Predictive Maintenance Explained (reliableplant.

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Predictive Maintenance Explained

Predictive maintenance (PdM) is maintenance that monitors the performance and
condition of equipment during normal operation to reduce the likelihood of failures. Also
known as condition-based maintenance, predictive maintenance has been utilized in the
industrial world since the 1990s.
Yet, in reality, predictive maintenance is much older, although its history is not formally
documented. According to Control Engineering, “The start of predictive maintenance
(PdM) may have been when a mechanic first put his ear to the handle of a screwdriver,
touched the other end to a machine, and pronounced that it sounded like a bearing was
going bad.”
The goal of predictive maintenance is the ability to first predict when equipment failure
could occur (based on certain factors), followed by preventing the failure through
regularly scheduled and corrective maintenance.
Predictive maintenance cannot exist without condition monitoring, which is defined as
the continuous monitoring of machines during process conditions to ensure the optimal
use of machines. There are three facets of condition monitoring: online, periodic and
remote. Online condition monitoring is defined as the continuous monitoring of
machines or production processes, with data collected on critical speeds and changing
spindle positions (“Condition Monitoring of Rotating Machines,” Istec International).
Periodic condition monitoring, which is achieved through vibration analysis, “gives
insight into changing vibration behavior of installations” with a trend analysis (“Condition
Monitoring of Rotating Machines,” Istec International). Lastly, remote condition
monitoring, as its name suggests, allows equipment to be monitored from a remote
location, with data transmitted for analysis.
Before establishing a predictive maintenance program, an organization must take
several steps, which include:
 Analyzing the need and equipment history
 Reviewing any and all available records on downtime, equipment defects, losses
(yield and energy), potential regulation fines and workplace safety
 Establishing definitions and concepts as well as building a case for PdM
 Educating major stakeholders and getting buy-in
 Completing an equipment inventory and appraising the current equipment
conditions
 Selecting equipment for the program’s initial implementation
 Developing system details based on individual systems and/or components
 Evaluating any existing preventive or predictive maintenance
  Deciding which systems to include and what to inspect for
 Defining the program’s criticality and establishing PdM frequency and schedule
type
 Evaluating the anticipated resources and assigning personnel roles and
responsibilities
 Organizing the program and integrating it into the scheduling system
 Educating and obtaining buy-in from operations and maintenance
 Upgrading equipment and conducting training
 Creating a computerized maintenance management systems (CMMS)
Around 65 percent of maintenance personnel surveyed in Reliable Plant's
2019 Predictive Maintenance Survey said they use predictive maintenance. When
implemented and executed, predictive maintenance is a cornerstone of a successful
maintenance program.

The Difference Between Predictive Maintenance

and Preventive Maintenance
While many maintenance programs use a bit of both, there are several differences
between predictive maintenance and preventive maintenance. Preventive
maintenance has involved inspecting and performing maintenance on machinery,
regardless of whether the equipment was in need of maintenance. This maintenance
schedule is based on either a usage or time trigger. For example, a heating unit is
serviced every year before winter, or a car requires scheduled maintenance every 5,000
miles.
Also, preventive maintenance does not demand the condition monitoring component
that predictive maintenance does. By not requiring condition monitoring, a preventive
maintenance program does not involve as much capital investment in technology and
training. Lastly, many preventive maintenance programs need manual data-gathering
and analyzing.
While preventive maintenance is determined by using the average life cycle of an asset,
predictive maintenance is identified based on preset and predetermined conditions of
specific pieces of equipment, utilizing different technologies. Predictive maintenance
also requires more investments in people, training and equipment than preventive
maintenance, but the time savings and cost savings will be greater in the long run.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Predictive

Maintenance
As mentioned, the advantages of predictive maintenance are tremendous from a cost-
savings perspective and include minimizing planned downtime, maximizing equipment
lifespan, optimizing employee productivity and increasing revenue (Immerman, “The
Impact of Predictive Maintenance on Manufacturing”). Another advantage of predictive
maintenance is its ability to transform both a maintenance team and an organization, as
implementing PdM allows asset managers to improve outcomes and better balance
priorities such as profitability and reliability.
One of the main disadvantages of predictive maintenance is the amount of time it takes
to assess and implement a PdM schedule. With predictive maintenance being a complex
initiative, plant personnel must be trained on how to not only use the equipment but also
how to interpret the analytics (or data).
While many organizations choose to train existing employees on predictive
maintenance, there are condition-monitoring contractors who specialize in performing
the required labor and analyzing the results for a facility. In addition to the training costs,
predictive maintenance involves an investment in maintenance tools and systems. This
cost has decreased over time with the introduction of cloud-based technology.

