TRIP-100163; No of Pages 12

Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 6 (2020) 100163

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives

journal homepage: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/transportation-research-
interdisciplinary-perspectives

Towards more sustainable transport in Metro Manila: A case study of

household vehicle ownership and energy consumption
⁎
Monorom Rith a,b, , Krister Ian Daniel Z. Roquel c, Neil Stephen A. Lopez a,
⁎⁎
Alexis M. Fillone c, , Jose Bienvenido Manuel M. Biona a,d
a
Mechanical Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401, Taft Ave, Malate, Manila, Metro Manila 1004, Philippines
b
Research and Innovation Center, Institute of Technology of Cambodia, Russian Conf. Blvd., Cambodia
c
Civil Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401, Taft Ave, Malate, Manila, Metro Manila 1004, Philippines
d
Enrique K. Razon Jr. Logistics Institute, De La Salle University, LTI Spine Road, Laguna Blvd, Biñan, Laguna 4024, Philippines

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Article history: Improvement of residential areas with low accessibility to crucial destinations (e.g., hospitals, schools, markets, and
Received 26 January 2020 recreation centers) is expected to improve traffic flow and reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions. This
Received in revised form 3 June 2020 study intends to evaluate the multi-criteria accessibility measure of residential areas to key destinations in Metro Ma-
Accepted 28 June 2020
nila, using the gravity method and applying it to understand its impact on household vehicle ownership and energy
Available online xxxx
consumption. The main findings suggest that improving residential area access to key services and facilities (i.e., hos-
Keywords:
pitals, schools, markets, and recreation centers) not only enhances the equitable development of society but also dis-
Accessibility courages household vehicle dependency. Additionally, the highest multi-criteria accessibility is observed for areas
Vehicle choice with the presence of high rail line density, specifically in the most populated part of Metro Manila because of many
Sustainable mobility educational institutions, medical centers and hospitals, and markets and shopping malls are located around the train
Gravity method stations and along the rail lines. Furthermore, households living in an area with high multi-criteria accessibility are
Copula function less likely to acquire and use vehicles. A 1% improvement of accessibility reduced the energy consumption by
Metro Manila 38.470 MJ/month-vehicle, CO2 emission by 2.851 kg/month-vehicle, and vehicle kilometers traveled by 12.043
km/month-vehicle. Based on the empirical findings, policy implications recommend building more key facilities in res-
idential areas having the lowest accessibility. The lowest accessibility areas are also geospatially visualized to support
policymakers and urban planners.

1. Introduction
The Philippines is an archipelagic country located in Southeast Asia.
The average annual economic growth of the country has been 6.6% during
the last three years (World Bank, 2019). Metro Manila is the national capi-
tal region of the Philippines, and the metropolis's Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) accounted for 38.13% of the national GDP (PSA Philippine
Statistics Authority, 2017). Metro Manila faces severe traffic congestion
in the region (Numbeo, 2018). About 50% of the roads operate already at
volume/capacity (V/C) ratios above 0.80 (ALMEC, 2014). The private vehi-
cles were responsible for 71.3% of vehicle trips in 2012, with an annual
growth rate of 3.3% on average from 1996 to 2012 (ALMEC, 2014).
Metro Manila accounts for 38.61% of the country's total cars from 2010
to 2016 on average, and its registered vehicles in the Land Transportation
Office (LTO) of Metro Manila increased from 1.35 million units in 2010
to 1.70 million units in 2016 with a growth rate of 1.58% per annum on
average (PSA Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017). The average travel
time of one person trip was 1.17 h in 2014 and will increase up to 1.33 h
in 2030 for the baseline scenario (ALMEC, 2014). Nowadays, the total gen-
eralized transport cost per day (i.e., operating and time costs) is PHP 3.5 bil-
lion, and it will increase up to PHP 5.4 billion in 2035 in the case of no
governmental intervention (JICA, 2018a). The CO2 emissions from the
road passenger transport sector within Metro Manila are 13.78 million
tonnes in 2015 and will increase up to 27.90 million tonnes in 2040
based on the business-as-usual scenario (Ahanchian and Biona, 2014).
The government is addressing those issues by constructing more roads, sky-
ways, and urban rail lines to reduce travel time and relieve traffic conges-
tion, and this solution is a critical component of the “Build!Build!Build”
program (i.e., the comprehensive infrastructure development program)
launched by the national government in April 2017 (JICA, 2018b). How-
ever, building more roads and skyways is associated with increasing private
vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT), which is consistent with higher energy

