Lab: Leaf Thermometer Activity

By Braxton Burnett & Grace Ann Wooten

Introduction
The goal of this Leaf Thermometer Activity Lab is to see if a set of data from small leaf
collections from all across the state of North Carolina can verify that leaf margins analysis can be used to
reliably predict average local temperatures. The data set we will be analyzing for this lab contains both
NCSSM Online and Residential student data, with temperatures from the coastal, piedmont, and
mountainous regions. We will be using the Scott Wing Method, the analysis of leaf margins, the
calculation of leaf AAT, and regression analysis to determine the effectiveness of leaves as proxies for
past, present, and future climatic change.

Purpose
The purpose of the Leaf Thermometer Lab is to test the effectiveness of local leaf observation as
a proxy for climate change in the state of North Carolina. Our null hypothesis is that there will be no
significant statistical difference between the effectiveness of leaf margin analysis data and NOAA data in
determining the presence of climate change in North Carolina. Our alternative hypothesis is that
leaf margin analysis data will, on its own, not be an effective proxy in determining leaf AAT and climate
change in North Carolina.

Materials and Methods

Materials:
- 10 Leaves collected from 10 different trees from the home area of each group member.
Methods:
1) Each group member randomly collected 10 leaves from 10 different trees in their home area.
2) Each group member bagged and labeled their leaves with the time and latitude and longitude of
where they were collected.
3) Using the Scott Wing’s method, each group member analyzed the leaf margins for their leaf
samples and from this determined the percent smooth and leaf-predicted temperature.
4) Group members then compared the AAT calculated from leaf margins to an instrument-based
AAT for the location in which the leaves were collected. One large class data set, with both
NCSSM Online and NCSSM Residential student data, was used to analyze the predictability of
temperature from tree leaves found in North Carolina.
5) Group members then conducted a regression analysis to determine if the class leaf margin AAT
was a good fit for NOAA data and testing.

Observation
Below is a regression analysis of the data collected from both NCSSM Online and Residential
students. It can be seen that the Leaf AAT temperatures increase simultaneously along with the NOAA
AAT temperatures. The R^2 value of the data is low; this tells us that there is not a strong correlation
between predicted leaf temperatures and NOAA temperatures. It can also be observed that there is not a
wide range of temperatures in the data set and on the line graph. Though data was collected all across the
state of North Carolina, we are all still in the same temperate forest environmental biome, meaning that all
of the trees are similar across the border, despite a slight difference in average annual temperatures
resulting in this low range of temperature.

Conclusion
The results of the experiment correlated with our alternative hypothesis that leaf analysis data
wouldn’t be effective on its own at determining the AAT in North Carolina. More research can be done to
determine a more accurate proxy or to find what combination of proxies works best to determine the leaf
AAT in North Carolina. Due to the fact that lack of variety in our dataset hindered our ability to
determine an accurate leaf AAT for North Carolina, an experiment involving leaves from a more diverse
group of trees should be conducted allowing us to expand upon our findings.