Predictive Maintenance vs. Inspection for Defects

For some time, a considerable amount of confusion has existed over the appropriate
way to inspect for the presence of a given failure mode. Should I perform some type of
sensory inspection? Should I perform some type of quantitative inspection? Should I
apply one or more condition-monitoring technologies? Should I apply some combination
of these techniques to maximize the conditional probability of finding the defect?
How do I identify the presence of a key defect in such a way as to maximize the amount
of time my planning department has to develop the job procedures, create work orders,
order the parts, and schedule and complete the work before the conditional probability
of failure becomes too high? An explanation of the types of inspections and how they
complement one another goes a long way toward clarifying which ones are most
appropriate.

Types of Defect Inspection Techniques

Sensory inspections have long been considered the backbone of any good inspection
program and maintenance work. It was believed that sending someone around often
enough to inspect for problems with machinery would result in identifying defects in
plenty of time to mitigate unplanned downtime. The inspector would use sight, sound
and touch to determine if anything had changed since the last inspection. Any change
would be recorded, reported and investigated by a craftsperson on the next scheduled
outage.
While there is a tremendous amount of benefit to sending someone around to perform
inspections, there are so many holes in this strategy that it should never be considered
the backbone of the inspection program. Sensory inspections typically only identify the
most obvious and drastic of problems. It is all but impossible for a sensory inspection to
identify early, internal defects in machines.

Enhanced Sensory Inspections

Enhanced sensory inspections fill that gray zone. They are both a sensory inspection and
a quantitative measurement with condition-monitoring characteristics. These
inspections use instruments like spot radiometers, strobe lights, handheld vibration pens
and simple ultrasonic meters to detect defects further up the P-F curve. While these
tools multiply the power of the human senses, they have their limit. These simple tools
do allow for different failure modes to be detected, but they shouldn't replace a
comprehensive condition-monitoring program.

Quantitative Inspections
Quantitative inspections can provide useful information when it comes to generating
data for trending and determining the characteristic life of a failure mode. Quantitative
inspections need someone to measure something. Very common quantitative
inspections include measuring the temperature of a seal on a pump or measuring the
backplate clearance on a pump impeller. These measurements provide data to the
planner and engineer and help determine the need for further maintenance action.
When designed properly, a quantitative inspection procedure details limits and typically
expected measurements. Any inspection that requires someone to measure something
should have the minimum, maximum and typical values, with conditional tasks defined
for when the limits are exceeded. But a quantitative inspection performed at the proper
inspection frequency rarely will have a measurement that exceeds the limits.

Predictive Maintenance as a Defect Inspection Technique

Condition monitoring, also known as predictive maintenance (PdM), is the application of
condition-based monitoring technologies, statistical process control or equipment
performance for early detection and elimination of equipment defects that could lead to
unplanned downtime or unnecessary expenditures.
And generally speaking, you must conduct this while the equipment is in normal
operation, with little to no process interruption. The purpose of these tools (vibration
analysis, infrared thermography, motor circuit analysis, etc.) is to find defects not found
through previously available inspections methods, while the machine is in normal
operation.
Taking advantage of the available technology lets you assess the condition of parts and
the presence of defects heretofore impossible to detect. An example of the advantage
these tools have in the area of quantitative inspections or sensory inspections is the use
of vibration analysis to determine the presence of a defect on a rolling element bearing.
Previously, mechanics and millwrights relied on "lift checks" to determine the amount of
clearance in a bearing. Unfortunately, this technique is only valid for bearing defects that
resulted in the removal of material from the raceways of the bearing; this bearing would
be pretty bad off to have thousandths of inches of play in it.
Sub-surface fatigue is easily seen with vibration analysis and at this point in the failure
propagation has resulted in no removal of material from the raceways. This is the most
common example of the advantages of predictive maintenance technologies.
There are different types of defect inspection techniques that can be brought to bear on
a machine, and each has its advantages and disadvantages. Yet, these techniques aren't
exact replacements for each other. Each determines the presence of the defect at
different places along the P-F curve and, as a result, each gives the planning function
different amounts of time to respond to the defect.
A failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) can help you determine which
inspection techniques should be applied, how often and with what degree of
redundancy. Remember, the trick is to balance risk with rigor. How much risk you are
willing to take with a given failure mode coupled with how much you are willing to pay
for the inspection determines the appropriate strategy.

Predictive Maintenance Technologies

As the name suggests, the goal of predictive maintenance is to predict when
maintenance is needed. While there is no Magic 8-Ball, there are several condition-
monitoring devices and techniques that can be employed for effectively predicting
failure, as well as providing advanced warning for maintenance on the horizon.