⁎ Correspondence to: M. Rith, Mechanical Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401, Taft Ave, Malate, Manila, Metro Manila 1004, Philippines.
⁎⁎ Correspondence to: A.M. Fillone, Civil Engineering Department, De La Salle University, 2401, Taft Ave, Malate, Manila, Metro Manila 1004, Philippines.
E-mail addresses: rith_monorom@dlsu.edu.ph, (M. Rith), alexis.fillone@dlsu.edu.ph. (A.M. Fillone).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100163
2590-1982/© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/
4.0/).
M. Rith et al.
demand and more CO2 emissions (Rith et al., 2019a). At present, some of
the local roads cannot afford to carry a high volume of vehicles coming
from the expressways, specifically at off-ramps (Ang and Fillone, 2018).
Regarding the transport perspective, the reduction of private vehicle de-
pendency is a good pathway to achieve sustainable mobility. Discourage-
ment of private vehicle usage is highly expected to increase percentage
shares of non-motorized modes (i.e., cycling and walking) and public trans-
port modes (i.e., Jeepneys, trains, buses) that contribute to the improve-
ment of traffic flow, energy saving, mobile emission abatement, and
social equity. Regidor et al. (2017) looked at the development of some com-
prehensive rail networks, and the result highlighted that some commuters
were attracted out of cars, thereby improving traffic flow. Roxas et al.
(2018) empirically showed that the improvement of comfort, reliability,
and speed of urban rail mode could incline some commuters to shift from
the private car choice to the rail transit mode choice, therefore reducing
the CO2 and atmospheric pollutant emissions. ADB (2017a) and Regidor
and Javier (2014) emphasized the significance of the management of own-
ership, usage, and energy intensity of private vehicles. Ahanchian and
Biona (2014) emphasized that the CO2 emissions from the road passenger
transport sector in Metro Manila could be abated through the improvement
of fuel quality, shifting buses from diesel to compressed natural gas (CNG),
and shifting motorcycles and tricycles from the two-stroke engine to the
four-stroke engine. An increase in gas price discourages private car usage
(Rith et al., 2020; Fillone et al., 2007) but triggers an increase in prices of
the finished products, thereby possibly forcing more households to live
below the poverty line (Roquel et al., 2018). Mateo-Babiano (2016) applied
the Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) to understand the pedestrian deci-
sion-making and behavior and to investigate the relative priorities of envi-
ronmental attributes of satisfying the pedestrian needs in Metro Manila.
The findings are informative to the design of pedestrian facilities that can
encourage more people to participate in walking-related activities. Building
a compact city can encourage people to own smaller cars and drive fewer
kilometers (Rith et al., 2018).
However, comprehensive land use plans in Metro Manila are rarely re-
alized due to the lack of strong mechanisms for their implementation
(Magno-Ballesteros, 2000). The inequitable accessibility of different resi-
dential areas to multiple key services and facilities may be argued to be
one of the main driving factors of private car dependency. More equitable
distribution of services and facilities throughout Metro Manila could
serve to discourage private car ownership and usage and thus is a key strat-
egy towards improving traffic flow, reducing CO2 and pollutant emissions,
and addressing climate change. To the best of our knowledge, the evalua-
tion of multi-criteria accessibility measure of residential area has remained
unexplored mainly in Metro Manila probably due to the limited data of key
facilities for regular destinations. Multi-criteria accessibility refers to the ac-
cessibility of residential areas to various key facilities such as hospitals and
medical centers, educational institutions, public markets and supermarkets,
and social, recreation and shopping centers.
The current study intends to evaluate the multi-criteria accessibility
measure of critical destinations at the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level
using the gravity method based on the distance. The primary dataset is
used, and Metro Manila is featured. Afterward, the developed accessibility
index is used to investigate its impact on household vehicle ownership and
energy consumption by taking into account other factors (i.e., socio-eco-
nomic characteristics and built environment attributes). Also, the inte-
grated household vehicle ownership and energy consumption model was
applied to explore the elasticity of energy consumption, CO2 emissions,
and VKT in response to a 1% improvement of multi-criteria accessibility. Fi-
nally, the empirical findings are used to support policy implications. The
findings of this study are beneficial to aid urban planners and transport
policymakers in designing consistent policies for the equitable develop-
ment of society and the improvement of sustainable mobility and
urbanization.
The rest of this paper is structured as follows. Section 2 describes the
methodology and data sources. Section 3 shows the results of the multi-
criteria accessibility measure and the estimation results of the integrated
2
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 6 (2020) 100163
household vehicle ownership and usage model. Section 4 provides novel
policy implications based on the empirical findings for sustainable mobility
and urbanization and equity in social development. Section 5 concludes the
findings and provides directions for future research.
2. Methodology and data sources
2.1. Study area
The population in Metro Manila increased from 11.86 million people in
2010 to 12.88 million people in 2015 with an average annual growth rate
of 1.72% (PSA Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017). The area of the me-
tropolis is 619.54 km2, which translates to a population density of 20,785
persons/km2 in 2015, and the density increased by 62% over that in
1990 (PSA, 2018). Fig. 1 geospatially illustrates the population density at
the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level, and the population is based on the na-
tional census conducted in 2015 (PSA Philippine Statistics Authority,
2017), while the area of each TAZ is obtained from MUCEP (2015). As ap-
parent from the figure, 41.27% of Metro Manila's total TAZ numbers had a
population density above 20,000 persons/km2 in 2015. Correspondingly,
Metro Manila can be considered as a densely populated metropolis.
2.2. Accessibility
Accessibility is a measure of potential opportunities (Hansen, 1959) or
the ease of reaching points of interest, and the number of opportunities
can be jobs or other facilities, e.g., hospitals and medical centers, educa-
tional institutions, recreation centers, and markets and shopping malls
(Geurs and Wee, 2004; Vickerman, 1974). There are four different main
measures of accessibility: 1) the distance to the nearest point of interest,
2) cumulative opportunities with an access travel distance interval or
time threshold, 3) gravity/entropy model denominator, and 4) expected
maximum random utility-based measure (Miller, 2018). The cumulative
opportunity model is a commonly used method for a measure of accessibil-
ity thanks to its ease in communication (Grisé et al., 2019), but the accessi-
bility measure is significantly varied for a given change of the distance
interval and travel time threshold. The gravity and cumulative opportunity
methods are highly correlated, and researchers can use either method as
necessary (Manaugh and El-Geneidy, 2011). In our study, we used the grav-
ity method to evaluate the accessibility to key destinations, and the distance
decay was used as the impedance because the accessibility exponentially
decreases if the travel distance linearly increases. The accessibility measure
for each key facility is expressed as Eq. (1):
X 1
Accessibilityi;k ¼ ð1Þ
j¼1
expdi; j;k
where the indices i, j, and k are the residential area, point of interest, and
facility type, respectively. d refers to the distance in kilometer (km).
For the multi-criteria accessibility measure, it is calculated as a function
of the important weight of the facility because trip numbers going to differ-
ent destinations are different, and people score different importance rates
for different facility types. For instance, people go to school more often
than a hospital, but they might think that the hospital is more important
than school (i.e., social perspective mainstreamed in accessibility to a facil-
ity type). Correspondingly, the multi-criteria accessibility is calculated
using Eq. (2):
XX Wk
Multi−criteria accessibilityi ¼ ð2Þ
j¼1 k¼1
expdi; j;k
where Wk is the importance weight of each facility type.
The key facilities considered in our study are 1) hospital and medical
center, 2) educational institution (i.e., primary school, secondary school,
and college), 3) public market and supermarket, and 4) social, recreation,
and shopping centers. Villaraza (2018) generated importance weight for
M. Rith et al. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 6 (2020) 100163

