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Last updated: Oct 2018

mmahindro@yahoo.com

Pakistan and Changing Regional Apparatus

Economist has released a very promising report about Pakistan’s economy,

indicating a growth rate of 4.7 percent during the current financial year. This along with bringing
down the terrorist activities as a result of Zarb-e-azb launched by the armed forces against the
terrorists and rangers onslaught on the criminals in Karachi added new dimension to the
confidence of Pakistan. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) agreement and America’s
clearance of Foreign Military Sale of Viper Attack Helicopters and Hellfire II Missiles to
Pakistan have been instrumental in generating this confidence. Pakistan has also achieved a
balance approach at the international level by cultivating relations with Russia as well as Russia
has culminated a Defense Agreement and procurement of MI-35M helicopters with Pakistan.

Pakistan’s policy towards Taliban has received admiration at the international level. This
compelled Afghanistan to shift towards Pakistan. Likewise P5+1 and Iran nuclear deal is also
going to open the door of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project. China has already offered to
construct this pipeline and has committed to sell submarines to Pakistan as well.

Arrogant India has always been a source of regional instability particularly for Pakistan.
The way the Afghan militants are carrying out cross-border attacks into Pakistan is sufficient to
prove that secret agencies like Indian RAW and Israeli Mossad which have well-established
collective network in Afghanistan are fully on the back of these incursions to destabilize
Pakistan.

Afghanistan is also acting as a hub from where these secret agencies are sending logistic
support to Baloch separatist elements. Besides several personnel of security agencies in
Baluchistan, these foreign-backed elements kidnapped and killed many innocent people
particularly Chinese nationals so as to keep them away from Pakistan to cultivate any
constructive relationship. However at the time of withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan
in 2014 their equipment was moved via Pakistani route. Nonetheless, in the post-2014 scenario,
despite the presence of American troops on small scale, India which is assisting the Northern
Alliance against the Afghan militants does not seem in a position to counter the Taliban guerrilla
warfare as a substitute of NATO. Afghanistan thus appears to remain in an era of uncertainty
and civil war. So, to be realistic, USA and other western countries should realize that unlike
India, Pakistan shares common geographical, historical, religious and cultural bonds with
Afghanistan. Therefore US must invoke Pakistani role instead of India to bring peace and
stability in Afghanistan and the region at large.
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Pakistan has also concluded security agreement with Iran for border management. Besides,
Pakistan has also participated in the conferences which also include Turkey—with the aim for
regional stability and peace. Pakistan’s willingness to resolve issue of infiltration across the Pak-
Afghan border, terrorism, and to invest in development of social sector like health and education
in Afghanistan shows its peaceful diplomacy. It was in this context that on May 18, 2015
Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff; Gen. Raheel Sharif visited Afghanistan, and participated in a
tripartite meeting with the Afghan Chief of General Staff, and ISAF Commander. They reviewed
the prevailing security situation in Afghanistan. The transfer of security responsibility to Afghan
National Security Forces in the wake of US, ISAF drawdown—enhanced bilateralism between
Islamabad and Kabul with particular emphasis on coordination arrangements along Pak-Afghan
Border. Gen Sharif said that Pakistan considers security and terrorism as the common enemy of
both the countries.

Pakistan and the region around is extremely exposed to extremism. Terrorist’s attacks are
going on all over Pakistan with much larger intensity in KPK, Baluchistan and Karachi mostly
against the Shia community and Government organizations and personnel. This has inter alia
resulted into strained relations with Iran. Pakistan’s reluctance to send troops to fight against the
Houthi Shia rebels in Yemen in line with Saudi Arabia wish was in the background of emerging
concerns in its vast Shia community and Iran aftermath the dispatch.