Infrared Thermography
Known as a nondestructive or nonintrusive testing technology, infrared (IR)
thermography in predictive maintenance is widely used. With IR cameras, personnel are
able to detect high temperatures (aka, hotspots) in equipment. Worn components,
including malfunctioning electrical circuits, typically emit heat that will display as a
hotspot on a thermal image (“Predictive Maintenance,” Lean Manufacturing Tools).
By quickly identifying hotspots, infrared inspections can pinpoint problems and help
avoid costly repairs and downtime. Infrared technology is considered “one of the most
versatile predictive maintenance technologies available … used to study everything from
individual components of machinery to plant systems, roofs and even entire buildings,”
(Control Engineering). More uses for infrared technology include detecting thermal
anomalies and problems with process systems relying on heat retention and/or transfer.

Acoustic Monitoring
With acoustic technologies, personnel can detect gas, liquid or vacuum leaks in
equipment on a sonic or ultrasonic level. Considered less expensive than ultrasonic
technology, sonic technology is useful on mechanical equipment but limited in its use.
Ultrasonic technology has more applications and is more reliable in detecting
mechanical issues.
It allows a technician to “hear friction and stress in rotating machinery, which can predict
deterioration earlier than conventional techniques” (“Predictive Maintenance,” Wikipedia)
by using instrumentation to convert sounds in the 20- to 100-kilohertz range into
“auditory or visual signals that can be heard/seen by a technician. These high
frequencies are the exact frequencies generated by worn and underlubricated bearings,
faulty electrical equipment, leaky valves, etc.” (Wright, “How to Leverage Multiple
Predictive Maintenance Technologies”).
While both sonic and ultrasonic testing can be expensive, there is another form of
acoustic monitoring that is quite affordable: a technician’s ears. “Something as simple
as detecting an oil leak or a gearbox that sounds weird could and often does lead to the
prevention of a catastrophic failure, avoiding tens of thousands of dollars in losses,”
(Wright, “How to Leverage Multiple Predictive Maintenance Technologies”).

Vibration Analysis
Employed primarily for high-speed rotating equipment, vibration analysis allows a
technician to monitor a machine’s vibrations by using a handheld analyzer or real-time
sensors built into the equipment. A machine operating in peak condition exhibits a
particular vibration pattern. When components like bearings and shafts begin to wear
and fail, the machine will begin to generate a different vibration pattern. By proactively
monitoring the equipment, a trained technician can compare the readings against known
failure modes to determine where problems are occurring.
Among the issues that can be detected with vibration analysis include misalignment,
bent shafts, unbalanced components, loose mechanical components and motor
problems.
Ensuring technicians are trained will be vital, as it can be difficult to predict machine
failure utilizing vibration analysis. Many organizations offer in-depth training to prepare
individuals for certification as vibration analysts. The only downside to using vibration
analysis is the cost associated in implementing it with a PdM program.  

Oil Analysis
Oil analysis is an effective tool in predictive maintenance. It enables a technician to
check the oil’s condition and determine if other particles and contaminants are present.
Some oil analysis tests can reveal the viscosity, presence of water or wear metals,
particle counts, and the acid number or base number.
One of the benefits of using oil analysis is that the initial test(s) will set a baseline for a
new machine. When done properly, oil analysis can yield a myriad of results to help
make predictive maintenance successful.

Other Technologies
Along with these techniques, facilities may use other technologies such as motor
condition analysis, which details the operating and running condition of motors; and
eddy current analysis, which identifies changes in tube wall thickness within centrifugal
chillers and boiler systems. Borescope inspections, CMMS, data integration and
condition monitoring can also help facilitate predictive maintenance. While there are
several different technologies to aid in your PdM efforts, it is vital to choose the right
one to ensure success.