Fig. 1. Geospatial distribution of population density in 2015.

each main facility in Metro Manila by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Pro- 2.3. Household vehicle ownership and usage
cess (AHP) method, and the importance weights of key facilities for our
study, therefore, are adopted from Villaraza (2018). The importance The developed multi-criteria accessibility measure is then used as one of
weights of the four main facility types are tabulated in Table 1. It is not sur- the factors of the joint household vehicle ownership and usage model. The
prising to see that the importance weight of social, recreation, and shopping joint model formulation of household vehicle ownership and energy con-
centers is higher than that of the hospital and medical center because sumption is illustrated in Fig. 2. In our study, only the number of vehicles
Filipinos go to the former more often than the latter. owned by households were considered, while vehicle type choice was not
taken into account. Vehicles refer to hatchback, sedan, CUV, SUV, wagon,
minivan, van, and pickup, while motorcycles are excluded because motor-
Table 1 cycles are not the main driver of traffic congestion and high energy demand
Important weight of each destination. in Metro Manila. The number of households was categorized into zero vehi-
(Adopted from Villaraza, 2018) cles, one vehicle, and two vehicles. Energy consumption (MJ/month-
Facility Important weight household) was used as the output variable of household vehicle usage.
Hospital and medical care center 20.9% Household vehicle ownership is the discrete choice, while household vehi-
Educational institution 32.9% cle usage is the continuous choice. Household vehicle ownership and usage
Public market and supermarket 10.7% are typically inter-dependent (Cirillo et al., 2017; Liu and Cirillo, 2016; Liu
Social, recreation and shopping facility 35.5% et al., 2014; Spissu et al., 2009; Bhat et al., 2009). In our study, we used the
Gaussian copula-based multinomial logit (MNL)-linear regression frame-
work to develop the integrated household vehicle ownership and usage
model.
For the MNL model (Hensher et al., 2005; Train, 2003; McFadden,
1974):
Household vehicle
ownership and usage
expðβt 0 xnt Þ
F ðεnt Þ ¼ Prðt Þ ¼ X ð3Þ
0
expðβt xnt Þ þ expðβM 0 xnM Þ
Zero vehicles One vehicle Two vehicles M≠t

(Bundle 0)
where the indices t and n are an alternative and a choice maker, respectively
Energy consumption Energy consumption (t and M ∈ T). T is a finite choice set. εnt is the unobserved term, and F(εnt) is
(One vehicle) (Two vehicles) the implied cumulative distribution of the random error term, xnt is a col-
(Bundle 1) (Bundle 2) umn vector of explanatory variables including a constant, and βt is a column
vector of the corresponding coefficients for an alternative t.
For the linear regression model (Johnson et al., 1994):
Fig. 2. Model formulation of household vehicle ownership and energy Energy consumption is positive, and therefore, we assumed the house-
consumption. hold energy consumption to be log-normally distributed or the logarithm

3
M. Rith et al. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 6 (2020) 100163

of energy consumption is normally distributed. The probability density and Table 2

cumulative distribution functions of the standard normal distribution are Distribution of household vehicle ownership.
expressed in Eqs. (4) and (5), respectively. Household income Household vehicle ownership
  (PHP/month)
No One Two Total
1 ln ðlnt Þ−α0 ynt
f ðηnt Þ ¼ Prð ln ðLnt Þ ¼ ln ðlnt ÞÞ ¼ ϕ ð4Þ vehicles vehicle vehicles
σt σt
0–49,999 39.94% 2.90% 0.00% 42.84%
  50,000–100,000 13.09% 25.85% 1.11% 40.06%
ln ðlnt Þ−α0 ynt
F ðηnt Þ ¼ Prð ln ðLnt Þ≤ ln ðlnt ÞÞ ¼ Φ ð5Þ >100,000 3.34% 9.92% 3.84% 17.10%
σt Total 56.38% 38.66% 4.96% 100.00%

