.
For us, the underlying reasons for stability in stock prices after some period while Covid-19
precautions still maintain can be uncertainties and panic situation that causes people to spend
enormously at first, need of saving due to the deterioration in the economy, lack of certainty
and infrastructural problems in developing and underdeveloped countries, and the upper limit
that e-commerce reached in terms of online possibilities, at least for platforms like Amazon.
Overall, the conclusion we have reached is that what Covid-19 brought in our lives changed
our consumption patterns so that we stepped into an incredible era of technological
developments. Online shopping and its profit are just starting from the beginning of the digital
and financial era's groundbreaking developments.
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