The Indian Ocean has now become the world’s most important route for the movement
of cargo ships. More than 80 percent of the world’s seaborne trade in oil passes through the
Indian Ocean’s choke points viz; the straits of Hormuz, Malacca, and Bab el Mandeb originating
from Persian Gulf. In addition to energy, vast quantities of manufactured goods from Eastern
China, South Korea, Japan, India, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand and other ASEAN
countries are finding their way to Middle East, Africa, and Europe through Indian Ocean. Hence
smooth flow of goods on the international sea lanes is very much in the collective interest of the
regional and extra regional nations.
Socio- political unrest in parts of India and Pakistan including Kashmir issue, volatile
situation in parts of Pakistan in the face of ongoing fight against the terrorists in FATA and
criminality in Karachi have to be pragmatically addressed for a lasting peace in the region.
As regards Pakistan more than 95 percent of its trade is sea borne and major part of its
Petroleum imports comes from the Gulf. Continuous flow of energy resources through the Strait
of Hormuz is essential for the sustenance of its economy and wellbeing. It is therefore, in
Pakistan’s interest to have unimpeded Sea lane environment in the Arabian Sea. Cognizant of its
international obligations and interests the Pakistan Navy joined the US led multi-national
Coalition Task Force-150, under the ambit of Coalition Maritime Campaign Plan. The mission of
this task force is to work with regional navies to counter extremism, terrorism and illegal
activities at sea.
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Pakistan Navy has made its presence felt in the recent times in large parts of the western
Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea including Horn of Africa, Red Sea, and Gulf of Aden. The
enduring participation in multinational coalition operations aside, the institution of International
Maritime Conferences fastened to Amman series of exercises every two years has enhanced the
Pakistani image as well as that of the Pakistan Navy in the region and beyond.
Now; for the first time Pakistan’s sensitivities about Afghanistan have been better
understood by the USA. It appears that USA has reconciled with the possibility that it could be
replaced in Afghanistan by China with the help of Pakistan. China already has already a
considerable economic presence in Afghanistan. It will now concentrate on energy-rich Iran that
shall emerge much stronger after its nuclear deal. China has also just agreed to build nuclear
power plants for Iran.

Russia, with its growing understanding with China is also emerging as an important
regional player. In the new scenario Russia appears to sell advanced weaponry to Iran. President
Ashraf Ghani has completed the first trip of the capitals which matter in the future political and
economic settlement of Afghanistan. During his visit to India he expressed the desire to “make
Afghanistan a graveyard of terror” and for this looked up for help from India, Pakistan and other
neighbors. On the other hand Indian analysts feel that New Delhi may be losing influence in
Afghanistan because of Afghanistan’s new government’s efforts to forge closer ties with
Pakistan and China; as its deep relations with India during the past one and a half decade failed
to bring any significant stability in the country particularly with reference to Taliban movement.
Ashraf Ghani visit to China, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan (twice) and the US before going to India hint
at Afghanistan’s changing priorities in the emerging strategic scenario.

India wants existing Afghan-Pakistan Trade and Transit agreement to expand to include
India to allow its goods to flow to Afghanistan through Pakistan and back to India. Afghanistan’s
direct surface link to India could turn Afghanistan into a hub that will connect central Asia to
South Asia and beyond. Afghanistan also appears to be poised to benefit enormously by joining
CPEC. President Ghani said: “Our vision today is to be guided by that potential where the energy
of Central Asia will flow to South Asia where pipelines, fiber optics, railways, and connectivity,
air, ground and virtual will connect us.” And this is what CPEC offers. Afghanistan at present
feels that he must engage Pakistan and obtain its cooperation. It has also started sending officer
cadets for training to Pakistani military academy to offset its earlier pattern to get its officers
trained exclusively in India.