where ϕ and Φ are the probability density function and cumulative distribu-
tion function of the standard normal distribution, respectively. l and L are
the amounts of energy consumed by a household, ynt is a column vector
of the explanatory variables including a constant, α is a column vector of
the corresponding coefficients and the generic parameters of energy con-
sumption of bundles 1 and 2, and ηnt defines the unobserved term. σ is
the standard deviation of energy consumption.
As apparent from Fig. 2, Bundle 0 has the only discrete choice, no con-
tinuous choice because zero-vehicle households do not consume energy for
household vehicle usage. The probability functions, Pr, of Bundle 0, Bundle
1, and Bundle 2 are expressed as Eqs. (6)–(8), respectively (Spissu et al.,
2009; Nguyen et al., 2017; Rith et al., 2019a):n
Pr0 ¼ PrðT ¼ 0Þ ¼ F ðεn0 Þ ð6Þ
Pr1 ¼ PrðT ¼ 1; ln ðLn1 Þ ¼ ln ðln1 ÞÞ
∂C θ ð F ðεn1 Þ; F ðηn1 ÞÞ
¼ ð f ðηn1 ÞÞ ð7Þ
∂ F ðηn1 Þ
Pr2 ¼ PrðT ¼ 2; ln ðLn2 Þ ¼ ln ðln2 ÞÞ
∂C θ ð F ðεn2 Þ; F ðηn2 ÞÞ
¼ ð f ðηn2 ÞÞ ð8Þ
∂ F ðηn2 Þ
The partial derivative of the Gaussian copula function is expressed as
Eq. (9) (Bhat and Eluru, 2009; Lee, 1983):
 −1 
∂C θ ð F ðεnt Þ; F ðηnt ÞÞ Φ ð F ðεnt ÞÞ−θΦ−1 ð F ðηnt ÞÞ
¼Φ pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ð9Þ
∂ F ðηnt Þ 1−θ2
where θ is the dependency parameter representing the linkage between the
two univariate distributions. The dependency parameter of the Gaussian
function ranges from −1 to +1. By substituting Eqs. (6) through (9) in
Eq. (10), the parameters of the Gaussian copula-based discrete and contin-
uous choice model can be estimated using the maximum likelihood estima-
tion approach as expressed below:
X
N X
2
LLjoint ¼ RnT ½ PrT  ð10Þ
n¼1 T¼0
where LLjoint is the log-likelihood function of the joint model, and RnT [RnT
= 1] defines the dummy variable of a chosen bundle type, T, made by a
household, n.
R programming language was written to estimate the parameters by
maximizing the log-likelihood value of Eq. (10) using the Newton Raphson
type optimization routine (Rith et al., 2019).
2.4. Data sources
For evaluation of accessibility measure, there are 655 licensed hospitals
(DoH, 2018), 508 primary schools and 310 secondary schools (DepEd,
2017), and 203 colleges (CHED, 2018) with official addresses located in
Metro Manila. The list of 333 markets (i.e., 87 public markets and 246 su-
permarkets) and 161 recreation centers (i.e., shopping malls) in Metro Ma-
nila were obtained from the pop-up menu of Google Maps since there exists
no official list with addresses from any government departments or agen-
cies. The CDXDistance2WP function of the CDXZipStream tool was used
to approximate the distance from a residential area to a point of interest.
1 US$ = 50 PHP.
The center points of the TAZs were used as the coordinates of the residential
areas.
Metro Manila consists of sixteen cities and one municipality, and the
city of Manila is the most crowded place in Metro Manila (PSA Philippine
Statistics Authority, 2017). The questionnaire forms were distributed to
each city based on the population distribution. For household vehicle own-
ership and usage, the sample data of 1795 households were gathered in var-
ious TAZs from April through May 2017 in Metro Manila. The sample size
of 1795 households provides a confidence interval of 95% with a margin of
error of 3.48% if the standard deviation is assumed to be 0.5, based on the
Cochran formula. The distribution of household vehicle numbers by house-
hold income stratum is listed in Table 2. A 56.38% share of the surveyed
households have no vehicles, while one-vehicle and two-vehicle house-
holds accounted for 38.66% and 4.96% of the data sample, respectively.
Households having a monthly household income above PHP 100,000 was
17.10%.
The distribution of household energy consumption by household vehi-
cle number is tabulated in Table 3. The largest percentage share (59.22%)
of one-vehicle households belonged to the 2000–4000 MJ/month thresh-
old, while the largest percentage share (35.96%) of two-vehicle households
belonged to the 4000–6000 MJ/month threshold. The monthly energy con-
sumption for household vehicles was derived from the expenditure on gas
in monetary value. The retail pump prices were 47 PHP/l (i.e., 50 PHP
= 1 USD) for gasoline RON97 and 30 PHP/l for diesel in Metro Manila in
April 2017 (DOE (Department of Energy), 2018), and these unit costs of
the fuels were used in our study. The energy density is 34.2 MJ/l for gaso-
line (Golnik, 2003) and 38.6 MJ/l for diesel (Nektalova, 2008). Corre-
spondingly, the average energy consumption per vehicle was
3522 MJ/month (SD = 55.07). The fuel economies were 9.762 km/l (SD
= 2.281) for the gasoline passenger car and 13.825 km/l (SD = 4.102)
for the diesel passenger car in Metro Manila (adopted from Abaya et al.,
2018). On that account, the average vehicle usage was 1103 km/month
(SD = 21.23), or the energy consumption rate of a passenger car in
Metro Manila was 3.193 MJ/km (SD = 2.59).
The descriptive statistics of the explanatory variables taken into account
for the development of the joint household vehicle ownership and energy
consumption model are presented in Table 4. The average distance from a
residential area to the nearest train station was 1.17 km, while the average
distance from a residential area to the shortest central business district
Table 3
Distribution of household energy consumption.
Energy consumption (MJ/month) Household vehicle ownership
One vehicle Two vehicles
0–2000 17.44% 2.25%
2000-4000 59.22% 24.72%
4000-6000 12.68% 35.96%
6000-8000 6.48% 22.47%
8000-10,000 3.46% 5.62%
12,000-14,000 0.43% 6.74%
14,000-16,000 0.29% 2.25%
Total 100.00% 100.00%

4
M. Rith et al. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 6 (2020) 100163

Table 4
Descriptive statistics of the independent variables.
Variable Description Mean SD Min Max Counts

Household characteristics
No. of household members The number of family members 3.355 1.261 1 11 1795
No. of income earners The number of working adults in the family 1.817 0.834 0 6 1795
No. of OFWs The number of oversea Filipino workers in the family 0.115 0.371 0 3 1795
No. of preschoolers The number of preschoolers in the family 0.213 0.499 0 3 1795
No. of basic education school children The number of children studying at the kindergarten through grade 12 (K−12) 0.614 0.929 0 5 1795
No. of household college students The number of children studying at colleges 0.202 0.494 0 3 1795
No. of elderly people The number of household members aged 60 or above 0.201 0.532 0 2 1795
Age of household head Dummy variable (1 = if the household head aged 40 or above; 0 = otherwise) 0.679 0.467 0 1 1795
Educational level of the household head Dummy variable (1 = if hold a bachelor degree or higher, 0 = otherwise) 0.575 0.494 0 1 1795
Homeownership Dummy variable (1 = if own a house, 0 = otherwise) 0.612 0.487 0 1 1795
Monthly household income (PHP/month) Combined incomes of all household income earners per month 65,933 59,175 2500 300,000 1795