Business Case for Predictive Maintenance

To realize return on capital investments and keep machines running at peak efficiency,
facilities must place a greater emphasis on predictive maintenance. According to
the Wall Street Journal, “Unplanned downtime costs industrial manufacturers an
estimated $50 billion annually. Equipment failure is the cause of 42 percent of this
unplanned downtime. Unplanned outages result in excessive maintenance, repair and
equipment replacement.”
As operations and management are pushed toward reducing costs and increasing
productivity, the need for predictive maintenance becomes clear, since it is difficult to
make any cost-effective, long-term decisions for a facility.
The value of predictive maintenance comes from a cost-saving and/or time-saving
approach, as maintenance is only performed when needed. In fact, several studies by the
U.S. Department of Energy’s Federal Energy Management Program found that a properly
functioning predictive maintenance program provides savings ranging from 30-40
percent over reactive maintenance, and 8-12 percent over preventative maintenance.
For a PdM strategy to be successful, several criteria must be considered and met. First,
the commitment should come from the top down. The entire organization must be
committed to making predictive maintenance a mandated part of the normal schedules.
All process operators must also be educated and involved in performing the required
maintenance checks. In addition, the entire organization needs to understand the actual
cost and repercussions of poor maintenance. Finally, PdM procedures must be
implemented immediately in order for the organization to start reaping the benefits.
While many recognize the importance of utilizing predictive maintenance for high-dollar
machines, PdM is also viable for monitoring smaller, everyday assets such as coffee
machines, printers, postage meters and more. In reality, an entire facility can benefit
from implementing predictive maintenance.

Predictive Maintenance Applications

The biggest application for predictive maintenance is in the manufacturing sector. As
manufacturing plants continue to face demand to increase productivity,
several maintenance strategies have been created and implemented. However, a
majority of these have been reactive. Many facilities possess a mindset of “if it’s not
broke, don’t fix it.” Unfortunately, this mindset contributes to unplanned maintenance
and downtime.
As discussed previously, facilities began implementing predictive maintenance in the
early 1990s. Back then, “the lack of availability of sensors generating data as well as a
lack of computational resources for gathering and analyzing the data made it difficult to
implement PdM” (“Predictive Maintenance in Manufacturing Overview,” Microsoft
Azure).
With the introduction of the internet of things (IoT), machine learning, cloud computing
and big data analytics, the manufacturing industry has moved forward in implementing
predictive maintenance, resulting in increased uptime and quality control, optimization
of maintenance routes, improved worker safety and greater productivity. As
manufacturers work with tight margins and timeframes, the thought of unscheduled
downtime has become undesirable. Predictive maintenance can offer a solution.
Another application for PdM is in the railway sector, particularly as it relates to the rail
industry’s digital transformation. With trains having a high initial investment, there is a
keen focus on keeping them in service as long as possible. Predictive maintenance
enables rail companies to get the most value out of their fleet of trains through a variety
of technologies and software that reduce operating costs and extend the fleet’s lifetime.
Within the railway sector, predictive maintenance is utilized to detect problems with
linear, fixed and mobile assets; improve safety and track void detection through vehicle
cab-based monitoring systems; and identify the type of track asset under which the void
is located, as well as provide an indication of the void’s severity.
According to an article in MaintWorld, “In the future, reliable railway maintenance is
expected to rely upon smart transportation systems and interconnected solutions such
as predictive maintenance and integrated security tools in order to improve critical
issues like safety, delays and overall system capacity” (Peycheva, “Railway Goes Smart
with Predictive Maintenance and Industry 4.0 CMMS”).
While traditionally slow to modernize its maintenance systems, the oil and gas industry
is becoming a major proponent of predictive maintenance. Each day, oil and gas
companies collect massive amounts of data through sensors – particularly wireless
sensors – in oil fields around the world. As oil and gas operations become more
complex, visibility into the equipment’s condition becomes more difficult, especially in
remote, offshore and deep-water locations.
In a 2015 white paper, MapR Technologies Inc. stated, “Oil and gas companies have a
major opportunity to increase efficiency and reduce operational costs through better
asset tracking and predictive maintenance.”
Predictive maintenance could be seen as a competitive advantage for oil and gas
companies as well as the related service businesses, particularly during times of a
recession when organizations are forced to find ways to work more efficiently and
effectively. Of course, predictive maintenance does not just pertain to the
manufacturing, rail, and oil and gas industries. In other applications, PdM is used to:
 Help prevent utility outages with the help of drones and sensors that map utility
networks
 Detect a temperature decline in a steam pipeline, indicating a potential pressure
leak
 Capture increased temperatures in electrical panels to prevent component
failures
 Measure supply-side and demand-side power at a common coupling point for
monitoring power consumption
 Locate overloads in electrical panels
  Identify motor amperage spikes or overheating from bad bearings or insultation
breakdowns
 Find three-phase power imbalances from harmonic distortion, overloads,
degradation or failure of one or more phases

