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Indonesia Sector Update

4 October 2021 Consumer Non-cyclical | Poultry

Indonesia Poultry Overweight (From Neutral)


Stocks Covered 2
4Q21F: Higher Sales Volumes; Upgrade To O/W
Rating (Buy/Neutral/Sell): 1/1/0
Last 12m Earnings Revision Trend: Positive

 Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT from Neutral; Top Pick: Japfa Comfeed Top Pick Target Price
(JPFA). With COVID-19 cases on a decline, the reopening of the economy Japfa Comfeed (JPFA IJ) - BUY IDR2,750
should support chicken consumption – potentially reducing the level of
culling required by the Government. This should lift day-old chick (DOC),
broiler and feed sales volumes. Recent data suggests the DOC price cap
should provide investors opportunities to buy on dips. Also, lower soybean
prices should offset higher corn prices (now IDR5,500/kg). 4Q21F results
are expected to be strong, supported by volume recovery and stable prices.
Analysts
 Demand spiked up on September’s lower culling rate. Our ground
checks indicate that chicken prices rose by 2% MoM – relatively stable Michael Setjoadi
despite the Government lowering culling levels for the month (30.8%; Aug +6221 5093 9844
2021: 25.3%). This translated to a 6.6m increase in DOC final stock (FS) michael.setjoadi@rhbgroup.com
MoM, or a 3% MoM increase. If the trend continues, we should see a 20%
QoQ growth in DOC and broiler sales volumes, which should also point to
higher feed sales volumes. Marco Antonius
+6221 5093 9849
 Surging domestic corn prices could be offset by normalising soybean marco.antonius@rhbgroup.com
prices. Heavy rainfall – expected in Oct-Nov 2021 – may decrease the corn
harvest during the period, thereby keeping its prices buoyed. There has
been news about a potential price ceiling on corn prices, but this is only for
independent farmers (c.20% of corn feed usage). Corn accounts for c.30%
of sector feed production costs (soybean accounts for another 30%). On a
brighter note, the price of soybean has come off its peak by 13% since mid-
2021. About 40-50% of the poultry sector’s raw materials, including
soybean, are imported. Poultry players’ share price performance
 Seasonally higher chicken consumption towards the year-end,
30.0%
24.8%
25.0%
supported by economic reopening. Based on the latest Google mobility
index, the nation’s retail activities have recovered over the past month, and
20.0%

15.0%
are only 4% below pre-pandemic levels. Given the short shelf life of chicken
10.0%
inventories, previous movement control measures significantly lowered
5.0%
broiler farm gate prices, which led to the Government increasing the culling
mandate. The reopening of the economy could reduce the culling rate and 0.0%

support broiler prices – which would then widen feed sales volumes (higher -5.0% -2.5%

absolute EBITDA for feed) and broiler/DOC margins. -10.0% -8.4%

-15.0%

 Better earnings visibility ahead, higher inter-segment sales. Inter- JPFA CPIN Sector Weighted

segment sales for Charoen Pokphand Indonesia (CPIN) and JPFA grew by Source: Bloomberg, RHB
5-7ppts YoY for feed and 9% for DOC in 1H21. This indicates more broiler
farmers are seeking to become plasma farmers for security (ie better fixed
margins) amidst highly uncertain conditions – as the imposition of
movement restrictions could result in volatile chicken prices. 61% and 70%
of CPIN’s feed and DOC revenue are generated from inter-segment/plasma
farmers (vs 54% and 61% for JPFA). Higher inter-segment sales translate
to better earnings visibility, which could warrant a sector P/E rerating, in our
view. Recently, the Trade Ministry asked industry players to cap DOC prices
at IDR6,000 for farmers, as broiler prices are still at IDR19,000/kg as guided
by the Government. As such, the Government has also discouraged
companies from increasing feed prices. This negative sentiment should
provide a good entry point, when there is a sell-off in the sector – since the
Government’s stance on feed prices is only a recommendation, and there
will be no penalty given for farmers who lift feed prices. The poultry sector’s
2H21 earnings may likely still be supported by higher chicken prices, as
economic activities recover.

Target % Upside P/E (x) P/B (x) ROAE (%) Yield (%)
Company Name Rating
(IDR) (Downside) Dec-21F Dec-21F Dec-21F Dec-21F
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Neutral 6,900 10.4 20.3 3.8 20.0 1.4
Japfa Comfeed Buy 2,750 45.5 8.7 1.7 21.2 1.0
P/E (x) P/B (x) ROAE (%) Yield (%)