Urban form attributes

Multi-criteria accessibility a Multi-criteria accessibility of residential areas to key destinations at the TAZ level 8.924 2.392 1.126 13.129 1795
Railway station b Distance from residential areas to the shortest train station (km) 1.169 1.721 0.025 14.295 1795
Road public transport density c Road-based public transport line density at the TAZ level (10 km/km2) 2.701 2.985 0 15.422 1795
Road density c Road density at the TAZ level (10 km/km2) 0.927 0.393 0.042 2.820 1795
Population density c Population density at the TAZ level in 2017 (104 persons/km2) 4.208 1.716 0.152 14.785 1795
Central business district (CBD) b Distance from home to the shortest CBD (km) 4.697 2.651 0.237 19.100 1795

Vehicle cost and gas expenditure

Gas expenditure Monthly expenditure on gas (PHP/month) 4409 1321 716 12,857 344
Vehicle cost Vehicle cost when purchased (PHP/vehicle) 786,488 349,643 200,000 3,615,000 344

1 US$ = 50 PHP.
TAZ: Traffic analysis zone.
a
Multi-criteria accessibility measure was evaluated using Eq. (2).
b
The distance from residential areas to the shortest train station and the distance from residential areas to the shortest CBD was calculated by the authors using the
CDXDistance2WP function of the CDXZipStream tool.
c
The road-based public transport line density, road density, and population density were based on MUCEP (2015).

(CBD) was 4.70 km. There are eight different central business districts
(CBDs) in the metropolis, i.e., Manila CBD, Bay Area CBD, Makati CBD,
Global City CBD, Ortigas CBD, Eastwood CBD, Cubao CBD, and EDSA
North CBD. There are 67 railway stations from 4 lines under operation
(i.e., LRT-1, LRT-2, MRT, and PNR) in the metropolis, and Fig. 3 illustrates
the current urban rail transit network for passengers compared to the main
motorways in Metro Manila.

3. Results and discussion

3.1. Multi-criteria accessibility

Fig. 4 depicts the evaluation of the multi-criteria accessibility measure

Fig. 3. The rail transit network and main motorways in Metro Manila.
at the TAZ level. As evident from the figure, the highest multi-criteria acces-
sibility is observed in TAZs having high rail line density (see Fig. 3), specif-
ically in the city of Manila (i.e., the most crowded place of Metro Manila).
This could be explained by the fact that more educational institutions, med-
ical centers and hospitals, markets, and shopping malls are mostly located
around the train stations and along the rail lines. Similar findings of job ac-
cessibility in Montreal and Toronto, Canada that accessibility is typically
higher along the subway lines and very few areas along the subway lines
have low accessibility were also reported in the literature (Grisé et al.,
2019). A TAZ located in the north of Metro Manila also has the highest
multi-criteria accessibility because a special economic zone, called Victoria
Wave Special Economic Zone, is located in that TAZ, and there are many
schools and prestigious hospitals and medical centers in it. The multi-
criteria accessibility measure becomes lower as the distance from the down-
town of the city of Manila increases. Some TAZs far from the city center of
Manila are still observed to have high accessibility (i.e., accessibility of 9–
12 threshold) as there are CBDs located in those TAZs, and CBD is generally
known as the embodiment of mixed land use. The lowest accessibility (i.e.,
accessibility of 0–3 threshold) is observed in TAZs that are farthest from the
city center of Manila, specifically those located in southern, northern, and
northeastern Metro Manila.