IIoT and PdM Integration

One of the most important factors – if not the  most important factor – in a successful
predictive maintenance program is the use and integration of the industrial internet of
things (IIoT). According to a report by Deloitte, “the Internet of Things (IoT) is perhaps
the biggest piece of the PdM puzzle … IoT translates physical actions from machines
into digital signals using sensors such as temperature, vibration or conductivity … Once
the physical actions have been translated into digital signals via sensors, they are
processed, aggregated and analyzed. With the affordability of bandwidth and storage,
massive amounts of data can be transmitted to give not only a full picture of assets in a
single plant, but of an entire production network” (Coleman et al., “Predictive
Maintenance and the Smart Factory”).  
To be successful, predictive maintenance relies on sensors for collecting and analyzing
data from various sources, such as a CMMS and critical equipment sensors. Using this
data, the IIoT is able to create “advanced prediction models and analytical tools to
predict failures and address them proactively. Additionally, over time, new machine-
learning technology can increase the accuracy of the predictive algorithms, leading to
even better performance” (Coleman et al., “Predictive Maintenance and the Smart
Factory”).
When paired with predictive maintenance, the IIoT has the ability to catch equipment
failures in advance. With the arrival of Industry 4.0 in the manufacturing realm, facilities
are eager to utilize the IIoT to gain better insights into operations.

Predictive Maintenance and Return on

Investment
Implementing predictive maintenance requires a significant investment in money,
personnel and education. While these initial investments might seem daunting to an
organization, predictive maintenance’s return on investment (ROI) far outweighs any
upfront costs.
According to a recent report by Deloitte, several facilities have seen a 5-10 percent cost
savings in operations and maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) material spend; a
5-10 percent reduction in overall maintenance costs; and reduced inventory-carrying
costs. Further data from the U.S. Department of Energy also shows that implementing a
functional PdM program has the potential to yield a tenfold increase in ROI, a 25-30
percent reduction in maintenance costs, a 70-75 percent decrease in breakdowns and a
35-45 percent reduction in downtime.
“As far as maintenance costs are concerned, preventive maintenance costs $13 hourly
pay per annum while predictive maintenance costs $9 hourly pay per annum, making
predictive maintenance a cheaper option” (Ulbert, “The Difference Between Predictive
Maintenance and Preventive Maintenance”).

References
Coleman, Chris, Satish Damodaran and Ed Deuel. “Predictive Maintenance and the Smart
Factory.” Deloitte. 2017.
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/process-and-
operations/us-cons-predictive-maintenance.pdf

“Condition Monitoring of Rotating Machines.” Istec International. Accessed November 1,

2018. https://www.istec.nl/en/condition-monitoring-rotating-machines/.
Control Engineering. “Predictive Maintenance Technologies.” Accessed November 4,
2018. https://www.controleng.com/single-article/predictive-maintenance-
technologies/72faca6f85ddaef6b4479583b2741e6c.html.
Immerman, Graham. “The Impact of Predictive Maintenance on Manufacturing.”
MachineMetrics. Accessed November 1, 2018.
https://www.machinemetrics.com/blog/the-impact-of-predictive-maintenance-on-
manufacturing.
Lean Manufacturing Tools. “Predictive Maintenance.” Accessed November 2, 2018.
http://leanmanufacturingtools.org/427/predictive-maintenance/.
Peycheva, Ralitsa. “Railway Goes Smart with Predictive Maintenance and Industry 4.0
CMMS.” MaintWorld. October 11, 2017. Accessed November 4, 2018.
https://www.maintworld.com/Applications/Railway-Goes-Smart-with--Predictive-
Maintenance-and-Industry-4.0-CMMS.
“Predictive Maintenance in Manufacturing Overview.” Microsoft Azure. May 1, 2018.
Accessed November 4, 2018. https://docs.microsoft.com/en-
us/azure/industry/manufacturing/predictive-maintenance-overview.
“Predictive Maintenance Using Hadoop for the Oil and Gas Industry,” MapR
Technologies Inc., May 2015. https://mapr.com/resources/predictive-maintenance-
using-hadoop-oil-and-gas-industry/.
Ulbert, Sebastian, “The Difference Between Predictive Maintenance and Preventive
Maintenance,” Coresystems, September 15, 2015. Accessed November 2, 2018.
https://www.coresystems.net/blog/the-difference-between-predictive-maintenance-and-
preventive-maintenance.
Wall Street Journal. Accessed November 2, 2018.
https://partners.wsj.com/emerson/unlocking-performance/how-manufacturers-can-
achieve-top-quartile-performance/.
Wikipedia. “Predictive Maintenance.” Accessed October 11, 2018.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_maintenance.
Wright, Jeremy. “How to Leverage Multiple Predictive Maintenance Technologies.”
Machinery Lubrication. Accessed November 1, 2018.
https://www.machinerylubrication.com/Read/29819/predictive-maintenance-
technologies