Source: Company data, RHB


Dec-21F
20.3 Dec-21F
3.8 Dec-21F
0.2 Dec-21F
0.0
8.7 1.7 0.2 0.0

See important disclosures at the end of this report


1
Indonesia Poultry Indonesia Sector Update
4 October 2021 Consumer Non-cyclical | Poultry

Figure 1: Culling timeline in 2021


% to Pre-culling ASP Post-culling ASP
No Start Date End Date Description
population/week 1 Week (IDR) 1 Week (IDR)
3 Feb 2021 Culling 69.4m Hatching Eggs (HE) 18.5% 20,300 21,000
1 5 Jan 2021
15 Jan 2021 Culling 50 weeks Parent Stock (PS) of 2.3m 20,300 21,000
2 5 Feb 2021 06 Mar 2021 Culling 56.5m DOC FS 19.0% 19,800 21,400
3 7 Mar 2021 10 Apr 2021 Culling 57.8m FE 19.0% 19,500 21,600
4 24 Mar 2021 08 May 2021 Culling 41.4m FE 11.0% 21,600 23,500
03 Jul 2021 Culling 50.5m DOC FS eggs 18.0%
5 5 Jun 2021 PS can produce eggs only up to 58 weeks, keep 19,500 22,500
31 Dec 2021
the chickens up to 62 weeks.
11 Aug 2021 Culling 71.2m DOC FS eggs 22.8%
6 10 Jul 2021 18,000 19,500
14 Aug 2021 Breeders are required to absorb 30.9m oversupply
04 Sep 2021 Culling HE aged 19 days, 96m eggs 30.8%
7 07 Aug 2021 PS can produce eggs only up to 58 weeks, keep 16,500 17,500
04 Sep 2021
the chicken up to 62 weeks.
02 Oct 2021 Culling HE aged 19 days, 75.6m eggs 25.3%
8 8 Sep 2021 PS can produce eggs only up to 58 weeks, keep 20,000 22,000
31 Dec 2021
the chicken up to 62 weeks.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, RHB

Figure 2: Culling rate to population

% to population
35%  The culling rate peaked in the seventh
31% round, between 7 Aug and 4 Sep. This
30% was due to soft broiler ASPs

25%
25%  The culling rate was at its lowest during
23% fourth round (24 Mar-8 May), as broiler
19% 19%
prices were at a peak during Ramadan
20% 19% 18%

15%
11%
10%

5%

0%
1st Culling 2nd Culling 3rd Culling 4th Culling 5th Culling 6th Culling 7th Culling 8th Culling
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, RHB

Figure 3: Broiler prices in Java


IDR/KG

 Broiler
27,000
prices began recovering in
25,000 24,700
24,500
August, after the Government mandated
23,000
the highest culling rate in this year, at
21,700
20,300
45%
21,500
21,000 21,000
 Broiler prices are currently at around
19,000
19,500 IDR20,500/kg
17,000
16,500 16,500

15,000

13,000
12,500

11,000
10,000
9,000
Oct-19

Jan-20

Mar-20
Apr-20

Jun-20

Oct-20
Jul-20

Jan-21

Mar-21
Apr-21
Aug-20

Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-19

Nov-19
Dec-19

Feb-20

May-20

Sep-20

Nov-20
Dec-20

Feb-21

May-21

Sep-21

Source: Arboge, RHB

See important disclosures at the end of this report


2
(x)

-
3.0
6.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
21.0
24.0
27.0

9.0
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar- 17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17

Rolling PER
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
4 October 2021

Nov-17
Dec-17

Source: Bloomberg, RHB


Jan-18

mean
Feb-18
Mar- 18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Indonesia Poultry

Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18

+1stdev
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar- 19
Apr-19
Figure 4: JPFA’s 5-year P/E band

mean; 11.4x

May-19

+2stdev
Jun-19
+1stdev; 15.6x
+2stdev; 19.7x

Jul-19
-2stdev; 3.16x
-1stdev; 7.3x

Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19

-1stdev
Jan-20
Feb-20

See important disclosures at the end of this report


Mar- 20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
-2stdev

Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar- 21
Apr-21
May-21
Linear (mean)

Jun-21
Jul-21
PE: 9.4x

Aug-21
Sep-21

3
(x)

7.0
11.0
15.0
19.0
23.0
27.0
31.0
35.0
39.0

Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jun-17
Rolling PER

Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Source: Bloomberg, RHB
mean

Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
mean; 21.9x
+1stdev; 29.0x

Sep-18
+2stdev, 36.0x

+1stdev

Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
+2stdev

May-19
Figure 5: CPIN’s 5-year P/E band

Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
-2stdev; 7.9x
-1stdev; 14.9x

Sep-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
+2stdev

Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jul-20
-2stdev

Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Linear (mean)

Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
PE = 19.9x
Indonesia Sector Update
Consumer Non-cyclical | Poultry
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Malaysia The analyst(s) who prepared this report, and their associates hereby, certify that:
Save as disclosed in the following link RHB Research conflict disclosures – Sep 2021 (1) they do not have any financial interest in the securities or other capital market
and to the best of our knowledge, RHBIB hereby declares that: products of the subject companies mentioned in this report, except for:
1. RHBIB does not have a financial interest in the securities or other capital market
products of the subject company(ies) covered in this report. Analyst Company
2. RHBIB is not a market maker in the securities or capital market products of the - -
subject company(ies) covered in this report.

5
(2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to
the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

KUALA LUMPUR JAKARTA


RHB Investment Bank Bhd PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia
Level 3A, Tower One, RHB Centre Revenue Tower, 11th Floor, District 8 - SCBD
Jalan Tun Razak Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav 52-53
Kuala Lumpur 50400 Jakarta 12190
Malaysia Indonesia
Tel : +603 9280 8888 Tel : +6221 509 39 888
Fax : +603 9200 2216 Fax : +6221 509 39 777

BANGKOK SINGAPORE
RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL RHB Bank Berhad (Singapore branch)
10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower 90 Cecil Street
98, North Sathorn Road, Silom #04-00 RHB Bank Building
Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Singapore 069531
Thailand Fax: +65 6509 0470
Tel: +66 2088 9999
Fax :+66 2088 9799

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