5
M. Rith et al.
Fig. 4. Multi-criteria accessibility measure at the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level.
3.2. Household vehicle ownership and energy consumption
The evaluated multi-criteria accessibility measure is hypothesized to af-
fect household vehicle ownership and usage decision on the matter at hand,
and this factor, along with socioeconomic characteristics and other urban
form attributes, was included in the joint household vehicle ownership
and usage model. Furthermore, gas price and vehicle cost are considered
as the input variables. The initial estimation of the Gaussian copula-based
joint model did not converge, and the standard errors of some parameter es-
timates became not a number (NaN). A possible explanation is that the sam-
ple size of the study (i.e., 1795 observations) is not enough to handle a large
number of alternatives and factors. To address these issues, we decided to
use generic parameters for the energy consumption, and remove some fac-
tors having no or trivial correlation with the output variables and some fac-
tors having a high correlation with other factors. The Pearson product-
moment correlation approach was applied in our study.
Table 5 presents the streamlined model estimation results. Only statisti-
cally significant parameter estimates at the 0.10 significant level (or p-value
>0.10) were inserted in the model, and the backward elimination approach
was carried out to remove the insignificant coefficients. At the maximum
likelihood of model estimation convergence, the log-likelihood value was
−1196.068, and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value was
2450.137 (see the last two rows of the table). The intercept coefficients of
6
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 6 (2020) 100163
the discrete choice component are considered to capture the average unob-
served effect and have no interpretable meaning (Train, 2003).
Rows 5 through 10 of Table 5 show the estimated coefficients of the
household characteristics. Unlike the findings in other countries (Jiang et
al., 2017; Soltani, 2017; Yang et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2014), household
size, number of working adults, and the presence of elderly people in the
family had a non-existent relationship with the household vehicle owner-
ship and usage in Metro Manila. The same finding was found for the num-
ber of Oversea Filipino Workers (OFWs) in the household. It is interesting to
note that the presence of preschoolers in the family discourages household
vehicle ownership because the presence of preschoolers in the family im-
plies the family start-up stage. Therefore, the combined income might not
be enough to afford the acquisition of a car. However, vehicle-owning fam-
ilies with the presence of preschoolers are likely to consume more energy
because those households are associated with more preschooler-related
trip activities. The same findings were found in the US (Fang, 2008). The
presence of K-12 school children in a family has no impact on household ve-
hicle ownership level but is likely to encourage vehicle usage among vehi-
cle-owning households. Households with the presence of children studying
at colleges appear to be most likely to acquire two vehicles and consume
more energy as the presence of college children is relevant to the status of
more household adults. The coefficient of the age of household head indi-
cated that older households (household head aged 40 years and above) be-
came more likely than younger households (household head aged
<40 years) to hold two vehicles. The presence of well-educated household
heads (earned at least a bachelor's degree) inclines households to acquire
more vehicles. Families living in their private dwellings are typically likely
to own more vehicles, and the same findings were found in Jinan, China
(Jiang et al., 2017) and Shiraz city, Iran (Soltani, 2017).
Rows 12 through 17 of Table 5 show the estimated coefficients of the
urban form attributes, gas price/income ratio, and vehicle cost/income
ratio. It is noteworthy that households residing in higher multi-criteria ac-
cessibility areas have a lower likelihood of acquiring and using private ve-
hicles. Based on the correlation approach, the accessibility has a strong
negative correlation with the distance from home to the nearest railway sta-
tion (correlation coefficient = −0.75) and a high positive correlation with
the population density (correlation coefficient = 0.61). Consequently, this
empirical finding is consistent with the findings of previous studies that
households residing in an area close to train stations and with high popula-
tion density are less likely to acquire and use private vehicles (Wang et al.,
2018; Yang et al., 2015; Spissu et al., 2009). Similarly, mixed land use is
found to discourage vehicle ownership and usage (Wang et al., 2018;
Jiang et al., 2017; Soltani, 2017). Not surprisingly, households living in res-
idential areas with higher road density have a higher baseline preference to
own more vehicles since roadside parking is rampant in the residential
areas of Metro Manila. Jiang et al. (2017) also confirmed that the availabil-
ity of illegal road parking incentivizes households to acquire more vehicles.
Households living closer to CBDs are found more likely than those living
farther from CBDs to hold and use private vehicles because households re-
siding in CBDs or closer to CBDs have a higher income than those living far-
ther from CBDs. In short, well-off households mostly live in CBDs. The
coefficients of gas expenditure/income and vehicle cost/income ratios sug-
gest that higher-income households are associated with a higher propensity
to acquire more vehicles and consume more energy. The same findings also
reported that household income is the main driver of household vehicle
ownership and usage (Chakrabarti and Joh, 2019; Choudhary et al.,
2017; Jiang et al., 2017; Liu et al., 2014; Bhat et al., 2009; Fang, 2008).
However, an increase in gas price and vehicle cost can reduce vehicular en-
ergy demand and discourage household vehicle ownership, respectively. A
similar finding is confirmed that an increase in vehicle operating cost de-
creases VKT (Nguyen et al., 2017; Liu et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2013;
West, 2004).
Row 18 of Table 5 are the estimated coefficients of dependency param-
eters between the discrete and continuous choices for bundles 1 and 2.
Spissu et al. (2009) and Habib et al., 2009) theoretically mentioned that
the negative coefficient implies the positive correlation between discrete
M. Rith et al. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 6 (2020) 100163

Table 5
Model estimation results–coefficients (standard error).
Variables Discrete choice Continuous choice

One vehicle Two vehicles Energy consumption (MJ)

Intercept 5.255 (0.571)*** 4.355 (0.982)*** 8.585 (0.094)***

Household characteristics
No. of preschoolers −0.313 (0.179). −1.370 (0.603)* 0.109 (0.037)**
No. of basic education school children – – 0.049 (0.02)*
No. of household college students – 0.291 (0.172). 0.091 (0.031)**
Age of household head – 0.763 (0.339)* –
Educational level of household head 1.441 (0.189)*** 1.742 (0.406)*** –
Homeownership 0.844 (0.172)*** 0.997 (0.333)** –
Urban form attributes
Multi-criteria accessibility −0.621 (0.046)*** −0.664 (0.071)*** −0.036 (0.008)***
Road density (10 km/km2) 1.981 (0.27)*** 2.295 (0.366)*** –
Central business district (km) −0.284 (0.032)*** −0.345 (0.054)*** −0.018 (0.006)**
Gas price and vehicle cost
10×gas expenditure/monthly income a – – −0.456 (0.053)***
Vehicle cost/annual income a −1.419 (0.128)*** −4.382 (0.439)*** –
Dependency parameter −0.257 (0.101)* −0.873 (0.032)***
Standard deviation
One vehicle 0.466 (0.013)***
Two vehicles 0.549 (0.032)***
Maximum likelihood estimation
Log-likelihood value: −1196.07
Akaike Information Criterion: 2450.14

Bundle 0 was used as the reference category for the discrete choice element.
Only significant coefficients at the 0.1 significant level are included in the streamlined model.
Significance level codes: ‘***’ 0.001; ‘**’ 0.01; ‘*’ 0.05; ‘.’ 0.1.
a
based on Bhat et al. (2009)