It appears that Afghanistan is now convinced that India’s capacity to help is limited and
Pakistani and China could be more productive partners. On the other hand the CPEC project
indicates far-reaching Chinese plans to bring Afghanistan also into its economic integration.
However despite this setback, India is not likely to reconcile with its relatively lower profile in
Afghanistan. It may like to provoke ethnic minorities of Uzbeks and Tajiks, and Shia sect with
the support of Iran to create fissures between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah.
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In this changing scenario Pakistan has to be quite cautious about cultivating relations with
Afghanistan particularly with reference to tackle cross border terrorism and militancy. Though
any big turnaround does is not in sight yet Pakistan must remain engaged in eradicating
terrorism from its soil so as to prepare itself to play its due role in the region. India has tried its
best to divert the attention of the Pakistani forces from Zarb-e azb by opening fire on civilians
along the working boundary but Pakistan’s determination to deal with the terrorism with iron
hand at all costs deserves all appreciations. Countering terrorism was no doubt a daunting and
challenging task for Pakistan but the better coordination between the military and the civil
administration has made it a success. Unfortunately US and international community engaged in
Afghanistan always blamed Pakistan for all the troubles in Afghanistan but they have now
admitted Pakistan’s relevance and centrality in any future resolution of the issue. The unity
government, led by President Ashraf Ghani unlike his predecessor considers Pakistan a partner
rather than a spoiler when it comes to bilateral relations. However, there is also a need to factor
in the domestic constraints and stakeholders on both sides, as well as the concerns and intent of
regional and extra‐regional actors involved in Afghanistan, mainly US and India. Ashraf Ghani,
while addressing a joint press conference at the end of his two‐day visit to Pakistan, said “We
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must overcome the past…we will not permit the past to destroy the future.” In this scenario
Pakistan must try to forge further better relations with Afghanistan.

Pakistan as a ‘stabilizing factor’ in the region:

While acknowledging the role of Pakistan in regional peace the US has termed the country
a “stabilizing factor” in the region particularly with reference to Pakistan’s multi-faceted support
which it provided to the International community in war on terror, UN peacekeeping missions,
and shipment of US/NATO equipment through its soil.
Pakistan’s operation Zarb-e-Azb has been very successful and is going to set stage for
eventual elimination of militancy from the country and the adjoining areas. The point to mention
is that despite Pakistan’s meager financial resources its armed forces are carrying out the
operation with full zest. Pakistan’s this action is going a long way in creating peace and stability
in the region including Afghanistan necessitating requisite support from Afghanistan.
The Indian Ocean region is all set to play a crucial role in the 21st century and is likely to
remain a hotbed of traditional and non-traditional threats as well as other security challenges.
Pakistan enjoys a unique position in the region. In line with national policies, the Pakistan Navy
has an important role to play in ensuring regional maritime security and stability. The way ahead
to address various challenges to regional maritime security is the formulation of a Collaborative
Maritime Security Apparatus. However, a pre-requisite to make any pragmatic headway in this
regard will be to resolve contentious issues and disagreements between the regional states
through dialogue and political process. Such an approach could facilitate confidence building
and trust between the regional countries, leading to the furtherance of cooperation in combating
maritime crime and stability of the ocean for the collective benefit of the states concerned.
Further there is an increasing awareness about Pakistan’s ability to play a meaningful role in
stabilizing Afghanistan and the region at large. Dialogue process between Taliban and Afghan
Government in Pakistan could be fruitful in the times to come.
The world has become increasingly interconnected and interdependent with respect to
trade, investment, technology transfer and acquisition of political and strategic leverages. Hence
conflict, clash and unrest in one region greatly affect other parts of the world resulting into
disruption of international supply chains. Resolution of conflicts, therefore, have become more
important and need to take immediate steps have enormously increased to avert any escalation of
the conflict. Hence cooperation rather than confrontation appears to be the more realistic
approach in this scenario. Bilateral and multilateral agreements are therefore have to be
concluded in such a way that all parties gain justly and fairly to give the long lasting effect to the
agreements, otherwise it would be a futile exercise if any party subsequently fails to meet its
commitments.
Though there is a lot of talk regarding improving relations, yet an important factor that
cannot be ignored is the pressing need to enhance cooperation in areas of counter‐terrorism and
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other security issues as both countries have long accused each other of lack of cooperation vis‐à‐
vis terrorism, and cross‐border sanctuaries for terrorists.