and continuous choices and vice versa. The negative coefficients, therefore,
suggest that households owning vehicles are more prone to consume more
energy, and two-vehicle households appear to be more likely than one-ve-
hicle households to consume energy. Similar findings are recorded that
people owning larger vehicles are more likely to put on more kilometers
than those owning smaller vehicles (Nguyen et al., 2017; Spissu et al.,
2009). Rows 19–21 of Table 5 are the standard deviation (or scale parame-
ter) of energy consumption by household vehicle numbers.
3.3. Model applications
Multi-criteria accessibility, gas price, and vehicle cost conversely af-
fected household vehicle ownership and usage decision, and these factors
can be applied to suppress private vehicle dependency. Correspondingly,
the developed model was applied to simulate the output variables for a
given change in those three input variables of interest. Each variable was as-
sumed to increase by 25% and 50%. Table 6 shows the effect of variation in
those variables on the percentage changes in private passenger vehicle
stock and energy consumption. The simulated results emphasized that the
vehicle fleet and energy consumption would have been 24.6% and 57.4%
less than the current levels, respectively had the multi-criteria accessibility
been improved by 50%. Improvement of multi-criteria accessibility was
found to be the most efficient as compared to increases in gas price and ve-
hicle cost to cut back household vehicle numbers and energy consumption.
An increase in vehicle cost can reduce private vehicle stock and energy de-
mand for passenger mobility and at a higher degree relative to gas price. In-
creases in gas price by 25% and 50% could reduce vehicle usage by 6.11%
and 11.75%, respectively. A study in the US reported that vehicle usage was
reduced by 9.91% and 19.60% when the operating cost was increased by
25% and 50%, respectively (Liu et al., 2014). The average household in-
come growth in Metro Manila was 2.15% per annum from 2010 to 2015
(PSA Philippine Statistics Authority, 2017), and this growth indicates a
trend of growing private vehicle stock in the case of no intervention from
the government.
The developed model of joint household vehicle ownership and energy
consumption was applied to calculate the elasticity of energy consumption,
CO2 emissions, and VKT in response to increases in 1% gas price, 1% vehi-
cle cost, and 1% improvement of multi-criteria accessibility, see Table 7. As
can be seen from the last column of the table, the energy consumption
would have been reduced by 0.254% and 0.380% had the gas price and ve-
hicle cost been raised by 1% and 1%, respectively (see the last column of
Table 7). The empirical finding in the US showed that a 1% gas price in-
crease reduced the vehicle emissions by 0.136%, while the tax on vehicle
age by 1% increase lessened the emissions by 0.434% (West, 2004). On
that account, households in Metro Manila were about two times more re-
sponsive to gas price increase than households in the US, but those two
household groups were comparably responsive to the vehicle price in-
crease. Noticeably, a 1% increase in multi-criteria accessibility reduced en-
ergy consumption by 1.359%.
In other words, an increase in 1% accessibility decreased energy con-
sumption by 38.470 MJ/month per vehicle (see the second column of
Table 7). The CO2 emission factor is 74.10 tons/TJ (ADB, 2017b), and
this emission factor was used in our study. Therefore, a 1% increase in ac-
cessibility reduced the CO2 emission by 2.851 kg/month per vehicle (see
the third column of Table 7). Had the accessibility been enriched by 1%,
the VKT would have declined by 12.043 km/month per vehicle.

Table 6
Percentage changes (%) in vehicle fleet and energy consumption. Table 7
Impact of 1% increase of variables of interest on vehicle usage per vehicle.
What-if scenario analysis Vehicle fleet (%) Energy consumption (%)
1% increase Energy consumption CO2 VKT % change in
Multi-criteria ccessibility 50% increase −24.6% −57.4%
(MJ/month) (kg/month) (km/month) vehicle usage
25% increase −13.0% −31.9%
Gas price 50% increase 0.0% −11.7% Multi-criteria −38.47 −2.851 −12.043 −1.359%
25% increase 0.0% −6.1% accessibility
Vehicle cost 50% increase −9.1% −16.8% Gas price −7.11 −0.527 −2.226 −0.254%
25% increase −4.9% −8.9% Vehicle cost −10.70 −0.792 −3.348 −0.380%

7
M. Rith et al.
The displaced private car users due to the improvement of accessibility
and increases in gas price and vehicle purchase cost will be mostly catered
by Public Utility Jeepneys (PUJs), followed by buses and trains in Metro
Manila. This is because PUJs, buses, and trains are responsible for
71.78%, 22.31%, and 5.91% of the total passenger kilometers traveled
(PKT), respectively (Rith et al., 2019). The road-based public transport
line density is 30.41 km/km2 on average in Metro Manila (MUCEP,
2015), while there are only four rail lines that are currently operated. How-
ever, the percentage share of trains will increase shortly because two rail
lines (i.e., line 7 with the length of 22.8 km and line 9 with the length of
36 km) are under construction, and the existing lines 1 and 2 are being ex-
tended (Camus, 2020; DOTr, 2020). Expanding the train lines is associated
with the reduction of distance from residential areas to train stations, and
this solution contributes to a considerable reduction of vehicular energy de-
mand and CO2 emissions (Rith et al., 2019). Similarly, commuting car trips
from home to work would have cut back by 2.68% had the distance from
home to the nearest train station been <800 m (Rith et al., 2019e). Further-
more, the reduction of private car dependency might be replaced by active
modes (i.e., cycling and walking) if the distance from home to key destina-
tions is <1 km. As evident from a study of travel mode choice for basic
education students (i.e., k-12 students), 83.41% of students go to school
by walking or cycling if the distance from home to schools is <1 km
(Rith et al., 2019d).
Fig. 5. Accessibility to primary schools.
8
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 6 (2020) 100163
4. Policy implications
As can be seen from the simulation results of the joint model, the im-
provement of multi-criteria accessibility was much more efficient than in-
creases in gas price and vehicle cost to reduce household vehicle numbers
and energy consumption. The empirical findings emphasized that the gov-
ernment should prioritize one of their policies (e.g., “Build! Build! Build!”
program) to build more key facilities and amenities (i.e., educational insti-
tutions, medical centers and hospitals, public markets and supermarkets,
and social and recreation centers) in residential areas having the lowest ac-
cessibility. In other words, the government can encourage the private sector
to get involved with the investment of building more private schools, hos-
pitals, supermarkets, and social and recreation centers in areas that lack
these facilities. Construction of more crucial facilities contributes to the re-
duction of travel distance, which is likely to translate to lessen private vehi-
cle usage (VKT), energy consumption, and CO2 and pollutant emissions.
Improvement of TAZs with low accessibility does not only enhance the eq-
uitable development of society but also minimize the household vehicle de-
pendency, thereby expectedly improving the traffic flow, reducing the
energy demand, and decreasing the atmospheric pollutant emissions. Cor-
respondingly, expanding rail lines can enhance mixed-land use that can
achieve sustainable urbanization and mobility and equity in social develop-
ment. In line with this, the government should support the development of
Fig. 6. Accessibility to secondary schools.
M. Rith et al. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 6 (2020) 100163

CBDs in the peripheral areas of Metro Manila by providing high-quality

public transport services to and from these areas. As evidenced by this
study, the presence of CBDs greatly improves accessibility because of
their mixed land use nature. Unfortunately, CBDs have been constructed
more towards the central areas of Metro Manila, alienating lower-income
households. On a positive note, there are on-going efforts to develop
CBDs on the periphery of Metro Manila, specifically in Cavite and Laguna
(KMC, 2014).
The accessibility to each key facility type was calculated using Eq. (1).
The distribution of accessibility to each main facility type is illustrated in
Fig. 5 through Fig. 10. These geospatial illustrations are informative for
transport policymakers and urban planners to design policy for the im-
provement of equitable accessibility. Evident from Fig. 5, the lowest acces-
sibility to primary schools are observed for TAZs mostly located in southern
and northeastern Metro Manila. As apparent from Fig. 6, the TAZs having
the lowest accessibility to secondary schools (i.e., lower and upper second-
ary schools) are located in the southern, northern and northeastern part of
Metro Manila. As can be seen from Fig. 7, the highest accessibility to col-
leges is seen in the city of Manila, the oldest city of Metro Manila. This im-
plies that most college students (i.e., 18–22 aged adults) have commuting
trips to colleges and universities located in the city of Manila and its sur-
roundings. Building more higher education institutions in the lowest

Fig. 8. Accessibility to hospitals.

accessibility TAZs (e.g., TAZs located in the periphery of Metro Manila

and TAZs located far from the city center of Manila more than roughly
10 km) is highly expected to reduce trips made by the group of 18–22
aged adults going to the city of Manila and its surroundings. As illustrated
in Fig. 8, the lowest accessibility to hospitals and medical centers is found
in the northwestern and southern portion of Metro Manila and many
TAZs located in the south of the city of Manila. The lowest accessibility to
public markets and supermarkets is observed for TAZs located in the south-
ern and northern part of Metro Manila, see Fig. 9. Regarding Fig. 10, high
accessibility to social and recreation centers are found for TAZs located in
CBDs and its surroundings.

5. Conclusions and recommendations

This study evaluates the multi-criteria accessibility measure in Metro

Fig. 7. Accessibility to colleges.
Manila and apply to understand its impact on household vehicle ownership
and energy consumption decision by taking account of various factors, i.e.,
socioeconomic characteristics, urban form attributes, gas price, and vehicle
purchase cost. The findings emphasize that the highest multi-criteria acces-
sibility TAZs are located in the area with the presence of high rail line den-
sity, specifically in the city of Manila because there exist many educational
institutions, medical centers and hospitals, and markets and shopping malls

9
M. Rith et al.
Fig. 9. Accessibility to public markets and supermarkets.
located around the train stations and along the rail lines. Consequently,
building more rail lines is associated with a marked improvement of
mixed-land use that can achieve sustainable urbanism and mobility and so-
cial equity. The multi-criteria accessibility was found to have a highly neg-
ative impact on household vehicle ownership and energy consumption. A
1% improvement of accessibility reduced energy consumption by 38.470
MJ/month-vehicle, CO2 emission by 2.851 kg/month-vehicle, and vehicle
kilometers traveled by 12.043 km/month-vehicle. In other words, an in-
crease in 1% accessibility reduced energy consumption by 1.359%. Based
on the empirical finding, the government should prioritize one of their pol-
icies (e.g., “Build! Build! Build!” program) to build more educational insti-
tutions, medical centers and hospitals, public markets and supermarkets,
and social and recreation centers in residential areas having low accessibil-
ity. The accessibility measure of each facility type is also geospatially illus-
trated to support policymakers and urban planners. Improvement of low
accessibility TAZs does not only enhance the equitable development of so-
ciety but also discourage household vehicle ownership and usage. This is
the perspective of equity in social development and sustainable urbanism
and mobility to attain sustained economic growth.
It is the preliminary study of accessibility measures in Metro Manila,
and this study used the basic gravity accessibility method based on the
travel distance (km). The potential extension of these findings and the ap-
proach to other developing countries located in Southeast Asia (e.g., Malay-
sia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam) or the region should be considered
10
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 6 (2020) 100163
Fig. 10. Accessibility to social and recreation centers.
for future studies. Also, it suggests future research use travel time and travel
costs of different travel commuting modes (e.g., car, taxi, Public Utility
Jeepney, train, and tricycle). Furthermore, different accessibility methods
(e.g., the distance to the nearest point of interest, cumulative opportunity
method, gravity-based method, and expected maximum random utility-
based approach) should be applied and compared. Finally, future studies
should consider public green space as one of the key destinations and
apply the stated preference approach to capture its impact on household ve-
hicle ownership and usage.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Monorom Rith: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, In-
vestigation, Methodology, Resources, Software, Validation, Writing - origi-
nal draft. Krister Ian Daniel Z. Roquel: Data curation, Methodology,
Validation, Visualization, Writing - original draft. Neil Stephen A. Lopez:
Data curation, Validation, Visualization, Writing - review & editing. Alexis
M. Fillone: Funding acquisition, Resources, Validation, Visualization, Writ-
ing - review & editing. Jose Bienvenido Manuel M. Biona: Conceptualiza-
tion, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Resources, Project
administration, Validation, Visualization, Writing - review & editing.
M. Rith et al.
Acknowledgments
The outcomes of this research paper are mainly funded by (1) the Japan
International Cooperation Agency (JICA) under the AUN/SEED-Net project
for the Ph.D. Sandwich program at De La Salle University, Philippines and
Osaka University, Japan; (2) the Commission on Higher Education Devel-
opment for the Project of Development and Application of Transport Desir-
ability Index for the Assessment and Planning of Transport Systems in the
Philippines; and (3) the Big Data Analytics and Applications (MTNN:BDAA)
project of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST), Philippines.
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